Search results for: Bayesian reasoning

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: Human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset.

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Authors: Davood Shishebori, Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad, Sina Seifi

Abstract:

In this paper, a variable multiple dependent state (MDS) sampling plan is developed based on the process capability index using Bayesian approach. The optimal parameters of the developed sampling plan with respect to constraints related to the risk of consumer and producer are presented. Two comparison studies have been done. First, the methods of double sampling model, sampling plan for resubmitted lots and repetitive group sampling (RGS) plan are elaborated and average sample numbers of the developed MDS plan and other classical methods are compared. A comparison study between the developed MDS plan based on Bayesian approach and the exact probability distribution is carried out.

Keywords: MDS sampling plan, RGS plan, sampling plan for resubmitted lots, process capability index, average sample number, Bayesian approach.

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Authors: Yang Cui, Yong Qiang Chen

Abstract:

An appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is crucial to the success of a construction projects. Case-based Reasoning (CBR) is a useful support for PDS selection. However, the traditional CBR approach represents cases as attribute-value vectors without taking relations among attributes into consideration, and could not calculate the similarity when the structures of cases are not strictly same. Therefore, this paper solves this problem by adopting the Relational Case-based Reasoning (RCBR) approach for PDS selection, considering both the structural similarity and feature similarity. To develop the feature terms of the construction projects, the criteria and factors governing PDS selection process are first identified. Then feature terms for the construction projects are developed. Finally, the mechanism of similarity calculation and a case study indicate how RCBR works for PDS selection. The adoption of RCBR in PDS selection expands the scope of application of traditional CBR method and improves the accuracy of the PDS selection system.

Keywords: Relational Cased-based Reasoning, Case-based Reasoning, Project delivery system, Selection.

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Authors: Darwina Arshad, Paul Hughes

Abstract:

Recent environmental turbulence including financial crisis, intensified competitive forces, rapid technological change and high market turbulence have dramatically changed the current business climate. The managers firms have to plan and decide what the best approaches that best fit their firms in order to pursue superior performance. This research aims to examine the influence of strategic reasoning and top level managers- individual characteristics on the effectiveness of organizational improvisation and firm performance. Given the lack of studies on these relationships in the previous literature, there is significant contribution to the body of knowledge as well as for managerial practices. 128 responses from top management of technology-based companies in Malaysia were used as a sample. Three hypotheses were examined and the findings confirm that (a) there is no relationship between intuitive reasoning and organizational improvisation but there is a link between rational reasoning and organizational improvisation, (b) top level managers- individual characteristics as a whole affect organizational improvisation; and (c) organizational improvisation positively affects firm performance. The theoretical and managerial implications were discussed in the conclusions.

Keywords: Organizational improvisation, strategic reasoning, firm performance.

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Authors: S.K. Satpathy, S.K. Nayak, K. K. Nagwanshi, S. Panda, C. Ardil

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Image restoration involves elimination of noise. Filtering techniques were adopted so far to restore images since last five decades. In this paper, we consider the problem of image restoration degraded by a blur function and corrupted by random noise. A method for reducing additive noise in images by explicit analysis of local image statistics is introduced and compared to other noise reduction methods. The proposed method, which makes use of an a priori noise model, has been evaluated on various types of images. Bayesian based algorithms and technique of image processing have been described and substantiated with experimentation using MATLAB.

Keywords: Image Restoration, Probability DensityFunction (PDF), Neural Networks, Bayesian Classifier.

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Authors: Hong Choon Ong

Abstract:

Naïve Bayes classifiers are simple probabilistic classifiers. Classification extracts patterns by using data file with a set of labeled training examples and is currently one of the most significant areas in data mining. However, Naïve Bayes assumes the independence among the features. Structural learning among the features thus helps in the classification problem. In this study, the use of structural learning in Bayesian Network is proposed to be applied where there are relationships between the features when using the Naïve Bayes. The improvement in the classification using structural learning is shown if there exist relationship between the features or when they are not independent.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, Classification, Naïve Bayes, Structural Learning.

