Search results for: Accident release

Authors: Usha Lokala, Srinivas Nowduri, Prabhakar K. Sharma

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Useful information has been extracted from the road accident data in United Kingdom (UK), using data analytics method, for avoiding possible accidents in rural and urban areas. This analysis make use of several methodologies such as data integration, support vector machines (SVM), correlation machines and multinomial goodness. The entire datasets have been imported from the traffic department of UK with due permission. The information extracted from these huge datasets forms a basis for several predictions, which in turn avoid unnecessary memory lapses. Since data is expected to grow continuously over a period of time, this work primarily proposes a new framework model which can be trained and adapt itself to new data and make accurate predictions. This work also throws some light on use of SVM’s methodology for text classifiers from the obtained traffic data. Finally, it emphasizes the uniqueness and adaptability of SVMs methodology appropriate for this kind of research work.

Keywords: Road accident, machine learning, support vector machines.

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Authors: M. Belén Prendes-Gero, Celestino González-Nicieza, M. Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernández

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Roof collapse is one of the problems with a higher frequency in most of the mines of all countries, even now. There are many reasons that may cause the roof to collapse, namely the mine stress activities in the mining process, the lack of vigilance and carelessness or the complexity of the geological structure and irregular operations. This work is the result of the analysis of one accident produced in the “Mary” coal exploitation located in northern Spain. In this accident, the roof of a crossroad of excavated galleries to exploit the “Morena” Layer, 700 m deep, collapsed. In the paper, the work done by the forensic team to determine the causes of the incident, its conclusions and recommendations are collected. Initially, the available documentation (geology, geotechnics, mining, etc.) and accident area were reviewed. After that, laboratory and on-site tests were carried out to characterize the behaviour of the rock materials and the support used (metal frames and shotcrete). With this information, different hypotheses of failure were simulated to find the one that best fits reality. For this work, the software of finite differences in three dimensions, FLAC 3D, was employed. The results of the study confirmed that the detachment was originated as a consequence of one sliding in the layer wall, due to the large roof span present in the place of the accident, and probably triggered as a consequence of the existence of a protection pillar insufficient. The results allowed to establish some corrective measures avoiding future risks. For example, the dimensions of the protection zones that must be remained unexploited and their interaction with the crossing areas between galleries, or the use of more adequate supports for these conditions, in which the significant deformations may discourage the use of rigid supports such as shotcrete. At last, a grid of seismic control was proposed as a predictive system. Its efficiency was tested along the investigation period employing three control equipment that detected new incidents (although smaller) in other similar areas of the mine. These new incidents show that the use of explosives produces vibrations which are a new risk factor to analyse in a next future.

Keywords: Forensic analysis, hypothesis modelling, roof failure, seismic monitoring.

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Authors: Musthaya Patchanee

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This research aimed to study form of traffic distribution and environmental factors of road that affect traffic accidents in Dusit District, only areas responsible of Samsen Police Station. Data used in this analysis is the secondary data of traffic accident case from year 2011. Observed area units are 15 traffic lines that are under responsible of Samsen Police Station. Technique and method used are the Cartographic Method, the Correlation Analysis, and the Multiple Regression Analysis. The results of form of traffic accidents show that, the Samsen Road area had most traffic accidents (24.29%), second was Rachvithi Road(18.10%), third was Sukhothai Road (15.71%), fourth was Rachasrima Road (12.38%), and fifth was Amnuaysongkram Road(7.62%). The result from Dusit District, onlyareasresponsibleofSamsen police station, has suggested that the scale of accidents have high positive correlation with statistic significant at level 0.05 and the frequency of travel (r=0.857). Traffic intersection point (r=0.763)and traffic control equipments (r=0.713) are relevant factors respectively. By using the Multiple Regression Analysis, travel frequency is the only one that has considerable influences on traffic accidents in Dusit district only Samsen Police Station area. Also, a factor in frequency of travel can explain the change in traffic accidents scale to 73.40 (R² = 0.734). By using the Multiple regression summation from analysis was Ŷ=-7.977+0.044X6

Keywords: Form of Traffic Distribution, Environmental Factors of road, Traffic Accidents, Dusit District.

