Search results for: Possibility distributions
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 811

Search results for: Possibility distributions

271 Evidence Theory Enabled Quickest Change Detection Using Big Time-Series Data from Internet of Things

Authors: Hossein Jafari, Xiangfang Li, Lijun Qian, Alexander Aved, Timothy Kroecker

Abstract:

Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result, the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a. Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses. Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.

Keywords: CUSUM, evidence theory, KL divergence, quickest change detection, time series data.

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270 Improving the Security of Internet of Things Using Encryption Algorithms

Authors: Amirhossein Safi

Abstract:

Internet of things (IOT) is a kind of advanced information technology which has drawn societies’ attention. Sensors and stimulators are usually recognized as smart devices of our environment. Simultaneously, IOT security brings up new issues. Internet connection and possibility of interaction with smart devices cause those devices to involve more in human life. Therefore, safety is a fundamental requirement in designing IOT. IOT has three remarkable features: overall perception, reliable transmission, and intelligent processing. Because of IOT span, security of conveying data is an essential factor for system security. Hybrid encryption technique is a new model that can be used in IOT. This type of encryption generates strong security and low computation. In this paper, we have proposed a hybrid encryption algorithm which has been conducted in order to reduce safety risks and enhancing encryption's speed and less computational complexity. The purpose of this hybrid algorithm is information integrity, confidentiality, non-repudiation in data exchange for IOT. Eventually, the suggested encryption algorithm has been simulated by MATLAB software, and its speed and safety efficiency were evaluated in comparison with conventional encryption algorithm.

Keywords: Internet of things, security, hybrid algorithm, privacy.

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269 Regional Stability Analysis of Rotor-Ball Bearing and Rotor- Roller Bearing Systems Considering Switching Phenomena

Authors: Jafar Abbaszadeh Chekan, Kaveh Merat, Hassan Zohoor

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In this study the regional stability of a rotor system which is supported on rolling bearings with radial clearance is studied. The rotor is assumed to be rigid. Due to radial clearance of bearings and dynamic configuration of system, each rolling elements of bearings has the possibility to be in contact with both of the races (under compression) or lose its contact. As a result, this change in dynamic of the system makes it to be known as switching system which is a type of Hybrid systems. In this investigation by adopting Multiple Lyapunov Function theorem and using Hamiltonian function as a candidate Lyapunov function, the stability of the system is studied. The purpose of this study is to inspect the regional stability of rotor-roller bearing and rotor-ball bearing systems.

Keywords: Stability analysis, Rotor-rolling bearing systems, Switching systems, Multiple Lyapunov Function Method

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268 Design of Cooperative Processes of Innovation

Authors: Suzanne Yaganeh, Janni Nielsen, Leif Bloch Rasmussen

Abstract:

This paper invites to dialogue and reflections on innovation and entrepreneurship by presenting concepts of innovation leading to the introduction of a complex theoretical framework; Cooperative Innovation (CO-IN). CO-IN is a didactic model enhancing and scaffolding processes of cooperation creating innovation drawing on a Scandinavian tradition. CO-IN is based on a cross-sectorial and multidisciplinary approach. We introduce the concept of complementarity to help capture the validity of diversity and we suggest the concept of “the space in between" to understand the creation of identity as a collective mind. We see dialogue and the use of multi modal techniques as essential tools for conceptualizations giving possibility for clarification of the complexity and diversity leading to decision making based on knowledge as commons. We introduce the didactic design and present our empirical findings from an innovation workshop in Argentina. In a final paragraph we reflect on the design as a support of the development of common ground, collective mind and collective action and the creation of knowledge as commons to facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: CO-operative Innovation, didactic design, dialogue and ICT.

