Search results for: Box–Jenkins Method

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: Nora Taghavi, Ali Sadr

Abstract:

System identification is the process of creating models of dynamic process from input- output signals. The aim of system identification can be identified as “ to find a model with adjustable parameters and then to adjust them so that the predicted output matches the measured output". This paper presents a method of modeling and simulating with system identification to achieve the maximum fitness for transformation function. First by using optimized KLM equivalent circuit for PVDF piezoelectric transducer and assuming different inputs including: sinuside, step and sum of sinusides, get the outputs, then by using system identification toolbox in MATLAB, we estimate the transformation function from inputs and outputs resulted in last program. Then compare the fitness of transformation function resulted from using ARX,OE(Output- Error) and BJ(Box-Jenkins) models in system identification toolbox and primary transformation function form KLM equivalent circuit.

Keywords: PVDF modeling, ARX, BJ(Box-Jenkins), OE(Output-Error), System Identification.

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Authors: Yoji Yamato

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an automatic verification technology of software patches for user virtual environments on IaaS Cloud to decrease verification costs of patches. In these days, IaaS services have been spread and many users can customize virtual machines on IaaS Cloud like their own private servers. Regarding to software patches of OS or middleware installed on virtual machines, users need to adopt and verify these patches by themselves. This task increases operation costs of users. Our proposed method replicates user virtual environments, extracts verification test cases for user virtual environments from test case DB, distributes patches to virtual machines on replicated environments and conducts those test cases automatically on replicated environments. We have implemented the proposed method on OpenStack using Jenkins and confirmed the feasibility. Using the implementation, we confirmed the effectiveness of test case creation efforts by our proposed idea of 2-tier abstraction of software functions and test cases. We also evaluated the automatic verification performance of environment replications, test cases extractions and test cases conductions.

Keywords: OpenStack, Cloud Computing, Automatic verification, Jenkins.

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

Abstract:

Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins’s problem, Double-input rule module, Fuzzy inference model, Obstacle avoidance, Single-input rule module.

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Authors: Loke Mun Sei

Abstract:

Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: Test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Chee Peng Lim, Wei Yee Goh

Abstract:

In this paper, the application of multiple Elman neural networks to time series data regression problems is studied. An ensemble of Elman networks is formed by boosting to enhance the performance of the individual networks. A modified version of the AdaBoost algorithm is employed to integrate the predictions from multiple networks. Two benchmark time series data sets, i.e., the Sunspot and Box-Jenkins gas furnace problems, are used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed system. The simulation results reveal that an ensemble of boosted Elman networks can achieve a higher degree of generalization as well as performance than that of the individual networks. The results are compared with those from other learning systems, and implications of the performance are discussed.

Keywords: AdaBoost, Elman network, neural network ensemble, time series regression.

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Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Hasan, M. Alauddin, S. Akhter

Abstract:

Climate change has become a major concern across the world as the intensity along with quantity of the rainfall, mean surface temperature and other climatic parameters have been changed not only in Bangladesh but also in the entire globe. Bangladesh has already experienced many natural hazards. Among them changing of rainfall pattern, erratic and heavy rainfalls are very common. But changes of rainfall pattern and its amount is still in question to some extent. This study aimed to unfold how the historical rainfalls varied over time and how would be their future trends. In this context, historical rainfall data (1975-2014) were collected from Bangladesh Metrological Department (BMD) and then a time series model was developed using Box-Jenkins algorithm in IBM SPSS to forecast the future rainfall. From the historical data analysis, this study revealed that the amount of rainfall decreased over the time and shifted to the post monsoons. Forecasted rainfall shows that the pre-monsoon and early monsoon will get drier in future whereas late monsoon and post monsoon will show huge fluctuations in rainfall magnitudes with temporal variations which means Bangladesh will get comparatively drier seasons in future which may be a serious problem for the country as it depends on agriculture.

Keywords: Monsoon, Pre-monsoon, rainfall, pattern, variations, IBM-SPSS.