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Authors: A.L.Deghal.Cheridi, A.Chaker, A.Loubar

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loss of feedwater accident is one of the frequently sever accidents in steam boiler facilities. It threatens the system structural integrity and generates serious hazards and economic loses. The safety analysis of the thermal installations, based extensively on the numeric simulation. The simulation analysis using realistic computer codes like Relap5/Mod3.2 will help understand steam boiler thermal-hydraulic behavior during normal and abnormal conditions. In this study, we are interested on the evaluation of the radiant steam boiler assessment and response to loss-of-feedwater accident. Pressure, temperature and flow rate profiles are presented in various steam boiler system components. The obtained results demonstrate the importance and capability of the Relap5/Mod3.2 code in the thermal-hydraulic analysis of the steam boiler facilities.

Keywords: Radiant steam boiler, Relap5/Mod3.2 code system, Steady-state simulation, Transient simulation, Loss of feedwateraccident

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Authors: Bujar Ismaili, Bahti Ismajli, Venhar Ismaili, Skender Ramadani

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In Kosovo, the problem with the electricity supply is huge and it does not meet the demands of consumers. Older thermal power plants, which are regarded as big environmental polluters, produce most of the energy. Our experiment is based on the production of electricity using the closed method that does not affect environmental pollution by using waste as fuel that is considered to pollute the environment. The experiment was carried out in the village of Godanc, municipality of Shtime, Kosovo. In the experiment, a production line based on the production of electricity and central heating was designed at the same time. The results are the benefits of electricity as well as the release of temperature for heating with minimal expenses and with the release of 0% gases into the atmosphere. During this experiment, coal, plastic, waste from wood processing, and agricultural wastes were used as raw materials. The method utilized in the experiment allows for the release of gas through pipes and filters during the top-to-bottom combustion of the raw material in the boiler, followed by the method of gas filtration from waste wood processing (sawdust). During this process, the final product, gas, is obtained. This gas passes through the carburetor, enabling the combustion process to put the internal combustion machine and the generator into operation and produce electricity that does not release gases into the atmosphere. The results show that the system provides energy stability without environmental pollution from toxic substances and waste, as well as with low production costs. From the final results, it follows that, in the case of using coal fuel, we have benefited from more electricity and higher temperature release, followed by plastic waste, which also gave good results. The results obtained during these experiments prove that the current problems of lack of electricity and heating can be met at a lower cost and have a clean environment and waste management.

Keywords: Energy, heating, atmosphere, waste management, gasification.

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Authors: Andressa dos Santos Nicolau, João P. da S.C Algusto, Claudio Márcio do N. A. Pereira, Roberto Schirru

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In case of abnormal situations, the nuclear power plant (NPP) operators must follow written procedures to check the condition of the plant and to classify the type of emergency. In this paper, we proposed a Real Time Expert System in order to improve operator’s performance in case of transient or accident with reactor shutdown. The expert system’s knowledge is based on the sequence of events (SoE) of known accident and two emergency procedures of the Brazilian Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) NPP and uses two kinds of knowledge representation: rule and logic trees. The results show that the system was able to classify the response of the automatic protection systems, as well as to evaluate the conditions of the plant, diagnosing the type of occurrence, recovery procedure to be followed, indicating the shutdown root cause, and classifying the emergency level.

Keywords: Emergence procedure, expert system, operator support, PWR nuclear power plant.

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Authors: Rajan Rajabalaya, Li-Qun Tor, Sheba David

