Search results for: Population modeling.

Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

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Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: Customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, retailer.

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Authors: Zuhrotun Ulya, Muchammad Syamsulhadi, Debree Septiawan

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Patients with bipolar disorder are three times more likely to suffer cardiovascular disorders than the general population, which will influence their level of morbidity and rate of mortality. Bipolar disorder also affects the pulmonary system. The choice of long term-monotherapy and other combinative therapies have clinical impacts on patients. This study investigates the case of a woman who has been suffering from bipolar disorder for 16 years, and who has a history of Steven Johnson Syndrome. At present she is suffering also from cardiovascular and pulmonary disorder. An analysis of the results of this study suggests that there is a relationship between cardiovascular disorder, drug therapies, Steven Johnson Syndrome and mood stabilizer obtained from the PubMed, Cochrane, Medline, and ProQuest (publications between 2005 and 2015). Combination therapy with mood stabilizer is recommended for patients who do not have side effect histories from these drugs. The replacement drugs and combinations may be applied, especially for those with bipolar disorders, and the combination between atypical antipsychotic groups and mood stabilizers is often made. Clinicians, however, should be careful with the patients’ physical and metabolic changes, especially those who have experienced long-term therapy and who showed a history of Steven Johnson Syndrome (for which clinicians probably prescribed one type of medicine).

Keywords: Cardio-pulmonary disease, bipolar disorder, Steven Johnson Syndrome, therapy.

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Authors: R. Bremananth, A. Chitra

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Cryptography provides the secure manner of information transmission over the insecure channel. It authenticates messages based on the key but not on the user. It requires a lengthy key to encrypt and decrypt the sending and receiving the messages, respectively. But these keys can be guessed or cracked. Moreover, Maintaining and sharing lengthy, random keys in enciphering and deciphering process is the critical problem in the cryptography system. A new approach is described for generating a crypto key, which is acquired from a person-s iris pattern. In the biometric field, template created by the biometric algorithm can only be authenticated with the same person. Among the biometric templates, iris features can efficiently be distinguished with individuals and produces less false positives in the larger population. This type of iris code distribution provides merely less intra-class variability that aids the cryptosystem to confidently decrypt messages with an exact matching of iris pattern. In this proposed approach, the iris features are extracted using multi resolution wavelets. It produces 135-bit iris codes from each subject and is used for encrypting/decrypting the messages. The autocorrelators are used to recall original messages from the partially corrupted data produced by the decryption process. It intends to resolve the repudiation and key management problems. Results were analyzed in both conventional iris cryptography system (CIC) and non-repudiation iris cryptography system (NRIC). It shows that this new approach provides considerably high authentication in enciphering and deciphering processes.

Keywords: Autocorrelators, biometrics cryptography, irispatterns, wavelets.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi, Ethan S. Cantor, William T. Riddell, Jess W. Everett

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The New Jersey Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs (NJ DMAVA) operates over 50 facilities throughout the state of New Jersey, US. NJ DMAVA is under a mandate to move toward decarbonization, which will eventually include eliminating the use of natural gas and other fossil fuels for heating. At the same time, the organization requires increased resiliency regarding electric grid disruption. These competing goals necessitate adopting the use of on-site renewables such as photovoltaic and geothermal power, as well as implementing power control strategies through microgrids. Planning for these changes requires a detailed understanding of current and future electricity use on yearly, monthly, and shorter time scales, as well as a breakdown of consumption by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. This paper discusses case studies of two buildings that were simulated using the QUick Energy Simulation Tool (eQUEST). Both buildings use electricity from the grid and photovoltaics. One building also uses natural gas. While electricity use data are available in hourly intervals and natural gas data are available in monthly intervals, the simulations were developed using monthly and yearly totals. This approach was chosen to reflect the information available for most NJ DMAVA facilities. Once completed, simulation results are compared to metrics recommended by several organizations to validate energy use simulations. In addition to yearly and monthly totals, the simulated peak demands are compared to actual monthly peak demand values. The simulations resulted in monthly peak demand values that were within 30% of the measured values. These benchmarks will help to assess future energy planning efforts for NJ DMAVA.