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Authors: Zhengsheng Wang, Jing Qi, Chuntao Liu, Yuanjun Li

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The harmonic Arnoldi method can be used to find interior eigenpairs of large matrices. However, it has been shown that this method may converge erratically and even may fail to do so. In this paper, we present a new method for computing interior eigenpairs of large nonsymmetric matrices, which is called weighted harmonic Arnoldi method. The implementation of the method has been tested by numerical examples, the results show that the method converges fast and works with high accuracy.

Keywords: Harmonic Arnoldi method, weighted harmonic Arnoldi method, eigenpair, interior eigenproblem, non symmetric matrix.

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Authors: Jin Sup Kim, Woo Young Jung, Minho Kwon

Abstract:

In general dynamic analyses, lower mode response is of interest, however the higher modes of spatially discretized equations generally do not represent the real behavior and not affects to global response much. Some implicit algorithms, therefore, are introduced to filter out the high-frequency modes using intended numerical error. The objective of this study is to introduce the P-method and PC α-method to compare that with dissipation method and Newmark method through the stability analysis and numerical example. PC α-method gives more accuracy than other methods because it based on the α-method inherits the superior properties of the implicit α-method. In finite element analysis, the PC α-method is more useful than other methods because it is the explicit scheme and it achieves the second order accuracy and numerical damping simultaneously.

Keywords: Dynamic, α-Method, P-Method, PC α-Method, Newmark method.

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK1GL2X3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on the RK1GL2 method which, in turn, is a particular case of the general RKrGLm method. The RK1GL2X3 method is a fourth-order method, even though its underlying Runge-Kutta method RK1 is the first-order Euler method, and hence, RK1GL2X3 is considerably more efficient than RK1. This enhancement is achieved through an implementation involving triple-nested two-point Gauss- Legendre quadrature.

Keywords: RK1GL2X3, RK1GL2, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, initial value problem, local error, global error.

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Authors: Mohammed Salem Alzahrani

Abstract:

In this paper the optimality of the solution of an existing real word assignment problem known as the seat assignment problem using Seat Assignment Method (SAM) is discussed. SAM is the newly driven method from three existing methods, Hungarian Method, Northwest Corner Method and Least Cost Method in a special way that produces the easiness & fairness among all methods that solve the seat assignment problem.

Keywords: Assignment Problem, Hungarian Method, Least Cost Method, Northwest Corner Method, Seat Assignment Method (SAM), A Real Word Assignment Problem.

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Authors: David M. Jenkins Jr.

Abstract:

Scale Time Offset Robust Modulation (STORM) [1]– [3] is a high bandwidth waveform design that adds time-scale to embedded reference modulations using only time-delay [4]. In an environment where each user has a specific delay and scale, identification of the user with the highest signal power and that user-s phase is facilitated by the STORM processor. Both of these parameters are required in an efficient multiuser detection algorithm. In this paper, the STORM modulation approach is evaluated with a direct sequence spread quadrature phase shift keying (DS-QPSK) system. A misconception of the STORM time scale modulation is that a fine temporal resolution is required at the receiver. STORM will be applied to a QPSK code division multiaccess (CDMA) system by modifying the spreading codes. Specifically, the in-phase code will use a typical spreading code, and the quadrature code will use a time-delayed and time-scaled version of the in-phase code. Subsequently, the same temporal resolution in the receiver is required before and after the application of STORM. In this paper, the bit error performance of STORM in a synchronous CDMA system is evaluated and compared to theory, and the bit error performance of STORM incorporated in a single user WCDMA downlink is presented to demonstrate the applicability of STORM in a modern communication system.

Keywords: Pseudonoise coded communication, Cyclic codes, Code division multiaccess

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Authors: Seifedine Kadry

Abstract:

In this article, our objective is the analysis of the resolution of non-linear differential systems by combining Newton and Continuation (N-C) method. The iterative numerical methods converge where the initial condition is chosen close to the exact solution. The question of choosing the initial condition is answered by N-C method.

Keywords: Continuation Method, Newton Method, Finite Difference Method, Numerical Analysis and Non-Linear partial Differential Equation.