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267 Places of Tourist Attraction: Planning Sustainable Fruition by Preserving Place Identity

Authors: Marichela Sepe

Abstract:

Massive use of places with strong tourist attraction with the consequent possibility of losing place-identity produces harmful effects on cities and their users. In order to mitigate this risk, areas close to such places can be identified so as to widen the visitor-s range of action and offer alternative activities integrated with the main site. The cultural places and appropriate activities can be identified using a method of analysis and design able to trace the identity of the places, their characteristics and potential, and to provide a sustainable improvement. The aim of this work is to propose PlaceMaker as a method of urban analysis and design which both detects elements that do not feature in traditional mapping and which constitute the contemporary identity of the places, and identifies appropriate project interventions. Two final complex maps – the first of analysis and the second of design – respectively represent the identity of places and project interventions. In order to illustrate the method-s potential; the results of the experimentation carried out in the Trevi-Pantheon route in Rome and the appropriate interventions to decongest the area are illustrated.

Keywords: Place-identity, PlaceMaker method, sustainablefruition, tourist attractions.

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266 DEA Method for Evaluation of EU Performance

Authors: M. Staníčková

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The paper deals with an application of quantitative analysis – the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to performance evaluation of the European Union Member States, in the reference years 2000 and 2011. The main aim of the paper is to measure efficiency changes over the reference years and to analyze a level of productivity in individual countries based on DEA method and to classify the EU Member States to homogeneous units (clusters) according to efficiency results. The theoretical part is devoted to the fundamental basis of performance theory and the methodology of DEA. The empirical part is aimed at measuring degree of productivity and level of efficiency changes of evaluated countries by basic DEA model – CCR CRS model, and specialized DEA approach – the Malmquist Index measuring the change of technical efficiency and the movement of production possibility frontier. Here, DEA method becomes a suitable tool for setting a competitive/uncompetitive position of each country because there is not only one factor evaluated, but a set of different factors that determine the degree of economic development.

Keywords: CCR CRS model, cluster analysis, DEA method, efficiency, EU, Malmquist index, performance.

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265 When Explanations “Cause“ Error: A Look at Representations and Compressions

Authors: Michael Lissack

Abstract:

We depend upon explanation in order to “make sense" out of our world. And, making sense is all the more important when dealing with change. But, what happens if our explanations are wrong? This question is examined with respect to two types of explanatory model. Models based on labels and categories we shall refer to as “representations." More complex models involving stories, multiple algorithms, rules of thumb, questions, ambiguity we shall refer to as “compressions." Both compressions and representations are reductions. But representations are far more reductive than compressions. Representations can be treated as a set of defined meanings – coherence with regard to a representation is the degree of fidelity between the item in question and the definition of the representation, of the label. By contrast, compressions contain enough degrees of freedom and ambiguity to allow us to make internal predictions so that we may determine our potential actions in the possibility space. Compressions are explanatory via mechanism. Representations are explanatory via category. Managers are often confusing their evocation of a representation (category inclusion) as the creation of a context of compression (description of mechanism). When this type of explanatory error occurs, more errors follow. In the drive for efficiency such substitutions are all too often proclaimed – at the manager-s peril..

Keywords: Coherence, Emergence, Reduction, Model

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264 Graded Orientation of the Linear Polymers

Authors: Levan Nadareishvili, Roland Bakuradze, Barbara Kilosanidze, Nona Topuridze, Liana Sharashidze, Ineza Pavlenishvili

Abstract:

Some regularities of formation of a new structural state of the thermoplastic polymers - gradually oriented (stretched) state (GOS) are discussed. Transition into GOS is realized by the graded oriented stretching - by action of inhomogeneous mechanical field on the isotropic linear polymers or by zone stretching that is implemented on a standard tensile-testing machine with using a specially designed zone stretching device (ZSD). Both technical approaches (especially zone stretching method) allows to manage the such quantitative parameters of gradually oriented polymers as a range of change in relative elongation/orientation degree, length of this change and profile (linear, hyperbolic, parabolic, logarithmic, etc.). The possibility of obtaining functionally graded materials (FGMs) by graded orientation method is briefly discussed. Uniaxial graded stretching method should be considered as an effective technological solution to create polymer materials with a predetermined gradient of physical properties.

