Search results for: Risk daily dose intake

Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: M. Moeinaddini, Z. Asadi-Shekari, M. Zaly Shah, A. Hamzah

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Currently, planners try to have more green travel options to decrease economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, this study tries to find significant urban travel factors to be used to increase the usage of alternative urban travel modes. This paper attempts to identify the relationship between prominent urban mobility indicators and daily trips by public transport in 30 cities from various parts of the world. Different travel modes, infrastructures and cost indicators were evaluated in this research as mobility indicators. The results of multi-linear regression analysis indicate that there is a significant relationship between mobility indicators and the daily usage of public transport.

Keywords: Green travel modes, urban travel indicators, daily trips by public transport, multi-linear regression analysis.

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Authors: P. Tanuska, A. Elias, P. Vazan, B. Zahradnikova

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This article describes the information system for measuring and evaluating the dose rate in the environment of nuclear power plants Mochovce and Bohunice in Slovakia. The article presents the results achieved in the implementation of the EU project – Research of monitoring and evaluation of nonstandard conditions in the area of nuclear power plants. The objectives included improving the system of acquisition, measuring and evaluating data with mobile and autonomous units applying new knowledge from research. The article provides basic and specific features of the system and compared to the previous version of the system, also new functions.

Keywords: Information system, dose rate, mobile devices, nuclear power plant.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: K. Krizova, R. Hela, S. Keprdova

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This paper introduces selected composition of conventional concretes and their resulting mechanical properties at different ages of concrete. With respect to utilization of mineral admixtures, fly ash and ground limestone agents were included in addition to pure Portland binder. The proposal of concrete composition remained constant in basic concrete components such as cement and representation of individual contents of aggregate fractions; weight dosing of admixtures and water dose were only modified. Water dose was chosen in order to achieve identical consistence by settlement for all proposals of concrete composition. Mechanical properties monitored include compression strength, static and dynamic modulus of concrete elasticity, at ages of 7, 28, 90, and 180 days.

Keywords: Cement, mineral admixtures, microstructure of concrete, mechanical properties.

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Authors: Fridhi Hadia, Soua Wadhah, Hidouri Ammar, Omri Ahmed

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In order to understand the auto-ignition process in a HCCI engine better, the influence of some important parameters on the auto-ignition is investigated. The inlet temperature, the inlet pressure, and the compression ratio were varied and their influence on the ignition delays and emission characteristics were studied. The inlet temperature was changed from 400 K to 460 K (in step of 15 K), the inlet pressure from 0.9 to 3 atm, while the compression ratio varied from 15 to 23. The fuel that was investigated is isooctane. The inlet temperature, the inlet pressure, and the compression ratio appeared to decrease the ignition delays, with the inlet pressure having the least influence and the compression ratio the most. The effect of these parameters on emissions’ characteristics were also investigated. Results indicate that increasing the compression ratio results in increasing the concentration of all the species.

Keywords: Compression Ratio, intake temperature, intake pressure, HCCI engine, isooctane.

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

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This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshi, Firas Al Janabi

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High resolution rain data are very important to fulfill the input of hydrological models. Among models of high-resolution rainfall data generation, the temporal disaggregation was chosen for this study. The paper attempts to generate three different rainfall resolutions (4-hourly, hourly and 10-minutes) from daily for around 20-year record period. The process was done by DiMoN tool which is based on random cascade model and method of fragment. Differences between observed and simulated rain dataset are evaluated with variety of statistical and empirical methods: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), usual statistics, and Exceedance probability. The tool worked well at preserving the daily rainfall values in wet days, however, the generated data are cumulated in a shorter time period and made stronger storms. It is demonstrated that the difference between generated and observed cumulative distribution function curve of 4-hourly datasets is passed the K-S test criteria while in hourly and 10-minutes datasets the P-value should be employed to prove that their differences were reasonable. The results are encouraging considering the overestimation of generated high-resolution rainfall data.

