Search results for: Adaptive prediction

Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

Abstract:

Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

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Authors: Franco Frattolillo

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The advances in multimedia and networking technologies have created opportunities for Internet pirates, who can easily copy multimedia contents and illegally distribute them on the Internet, thus violating the legal rights of content owners. This paper describes how a simple and well-known watermarking procedure based on a spread spectrum method and a watermark recovery by correlation can be improved to effectively and adaptively protect MPEG-2 videos distributed on the Internet. In fact, the procedure, in its simplest form, is vulnerable to a variety of attacks. However, its security and robustness have been increased, and its behavior has been made adaptive with respect to the video terminals used to open the videos and the network transactions carried out to deliver them to buyers. In fact, such an adaptive behavior enables the proposed procedure to efficiently embed watermarks, and this characteristic makes the procedure well suited to be exploited in web contexts, where watermarks usually generated from fingerprinting codes have to be inserted into the distributed videos “on the fly", i.e. during the purchase web transactions.

Keywords: Copyright protection, digital watermarking, intellectualproperty protection.

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Authors: S. A. Gawish, F. A. Khalifa, R. M. Mostafa

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This paper presents Simulation and experimental study aimed at investigating the effectiveness of an adaptive artificial neural network stabilizer on enhancing the damping torque of a synchronous generator. For this purpose, a power system comprising a synchronous generator feeding a large power system through a short tie line is considered. The proposed adaptive neuro-control system consists of two multi-layered feed forward neural networks, which work as a plant model identifier and a controller. It generates supplementary control signals to be utilized by conventional controllers. The details of the interfacing circuits, sensors and transducers, which have been designed and built for use in tests, are presented. The synchronous generator is tested to investigate the effect of tuning a Power System Stabilizer (PSS) on its dynamic stability. The obtained simulation and experimental results verify the basic theoretical concepts.

Keywords: Adaptive artificial neural network, power system stabilizer, synchronous generator.

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Authors: Xinyue Zhao, Yutaka Satoh, Hidenori Takauji, Shun'ichi Kaneko

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A hybrid feature based adaptive particle filter algorithm is presented for object tracking in real scenarios with static camera. The hybrid feature is combined by two effective features: the Grayscale Arranging Pairs (GAP) feature and the color histogram feature. The GAP feature has high discriminative ability even under conditions of severe illumination variation and dynamic background elements, while the color histogram feature has high reliability to identify the detected objects. The combination of two features covers the shortage of single feature. Furthermore, we adopt an updating target model so that some external problems such as visual angles can be overcame well. An automatic initialization algorithm is introduced which provides precise initial positions of objects. The experimental results show the good performance of the proposed method.

Keywords: Hybrid feature, adaptive Particle Filter, robust Object Tracking, Grayscale Arranging Pairs (GAP) feature.

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Authors: Qiuyu Dai, Haochong Zhang, Xiangrong Liu

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Efficient matrix-vector multiplication with diagonal sparse matrices is pivotal in a multitude of computational domains, ranging from scientific simulations to machine learning workloads. When encoded in the conventional Diagonal (DIA) format, these matrices often induce computational overheads due to extensive zero-padding and non-linear memory accesses, which can hamper the computational throughput, and elevate the usage of precious compute and memory resources beyond necessity. The ’DIA-Adaptive’ approach, a methodological enhancement introduced in this paper, confronts these challenges head-on by leveraging the advanced parallel instruction sets embedded within Machine Learning Units (MLUs). This research presents a thorough analysis of the DIA-Adaptive scheme’s efficacy in optimizing Sparse Matrix-Vector Multiplication (SpMV) operations. The scope of the evaluation extends to a variety of hardware architectures, examining the repercussions of distinct thread allocation strategies and cluster configurations across multiple storage formats. A dedicated computational kernel, intrinsic to the DIA-Adaptive approach, has been meticulously developed to synchronize with the nuanced performance characteristics of MLUs. Empirical results, derived from rigorous experimentation, reveal that the DIA-Adaptive methodology not only diminishes the performance bottlenecks associated with the DIA format but also exhibits pronounced enhancements in execution speed and resource utilization. The analysis delineates a marked improvement in parallelism, showcasing the DIA-Adaptive scheme’s ability to adeptly manage the interplay between storage formats, hardware capabilities, and algorithmic design. The findings suggest that this approach could set a precedent for accelerating SpMV tasks, thereby contributing significantly to the broader domain of high-performance computing and data-intensive applications.