Keywords: Controlled graded stretching, gradually oriented state, linear polymers, zone stretching device.

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263 Synthesis, Characterization and Physico–Chemical Properties of Nano Zinc Oxide and PVA Composites

Authors: Rashmi S. H., G. M. Madhu, A. A. Kittur, R. Suresh

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Polymer nanocomposites represent a new class of materials in which nanomaterials act as the reinforcing material in composites, wherein small additions of nanomaterials lead to large enhancements in thermal, optical and mechanical properties. A boost in these properties is due to the large interfacial area per unit volume or weight of the nanoparticles and the interactions between the particle and the polymer. Micro sized particles used as reinforcing agents scatter light, thus reducing light transmittance and optical clarity. Efficient nanoparticle dispersion combined with good polymer–particle interfacial adhesion eliminates scattering and allows the exciting possibility of developing strong yet transparent films, coatings and membranes. This paper aims at synthesising zinc oxide nanoparticles which are reinforced in poly vinyl alcohol (PVA) polymer. The mechanical properties showed that the tensile strength of the PVA nanocomposites increases with the increase in the amount of nanoparticles.

Keywords: Glutaraldehyde, polymer nanocomposites, poly vinyl alcohol, zinc oxide.

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262 The Defects Reduction in Injection Molding by Fuzzy Logic based Machine Selection System

Authors: S. Suwannasri, R. Sirovetnukul

Abstract:

The effective machine-job assignment of injection molding machines is very important for industry because it is not only directly affects the quality of the product but also the performance and lifetime of the machine as well. The phase of machine selection was mostly done by professionals or experienced planners, so the possibility of matching a job with an inappropriate machine might occur when it was conducted by an inexperienced person. It could lead to an uneconomical plan and defects. This research aimed to develop a machine selection system for plastic injection machines as a tool to help in decision making of the user. This proposed system could be used both in normal times and in times of emergency. Fuzzy logic principle is applied to deal with uncertainty and mechanical factors in the selection of both quantity and quality criteria. The six criteria were obtained from a plastic manufacturer's case study to construct a system based on fuzzy logic theory using MATLAB. The results showed that the system was able to reduce the defects of Short Shot and Sink Mark to 24.0% and 8.0% and the total defects was reduced around 8.7% per month.

Keywords: Injection molding machine, machine selection, fuzzy logic, defects in injection molding, matlab.

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261 A Mahalanobis Distance-based Diversification and Nelder-Mead Simplex Intensification Search Scheme for Continuous Ant Colony Optimization

Authors: Sasadhar Bera, Indrajit Mukherjee

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Ant colony optimization (ACO) and its variants are applied extensively to resolve various continuous optimization problems. As per the various diversification and intensification schemes of ACO for continuous function optimization, researchers generally consider components of multidimensional state space to generate the new search point(s). However, diversifying to a new search space by updating only components of the multidimensional vector may not ensure that the new point is at a significant distance from the current solution. If a minimum distance is not ensured during diversification, then there is always a possibility that the search will end up with reaching only local optimum. Therefore, to overcome such situations, a Mahalanobis distance-based diversification with Nelder-Mead simplex-based search scheme for each ant is proposed for the ACO strategy. A comparative computational run results, based on nine nonlinear standard test problems, confirms that the performance of ACO is improved significantly with the integration of the proposed schemes in the ACO.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization, Diversification Scheme, Intensification, Mahalanobis Distance, Nelder-Mead Simplex.

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260 Geo-Spatial Methods to Better Understand Urban Food Deserts

Authors: Brian Ceh, Alison Jackson-Holland

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Food deserts are a reality in some cities. These deserts can be described as a shortage of healthy food options within close proximity of consumers. The shortage in this case is typically facilitated by a lack of stores in an urban area that provide adequate fruit and vegetable choices. This study explores new avenues to better understand food deserts by examining modes of transportation that are available to shoppers or consumers, e.g. walking, automobile, or public transit. Further, this study is unique in that it not only explores the location of large grocery stores, but small grocery and convenience stores too. In this study, the relationship between some socio-economic indicators, such as personal income, are also explored to determine any possible association with food deserts. In addition, to help facilitate our understanding of food deserts, complex network spatial models that are built on adequate algorithms are used to investigate the possibility of food deserts in the city of Hamilton, Canada. It is found that Hamilton, Canada is adequate serviced by retailers who provide healthy food choices and that the food desert phenomena is almost absent.