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Transdermal delivery of ondansetron hydrochloride (OdHCl) can prevent the problems encountered with oral ondansetron. In previously conducted studies, effect of amount of polyvinyl pyrrolidone, permeation enhancer and casting solvent on the physicochemical properties on OdHCl were investigated. It is feasible to develop ondansetron transdermal patch by using ethyl cellulose and polyvinyl pyrrolidone with dibutyl pthalate as plasticizer, however, the desired flux is not achieved. The primary aim of this study is to use dimethyl succinate (DMS) and propylene glycol that are not incorporated in previous studies to determine their effect on the physicochemical properties of an OdHCl transdermal patch using ethyl cellulose and polyvinyl pyrrolidone. This study also investigates the effect of permeation enhancer (eugenol and phosphatidylcholine) on the release of OdHCl. The results showed that propylene glycol is a more suitable plasticizer compared to DMS in the fabrication of OdHCl transdermal patch using ethyl cellulose and polyvinyl pyrrolidone as polymers. Propylene glycol containing patch has optimum drug content, thickness, moisture content and water absorption, tensile strength, and a better release profile than DMS. Eugenol and phosphatidylcholine can increase release of OdHCl from the patches. From the physicochemical result and permeation profile, a combination of 350mg of ethyl cellulose, 150mg polyvinyl pyrrolidone, 3% of total polymer weight of eugenol, and 40% of total polymer weight of propylene glycol is the most suitable formulation to develop an OdHCl patch. OdHCl release did not increase with increasing the percentage of plasticiser. DMS 4, PG 4, DMS 9, PG 9, DMS 14, and PG 14 gave better release profiles where using 300mg: 0mg, 300mg: 100mg, and 350mg: 150mg of EC: PVP. Thus, 40% of PG or DMS appeared to be the optimum amount of plasticiser when the above combination where EC: PVP was used. It was concluded from the study that a patch formulation containing 350mg EC, 150mg PVP, 40% PG and 3% eugenol is the best transdermal matrix patch compositions for the uniform and continuous release/permeation of OdHCl over an extended period. This patch design can be used for further pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies in suitable animal models.

Keywords: Ondansetron hydrochloride, dimethyl succinate, eugenol.

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

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Authors: J. Suwanprateeb, F. Thammarakcharoen

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Calcium phosphate coating (CaP) has been employed for protein delivery, but the typical direct protein adsorption on the coating led to low incorporation content and fast release of the protein from the coating. By using bovine serum albumin (BSA) as a model protein, rapid biomimetic co-precipitation between calcium phosphate and BSA was employed to control the distribution of BSA within calcium phosphate coating during biomimetic formation on titanium surface for only 6 h at 50oC in an accelerated calcium phosphate solution. As a result, the amount of BSA incorporation and release duration could be increased by using a rapid biomimetic coprecipitation technique. Up to 43 fold increases in the BSA incorporation content and the increase from 6 h to more than 360 h in release duration compared to typical direct adsorption technique were observed depending on the initial BSA concentration used during coprecipitation (1, 10 and 100 μg.ml-1). From x-ray diffraction and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy studies, the coating composition was not altered with the incorporation of BSA by this rapid biomimetic co-precipitation and mainly comprised octacalcium phosphate and hydroxyapatite. However, the microstructure of calcium phosphate crystals changed from straight, plate-like units to curved, plate-like units with increasing BSA content.

Keywords: Biomimetic, Calcium Phosphate Coating, Protein, Titanium.

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Authors: Olga Długosz, Jolanta Pulit-Prociak, Marcin Banach

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The paper presents a process to obtain glutathione-modified titanium oxide nanoparticles. The processes were carried out in a microwave radiation field. The influence of the molar ratio of glutathione to titanium oxide and the effect of the fold of NaOH vs. stoichiometric amount on the size of the formed TiO2 nanoparticles was determined. The physicochemical properties of the obtained products were evaluated using dynamic light scattering (DLS), transmission electron microscope- energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (TEM-EDS), low-temperature nitrogen adsorption method (BET), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) microscopy methods. The size of TiO2 nanoparticles was characterized from 30 nm to 336 nm. The release of titanium ions from the prepared products was evaluated. These studies were carried out using different media in which the powders were incubated for a specific time. These were: water, SBF and Ringer's solution. The release of titanium ions from modified products is weaker compared to unmodified titanium oxide nanoparticles. The reduced release of titanium ions may allow the use of such modified materials as substances in drug delivery systems.

Keywords: titanium dioxide, nanoparticles, drug carrier, glutathione

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Authors: Sabita Rani Sahoo, A.Mishra

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Delamination between layers in composite materials is a major structural failure. The delamination resistance is quantified by the critical strain energy release rate (SERR). The present investigation deals with the strain energy release rate of two woven fabric composites. Materials used are made of two types of glass fiber (360 gsm and 600 gsm) of plain weave and epoxy as matrix. The fracture behavior is studied using the mode I, double cantilever beam test and the mode II, end notched flexure test, in order to determine the energy required for the initiation and growth of an artificial crack. The delamination energy of these two materials is compared in order to study the effect of weave and reinforcement on mechanical properties. The fracture mechanism is also analyzed by means of scanning electron microscopy (SEM). It is observed that the plain weave fabric composite with lesser strand width has higher inter laminar fracture properties compared to the plain weave fabric composite with more strand width.

