Search results for: Marginal likelihood evidence.

Authors: S. Deelers, S. Auwatanamongkol

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an algorithm to compute initial cluster centers for K-means clustering. Data in a cell is partitioned using a cutting plane that divides cell in two smaller cells. The plane is perpendicular to the data axis with the highest variance and is designed to reduce the sum squared errors of the two cells as much as possible, while at the same time keep the two cells far apart as possible. Cells are partitioned one at a time until the number of cells equals to the predefined number of clusters, K. The centers of the K cells become the initial cluster centers for K-means. The experimental results suggest that the proposed algorithm is effective, converge to better clustering results than those of the random initialization method. The research also indicated the proposed algorithm would greatly improve the likelihood of every cluster containing some data in it.

Keywords: Clustering algorithm, K-means algorithm, Datapartitioning, Initial cluster centers.

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Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval

Abstract:

Air bending is one of the important metal forming processes, because of its simplicity and large field application. Accuracy of analytical and empirical models reported for the analysis of bending processes is governed by simplifying assumption and do not consider the effect of dynamic parameters. Number of researches is reported on the finite element analysis (FEA) of V-bending, Ubending, and air V-bending processes. FEA of bending is found to be very sensitive to many physical and numerical parameters. FE models must be computationally efficient for practical use. Reported work shows the 3D FEA of air bending process using Hyperform LSDYNA and its comparison with, published 3D FEA results of air bending in Ansys LS-DYNA and experimental results. Observing the planer symmetry and based on the assumption of plane strain condition, air bending problem was modeled in 2D with symmetric boundary condition in width. Stress-strain results of 2D FEA were compared with 3D FEA results and experiments. Simplification of air bending problem from 3D to 2D resulted into tremendous reduction in the solution time with only marginal effect on stressstrain results. FE model simplification by studying the problem symmetry is more efficient and practical approach for solution of more complex large dimensions slow forming processes.

Keywords: Air V-bending, Finite element analysis, HyperformLS-DYNA, Planner symmetry.

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Authors: Diego Tlapa, Jorge Limón, Yolanda Báez, Julián Aguilar

Abstract:

This work is about Six Sigma (SS) implementation in Mexico by using an empirical study. Main goals are to analyze the degree of importance of the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) of SS and to examine if these factors are grouped in some way. A literature research and a survey were conducted to capture SS practitioner’s viewpoint about CSFs in SS implementation and their impact on the performance within manufacturing companies located in Baja California, Mexico. Finally, a Principal Component Analysis showed that nine critical success factors could be grouped in three components, which are: management vision, implementation strategy, and collaborative team. In the other hand, SS’s success is represented by cost reduction, variation reduction, experience and self-esteem of the workers, and quality improvement. Concluding remarks arising from the study are that CSFs are changing through time and paying attention to these nine factors can increase SS’s success likelihood.

Keywords: Six sigma, Critical Success Factors, Factor Analysis.

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Authors: Qing Dai, Zhengkui Lin, Jiajia Zhang, Yi Qu

Abstract:

Based on activity method, this paper focuses on morning commuting behavior when commuters travel with autonomous vehicles (AVs). Firstly, a net utility function of commuters is constructed by the activity utility of commuters at home, in car and at workplace, and the disutility of travel time cost and that of schedule delay cost. Then, this net utility function is applied to build an equilibrium model. Finally, under the assumption of constant marginal activity utility, the properties of equilibrium are analyzed. The results show that, in autonomous driving, the starting and ending time of morning peak and the number of commuters who arrive early and late at workplace are the same as those in manual driving. In automatic driving, however, the departure rate of arriving early at workplace is higher than that of manual driving, while the departure rate of arriving late is just the opposite. In addition, compared with manual driving, the departure time of arriving at workplace on time is earlier and the number of people queuing at the bottleneck is larger in automatic driving. However, the net utility of commuters and the total net utility of system in automatic driving are greater than those in manual driving.

Keywords: Autonomous cars, bottleneck model, activity utility, user equilibrium.

