Search results for: Limited Feedback

Authors: Suraiya Jabin, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

Abstract:

In the recent past Learning Classifier Systems have been successfully used for data mining. Learning Classifier System (LCS) is basically a machine learning technique which combines evolutionary computing, reinforcement learning, supervised or unsupervised learning and heuristics to produce adaptive systems. A LCS learns by interacting with an environment from which it receives feedback in the form of numerical reward. Learning is achieved by trying to maximize the amount of reward received. All LCSs models more or less, comprise four main components; a finite population of condition–action rules, called classifiers; the performance component, which governs the interaction with the environment; the credit assignment component, which distributes the reward received from the environment to the classifiers accountable for the rewards obtained; the discovery component, which is responsible for discovering better rules and improving existing ones through a genetic algorithm. The concatenate of the production rules in the LCS form the genotype, and therefore the GA should operate on a population of classifier systems. This approach is known as the 'Pittsburgh' Classifier Systems. Other LCS that perform their GA at the rule level within a population are known as 'Mitchigan' Classifier Systems. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard production rules (PRs) in the form of IF P THEN D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle exceptions and do not exhibit variable precision. The Censored Production Rules (CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by Michalski and Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: IF P THEN D UNLESS C, where Censor C is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations, in which conditional statement IF P THEN D holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus, the IF P THEN D part of CPR expresses important information, while the UNLESS C part acts only as a switch and changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper Pittsburgh style LCSs approach is used for automated discovery of CPRs. An appropriate encoding scheme is suggested to represent a chromosome consisting of fixed size set of CPRs. Suitable genetic operators are designed for the set of CPRs and individual CPRs and also appropriate fitness function is proposed that incorporates basic constraints on CPR. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed learning classifier system.

Keywords: Censored Production Rule, Data Mining, GeneticAlgorithm, Learning Classifier System, Machine Learning, PittsburgApproach, , Reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

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Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: Anita, Sari Septiani Tangke, Rusdina Bte Ladju, Nasrum Massi

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New diagnostic tools are urgently needed to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. The microscopic-observation drug-susceptibility (MODS) assay is a rapid, accurate and simple liquid culture method to detect multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). MODS were evaluated to determine a lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin for detection of MDR-TB. Direct drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the MODS assay. Drug-sensitive control strains were tested daily. The drug concentrations that used for both isoniazid and rifampin were at the same concentration: 0.16, 0.08 and 0.04μg per milliliter. We tested 56 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates and the control strains M. tuberculosis H37RV. All concentration showed same result. Of 53 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates, 14 were MDR-TB, 38 were susceptible with isoniazid and rifampin, 1 was resistant with isoniazid only. Drug-susceptibility testing was performed with the use of the proportion method using Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) system as reference. The result of MODS assay using lower concentration was significance (P<0.001) compare with the reference methods.

A lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin can be used to detect MDR-TB. Operational cost and application can be more efficient and easier in resource-limited environments. However, additional studies evaluating the MODS using lower and same concentration of isoniazid and rifampin must be conducted with a larger number of clinical isolates.

Keywords: Isoniazid, MODS assay, MDR-TB, Rifampin.

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Authors: Libin Ouyang

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China has experienced a very fast urbanization process in the past two decades. Due to the uncoordinated characteristics of regional development in China, a large number of people from rural areas or small towns have flooded into regional central cities, which are building new cities around them due to the shortage of construction land or the need for urban development. However, the construction of some new cities has not achieved the expected effect, the absorption capacity of industry and population is limited, and the phenomenon of capital and land waste is obvious. This paper takes Xixian New Area in Shaanxi Province, an inland area in Northwest China, as an example, and tries to analyze the reasons for the lack of vitality in Xixian New Area from the perspectives of land use layout and urban design. This paper will also select the Energy-Finance-Trade Start-up Area in Xixian New Area as an important research site, and study how to optimize the land use layout and urban design to ease the population of big cities, effectively solve the problems of big cities, improve the vitality and attractiveness of the new city, and promote the sustainable development of the new city. The study can provide reference for urban planning practitioners and policy makers, provide theoretical help for the construction of new cities in other underdeveloped regions of China, and provide certain case references for the construction of cities in other developing countries in the process of rapid urbanization.

