Search results for: Logarithmic population model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8169

Search results for: Logarithmic population model

8109 Swine Flu Transmission Model in Risk and Non-Risk Human Population

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

The Swine flu outbreak in humans is due to a new strain of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 that derives in part from human influenza, avian influenza, and two separated strains of swine influenza. It can be transmitted from human to human. A mathematical model for the transmission of Swine flu is developed in which the human populations are divided into two classes, the risk and non-risk human classes. Each class is separated into susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantine and recovered sub-classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Swine flu transmission and the repetitive contacts between the people are also considered. We analyze the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition of this disease is found and numerical results are shown to confirm our theoretical predictions.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Steady state, Swine flu, threshold condition.

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8108 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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8107 A Deep-Learning Based Prediction of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma with Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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8106 Islamic Finance: What Is the Outlook for Italy?

Authors: Paolo Pietro Biancone

Abstract:

The spread of Islamic financial instruments is an opportunity to offer integration for the immigrant population and to attract, through the specific products, the richness of sovereign funds from the "Arab" countries. However, it is important to consider the possibility of comparing a traditional finance model, which in recent times has given rise to many doubts, with an "alternative" finance model, where the ethical aspect arising from religious principles is very important.

Keywords: Banks, Europe, Islamic Finance, Italy.

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8105 Present State of Local Public Transportation Service in Local Municipalities of Japan and Its Effects on Population

Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

Abstract:

We are facing regional problems to low birth rate and longevity in Japan. Under this situation, there are some local municipalities which lose their vitality. The aims of this study are to clarify the present state of local public transportation services in local municipalities and relation between local public transportation services and population quantitatively. We conducted a questionnaire survey concerning regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the present state of convenience in use of public transportation and local public transportation services. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that we should some sort of measures concerning public transportation services. Convenience in use of public transportation becomes an object of public concern in many rural regions. It is also clarified that some local municipalities introduce a demand bus for the purpose of promotion of administrative and financial efficiency. They also introduce a demand taxi in order to secure transportation to weak people in transportation and eliminate of blank area related to public transportation services. In addition, we construct a population model which includes explanatory variables of present states of local public transportation services. From this result, we can clarify the relation between public transportation services and population quantitatively.

Keywords: Public transportation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue.

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8104 No one Set of Parameter Values Can Simulate the Epidemics Due to SARS Occurring at Different Localities

Authors: Weerachi Sarakorn, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS is developed. In addition to dividing the population into susceptible (high and low risk), exposed, infected, quarantined, diagnosed and recovered classes, we have included a class called untraced. The model simulates the Gompertz curves which are the best representation of the cumulative numbers of probable SARS cases in Hong Kong and Singapore. The values of the parameters in the model which produces the best fit of the observed data for each city are obtained by using a differential evolution algorithm. It is seen that the values for the parameters needed to simulate the observed daily behaviors of the two epidemics are different.

Keywords: SARS, mathematical modelling, differential evolution algorithm.

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8103 Applying Theory of Perceived Risk and Technology Acceptance Model in the Online Shopping Channel

Authors: Yong-Hui Li, Jing-Wen Huang

Abstract:

As the advancement of technology, online shopping channel develops rapidly in recent years. According to the report of Taiwan Network Information Center, there are almost eighty percents of internet population shopping in online channel. Synthesizing insights from the previous research, this study develops the conceptual model to integrate Theory of Perceived Risk (TPR) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to apply in online shopping. Using data collected from 637 respondents from online survey website, we use structural equation modeling to test measurement and structural models. The results suggest the need for consideration of perceived risk as an antecedent in the Technology Acceptance Model. The limitations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: perceived risk, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, behavioral intention, actual purchase behavior

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8102 TELUM Land Use Model: An Investigation of Data Requirements and Calibration Results for Chittenden County MPO, U.S.A.

Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.

Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

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8101 Sustainable Control of Taro Beetles via Scoliid Wasps and Metarhizium anisopliae

Authors: F. O. Faithpraise, J. Idung, C. R. Chatwin, R. C. D. Young, P. Birch, H. Lu

Abstract:

Taro Scarab beetles (Papuana uninodis, Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) inflict severe damage on important root crops and plants such as Taro or Cocoyam, yam, sweet potatoes, oil palm and coffee tea plants across Africa and Asia resulting in economic hardship and starvation in some nations. Scoliid wasps and Metarhizium anisopliae fungus - bio-control agents; are shown to be able to control the population of Scarab beetle adults and larvae using a newly created simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations that track the populations of the beetle life cycle stages: egg, larva, pupa, adult and the population of the scoliid parasitoid wasps, which attack beetle larvae. In spite of the challenge driven by the longevity of the scarab beetles, the combined effect of the larval wasps and the fungal bio-control agent is able to control and drive down the population of both the adult and the beetle eggs below the environmental carrying capacity within an interval of 120 days, offering the long term prospect of a stable and eco-friendly environment; where the population of scarab beetles is: regulated by parasitoid wasps and beneficial soil saprophytes.