Keywords: Building Energy Modeling, eQUEST, peak demand, smart meters.

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Authors: P. Thepnarintra

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Frozen shrimp industry plays an important role in the development of production industry of the country. There has been a continuing development to response the increasing demand; however, there have been some problems in running the enterprises. The purposes of this study are to: 1) investigate problems related to basic factors in operating frozen shrimp industry based on the entrepreneurs’ points of view. The enterprises involved in this study were small and medium industry receiving Thai Frozen Foods Association. 2) Compare the problems of the frozen shrimp industry according to their sizes of operation in 3 provinces of the central region Thailand. Population in this study consisted of 148 managers from 148 frozen shrimp enterprises Thai Frozen Foods Association which 77 were small size and 71 were medium size. The data were analyzed to find percentage, arithmetic mean, standard deviation, and independent sample T-test with the significant hypothesis at .05. The results revealed that the problems of the frozen shrimp industries of both size were in high level. The needs for government supporting were in high level. The comparison of the problems and the basic factors between the small and medium size enterprises showed no statistically significant level. The problems that they mentioned included raw materials, labors, production, marketing, and the need for academic supporting from the government sector.

Keywords: Frozen shrimp industry, problems, related to the enterprise, operation.

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Authors: D. O. Omondi, M. K. Walingo, G. M. Mbagaya

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Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.

Keywords: Theory, intention, predictors, mixed methods design.

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Authors: A. Golshani, M. Gharizade Varnusefaderani, S. Majidian

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Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

Keywords: NATM, surface displacement history, soil tests, monitoring data, numerical back-analysis, geotechnical parameters.

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

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Optimization is often a critical issue for most system design problems. Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems often require highly computationally expensive function evaluations and hence are practically prohibitive. The Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model presented in our earlier work [14] reduced computation time by controlled use of meta-models to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the meta-model are generated from a single uniform model. Situations like model formation involving variable input dimensions and noisy data certainly can not be covered by this assumption. In this paper we present an enhanced version of DAFHEA that incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the SVM approximator. DAFHEA-II (the enhanced version of the DAFHEA framework) also overcomes the high computational expense involved with additional clustering requirements of the original DAFHEA framework. The proposed framework has been tested on several benchmark functions and the empirical results illustrate the advantages of the proposed technique.

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Fitness function, Optimization, Meta-model, Stochastic method.

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Authors: Suraiya Jabin, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

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This research presents a system for post processing of data that takes mined flat rules as input and discovers crisp as well as fuzzy hierarchical structures using Learning Classifier System approach. Learning Classifier System (LCS) is basically a machine learning technique that combines evolutionary computing, reinforcement learning, supervised or unsupervised learning and heuristics to produce adaptive systems. A LCS learns by interacting with an environment from which it receives feedback in the form of numerical reward. Learning is achieved by trying to maximize the amount of reward received. Crisp description for a concept usually cannot represent human knowledge completely and practically. In the proposed Learning Classifier System initial population is constructed as a random collection of HPR–trees (related production rules) and crisp / fuzzy hierarchies are evolved. A fuzzy subsumption relation is suggested for the proposed system and based on Subsumption Matrix (SM), a suitable fitness function is proposed. Suitable genetic operators are proposed for the chosen chromosome representation method. For implementing reinforcement a suitable reward and punishment scheme is also proposed. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed system.

Keywords: Hierarchical Production Rule, Data Mining, Learning Classifier System, Fuzzy Subsumption Relation, Subsumption matrix, Reinforcement Learning.

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: Earnings management, generalized regression neural networks, linear regression, multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange.

