Search results for: Rainfall frequency

Authors: Chia Lin Chan, Yi Ju Yang, Chih Chin Yang

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Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall frequency of one hour rainfall duration is more than 100-year frequency which exceeds the flood detention standard of 20-year frequency for the flood detention pond, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is 1.7 hours at most even though the flood detention pond with maximum drainage potential about 15.0 m3/s of pumping system is constructed. If the rainfall peak current is more than maximum drainage potential, the flood peak duration of flood detention pond is about 1.9 hours at most. The flood detention pond is the key factor of stable drainage control and flood prevention. The critical factors of flood disaster is not only rainfall mass, but also rainfall frequency of heavy storm in different rainfall duration and flood detention frequency of flood detention system.

Keywords: Rainfall frequency, Rainfall duration, Rainfallintensity, Flood detention capability

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Authors: C. Y. Chen

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As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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Authors: Th. Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analyzed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on Z^DIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, Serial correlation, Mann Kendall test.

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Authors: S. Dan'azumi, S. Shamsudin, A. A. Rahman

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Rainfall data at fine resolution and knowledge of its characteristics plays a major role in the efficient design and operation of agricultural, telecommunication, runoff and erosion control as well as water quality control systems. The paper is aimed to study the statistical distribution of hourly rainfall depth for 12 representative stations spread across Peninsular Malaysia. Hourly rainfall data of 10 to 22 years period were collected and its statistical characteristics were estimated. Three probability distributions namely, Generalized Pareto, Exponential and Gamma distributions were proposed to model the hourly rainfall depth, and three goodness-of-fit tests, namely, Kolmogorov-Sminov, Anderson-Darling and Chi-Squared tests were used to evaluate their fitness. Result indicates that the east cost of the Peninsular receives higher depth of rainfall as compared to west coast. However, the rainfall frequency is found to be irregular. Also result from the goodness-of-fit tests show that all the three models fit the rainfall data at 1% level of significance. However, Generalized Pareto fits better than Exponential and Gamma distributions and is therefore recommended as the best fit.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, Hourly rainfall, Malaysia, Probability distribution.

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Authors: Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman

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Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in subhourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two nonparametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6, 12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10% level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12 hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations (e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments and smaller sub-divisions.

Keywords: Climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania.

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Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee

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In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.

Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.

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Authors: Sarisa Pinkham, Kanyarat Bussaban

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The research aims to approximate the amount of daily rainfall by using a pixel value data approach. The daily rainfall maps from the Thailand Meteorological Department in period of time from January to December 2013 were the data used in this study. The results showed that this approach can approximate the amount of daily rainfall with RMSE=3.343.

Keywords: Daily rainfall, Image processing, Approximation, Pixel value data.

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Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel

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In this work, long-term spatiotemporal changes in rainfall are investigated and assessed at the meteorological divisional level using whole-year data from Rajasthan, India. Data from each of the district's eight tehsils are studied to see how the rainfall pattern has altered over the last 10 years.  We primarily compare information from the Jaipur district in Rajasthan, India, at the tehsil level. We looked at the full year, and from January to December, there was constantly more rain than any other month.  Furthermore, we compare the research of annual and monthly rainfall. Havey rainfall is also shown for two months, July and August.

Keywords: Climate change, temperature, seasonal monsoons, rainfall variability.

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Authors: A. Moussouni, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

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The study concerns an experimental investigation in the laboratory of the water erosion using a rainfall simulator. We have focused our attention on the influence of rainfall intensity on some hydraulic characteristics. The results obtained allow us to conclude that there is a significant correlation between rainfall intensity and hydraulic characteristics of runoff (Reynolds number, Froude number) and sediment concentration.

Keywords: Laboratory experiments, rainfall intensity, rainfall simulator, runoff, sediment concentration, soil erosion

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall.

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Authors: S. Sarumathi, N. Shanthi, S. Vidhya

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In the present world, predicting rainfall is considered to be an essential and also a challenging task. Normally, the climate and rainfall are presumed to have non-linear as well as intricate phenomena. For predicting accurate rainfall, we necessitate advanced computer modeling and simulation. When there is an enhanced understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation then it becomes enrichment to applications such as hydrologic, climatic and ecological. Conversely, there may be some kind of challenges occur in the community due to some application which results in the absence of consistent precipitation observation in remote and also emerging region. This survey paper provides a multifarious collection of methodologies which are epitomized by various researchers for predicting the rainfall. It also gives information about some technique to forecast rainfall, which is appropriate to all methods like numerical, traditional and statistical.

Keywords: Satellite Image, Segmentation, Feature Extraction, Classification, Clustering, Precipitation Estimation.