Keywords: Canada, desert, food, Hamilton, stores.

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259 Ordinal Regression with Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics: A Case Study of an Orienteering Race

Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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258 2D-Modeling with Lego Mindstorms

Authors: Miroslav Popelka, Jakub Nožička

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The whole work is based on possibility to use Lego Mindstorms robotics systems to reduce costs. Lego Mindstorms consists of a wide variety of hardware components necessary to simulate, programme and test of robotics systems in practice. To programme algorithm, which simulates space using the ultrasonic sensor, was used development environment supplied with kit. Software Matlab was used to render values afterwards they were measured by ultrasonic sensor. The algorithm created for this paper uses theoretical knowledge from area of signal processing. Data being processed by algorithm are collected by ultrasonic sensor that scans 2D space in front of it. Ultrasonic sensor is placed on moving arm of robot which provides horizontal moving of sensor. Vertical movement of sensor is provided by wheel drive. The robot follows map in order to get correct positioning of measured data. Based on discovered facts it is possible to consider Lego Mindstorm for low-cost and capable kit for real-time modelling.

Keywords: LEGO Mindstorms, ultrasonic sensor, Real-time modeling, 2D object, low-cost robotics systems, sensors, Matlab, EV3 Home Edition Software.

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257 Designing and Evaluating Pedagogic Conversational Agents to Teach Children

Authors: Silvia Tamayo-Moreno, Diana Pérez-Marín

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In this paper, the possibility of children studying by using an interactive learning technology called Pedagogic Conversational Agent is presented. The main benefit is that the agent is able to adapt the dialogue to each student and to provide automatic feedback. Moreover, according to Math teachers, in many cases students are unable to solve the problems even knowing the procedure to solve them, because they do not understand what they have to do. The hypothesis is that if students are helped to understand what they have to solve, they will be able to do it. Taken that into account, we have started the development of Dr. Roland, an agent to help students understand Math problems following a User-Centered Design methodology. The use of this methodology is proposed, for the first time, to design pedagogic agents to teach any subject from Secondary down to Pre-Primary education. The reason behind proposing a methodology is that while working on this project, we noticed the lack of literature to design and evaluate agents. To cover this gap, we describe how User-Centered Design can be applied, and which usability techniques can be applied to evaluate the agent.

Keywords: Pedagogic conversational agent, human-computer interaction, user-centered design, natural language interface.

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256 GSM-Based Approach for Indoor Localization

Authors: M.Stella, M. Russo, D. Begušić

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Ability of accurate and reliable location estimation in indoor environment is the key issue in developing great number of context aware applications and Location Based Services (LBS). Today, the most viable solution for localization is the Received Signal Strength (RSS) fingerprinting based approach using wireless local area network (WLAN). This paper presents two RSS fingerprinting based approaches – first we employ widely used WLAN based positioning as a reference system and then investigate the possibility of using GSM signals for positioning. To compare them, we developed a positioning system in real world environment, where realistic RSS measurements were collected. Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network was used as the approximation function that maps RSS fingerprints and locations. Experimental results indicate advantage of WLAN based approach in the sense of lower localization error compared to GSM based approach, but GSM signal coverage by far outreaches WLAN coverage and for some LBS services requiring less precise accuracy our results indicate that GSM positioning can also be a viable solution.

Keywords: Indoor positioning, WLAN, GSM, RSS, location fingerprints, neural network.