Keywords: New city, land use layout, urban design, urban planning.

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Authors: Deng Zengming, Wang Mingjiang

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As 3D video is explored as a hot research topic in the last few decades, free-viewpoint TV (FTV) is no doubt a promising field for its better visual experience and incomparable interactivity. View synthesis is obviously a crucial technology for FTV; it enables to render images in unlimited numbers of virtual viewpoints with the information from limited numbers of reference view. In this paper, a novel hybrid synthesis framework is proposed and blending priority is explored. In contrast to the commonly used View Synthesis Reference Software (VSRS), the presented synthesis process is driven in consideration of the temporal correlation of image sequences. The temporal correlations will be exploited to produce fine synthesis results even near the foreground boundaries. As for the blending priority, this scheme proposed that one of the two reference views is selected to be the main reference view based on the distance between the reference views and virtual view, another view is chosen as the auxiliary viewpoint, just assist to fill the hole pixel with the help of background information. Significant improvement of the proposed approach over the state-of –the-art pixel-based virtual view synthesis method is presented, the results of the experiments show that subjective gains can be observed, and objective PSNR average gains range from 0.5 to 1.3 dB, while SSIM average gains range from 0.01 to 0.05.

Keywords: View synthesis, Gaussian mixture model, hybrid framework, fusion method.

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Authors: M. Alwetaishi

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One of the most common and traditional strategies in architecture is to design buildings passively. This is a way to ensure low building energy reliance with respect to specific micro-building locations. There are so many ways where buildings can be designed passively, some of which are applying thermal insulation, thermal mass, courtyard and glazing to wall ratio. This research investigates the impact of each of these aspects with respect to the hot and dry climate of the capital of Riyadh. Thermal Analysis Simulation (TAS) will be utilized which is powered by Environmental Design Simulation Limited company (EDSL). It is considered as one of the most powerful tools to predict energy performance in buildings. There are three primary building designs and methods which are using courtyard, thermal mass and thermal insulation. The same building size and fabrication properties have been applied to all designs. Riyadh city which is the capital of the country was taken as a case study of the research. The research has taken into account various zone directions within the building as it has a large contribution to indoor energy and thermal performance. It is revealed that it is possible to achieve nearly zero carbon building in the hot and dry region in winter with minimum reliance on energy loads for building zones facing south, west and east. Moreover, using courtyard is more beneficial than applying construction materials into building envelope. Glazing to wall ratio is recommended to be 10% and not exceeding 30% in all directions in hot and arid regions.

Keywords: Sustainable buildings, hot and arid climates, passive building design, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Mohd Yussni Hashim, Mohd Nazrul Roslan, Azriszul Mohd Amin, Ahmad Mujahid Ahmad Zaidi, Saparudin Ariffin

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Environmental awareness and depletion of the petroleum resources are among vital factors that motivate a number of researchers to explore the potential of reusing natural fiber as an alternative composite material in industries such as packaging, automotive and building constructions. Natural fibers are available in abundance, low cost, lightweight polymer composite and most importance its biodegradability features, which often called “ecofriendly" materials. However, their applications are still limited due to several factors like moisture absorption, poor wettability and large scattering in mechanical properties. Among the main challenges on natural fibers reinforced matrices composite is their inclination to entangle and form fibers agglomerates during processing due to fiber-fiber interaction. This tends to prevent better dispersion of the fibers into the matrix, resulting in poor interfacial adhesion between the hydrophobic matrix and the hydrophilic reinforced natural fiber. Therefore, to overcome this challenge, fiber treatment process is one common alternative that can be use to modify the fiber surface topology by chemically, physically or mechanically technique. Nevertheless, this paper attempt to focus on the effect of mercerization treatment on mechanical properties enhancement of natural fiber reinforced composite or so-called bio composite. It specifically discussed on mercerization parameters, and natural fiber reinforced composite mechanical properties enhancement.