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Authors: Mohamed Ammar Abbassi, Kamel Guedri, Mohamed Naceur Borjini, Kamel Halouani, Belkacem Zeghmati

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The radiative heat transfer problem is investigated numerically for 2D complex geometry biomass pyrolysis reactor composed of two pyrolysis chambers and a heat recuperator. The fumes are a mixture of carbon dioxide and water vapor charged with absorbing and scattering particles and soot. In order to increase gases residence time and heat transfer, the heat recuperator is provided with many inclined, vertical, horizontal, diffuse and grey baffles of finite thickness and has a complex geometry. The Finite Volume Method (FVM) is applied to study radiative heat transfer. The blocked-off region procedure is used to treat the geometrical irregularities. Eight cases are considered in order to demonstrate the effect of adding baffles on the walls of the heat recuperator and on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms then choose the best case giving the maximum heat flux transferred to the biomass in the pyrolysis chambers. Ray effect due to the presence of baffles is studied and demonstrated to have a crucial effect on radiative heat flux on the walls of the pyrolysis rooms. Shadow effect caused by the presence of the baffles is also studied. The non grey radiative heat transfer is studied for the real existent configuration. The Weighted Sum of The Grey Gases (WSGG) Model of Kim and Song is used as non grey model. The effect of soot volumetric fraction on the non grey radiative heat flux is investigated and discussed.

Keywords: Baffles, Blocked-off region procedure, FVM, Heat recuperation, Radiative heat transfer, Shadow effect.

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Authors: A. Megalingam, M.M.Mayuram

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Evaluation of contact pressure, surface and subsurface contact stresses are essential to know the functional response of surface coatings and the contact behavior mainly depends on surface roughness, material property, thickness of layer and the manner of loading. Contact parameter evaluation of real rough surface contacts mostly relies on statistical single asperity contact approaches. In this work, a three dimensional layered solid rough surface in contact with a rigid flat is modeled and analyzed using finite element method. The rough surface of layered solid is generated by FFT approach. The generated rough surface is exported to a finite element method based ANSYS package through which the bottom up solid modeling is employed to create a deformable solid model with a layered solid rough surface on top. The discretization and contact analysis are carried by using the same ANSYS package. The elastic, elastoplastic and plastic deformations are continuous in the present finite element method unlike many other contact models. The Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer is varied in the present work to observe the contact parameters effect while keeping the surface roughness and substrate material properties as constant. The contacting asperities attain elastic, elastoplastic and plastic states with their continuity and asperity interaction phenomena is inherently included. The resultant contact parameters show that neighboring asperity interaction and the Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer influence the bulk deformation consequently affect the interface strength.

Keywords: Asperity interaction, finite element method, rough surface contact, single layered solid

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Authors: Murat Öztok, Nesrin Özdener

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The aim of this study is to determine the basic information and communication technology (ICT) skills that may be needed by students studying in the 8th grade of the primary education in their cooperative project works implemented via the Internet. Within the scope of the study, the curriculum used for European Computer Driving License (ECDL) and the curriculum used in Turkey are also compared in terms of the ability to use ICT, which is aimed to be provided to the students. The research population of the study, during which the pre test – post test control group experimental model was used, consisted of 40 students from three different schools. In the first stage of the study, the skills that might be needed by students for their cooperative project works implemented via the Internet were determined through examination of the completed Comenious, e – twinning and WorldLinks projects. In the second stage of the study, the curriculums of the Turkish Ministry of National Education (MEB) and ECDL were evaluated by seven different teachers in line with these skills. Also in this study the ECDL and MEB curriculums were compared in terms of capability to provide the skills to implement cooperative projects via the Internet. In line with the findings of the study, the skills that might be needed by students to implement cooperative projects via the Internet were outlined, and existence of a significant difference was established in favor of the ECDL curriculum upon comparison of both curriculums in accordance with this outline (U = 50,500; p <0,05). The findings of the study also suggested that the students had considerable deficiencies in implementation of cooperative projects via the Internet without the ICT infrastructure.

Keywords: Collaboration Projects, Comenius, Curriculum, ICT.