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Authors: Elionai Moura, José A. da Cunha, César Analide

Abstract:

This paper introduces a proposal scheme for an Intelligent System applied to Pedagogical Advising using Case-Based Reasoning, to find consolidated solutions before used for the new problems, making easier the task of advising students to the pedagogical staff. We do intend, through this work, introduce the motivation behind the choices for this system structure, justifying the development of an incremental and smart web system who learns bests solutions for new cases when it’s used, showing technics and technology.

Keywords: Case-based Reasoning, Pedagogical Advising, Educational Data-Mining (EDM), Machine Learning.

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Authors: A. R. Vazifedoost, M. Rahgozar, F. Oroumchian

Abstract:

Knowledge discovery from text and ontology learning are relatively new fields. However their usage is extended in many fields like Information Retrieval (IR) and its related domains. Human Plausible Reasoning based (HPR) IR systems for example need a knowledge base as their underlying system which is currently made by hand. In this paper we propose an architecture based on ontology learning methods to automatically generate the needed HPR knowledge base.

Keywords: Ontology Learning, Human Plausible Reasoning, knowledge extraction, knowledge representation.

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Authors: Yanhui Zhang, Wenyu Yang

Abstract:

One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: Bayesian method, damage detection, fiber Bragg grating, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: Sahar Sohrabi

Abstract:

The emergence of Cloud data centers has revolutionized the IT industry. Private Clouds in specific provide Cloud services for certain group of customers/businesses. In a real-time private Cloud each task that is given to the system has a deadline that desirably should not be violated. Scheduling tasks in a real-time private CLoud determine the way available resources in the system are shared among incoming tasks. The aim of the scheduling policy is to optimize the system outcome which for a real-time private Cloud can include: energy consumption, deadline violation, execution time and the number of host switches. Different scheduling policies can be used for scheduling. Each lead to a sub-optimal outcome in a certain settings of the system. A Bayesian Scheduling strategy is proposed for scheduling to further improve the system outcome. The Bayesian strategy showed to outperform all selected policies. It also has the flexibility in dealing with complex pattern of incoming task and has the ability to adapt.

Keywords: Bayesian, cloud computing, real-time private cloud, scheduling.

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Authors: Susan J. Simmons, Fang Fang, Qijun Fang, Karl Ricanek

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Quantitative trait loci (QTL) experiments have yielded important biological and biochemical information necessary for understanding the relationship between genetic markers and quantitative traits. For many years, most QTL algorithms only allowed one observation per genotype. Recently, there has been an increasing demand for QTL algorithms that can accommodate more than one observation per genotypic distribution. The Bayesian hierarchical model is very flexible and can easily incorporate this information into the model. Herein a methodology is presented that uses a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the complexity of the data. Furthermore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo model composition (MC3) algorithm is used to search and identify important markers. An extensive simulation study illustrates that the method captures the true QTL, even under nonnormal noise and up to 6 QTL.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Markov chain MonteCarlo model composition, quantitative trait loci.

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Authors: C. Ramsauer, J. Karandikar, D. Leitner, T. Schmitz, F. Bleicher

Abstract:

Machining instability, or chatter, can impose an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the TU Wien, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut were used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on a frequency analysis. The test cut result was used in a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculated the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed based on the test result and recommended parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations was repeated until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set was achieved.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, instrumented tool holder, machining stability, optimization strategy.