Keywords: Adaptive method, DIA, diagonal sparse matrices, MLU, sparse matrix-vector multiplication.

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Authors: Leehter Yao, Chin-Chin Lin

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An adaptive fuzzy PID controller with gain scheduling is proposed in this paper. The structure of the proposed gain scheduled fuzzy PID (GS_FPID) controller consists of both fuzzy PI-like controller and fuzzy PD-like controller. Both of fuzzy PI-like and PD-like controllers are weighted through adaptive gain scheduling, which are also determined by fuzzy logic inference. A modified genetic algorithm called accumulated genetic algorithm is designed to learn the parameters of fuzzy inference system. In order to learn the number of fuzzy rules required for the TSK model, the fuzzy rules are learned in an accumulated way. In other words, the parameters learned in the previous rules are accumulated and updated along with the parameters in the current rule. It will be shown that the proposed GS_FPID controllers learned by the accumulated GA perform well for not only the regular linear systems but also the higher order and time-delayed systems.

Keywords: Gain scheduling, fuzzy PID controller, adaptive control, genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Je Young Lee, Hee Sung Kim, Kwang Ho Choi, Joonhoo Lim, Sebum Chun, Hyung Keun Lee

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This study is purposed to develop an efficient fault detection method for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) applications based on adaptive noise covariance estimation. Due to the dependence on radio frequency signals, GNSS measurements are dominated by systematic errors in receiver’s operating environment. In the proposed method, the pseudorange and carrier-phase measurement noise covariances are obtained at time propagations and measurement updates in process of Carrier-Smoothed Code (CSC) filtering, respectively. The test statistics for fault detection are generated by the estimated measurement noise covariances. To evaluate the fault detection capability, intentional faults were added to the filed-collected measurements. The experiment result shows that the proposed method is efficient in detecting unhealthy measurements and improves GNSS positioning accuracy against fault occurrences.

Keywords: Adaptive estimation, fault detection, GNSS, residual.

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Authors: Li Kewen, Su Zhaoxin, Wang Xingmou, Zhu Jian Bing

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Conventional reservoir prediction methods ar not sufficient to explore the implicit relation between seismic attributes, and thus data utilization is low. In order to improve the predictive classification accuracy of reservoir lithology, this paper proposes a deep learning lithology prediction method based on ResNet (Residual Neural Network) and SENet (Squeeze-and-Excitation Neural Network). The neural network model is built and trained by using seismic attribute data and lithology data of Shengli oilfield, and the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attribute and lithology marker is established. The experimental results show that this method can significantly improve the classification effect of reservoir lithology, and the classification accuracy is close to 70%. This study can effectively predict the lithology of undrilled area and provide support for exploration and development.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, lithology, prediction of reservoir lithology, seismic attributes.

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Authors: Oğuzhan Hasançebi, Saeid Kazemzadeh Azad

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Keywords: Structural design optimization, optimal sizing, metaheuristics, self-adaptive step-size search, steel trusses, steel frames.}

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

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Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: Abiodun M. Aibinu, Momoh J. E. Salami, Amir A. Shafie, Athaur Rahman Najeeb

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In this paper, novel techniques in increasing the accuracy and speed of convergence of a Feed forward Back propagation Artificial Neural Network (FFBPNN) with polynomial activation function reported in literature is presented. These technique was subsequently used to determine the coefficients of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive (AR) system. The results obtained by introducing sequential and batch method of weight initialization, batch method of weight and coefficient update, adaptive momentum and learning rate technique gives more accurate result and significant reduction in convergence time when compared t the traditional method of back propagation algorithm, thereby making FFBPNN an appropriate technique for online ARMA coefficient determination.

Keywords: Adaptive Learning rate, Adaptive momentum, Autoregressive, Modeling, Neural Network.