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Authors: Anna Grichting, Sara Al Sada, Angelica Caccam, Urshi Khan

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Qatar, a Gulf country highly dependent on its oil and gas revenues – is looking to innovate, diversify, and ultimately reach its aim of creating a knowledge economy to prepare for its post-oil era. One area that the country is investing in is Contemporary Art, and world renowned artists such as Damien Hirst and Richard Serra – have been commissioned to design site-specific art for the public spaces of the city of Doha as well as in more remote desert locations. This research discusses the changing presence, role and context of public art in Doha, both from a historical and cultural overview, and the different forms and media as well as the typologies of urban and public spaces in which the art is installed. It examines the process of implementing site-specific artworks, looking at questions of scale, history, social meaning and formal aesthetics. The methodologies combine theoretical research on the understanding of public art and its role and placement in public space, as well as empirical research on contemporary public art projects in Doha, based on documentation and interviews and as well as site and context analysis of the urban or architectural spaces within which the art is situated. Surveys and interviews – using social media - in different segments of the contemporary Qatari society, including all nationalities and social groups, are used to measure and qualify the impacts and effects on the population.

Keywords: Contemporary Public Art, Knowledge Economy, Public Realm, Site Specific Art Works.

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Authors: E. Satoh, R. Kasahara, T. Aoki, K. Fukatsu, D. Venkata Ramanarao, H. Harayama, T. Murata, A. Suwa

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Rice plant hoppers (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) have been causing extensive economic damage in rice and are considered as serious threat in rice producing countries of Asia. They have developed resistance to major groups of chemical insecticide, and severe outbreaks occur commonly throughout Asia. To control these nuisance pests, Nihon Nohyaku Co., Ltd., recently discovered an insecticide, benzpyrimoxan (proposed ISO name), which is under development as NNI-1501 (development code). Benzpyrimoxan has a unique chemical structure which contains benzyloxy and cyclic acetal groups on pyrimidine moiety (5-(1,3-dioxan-2-yl)-4-[4- (trifluoromethyl)benzyloxy]pyrimidine). In order to clarify the biological properties of benzpyrimoxan, we conducted several experiments and found the following results. Benzpyrimoxan has high activity against nymphal stages of rice plant hoppers without any adulticidal activity. It provides excellent and long lasting control against rice plant hoppers, including populations that have developed resistance to several other chemical groups of insecticide. The study on its mode of action is undergoing. These features highlight the versatility of this insecticide as an effective and valuable tool from the viewpoints of insecticide resistance management and integrated pest management program. With the use of benzpyrimoxan, farmers shall be able to lead the best yield potential by keeping the population density of rice plant hoppers and associated virus diseases under control.

Keywords: Acetal, benzpyrimoxan, insecticide, NNI-1501, pyrimidine, rice plant hoppers.

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Authors: S. Sundaravalli, M. C. Majumder, G. K. Vijayaraghavan

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The study focuses to investigate the thermal response of delaminations and develop mathematical models using numerical results to obtain the optimum heat requirement and time to identify delaminations in GLARE type of Fibre Metal Laminates (FML) in both reflection mode and through-transmission (TT) mode of step pulsed active thermography (SPAT) method in the type of nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDTE) technique. The influence of applied heat flux and time on various sizes and depth of delaminations in FML is analyzed to investigate the thermal response through numerical simulations. A finite element method (FEM) is applied to simulate SPAT through ANSYS software based on 3D transient heat transfer principle with the assumption of reflection mode and TT mode of observation individually.

The results conclude that the numerical approach based on SPAT in reflection mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of near-surface delaminations located at the thermal stimulator side and TT mode is more suitable for analysing smaller size of deeper delaminations located far from thermal stimulator side or near thermal detector/Infrared camera side. The mathematical models provide the optimum q and T at the required MRTD to identify unidentified delamination 7 with 25015.0022W/m2 at 2.531sec and delamination 8 with 16663.3356 W/m2 at 1.37857sec in reflection mode. In TT mode, the delamination 1 with 34954W/m2 at 13.0399sec, delamination 2 with 20002.67W/m2 at 1.998sec and delamination 7 with 20010.87 W/m2 at 0.6171sec could be identified.

