Search results for: compound Rayleigh failure time distribution

Authors: Abdullah Y. Al-Hossain

Abstract:

This paper considers inference under progressive type II censoring with a compound Rayleigh failure time distribution. The maximum likelihood (ML), and Bayes methods are used for estimating the unknown parameters as well as some lifetime parameters, namely reliability and hazard functions. We obtained Bayes estimators using the conjugate priors for two shape and scale parameters. When the two parameters are unknown, the closed-form expressions of the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained. We use Lindley.s approximation to compute the Bayes estimates. Another Bayes estimator has been obtained based on continuous-discrete joint prior for the unknown parameters. An example with the real data is discussed to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, we made comparisons between these estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators using a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Keywords: Progressive type II censoring, compound Rayleigh failure time distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes estimation, Lindley's approximation method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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Authors: Sheng-Shu Cheng, Fong-Jung Yu

Abstract:

C-control chart assumes that process nonconformities follow a Poisson distribution. In actuality, however, this Poisson distribution does not always occur. A process control for semiconductor based on a Poisson distribution always underestimates the true average amount of nonconformities and the process variance. Quality is described more accurately if a compound Poisson process is used for process control at this time. A cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart is much better than a C control chart when a small shift will be detected. This study calculates one-sided CUSUM ARLs using a Markov chain approach to construct a CUSUM control chart with an underlying Poisson-Gamma compound distribution for the failure mechanism. Moreover, an actual data set from a wafer plant is used to demonstrate the operation of the proposed model. The results show that a CUSUM control chart realizes significantly better performance than EWMA.

Keywords: Nonconformities, Compound Poisson distribution, CUSUM control chart.

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Authors: Amir T. Payandeh Najafabadi

Abstract:

This article considers the problem of evaluating infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability under a given compound Poisson surplus process by approximating the claim size distribution by a finite mixture exponential, say Hyperexponential, distribution. It restates the infinite-time (or finite-time) ruin probability as a solvable ordinary differential equation (or a partial differential equation). Application of our findings has been given through a simulation study.

Keywords: Ruin probability, compound Poisson processes, mixture exponential (hyperexponential) distribution, heavy-tailed distributions.

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: Exponentiated, Inversion Method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Transmutation Map.

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Authors: Nur Irmawati, H.A. Mohammed

Abstract:

In the present study, mixed convection in a horizontal rectangular duct using Al2O3 is numerically investigated. The effects of different Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and radiation on flow and heat transfer characteristics are studied in detail. This study covers Rayleigh number in the range of 2 × 10^6 ≤ Ra ≤ 2 × 10^7 and Reynolds number in the range of 100 ≤ Re ≤ 1100. Results reveal that the Nusselt number increases as Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers increase. It is also found that the dimensionless temperature distribution increases as Rayleigh number increases.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, Mixed convection, Horizontal rectangular duct, Nanofluids.

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Authors: Huai-Feng Wang, Meng-Lin Lou, Ru-Lin Zhang

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One good analysis method in seismic response analysis is direct time integration, which widely adopts Rayleigh damping. An approach is presented for selection of Rayleigh damping coefficients to be used in seismic analyses to produce a response that is consistent with Modal damping response. In the presented approach, the expression of the error of peak response, acquired through complete quadratic combination method, and Rayleigh damping coefficients was set up and then the coefficients were produced by minimizing the error. Two finite element modes of soil layers, excited by 28 seismic waves, were used to demonstrate the feasibility and validity.

Keywords: Rayleigh damping, modal damping, damping coefficients, seismic response analysis.

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Authors: Y. Harold Robinson, M. Rajaram

Abstract:

The Trustworthy link failure recovery algorithm is introduced in this paper, to provide the forwarding continuity even with compound link failures. The ephemeral failures are common in IP networks and it also has some proposals based on local rerouting. To ensure forwarding continuity, we are introducing the compound link failure recovery algorithm, even with compound link failures. For forwarding the information, each packet carries a blacklist, which is a min set of failed links encountered along its path, and the next hop is chosen by excluding the blacklisted links. Our proposed method describes how it can be applied to ensure forwarding to all reachable destinations in case of any two or more link or node failures in the network. After simulating with NS2 contains lot of samples proved that the proposed protocol achieves exceptional concert even under elevated node mobility using Trustworthy link Failure Recovery Algorithm.