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Authors: Kyu-Jeoung Lee, Jae-Uk Choo

Abstract:

This paper focuses on investigating The Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde from Utterson’s point of view, referring to: Gabriel John Utterson, a central character in the book. Utterson is no different from a forensic investigator, as he tries to collect evidence on the mysterious Mr. Hyde’s relationship to Dr. Jekyll. From Utterson's perspective, Jekyll is the 'victim' of a potential scandal and blackmail, and Hyde is the 'suspect' of a possible 'crime'. Utterson intends to figure out Hyde's identity, connect his motive with his actions, and gather witness accounts. During Utterson’s quest, the outside materials available to him along with the social backgrounds of Hyde and Jekyll will be analyzed. The archives left from Jekyll’s chamber will also play a part providing evidence. Utterson will investigate, based on what he already knows about Jekyll his whole life, and how Jekyll had acted in his eyes until he was gone, and finding out possible explanations for Jekyll's actions. The relationship between Jekyll and Hyde becomes the major question, as the social background offers clues pointing in the direction of illegitimacy and prostitution. There is still a possibility that Jekyll and Hyde were, in fact, completely different people. Utterson received a full statement and confession from Jekyll himself at the end of the story, which gives the reader the possible truth on what happened. Stevenson’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde led readers, as it did Utterson, to find the connection between Hyde and Jekyll using methods of history, culture, and science. Utterson's quest to uncover Hyde shows an example of applying the various fields to in his act to see if Hyde's inheritance was legal. All of this taken together could technically be considered forensic investigation.

Keywords: Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, forensic investigation, illegitimacy, prostitution, Robert Louis Stevenson.

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke, Lorna M. Kamau

Abstract:

This paper attempted to assess whether the size of the regional economic bloc has an impact to the flow of trade to a particular country. Two different sized blocs (COMESA and EAC) and one country (Tanzania) have been used as the point of references. Using the results from of the analyses, the paper also was anticipated to establish whether it was rational for Tanzania to withdraw its membership from COMESA (the larger bloc) to join EAC (the small one). Gravity model has been used to estimate the relationship between the variables, from which the bilateral trade flows between Tanzania and the eighteen member countries of the two blocs (COMESA and EAC) was employed for the time between 2000 and 2013. In the model, the dummy variable for regional bloc (bloc) at which the Tanzania trade partner countries belong are also added to the model to understand which trade bloc exhibit higher trade flow with Tanzania. From the findings, it was noted that over the period of study (2000-2013) Tanzania acknowledged more than 257% of trade volume in EAC than in COMESA. Conclusive, it was noted that the flow of trade is explained by many other variables apart from the size of regional bloc; and that the size by itself offer insufficient evidence in causality relationship. The paper therefore remain neutral on such staggered switching decision since more analyses are required to establish the country’s trade flow, especially when if it had been in multiple membership of COMESA and EAC.

Keywords: Economic Bloc, Flow of Trade, Size of Bloc, Switching.

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Authors: Angie M. Wolf, Angie Del Prado Lippman, DeVone Boggan, Caroline Glesmann, Estivaliz Castro

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This paper highlights an innovative and nontraditional violence prevention program that is making a noticeable impact in what was once one of the country’s most violent communities. With unique and tailored strategies, the Operation Peacemaker Fellowship, established in Richmond, California, combines components of evidence-based practices with a community-oriented focus on relationships and mentoring to fill a gap in services and increase community safety. In an effort to highlight these unique strategies and provide a blueprint for other communities with violent crime problems, the authors of this paper hope to clearly delineate how one community is moving forward with vanguard approaches to invest in the lives of young men who once were labeled their community’s most violent, even most deadly, youth. The impact of this program is evidenced through the fellows’ own voices as they illuminate the experience of being in the Fellowship. In interviews, fellows describe how participating in this program has transformed their lives and the lives of those they love. The authors of this article spent more than two years researching this Fellowship program in order to conduct an evaluation of it and, ultimately, to demonstrate how this program is a testament to the power of relationships and love combined with evidence-based practices, consequently enriching the lives of youth and the community that embraces them.

