Search results for: Impact analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10116

Search results for: Impact analysis

6546 An Analysis of the Social Network Structure of Knowledge Management Students at NTU

Authors: Guo Yanru, Zhu Xiaobo, Lee Chu Keong

Abstract:

This paper maps the structure of the social network of the 2011 class ofsixty graduate students of the Masters of Science (Knowledge Management) programme at the Nanyang Technological University, based on their friending relationships on Facebook. To ensure anonymity, actual names were not used. Instead, they were replaced with codes constructed from their gender, nationality, mode of study, year of enrollment and a unique number. The relationships between friends within the class, and among the seniors and alumni of the programme wereplotted. UCINet and Pajek were used to plot the sociogram, to compute the density, inclusivity, and degree, global, betweenness, and Bonacich centralities, to partition the students into two groups, namely, active and peripheral, and to identify the cut-points. Homophily was investigated, and it was observed for nationality and study mode. The groups students formed on Facebook were also studied, and of fifteen groups, eight were classified as dead, which we defined as those that have been inactive for over two months.

Keywords: Facebook, friending relationships, Social network analysis, social network sites, structural position

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6545 Validation of Solar PV Inverter Harmonics Behaviour at Different Power Levels in a Test Network

Authors: Wilfred Fritz

Abstract:

Grid connected solar PV inverters need to be compliant to standard regulations regarding unwanted harmonic generation. This paper gives an introduction to harmonics, solar PV inverter voltage regulation and balancing through compensation and investigates the behaviour of harmonic generation at different power levels. Practical measurements of harmonics and power levels with a power quality data logger were made, on a test network at a university in Germany. The test setup and test results are discussed. The major finding was that between the morning and afternoon load peak windows when the PV inverters operate under low solar insolation and low power levels, more unwanted harmonics are generated. This has a huge impact on the power quality of the grid as well as capital and maintenance costs. The design of a single-tuned harmonic filter towards harmonic mitigation is presented.

Keywords: Harmonics, power quality, pulse width modulation, total harmonic distortion.

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6544 A Fully-Automated Disturbance Analysis Vision for the Smart Grid Based on Smart Switch Data

Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

Abstract:

The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: Disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switch.

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6543 Implementation of a Low-Cost Instrumentation for an Open Cycle Wind Tunnel to Evaluate Pressure Coefficient

Authors: Cristian P. Topa, Esteban A. Valencia, Victor H. Hidalgo, Marco A. Martinez

Abstract:

Wind tunnel experiments for aerodynamic profiles display numerous advantages, such as: clean steady laminar flow, controlled environmental conditions, streamlines visualization, and real data acquisition. However, the experiment instrumentation usually is expensive, and hence, each test implies a incremented in design cost. The aim of this work is to select and implement a low-cost static pressure data acquisition system for a NACA 2412 airfoil in an open cycle wind tunnel. This work compares wind tunnel experiment with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation and parametric analysis. The experiment was evaluated at Reynolds of 1.65 e5, with increasing angles from -5° to 15°. The comparison between the approaches show good enough accuracy, between the experiment and CFD, additional parametric analysis results differ widely from the other methods, which complies with the lack of accuracy of the lateral approach due its simplicity.

Keywords: Wind tunnel, low cost instrumentation, experimental testing, CFD simulation.

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6542 Drag Analysis of an Aircraft Wing Model withand without Bird Feather like Winglet

Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A.K.M. P. Iqbal, M. Ariffin, M. Mazian

Abstract:

This work describes the aerodynamic characteristic for aircraft wing model with and without bird feather like winglet. The aerofoil used to construct the whole structure is NACA 653-218 Rectangular wing and this aerofoil has been used to compare the result with previous research using winglet. The model of the rectangular wing with bird feather like winglet has been fabricated using polystyrene before design using CATIA P3 V5R13 software and finally fabricated in wood. The experimental analysis for the aerodynamic characteristic for rectangular wing without winglet, wing with horizontal winglet and wing with 60 degree inclination winglet for Reynolds number 1.66×105, 2.08×105 and 2.50×105 have been carried out in open loop low speed wind tunnel at the Aerodynamics laboratory in Universiti Putra Malaysia. The experimental result shows 25-30 % reduction in drag coefficient and 10-20 % increase in lift coefficient by using bird feather like winglet for angle of attack of 8 degree.