Keywords: Glass- epoxy composites, Fracture Tests: mode I (DCB) and mode II (ENF), Delamination, Calculation of strain energy release rate, SEM Analysis

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Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, M. Tabatabaeifar, M. Helmis

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Shellac is a natural polyester resin secreted by insects. Pectins are natural, non-toxic and water-soluble polysaccharides extracted from the peels of citrus fruits or the leftovers of apples. Both polymers are allowed for the use in the pharmaceutical industry and as a food additive. SSB Aquagold® is the aqueous solution of shellac and can be used for a coating process as an enteric or controlled drug release polymer. In this study, tablets containing 10 mg methylene blue as a model drug were prepared with a rotary press. Those tablets were coated with mixtures of shellac and one of the pectin different types (i.e. CU 201, CU 501, CU 701 and CU 020) mostly in a 2:1 ratio or with pure shellac in a small scale fluidized bed apparatus. A stable, simple and reproducible three-stage coating process was successfully developed. The drug contents of the coated tablets were determined using UV-VIS spectrophotometer. The characterization of the surface and the film thickness were performed with the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and the light microscopy. Release studies were performed in a dissolution apparatus with a basket. Most of the formulations were enteric coated. The dissolution profiles showed a delayed or sustained release with a lagtime of at least 4 h. Dissolution profiles of coated tablets with pure shellac had a very long lagtime ranging from 13 to 17.9 h and the slopes were quite high. The duration of the lagtime and the slope of the dissolution profiles could be adjusted by adding the proper type of pectin to the shellac formulation and by variation of the coating amount. In order to apply a coating formulation as a colon delivery system, the prepared film should be resistant against gastric fluid for at least 2 h and against intestinal fluid for 4-6 h. The required delay time was gained with most of the shellac-pectin polymer mixtures. The release profiles were fitted with the modified model of the Korsmeyer-Peppas equation and the Hixson-Crowell model. A correlation coefficient (R²)> 0.99 was obtained by Korsmeyer-Peppas equation.

Keywords: Shellac, pectin, coating, fluidized bed, release, colon delivery system, kinetic, SEM, methylene blue.

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Authors: Domenica Tambasco, Riina Bray

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Fibromyalgia is a chronic condition characterized by widespread musculoskeletal pain, fatigue, and reduced function. Management of symptoms include medications, physical treatments and mindfulness therapies. Myofascial Release is a modality that has been successfully applied in various musculoskeletal conditions. However, to the author’s best knowledge, it is not yet recognized as a self-management therapy option in Fibromyalgia. In this study, we investigated whether Self-applied Myofascial Release (SMR) is associated with overall improved function and symptoms in Fibromyalgia. Eligible adult patients with a confirmed diagnosis of Fibromyalgia at Women’s College Hospital were recruited to SMR. Sessions ran for 1 hour once a week for 7 weeks, led by the same two physiotherapists knowledgeable in this physical treatment modality. The main outcome measure was an overall impact score for function and symptoms based on the validated assessment tool for fibromyalgia, the Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQR), measured pre- and post-intervention. Both descriptive and analytical methods were applied and reported. We analyzed results using a paired t-test to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in mean FIQR scores between initial (pre-intervention) and final (post-intervention) scores. A clinically significant difference in FIQR was defined as a reduction in score by 10 or more points. Our pilot study showed that SMR appeared to be a safe and effective intervention for our fibromyalgia participants and the overall impact on function and symptoms occurred in only 7 weeks. Further studies with larger sample sizes comparing SMR to other physical treatment modalities (such as stretching) in an randomized control trial (RCT) are recommended.

Keywords: Fibromyalgia, myofascial release, fibromyalgia impact questionnaire, fibromyalgia assessment status.