Keywords: DiMoN tool, disaggregation, exceedance probability, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, rainfall.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

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Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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Authors: Samar Saadeldin Abdelmotalab Omer, Ikram Mohamed Eltayeb Elsiddig, Amna Beshir Medani Ahmed, Saad Mohamed Hussein Ayoub

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Many herbal medicinal products are considered potential anti-hypercholesterolemic agents with encouraging safety profiles, however only a limited amount of clinical research exists to support their efficacy. The present study was designed to compare the antihypercholesterolemic and antioxidant activities of the crude ethanolic extracts of Citrus reticulata fruit peel, Zingiber officinale rhizome and Sesamum indicum seeds. Forty-five rats were used throughout the experiment which are extended for four weeks. These were divided into nine groups, five rats per each group as follows; group 1 was the normal control group (rats only fed standard normal rat diet), group 2 was the hypercholesterolemic control group (rats fed only hypercholesterolemic diet which contained 1% cholesterol plus 10% saturated animal fat added to the normal rat diet), groups 3 and 4 were fed hypercholesterolemic diet in addition to Citrus reticulata ethanolic extract at doses of (250mg/kg (group 3) and 500mg/kg (group 4)) administered daily via oral route, groups 5 and 6 were given hypercholesterolemic diet in addition to Zingiber officinale ethanolic extract at doses of (250mg/kg (group 5) and 500mg/kg (group 6)) daily through oral route, groups 7 and 8 fed on hypercholesterolemic diet in addition to Sesamum indicum ethanolic extract at doses of (250mg/kg (group 7) and 500mg/kg (group 8)) daily orally; and group 9 rats were given hypercholesterolemic diet in addition to atorvastatin (0.18mg/kg) daily via oral route as a standard reference antihypercholesterolemic drug. Blood samples from all groups were drawn from the retro-orbital venous plexus four weeks following treatment after overnight fasting and the lipid profile (total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels) were measured and the risk ratio (TC/HDL-C) was assessed. The antioxidant activity of the three plants extracts was determined using DPPH free-radical antioxidant assay. Results of in vivo and in vitro antihypercholesterolemic and antioxidant assay respectively, revealed that the three extracts possess comparable antioxidant and antihypercholesterolemic activities.

Keywords: Antihypercholesterolemic effects, Antioxidant activity, HDL, LDL, TC, TGs, Citrus reticulata, Sesamum indicum, Zingiber officinale.

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Authors: Marco Bötel, Tobias Gelau, Wendelin Gross

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Supply chain networks are frequently hit by unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up which supports effective operational responses in supply chain networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further embedded into a common risk management process. The paper provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the network related options for responsive actions and to determine the need for improving the reaction capabilities.

Keywords: Supply Chain Risk Management, Business Continuity Planning, Degrees of Freedom, Risk Management Process, Mitigation Measures.

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Authors: Fatih Tosunoğlu, İbrahim Can

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The flow duration curve (FDC) is an informative method that represents the flow regime’s properties for a river basin. Therefore, the FDC is widely used for water resource projects such as hydropower, water supply, irrigation and water quality management. The primary purpose of this study is to obtain synthetic daily flow duration curves for Çoruh Basin, Turkey. For this aim, we firstly developed univariate auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models for daily flows of 9 stations located in Çoruh basin and then these models were used to generate 100 synthetic flow series each having same size as historical series. Secondly, flow duration curves of each synthetic series were drawn and the flow values exceeded 10, 50 and 95% of the time and 95% confidence limit of these flows were calculated. As a result, flood, mean and low flows potential of Çoruh basin will comprehensively be represented.

Keywords: ARMA models, Çoruh basin, flow duration curve, Turkey.

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: Human vulnerabilities, human security, inert-immediate, material-immaterial, timespace.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

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This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Muhammad Waqar, Touqir Ahmad Afridi, Quratulain Soomro