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Authors: Fiona Browne, Huiru Zheng, Haiying Wang, Francisco Azuaje

Abstract:

Recent years have seen a growing trend towards the integration of multiple information sources to support large-scale prediction of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in model organisms. Despite advances in computational approaches, the combination of multiple “omic" datasets representing the same type of data, e.g. different gene expression datasets, has not been rigorously studied. Furthermore, there is a need to further investigate the inference capability of powerful approaches, such as fullyconnected Bayesian networks, in the context of the prediction of PPI networks. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a Bayesian approach to integrate multiple datasets, some of which encode the same type of “omic" data to support the identification of PPI networks. The case study reported involved the combination of three gene expression datasets relevant to human heart failure (HF). In comparison with two traditional methods, Naive Bayesian and maximum likelihood ratio approaches, the proposed technique can accurately identify known PPI and can be applied to infer potentially novel interactions.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Classification, Data integration, Protein interaction networks.

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Authors: Wojciech P. Gajewski

Abstract:

The problem of spam has been seriously troubling the Internet community during the last few years and currently reached an alarming scale. Observations made at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research located in Geneva, Switzerland) show that spam mails can constitute up to 75% of daily SMTP traffic. A naïve Bayesian classifier based on a Bag Of Words representation of an email is widely used to stop this unwanted flood as it combines good performance with simplicity of the training and classification processes. However, facing the constantly changing patterns of spam, it is necessary to assure online adaptability of the classifier. This work proposes combining such a classifier with another NBC (naïve Bayesian classifier) based on pairs of adjacent words. Only the latter will be retrained with examples of spam reported by users. Tests are performed on considerable sets of mails both from public spam archives and CERN mailboxes. They suggest that this architecture can increase spam recall without affecting the classifier precision as it happens when only the NBC based on single words is retrained.

Keywords: Text classification, naïve Bayesian classification, spam, email.

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

Abstract:

Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Classification, Bayesian network; structure learning, K2 algorithm, expert knowledge, surface water analysis.

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

Abstract:

Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location, and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance and within study variance, and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: Random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation.

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Authors: Abdel-Badeeh M. Salem

Abstract:

Case based reasoning (CBR) methodology presents a foundation for a new technology of building intelligent computeraided diagnoses systems. This Technology directly addresses the problems found in the traditional Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, e.g. the problems of knowledge acquisition, remembering, robust and maintenance. This paper discusses the CBR methodology, the research issues and technical aspects of implementing intelligent medical diagnoses systems. Successful applications in cancer and heart diseases developed by Medical Informatics Research Group at Ain Shams University are also discussed.

Keywords: Medical Informatics, Computer-Aided MedicalDiagnoses, AI in Medicine, Case-Based Reasoning.

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Authors: M. Das Gupta, S. Banerjee

Abstract:

Content Based Image Retrieval (CBIR) coupled with Case Based Reasoning (CBR) is a paradigm that is becoming increasingly popular in the diagnosis and therapy planning of medical ailments utilizing the digital content of medical images. This paper presents a survey of some of the promising approaches used in the detection of abnormalities in retina images as well in mammographic screening and detection of regions of interest in MRI scans of the brain. We also describe our proposed algorithm to detect hard exudates in fundus images of the retina of Diabetic Retinopathy patients.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Exudates, Retina image, Similarity based retrieval.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

Abstract:

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, lead battery smelter factory, health risk assessment.

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Chi-Lun Liu

Abstract:

Requirements modeling and analysis are important in successful information systems' maintenance. Unified Modeling Language (UML) class diagrams are useful standards for modeling information systems. To our best knowledge, there is a lack of a systems development methodology described by the organism metaphor. The core concept of this metaphor is adaptation. Using the knowledge representation and reasoning approach and ontologies to adopt new requirements are emergent in recent years. This paper proposes an organic methodology which is based on constructivism theory. This methodology is a knowledge representation and reasoning approach to analyze new requirements in the class diagrams maintenance. The process and rules in the proposed methodology automatically analyze inconsistencies in the class diagram. In the big data era, developing an automatic tool based on the proposed methodology to analyze large amounts of class diagram data is an important research topic in the future.

Keywords: Knowledge representation, reasoning, ontology, class diagram, software engineering.