Keywords: Wireless Sensor Networks, Predistribution Scheme, Cryptographic Techniques.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

Abstract:

Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

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Authors: Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Saeed Afshar

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This paper presents the results of a preventive maintenance application-based study and modeling of failure rates in breakers of electrical distribution systems. This is a critical issue in the reliability assessment of a system. In the analysis conducted in this paper, the impacts of failure rate variations caused by a preventive maintenance are examined. This is considered as a part of a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) application program. A number of load point reliability indices is derived using the mathematical model of the failure rate, which is established using the observed data in a distribution system.

Keywords: Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM), failure rate, preventive maintenance (PM), Distribution System Reliability.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

Abstract:

This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: V. V. Singh, Yusuf Ibrahim Gwanda, Rajesh Prasad

Abstract:

In this paper, we focus on the reliability and performance analysis of Computer Centre (CC) at Yobe State University, Damaturu, Nigeria. The CC consists of three servers: one database mail server, one redundant and one for sharing with the client computers in the CC (called as a local server). Observing the different possibilities of the functioning of the CC, the analysis has been done to evaluate the various popular measures of reliability such as availability, reliability, mean time to failure (MTTF), profit analysis due to the operation of the system. The system can ultimately fail due to the failure of router, redundant server before repairing the mail server and switch failure. The system can also partially fail when a local server fails. The failed devices have restored according to Least Recently Used (LRU) techniques. The system can also fail entirely due to a cooling failure of the server, electricity failure or some natural calamity like earthquake, fire tsunami, etc. All the failure rates are assumed to be constant and follow exponential time distribution, while the repair follows two types of distributions: i.e. general and Gumbel-Hougaard family copula distribution.

Keywords: Reliability, availability Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, MTTF, internet data center.

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Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, cause of failure, intensity, linear degradation path, masked data, reliability function.

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Authors: O. Rahli, N. Mimouni, R. Bennacer, K. Bouhadef

Abstract:

This numerical study investigates the travelling wave’s appearance and the behavior of Poiseuille-Rayleigh-Benard (PRB) flow induced in 3D thermosolutale mixed convection (TSMC) in horizontal rectangular channels. The governing equations are discretized by using a control volume method with third order Quick scheme in approximating the advection terms. Simpler algorithm is used to handle coupling between the momentum and continuity equations. To avoid the excessively high computer time, full approximation storage (FAS) with full multigrid (FMG) method is used to solve the problem. For a broad range of dimensionless controlling parameters, the contribution of this work is to analyzing the flow regimes of the steady longitudinal thermoconvective rolls (noted R//) for both thermal and mass transfer (TSMC). The transition from the opposed volume forces to cooperating ones, considerably affects the birth and the development of the longitudinal rolls. The heat and mass transfers distribution are also examined.

Keywords: Heat and mass transfer, mixed convection, Poiseuille-Rayleigh-Benard flow, rectangular duct.

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Authors: P. Varzakas

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of estimating the optimal radio capacity of a single-cell spread spectrum (SS) multiple-inputmultiple- output (MIMO) system operating in a Rayleigh fading environment is examined. The optimisation between the radio capacity and the theoretically achievable average channel capacity (in the sense of information theory) per user of a MIMO single-cell SS system operating in a Rayleigh fading environment is presented. Then, the spectral efficiency is estimated in terms of the achievable average channel capacity per user, during the operation over a broadcast time-varying link, and leads to a simple novel-closed form expression for the optimal radio capacity value based on the maximization of the achieved spectral efficiency. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the proposed analysis.

Keywords: Channel capacity, MIMO systems, Radio capacity, Rayleigh fading, Spectral efficiency.

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Authors: Yan Ma, ShunBao Li

Abstract:

A new approach is adopted in this paper based on Turk and Pentland-s eigenface method. It was found that the probability density function of the distance between the projection vector of the input face image and the average projection vector of the subject in the face database, follows Rayleigh distribution. In order to decrease the false acceptance rate and increase the recognition rate, the input face image has been recognized using two thresholds including the acceptance threshold and the rejection threshold. We also find out that the value of two thresholds will be close to each other as number of trials increases. During the training, in order to reduce the number of trials, the projection vectors for each subject has been averaged. The recognition experiments using the proposed algorithm show that the recognition rate achieves to 92.875% whilst the average number of judgment is only 2.56 times.

Keywords: Eigenface, Face Recognition, Threshold, Rayleigh Distribution, Feature Extraction

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Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

Abstract:

The article is concerned with analysis of failure rate (shape parameter) under the Topp Leone distribution using a Bayesian framework. Different loss functions and a couple of noninformative priors have been assumed for posterior estimation. The posterior predictive distributions have also been derived. A simulation study has been carried to compare the performance of different estimators. A real life example has been used to illustrate the applicability of the results obtained. The findings of the study suggest  that the precautionary loss function based on Jeffreys prior and singly type II censored samples can effectively be employed to obtain the Bayes estimate of the failure rate under Topp Leone distribution.

