Search results for: Reasoning under uncertainty

Authors: Hooriya Sadr Dadras, Shiva Seyed Erfani

Abstract:

Speaking skills merit meticulous attention both on the side of the learners and the teachers. In particular, accuracy is a critical component to guarantee the messages to be conveyed through conversation because a wrongful change may adversely alter the content and purpose of the talk. Different types of tasks have served teachers to meet numerous educational objectives. Besides, negotiation of meaning and the use of different strategies have been areas of concern in socio-cultural theories of SLA. Negotiation of meaning is among the conversational processes which have a crucial role in facilitating the understanding and expression of meaning in a given second language. Conversational strategies are used during interaction when there is a breakdown in communication that leads to the interlocutor attempting to remedy the gap through talk. Therefore, this study was an attempt to investigate if there was any significant difference between the effect of reasoning gap tasks and information gap tasks on the frequency of conversational strategies used in negotiation of meaning in classrooms on one hand, and on the accuracy in speaking of Iranian intermediate EFL learners on the other. After a pilot study to check the practicality of the treatments, at the outset of the main study, the Preliminary English Test was administered to ensure the homogeneity of 87 out of 107 participants who attended the intact classes of a 15 session term in one control and two experimental groups. Also, speaking sections of PET were used as pretest and posttest to examine their speaking accuracy. The tests were recorded and transcribed to estimate the percentage of the number of the clauses with no grammatical errors in the total produced clauses to measure the speaking accuracy. In all groups, the grammatical points of accuracy were instructed and the use of conversational strategies was practiced. Then, different kinds of reasoning gap tasks (matchmaking, deciding on the course of action, and working out a time table) and information gap tasks (restoring an incomplete chart, spot the differences, arranging sentences into stories, and guessing game) were manipulated in experimental groups during treatment sessions, and the students were required to practice conversational strategies when doing speaking tasks. The conversations throughout the terms were recorded and transcribed to count the frequency of the conversational strategies used in all groups. The results of statistical analysis demonstrated that applying both the reasoning gap tasks and information gap tasks significantly affected the frequency of conversational strategies through negotiation. In the face of the improvements, the reasoning gap tasks had a more significant impact on encouraging the negotiation of meaning and increasing the number of conversational frequencies every session. The findings also indicated both task types could help learners significantly improve their speaking accuracy. Here, applying the reasoning gap tasks was more effective than the information gap tasks in improving the level of learners’ speaking accuracy.

Keywords: Accuracy in speaking, conversational strategies, information gap tasks, reasoning gap tasks.

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Authors: Yue Wang, Jixin Ma, Brian Knight

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This paper presents a visualized computer aided case tool for non-expert, called Visual Time, for representing and reasoning about incomplete and uncertain temporal information. It is both expressive and versatile, allowing logical conjunctions and disjunctions of both absolute and relative temporal relations, such as “Before”, “Meets”, “Overlaps”, “Starts”, “During”, and “Finishes”, etc. In terms of a visualized framework, Visual Time provides a user-friendly environment for describing scenarios with rich temporal structure in natural language, which can be formatted as structured temporal phrases and modeled in terms of Temporal Relationship Diagrams (TRD). A TRD can be automatically and visually transformed into a corresponding Time Graph, supported by automatic consistency checker that derives a verdict to confirm if a given scenario is temporally consistent or inconsistent.

Keywords: Time Visualization, Uncertainty, Incompleteness, Consistency Checking.

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Authors: Ang Ling Weay, Mona Masood

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This paper discusses the potential benefits of an interactive multimedia information representation in enhancing students’ critical thinking aligned with history reasoning in learning history amongst Secondary School students in Malaysia. Two modes of multimedia information representation were implemented; chronologic and thematic information representations. A qualitative study of an unstructured interview was conducted among two history teachers, one history education lecturer, two i-think experts, and five students from Form Four secondary school. The interview was to elicit their opinions on the implementation of thinking maps and interactive multimedia information representation in history learning. The key elements of the interactive multimedia (e.g. multiple media, user control, interactivity and use of timelines and concept maps) were then considered to improve the learning process. Findings of the preliminary investigation reveal that the interactive multimedia information representations have the potential benefits to be implemented as an instructional resource in enhancing students’ higher order thinking skills (HOTs). This paper concludes by giving suggestions for future work.