Keywords: Community violence, firearm violence, interventions for violent crime, violence prevention.

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Authors: Rasaki O. Olanrewaju

Abstract:

The driven processes of Wiener and Lévy are known self-standing Gaussian-Markov processes for fitting non-linear dynamical Vasciek model. In this paper, a coincidental Gaussian density stationarity condition and autocorrelation function of the two driven processes were established. This led to the conflation of Wiener and Lévy processes so as to investigate the efficiency of estimates incorporated into the one-dimensional Vasciek model that was estimated via the Maximum Likelihood (ML) technique. The conditional laws of drift, diffusion and stationarity process was ascertained for the individual Wiener and Lévy processes as well as the commingle of the two processes for a fixed effect and Autoregressive like Vasciek model when subjected to financial series; exchange rate of Naira-CFA Franc. In addition, the model performance error of the sub-merged driven process was miniature compared to the self-standing driven process of Wiener and Lévy.

Keywords: Wiener process, Lévy process, Vasciek model, drift, diffusion, Gaussian density stationary.

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Authors: Y. Obikane , M.Kaneko, K.Kakioka, K.Ogura

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The fine structure of supercavitation in the wake of a symmetrical cylinder is studied with high-speed video cameras. The flow is observed in a cavitation tunnel at the speed of 8m/sec when the sidewall and the wake are partially filled with the massive cavitation bubbles. The present experiment observed that a two-dimensional ripple wave with a wave length of 0.3mm is propagated in a downstream direction, and then abruptly increases to a thicker three-dimensional layer. IR-photography recorded that the wakes originated from the horseshoe vortexes alongside the cylinder. The wake was developed to inside the dead water zone, which absorbed the bubbly wake propelled from the separated vortices at the center of the cylinder. A remote sensing classification technique (maximum most likelihood) determined that the surface porosity was 0.2, and the mean speed in the mixed wake was 7m/sec. To confirm the existence of two-dimensional wave motions in the interface, the experiments were conducted at a very low frequency, and showed similar gravity waves in both the upper and lower interfaces.

Keywords: Supercavitation, density gradient correlation

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Authors: Nicoletta Adamo-Villani

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In this paper we report a study aimed at determining the most effective animation technique for representing ASL (American Sign Language) finger-spelling. Specifically, in the study we compare two commonly used 3D computer animation methods (keyframe animation and motion capture) in order to ascertain which technique produces the most 'accurate', 'readable', and 'close to actual signing' (i.e. realistic) rendering of ASL finger-spelling. To accomplish this goal we have developed 20 animated clips of fingerspelled words and we have designed an experiment consisting of a web survey with rating questions. 71 subjects ages 19-45 participated in the study. Results showed that recognition of the words was correlated with the method used to animate the signs. In particular, keyframe technique produced the most accurate representation of the signs (i.e., participants were more likely to identify the words correctly in keyframed sequences rather than in motion captured ones). Further, findings showed that the animation method had an effect on the reported scores for readability and closeness to actual signing; the estimated marginal mean readability and closeness was greater for keyframed signs than for motion captured signs. To our knowledge, this is the first study aimed at measuring and comparing accuracy, readability and realism of ASL animations produced with different techniques.

Keywords: 3D Animation, American Sign Language, DeafEducation, Motion Capture.

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Authors: Abd Latif Abdul Rahman, Adnan Jamaludin, Zamalia Mahmud

Abstract:

Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model has demonstrated the influencing factors for generic information systems use such as tablet personal computer (TPC) and mobile communication. However, in the context of digital library system, there has been very little effort to determine factors affecting the intention to use digital library based on the UTAUT model. This paper investigates factors that are expected to influence the intention of postgraduate students to use digital library based on modified UTAUT model. The modified model comprises of constructs represented by several latent variables, namely performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), information quality (IQ) and service quality (SQ) and moderated by age, gender and experience in using digital library. Results show that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and information quality are positively related to the intention to use digital library, while service quality is negatively related to the intention to use digital library. Age and gender have shown no evidence of any significant interactions, while experience in using digital library significantly interacts with effort expectancy and intention to use digital library. This has provided the evidence of a moderating effect of experience in the intention to use digital library. It is expected that this research will shed new lights into research of acceptance and intention to use the library in a digital environment.