Keywords: Mercerization treatment, mechanical properties, natural fiber and bio composite

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Authors: E. Moradimaram, H. Sayehvand

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In recent years the increasing use of fossil fuels has led to various environmental problems including urban pollution, ozone layer depletion and acid rains. Moreover, with the increased number of industrial centers and higher consumption of these fuels, the end point of the fossil energy reserves has become more evident. Considering the environmental pollution caused by fossil fuels and their limited availability, renewable sources can be considered as the main substitute for non-renewable resources. One of these resources is the Organic Rankine Cycles (ORCs). These cycles while having high safety, have low maintenance requirements. Combining the ORCs with other systems, such as ejector and reheater will increase overall cycle efficiency. In this study, ejector and reheater are used to improve the thermal efficiency (ηth), exergy efficiency (η_ex) and net output power (w_net); therefore, the ORCs with reheater (RORCs) are proposed. A computational program has been developed to calculate the thermodynamic parameters required in Engineering Equations Solver (EES). In this program, the analysis of the first and second law in RORC is conducted, and a comparison is made between them and the ORCs with Ejector (EORC). R245fa is selected as the working fluid and water is chosen as low temperature heat source with a temperature of 95 °C and a mass transfer rate of 1 kg/s. The pressures of the second evaporator and reheater are optimized in terms of maximum exergy efficiency. The environment is at 298.15 k and at 101.325 kpa. The results indicate that the thermodynamic parameters in the RORC have improved compared to EORC.

Keywords: Organic rankine cycle, organic rankine cycle with reheater, organic rankine cycle with ejector, exergy efficiency.

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Authors: S. V. Sanaye, H. S. Dhaker, R. M. Tibile, V. D. Mhatre

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Larval rearing and seed production of most of tetra fishes (Family: Characidae) is critical due to their small size larvae and limited numbers of spawning attempts. During the present study the effect of different live foods on growth and survival of neon tetra, Paracheirodon innesi larvae (length 3.1 ± 0.012mm, weight 0.048 ± 0.00015mg) and early fry (length = 6.44 ± 0.025mm, weight = 0.64 ± 0.003mg and 13 days old) was determined in two experiments. Experiment I was conducted for rearing the larvae by using mixed green water and Infusoria whereas, in Experiment II, early fry were fed with mixed zooplankton, decapsulated Artemia cyst and Artemia nauplii. The larvae fed on mixed green water showed significant (p<0.05) growth and survival when compared to those fed with infusoria. Similarly, the larvae fed with mixed zooplankton exhibited higher growth in terms of length gain (131.98%), weight gain (6658.78%), SGR (14.04%) and survival (95.23%) compared to the other treatments of decapsulated Artemia cyst and Artemia nauplii. The present study concluded that mixed green water and mixed zooplankton should be used as food for better growth and survival of the larvae and early fry of P. innesi, respectively.

Keywords: Growth, Mixed Green water, mixed zooplankton, Neon tetra, Paracheirodon innesi.

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Authors: F. Jiménez, R. Jódar, M. Martín, G. Sánchez, G. Sciavicco

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Abstract—Attribute or feature selection is one of the basic strategies to improve the performances of data classification tasks, and, at the same time, to reduce the complexity of classifiers, and it is a particularly fundamental one when the number of attributes is relatively high. Its application to unsupervised classification is restricted to a limited number of experiments in the literature. Evolutionary computation has already proven itself to be a very effective choice to consistently reduce the number of attributes towards a better classification rate and a simpler semantic interpretation of the inferred classifiers. We present a feature selection wrapper model composed by a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the clustering method Expectation-Maximization (EM), and the classifier C4.5 for the unsupervised classification of data extracted from a psychological test named BASC-II (Behavior Assessment System for Children - II ed.) with two objectives: Maximizing the likelihood of the clustering model and maximizing the accuracy of the obtained classifier. We present a methodology to integrate feature selection for unsupervised classification, model evaluation, decision making (to choose the most satisfactory model according to a a posteriori process in a multi-objective context), and testing. We compare the performance of the classifier obtained by the multi-objective evolutionary algorithms ENORA and NSGA-II, and the best solution is then validated by the psychologists that collected the data.

Keywords: Feature selection, multi-objective evolutionary computation, unsupervised classification, behavior assessment system for children.