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255 Effective Work Roll Cooling toward Stand Reduction in Hot Strip Process

Authors: Temsiri Sapsaman, Anocha Bhocarattanahkul

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The maintenance of work rolls in hot strip processing has been lengthy and difficult tasks for hot strip manufacturer because heavy work rolls have to be taken out of the production line, which could take hours. One way to increase the time between maintenance is to improve the effectiveness of the work roll cooling system such that the wear and tear more slowly occurs, while the operation cost is kept low. Therefore, this study aims to improve the work roll cooling system by providing the manufacturer the relationship between the work-roll temperature reduced by cooling and the water flow that can help manufacturer determining the more effective water flow of the cooling system. The relationship is found using simulation with a systematic process adjustment so that the satisfying quality of product is achieved. Results suggest that the manufacturer could reduce the water flow by 9% with roughly the same performance. With the same process adjustment, the feasibility of finishing-mill-stand reduction is also investigated. Results suggest its possibility.

Keywords: Work-roll cooling system, hot strip process adjustment, feasibility study.

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254 Strategies for Connectivity Configuration to Access e-Learning Resources: Case of Rural Secondary Schools in Tanzania

Authors: F. Simba, L. Trojer, N.H. Mvungi, B.M. Mwinyiwiwa, E.M. Mjema

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In response to address different development challenges, Tanzania is striving to achieve its fourth attribute of the National Development Vision, i.e. to have a well educated and learned society by the year 2025. One of the most cost effective methods that can reach a large part of the society in a short time is to integrate ICT in education through e-learning initiatives. However, elearning initiatives are challenged by limited or lack of connectivity to majority of secondary schools, especially those in rural and remote areas. This paper has explores the possibility for rural secondary school to access online e-Learning resources from a centralized e- Learning Management System (e-LMS). The scope of this paper is limited to schools that have computers irrespective of internet connectivity, resulting in two categories schools; those with internet access and those without. Different connectivity configurations have been proposed according to the ICT infrastructure status of the respective schools. However, majority of rural secondary schools in Tanzania have neither computers nor internet connection. Therefore this is a challenge to be addressed for the disadvantaged schools to benefit from e-Learning initiatives.

Keywords: connectivity, configuration, e-Learning, replication, rural.

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253 Negative Pressure Waves in Hydraulic Systems

Authors: Fuad H. Veliev

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Negative pressure phenomenon appears in many thermodynamic, geophysical and biophysical processes in the Nature and technological systems. For more than 100 years of the laboratory researches beginning from F. M. Donny’s tests, the great values of negative pressure have been achieved. But this phenomenon has not been practically applied, being only a nice lab toy due to the special demands for the purity and homogeneity of the liquids for its appearance. The possibility of creation of direct wave of negative pressure in real heterogeneous liquid systems was confirmed experimentally under the certain kinetic and hydraulic conditions. The negative pressure can be considered as the factor of both useful and destroying energies. The new approach to generation of the negative pressure waves in impure, unclean fluids has allowed the creation of principally new energy saving technologies and installations to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of different production processes. It was proved that the negative pressure is one of the main factors causing hard troubles in some technological and natural processes. Received results emphasize the necessity to take into account the role of the negative pressure as an energy factor in evaluation of many transient thermohydrodynamic processes in the Nature and production systems.

Keywords: Liquid systems, negative pressure, temperature, wave, metastable state.

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252 Dynamic Window Secured Implicit Geographic Forwarding Routing for Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: Z.M. Hanapi, M. Ismail, K. Jumari, M. Mahdavi

Abstract:

Routing security is a major concerned in Wireless Sensor Network since a large scale of unattended nodes is deployed in ad hoc fashion with no possibility of a global addressing due to a limitation of node-s memory and the node have to be self organizing when the systems require a connection with the other nodes. It becomes more challenging when the nodes have to act as the router and tightly constrained on energy and computational capabilities where any existing security mechanisms are not allowed to be fitted directly. These reasons thus increasing vulnerabilities to the network layer particularly and to the whole network, generally. In this paper, a Dynamic Window Secured Implicit Geographic Forwarding (DWSIGF) routing is presented where a dynamic time is used for collection window to collect Clear to Send (CTS) control packet in order to find an appropriate hoping node. The DWIGF is expected to minimize a chance to select an attacker as the hoping node that caused by a blackhole attack that happen because of the CTS rushing attack, which promise a good network performance with high packet delivery ratios.