Keywords: Step pulsed active thermography (SPAT), NDTE, FML, Delaminations, Finite element method.

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Authors: Nevena Stolba, A Min Tjoa

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Evidence-based medicine is a new direction in modern healthcare. Its task is to prevent, diagnose and medicate diseases using medical evidence. Medical data about a large patient population is analyzed to perform healthcare management and medical research. In order to obtain the best evidence for a given disease, external clinical expertise as well as internal clinical experience must be available to the healthcare practitioners at right time and in the right manner. External evidence-based knowledge can not be applied directly to the patient without adjusting it to the patient-s health condition. We propose a data warehouse based approach as a suitable solution for the integration of external evidence-based data sources into the existing clinical information system and data mining techniques for finding appropriate therapy for a given patient and a given disease. Through integration of data warehousing, OLAP and data mining techniques in the healthcare area, an easy to use decision support platform, which supports decision making process of care givers and clinical managers, is built. We present three case studies, which show, that a clinical data warehouse that facilitates evidence-based medicine is a reliable, powerful and user-friendly platform for strategic decision making, which has a great relevance for the practice and acceptance of evidence-based medicine.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, decision-support systems, evidence-based medicine.

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

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In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, null hypothesis, seismic lines, seismic reflection survey.

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Authors: S. Nitiworakarn

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In recent years, focus-group discussions, as a resources of qualitative facts collection, have gained popularity amongst practices within social science studies. Despite this popularity, studying qualitative information, particularly focus-group meetings, creates a challenge to most practitioner inspectors. The Mons, also known as Raman is considered to be one of the earliest peoples in mainland South-East Asia and to be found in scattered communities in Thailand, around the central valley and even in Bangkok. The present project responds to the needs identified traditional Mon set menus based on the participation of Bang Kadi community in Bangkok, Thailand. The aim of this study was to generate Mon food set menus based on the participation of the community and to study Mon food in set menus of Bang Kadi population by focus-group interviews and discussions during May to October 2015 of Bang Kadi community in Bangkok, Thailand. Data were collected using (1) focus group discussion between the researcher and 147 people in the community, including community leaders, women of the community and the elderly of the community (2) cooking between the researcher and 22 residents of the community. After the focus group discussion, the results found that Mon set menus of Bang Kadi residents involved of Kang Neng Kua-dit, Kang Luk-yom, Kang Som-Kajaeb, Kangleng Puk-pung, Yum Cha-cam, Pik-pa, Kao-new dek-ha and Num Ma-toom and the ingredients used in cooking are mainly found in local and seasonal regime. Most of foods in set menus are consequent from local wisdom.

Keywords: Focus groups, Mon food, set menus, Bangkok.

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Authors: Emanuele Stomeo, Tatiana Kalganova, Cyrille Lambert

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Evolvable hardware (EHW) is a developing field that applies evolutionary algorithm (EA) to automatically design circuits, antennas, robot controllers etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and several different EAs have been introduced to tackle numerous problems, as scalability, evolvability etc. However every time a specific EA is chosen for solving a particular task, all its components, such as population size, initialization, selection mechanism, mutation rate, and genetic operators, should be selected in order to achieve the best results. In the last three decade the selection of the right parameters for the EA-s components for solving different “test-problems" has been investigated. In this paper the behaviour of mutation rate for designing logic circuits, which has not been done before, has been deeply analyzed. The mutation rate for an EHW system modifies the number of inputs of each logic gates, the functionality (for example from AND to NOR) and the connectivity between logic gates. The behaviour of the mutation has been analyzed based on the number of generations, genotype redundancy and number of logic gates for the evolved circuits. The experimental results found provide the behaviour of the mutation rate during evolution for the design and optimization of simple logic circuits. The experimental results propose the best mutation rate to be used for designing combinational logic circuits. The research presented is particular important for those who would like to implement a dynamic mutation rate inside the evolutionary algorithm for evolving digital circuits. The researches on the mutation rate during the last 40 years are also summarized.