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Authors: Yogesh C. Sharma, A. Seetharaman

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The decision-making process in humans is a complicated system influenced by a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Human decisions have a ripple effect on subsequent decisions. In this study, the scope of human decision making is limited to employees. In an organisation, a person makes a variety of decisions from the time they are hired to the time they retire. The goal of this research is to identify various elements that influence decision making. In addition, the environment in which a decision is made is a significant aspect of the decision-making process. Employees in today's workplace use artificial intelligence (AI) systems for automation and decision augmentation. The impact of AI systems on the decision-making process is examined in this study. This research is designed based on a systematic literature review. Based on gaps in the literature, limitations and the scope of future research have been identified. Based on these findings, a research framework has been designed to identify various factors affecting employee decision making. Employee decision making is influenced by technological advancement, data-driven culture, human trust, decision automation-augmentation and workplace motivation. Hybrid human-AI systems require development of new skill sets and organisational design. Employee psychological safety and supportive leadership influences overall job satisfaction.

Keywords: Employee decision making, artificial intelligence, environment, human trust, technology innovation, psychological safety.

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

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Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: Marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies.

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Authors: Kyung Bae Park, Sung Ho Ha

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Online user-generated contents (UGC) significantly change the way customers behave (e.g., shop, travel), and a pressing need to handle the overwhelmingly plethora amount of various UGC is one of the paramount issues for management. However, a current approach (e.g., sentiment analysis) is often ineffective for leveraging textual information to detect the problems or issues that a certain management suffers from. In this paper, we employ text mining of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) on a popular online review site dedicated to complaint from users. We find that the employed LDA efficiently detects customer complaints, and a further inspection with the visualization technique is effective to categorize the problems or issues. As such, management can identify the issues at stake and prioritize them accordingly in a timely manner given the limited amount of resources. The findings provide managerial insights into how analytics on social media can help maintain and improve their reputation management. Our interdisciplinary approach also highlights several insights by applying machine learning techniques in marketing research domain. On a broader technical note, this paper illustrates the details of how to implement LDA in R program from a beginning (data collection in R) to an end (LDA analysis in R) since the instruction is still largely undocumented. In this regard, it will help lower the boundary for interdisciplinary researcher to conduct related research.

Keywords: Latent Dirichlet allocation, R program, text mining, topic model, user generated contents, visualization.

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Authors: Kurniawan D. Irianto, Demetres D. Kouvatsos

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The growth of wireless devices affects the availability of limited frequencies or spectrum bands as it has been known that spectrum bands are a natural resource that cannot be added. Meanwhile, the licensed frequencies are idle most of the time. Cognitive radio is one of the solutions to solve those problems. Cognitive radio is a promising technology that allows the unlicensed users known as secondary users (SUs) to access licensed bands without making interference to licensed users or primary users (PUs). As cloud computing has become popular in recent years, cognitive radio networks (CRNs) can be integrated with cloud platform. One of the important issues in CRNs is security. It becomes a problem since CRNs use radio frequencies as a medium for transmitting and CRNs share the same issues with wireless communication systems. Another critical issue in CRNs is performance. Security has adverse effect to performance and there are trade-offs between them. The goal of this paper is to investigate the performance related to security trade-off in CRNs with supporting cloud platforms. Furthermore, Queuing Network Models with preemptive resume and preemptive repeat identical priority are applied in this project to measure the impact of security to performance in CRNs with or without cloud platform. The generalized exponential (GE) type distribution is used to reflect the bursty inter-arrival and service times at the servers. The results show that the best performance is obtained when security is disabled and cloud platform is enabled.

Keywords: Cloud Platforms, Cognitive Radio Networks, GEtype Distribution, Performance Vs Security.

