Search results for: Conditional Probability Distribution
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2355

Search results for: Conditional Probability Distribution

2115 Moment Estimators of the Parameters of Zero-One Inflated Negative Binomial Distribution

Authors: Rafid Saeed Abdulrazak Alshkaki

Abstract:

In this paper, zero-one inflated negative binomial distribution is considered, along with some of its structural properties, then its parameters were estimated using the method of moments. It is found that the method of moments to estimate the parameters of the zero-one inflated negative binomial models is not a proper method and may give incorrect conclusions.

Keywords: Zero one inflated models, negative binomial distribution, moments estimator, non-negative integer sampling.

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2114 Modeling of Alpha-Particles’ Epigenetic Effects in Short-Term Test on Drosophila melanogaster

Authors: Z. M. Biyasheva, M. Zh. Tleubergenova, Y. A. Zaripova, A. L. Shakirov, V. V. Dyachkov

Abstract:

In recent years, interest in ecogenetic and biomedical problems related to the effects on the population of radon and its daughter decay products has increased significantly. Of particular interest is the assessment of the consequence of irradiation at hazardous radon areas, which includes the Almaty region due to the large number of tectonic faults that enhance radon emanation. In connection with the foregoing, the purpose of this work was to study the genetic effects of exposure to supernormal radon doses on the alpha-radiation model. Irradiation does not affect the growth of the cell, but rather its ability to differentiate. In addition, irradiation can lead to somatic mutations, morphoses and modifications. These damages most likely occur from changes in the composition of the substances of the cell. Such changes are epigenetic since they affect the regulatory processes of ontogenesis. Variability in the expression of regulatory genes refers to conditional mutations that modify the formation of signs of intraspecific similarity. Characteristic features of these conditional mutations are the dominant type of their manifestation, phenotypic asymmetry and their instability in the generations. Currently, the terms “morphosis” and “modification” are used to describe epigenetic variability, which are maintained in Drosophila melanogaster cultures using linkaged X- chromosomes, and the mutant X-chromosome is transmitted along the paternal line. In this paper, we investigated the epigenetic effects of alpha particles, whose source in nature is mainly radon and its daughter decay products. In the experiment, an isotope of plutonium-238 (Pu238), generating radiation with an energy of about 5500 eV, was used as a source of alpha particles. In an experiment in the first generation (F1), deformities or morphoses were found, which can be called "radiation syndromes" or mutations, the manifestation of which is similar to the pleiotropic action of genes. The proportion of morphoses in the experiment was 1.8%, and in control 0.4%. In this experiment, the morphoses in the flies of the first and second generation looked like black spots, or melanomas on different parts of the imago body; "generalized" melanomas; curled, curved wings; shortened wing; bubble on one wing; absence of one wing, deformation of thorax, interruption and violation of tergite patterns, disruption of distribution of ocular facets and bristles; absence of pigmentation of the second and third legs. Statistical analysis by the Chi-square method showed the reliability of the difference in experiment and control at P ≤ 0.01. On the basis of this, it can be considered that alpha particles, which in the environment are mainly generated by radon and its isotopes, have a mutagenic effect that manifests itself, mainly in the formation of morphoses or deformities.

Keywords: Alpha-radiation, genotoxicity, morphoses, radioecology, radon.

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2113 On a Discrete-Time GIX/Geo/1/N Queue with Single Working Vacation and Partial Batch Rejection

Authors: Shan Gao

Abstract:

This paper treats a discrete-time finite buffer batch arrival queue with a single working vacation and partial batch rejection in which the inter-arrival and service times are, respectively, arbitrary and geometrically distributed. The queue is analyzed by using the supplementary variable and the imbedded Markov-chain techniques. We obtain steady-state system length distributions at prearrival, arbitrary and outside observer-s observation epochs. We also present probability generation function (p.g.f.) of actual waiting-time distribution in the system and some performance measures.

Keywords: Discrete-time, finite buffer, single working vacation, batch arrival, partial rejection.

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2112 The Role of Velocity Map Quality in Estimation of Intravascular Pressure Distribution

Authors: Ali Pashaee, Parisa Shooshtari, Gholamreza Atae, Nasser Fatouraee

Abstract:

Phase-Contrast MR imaging methods are widely used for measurement of blood flow velocity components. Also there are some other tools such as CT and Ultrasound for velocity map detection in intravascular studies. These data are used in deriving flow characteristics. Some clinical applications are investigated which use pressure distribution in diagnosis of intravascular disorders such as vascular stenosis. In this paper an approach to the problem of measurement of intravascular pressure field by using velocity field obtained from flow images is proposed. The method presented in this paper uses an algorithm to calculate nonlinear equations of Navier- Stokes, assuming blood as an incompressible and Newtonian fluid. Flow images usually suffer the lack of spatial resolution. Our attempt is to consider the effect of spatial resolution on the pressure distribution estimated from this method. In order to achieve this aim, velocity map of a numerical phantom is derived at six different spatial resolutions. To determine the effects of vascular stenoses on pressure distribution, a stenotic phantom geometry is considered. A comparison between the pressure distribution obtained from the phantom and the pressure resulted from the algorithm is presented. In this regard we also compared the effects of collocated and staggered computational grids on the pressure distribution resulted from this algorithm.