Keywords: sensor, security, routing, attack, random.

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251 The Situation in the Public Procurement Market in Post-Communist Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic

Authors: Jan Pavel

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Public procurement is one of the most important areas in the public sector that introduces a possibility for a corruption. Due to the volume of the funds that are allocated through this institution (in the EU countries it is between 10 – 15% of GDP), it has very serious implications for the efficiency of public expenditures and the overall economic efficiency as well. Indicators that are usually used for the measurement of the corruption (such as Corruption Perceptions Index - CPI) show that the worst situation is in the post-communist countries and Mediterranean countries. The presented paper uses the Czech Republic as an example of a post-communist country and analyses the factors which influence the scope of corruption in public procurement. Moreover, the paper discusses indicators that could point at the public procurement market inefficiency. The presented results show that post-communist states use the institute of public contracts significantly more than the old member countries of the continental Europe. It has a very important implication because it gives more space for corruption. Furthermore, it appears that the inefficient functioning of public procurement market is clearly manifested in the low number of bids, low level of market transparency and an ineffective control system. Some of the observed indicators are statistically significantly correlated with the CPI.

Keywords: Czech Republic, Corruption, Public Procurement, Post-Communist Countries

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250 A Prediction of Attractive Evaluation Objects Based On Complex Sequential Data

Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Makino Kyoko, Shigeru Matsumoto

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This paper proposes a method that predicts attractive evaluation objects. In the learning phase, the method inductively acquires trend rules from complex sequential data. The data is composed of two types of data. One is numerical sequential data. Each evaluation object has respective numerical sequential data. The other is text sequential data. Each evaluation object is described in texts. The trend rules represent changes of numerical values related to evaluation objects. In the prediction phase, the method applies new text sequential data to the trend rules and evaluates which evaluation objects are attractive. This paper verifies the effect of the proposed method by using stock price sequences and news headline sequences. In these sequences, each stock brand corresponds to an evaluation object. This paper discusses validity of predicted attractive evaluation objects, the process time of each phase, and the possibility of application tasks.

Keywords: Trend rule, frequent pattern, numerical sequential data, text sequential data, evaluation object.

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249 Emotions and Message Sharing on the Chinese Microblog

Authors: Yungeng Xie, Cong Liu, Yi Liu, Xuanao Wan

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The study aims to explore microblog users’ emotion expression and sharing behaviors on the Chinese microblog (Weibo). The first theme of study analyzed whether microblog emotions impact readers’ message sharing behaviors, specifically, how the strength of emotion (positive and negative) in microblog messages facilitate/inhibit readers’ sharing behaviors. The second theme compared the differences among the three types of microblog users (i.e., verified enterprise users, verified individual users and unverified users) in terms of their profiles and microblog behaviors. A total of 7114 microblog messages about 24 hot public events in China were sampled from Sina Weibo. The first study results show that strength of negative emotions that microblog messages carry significantly increase the possibility of the message being shared. The second study results indicate that there are significant differences across the three types of users in terms of their emotion expression and its influence on microblog behaviors.

Keywords: Microblog, emotion expression, information diffusion.