Keywords: Metarhizium anisopliae, Scoliid wasps, Sustainable control, Taro beetles, parasitoids.

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8100 The Role of Female Population as a Consumer in Modern Marketing Strategy and Management

Authors: Jana Aleksić, Marijana Petković

Abstract:

Female population has an increasing role when it comes to purchase. Consequently, the female population has a greater role in modern marketing. Although it is thought that women buy more than men, marketing strategy was not directed specifically towards women. The thing that has changed regarding women’s role in modern marketing is the fact that the female population has a leading position when it comes to decision making in various fields and various sectors, which was not the case in the past. Marketing should be directed towards women but it should be done in the right way. Compared to men, women buy in a different way, and they look for more various advantages in the product itself, than men do. This paper aims to show the importance of the female role in the modern marketing and management and to redirect marketing in some way towards female population through new marketing strategies and management systems. Hypothesis is that women have an important role in marketing, and marketing strategy of modern society could and should be based on and directed towards female population and their tastes when it comes to purchasing. It is necessary and desirable to apply marketing strategy with a special strategy that has an emphasis on women and their purchase or in a word to apply WS- woman strategy. This research was carried out as a random sample research, where were obtained 212 valid surveys whose results serve as a basis for drawing conclusions about the research as well as to verify the formulated hypotheses. The research was carried out during 2011 and 2012. The study has shown a significant role of the female population in the marketing process.

Keywords: Marketing, management, female, purchase, strategy.

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8099 Multi-Objective Analysis of Cost and Social Benefits in Rural Road Networks

Authors: J. K. Shrestha, A. Benta, R. B. Lopes, N. Lopes

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective model for addressing two main objectives in designing rural roads networks: minimization of user operation costs and maximization of population covered. As limited budgets often exist, a reasonable trade-off must be obtained in order to account for both cost and social benefits in this type of networks. For a real-world rural road network, the model is solved, where all non-dominated solutions were obtained. Afterwards, an analysis is made on the (possibly) most interesting solutions (the ones providing better trade-offs). This analysis, coupled with the knowledge of the real world scenario (typically provided by decision makers) provides a suitable method for the evaluation of road networks in rural areas of developing countries.

Keywords: Multi-objective, user operation cost, population covered, rural road network.

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8098 Non-Population Search Algorithms for Capacitated Material Requirement Planning in Multi-Stage Assembly Flow Shop with Alternative Machines

Authors: Watcharapan Sukkerd, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

Abstract:

This paper aims to present non-population search algorithms called tabu search (TS), simulated annealing (SA) and variable neighborhood search (VNS) to minimize the total cost of capacitated MRP problem in multi-stage assembly flow shop with two alternative machines. There are three main steps for the algorithm. Firstly, an initial sequence of orders is constructed by a simple due date-based dispatching rule. Secondly, the sequence of orders is repeatedly improved to reduce the total cost by applying TS, SA and VNS separately. Finally, the total cost is further reduced by optimizing the start time of each operation using the linear programming (LP) model. Parameters of the algorithm are tuned by using real data from automotive companies. The result shows that VNS significantly outperforms TS, SA and the existing algorithm.

Keywords: Capacitated MRP, non-population search algorithms, linear programming, assembly flow shop.

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8097 Analysis of a Mathematical Model for Dengue Disease in Pregnant Cases

Authors: Rujira Kongnuy, Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

Dengue fever is an important human arboviral disease. Outbreaks are now reported quite often from many parts of the world. The number of cases involving pregnant women and infant cases are increasing every year. The illness is often severe and complications may occur. Deaths often occur because of the difficulties in early diagnosis and in the improper management of the diseases. Dengue antibodies from pregnant women are passed on to infants and this protects the infants from dengue infections. Antibodies from the mother are transferred to the fetus when it is still in the womb. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to describe the transmission of this disease in pregnant women. The model is formulated by dividing the human population into pregnant women and non-pregnant human (men and non-pregnant women). Each class is subdivided into susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) subclasses. We apply standard dynamical analysis to our model. Conditions for the local stability of the equilibrium points are given. The numerical simulations are shown. The bifurcation diagrams of our model are discussed. The control of this disease in pregnant women is discussed in terms of the threshold conditions.