Keywords: Intention to use digital library, UTAUT model, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, information quality, service quality.

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Authors: Seyed Mohyeddin Ghodratian, Mehdi Ghassemieh, Mohammad Khanmohammadi

Abstract:

Excessive ductility demand on shorter piers is a common problem for irregular bridges subjected to strong ground motion. Various techniques have been developed to reduce the likelihood of collapse of bridge due to failure of shorter piers. This paper presents the new approach to improve the seismic behavior of such bridges using Nitinol shape memory alloys (SMAs). Superelastic SMAs have the ability to remain elastic under very large deformation due to martensitic transformation. This unique property leads to enhanced performance of controlled bridge compared with the performance of the reference bridge. To evaluate the effectiveness of the devices, nonlinear time history analysis is performed on a RC single column bent highway bridge using a suite of representative ground motions. The results show that this method is very effective in limiting the ductility demand of shorter pier.

Keywords: bridge, ductility demand, irregularity, shape memory alloy

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Authors: Changqiao Wu, Guoqing Ding, Xin Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, ways of modeling dynamic measurement systems are discussed. Specially, for linear system with single-input single-output, it could be modeled with shallow neural network. Then, gradient based optimization algorithms are used for searching the proper coefficients. Besides, method with normal equation and second order gradient descent are proposed to accelerate the modeling process, and ways of better gradient estimation are discussed. It shows that the mathematical essence of the learning objective is maximum likelihood with noises under Gaussian distribution. For conventional gradient descent, the mini-batch learning and gradient with momentum contribute to faster convergence and enhance model ability. Lastly, experimental results proved the effectiveness of second order gradient descent algorithm, and indicated that optimization with normal equation was the most suitable for linear dynamic models.

Keywords: Dynamic system modeling, neural network, normal equation, second order gradient descent.

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Authors: Kalangi Rodrigo, Kelum Manamendra-Arachchi

Abstract:

Bones, teeth, and shells have been acknowledged over the last two centuries as evidence of chronology, Palaeo-environment, and human activity. Faunal traces are valid evidence of past situations because they have properties that have not changed over long periods. Sri Lanka has been known as an Island, which has a diverse variety of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the Paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated 'on-site ' Palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5 degrees. Based on Semnopithecus Priam (Gray Langur) remains unearthed from wet zone prehistoric caves, it has been argued periods of momentous climate changes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Terminal Pleistocene/Early Holocene boundary, with a recognizable preference for semi-open ‘Intermediate’ rainforest or edges. Continuous genus Acavus and Oligospira occupation along with uninterrupted horizontal pervasive of Canarium sp. (‘kekuna’ nut) have proven that temperatures in the lowland rain forests have not changed by at least 5 °C over the last 50,000 years. Site catchment or territorial analysis cannot be any longer defensible, due to time-distance based factors as well as optimal foraging theory failed as a consequence of prehistoric people were aware of the decrease in cost-benefit ratio and located sites, and generally played out a settlement strategy that minimized the ratio of energy expended to energy produced.

Keywords: Palaeo-environment, palaeo-ecology, palaeo-climate, prehistory, zooarchaeology.

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score model, stock returns, time-varying.

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Authors: D.O. Omondi, M.K. Walingo, G.M. Mbagaya, L.O.A. Othuon

Abstract:

This study applied the Theory of Planned Behavior model in predicting dietary behavior among Type 2 diabetics in a Kenyan environment. The study was conducted for three months within the diabetic clinic at Kisii Hospital in Nyanza Province in Kenya and adopted sequential mixed methods design combing both qualitative and quantitative phases. Qualitative data was analyzed using grounded theory analysis method. Structural equation modeling using maximum likelihood was used to analyze quantitative data. The results based on the common fit indices revealed that the theory of planned behavior fitted the data acceptably well among the Type 2 diabetes and within dietary behavior {χ2 = 223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9, n=237; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)}. This implies that the Theory of Planned Behavior holds and forms a framework for promoting dietary practice among Type 2 diabetics.