Keywords: Multimedia Information Representation, Critical Thinking, History Reasoning, Chronological and Thematic Information Representation.

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Authors: Apkar Salatian

Abstract:

To relieve the burden of reasoning on a point to point basis, in many domains there is a need to reduce large and noisy data sets into trends for qualitative reasoning. In this paper we propose and describe a new architectural design pattern called REDUCER for reducing large and noisy data sets that can be tailored for particular situations. REDUCER consists of 2 consecutive processes: Filter which takes the original data and removes outliers, inconsistencies or noise; and Compression which takes the filtered data and derives trends in the data. In this seminal article we also show how REDUCER has successfully been applied to 3 different case studies.

Keywords: Design Pattern, filtering, compression.

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Authors: B. Chemali, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: Correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response.

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Authors: Chung-Seong Hong, Hyung-Sun Kim, Joonmyun Cho, Hyun Kyu Cho, Hyun-Chan Lee

Abstract:

To realize the vision of ubiquitous computing, it is important to develop a context-aware infrastructure which can help ubiquitous agents, services, and devices become aware of their contexts because such computational entities need to adapt themselves to changing situations. A context-aware infrastructure manages the context model representing contextual information and provides appropriate information. In this paper, we introduce Context-Aware Middleware for URC System (hereafter CAMUS) as a context-aware infrastructure for a network-based intelligent robot system and discuss the ontology-based context modeling and reasoning approach which is used in that infrastructure.

Keywords: CAMUS, Context-Aware, Context Model, Ontology.

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Authors: Zbigniew Les, Magdalena Les

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Intelligence tests are series of tasks designed to measure the capacity to make abstractions, to learn, and to deal with novel situations. Testing of the visual abilities of the shape understanding system (SUS) is performed based on the visual intelligence tests. In this paper the progressive matrices tests are formulated as tasks given to SUS. These tests require good visual problem solving abilities of the human subject. SUS solves these tests by performing complex visual reasoning transforming the visual forms (tests) into the string forms. The experiment proved that the proposed method, which is part of the SUS visual understanding abilities, can solve a test that is very difficult for human subject.

Keywords: Shape understanding, intelligence test, visual concept, visual reasoning.

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Authors: J. Kloypayan, W. Pimpakan

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The pipe taper thread measurement and uncertainty  normally used the four-wire probe according to the JIS B 0262.  Besides, according to the EA-10/10 standard, the pipe thread could be  measured using the three-wire probe. This research proposed to use  the three-wire probe measuring the pitch diameter of the pipe taper  thread. The measuring accessory component was designed and made,  then, assembled to one side of the ULM 828 CiM machine.  Therefore, this machine could be used to measure and calibrate both  the pipe thread and the pipe taper thread. The equations and the  expanded uncertainty for pitch diameter measurement were  formulated. After the experiment, the results showed that the pipe  taper thread had the pitch diameter equal to 19.165mm and the  expanded uncertainty equal to 1.88µm. Then, the experiment results  were compared to the results from the National Institute of Metrology  Thailand. The equivalence ratio from the comparison showed that  both results were related. Thus, the proposed method of using the  three-wire probe measured the pitch diameter of the pipe taper thread  was acceptable.

Keywords: Pipe taper thread, Three-wire probe, Measure and Calibration, The Universal length measuring machine.

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Authors: M. Rodionov, Z. Dedovets

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This article discusses plausible reasoning use for solution to practical problems. Such reasoning is the major driver of motivation and implementation of mathematical, scientific and educational research activity. A general, practical problem solving algorithm is presented which includes an analysis of specific problem content to build, solve and interpret the underlying mathematical model. The author explores the role of practical problems such as the stimulation of students' interest, the development of their world outlook and their orientation in the modern world at the different stages of learning mathematics in secondary school. Particular attention is paid to the characteristics of those problems which were systematized and presented in the conclusions.