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Authors: Shishen Xie, Yingda L. Xie

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially serious infectious disease that remains a health concern. The Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is a blood test to find out if an individual is tuberculous positive or negative. This study applies statistical analysis to the clinical data of interferon-gamma levels of seventy-three subjects who diagnosed pulmonary TB in an anti-tuberculous treatment. Data analysis is performed to determine if there is a significant decline in interferon-gamma levels for the subjects during a period of six months, and to infer if the anti-tuberculous treatment is effective.

Keywords: Data analysis, interferon gamma release assay, statistical methods, tuberculosis infection.

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Authors: H. Achache, Y. Madani, A. Benzerdjeb

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The present study is based on the three-dimensional digital analysis by the finite elements method of the mechanical loading effect on the delamination of unidirectional and multidirectional stratified composites. The aim of this work is the determination of the release energy rate G in mode I and the Von Mises equivalent constraint distribution along the damaged area under the influence of several parameters such as the applied load and the delamination size. The results obtained in this study show that the unidirectional composite laminates have better mechanical resistance one the loading line than the multidirectional composite laminates.

Keywords: Delamination, release energy rate, stratified composite, finite element method and ply.

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Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

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This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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Authors: Takeshi Takeda

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The author conducted post-test analysis with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code for an experiment using the ROSA/LSTF (rig of safety assessment/large-scale test facility) that simulated a 1% cold leg small-break loss-of-coolant accident under the failure of scram in a pressurized water reactor. The LSTF test assumed total failure of high-pressure injection system of emergency core cooling system. In the LSTF test, natural circulation contributed to maintain core cooling effect for a relatively long time until core uncovery occurred. The post-test analysis result confirmed inadequate prediction of the primary coolant distribution. The author created the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) for each component. The author investigated the influences of uncertain parameters determined by the PIRT on the cladding surface temperature at a certain time during core uncovery within the defined uncertain ranges.

Keywords: LSTF, LOCA, scram, RELAP5.

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Authors: Chayarat Tantanasarit, Sandhya Babel

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Green mussels (Perna viridis) can effectively remove  nutrients from seawater through their filtration process. This study  aims to estimate “net” nutrient removal rate by green mussel through  calculation of nutrient uptake and release. Nutrients (carbon, nitrogen  and phosphorus) uptake was calculated based on the mussel filtration  rate. Nutrient release was evaluated from carbon, nitrogen and  phosphorus released as mussel faeces. By subtracting nutrient release  from nutrient uptake, net nutrient removal by green mussel can be  found as 3302, 380 and 124 mg/year/indv. Mass balance model was  employed to simulate nutrient removal in actual green mussel  farming conditions. Mussels farm area, seawater flow rate, and  amount of mussels were considered in the model. Results show that  although larger quantity of green mussel farms lead to higher nutrient  removal rate, the maximum green mussel cultivation should be taken  into consideration as nutrients released through mussel excretion can  strongly affect marine ecosystem.

 

Keywords: Carbon, Excretion, Filtration, Nitrogen, Phosphorus.

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Authors: Thammarak Srimarut, Witthaya Mekhum

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This study analyzed and developed a model for monk’s food bowl production on occupational health safety and environment at work for the encouragement of Rattanakosin local wisdom at Banbart Community. The process of blowpipe welding was necessary to produce the bowl which was very dangerous or 93.59% risk. After the employment of new sitting posture, the work risk was lower 48.41% or moderate risk. When considering in details, it was found that: 1) the traditional sitting posture could create work risk at 88.89% while the new sitting posture could create the work risk at 58.86%. 2) About the environmental pollution, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 61.11% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 40.47%. 3) On accidental risk, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the accident from welding at 94.44% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the accident from welding at 62.54%.

Keywords: Occupational health safety, environment at work, Monk’s food bowl.

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Authors: G. Shruthi, Purohit Shrinivasacharya

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The biggest problem in cloud is securing an outsourcing data. A cloud environment cannot be considered to be trusted. It becomes more challenging when outsourced data sources are managed by multiple outsourcers with different access rights. Several methods have been proposed to protect data confidentiality against the cloud service provider to support fine-grained data access control. We propose a method with combined Cipher Text Policy Attribute-based Encryption (CP-ABE) and Timed-release encryption (TRE) secure method to control medical data storage in public cloud.

Keywords: Attribute, encryption, security, trapdoor.