Keywords: Aerofoil, Wind tunnel, Winglet, Drag Coefficient.

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6541 Detection and Quantification of Ozone in Screen Printing Facilities

Authors: Kiurski J., Adamović S., Oros I., Krstić J., Đogo M.

Abstract:

Most often the contaminants are not taken seriously into consideration, and this behavior comes out directly from the lack of monitoring and professional reporting about pollution in the printing facilities in Serbia. The goal of planned and systematic ozone measurements in ambient air of the screen printing facilities in Novi Sad is to examine of its impact on the employees health, and to track trends in concentration. In this study, ozone concentrations were determined by using discontinuous and continuous method during the automatic and manual screen printing process. Obtained results indicates that the average concentrations of ozone measured during the automatic process were almost 3 to 28 times higher for discontinuous and 10 times higher for continuous method (1.028 ppm) compared to the values prescribed by OSHA. In the manual process, average concentrations of ozone were within prescribed values for discontinuous and almost 3 times higher for continuous method (0.299 ppm).

Keywords: indoor pollution, ozone, screen printing

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6540 Infrared Camera-Based Hand Gesture Space Touch System Implementation of Smart Device Environment

Authors: Yang-Keun Ahn, Kwang-Soon Choi, Young-Choong Park, Kwang-Mo Jung

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method to recognize the tip of a finger and space touch hand gesture using an infrared camera in a smart device environment. The proposed method estimates the tip of a finger with a curvature-based ellipse fitting algorithm, and verifies that the estimated object is indeed a finger with an ellipse fitting rectangular area. The feature extracted from the verified finger tip is used to implement the movement of a mouse and clicking gesture. The proposed algorithm was implemented with an actual smart device to test the proposed method. Empirical parameters were obtained from the keypad software and an image analysis tool for the performance optimization, and a comparative analysis with conventional research showed improved performance with the proposed method.

Keywords: Infrared camera, Hand gesture, Smart device, Space touch.

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6539 Consumption Insurance against the Chronic Illness: Evidence from Thailand

Authors: Yuthapoom Thanakijborisut

Abstract:

This paper studies consumption insurance against the chronic illness in Thailand. The study estimates the impact of household consumption in the chronic illness on consumption growth. Chronic illness is the health care costs of a person or a household’s decision in treatment for the long term; the causes and effects of the household’s ability for smooth consumption. The chronic illnesses are measured in health status when at least one member within the household faces the chronic illness. The data used is from the Household Social Economic Panel Survey conducted during 2007 and 2012. The survey collected data from approximately 6,000 households from every province, both inside and outside municipal areas in Thailand. The study estimates the change in household consumption by using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model. The result shows that the members within the household facing the chronic illness would reduce the consumption by around 4%. This case indicates that consumption insurance in Thailand is quite sufficient against chronic illness.

Keywords: Consumption insurance, chronic illness, health care, Thailand.

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6538 Experimental and Finite Element Analysis for Mechanics of Soil-Tool Interaction

Authors: A. Armin, R. Fotouhi, W. Szyszkowski

Abstract:

In this paper a 3-D finite element (FE) investigation of soil-blade interaction is described. The effects of blade’s shape and rake angle are examined both numerically and experimentally. The soil is considered as an elastic-plastic granular material with non-associated Drucker-Prager material model. Contact elements with different properties are used to mimic soil-blade sliding and soil-soil cutting phenomena. A separation criterion is presented and a procedure to evaluate the forces acting on the blade is given and discussed in detail. Experimental results were derived from tests using soil bin facility and instruments at the University of Saskatchewan. During motion of the blade, load cells collect data and send them to a computer. The measured forces using load cells had noisy signals which are needed to be filtered. The FE results are compared with experimental results for verification. This technique can be used in blade shape optimization and design of more complicated blade’s shape.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, soil-blade contact modeling, blade force, experimental results.