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Authors: Mohammad Shams Esfand Abadi, Nader Hadizadeh Kashani, Vahid Mehrdad

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In this paper we present a general formalism for the establishment of the family of selective regressor affine projection algorithms (SR-APA). The SR-APA, the SR regularized APA (SR-RAPA), the SR partial rank algorithm (SR-PRA), the SR binormalized data reusing least mean squares (SR-BNDR-LMS), and the SR normalized LMS with orthogonal correction factors (SR-NLMS-OCF) algorithms are established by this general formalism. We demonstrate the performance of the presented algorithms through simulations in acoustic echo cancellation scenario.

Keywords: Adaptive filter, affine projection, selective regressor.

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Authors: Anouar Ben Khalifa, Sami Gazzah, Najoua Essoukri BenAmara

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Multimodal biometric systems integrate the data presented by multiple biometric sources, hence offering a better performance than the systems based on a single biometric modality. Although the coupling of biometric systems can be done at different levels, the fusion at the scores level is the most common since it has been proven effective than the rest of the fusion levels. However, the scores from different modalities are generally heterogeneous. A step of normalizing the scores is needed to transform these scores into a common domain before combining them. In this paper, we study the performance of several normalization techniques with various fusion methods in a context relating to the merger of three unimodal systems based on the face, the palmprint and the fingerprint. We also propose a new adaptive normalization method that takes into account the distribution of client scores and impostor scores. Experiments conducted on a database of 100 people show that the performances of a multimodal system depend on the choice of the normalization method and the fusion technique. The proposed normalization method has given the best results.

Keywords: Multibiometrics, Fusion, Score level, Score normalization, Adaptive normalization.

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Authors: Li-Yeh Chuang, Yu-Jen Hou, Jr., Cheng-Hong Yang

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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) hold much promise as a basis for disease-gene association. However, research is limited by the cost of genotyping the tremendous number of SNPs. Therefore, it is important to identify a small subset of informative SNPs, the so-called tag SNPs. This subset consists of selected SNPs of the genotypes, and accurately represents the rest of the SNPs. Furthermore, an effective evaluation method is needed to evaluate prediction accuracy of a set of tag SNPs. In this paper, a genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to tag SNP problems, and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) serves as a prediction method of tag SNP selection. The experimental data used was taken from the HapMap project; it consists of genotype data rather than haplotype data. The proposed method consistently identified tag SNPs with considerably better prediction accuracy than methods from the literature. At the same time, the number of tag SNPs identified was smaller than the number of tag SNPs in the other methods. The run time of the proposed method was much shorter than the run time of the SVM/STSA method when the same accuracy was reached.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Genotype, Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), tag SNPs.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.

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Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

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We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.

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Authors: Nebi Gedik

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Regardless of age or gender, cardiovascular illnesses are a serious health concern because of things like poor eating habits, stress, a sedentary lifestyle, hard work schedules, alcohol use, and weight. It tends to happen suddenly and has a high rate of recurrence. Machine learning models can be implemented to assist healthcare systems in the accurate detection and diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients. Improved heart failure prediction is one of the primary goals of researchers using the heart disease dataset. The purpose of this study is to identify the feature or features that offer the best classification prediction for CVD detection. The support vector machine classifier is used to compare each feature's performance. It has been determined which feature produces the best results.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease, feature extraction, supervised learning, support vector machine.

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Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

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Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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Authors: Jamalizadeh, M.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Piri, J., Arbabi, V., Homayounifar, M., Shahryari, A.

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Dust storms are one of the most costly and destructive events in many desert regions. They can cause massive damages both in natural environments and human lives. This paper is aimed at presenting a preliminary study on dust storms, as a major natural hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. As a case study, dust storm events occurred in Zabol city located in Sistan Region of Iran was analyzed to diagnose and predict dust storms. The identification and prediction of dust storm events could have significant impacts on damages reduction. Present models for this purpose are complicated and not appropriate for many areas with poor-data environments. The present study explores Gamma test for identifying inputs of ANNs model, for dust storm prediction. Results indicate that more attempts must be carried out concerning dust storms identification and segregate between various dust storm types.

Keywords: Dust Storm, Gamma Test, Prediction, ANNs, Zabol.