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Authors: Siham G. Farag

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The main objective of this paper is to provide a new methodology for road safety assessment in Oman through the development of suitable accident prediction models. GLM technique with Poisson or NBR using SAS package was carried out to develop these models. The paper utilized the accidents data of 31 un-signalized T-intersections during three years. Five goodness-of-fit measures were used to assess the overall quality of the developed models. Two types of models were developed separately; the flow-based models including only traffic exposure functions, and the full models containing both exposure functions and other significant geometry and traffic variables. The results show that, traffic exposure functions produced much better fit to the accident data. The most effective geometric variables were major-road mean speed, minor-road 85th percentile speed, major-road lane width, distance to the nearest junction, and right-turn curb radius. The developed models can be used for intersection treatment or upgrading and specify the appropriate design parameters of T-intersections. Finally, the models presented in this thesis reflect the intersection conditions in Oman and could represent the typical conditions in several countries in the middle east area, especially gulf countries.

Keywords: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), T-intersections, Oman.

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Authors: Lina Galinskaitė, Gytautas Ignatavičius

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Animal vehicle collisions (AVCs) affect human safety, cause property damage and wildlife welfare. The number of AVCs are increasing and creating serious implications for the animal conservation and management. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and other large ungulates (moose, wild boar, red deer) are the most frequently collided ungulate with vehicles in Europe. Therefore, we analyzed temporal patterns of roe deer vehicle collisions (RDVC) occurring in Lithuania. Using a comprehensive dataset, consisting of 15,891 data points, we examined the influence of different time units (i.e. time of the day, day of week, month, and season) on RDVC. We identified accident periods within the analyzed time units. Highest frequencies of RDVC occurred on Fridays. Highest frequencies of roe deer-vehicle accidents occurred in May, November and December. Regarding diurnal patterns, most of RDVC occur after sunset and before sunset (during dark hours). Since vehicle collisions with animals showed temporal variation, these should be taken into consideration in developing statistical models of spatial AVC patterns, and also in planning strategies to reduce accident risk.

Keywords: Animal vehicle collision, diurnal patterns, road safety, roe deer, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: Sanga Monthatipkul, Pio Iovenitti, Igor Sbarski

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Bicycle usage for exercise, recreation, and commuting to work in Australia shows that pedal cycling is the fourth most popular activity with 10.6% increase in participants between 2001 and 2007. As with other means of transport, accident and injury becomes common although mandatory bicycle helmet wearing has been introduced. The research aims to develop a face surrogate made of sandwich of rigid foam and rubber sheets to represent human facial bone under blunt impact. The facial surrogate will serve as an important test device for further development of facial-impact protection for cyclist. A test procedure was developed to simulate the energy of impact and record data to evaluate the effect of impact on facial bones. Drop tests were performed to establish a suitable combination of materials. It was found that the sandwich structure of rigid extruded-polystyrene foam (density of 40 kg/m3 with a pattern of 6-mm-holes), Neoprene rubber sponge, and Abrasaflex rubber backing, had impact characteristics comparable to that of human facial bone. In particular, the foam thickness of 30 mm and 25 mm was found suitable to represent human zygoma (cheekbone) and maxilla (upper-jaw bone), respectively.

Keywords: Facial impact protection, face surrogate, cyclist, accident prevention

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Authors: Xingyu Pan, Laure Tougne

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For recognizing coins, the graved release date is important information to identify precisely its monetary type. However, reading characters in coins meets much more obstacles than traditional character recognition tasks in the other fields, such as reading scanned documents or license plates. To address this challenging issue in a numismatic context, we propose a training-free approach dedicated to detection and recognition of the release date of the coin. In the first step, the date zone is detected by comparing histogram features; in the second step, a topology-based algorithm is introduced to recognize coin numbers with various font types represented by binary gradient map. Our method obtained a recognition rate of 92% on synthetic data and of 44% on real noised data.

Keywords: Coin, detection, character recognition, topology.

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Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin

Abstract:

The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermohydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analyzed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favoring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.

Keywords: Corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor (SFR).