Keywords: Dietary practice, Kenya, Theory of PlannedBehavior, Type 2 diabetes, Mixed Methods Design.

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Authors: Ali Gholami

Abstract:

In this research the Preparation of Land use map of scanner LISS III satellite data, belonging to the IRS in the Aghche region in Isfahan province, is studied carefully. For this purpose, the IRS satellite images of August 2008 and various land preparation uses in region including rangelands, irrigation farming, dry farming, gardens and urban areas were separated and identified. Therefore, the GPS and Erdas Imaging software were used and three methods of Maximum Likelihood, Mahalanobis Distance and Minimum Distance were analyzed. In each of these methods, matrix error and Kappa index were calculated and accuracy of each method, based on percentages: 53.13, 56.64 and 48.44, were obtained respectively. Considering the low accuracy of these methods in separation of land preparation use, the visual interpretation of the map was used. Finally, regional visits of 150 points were noted at random and no error was observed. It shows that the map prepared by visual interpretation is in high accuracy. Although the probable errors due to visual interpretation and geometric correction might happen but the desired accuracy of the map which is more than 85 percent is reliable.

Keywords: Land use map, Aghche Region, Erdas Imagine, satellite images

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: L. Fauziana, M. F. Siti Atiqah, Z. A. Ahmad Noor Syukri

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to identify seat belt wearing factor among road users in Malaysia. Evidence-based approach through in-depth crash investigation was utilised to determine the intended objectives. The objective was scoped into crashes investigated by Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS) involving passenger vehicles within 2007 and 2010. Crash information of a total of 99 crash cases involving 240 vehicles and 864 occupants were obtained during the study period. Statistical test and logistic regression analysis have been performed. Results of the analysis revealed that gender, seat position and age were associated with seat belt wearing compliance in Malaysia. Males are 97.6% more likely to wear seat belt compared to females (95% CI 1.317 to 2.964). By seat position, the finding indicates that frontal occupants were 82 times more likely to be wearing seat belt (95% CI 30.199 to 225.342) as compared to rear occupants. It is also important to note that the odds of seat belt wearing increased by about 2.64% (95% CI 1.0176 to 1.0353) for every one year increase in age. This study is essential in understanding the Malaysian tendency in belting up while being occupied in a vehicle. The factors highlighted in this study should be emphasized in road safety education in order to increase seat belt wearing rate in this country and ultimately in preventing deaths due to road crashes.

Keywords: crash investigation, risk compensation, road safety, seat belt wearing, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Mohamed Adnan Landolsi, Ali F. Almutairi

Abstract:

The paper addresses the problem of line-of-sight (LOS) vs. non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation link identification in ultra-wideband (UWB) wireless networks, which is necessary for improving the accuracy of radiolocation and positioning applications. A LOS/NLOS likelihood hypothesis testing approach is applied based on exploiting distinctive statistical features of the channel impulse response (CIR) using parameters related to the “skewness” of the CIR and its root mean square (RMS) delay spread. A log-normal fit is presented for the probability densities of the CIR parameters. Simulation results show that different environments (residential, office, outdoor, etc.) have measurable differences in their CIR parameters’ statistics, which is then exploited in determining the nature of the propagation channels. Correct LOS/NLOS channel identification rates exceeding 90% are shown to be achievable for most types of environments. Additional improvement is also obtained by combining both CIR skewness and RMS delay statistics.

Keywords: Ultra-wideband, propagation, line-of-sight, non-line-of-sight, identification.

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Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen

Abstract:

This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.

Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.

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Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

Abstract:

The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

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Authors: Mehdi Seifbarghy, Keyvan Roshan

Abstract:

Main goal of preventive healthcare problems are at decreasing the likelihood and severity of potentially life-threatening illnesses by protection and early detection. The levels of establishment and staffing costs along with summation of the travel and waiting time that clients spent are considered as objectives functions of the proposed nonlinear integer programming model. In this paper, we have proposed a bi-objective mathematical model for designing a network of preventive healthcare facilities so as to minimize aforementioned objectives, simultaneously. Moreover, each facility acts as M/M/1 queuing system. The number of facilities to be established, the location of each facility, and the level of technology for each facility to be chosen are provided as the main determinants of a healthcare facility network. Finally, to demonstrate performance of the proposed model, four multi-objective decision making techniques are presented to solve the model.