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Radiation is a ghost causing unimaginable physical damage, but its harm is not inevitable. The panic created by previously reported worst-case scenarios i.e., Three Mile Island, Fukushima, Chernobyl, has adversely affected the attitude of radiation workers towards the profession. The psychological effect of radiation-related catastrophes creates an invisible barrier that reduces the efficiency of radiation workers. Careful handling and proper monitoring of radiation decreases the hazards of radiation and proves that the psychological impairment of radiation is myriad fold adverse than its physiological damage. Thermoluminescent Dosimeter (TLD) badges with unique identity numbers were provided to 36 radiation workers for a period of one year (2021). TLDs were read quarterly, and doses were recorded for every radiation worker. Annual doses were recorded and compared with national and international standards. Moreover, the period for which an individual worker is expected to reach one year limit of 20 mSv was also calculated. The highest radiation dose for the radiation worker in 2021 was found at 3.2 mSv, which was 16% of the permissible annual dose limit. The average occupational radiation doses ranged from 1.0 mSv to 3.20 mSv. 64% of the employees did not exceed the 10% of the annual limit, receiving less than 2 mSv. The least time for 20 mSv completion was found 6.25 years for the hot-lab technician. As a whole, the 20 mSv completion period ranged from 6.25 to 20 years. We concluded that the annual professional radiation doses were well within the permissible limits of Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The fear of radiation is unnecessary and it creates reluctance towards performing their assigned duties and it is also not favorable for the institute. It must be abolished through education and training sessions.

Keywords: TLD, thermoluminescent dosimeter, psychological impact, radiation dose, annual dose limit, PNRA, ICRP, IAEA.

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Authors: Mefleh S. Hamideen

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In this investigation, activity concentration of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K, of some ceramic tile materials used in the local market of Jordan for interior decoration were determined by making use of High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detector. Twenty samples of different country of origin and sizes used in Jordan were analyzed. The concentration values of the last-mentioned radionuclides ranged from 30 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from Jordan) to 98 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from China) for 226Ra, 31 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from Italy) to 98 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from China) for 232Th, and 129 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from Spain) to 679 Bq.kg-1 (Sample from Italy) for 40K. Based on the calculated activity concentrations, some radiological parameters have been calculated to test the radiation hazards in the ceramic tiles. In this work, the following parameters: Total absorbed dose rate (DR), Annual effective dose rate (HR), Radium equivalent activity (Raeq), Radon emanation coefficient F (%) and Radon mass exhalation rate (Em) were calculated for all ceramic tiles and listed in the body of the work. Fortunately, the average calculated values of all parameters are less than the recommended values for each parameter. Consequently, almost all the examined ceramic materials appear to have low radon emanation coefficients. As a result of that investigation, no problems on people can appear by using those ceramic tiles in Jordan.

Keywords: radon emanation coefficient, radon mass exhalation rate, total annual effective dose, radon level

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Authors: Mohamed Saad Ahmed Hussien

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This paper discusses the risk management in Islamic banks and aims to determine the difference in the practices and methods of risk management in those banks compared to the conventional banks, and to make a case study of the biggest Islamic bank in Egypt (Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt) to identify the most important financial risks faced and how to manage those risks. It was found that Islamic banks face two types of risks. The first type is similar to the risks in conventional banks; the second type is the additional risks which facing the Islamic banks only as a result of some Islamic modes of financing. With regard to the risk management, Islamic banks such as conventional banks applied the regulatory rules issued by the Central Banks and the Basel Committee; Islamic banks also applied the instructions and procedures issued by the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB). Also, Islamic banks are similar to the conventional banks in the practices and methods which they use to manage the risks. And there are some factors that may affect the risk management in Islamic banks, such as the size of the bank and the efficiency of the administration and the staff of the bank.

Keywords: Conventional banks, Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt, Islamic banks, risk management.

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Authors: Samira Berenji Ardestani, Hamid Reza Akhavan

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Gamma irradiation greatly reduces the potential microbiological risk of fresh fruits, resulting in improved microbial safety as well as extending their shelf life. The effects of 0.5-2 kGy gamma doses on some physicochemical, microbial and sensory properties of fresh barberry fruits (Berberis vulgaris) during refrigerated storage for 40 days were evaluated. The total anthocyanin and total phenolic contents of barberry fruits decreased in a dose-dependent manner immediately after irradiation and after subsequent storage. In general, it is recommended that, according to the effect of gamma radiation on physicochemical, microbial and sensorial characteristics, doses of 1.25-2 kGy could be used.

Keywords: Antioxidant property, barberry fruit, chemical properties, gamma irradiation.

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz, Seyma Ozbilge

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In this study, the clients who applied to a bank branch for loan were analyzed through data mining. The study was composed of the information such as amounts of loans received by personal and SME clients working with the bank branch, installment numbers, number of delays in loan installments, payments available in other banks and number of banks to which they are in debt between 2010 and 2013. The client risk profile was examined through Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, one of the decision tree classification methods. At the end of the study, 5 different types of customers have been determined on the decision tree. The classification of these types of customers has been created with the rating of those posing a risk for the bank branch and the customers have been classified according to the risk ratings.