Keywords: Design of logic circuit, evolutionary computation, evolvable hardware, mutation rate.

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Kouassi Dongo, Christian Zurbrügg, Gueladio Cissé1, Brigit Obrist, Marcel Tanner, Jean Biémi

Abstract:

This study analyzed environmental health risks and people-s perceptions of risks related to waste management in poor settlements of Abidjan, to develop integrated solutions for health and well-being improvement. The trans-disciplinary approach used relied on remote sensing, a geographic information system (GIS), qualitative and quantitative methods such as interviews and a household survey (n=1800). Mitigating strategies were then developed using an integrated participatory stakeholder workshop. Waste management deficiencies resulting in lack of drainage and uncontrolled solid and liquid waste disposal in the poor settlements lead to severe environmental health risks. Health problems were caused by direct handling of waste, as well as through broader exposure of the population. People in poor settlements had little awareness of health risks related to waste management in their community and a general lack of knowledge pertaining to sanitation systems. This unfortunate combination was the key determinant affecting the health and vulnerability. For example, an increased prevalence of malaria (47.1%) and diarrhoea (19.2%) was observed in the rainy season when compared to the dry season (32.3% and 14.3%). Concerted and adapted solutions that suited all the stakeholders concerned were developed in a participatory workshop to allow for improvement of health and well-being.

Keywords: Abidjan, environmental health risks, informalsettlements, vulnerability, waste management.

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Authors: M. C. Proença

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The tools described in this paper enable the location of burned areas where took place the annihilation of natural habitats and establishes a baseline for major changes in forest ecosystems during recovery. Moreover, the result allows the follow up of the surface fuel loading, allowing the evaluation and guidance of restoration measures to remote areas by phased time planning. This case study implements the evaluation of burned areas that suffered successive wildfires in Portugal mainland during the summer of 2017, killing more than 60 people. The goal is to show that this evaluation can be done with remote sense data free of charges in a simple laptop, with open-source software, describing the not-so-simple methodology step by step, to make it accessible for local workers in the areas attained, where the availability of information is essential for the immediate planning of mitigation measures, such as restoring road access, allocate funds for the recovery of human dwellings and assess further needs for restoration of the ecological system. Wildfires also devastate forest ecosystems having a direct impact on vegetation cover and killing or driving away the animal population, besides loss of all crops in rural areas that are essential as local resources. The economic interests are also attained, as the pinewood burned becomes useless for the noblest applications, so its value decreases, and resin extraction ends for several years.

Keywords: Image processing, remote sensing, wildfires, burned areas, SENTINEL-2.

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Authors: Roy R. Gu, Mahesh Sahu, Xianggui Zhao

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Contour filter strips planted with perennial vegetation can be used to improve surface and ground water quality by reducing pollutant, such as NO3-N, and sediment outflow from cropland to a river or lake. Meanwhile, the filter strips of perennial grass with biofuel potentials also have economic benefits of producing ethanol. In this study, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the Walnut Creek Watershed to examine the effectiveness of contour strips in reducing NO3-N outflows from crop fields to the river or lake. Required input data include watershed topography, slope, soil type, land-use, management practices in the watershed and climate parameters (precipitation, maximum/minimum air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and relative humidity). Numerical experiments were conducted to identify potential subbasins in the watershed that have high water quality impact, and to examine the effects of strip size and location on NO3-N reduction in the subbasins under various meteorological conditions (dry, average and wet). Variable sizes of contour strips (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%, respectively, of a subbasin area) planted with perennial switchgrass were selected for simulating the effects of strip size and location on stream water quality. Simulation results showed that a filter strip having 10%-50% of the subbasin area could lead to 55%- 90% NO3-N reduction in the subbasin during an average rainfall year. Strips occupying 10-20% of the subbasin area were found to be more efficient in reducing NO3-N when placed along the contour than that when placed along the river. The results of this study can assist in cost-benefit analysis and decision-making in best water resources management practices for environmental protection.

Keywords: modeling, SWAT, water quality, NO3-N, watershed.