Keywords: Preventive healthcare problems, Non-linear integer programming models, Multi-objective decision making techniques

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Authors: Ernst D. Schmitter

Abstract:

There is increasing evidence that earthquakes produce electromagnetic signals observable at the surface in the extremely low to very low freqency (ELF - VLF) range often in advance to the main event. These precursors are candidates for prediction purposes. Laboratory experiments con´¼ürm that material under load emits an electromagnetic signature, the detailed generation mechanisms how- ever are not well understood yet.

Keywords: Earthquakes, ELF, EM signals from material under load, signal propagation in conductors.

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Authors: Naser Ahmadi Sani, Karim Solaimani, Lida Razaghnia, Jalal Zandi

Abstract:

In recent decades, rapid and incorrect changes in land-use have been associated with consequences such as natural resources degradation and environmental pollution. Detecting changes in land-use is one of the tools for natural resource management and assessment of changes in ecosystems. The target of this research is studying the land-use changes in Haraz basin with an area of 677000 hectares in a 15 years period (1996 to 2011) using LANDSAT data. Therefore, the quality of the images was first evaluated. Various enhancement methods for creating synthetic bonds were used in the analysis. Separate training sites were selected for each image. Then the images of each period were classified in 9 classes using supervised classification method and the maximum likelihood algorithm. Finally, the changes were extracted in GIS environment. The results showed that these changes are an alarm for the HARAZ basin status in future. The reason is that 27% of the area has been changed, which is related to changing the range lands to bare land and dry farming and also changing the dense forest to sparse forest, horticulture, farming land and residential area.

Keywords: HARAZ Basin, Change Detection, Land-use, Satellite Data.

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Authors: Somchai Supattarakul, Anya Khanthavit

Abstract:

This study aims at providing empirical evidence on a comparison of two equity valuation models: (1) the dividend discount model (DDM) and (2) the residual income model (RIM), in estimating equity values of Thai firms during 1995-2004. Results suggest that DDM and RIM underestimate equity values of Thai firms and that RIM outperforms DDM in predicting cross-sectional stock prices. Results on regression of cross-sectional stock prices on the decomposed DDM and RIM equity values indicate that book value of equity provides the greatest incremental explanatory power, relative to other components in DDM and RIM terminal values, suggesting that book value distortions resulting from accounting procedures and choices are less severe than forecast and measurement errors in discount rates and growth rates. We also document that the incremental explanatory power of book value of equity during 1998-2004, representing the information environment under Thai Accounting Standards reformed after the 1997 economic crisis to conform to International Accounting Standards, is significantly greater than that during 1995-1996, representing the information environment under the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards. This implies that the book value distortions are less severe under the 1997 Reformed Thai Accounting Standards than the pre-reformed Thai Accounting Standards.

Keywords: Dividend Discount Model, Equity Valuation Model, Residual Income Model, Thai Stock Market

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Authors: A. G. Margaryan

Abstract:

Ability of adaptation of the organism is considered as an important component of health in maintaining relative dynamic constancy of the hemostasis and functioning of all organs and systems. Among the various forms of adaptation (individual, species and mental), social adaptation of the organism has a particular role. The aim of this study was to evaluate the subjective perception of social factors, social welfare and the level of adaptability of Armenian physicians. The survey involved 2,167 physicians (592 men and 1,575 women). According to the survey, most physicians (75.1%) were married. It was found that 88.6% of respondents had harmonious family relationships, 7.6% of respondents – tense relationships, and 1.0% – marginal relationships. The results showed that the average monthly salary with all premium payments amounted to 88 263.6±5.0 drams, and 16.7% of physicians heavily relied on the material support of parents or other relatives. Low material welfare was also confirmed by the analysis of the living conditions. Analysis of the results showed that the degree of subjective perception of social factors of different specialties averaged 11.3±3.1 points, which corresponds to satisfactory results (a very good result – 4.0 points). The degree of social adaptation of physicians on average makes 4.13±1.9 points, which corresponds to poor results (allowable less than 3.0 points). The distribution of the results of social adaptation severity revealed that the majority of physicians (58.6%) showed low social adaptation, average social adaptation is observed in 22.4% of the physicians and high adaptation – in only 17.4% of physicians. In conclusions, the findings of this study suggest that the degree of social adaptation of currently practicing physicians is low.