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6537 Evaluation of University Technology Malaysia on Campus Transport Access Management

Authors: Arash Moradkhani Roshandeh, Othman Che Puan

Abstract:

Access Management is the proactive management of vehicular access points to land parcels adjacent to all manner of roadways. Good access management promotes safe and efficient use of the transportation network. This study attempts to utilize archived data from the University Technology of Malaysia on-campus area to assess the accuracy with which access management display some benefits. Results show that usage of access management reduces delay and fewer crashes. Clustered development can improve walking, cycling and transit travel, reduce parking requirements and improve emergency responses. Effective Access Management planning can also reduce total roadway facility costs by reducing the number of driveways and intersections. At the end after presenting recommendations some of the travel impact, and benefits that can be derived if these suggestions are implemented have been summarized with the related comments.

Keywords: Access Management, Delay, Density, Traffic Flow

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6536 Formosa3: A Cloud-Enabled HPC Cluster in NCHC

Authors: Chin-Hung Li, Te-Ming Chen, Ying-Chuan Chen, Shuen-Tai Wang

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new approach to offer a private cloud service in HPC clusters. In particular, our approach relies on automatically scheduling users- customized environment request as a normal job in batch system. After finishing virtualization request jobs, those guest operating systems will dismiss so that compute nodes will be released again for computing. We present initial work on the innovative integration of HPC batch system and virtualization tools that aims at coexistence such that they suffice for meeting the minimizing interference required by a traditional HPC cluster. Given the design of initial infrastructure, the proposed effort has the potential to positively impact on synergy model. The results from the experiment concluded that goal for provisioning customized cluster environment indeed can be fulfilled by using virtual machines, and efficiency can be improved with proper setup and arrangements.

Keywords: Cloud Computing, HPC Cluster, Private Cloud, Virtualization

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6535 Standardization and Adaption Requirements in Production System Transplants

Authors: G. Schuh, T. Potente, D. Kupke, S. Ivanescu

Abstract:

As German companies roll out their standardized production systems to offshore manufacturing plants, they face the challenge of implementing them in different cultural environments. Studies show that the local adaptation is one of the key factors for a successful implementation. Thus the question arises of where the line between standardization and adaptation can be drawn. To answer this question the influence of culture on production systems is analysed in this paper. The culturally contingent components of production systems are identified. Also the contingency factors are classified according to their impact on the necessary adaptation changes and implementation effort. Culturally specific decision making, coordination, communication and motivation patterns require one-time changes in organizational and process design. The attitude towards rules requires more intense coaching and controlling. Lastly a framework is developed to depict standardization and adaption needs when transplanting production systems into different cultural environments.

Keywords: Culture, influence of national culture on production systems, lean production, production systems.

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6534 Implementation of Virtual Reality in the Conceptual Design of a Tractor Trailer

Authors: Arunesh Chandra, Pankaj Chandna

Abstract:

Virtual reality (VR) is a rapidly emerging computer interface that attempts to immerse the user completely within an experimental recreation; thereby, greatly enhancing the overall impact and providing a much more intuitive link between the computer and the human participants. The main objective of this study is to design tractor trailer capable of meeting the customers’ requirements and suitable for rough conditions to be used in combination with a farm tractor in India. The final concept is capable of providing arrangements for attaching the trailer to the tractor easily by pickup hitch, stronger and lighter supporting frame, option of spare tyre etc. Furthermore, the resulting product design can be sent via the Internet to customers for comments or marketing purposes. The virtual prototyping (VP) system therefore facilitates advanced product design and helps reduce product development time and cost significantly.

Keywords: Conceptual design, Trailer, Virtual prototyping, Virtual reality.

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6533 Influence of Jerusalem Artichoke Powder on the Nutritional Value of Pastry Products

Authors: I. Gedrovica, D. Karklina

Abstract:

From year to year, the incidence of different diseases is increasing in humans, and the cause is inadequate intake of dietary fibre, vitamins, and minerals. One of the possibilities to take care of your health preventively is including in the diet products with increased dietary fibre, vitamin, and mineral content.Jerusalem artichoke powder (JAP) made from Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus L) roots is a valuable product. By adding it to pastry goods, we can obtain a fibre-rich food that could be healthier and an excellent alternative to the classical pastry products of this kind.Experiments were carried out at the Faculty of Food Technology of Latvia University of Agriculture (LLU). Results of experiments showed that addition of Jerusalem artichoke powder has significant impact on all the studied pastry products nutritional value (p<0.05). With increasing concentration of Jerusalem artichoke powder in pastry products increase it nutritional value and decrease energy value.