Keywords: Mathematics, motivation, secondary school, student, practical problem.

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Authors: O. Matarazzo, L. Abbamonte, G. Nigro

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This study aimed at assessing whether and to what extent moral judgment and behaviour were: 1. situation-dependent; 2. selectively dependent on cognitive and affective components; 3. influenced by gender and age; 4. reciprocally congruent. In order to achieve these aims, four different types of moral dilemmas were construed and five types of thinking were presented for each of them – representing five possible ways to evaluate the situation. The judgment criteria included selfishness, altruism, sense of justice, and the conflict between selfishness and the two moral issues. The participants were 250 unpaid volunteers (50% male; 50% female) belonging to two age-groups: young people and adults. The study entailed a 2 (gender) x 2 (age-group) x 5 (type of thinking) x 4 (situation) mixed design: the first two variables were betweensubjects, the others were within-subjects. Results have shown that: 1. moral judgment and behaviour are at least partially affected by the type of situations and by interpersonal variables such as gender and age; 2. moral reasoning depends in a similar manner on cognitive and affective factors; 3. there is not a gender polarity between the ethic of justice and the ethic of cure/ altruism; 4. moral reasoning and behavior are perceived as reciprocally congruent even though their congruence decreases with a more objective assessment. Such results were discussed in the light of contrasting theories on morality.

Keywords: Contextual-pragmatic approach to morality, ethic ofcare, ethic of justice, Kohlbergian approach, moral behaviour, moralreasoning.

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Authors: Maqbool Hussain Sial, Maaida Hussain Hashmi, Sofia Anwar

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The present research was focused to investigate the role of investment in the course of economic growth with reference to Pakistan. The study analyzed the role of the public and private investment and impact of the political and macroeconomic uncertainty on economic growth of Pakistan by using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). In long-run both public and private investment showed a positive impact on economic growth but the growth was largely driven by private investment as compared to public investment. Government consumption expenditure, economic uncertainty and political instability hampered the economic growth of Pakistan. In short-run the private investment positively influences the growth but there was negative and insignificant effect of the public investment and government consumption expenditure on the growth. There was a positive relationship found between economic uncertainty (proxy for inflation) and GDP in short run.

Keywords: Investment, Government Consumption, Growth, Co-integration, Pakistan.

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: Yi Xu, Zexiang Li

Abstract:

In inspection and workpiece localization, sampling point data is an important issue. Since the devices for sampling only sample discrete points, not the completely surface, sampling size and location of the points will be taken into consideration. In this paper a method is presented for determining the sampled points size and location for achieving efficient sampling. Firstly, uncertainty analysis of the localization parameters is investigated. A localization uncertainty model is developed to predict the uncertainty of the localization process. Using this model the minimum size of the sampled points is predicted. Secondly, based on the algebra theory an eigenvalue-optimal optimization is proposed. Then a freeform surface is used in the simulation. The proposed optimization is implemented. The simulation result shows its effectivity.

Keywords: eigenvalue-optimal optimization, freeform surface inspection, sampling size and location, sampled points.

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Authors: Takayuki Shiina

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Mathematical programming has been applied to various problems. For many actual problems, the assumption that the parameters involved are deterministic known data is often unjustified. In such cases, these data contain uncertainty and are thus represented as random variables, since they represent information about the future. Decision-making under uncertainty involves potential risk. Stochastic programming is a commonly used method for optimization under uncertainty. A stochastic programming problem with recourse is referred to as a two-stage stochastic problem. In this study, we consider a stochastic programming problem with simple integer recourse in which the value of the recourse variable is restricted to a multiple of a nonnegative integer. The algorithm of a dynamic slope scaling procedure for solving this problem is developed by using a property of the expected recourse function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is quite efficient. The stochastic programming model defined in this paper is quite useful for a variety of design and operational problems.