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Authors: Theodosia Prodromou

Abstract:

The article investigates how 14- to 15- year-olds build informal conceptions of inferential statistics as they engage in a modelling process and build their own computer simulations with dynamic statistical software. This study proposes four primary phases of informal inferential reasoning for the students in the statistical modeling and simulation process. Findings show shifts in the conceptual structures across the four phases and point to the potential of all of these phases for fostering the development of students- robust knowledge of the logic of inference when using computer based simulations to model and investigate statistical questions.

Keywords: Inferential reasoning, learning, modelling, statistical inference, simulation.

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Authors: Alicia Y. C. Tang, Rukaini Abdullah, Sharifuddin M. Zain, Noorsaadah A. Rahman

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This paper discusses the causal explanation capability of QRIOM, a tool aimed at supporting learning of organic chemistry reactions. The development of the tool is based on the hybrid use of Qualitative Reasoning (QR) technique and Qualitative Process Theory (QPT) ontology. Our simulation combines symbolic, qualitative description of relations with quantity analysis to generate causal graphs. The pedagogy embedded in the simulator is to both simulate and explain organic reactions. Qualitative reasoning through a causal chain will be presented to explain the overall changes made on the substrate; from initial substrate until the production of final outputs. Several uses of the QPT modeling constructs in supporting behavioral and causal explanation during run-time will also be demonstrated. Explaining organic reactions through causal graph trace can help improve the reasoning ability of learners in that their conceptual understanding of the subject is nurtured.

Keywords: Qualitative reasoning, causal graph, organicreactions, explanation, QPT, modeling constructs.

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Authors: M. Winkens, P. Nyhuis

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Components with sensory properties such as gentelligent components developed at the Collaborative Research Centre 653 offer a new angle in terms of the full utilization of the remaining service life as well as preventive maintenance. The developed methodology of component status driven maintenance analyzes the stress data obtained during the component's useful life and on the basis of this knowledge assesses the type of maintenance required in this case. The procedure is derived from the case-based reasoning method and will be explained in detail. The method's functionality is demonstrated with real-life data obtained during test runs of a racing car prototype.

Keywords: Gentelligent Components, Preventive Maintenance, Case based Reasoning.

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Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

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Several combinations of the preprocessing algorithms, feature selection techniques and classifiers can be applied to the data classification tasks. This study introduces a new accurate classifier, the proposed classifier consist from four components: Signal-to- Noise as a feature selection technique, support vector machine, Bayesian neural network and AdaBoost as an ensemble algorithm. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed classifier, seven well known classifiers are applied to four datasets. The experiments show that using the suggested classifier enhances the classification rates for all datasets.

Keywords: AdaBoost, Bayesian neural network, Signal-to-Noise, support vector machine, MCMC.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Jieun Kim, Yongtae Park, Hakyeon Lee

Abstract:

The emergence of mobile application services and App Store has led to the explosive growth of user innovation, which users voluntarily contribute to. User innovation communities where end users freely reveal innovative ideas and needs with other community members are becoming increasingly influential in this area. However, user-s ideas in user innovation community are not enough to be new service opportunity, because some of them can already developed as existing services in App Store. Moreover, the existing services similar to new service opportunity can be significant references to apply analogy to develop service concept. In response, this research proposes Case-Based Reasoning approach to matching the user needs and existing services, identifying unmet opportunistic user needs, and retrieving similar services with opportunity. Due to its intuitive and transparent algorithm, users related to App Store innovation communities can easily employ Case-Based Reasoning based approach to their innovation.

Keywords: App Store, Case-Based Reasoning, Mobile Application Service, User innovation community.

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Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis

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In this contribution a newly developed elearning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.

Keywords: E-learning environments, intelligent agents, user modeling, Bayesian Networks, computational intelligence.

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Authors: Ching Louis Liu, Edmund Kazmierczak, Tim Miller

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Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.

Keywords: Multi-agent system, safety analysis, safety model.

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