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Authors: A. A. Ghanim

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is heading towards a severe and rapidly expanding water crisis, which can have negative impacts on the country’s environment and economy. Of the total water consumption in KSA, the agricultural sector accounts for nearly 87% of the total water use and, therefore, any attempt that overlooks this sector will not help in improving the sustainability of the country’s water resources. KSA Vision 2030 gives priority of water use in the agriculture sector for the regions that have natural renewable water resources. It means that there is little concern for making reuse of municipal wastewater for irrigation purposes in any region in general and in water-scarce regions in particular. The use of treated wastewater is very limited in Saudi Arabia, but it has very considerable potential for future expansion due its numerous beneficial uses. This study reviews the current situation of water resources in Saudi Arabia, providing more highlights on agriculture and wastewater reuse. The reviewed study is proposing some corrective measures for development and better management of water resources in the Kingdom. Suggestions also include consideration of treated water as an alternative source for irrigation in some regions of the country. The study concluded that a sustainable solution for the water crisis in KSA requires implementation of multiple measures in an integrated manner. The integrated solution plan should focus on two main directions: first, improving the current management practices of the existing water resources; second, developing new water supplies from both conventional and non-conventional sources.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, water resources, water crisis, treated wastewater.

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Authors: Yanto Santosa, Catharina Yudea

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The rapid growth of oil palm industry in Indonesia raised many negative accusations from various parties, who said that oil palm plantation is damaging the environment and biodiversity, including birds. Since research on oil palm plantation impacts on bird diversity is still limited, this study needs to be developed in order to gain further learning and understanding. Data on bird diversity were collected in March 2018 in KJNP Estate, Riau Province using strip transect method on five different land cover types (young, intermediate, and old growth of oil palm plantation, high conservation value area, and crops field or the baseline). The observations were conducted simultaneously, with three repetitions. The result shows that the baseline has 19 species of birds and land cover after the oil palm plantation has 39 species. HCV (high conservation value) area has the highest increase in diversity value. Oil palm plantation has changed the composition of bird species. The highest similarity index is shown by young growth oil palm land cover with total score 0.65, meanwhile the lowest similarity index with total score 0.43 is shown by HCV area. Overall, the existence of oil palm plantation made a positive impact by increasing bird species diversity, with total 23 species gained and 3 species lost.

Keywords: Bird diversity, crops field, impact of oil palm plantation, KJNP estate.

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Authors: V. Charaia

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From the strategic point of view, not all Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) are always positively benefiting the host economy, i.e. not all Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) are promoting local/host economies. FDI could have different impact on different sectors of the economy, based not only on annual investment amount, but MNE motivations and peculiarities of the host economy in particular. FDI analysis based only on its amount can lead to incorrect decisions, it is much more important to understand the essence of investment. Consequently, our research is oriented on MNE’s motivations, answering which sectors are most popular among international investors and why, what motivated them to invest into one or another business. Georgian economy for the last period of time is attracting more and more efficiency seeking investments, which could be translated as - concentrating production in a limited number of locations to supply various markets, while benefiting local economy with: new technologies, employment, exports diversification, increased income for the local economy and so on. Foreign investors and MNEs in particular are no longer and not so much interested in the resource seeking investments, which was the case for Georgia in the last decade of XX century. Despite the fact of huge progress for the Georgian economy, still there is a room for foreign investors to make a local market oriented investments. The local market is still rich in imported products, which should be replaced by local ones. And the last but not the least important issue is that approximately 30% of all FDIs in Georgia according to this research are “efficiency seeking” investments, which is an enormous progress and a hope for future Georgian success.

Keywords: Investments, MNE, FDI motivations, Georgian economy.

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Authors: Sundara Subramanian Karuppasamy, Che Hua Yang

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In this work, the laser ultrasound technique has been used for analyzing and imaging the inner defects in metal blocks. To detect the defects in blocks, traditionally the researchers used piezoelectric transducers for the generation and reception of ultrasonic signals. These transducers can be configured into the sparse and phased array. But these two configurations have their drawbacks including the requirement of many transducers, time-consuming calculations, limited bandwidth, and provide confined image resolution. Here, we focus on the non-contact method for generating and receiving the ultrasound to examine the inner defects in aluminum blocks. A Q-switched pulsed laser has been used for the generation and the reception is done by using Laser Doppler Vibrometer (LDV). Based on the Doppler effect, LDV provides a rapid and high spatial resolution way for sensing ultrasonic waves. From the LDV, a series of scanning points are selected which serves as the phased array elements. The side-drilled hole of 10 mm diameter with a depth of 25 mm has been introduced and the defect is interrogated by the linear array of scanning points obtained from the LDV. With the aid of the Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique (SAFT) algorithm, based on the time-shifting principle the inspected images are generated from the A-scan data acquired from the 1-D linear phased array elements. Thus the defect can be precisely detected with good resolution.