Keywords: Dengue disease, local stability, mathematical model, pregnancy.

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8096 Application of Differential Transformation Method for Solving Dynamical Transmission of Lassa Fever Model

Authors: M. A. Omoloye, M. I. Yusuff, O. K. S. Emiola

Abstract:

The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.

Keywords: Differential Transform Method, Existence and uniqueness, Lassa fever, Runge-Kutta Method.

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8095 An Adaptive Memetic Algorithm With Dynamic Population Management for Designing HIV Multidrug Therapies

Authors: Hassan Zarei, Ali Vahidian Kamyad, Sohrab Effati

Abstract:

In this paper, a mathematical model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is utilized and an optimization problem is proposed, with the final goal of implementing an optimal 900-day structured treatment interruption (STI) protocol. Two type of commonly used drugs in highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), reverse transcriptase inhibitors (RTI) and protease inhibitors (PI), are considered. In order to solving the proposed optimization problem an adaptive memetic algorithm with population management (AMAPM) is proposed. The AMAPM uses a distance measure to control the diversity of population in genotype space and thus preventing the stagnation and premature convergence. Moreover, the AMAPM uses diversity parameter in phenotype space to dynamically set the population size and the number of crossovers during the search process. Three crossover operators diversify the population, simultaneously. The progresses of crossover operators are utilized to set the number of each crossover per generation. In order to escaping the local optima and introducing the new search directions toward the global optima, two local searchers assist the evolutionary process. In contrast to traditional memetic algorithms, the activation of these local searchers is not random and depends on both the diversity parameters in genotype space and phenotype space. The capability of AMAPM in finding optimal solutions compared with three popular metaheurestics is introduced.

Keywords: HIV therapy design, memetic algorithms, adaptivealgorithms, nonlinear integer programming.

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8094 Integrating PZB Model and TRIZ for Service Innovation of Tele-Healthcare

Authors: Chuang-Chun Chiou, Chien-Ju Liu, Jenteng Tsai

Abstract:

Due to the rise of aging population, effective utilization of healthcare resources has become an important issue. With the advance of ICT technology, the application of tele-healthcare service has received more attention than ever. The main purpose of this research is to investigate how to conduct innovative design for tele-healthcare service based on user-s perspectives. First, the healthcare service blueprint was used to describe the processes of tele-healthcare service delivery, and then construct PZB service quality gap model based on the literature and practitioners- interviews. Next, TRIZ theory is applied to implement service innovation. We found the proposed service innovation procedures can effectively improve the quality of service design.

Keywords: Tele-homecare, Service blueprint, TRIZ, PZB model

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8093 A Survey of Model Comparison Strategies and Techniques in Model Driven Engineering

Authors: Junaid Rashid, Waqar Mehmood, Muhammad Wasif Nisar

Abstract:

This survey paper shows the recent state of model comparison as it’s applies to Model Driven engineering. In Model Driven Engineering to calculate the difference between the models is a very important and challenging task. There are number of tasks involved in model differencing that firstly starts with identifying and matching the elements of the model. In this paper, we discuss how model matching is accomplished, the strategies, techniques and the types of the model. We also discuss the future direction. We found out that many of the latest model comparison strategies are geared near enabling Meta model and similarity based matching. Therefore model versioning is the most dominant application of the model comparison. Recently to work on comparison for versioning has begun to deteriorate, giving way to different applications. Ultimately there is wide change among the tools in the measure of client exertion needed to perform model comparisons, as some require more push to encourage more sweeping statement and expressive force.

Keywords: Model comparison, model clone detection, model versioning, EMF Model, model diff.

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8092 A Structural Equation Model of Knowledge Management Based On Organizational Climate in Universities

Authors: F. Nazem, M. Mozaiini, A. Seifi

Abstract:

The purpose of the present study was to provide a structural model of knowledge management in universities based on organizational climate. The population of the research included all employees of Islamic Azad University (IAU). The sample consisted of 1590 employees selected using stratified and cluster random sampling method. The research instruments were two questionnaires which were administered in 78 IAU branches and education centers: Sallis and Jones’s (2002) Knowledge Management Questionnaire (α= 0.97); and Latwin & Stringer’s (1968) Organizational Climate Questionnaire (α= 0.83). The results of path analysis using LISREL software indicated that dimensions of organizational climate had a direct effect on knowledge management with the indices of 0.94. The model also showed that the factor of support in organizational climate had the highest direct effect on the knowledge management.