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Authors: M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Hasan, M. Alauddin, S. Akhter

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Climate change has become a major concern across the world as the intensity along with quantity of the rainfall, mean surface temperature and other climatic parameters have been changed not only in Bangladesh but also in the entire globe. Bangladesh has already experienced many natural hazards. Among them changing of rainfall pattern, erratic and heavy rainfalls are very common. But changes of rainfall pattern and its amount is still in question to some extent. This study aimed to unfold how the historical rainfalls varied over time and how would be their future trends. In this context, historical rainfall data (1975-2014) were collected from Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) and then a time series model was developed using Box-Jenkins algorithm in IBM SPSS to forecast the future rainfall. From the historical data analysis, this study revealed that the amount of rainfall decreased over the time and shifted to the post monsoons. Forecasted rainfall shows that the pre-monsoon and early monsoon will get drier in future whereas late monsoon and post monsoon will show huge fluctuations in rainfall magnitudes with temporal variations which means Bangladesh will get comparatively drier seasons in future which may be a serious problem for the country as it depends on agriculture.

Keywords: Monsoon, Pre-monsoon, rainfall, pattern, variations, IBM-SPSS.

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Authors: Priti Kaushik, Randhir Singh Baghel, Somil Khandelwal

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This study uses whole-year data from Rajasthan, India, at the meteorological divisional level to analyze and evaluate long-term spatiotemporal trends in rainfall and looked at the data from each of the thirteen tehsils in the Jaipur district to see how the rainfall pattern has altered over the last 10 years. Data on daily rainfall from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in Jaipur are available for the years 2012 through 2021. We mainly focus on comparing data of tehsil wise in the Jaipur district, Rajasthan, India. Also analyzed is the fact that July and August always see higher rainfall than any other month. Rainfall usually starts to rise around week 25th and peaks in weeks 32nd or 33rd. They showed that on several occasions, 2017 saw the least amount of rainfall during a long span of 10 years. The greatest rain fell between 2012 and 2021 in 2013, 2019, and 2020.

Keywords: Data analysis, extreme events, rainfall, descriptive case studies, precipitation temperature.

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Authors: Y. Lu, X. S. Qin

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Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.

Keywords: Rainfall disaggregation, statistical properties, poisson processed, Bartlett-Lewis model, Neyman-Scott model.

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Authors: N. Samarinas, C. Evangelides, C. Vrekos

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The aim of this paper is the comparison of three different methods, in order to produce fuzzy tolerance relations for rainfall data classification. More specifically, the three methods are correlation coefficient, cosine amplitude and max-min method. The data were obtained from seven rainfall stations in the region of central Greece and refers to 20-year time series of monthly rainfall height average. Three methods were used to express these data as a fuzzy relation. This specific fuzzy tolerance relation is reformed into an equivalence relation with max-min composition for all three methods. From the equivalence relation, the rainfall stations were categorized and classified according to the degree of confidence. The classification shows the similarities among the rainfall stations. Stations with high similarity can be utilized in water resource management scenarios interchangeably or to augment data from one to another. Due to the complexity of calculations, it is important to find out which of the methods is computationally simpler and needs fewer compositions in order to give reliable results.

Keywords: Classification, fuzzy logic, tolerance relations, rainfall data.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel, Govind Prasad Sahu

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An individual seasonality index is used to study the seasonality of rainfall over India. The seasonality indicator is examined for two time periods: early (1901-1970) and recent (1971-2015). In some regions of India throughout the recent time (1971-2015), trend analysis using linear regression during these two periods reveals a downward trend in the seasonality index (i.e., decreasing values of the index), which implies shorter dry spells resulting in more consistent rainfall throughout the year.

Keywords: Individual seasonality index, rainfall distribution, seasonality index, climate.

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Authors: C. Yaiprasert, K. Jaroensutasinee, M. Jaroensutasinee

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To develop a process of extracting pixel values over the using of satellite remote sensing image data in Thailand. It is a very important and effective method of forecasting rainfall. This paper presents an approach for forecasting a possible rainfall area based on pixel values from remote sensing satellite images. First, a method uses an automatic extraction process of the pixel value data from the satellite image sequence. Then, a data process is designed to enable the inference of correlations between pixel value and possible rainfall occurrences. The result, when we have a high averaged pixel value of daily water vapor data, we will also have a high amount of daily rainfall. This suggests that the amount of averaged pixel values can be used as an indicator of raining events. There are some positive associations between pixel values of daily water vapor images and the amount of daily rainfall at each rain-gauge station throughout Thailand. The proposed approach was proven to be a helpful manual for rainfall forecasting from meteorologists by which using automated analyzing and interpreting process of meteorological remote sensing data.

Keywords: Pixel values, satellite image, water vapor, rainfall, image processing.

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Authors: Hoyoung Lee, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho, R. Eddie Wilson

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This study quantifies a decrement in freeway capacity during rainfall. Traffic and rainfall data were gathered from Highway Agencies and Wunderground weather service. Three inter-urban freeway sections and its nearest weather stations were selected as experimental sites. Capacity analysis found reductions of maximum and mean pre-breakdown flow rates due to rainfall. The Kruskal-Wallis test also provided some evidence to suggest that the variance in the pre-breakdown flow rate is statistically insignificant. Potential application of this study lies in the operation of real time traffic management schemes such as Variable Speed Limits (VSL), Hard Shoulder Running (HSR), and Ramp Metering System (RMS), where speed or flow limits could be set based on a number of factors, including rainfall events and their intensities.

Keywords: Capacity randomness, flow breakdown, freeway capacity, rainfall.