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248 Influence of Gum Acacia Karroo on Some Mechanical Properties of Cement Mortars and Concrete

Authors: Rose Mbugua, Ramadhan Wanjala, Julius Ndambuki

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Natural admixtures provide concrete with enhanced properties but their processing end up making them very expensive resulting in increase to cost of concrete. In this study the effect of Gum from Acacia Karroo (GAK) as set-retarding admixture in cement pastes was studied. The possibility of using GAK as water reducing admixture both in cement mortar concrete was also investigated. Cement pastes with different dosages of GAK were prepared to measure the setting time using different dosages. Compressive strength of cement mortars with 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9% weight of cement and w/c ratio of 0.5 were compared to those with water cement (w/c) ratio of 0.44 but same dosage of GAK. Concrete samples were prepared using higher dosages of GAK (1, 2 and 3% wt of cement) and a water bidder (w/b) of 0.61 were compared to those with the same GAK dosage but with reduced w/b ratio. There was increase in compressive strength of 9.3% at 28 days for cement mortar samples with 0.9% dosage of GAK and reduced w/c ratio.

Keywords: Compressive strength, Gum Acacia Karroo, retarding admixture, setting time, water-reducing admixture.

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247 CFD Analysis on Aerodynamic Design Optimization of Wind Turbine Rotor Blades

Authors: R.S. Amano, R.J. Malloy

Abstract:

Wind energy has been shown to be one of the most viable sources of renewable energy. With current technology, the low cost of wind energy is competitive with more conventional sources of energy such as coal. Most blades available for commercial grade wind turbines incorporate a straight span-wise profile and airfoil shaped cross sections. These blades are found to be very efficient at lower wind speeds in comparison to the potential energy that can be extracted. However as the oncoming wind speed increases the efficiency of the blades decreases as they approach a stall point. This paper explores the possibility of increasing the efficiency of the blades at higher wind speeds while maintaining efficiency at the lower wind speeds. The design intends to maintain efficiency at lower wind speeds by selecting the appropriate orientation and size of the airfoil cross sections based on a low oncoming wind speed and given constant rotation rate. The blades will be made more efficient at higher wind speeds by implementing a swept blade profile. Performance was investigated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD).

Keywords: CFD, wind turbine blade, renewable energy.

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246 Solver for a Magnetic Equivalent Circuit and Modeling the Inrush Current of a 3-Phase Transformer

Authors: Markus G. Ortner, Christian Magele, Klaus Krischan

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Knowledge about the magnetic quantities in a magnetic circuit is always of great interest. On the one hand, this information is needed for the simulation of a transformer. On the other hand, parameter studies are more reliable, if the magnetic quantities are derived from a well established model. One possibility to model the 3-phase transformer is by using a magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC). Though this is a well known system, it is often not an easy task to set up such a model for a large number of lumped elements which additionally includes the nonlinear characteristic of the magnetic material. Here we show the setup of a solver for a MEC and the results of the calculation in comparison to measurements taken. The equations of the MEC are based on a rearranged system of the nodal analysis. Thus it is possible to achieve a minimum number of equations, and a clear and simple structure. Hence, it is uncomplicated in its handling and it supports the iteration process. Additional helpful tasks are implemented within the solver to enhance the performance. The electric circuit is described by an electric equivalent circuit (EEC). Our results for the 3-phase transformer demonstrate the computational efficiency of the solver, and show the benefit of the application of a MEC.

Keywords: Inrush current, magnetic equivalent circuit, nonlinear behavior, transformer.

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245 Consumer Market of Agricultural Products and Agricultural Policy in Georgia

Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, M. Saghareishvili

Abstract:

The article discusses the consumer market of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. It is noted that development of the strategic areas of the agricultural sector needs a special support. These strategic areas should create the country's major export potential. It is important to develop strategies to access to the international markets, form extensive marketing network etc., which will become the basis for the promotion and revenue growth of the country. The Georgian agricultural sector, with the right state policy and support, can achieve success and gain access to the world market with competitive agricultural products. The paper discusses the current condition of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products and agricultural policy in Georgia. The conducted research concludes the information that there is an increasing demand on the green goods in the world market. Natural and climatic conditions of Georgia give a serious possibility of implementing it. The research presents an agricultural development strategy in Georgia and the findings and based on them recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: Agriculture, agricultural cooperative society agricultural insurance, agricultural policy, export-import of agricultural products.