Keywords: Laser ultrasonics, linear phased array, nondestructive testing, synthetic aperture focusing technique, ultrasonic imaging.

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Authors: R. Taviv, A.C. Brent, H. Fortuin

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The Long-range Energy and Alternatives Planning (LEAP) energy planning system has been developed for South Africa, for the 2005 base year and a limited number of plausible future scenarios that may have significant implications (negative or positive) in terms of environmental impacts. The system quantifies the national energy demand for the domestic, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture sectors, the supply of electricity and liquid fuels, and the resulting emissions. The South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI) identified the need to develop an environmental assessment tool, based on the LEAP energy planning system, to provide decision-makers and stakeholders with the necessary understanding of the environmental impacts associated with different energy scenarios. A comprehensive analysis of indicators that are used internationally and in South Africa was done and the available data was accessed to select a reasonable number of indicators that could be utilized in energy planning. A consultative process was followed to determine the needs of different stakeholders on the required indicators and also the most suitable form of reporting. This paper demonstrates the application of Energy Environmental Sustainability Indicators (EESIs) as part of the developed tool, which assists with the identification of the environmental consequences of energy generation and use scenarios and thereby promotes sustainability, since environmental considerations can then be integrated into the preparation and adoption of policies, plans, programs and projects. Recommendations are made to refine the tool further for South Africa.

Keywords: Energy modeling, LEAP, environmental impact, environmental indicators, energy sector emissions, sustainable development, South Africa

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Ahmed T. Farid, Khaled Z. Soliman

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Due to limited areas and excessive cost of land for projects, backfilling process has become necessary. Also, backfilling will be done to overcome the un-leveling depths or raising levels of site construction, especially near the sea region. Therefore, backfilling soil materials used under the foundation of structures should be investigated regarding its effect on ground motion characteristics, especially at regions subjected to earthquakes. In this research, 60-meter thickness of sandy fill material was used above a fixed 240-meter of natural clayey soil underlying by rock formation to predict the modified ground motion characteristics effect at the foundation level. Comparison between the effect of using three different situations of fill material compaction on the recorded earthquake is studied, i.e. peak ground acceleration, time history, and spectra acceleration values. The three different densities of the compacted fill material used in the study were very loose, medium dense and very dense sand deposits, respectively. Shake computer program was used to perform this study. Strong earthquake records, with Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) of 0.35 g, were used in the analysis. It was found that, higher compaction of fill material thickness has a significant effect on eliminating the earthquake ground motion properties at surface layer of fill material, near foundation level. It is recommended to consider the fill material characteristics in the design of foundations subjected to seismic motions. Future studies should be analyzed for different fill and natural soil deposits for different seismic conditions.

Keywords: Fill, material, density, compaction, earthquake, PGA.

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Authors: Youngjae Jin, Daeshik Kim

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This paper describes a cycle accurate simulation results of weight values learned by an auto-encoder behavior model in terms of pre-route simulation. Given the results we visualized the first layer representations with natural images. Many common deep learning threads have focused on learning high-level abstraction of unlabeled raw data by unsupervised feature learning. However, in the process of handling such a huge amount of data, the learning method’s computation complexity and time limited advanced research. These limitations came from the fact these algorithms were computed by using only single core CPUs. For this reason, parallel-based hardware, FPGAs, was seen as a possible solution to overcome these limitations. We adopted and simulated the ready-made auto-encoder to design a behavior model in VerilogHDL before designing hardware. With the auto-encoder behavior model pre-route simulation, we obtained the cycle accurate results of the parameter of each hidden layer by using MODELSIM. The cycle accurate results are very important factor in designing a parallel-based digital hardware. Finally this paper shows an appropriate operation of behavior model based pre-route simulation. Moreover, we visualized learning latent representations of the first hidden layer with Kyoto natural image dataset.

Keywords: Auto-encoder, Behavior model simulation, Digital hardware design, Pre-route simulation, Unsupervised feature learning.