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Authors: Ampon Dhamacharoen, Kanittha Chompuvised

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In this work, we solve multipoint boundary value problems where the boundary value conditions are equations using the Newton-Broyden Shooting method (NBSM).The proposed method is tested upon several problems from the literature and the results are compared with the available exact solution. The experiments are given to illustrate the efficiency and implementation of the method.

Keywords: Boundary value problem; Multipoint equation boundary value problems, Shooting Method, Newton-Broyden method.

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Authors: M. F. Patricio, P. M. Rosa

Abstract:

In this paper a class of numerical methods to solve linear and nonlinear PDEs and also systems of PDEs is developed. The Differential Transform method associated with the Method of Lines (MoL) is used. The theory for linear problems is extended to the nonlinear case, and a recurrence relation is established. This method can achieve an arbitrary high-order accuracy in time. A variable stepsize algorithm and some numerical results are also presented.

Keywords: Method of Lines, Differential Transform Method.

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Authors: Z. Veselý, M. Honner

Abstract:

High power laser – total emissivity method (HPL-TE method) for determination of coatings relative total emissivity dependent on the temperature is introduced. Method principle, experimental and evaluation parts of the method are described. Computer model of HPL-TE method is employed to perform the sensitivity analysis of the effect of method parameters on the sample surface temperature in the positions where the surface temperature and radiation heat flux are measured.

Keywords: High temperature laser testing, measurement ofthermal properties, emissivity, coatings.

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Authors: Ibrahim Abu-Alshaikh

Abstract:

In this study, a new root-finding method for solving nonlinear equations is proposed. This method requires two starting values that do not necessarily bracketing a root. However, when the starting values are selected to be close to a root, the proposed method converges to the root quicker than the secant method. Another advantage over all iterative methods is that; the proposed method usually converges to two distinct roots when the given function has more than one root, that is, the odd iterations of this new technique converge to a root and the even iterations converge to another root. Some numerical examples, including a sine-polynomial equation, are solved by using the proposed method and compared with results obtained by the secant method; perfect agreements are found.

Keywords: Iterative method, root-finding method, sine-polynomial equations, nonlinear equations.

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Authors: N. M. Kamoh, M. C. Soomiyol

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In this work, a five step continuous method for the solution of third order ordinary differential equations was developed in block form using collocation and interpolation techniques of the shifted Legendre polynomial basis function. The method was found to be zero-stable, consistent and convergent. The application of the method in solving third order initial value problem of ordinary differential equations revealed that the method compared favorably with existing methods.

Keywords: Shifted Legendre polynomials, third order block method, discrete method, convergent.

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Authors: Wenlong Liu, Yucheng Liu

Abstract:

This paper introduces the application of seismic wave method in earthquake prediction and early estimation. The advantages of the seismic wave method over the traditional earthquake prediction method are demonstrated. An example is presented in this study to show the accuracy and efficiency of using the seismic wave method in predicting a medium-sized earthquake swarm occurred in Wencheng, Zhejiang, China. By applying this method, correct predictions were made on the day after this earthquake swarm started and the day the maximum earthquake occurred, which provided scientific bases for governmental decision-making.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, earthquake swarm, seismicactivity method, seismic wave method, Wencheng earthquake

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Authors: Foad Saadi, M. Jalali Azizpour, S.A. Zahedi

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The objective of this paper is to present a comparative study of Homotopy Perturbation Method (HPM), Variational Iteration Method (VIM) and Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM) for the semi analytical solution of Kortweg-de Vries (KdV) type equation called KdV. The study have been highlighted the efficiency and capability of aforementioned methods in solving these nonlinear problems which has been arisen from a number of important physical phenomenon.

Keywords: Variational Iteration Method (VIM), HomotopyPerturbation Method (HPM), Homotopy Analysis Method (HAM), KdV Equation.

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Authors: Guangbin Wang, Deyu Sun, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present new preconditioned modified accelerated overrelaxation (MAOR) method for solving linear systems. We compare the spectral radii of the iteration matrices of the preconditioned and the original methods. The comparison results show that the preconditioned MAOR method converges faster than the MAOR method whenever the MAOR method is convergent. Finally, we give one numerical example to confirm our theoretical results.