Keywords: loss functions, type II censoring, posterior distribution, Bayes estimators.

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Authors: M. M. Isa, R. Abd-Rahman, H. H. Goh

Abstract:

A compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) is a wellknown non-imaging concentrator that will concentrate the solar radiation onto receiver (PV cell). One of disadvantage of CPC is has tall and narrow height compared to its diameter entry aperture area. Therefore, for economic reason, a truncation had been done by removed from the top of the full height CPC. This also will lead to the decreases of concentration ratio but it will be negligible. In this paper, the flux distribution of untruncated and truncated 2-D hollow compound parabolic trough concentrator (hCPTC) design is presented. The untruncated design has initial height H=193.4mm with concentration ratio C_(2-D)=4. This paper presents the optical simulation of compound parabolic trough concentrator using raytracing software TracePro. Results showed that, after the truncation, the height of CPC reduced 45% from initial height with the geometrical concentration ratio only decrease 10%. Thus, the cost of reflector and material dielectric usage can be saved especially at manufacturing site.

Keywords: Compound parabolic trough concentrator, optical modelling, ray-tracing analysis.

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Authors: Ryad Zemouri, Paul Ciprian Patic

Abstract:

An adaptive software reliability prediction model using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results show that our proposed approach is robust across different software projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability compared to existing neural network model for failure time prediction.

Keywords: Neural network, Prediction error, Recurrent RadialBasis Function Network, Reliability prediction.

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Authors: Stephen V. Crowder, Jonathan W. Lane

Abstract:

With short production development times, there is an increased need to demonstrate product reliability relatively quickly with minimal testing. In such cases there may be few if any observed failures. Thus it may be difficult to assess reliability using the traditional reliability test plans that measure only time (or cycles) to failure. For many components, degradation measures will contain important information about performance and reliability. These measures can be used to design a minimal test plan, in terms of number of units placed on test and duration of the test, necessary to demonstrate a reliability goal. In this work we present a case study involving an electronic component subject to degradation. The data, consisting of 42 degradation paths of cycles to failure, are first used to estimate a reliability function. Bootstrapping techniques are then used to perform power studies and develop a minimal reliability test plan for future production of this component. 

Keywords: Degradation Measure, Time to Failure Distribution, Bootstrap.

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Authors: M. Bouguerra, I. Habi

Abstract:

The continuity in the electric supply of the electric installations is becoming one of the main requirements of the electric supply network (generation, transmission, and distribution of the electric energy). The achievement of this requirement depends from one side on the structure of the electric network and on the other side on the avaibility of the reserve source provided to maintain the supply in case of failure of the principal one. The avaibility of supply does not only depends on the reliability parameters of the both sources (principal and reserve) but it also depends on the reliability of the circuit breaker which plays the role of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure of the principal one. In addition, the principal source being under operation, its control can be ideal and sure, however, for the reserve source being in stop, a preventive maintenances which proceed on time intervals (periodicity) and for well defined lengths of time are envisaged, so that this source will always available in case of the principal source failure. The choice of the periodicity of preventive maintenance of the source of reserve influences directly the reliability of the electric feeder system In this work and on the basis of the semi- markovian's processes, the influence of the time of interlocking the reserve source upon the reliability of an industrial electric network is studied and is given the optimal time of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure the principal one, also the influence of the periodicity of the preventive maintenance of the source of reserve is studied and is given the optimal periodicity.

Keywords: Semi-Markovians processes, reliability, optimization, industrial electric network.

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Authors: P. G. Siddheshwar, B. R. Revathi

Abstract:

The effect of time-periodic oscillations of the Rayleigh- Benard system on the heat transport in dielectric liquids is investigated by weakly nonlinear analysis. We focus on stationary convection using the slow time scale and arrive at the real Ginzburg- Landau equation. Classical fourth order Runge-kutta method is used to solve the Ginzburg-Landau equation which gives the amplitude of convection and this helps in quantifying the heat transfer in dielectric liquids in terms of the Nusselt number. The effect of electrical Rayleigh number and the amplitude of modulation on heat transport is studied.

Keywords: Dielectric liquid, Nusselt number, amplitude equation.