Keywords: Biscuits, cakes, Jerusalem artichoke powder, nutritional and energy value

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6532 Lessons from Applying XP Methodology to Business Requirements Engineering in Developing Countries Context

Authors: Olugbara O.O., Adebiyi A.A.

Abstract:

Most standard software development methodologies are often not applied to software projects in many developing countries of the world. The approach generally practice is close to what eXtreme Programming (XP) is likely promoting, just keep coding and testing as the requirement evolves. XP is an agile software process development methodology that has inherent capability for improving efficiency of Business Software Development (BSD). XP can facilitate Business-to-Development (B2D) relationship due to its customer-oriented advocate. From practitioner point of view, we applied XP to BSD and result shows that customer involvement has positive impact on productivity, but can as well frustrate the success of the project. In an effort to promote software engineering practice in developing countries of Africa, we present the experiment performed, lessons learned, problems encountered and solution adopted in applying XP methodology to BSD.

Keywords: Requirements engineering, Requirements elicitation, Extreme programming, Mobile Work force

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6531 Dynamic Analysis of Composite Doubly Curved Panels with Variable Thickness

Authors: I. Algul, G. Akgun, H. Kurtaran

Abstract:

Dynamic analysis of composite doubly curved panels with variable thickness subjected to different pulse types using Generalized Differential Quadrature method (GDQ) is presented in this study. Panels with variable thickness are used in the construction of aerospace and marine industry. Giving variable thickness to panels can allow the designer to get optimum structural efficiency. For this reason, estimating the response of variable thickness panels is very important to design more reliable structures under dynamic loads. Dynamic equations for composite panels with variable thickness are obtained using virtual work principle. Partial derivatives in the equation of motion are expressed with GDQ and Newmark average acceleration scheme is used for temporal discretization. Several examples are used to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results are compared with finite element method. Effects of taper ratios, boundary conditions and loading type on the response of composite panel are investigated.

Keywords: Generalized differential quadrature method, doubly curved panels, laminated composite materials, small displacement.

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6530 Damage Evolution of Underground Structural Reinforced Concrete Small-Scale Static-Loading Experiments

Authors: Ahmed Mohammed Youssef Mohammed, Mohammad Reza Okhovat, Koichi Maekawa

Abstract:

Small-scale RC models of both piles and tunnel ducts were produced as mockups of reality and loaded under soil confinement conditionsto investigate the damage evolution of structural RC interacting with soil. Experimental verifications usinga 3D nonlinear FE analysis program called COM3D, which was developed at the University of Tokyo, are introduced. This analysis has been used in practice for seismic performance assessment of underground ducts and in-ground LNG storage tanks in consideration of soil-structure interactionunder static and dynamic loading. Varying modes of failure of RCpilessubjected to different magnitudes of soil confinement were successfully reproduced in the proposed small-scale experiments and numerically simulated as well. Analytical simulation was applied to RC tunnel mockups under a wide variety of depth and soil confinement conditions, and reasonable matching was confirmed.

Keywords: Soil-Structure Interaction, RC pile, RC Tunnel

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6529 C Vibration Analysis of a Beam on Elastic Foundation with Elastically Restrained Ends Using Spectral Element Method

Authors: Hamioud Saida, Khalfallah Salah

Abstract:

In this study, a spectral element method (SEM) is employed to predict the free vibration of a Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on a Winkler foundation with elastically restrained ends. The formulation of the dynamic stiffness matrix has been established by solving the differential equation of motion which was transformed to frequency domain. Non-dimensional natural frequencies and shape modes are obtained by solving the partial differential equations, numerically. Numerical comparisons and examples are performed to show the effectiveness of the SEM and to investigate the effects of various parameters, such as the springs at the boundaries and the elastic foundation parameter on the vibration frequencies. The obtained results demonstrate that the present method can also be applied to solve the more general problem of the dynamic analysis of structures with higher order precision.

Keywords: Elastically supported Euler-Bernoulli beam, free-vibration, spectral element method, Winkler foundation.