Keywords: stochastic programming problem with recourse, simple integer recourse, dynamic slope scaling procedure

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghamiri Esfahani, Mohammad Karkon, Seyed Majid Hosseini Nezhad, Reza Hosseini-Ara

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In this study, the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of a plate on free vibration response is investigated. For this purpose, the elastic modulus of the plate is modeled as stochastic variable with normal distribution. Moreover, the distance autocorrelation function is used for stochastic field. Then, by applying the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic finite element relations are extracted. Finally, with a numerical test, the effect of uncertainty in the elastic modulus on free vibration response of a plate is studied. The results show that the effect of uncertainty in elastic modulus of the plate cannot play an important role on the free vibration response.

Keywords: Stochastic finite elements, plate bending, free vibration, Monte Carlo, Neumann expansion method.

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Authors: J.L. Castro, K. Benghazi, M.V. Hurtado, M. Navarro, J.M. Zurita

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Nowadays, quick technological changes force companies to develop innovative products in an increasingly competitive environment. Therefore, how to enhance the time of new product development is very important. This design problem often lacks the exact formula for getting it, and highly depends upon human designers- past experiences. For these reasons, in this work, a Casebased reasoning (CBR) system to assist in new product development is proposed. When a case is recovered from the case base, the system will take into account not only the attribute-s specific value and how important it is. It will also take into account if the attribute has a positive influence over the product development. Hence the manufacturing time will be improved. This information will be introduced as a new concept called “adaptability". An application to this method for hearing instrument new design illustrates the proposed approach.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Fuzzy logic, New product development, Retrieval stage, Similarity.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

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In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Aircraft have different capabilities and specifications according to the required strategic goals and objectives in operations. With various types on the market with different aircraft characteristics, it becomes difficult to select a suitable aircraft for certain operations and requirements. The entropy weighting method (EWM) is a useful, highly consistent, and reliable method for obtaining the weights of the criteria and is worth integrating with the decision uncertainty distance (DUD) method, which is more applicable and requires less computation than other methods. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the validity and usability of the proposed methodology. Comparing the ranking results matches the distance-based approach, which is the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, which shows the robustness of the entropy DUD hybrid method. Validity analysis shows that the proposed hybrid multiple criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) methodology is quantitatively stable and reliable.

Keywords: aircraft selection, decision uncertainty distance (DUD), multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS

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Authors: Nedjima Mouhoubi, Souad Sassi Boudemagh

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In this paper, we will try to demonstrate the importance of the project approach in the urban to deal with uncertainty, the importance of the involvement of all stakeholders in the urban project process and that the absence of an actor can lead to project failure but also the importance of the urban project management. These points are handled through the following questions: Does the urban adhere to the theory of complexity? Does the project approach bring hope and solution to make urban planning "sustainable"? How converging visions of actors for the same project? Is the management of urban project the solution to support the urban project approach?

Keywords: Strategic planning, project, urban project stakeholders, management.

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Authors: H. Ashrafi, S. Ebrahimi, H. Kamalzadeh

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With the development of business competition, it is important for healthcare providers to improve their service qualities. In order to improve service quality of a clinic, four important dimensions are defined: tangibles, responsiveness, empathy, and reliability. Moreover, there are several service stages in hospitals such as financial screening and examination. One of the most challenging limitations for improving service quality is budget which impressively affects the service quality. In this paper, we present an approach to address budget uncertainty and provide guidelines for service resource allocation. In this paper, a service quality improvement approach is proposed which can be adopted to multistage service processes to improve service quality, while controlling the costs. A multi-objective function based on the importance of each area and dimension is defined to link operational variables to service quality dimensions. The results demonstrate that our approach is not ultra-conservative and it shows the actual condition very well. Moreover, it is shown that different strategies can affect the number of employees in different stages.

Keywords: Service quality assessment, healthcare resource allocation, robust optimization, budget uncertainty.