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244 Implementation of Vertical Neutron Camera (VNC) for ITER Fusion Plasma Neutron Source Profile Reconstruction

Authors: V. Amosov, Yu. Kashchuk, A. Krasilnikov, A. Kostin, A. Khovanskiy, A. Leonov, N. Rodionov, R. Rodionov

Abstract:

In present work the problem of the ITER fusion plasma neutron source parameter reconstruction using only the Vertical Neutron Camera data was solved. The possibility of neutron source parameter reconstruction was estimated by the numerical simulations and the analysis of adequateness of mathematic model was performed. The neutron source was specified in a parametric form. The numerical analysis of solution stability with respect to data distortion was done. The influence of the data errors on the reconstructed parameters is shown: • is reconstructed with errors less than 4% at all examined values of δ (until 60%); • is determined with errors less than 10% when δ do not overcome 5%; • is reconstructed with relative error more than 10 %; • integral intensity of the neutron source is determined with error 10% while δ error is less than 15%; where -error of signal measurements, (R0,Z0), the plasma center position,- /parameter of neutron source profile.

Keywords: ITER, neutronsource, neutron source profile reconstruction, Vertical Neutron Camera.

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243 Evaluation of an Offshore Wind Power Project: Economic, Strategic and Environmental Value

Authors: Paula Ferreira, Filipa Vieira

Abstract:

The use of wind energy for electricity generation is growing rapidly across the world and in Portugal. However, the geographical characteristics of the country along with the average wind regime and with the environmental restrictions imposed to these projects create limitations to the exploit of the onshore wind resource. The best onshore wind spots are already committed and the possibility of offshore wind farms in the Portuguese cost is now being considered. This paper aims to make a contribution to the evaluation of offshore wind power projects in Portugal. The technical restrictions are addressed and the strategic, environmental and financial interest of the project is analysed from the private company and public points of view. The results suggest that additional support schemes are required to ensure private investors interest for these projects. Assuming an approach of direct substitution of energy sources for electricity generation, the avoided CO2 equivalent emissions for an offshore wind power project were quantified. Based on the conclusions, future research is proposed to address the environmental and social impacts of these projects.

Keywords: Feed-in tariff, offshore wind power, project evaluation.

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242 Spatial Mapping of Dengue Incidence: A Case Study in Hulu Langat District, Selangor, Malaysia

Authors: Er, A. C., Rosli, M. H., Asmahani A., Mohamad Naim M. R., Harsuzilawati M.

Abstract:

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infection that has peaked to an alarming rate in recent decades. It can be found in tropical and sub-tropical climate. In Malaysia, dengue has been declared as one of the national health threat to the public. This study aimed to map the spatial distributions of dengue cases in the district of Hulu Langat, Selangor via a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) and spatial statistic tools. Data related to dengue was gathered from the various government health agencies. The location of dengue cases was geocoded using a handheld GPS Juno SB Trimble. A total of 197 dengue cases occurring in 2003 were used in this study. Those data then was aggregated into sub-district level and then converted into GIS format. The study also used population or demographic data as well as the boundary of Hulu Langat. To assess the spatial distribution of dengue cases three spatial statistics method (Moran-s I, average nearest neighborhood (ANN) and kernel density estimation) were applied together with spatial analysis in the GIS environment. Those three indices were used to analyze the spatial distribution and average distance of dengue incidence and to locate the hot spot of dengue cases. The results indicated that the dengue cases was clustered (p < 0.01) when analyze using Moran-s I with z scores 5.03. The results from ANN analysis showed that the average nearest neighbor ratio is less than 1 which is 0.518755 (p < 0.0001). From this result, we can expect the dengue cases pattern in Hulu Langat district is exhibiting a cluster pattern. The z-score for dengue incidence within the district is -13.0525 (p < 0.0001). It was also found that the significant spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidences occurs at an average distance of 380.81 meters (p < 0.0001). Several locations especially residential area also had been identified as the hot spots of dengue cases in the district.

Keywords: Dengue, geographic information system (GIS), spatial analysis, spatial statistics

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