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6528 An Experimental Investigation of Factors Affecting Consumers' Reactions to Mobile APP-Based Promotions

Authors: Shu-Lu Hsu, Jeffrey C. F. Tai, Yi-Han Wang

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to understand how consumers react to a company's promotional offers with mobile applications (APP) as premiums. This paper presents the results of an experimental study where five features of APP were involved: the cost (free/discounted) for earning APP, the relationship between APP and the promoted product, the perceived usefulness, the perceived ease of use, and the perceived playfulness of APP in the context of light foods purchase. The results support that the above features, except perceived ease of use, have substantial influences on consumers' intention to adopt the APP. Among the five features, the cost for earning APP has the most impact on the adopting intention of APP. The study also found a positive influence of adopting intention of APP on the consumer's purchase intention of the promoted product. Thus, APP-based premiums may enhance the consumer's purchase intention of a company's promoted products.

Keywords: Mobile Application, Premium, Sales Promotion, TAM.

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6527 Heat Transfer Analysis of a Multiphase Oxygen Reactor Heated by a Helical Tube in the Cu-Cl Cycle of a Hydrogen Production

Authors: Mohammed W. Abdulrahman

Abstract:

In the thermochemical water splitting process by Cu-Cl cycle, oxygen gas is produced by an endothermic thermolysis process at a temperature of 530oC. Oxygen production reactor is a three-phase reactor involving cuprous chloride molten salt, copper oxychloride solid reactant and oxygen gas. To perform optimal performance, the oxygen reactor requires accurate control of heat transfer to the molten salt and decomposing solid particles within the thermolysis reactor. In this paper, the scale up analysis of the oxygen reactor that is heated by an internal helical tube is performed from the perspective of heat transfer. A heat balance of the oxygen reactor is investigated to analyze the size of the reactor that provides the required heat input for different rates of hydrogen production. It is found that the helical tube wall and the service side constitute the largest thermal resistances of the oxygen reactor system. In the analysis of this paper, the Cu-Cl cycle is assumed to be heated by two types of nuclear reactor, which are HTGR and CANDU SCWR. It is concluded that using CANDU SCWR requires more heat transfer rate by 3-4 times than that when using HTGR. The effect of the reactor aspect ratio is also studied and it is found that increasing the aspect ratio decreases the number of reactors and the rate of decrease in the number of reactors decreases by increasing the aspect ratio. Comparisons between the results of this study and pervious results of material balances in the oxygen reactor show that the size of the oxygen reactor is dominated by the heat balance rather than the material balance.

Keywords: Heat transfer, Cu-Cl cycle, hydrogen production, oxygen, clean energy.

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6526 Measuring Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points Implementation in Riyadh Hospitals

Authors: A. Alrasheed, I. Connerton

Abstract:

Daily provision of high quality food and hygiene to patients is a challenging goal of the healthcare. In Saudi Arabia, matters related to food safety and hygiene are regulated by the Ministry of Health (MOH) and the Saudi Food and Drugs Authority (SFDA). The purpose of this research is to discuss the food safety management inconsistencies and flaws, in particular the ones related to Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) in Riyadh’s MOH hospitals. As required by law, written HACCP regulations must be implemented, and food handlers need to receive the training accordingly. However, in Saudi hospitals, this is not a requirement, and the food handlers do not need to hold training certificates in food safety or HACCP. Nowadays, the matter of food safety and hygiene have become increasingly important since the decision makers want to align these regulations with the majority of the world and to implement HACCP fully and for this purpose, the SFDA was established. 

Keywords: Food safety, patients, hospitals, HACCP, Saudi Arabia.

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6525 Topological Sensitivity Analysis for Reconstruction of the Inverse Source Problem from Boundary Measurement

Authors: Maatoug Hassine, Mourad Hrizi

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a geometric inverse source problem for the heat equation with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary data. We will reconstruct the exact form of the unknown source term from additional boundary conditions. Our motivation is to detect the location, the size and the shape of source support. We present a one-shot algorithm based on the Kohn-Vogelius formulation and the topological gradient method. The geometric inverse source problem is formulated as a topology optimization one. A topological sensitivity analysis is derived from a source function. Then, we present a non-iterative numerical method for the geometric reconstruction of the source term with unknown support using a level curve of the topological gradient. Finally, we give several examples to show the viability of our presented method.

Keywords: Geometric inverse source problem, heat equation, topological sensitivity, topological optimization, Kohn-Vogelius formulation.