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Authors: Mohammed El Raey, Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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The spatial-ecological modeling is relating sustainable dispersions with social development. Sustainability with spatial-ecological model gives attention to urban environments in the design review management to comply with Earth’s system. Naturally exchanged patterns of ecosystems have consistent and periodic cycles to preserve energy flows and materials in Earth’s system. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) technique is utilized to assess the safety of an industrial complex. The other analytical approach is the Failure-Safe Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for critical components. The plant safety parameters are identified for engineering topology as employed in assessment safety of industrial ecology. In particular, the most severe accidental release of hazardous gaseous is postulated, analyzed and assessment in industrial region. The IAEA-safety assessment procedure is used to account the duration and rate of discharge of liquid chlorine. The ecological model of plume dispersion width and concentration of chlorine gas in the downwind direction is determined using Gaussian Plume Model in urban and rural areas and presented with SURFER®. The prediction of accident consequences is traced in risk contour concentration lines. The local greenhouse effect is predicted with relevant conclusions. The spatial-ecological model is predicted for multiple factors distribution schemes of multi-criteria analysis. The input–output analysis is explored from the spillover effect, and we conducted Monte Carlo simulations for sensitivity analysis. Their unique structure is balanced within “equilibrium patterns”, such as the composite index for biosphere with collective structure of many distributed feedback flows. These dynamic structures are related to have their physical and chemical properties and enable a gradual and prolonged incremental pattern. While this spatial model structure argues from ecology, resource savings, static load design, financial and other pragmatic reasons, the outcomes are not decisive in an artistic/architectural perspective. The hypothesis is deployed to unify analytic and analogical spatial structure in development urban environments using optimization loads as an example of integrated industrial structure where the process is based on engineering topology of systems ecology.

Keywords: Spatial-ecological modeling, spatial structure orientation impact, composite structure, industrial ecology.

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Authors: Sadia Idrees, Gianpaolo Vignali, Simeon Gill

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The study aims to establish the virtual size and fit technology features to enhance fashion online retailing platforms, utilising digital human measurements to provide customised style and function to consumers. A few firms in the UK have launched advanced interactive fashion shopping domains for personalised shopping globally, aided by the latest internet technology. Virtual size and fit interfaces have a great potential to provide a personalised better-fitted garment to promote mass customisation globally. Made-to-measure clothing, consuming unstitched fabric is a common practice offered by fashion brands in Pakistan. This product is regarded as economical and sustainable to be utilised by consumers in Pakistan. Although the manual sizing system is practiced to sell garments online, virtual size and fit visualisation and recommendation technologies are uncommon in Pakistani fashion interfaces. A comparative assessment of Pakistani fashion brand websites and UK technology-driven fashion interfaces was conducted to highlight the vast potential of the virtual size and fit technology. The results indicated that web 2.0 technology adopted by Pakistani apparel brands has limited features, whereas companies practicing web 3.0 technology provide interactive online real-store shopping experience leading to enhanced customer satisfaction and globalisation of brands.

Keywords: E-commerce, mass customization, virtual size and fit, web 3.0 technology.

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Authors: Prasanti Widyasih Sarli, Prayatni Soewondo

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Greater access to sanitation in developing countries is urgent. However even though sanitation is crucial, overall budget for sanitation is limited. With this budget limitation, it is important to (1) allocate resources strategically to maximize impact and (2) take into account communal agency to potentially be a source for sanitation improvements. The Jodipan and Kesatrian Project in Malang, Indonesia is an interesting alternative for solving the sanitation problem in which resources were allocated strategically and communal agency was also observed. Although the projects initial goal was only to improve visually the situation in the slums, it became a new tourist destination, and the economic benefit that came with it had an effect also on the change of behavior of the residents and the government towards sanitation. It also grew from only including the Kesatrian Village to expanding to the Jodipan Village in the course of less than a year. To investigate the success of this project, in this paper a descriptive model will be used and data will be drawn from intensive interviews with the initiators of the project, residents affected by the project and government officials. In this research it is argued that three points mark the success of the project: (1) the strategic initial impact due to choice of location, (2) the influx of tourists that triggered behavioral change among residents and, (3) the direct economic impact which ensured its sustainability and growth by gaining government officials support and attention for more public spending in the area for slum development and sanitation improvement.