Keywords: Physician's health, social adaptation, social factor, social health.

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Authors: Ali Mohammadi Torkashvand, Hamid Reza Alipour

Abstract:

This study investigates the possibility providing gully erosion map by the supervised classification of satellite images (ETM+) in two mountainous and plain land types. These land types were the part of Varamin plain, Tehran province, and Roodbar subbasin, Guilan province, as plain and mountain land types, respectively. The position of 652 and 124 ground control points were recorded by GPS respectively in mountain and plain land types. Soil gully erosion, land uses or plant covers were investigated in these points. Regarding ground control points and auxiliary points, training points of gully erosion and other surface features were introduced to software (Ilwis 3.3 Academic). The supervised classified map of gully erosion was prepared by maximum likelihood method and then, overall accuracy of this map was computed. Results showed that the possibility supervised classification of gully erosion isn-t possible, although it need more studies for results generalization to other mountainous regions. Also, with increasing land uses and other surface features in plain physiography, it decreases the classification of accuracy.

Keywords: Supervised classification, Gully erosion, Map.

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Authors: Zunaira Asif, Zhi Chen

Abstract:

The sustainable measures on air quality management are recognized as one of the most serious environmental concerns in the mining region. The mining operations emit various types of pollutants which have significant impacts on the environment. This study presents a stochastic control strategy by developing the air pollution control model to achieve a cost-effective solution. The optimization method is formulated to predict the cost of treatment using linear programming with an objective function and multi-constraints. The constraints mainly focus on two factors which are: production of metal should not exceed the available resources, and air quality should meet the standard criteria of the pollutant. The applicability of this model is explored through a case study of an open pit metal mine, Utah, USA. This method simultaneously uses meteorological data as a dispersion transfer function to support the practical local conditions. The probabilistic analysis and the uncertainties in the meteorological conditions are accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation. Reasonable results have been obtained to select the optimized treatment technology for PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO_x, and SO₂. Additional comparison analysis shows that baghouse is the least cost option as compared to electrostatic precipitator and wet scrubbers for particulate matter, whereas non-selective catalytical reduction and dry-flue gas desulfurization are suitable for NO_x and SO₂ reduction respectively. Thus, this model can aid planners to reduce these pollutants at a marginal cost by suggesting control pollution devices, while accounting for dynamic meteorological conditions and mining activities.

Keywords: Air pollution, linear programming, mining, optimization, treatment technologies.

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Authors: Jung-hoon Lee, Eung Tai Kim, Byung-hee Chang, In-hee Hwang, Dae-sung Lee

Abstract:

The accuracy of estimated stability and control derivatives of a light aircraft from flight test data were evaluated. The light aircraft, named ChangGong-91, is the first certified aircraft from the Korean government. The output error method, which is a maximum likelihood estimation technique and considers measurement noise only, was used to analyze the aircraft responses measures. The multi-step control inputs were applied in order to excite the short period mode for the longitudinal and Dutch-roll mode for the lateral-directional motion. The estimated stability/control derivatives of Chan Gong-91 were analyzed for the assessment of handling qualities comparing them with those of similar aircraft. The accuracy of the flight derivative estimates derived from flight test measurement was examined in engineering judgment, scatter and Cramer-Rao bound, which turned out to be satisfactory with minor defects..

Keywords: Light Aircraft, Flight Test, Accuracy, Engineering Judgment, Scatter, Cramer-Rao Bound

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