Keywords: Knowledge management, Organizational climate, Structural model, Universities.

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8091 Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Leptospirosis in Juvennile and Adults Humans

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Leptospirosis occurs worldwide (except the poles of the earth), urban and rural areas, developed and developing countries, especially in Thailand. It can be transmitted to the human by rats through direct and indirect ways. Human can be infected by either touching the infected rats or contacting with water, soil containing urine from the infected rats through skin, eyes and nose. The data of the people who are infected with this disease indicates that most of the patients are adults. The transmission of this disease is studied through mathematical model. The population is separated into human and rat. The human is divided into two classes, namely juvenile and adult. The model equation is constructed for each class. The standard dynamical modeling method is then used for analyzing the behaviours of solutions. In addition, the conditions of the parameters for the disease free and endemic states are obtained. Numerical solutions are shown to support the theoretical predictions. The results of this study guide the way to decrease the disease outbreak.

Keywords: Adult human, juvenile human, leptospirosis, mathematical model.

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8090 Effect of Butachlor on the Microbial Population of Direct Sown Rice

Authors: Kalyanasundaram.D., Kavitha. S

Abstract:

Field experiments were conducted at Annamalai University Experimental Farm, Department of Agronomy; to device suitable weed control measures for direct seeded puddled rice and to study the effect of the weed control measures on the soil microbial population. The treatments comprised of incorporation of pressmud @ 6.25 t ha-1 and application of herbicide butachlor @1.5 kg a. i. ha- 1 with and without safener 4 days after sowing (DAS), 8 DAS alone and also in conjunction with hand weeding at 30 DAS. Hand weeding twice and a weedy check were also maintained. At maximum tillering stage, the population of bacteria was significantly reduced by butachlor application. The injury to microbes caused by herbicide disappeared with the advancement of crop's age and at flowering stage of crop, there was no significant difference among the treatments. The fungal and actinomycetes population remained unaltered by weed control treatments at both the stages of observation.

Keywords: Butachlor, Herbicide, Direct sown rice, Microbial population

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8089 Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Two Plasmodium Malaria

Authors: P. Pongsumpun

Abstract:

Malaria is transmitted to the human by biting of infected Anopheles mosquitoes. This disease is a serious, acute and chronic relapsing infection to humans. Fever, nausea, vomiting, back pain, increased sweating anemia and splenomegaly (enlargement of the spleen) are the symptoms of the patients who infected with this disease. It is caused by the multiplication of protozoa parasite of the genus Plasmodium. Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale are the four types of Plasmodium malaria. A mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium Malaria is developed in which the human and vector population are divided into two classes, the susceptible and the infectious classes. In this paper, we formulate the dynamical model of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The standard dynamical analysis is used for analyzing the behavior for the transmission of this disease. The Threshold condition is found and numerical results are shown to confirm the analytical results.

Keywords: Dynamical analysis, Malaria, mathematical model, threshold condition.

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8088 Influence of the Compression Force and Powder Particle Size on Some Physical Properties of Date Fruit (Phoenix dactylifera) Tablets

Authors: Djemaa Megdoud, Messaoud Boudaa, Fatima Ouamrane, Salem Benamara

Abstract:

In recent years, the compression of date (Phoenix dactylifera L.) fruit powders (DP) to obtain date tablets (DT) has been suggested as a promising form of valorization of non commercial valuable date fruit (DF) varieties. To further improve and characterize DT, the present study aims to investigate the influence of the DP particle size and compression force on some physical properties of DT. The results show that independently of particle size, the hardness (y) of tablets increases with the increase of the compression force (x) following a logarithmic law (y = a ln (bx) where a and b are the constants of model). Further, a full factorial design (FFD) at two levels, applied to investigate the erosion %, reveals that the effects of time and particle size are the same in absolute value and they are beyond the effect of the compression. Regarding the disintegration time, the obtained results also by means of a FFD show that the effect of the compression force exceeds 4 times that of the DP particle size. As final stage, the color parameters in the CIELab system of DT immediately after their obtaining are differently influenced by the size of the initial powder.

Keywords: Powder, valorization, tablets, date fruit (Phoenix dactylifera L.), hardness, erosion, disintegration time, color.