Keywords: preconditioned, MAOR method, linear system, convergence, comparison.

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Authors: Marrick Neri, Esmeraldo Ronnie Rey Zara

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In this paper, we apply a semismooth active set method to image inpainting. The method exploits primal and dual features of a proposed regularized total variation model, following after the technique presented in [4]. Numerical results show that the method is fast and efficient in inpainting sufficiently thin domains.

Keywords: Active set method, image inpainting, total variation model.

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Authors: Fatemeh Panjeh Ali Beik

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In the present work, we propose a new method for solving the matrix equation AXB=F . The new method can be considered as a generalized form of the well-known global full orthogonalization method (Gl-FOM) for solving multiple linear systems. Hence, the method will be called extended Gl-FOM (EGl- FOM). For implementing EGl-FOM, generalized forms of block Krylov subspace and global Arnoldi process are presented. Finally, some numerical experiments are given to illustrate the efficiency of our new method.

Keywords: Matrix equations, Iterative methods, Block Krylovsubspace methods.

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Authors: Mohammad Taghi Darvishi, Samad Kheybari

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In this paper, the dynamics of a system of two van der Pol oscillators with delayed position and velocity is studied. We provide an approximate solution for this system using parameterexpansion method. Also, we obtain approximate values for frequencies of the system. The parameter-expansion method is more efficient than the perturbation method for this system because the method is independent of perturbation parameter assumption.

Keywords: Parameter-expansion method, coupled van der pol oscillator, time-delay system.

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Authors: M. K. Balyan

Abstract:

The main principles of X-ray Fourier interferometric holography method are discussed. The object image is reconstructed by the mathematical method of Fourier transformation. The three methods are presented – method of approximation, iteration method and step by step method. As an example the complex amplitude transmission coefficient reconstruction of a beryllium wire is considered. The results reconstructed by three presented methods are compared. The best results are obtained by means of step by step method.

Keywords: Dynamical diffraction, hologram, object image, X-ray holography.

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Authors: Bib Paruhum Silalahi, Djihad Wungguli, Sugi Guritman

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Steepest descent method is a simple gradient method for optimization. This method has a slow convergence in heading to the optimal solution, which occurs because of the zigzag form of the steps. Barzilai and Borwein modified this algorithm so that it performs well for problems with large dimensions. Barzilai and Borwein method results have sparked a lot of research on the method of steepest descent, including alternate minimization gradient method and Yuan method. Inspired by previous works, we modified the step size of the steepest descent method. We then compare the modification results against the Barzilai and Borwein method, alternate minimization gradient method and Yuan method for quadratic function cases in terms of the iterations number and the running time. The average results indicate that the steepest descent method with the new step sizes provide good results for small dimensions and able to compete with the results of Barzilai and Borwein method and the alternate minimization gradient method for large dimensions. The new step sizes have faster convergence compared to the other methods, especially for cases with large dimensions.

Keywords: Convergence, iteration, line search, running time, steepest descent, unconstrained optimization.

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Authors: Ju-Seok Kim, Sun-Ae Moon, Tae-Gu Lee, Seung-Jae Moon, Jae-Heon Lee

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As a simple to method estimate the plant heating energy capacity of an apartment complex, a new load calculation method has been proposed. The method which can be called as unit building method, predicts the heating load of the entire complex instead of summing up that of each apartment belonging to complex. Comparison of the unit heating load for various floor sizes between the present method and conventional approach shows a close agreement with dynamic load calculation code. Some additional calculations are performed to demonstrate it-s application examples.

Keywords: Unit Building Method, Unit Heating Load, TFMLoad.

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Authors: Oleksandr Poliakov, Yevgen Pashkov, Marina Kolesova, Olena Chepenyuk, Mykhaylo Kalinin, Vadym Kramar

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In this paper we present a substantiation of a new Laguerre-s type iterative method for solving of a nonlinear polynomial equations systems with real coefficients. The problems of its implementation, including relating to the structural choice of initial approximations, were considered. Test examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the method at the solving of many practical problems solving.

Keywords: Iterative method, Laguerre's method, Newton's method, polynomial equation, system of equations

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