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Authors: Vipul M. Patel, Hemantkumar B. Mehta

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Technological innovations in electronic world demand novel, compact, simple in design, less costly and effective heat transfer devices. Closed Loop Pulsating Heat Pipe (CLPHP) is a passive phase change heat transfer device and has potential to transfer heat quickly and efficiently from source to sink. Thermal performance of a CLPHP is governed by various parameters such as number of U-turns, orientations, input heat, working fluids and filling ratio. The present paper is an attempt to predict the thermal performance of a CLPHP using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Filling ratio and heat input are considered as input parameters while thermal resistance is set as target parameter. Types of neural networks considered in the present paper are radial basis, generalized regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation; feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent and Elman back propagation. Linear, logistic sigmoid, tangent sigmoid and Radial Basis Gaussian Function are used as transfer functions. Prediction accuracy is measured based on the experimental data reported by the researchers in open literature as a function of Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD). The prediction of a generalized regression ANN model with spread constant of 4.8 is found in agreement with the experimental data for MARD in the range of ±1.81%.

Keywords: ANN models, CLPHP, filling ratio, generalized regression, spread constant.

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Authors: Wen-Hong Liu, Hao-Tang Jhan, Kun-Lung Lin, Meng-Tsung Lee

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Weather disaster events were frequent and caused loss of lives and property in Taiwan recently. Excessive concentration of population and lacking of integrated planning led to Taiwanese coastal zone face the impacts of climate change directly. Comparing to many countries which have already set up legislation, competent authorities and national adaptation strategies, the ability of coastal management adapting to climate change is still insufficient in Taiwan. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a complete institutional arrangement for coastal management due to climate change in order to protect environment and sustain socio-economic development. This paper firstly reviews the impact of climate change on Taiwanese coastal zone. Secondly, development of Taiwanese institutional arrangement of coastal management is introduced. Followed is the analysis of four dimensions of legal basis, competent authority, scientific and financial support and international cooperations of institutional arrangement. The results show that Taiwanese government shall: 1) integrate climate change issue into Coastal Act, Wetland Act and territorial planning Act and pass them; 2) establish the high level competent authority for coastal management; 3) set up the climate change disaster coordinate platform; 4) link scientific information and decision markers; 5) establish the climate change adjustment fund; 6) participate in international climate change organizations and meetings actively; 7) cooperate with near countries to exchange experiences.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coastal Zone Management, Institution Arrangement, Adaptation.

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Authors: Walid MOUDANI

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The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: Multi-Classifier Decisions Tree, Features Reduction, Dynamic Programming, Rough Sets.

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Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

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Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: Neighbourhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada Census, ArcGIS.

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Authors: Mohammad Hossein Hojjati , Fardin Boustani

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Groundwater is one of the most important water resources in Fars province. Based on this study, 95 percent of the total annual water consumption in Fars is used for agriculture, whereas the percentages for domestic and industrial uses are 4 and 1 percent, respectively. Population growth, urban and industrial growth, and agricultural development in Fars have created a condition of water stress. In this province, farmers and other users are pumping groundwater faster than its natural replenishment rate, causing a continuous drop in groundwater tables and depletion of this resource. In this research variation of groundwater level , their effects and ways to help control groundwater levels in some plains of Fars were evaluated .Excessive exploitation of groundwater in Darab, Jahrom, Estahban, Arsanjan, Khir and Niriz plains of Fars caused the groundwater levels fall too fast or to unacceptable levels. The average drawdown of the water table in Arsanjan, Khir. Estahban and Niriz plain plains were 12,8, 9 and 6 meters during 16,11,11 and 13 years ago respectively. This not only reduces available water resources and well yields but also can saline water intrusion, reductions in river flow and in wetland areas , drying springs, and ground subsidence, considerable increase in pumping costs and a significant decline in crop yields as a result of the increasing salinity. Finally based on situation and condition of the aquifer some suggestions are recommended.

Keywords: Fars province , ground water overdraft , water table

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