Keywords: Client classification, loan suitability, risk rating, CART analysis, decision tree.

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Authors: Hai Huu Le, Paul Junor, Moshi Geso, Graeme O’Keefe

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In this paper, the authors propose a personal wearable directionally-sensitive radiation dosimeter using multiple semiconductor CdZnTe detectors. The proposed dosimeter not only measures the real-time dose rate but also provide the direction of the radioactive source. A linear relationship between radioactive source direction and the radiation intensity measured by each detectors is established and an equation to determine the source direction is derived by the authors. The efficiency and accuracy of the proposed dosimeter is verified by simulation using Geant4 package. Results have indicated that in a measurement duration of about 7 seconds, the proposed dosimeter was able to estimate the direction of a 10μCi 137/55Cs radioactive source to within 2 degrees.

Keywords: Dose rate, Geant4 package, radiation detectors, radioactive source direction.

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Authors: P. Pongsumpun

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The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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Authors: D. Jakovčević, M. Mihelja Žaja

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence and relative share of underwriting risks in explaining the variation in insurance cycles in subsequent periods. Through the insurance contracts they underwrite, insurance companies assume risks. Underwriting risks include pricing risk, reserve risk, reinsurance risk and occurrence risk. These risks pose major risks for property and liability insurers, and therefore their impact on the insurance cycle is important. The main goal of this paper is to determine the relative proportion of underwriting risks in explaining the variation of insurance cycle. In order to fulfill the main goal of the paper vector autoregressive model, VAR, will be applied.

Keywords: Insurance cycle, insurance risks, combined ratio, Republic of Croatia.

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Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

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A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, W. Y. Cheng, J. S. Yeh, S. W. Chen, Y. M. Ferng, J. H. Yang, W. S. Hsu, C. Shih

Abstract:

To understand the risk for dry storage concrete casks in the cask loading, transfer, and storage phase, the purpose of this research is to establish the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analysis methodology for dry storage concrete casks by using SAPHIRE 8 code. This analysis methodology is used to perform the study of Taiwan nuclear power plants (NPPs) dry storage system. The process of research has three steps. First, the data of the concrete casks and Taiwan NPPs are collected. Second, the PRA analysis methodology is developed by using SAPHIRE 8. Third, the PRA analysis is performed by using this methodology. According to the analysis results, the maximum risk is the multipurpose canister (MPC) drop case.

Keywords: PRA, Dry storage, concrete cask, SAPHIRE.

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflected the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: Food Risk Assessment, FMEA, Human Factor.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Eduard Bakos, Jiri Dvorak, Alena Bumbova, Lenka Jesonkova

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The case study deals with the semi-quantitative risk assessment of water resource earmarked for the emergency supply of population with drinking water. The risk analysis has been based on previously identified hazards/sensitivities of the elements of hydrogeological structure and technological equipment of ground water resource as well as on the assessment of the levels of hazard, sensitivity and criticality of individual resource elements in the form of point indexes. The following potential sources of hazard have been considered: natural disasters caused by atmospheric and geological changes, technological hazards, and environmental burdens. The risk analysis has proved that the assessed risks are acceptable and the water resource may be integrated into a crisis plan of a given region.

Keywords: Crisis, emergency, frequency, ground water, hazard, point index, risk, sensitivity, water supply.

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Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee

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This study aims to assess the vulnerability and risk of the coastal areas of Taijiang to abnormal oceanographic phenomena. In addition, this study aims to investigate and collect data regarding the disaster losses, land utilization, and other social, economic, and environmental issues in these coastal areas to construct a coastal vulnerability and risk map based on the obtained climate-change risk assessment results. Considering the indexes of the three coastal vulnerability dimensions, namely, man-made facilities, environmental geography, and social economy, this study adopted the equal weighting process and Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze the vulnerability of these coastal areas to disasters caused by climatic changes. Among the areas with high coastal vulnerability to climatic changes, three towns had the highest coastal vulnerability and four had the highest relative vulnerability. Areas with lower disaster risks were found to be increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by climatic changes as time progresses.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal disaster, risk, vulnerability

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