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6524 Using the Students-as-Customers Concept in Technology Disciplines: Students- Perspectives

Authors: Boonlert Watjatrakul

Abstract:

Educational institutions increasingly adopt the students-as-customers concept to satisfy their students. Understanding students- perspectives on the use of this business concept in educational institutions is necessary for the institutions to effectively align these perspectives with their management practice. The study investigates whether students in technology and business disciplines have significantly different attitudes toward using the students-as-customers concept in educational institutions and explores the impact of treating students as customers in technology disciplines under students- perspectives. The results from quantitative and qualitative data analyses show that technology students, in contrast to business students, fairly disagree with educational institutions to treat students as customers. Treating students as customers in technology disciplines will have a negative influence on teaching performance, instructor-student relationships and educational institutions- aim, but a positive influence on service quality in educational institutions. The paper discusses the findings and concludes with implications and limitations of the study.

Keywords: Education, information technology, students-ascustomers, technology disciplines.

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6523 Use of Detectors Technology for Gamma Ray Issued from Radioactive Isotopes and its Impact on Knowledge of Behavior of the Stationary Case of Solid Phase Holdup

Authors: Abbas Ali Mahmood Karwi

Abstract:

For gamma radiation detection, assemblies having scintillation crystals and a photomultiplier tube, also there is a preamplifier connected to the detector because the signals from photomultiplier tube are of small amplitude. After pre-amplification the signals are sent to the amplifier and then to the multichannel analyser. The multichannel analyser sorts all incoming electrical signals according to their amplitudes and sorts the detected photons in channels covering small energy intervals. The energy range of each channel depends on the gain settings of the multichannel analyser and the high voltage across the photomultiplier tube. The exit spectrum data of the two main isotopes studied ,putting data in biomass program ,process it by Matlab program to get the solid holdup image (solid spherical nuclear fuel)

Keywords: Multichannel analyzer, Spectrum, Energies, Fluids holdup, Image

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6522 Summarizing Data Sets for Data Mining by Using Statistical Methods in Coastal Engineering

Authors: Yunus Doğan, Ahmet Durap

Abstract:

Coastal regions are the one of the most commonly used places by the natural balance and the growing population. In coastal engineering, the most valuable data is wave behaviors. The amount of this data becomes very big because of observations that take place for periods of hours, days and months. In this study, some statistical methods such as the wave spectrum analysis methods and the standard statistical methods have been used. The goal of this study is the discovery profiles of the different coast areas by using these statistical methods, and thus, obtaining an instance based data set from the big data to analysis by using data mining algorithms. In the experimental studies, the six sample data sets about the wave behaviors obtained by 20 minutes of observations from Mersin Bay in Turkey and converted to an instance based form, while different clustering techniques in data mining algorithms were used to discover similar coastal places. Moreover, this study discusses that this summarization approach can be used in other branches collecting big data such as medicine.

Keywords: Clustering algorithms, coastal engineering, data mining, data summarization, statistical methods.

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6521 Forest Growth Simulation: Tropical Rain Forest Stand Table Projection

Authors: Yasmin Yahya, Roslan Ismail, Samreth Vanna, Khorn Saret

Abstract:

The study on the tree growth for four species groups of commercial timber in Koh Kong province, Cambodia-s tropical rainforest is described. The simulation for these four groups had been successfully developed in the 5-year interval through year-60. Data were obtained from twenty permanent sample plots in the duration of thirteen years. The aim for this study was to develop stand table simulation system of tree growth by the species group. There were five steps involved in the development of the tree growth simulation: aggregate the tree species into meaningful groups by using cluster analysis; allocate the trees in the diameter classes by the species group; observe the diameter movement of the species group. The diameter growth rate, mortality rate and recruitment rate were calculated by using some mathematical formula. Simulation equation had been created by combining those parameters. Result showed the dissimilarity of the diameter growth among species groups.

Keywords: cluster analysis, diameter growth, simulation

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6520 Impact of Crises on Official Statistics: A Case Study of Environmental Statistics at Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Ibtihaj Al-Siyabi

Abstract:

The crisis of COVID-19 posed enormous challenges to the statistical providers. While official statistics were disrupted by the pandemic and related containment measures, there was a growing and pressing need for real-time data and statistics to inform decisions. This paper gives an account of the way the pandemic impacted the operations of the National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in general in terms of data collection and methods used, and the main challenges encountered by them based on international surveys. It highlights the performance of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf, GCC-STAT, and its responsiveness to the pandemic placing special emphasis on environmental statistics. The paper concludes by confirming the GCC-STAT’s resilience and success in facing the challenges.