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Authors: Sukrit Shankar, Chetana Shanta Patsa, Jaydev Sharma

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Fractional Fourier Transform is a generalization of the classical Fourier Transform which is often symbolized as the rotation in time- frequency plane. Similar to the product of time and frequency span which provides the Uncertainty Principle for the classical Fourier domain, there has not been till date an Uncertainty Principle for the Fractional Fourier domain for a generalized class of finite energy signals. Though the lower bound for the product of time and Fractional Fourier span is derived for the real signals, a tighter lower bound for a general class of signals is of practical importance, especially for the analysis of signals containing chirps. We hence formulate a mathematical derivation that gives the lower bound of time and Fractional Fourier span product. The relation proves to be utmost importance in taking the Fractional Fourier Transform with adaptive time and Fractional span resolutions for a varied class of complex signals.

Keywords: Fractional Fourier Transform, uncertainty principle, Fractional Fourier Span, amplitude, phase.

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Authors: R.K.Tuli

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In the present communication, we have studied different variations in the entropy measures in the different states of queueing processes. In case of steady state queuing process, it has been shown that as the arrival rate increases, the uncertainty increases whereas in the case of non-steady birth-death process, it is shown that the uncertainty varies differently. In this pattern, it first increases and attains its maximum value and then with the passage of time, it decreases and attains its minimum value.

Keywords: Entropy, Birth-death process, M/G/1 system, G/M/1system, Steady state, Non-steady state

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Authors: Denis Trcek

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Trust is essential for further and wider acceptance of contemporary e-services. It was first addressed almost thirty years ago in Trusted Computer System Evaluation Criteria standard by the US DoD. But this and other proposed approaches of that period were actually solving security. Roughly some ten years ago, methodologies followed that addressed trust phenomenon at its core, and they were based on Bayesian statistics and its derivatives, while some approaches were based on game theory. However, trust is a manifestation of judgment and reasoning processes. It has to be dealt with in accordance with this fact and adequately supported in cyber environment. On the basis of the results in the field of psychology and our own findings, a methodology called qualitative algebra has been developed, which deals with so far overlooked elements of trust phenomenon. It complements existing methodologies and provides a basis for a practical technical solution that supports management of trust in contemporary computing environments. Such solution is also presented at the end of this paper.

Keywords: internet security, trust management, multi-agent systems, reasoning and judgment, modeling and simulation, qualitativealgebra

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Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xiu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu

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In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.

Keywords: Financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning.

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Authors: Ali Ameur Haj Salah, Tarek Garna, Hassani Messaoud

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This paper attempts to define the validity domain of LSDP (Loop Shaping Design Procedure) controller system, by determining the suitable uncertainty region, so that linear system be stable. Indeed the LSDP controller cannot provide stability for any perturbed system. For this, we will use the gap metric tool that is introduced into the control literature for studying robustness properties of feedback systems with uncertainty. A 2nd order electric linear system example is given to define the validity domain of LSDP controller and effectiveness gap metric.

Keywords: LSDP, Gap metric, Robust Control.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: E. A. Tkachenko, E. M. Rogova, V. V. Klimov

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One of the basic issues of development management is connected with performance measurement as a prerequisite for identifying the achievement of development objectives. The aim of our research is to develop an improved model of assessing a company’s development results. The model should take into account the cyclical nature of development and the high degree of uncertainty in dealing with numerous management tasks. Our hypotheses may be formulated as follows: Hypothesis 1. The cycle of a company’s development may be studied from the standpoint of a project cycle. To do that, methods and tools of project analysis are to be used. Hypothesis 2. The problem of the uncertainty when justifying managerial decisions within the framework of a company’s development cycle can be solved through the use of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic. The reasoned justification of the validity of the hypotheses made is given in the suggested article. The fuzzy logic toolkit applies to the case of technology shift within an enterprise. It is proven that some restrictions in performance measurement that are incurred to conventional methods could be eliminated by implementation of the fuzzy logic apparatus in performance measurement models.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, fuzzy sets, performance measurement, project analysis.

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Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

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Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: Process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis.

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