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Authors: Indra Budi, Rizal Fathoni Aji, Agus Widodo

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Prediction of future research topics by using time series analysis either statistical or machine learning has been conducted previously by several researchers. Several methods have been proposed to combine the forecasting results into single forecast. These methods use fixed combination of individual forecast to get the final forecast result. In this paper, quite different approach is employed to select the forecasting methods, in which every point to forecast is calculated by using the best methods used by similar validation dataset. The dataset used in the experiment is time series derived from research report in Garuda, which is an online sites belongs to the Ministry of Education in Indonesia, over the past 20 years. The experimental result demonstrates that the proposed method may perform better compared to the fix combination of predictors. In addition, based on the prediction result, we can forecast emerging research topics for the next few years.

Keywords: Combination, emerging topics, ensemble, forecasting, machine learning, prediction, research topics, similarity measure, time series.

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Authors: Ardeshir Karami Mohammadi

Abstract:

A Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller using state variables is proposed for a class of multi input-multi output systems. Adaptation law is of variable structure type and switching functions is designed based on stability requirements. Global exponential stability is proved based on Lyapunov criterion. Transient behavior is analyzed using sliding mode control and shows perfect model following at a finite time.

Keywords: Adaptive control, Model reference, Variablestructure, MIMO system.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

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The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Mesfer Al Duhayyim, Paul Newbury

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This paper proposes an effective adaptive e-learning system that uses a coloured concept map to show the learner's knowledge level for each concept in the chosen subject area. A Fuzzy logic system is used to evaluate the learner's knowledge level for each concept in the domain, and produce a ranked concept list of learning materials to address weaknesses in the learner’s understanding. This system obtains information on the learner's understanding of concepts by an initial pre-test before the system is used for learning and a post-test after using the learning system. A Fuzzy logic system is used to produce a weighted concept map during the learning process. The aim of this research is to prove that such a proposed novel adapted e-learning system will enhance learner's performance and understanding. In addition, this research aims to increase participants' overall understanding of their learning level by providing a coloured concept map of understanding followed by a ranked concepts list of learning materials.

Keywords: Adaptive e-learning system, coloured concept map, fuzzy logic, ranked concept list.

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluation of railpads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: Rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction.

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Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

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The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: Central ML, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local ML, Wireless Sensor Networks, WSN.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Sandeep Khimta, Kiranpreet Kaur

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The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.

Keywords: Growing Neural Gas, data clustering, fault prediction.

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e, meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: Deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism.

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Authors: H. Krouma, M. Barkat, K. Kemih, M. Benslama, Y. Yacine

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In this paper, we consider the analysis of the acquisition process for a hybrid double-dwell system with antenna diversity for DS-CDMA (direct sequence-code division multiple access) using an adaptive threshold. Acquisition systems with a fixed threshold value are unable to adapt to fast varying mobile communications environments and may result in a high false alarm rate, and/or low detection probability. Therefore, we propose an adaptively varying threshold scheme through the use of a cellaveraging constant false alarm rate (CA-CFAR) algorithm, which is well known in the field of radar detection. We derive exact expressions for the probabilities of detection and false alarm in Rayleigh fading channels. The mean acquisition time of the system under consideration is also derived. The performance of the system is analyzed and compared to that of a hybrid single dwell system.

Keywords: Adaptive threshold, hybrid double-dwell system, CA-CFAR algorithm, DS-CDMA.

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Authors: Jiakai Li, Gursel Serpen, Steven Selman, Matt Franchetti, Mike Riesen, Cynthia Schneider

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This paper presents the development of a Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status and survival period in renal transplantation using the patient profile information prior to the transplantation. The objective was to explore feasibility of developing a decision making tool for identifying the most suitable recipient among the candidate pool members. The dataset was compiled from the University of Toledo Medical Center Hospital patients as reported to the United Network Organ Sharing, and had 1228 patient records for the period covering 1987 through 2009. The Bayes net classifiers were developed using the Weka machine learning software workbench. Two separate classifiers were induced from the data set, one to predict the status of the graft as either failed or living, and a second classifier to predict the graft survival period. The classifier for graft status prediction performed very well with a prediction accuracy of 97.8% and true positive values of 0.967 and 0.988 for the living and failed classes, respectively. The second classifier to predict the graft survival period yielded a prediction accuracy of 68.2% and a true positive rate of 0.85 for the class representing those instances with kidneys failing during the first year following transplantation. Simulation results indicated that it is feasible to develop a successful Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status, but not the graft survival period, using the information in UNOS database.

Keywords: Bayesian network classifier, renal transplantation, graft survival period, United Network for Organ Sharing

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