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8087 A Decision Boundary based Discretization Technique using Resampling

Authors: Taimur Qureshi, Djamel A Zighed

Abstract:

Many supervised induction algorithms require discrete data, even while real data often comes in a discrete and continuous formats. Quality discretization of continuous attributes is an important problem that has effects on speed, accuracy and understandability of the induction models. Usually, discretization and other types of statistical processes are applied to subsets of the population as the entire population is practically inaccessible. For this reason we argue that the discretization performed on a sample of the population is only an estimate of the entire population. Most of the existing discretization methods, partition the attribute range into two or several intervals using a single or a set of cut points. In this paper, we introduce a technique by using resampling (such as bootstrap) to generate a set of candidate discretization points and thus, improving the discretization quality by providing a better estimation towards the entire population. Thus, the goal of this paper is to observe whether the resampling technique can lead to better discretization points, which opens up a new paradigm to construction of soft decision trees.

Keywords: Bootstrap, discretization, resampling, soft decision trees.

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8086 Case Study of the Exercise Habits and Aging Anxiety of Taiwanese Insurance Agents

Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

Abstract:

The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: Insurance agent, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly.

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8085 The Links between Cardiovascular Risk and Psychological Wellbeing in Elderly

Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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8084 Radiation Safety of Population in the Region of NPP-2006/MIR-1200 Site

Authors: V. Bezlepkin, M. Karaseva, A. Frolov, E. Kharchenko, L. Lebedev

Abstract:

The main features of NPP-2006/MIR-1200 design are described. Estimation of individual doses for population under normal operation and accident conditions is performed for Leningradskaya NPP – 2 as an example. The radiation effect on population and environment doesn-t exceed the established normative limit and is as low as reasonably achievable. NPP- 2006/MIR-1200 design meets all Russian and international requirements for power units under construction.

Keywords: Accident release, beyond design basis accident (BDBA), nuclear power plant (NPP), radiation safety.

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8083 Optimum Stratification of a Skewed Population

Authors: D.K. Rao, M.G.M. Khan, K.G. Reddy

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries(OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy isskewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB isformulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: Stratified sampling, Optimum strata boundaries, Optimum sample size, Pareto distribution, Mathematical programming problem, Dynamic programming technique.

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8082 An Application of Self-Health Risk Assessment among Populations Living in the Vicinity of a Fiber-Cement Roofing Factory

Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5km of factory) (N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04%) (p =0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67%, respectively) (p <0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p<0.001 for females; p = 0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: Cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey.

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8081 Well-Being Inequality Using Superimposing Satisfaction Waves: Heisenberg Uncertainty in Behavioural Economics and Econometrics

Authors: Okay Gunes

Abstract:

In this article, a new method is proposed for the measuring of well-being inequality through a model composed of superimposing satisfaction waves. The displacement of households’ satisfactory state (i.e. satisfaction) is defined in a satisfaction string. The duration of the satisfactory state for a given period is measured in order to determine the relationship between utility and total satisfactory time, itself dependent on the density and tension of each satisfaction string. Thus, individual cardinal total satisfaction values are computed by way of a one-dimensional form for scalar sinusoidal (harmonic) moving wave function, using satisfaction waves with varying amplitudes and frequencies which allow us to measure wellbeing inequality. One advantage to using satisfaction waves is the ability to show that individual utility and consumption amounts would probably not commute; hence, it is impossible to measure or to know simultaneously the values of these observables from the dataset. Thus, we crystallize the problem by using a Heisenberg-type uncertainty resolution for self-adjoint economic operators. We propose to eliminate any estimation bias by correlating the standard deviations of selected economic operators; this is achieved by replacing the aforementioned observed uncertainties with households’ perceived uncertainties (i.e. corrected standard deviations) obtained through the logarithmic psychophysical law proposed by Weber and Fechner.

Keywords: Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, superimposing satisfaction waves, Weber–Fechner law, well-being inequality.

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8080 Using SNAP and RADTRAD to Establish the Analysis Model for Maanshan PWR Plant

Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen, J. H. Yang, Y. Chiang

Abstract:

In this study, we focus on the establishment of the analysis model for Maanshan PWR nuclear power plant (NPP) by using RADTRAD and SNAP codes with the FSAR, manuals, and other data. In order to evaluate the cumulative dose at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) and Low Population Zone (LPZ) outer boundary, Maanshan NPP RADTRAD/SNAP model was used to perform the analysis of the DBA LOCA case. The analysis results of RADTRAD were similar to FSAR data. These analysis results were lower than the failure criteria of 10 CFR 100.11 (a total radiation dose to the whole body, 250 mSv; a total radiation dose to the thyroid from iodine exposure, 3000 mSv).

Keywords: RADionuclide, transport, removal, and dose estimation, RADTRAD, symbolic nuclear analysis package, SNAP, dose, PWR.

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