Keywords: Behavior change, sanitation, slum, strategic thinking.

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Authors: Willi Zschiebsch, Alrik Dargel, Sebastian Spitzer, Philipp Johst, Robert Böhm, Niels Modler

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In this article, we investigate an approach that digitally links individual development process steps by using the drive shaft of an aircraft engine as representative example of a fiber polymer composite. Such high-performance lightweight composite structures have many adjustable parameters that influence the mechanical properties. Only a combination of optimal parameter values can lead to energy efficient lightweight structures. The development tools required for the Engineering Design Process (EDP) are often isolated solutions and their compatibility with each other is limited. A digital framework is presented in this study, which allows individual specialised tools to be linked via the generated data in such a way that automated optimization across programs becomes possible. This is demonstrated using the example of linking geometry generation with numerical structural analysis. The proposed digital framework for automated design optimization demonstrates the feasibility of developing a complete digital approach to design optimization. The methodology shows promising potential for achieving optimal solutions in terms of mass, material utilization, eigenfrequency and deformation under lateral load with less development effort. The development of such a framework is an important step towards promoting a more efficient design approach that can lead to stable and balanced results.

Keywords: Digital Linked Process, composite, CFRP, multi-objective, EDP, NSGA-2, NSGA-3, TPE.

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Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, unmanned aircraft systems, system safety, uncertainty.

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Authors: Petr Gurný

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One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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Authors: K.Alkhulaifi, M. Hamdalla

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Most of ignition delay correlations studies have been developed in a constant volume bombs which cannot capture the dynamic variation in pressure and temperature during the ignition delay as in real engines. Watson, Assanis et. al. and Hardenberg and Hase correlations have been developed based on experimental data of diesel engines. However, they showed limited predictive ability of ignition delay when compared to experimental results. The objective of the study was to investigate the dependency of ignition delay time on engine brake power. An experimental investigation of the effect of automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels on ignition delay under steady state conditions of a direct injection diesel engine was conducted. A four cylinder, direct injection naturally aspirated diesel engine was used in this experiment over a wide range of engine speeds and two engine loads. The ignition delay experimental data were compared with predictions of Assanis et. al. and Watson ignition delay correlations. The results of the experimental investigation were then used to develop a new ignition delay correlation. The newly developed ignition delay correlation has shown a better agreement with the experimental data than Assanis et. al. and Watson when using automotive diesel and water diesel emulsion fuels especially at low to medium engine speeds at both loads. In addition, the second derivative of cylinder pressure which is the most widely used method in determining the start of combustion was investigated.

Keywords: gnition delay correlation, water diesel emulsion, direct injection diesel engine

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Authors: Robert Koch, Mario Golling, Gabi Dreo

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During the last couple of years, the degree of dependence on IT systems has reached a dimension nobody imagined to be possible 10 years ago. The increased usage of mobile devices (e.g., smart phones), wireless sensor networks and embedded devices (Internet of Things) are only some examples of the dependency of modern societies on cyber space. At the same time, the complexity of IT applications, e.g., because of the increasing use of cloud computing, is rising continuously. Along with this, the threats to IT security have increased both quantitatively and qualitatively, as recent examples like STUXNET or the supposed cyber attack on Illinois water system are proofing impressively. Once isolated control systems are nowadays often publicly available - a fact that has never been intended by the developers. Threats to IT systems don’t care about areas of responsibility. Especially with regard to Cyber Warfare, IT threats are no longer limited to company or industry boundaries, administrative jurisdictions or state boundaries. One of the important countermeasures is increased cooperation among the participants especially in the field of Cyber Defence. Besides political and legal challenges, there are technical ones as well. A better, at least partially automated exchange of information is essential to (i) enable sophisticated situational awareness and to (ii) counter the attacker in a coordinated way. Therefore, this publication performs an evaluation of state of the art Intrusion Detection Message Exchange protocols in order to guarantee a secure information exchange between different entities.

Keywords: Cyber Defence, Cyber Warfare, Intrusion Detection Information Exchange, Early Warning Systems, Joint Intrusion Detection, Cyber Conflict

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