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Authors: Celso A. G. Santos, Paula K. M. M. Freire

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The urban centers within northeastern Brazil are mainly influenced by the intense rainfalls, which can occur after long periods of drought, when flood events can be observed during such events. Thus, this paper aims to study the rainfall frequencies in such region through the wavelet transform. An application of wavelet analysis is done with long time series of the total monthly rainfall amount at the capital cities of northeastern Brazil. The main frequency components in the time series are studied by the global wavelet spectrum and the modulation in separated periodicity bands were done in order to extract additional information, e.g., the 8 and 16 months band was examined by an average of all scales, giving a measure of the average annual variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified. The important increases were identified in the average variance for some periods, e.g. 1947 to 1952 at Teresina city, which can be considered as high wet periods. Although, the precipitation in those sites showed similar global wavelet spectra, the wavelet spectra revealed particular features. This study can be considered an important tool for time series analysis, which can help the studies concerning flood control, mainly when they are applied together with rainfall-runoff simulations.

Keywords: rainfall data, urban center, wavelet transform.

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Authors: R. Suzana, T. Wardah, A.B. Sahol Hamid

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The use of radar in Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) for radar-rainfall measurement is significantly beneficial. Radar has advantages in terms of high spatial and temporal condition in rainfall measurement and also forecasting. In Malaysia, radar application in QPE is still new and needs to be explored. This paper focuses on the Z/R derivation works of radarrainfall estimation based on rainfall classification. The works developed new Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin in Selangor area for three different general classes of rain events, namely low (<10mm/hr), moderate (>10mm/hr, <30mm/hr) and heavy (>30mm/hr) and also on more specific rain types during monsoon seasons. Looking at the high potential of Doppler radar in QPE, the newly formulated Z/R equations will be useful in improving the measurement of rainfall for any hydrological application, especially for flood forecasting.

Keywords: Radar, Quantitative Precipitation Estimation, Z/R development, flood forecasting

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Soumiya Bhattacharjee, P. K. Champati Ray, Shovan L. Chattoraj, Mrinmoy Dhara

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The entire Himalayan range is globally renowned for rainfall-induced landslides. The prime focus of the study is to determine rainfall based threshold for initiation of landslides that can be used as an important component of an early warning system for alerting stake holders. This research deals with temporal dimension of slope failures due to extreme rainfall events along the National Highway-58 from Karanprayag to Badrinath in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Post processed 3-hourly rainfall intensity data and its corresponding duration from daily rainfall data available from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used as the prime source of rainfall data. Landslide event records from Border Road Organization (BRO) and some ancillary landslide inventory data for 2013 and 2014 have been used to determine Intensity Duration (ID) based rainfall threshold. The derived governing threshold equation, I= 4.738D^-0.025, has been considered for prediction of landslides of the study region. This equation was validated with an accuracy of 70% landslides during August and September 2014. The derived equation was considered for further prediction of landslides of the study region. From the obtained results and validation, it can be inferred that this equation can be used for initiation of landslides in the study area to work as a part of an early warning system. Results can significantly improve with ground based rainfall estimates and better database on landslide records. Thus, the study has demonstrated a very low cost method to get first-hand information on possibility of impending landslide in any region, thereby providing alert and better preparedness for landslide disaster mitigation.

Keywords: Landslide, intensity-duration, rainfall threshold, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, slope, inventory, early warning system.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best-fit probability distribution of annual rainfall based on 50 years sample (1966-2015) in the Karkheh river basin at Iran using six probability distributions: Normal, 2-Parameter Log Normal, 3-Parameter Log Normal, Pearson Type 3, Log Pearson Type 3 and Gumbel distribution. The best fit probability distribution was selected using Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and based on the Residual Sum of Squares (R.S.S) between observed and estimated values Based on the R.S.S values of fit tests, the Log Pearson Type 3 and then Pearson Type 3 distributions were found to be the best-fit probability distribution at the Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal rainfall gauging station. The annual values of expected rainfall were calculated using the best fit probability distributions and can be used by hydrologists and design engineers in future research at studied region and other region in the world.

Keywords: Log Pearson Type 3, SMADA, rainfall, Karkheh River.

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar

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Heavy rains are one of the features of arid and semi arid climates which result in flood. This kind of rainfall originates from environmental and synoptic conditions. Mediterranean cyclones are the major factor in heavy rainfall in Iran, but these cyclones do not happen in some parts of Iran such as Southern and Southeastern areas. In this study, it has been tried to pinpoint the synoptic reasons of heavy rainfall in Isfahan through the analysis of the relationship between this rainfall in Isfahan and atmospheric system over Iran and the areas around it. The findings of this study show that the major factor have is the arrival of Sudanese low pressure system in this region from the southwest, of course if the ascent local conditions such as heat occur, the heaviest rains happen in Isfahan. In fact this kind of rainfall in Isfahan has a Sudanese origin and if it is accompanied by Mediterranean system, heavier rain falls.

Keywords: Flood, Atmospheric Systems, Synoptic Study, Geopotential Height, Sudanese Low Pressure

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events.

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