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Authors: Ulugbek Azimov, Eiji Tomita, Nobuyuki Kawahara, Sharul Sham Dol

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate the combustion in a pilot-ignited supercharged dual-fuel engine, fueled with different types of gaseous fuels under various equivalence ratios. It is found that if certain operating conditions are maintained, conventional dual-fuel engine combustion mode can be transformed to the combustion mode with the two-stage heat release. This mode of combustion was called the PREMIER (PREmixed Mixture Ignition in the End-gas Region) combustion. During PREMIER combustion, initially, the combustion progresses as the premixed flame propagation and then, due to the mixture autoignition in the end-gas region, ahead of the propagating flame front, the transition occurs with the rapid increase in the heat release rate.

Keywords: Combustion, dual-fuel engine, end-gas autoignition, PREMIER.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: M. Nikbakht, N. Choupani

Abstract:

In this paper delamination phenomenon in Carbon-Epoxy laminated composite material is investigated numerically. Arcan apparatus and specimen is modeled in ABAQUS finite element software for different loading conditions and crack geometries. The influence of variation of crack geometry on interlaminar fracture stress intensity factor and energy release rate for various mixed mode ratios and pure mode I and II was studied. Also, correction factors for this specimen for different crack length ratios were calculated. The finite element results indicate that for loading angles close to pure mode-II loading, a high ratio of mode-II to mode-I fracture is dominant and there is an opposite trend for loading angles close to pure mode-I loading. It confirms that by varying the loading angle of Arcan specimen pure mode-I, pure mode-II and a wide range of mixed-mode loading conditions can be created and tested. Also, numerical results confirm that the increase of the mode- II loading contribution leads to an increase of fracture resistance in the CF/PEI composite (i.e., a reduction in the total strain energy release rate) and the increase of the crack length leads to a reduction of interlaminar fracture resistance in the CF/PEI composite (i.e., an increase in the total interlaminar strain energy release rate).

Keywords: Fracture Mechanics, Mixed Mode, Arcan Specimen, Finite Element.

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Authors: Andrew Cummings, Rhianne Boag, Sarah Bryson, Gordon Turner

Abstract:

Packages designed for transport of radioactive material must satisfy rigorous safety regulations specified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Higher Activity Waste (HAW) transport packages have to maintain containment of their contents during normal and accident conditions of transport (NCT and ACT). To ensure containment criteria is satisfied these packages are required to be leak-tight in all transport conditions to meet allowable activity release rates. Package design safety reports are the safety cases that provide the claims, evidence and arguments to demonstrate that packages meet the regulations and once approved by the competent authority (in the UK this is the Office for Nuclear Regulation) a licence to transport radioactive material is issued for the package(s). The standard approach to demonstrating containment in the RWM transport safety case is set out in BS EN ISO 12807. In this document a method for measuring a leak rate from the package is explained by way of a small interspace test volume situated between two O-ring seals on the underside of the package lid. The interspace volume is pressurised and a pressure drop measured. A small interspace test volume makes the method more sensitive enabling the measurement of smaller leak rates. By ascertaining the activity of the contents, identifying a releasable fraction of material and by treating that fraction of material as a gas, allowable leak rates for NCT and ACT are calculated. The adherence to basic safety principles in ISO12807 is very pessimistic and current practice in the demonstration of transport safety, which is accepted by the UK regulator. It is UK government policy that management of HAW will be through geological disposal. It is proposed that the intermediate level waste be transported to the geological disposal facility (GDF) in large cuboid packages. This poses a challenge for containment demonstration because such packages will have long seals and therefore large interspace test volumes. There is also uncertainty on the releasable fraction of material within the package ullage space. This is because the waste may be in many different forms which makes it difficult to define the fraction of material released by the waste package. Additionally because of the large interspace test volume, measuring the calculated leak rates may not be achievable. For this reason a justification for a lower releasable fraction of material is sought. This paper considers the use of aerosol processes to reduce the releasable fraction for both NCT and ACT. It reviews the basic coagulation and removal processes and applies the dynamic aerosol balance equation. The proposed solution includes only the most well understood physical processes namely; Brownian coagulation and gravitational settling. Other processes have been eliminated either on the basis that they would serve to reduce the release to the environment further (pessimistically in keeping with the essence of nuclear transport safety cases) or that they are not credible in the conditions of transport considered.

Keywords: Aerosol processes, Brownian coagulation, gravitational settling, transport regulations.

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