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Authors: S. Jani, M. Mahmoodi, M. Amini

Abstract:

Magnetohydrodynamic free convection fluid flow and heat transfer in a square cavity filled with an electric conductive fluid with Prandtl number of 0.7 has been investigated numerically. The horizontal bottom wall of the cavity was kept at Th while the side and the top walls of the cavity were maintained at a constant temperature Tc with Th>Tc. The governing equations written in terms of the primitive variables were solved numerically using the finite volume method while the SIMPLER algorithm was used to couple the velocity and pressure fields. Using the developed code, a parametric study was performed, and the effects of the Rayleigh number and the Hartman number on the fluid flow and heat transfer inside the cavity were investigated. The obtained results showed that temperature distribution and flow pattern inside the cavity depended on both strength of the magnetic field and Rayleigh number. For all cases two counter rotating eddies were formed inside the cavity. The magnetic field decreased the intensity of free convection and flow velocity. Also it was found that for higher Rayleigh numbers a relatively stronger magnetic field was needed to decrease the heat transfer through free convection.

Keywords: Free Convection, Magnetic Field, Square Cavity, Numerical Simulation.

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Authors: Sung Kyu Kim, Yong Soo Kim

Abstract:

Safety instrumented systems (SISs) are becoming increasingly complex and the proportion of programmable electronic parts is growing. The IEC 61508 global standard was established to ensure the functional safety of SISs, but it was expressed in highly macroscopic terms. This study introduces an evaluation process for hardware safety integrity levels through failure modes, effects, and diagnostic analysis (FMEDA).FMEDA is widely used to evaluate safety levels, and it provides the information on failure rates and failure mode distributions necessary to calculate a diagnostic coverage factor for a given component. In our evaluation process, the components of the SIS subsystem are first defined in terms of failure modes and effects. Then, the failure rate and failure mechanism distribution are assigned to each component. The safety mode and detectability of each failure mode are determined for each component. Finally, the hardware safety integrity level is evaluated based on the calculated results.

Keywords: Safety instrumented system; Safety integrity level; Failure modes, effects, and diagnostic analysis; IEC 61508.

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Authors: J.C. Umavathi

Abstract:

The linear stability of nanofluid convection in a horizontal porous layer is examined theoretically when the walls of the porous layer are subjected to time-periodic temperature modulation. The model used for the nanofluid incorporates the effects of Brownian motion and thermopherosis, while the Darcy model is used for the porous medium. The analysis revels that for a typical nanofluid (with large Lewis number) the prime effect of the nanofluids is via a buoyancy effect coupled with the conservation of nanoparticles. The contribution of nanoparticles to the thermal energy equation being a second-order effect. It is found that the critical thermal Rayleigh number can be found reduced or decreased by a substantial amount, depending on whether the basic nanoparticle distribution is top-heavy or bottom-heavy. Oscillatory instability is possible in the case of a bottom-heavy nanoparticle distribution, phase angle and frequency of modulation.

Keywords: Brownian motion and thermophoresis, Porous medium, Nanofluid, Natural convection, Thermal modulation.

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Authors: Rimmy Yadav, Avtar Singh

Abstract:

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a promising modern approach to the unused combinatorial optimization. Here ACO is applied to finding the shortest during communication link failure. In this paper, the performances of the prim’s and ACO algorithm are made. By comparing the time complexity and program execution time as set of parameters, we demonstrate the pleasant performance of ACO in finding excellent solution to finding shortest path during communication link failure.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, link failure, prim’s algorithm.

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Authors: Sattar Al-Jabair, Laith J. Habeeb

Abstract:

In this work, the natural convection in a concentric annulus between a cold outer inclined square enclosure and heated inner circular cylinder is simulated for two-dimensional steady state. The Boussinesq approximation was applied to model the buoyancy-driven effect and the governing equations were solved using the time marching approach staggered by body fitted coordinates. The coordinate transformation from the physical domain to the computational domain is set up by an analytical expression. Numerical results for Rayleigh numbers 103 , 104 , 105 and 106, aspect ratios 1.5 , 3.0 and 4.5 for seven different inclination angles for the outer square enclosure 0o , -30o , -45o , -60o , -90o , -135o , -180o are presented as well. The computed flow and temperature fields were demonstrated in the form of streamlines, isotherms and Nusselt numbers variation. It is found that both the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number are critical to the patterns of flow and thermal fields. At all Rayleigh numbers angle of inclination has nominal effect on heat transfer.

Keywords: natural convection, concentric annulus, square inclined enclosure

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