Keywords: NSO, COVID-19, pandemic, National Statistical Offices.

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6519 Study of Influencing Factors of Shrinking Cities Based On Factor Analysis – The Example of Halle, Germany

Authors: Fang Yao, Minglei Chen

Abstract:

City shrinkage is one of the thorny problems that many European cities have to face with nowadays. It is mainly expressed as the decrease of population in these cities. Eastern Germany is one of the pioneers of European shrinking cities with long shrinking history. The paper selects one representative shrinking city Halle (Saale) in eastern Germany as research objective, collecting and investigating nearly 20 years (1993-2010) municipal data after the reunification of Germany. These data based on five dimensions, which are demographic, economic, social, spatial and environmental and total 16 eligible variables. Factor Analysis is used to deal with these variables in order to assess the most important factors affecting shrinking Halle. The results show that there are three main factors determine the shrinkage of Halle, respectively named “demographical and economical factor”, “social stability factor”, and “city vitality factor”. The three factors act at different time period of Halle’s shrinkage: from 1993 to 1997 the demographical and economical factor played an important role; from 1997 to 2004 the social stability factor is significant to city shrinkage; since 2005 city vitality factor determines the shrinkage of Halle. In recent years, the shrinkage in Halle mitigates that shows the sign of growing population. Thus the city Halle should focus on attaching more importance on the city vitality factor to prevent the city from shrinkage. Meanwhile, the city should possess a positive perspective to shift the growth-oriented development to tap the potential of shrinking cities. This method is expected to apply to further research and other shrinking cities

Keywords: Demography, Factor analysis, Halle, Shrinking cities.

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6518 Three Dimensional Analysis of Sequential Quasi Isotropic Composite Disc for Rotating Machine Application

Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Composite laminates are relatively weak in out of plane loading, inter-laminar stress, stress concentration near the edge and stress singularities. This paper develops a new analytical formulation for laminated composite rotating disc fabricated from symmetric sequential quasi isotropic layers to predict three dimensional stress and deformation. This analysis is necessary to evaluate mechanical integrity of fiber reinforced multi-layer laminates used for high speed rotating applications such as high speed impellers. Three dimensional governing equations are written for rotating composite disc. Explicit solution is obtained with "Frobenius" expansion series. Based on analytical results, there are two separate zones of three dimensional stress fields in centre and edge of rotating disc. For thin discs, out of plane deformations and stresses are small in comparison with plane ones. For relatively thick discs deformation and stress fields are three dimensional.

Keywords: Composite Disc, Rotating Machine.

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6517 Analysis of Career Support Programs for Olympic Athletes in Japan with Fifteen Conceptual Categories

Authors: Miyako Oulevey, Kaori Tsutsui, David Lavallee, Naohiko Kohtake

Abstract:

The Japan Sports Agency has made efforts to unify several career support programs for Olympic athletes prior to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. One of the programs, the Japan Olympic Committee Career Academy (JCA) was established in 2008 for Olympic athletes at their retirement. Research focusing on the service content of sport career support programs can help athletes experience a more positive transition. This study was designed to investigate the service content of the JCA program in relation to athletes’ career transition needs, including any differences of the reasons for retirement between Summer/Winter and Male/Female Olympic athletes, and to suggest the directions of how to unify the career support programs in Japan after hosting the Olympic Games using sport career transition models. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed the JCA director who started and managed the program since its inception, and a total of 15 conceptual categories were generated by the analysis. Four conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA situation”, 4 conceptual categories were in the result of “Athletes using JCA”, and 7 conceptual categories were in the result of “JCA current difficulties”. Through the analysis it was revealed that: the JCA had occupational supports for both current and retired Olympic athletes; other supports such as psychological support were unclear due to the lack of psychological professionals in JCA and the difficulties collaborating with other sports organizations; and there are differences in tendencies of visiting JCA, financial situations, and career choices depending on Summer/Winter and Male/Female athletes.

Keywords: Career support programs, causes of career termination, Olympic athlete, Olympic committee.

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