Keywords: Flow imaging, pressure distribution estimation, phantom, resolution.

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2111 Reliability Based Performance Evaluation of Stone Column Improved Soft Ground

Authors: A. GuhaRay, C. V. S. P. Kiranmayi, S. Rudraraju

Abstract:

The present study considers the effect of variation of different geotechnical random variables in the design of stone column-foundation systems for assessing the bearing capacity and consolidation settlement of highly compressible soil. The soil and stone column properties, spacing, diameter and arrangement of stone columns are considered as the random variables. Probability of failure (Pf) is computed for a target degree of consolidation and a target safe load by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The study shows that the variation in coefficient of radial consolidation (cr) and cohesion of soil (cs) are two most important factors influencing Pf. If the coefficient of variation (COV) of cr exceeds 20%, Pf exceeds 0.001, which is unsafe following the guidelines of US Army Corps of Engineers. The bearing capacity also exceeds its safe value for COV of cs > 30%. It is also observed that as the spacing between the stone column increases, the probability of reaching a target degree of consolidation decreases. Accordingly, design guidelines, considering both consolidation and bearing capacity of improved ground, are proposed for different spacing and diameter of stone columns and geotechnical random variables.

Keywords: Bearing capacity, consolidation, geotechnical random variables, probability of failure, stone columns.

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2110 Reliability Analysis in Electrical Distribution System Considering Preventive Maintenance Applications on Circuit Breakers

Authors: Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Saeed Afshar

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a preventive maintenance application-based study and modeling of failure rates in breakers of electrical distribution systems. This is a critical issue in the reliability assessment of a system. In the analysis conducted in this paper, the impacts of failure rate variations caused by a preventive maintenance are examined. This is considered as a part of a Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) application program. A number of load point reliability indices is derived using the mathematical model of the failure rate, which is established using the observed data in a distribution system.

Keywords: Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM), failure rate, preventive maintenance (PM), Distribution System Reliability.

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2109 Modeling Low Voltage Power Line as a Data Communication Channel

Authors: Eklas Hossain, Sheroz Khan, Ahad Ali

Abstract:

Power line communications may be used as a data communication channel in public and indoor distribution networks so that it does not require the installing of new cables. Industrial low voltage distribution network may be utilized for data transfer required by the on-line condition monitoring of electric motors. This paper presents a pilot distribution network for modeling low voltage power line as data transfer channel. The signal attenuation in communication channels in the pilot environment is presented and the analysis is done by varying the corresponding parameters for the signal attenuation.

Keywords: Data communication, indoor distribution networks, low voltage, power line.

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2108 Approximate Confidence Interval for Effect Size Base on Bootstrap Resampling Method

Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: Effect size, confidence interval, Bootstrap Method.

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2107 Spatial Distribution of Cd, Zn and Hg in Groundwater at Rayong Province, Thailand

Authors: T. Makkasap, T. Satapanajaru

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution patterns of Cd, Zn and Hg in groundwater by geospatial interpolation. The study was performed at Rayong province in the eastern part of Thailand, with high agricultural and industrial activities. Groundwater samples were collected twice a year from 31 tubewells around this area. Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometer (ICP-AES) was used to measure the concentrations of Cd, Zn, and Hg in groundwater samples. The results demonstrated that concentrations of Cd, Zn and Hg range from 0.000-0.297 mg/L (x = 0.021±0.033 mg/L), 0.022-33.236 mg/L (x = 4.214±4.766 mg/L) and 0.000-0.289 mg/L (x = 0.023±0.034 mg/L), respectively. Most of the heavy metals concentrations were exceeded groundwater quality standards as specified in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand. The trend distribution of heavy metals were high concentrations at the southeastern part of the area that especially vulnerable to heavy metals and other contaminants.

Keywords: Groundwater, Heavy metals, Kriging, Rayong, Spatial distribution.

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2106 Performance Analysis of a Hybrid DF-AF Hybrid RF/FSO System under Gamma Gamma Atmospheric Turbulence Channel Using MPPM Modulation

Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

Abstract:

The performance of hybrid amplify and forward - decode and forward (AF-DF) hybrid radio frequency/free space optical (RF/FSO) communication system, that adopts M-ary pulse position modulation (MPPM) techniques, is analyzed. Both exact and approximate symbol-error rates (SERs) are derived. The random variations of the received optical irradiance, produced by the atmospheric turbulence, is modeled by the gamma-gamma (GG) statistical distribution. A closed-form expression for the probability density function (PDF) is derived for the whole above system is obtained. Thanks to the use of hybrid AF-DF hybrid RF/FSO configuration and MPPM, the effects of atmospheric turbulence is mitigated; hence the capacity of combating atmospheric turbulence and the transmissitted signal quality are improved.

Keywords: FSO, RF, hybrid, AF, DF, SER, SNR, GG channel.

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2105 Optimal Analysis of Grounding System Design for Distribution Substation

Authors: T. Lantharthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep, A. Phayomhom

Abstract:

This paper presents the electrical effect of two neighboring distribution substation during the construction phase. The size of auxiliary grounding grid have an effect on entire grounding system. The bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the lower the GPR and maximum touch voltage, with the exception that when the two grids are unconnected, i.e. the bigger the size of auxiliary grounding grid, the higher the maximum step voltage. The results in this paper could be served as design guideline of grounding system, and perhaps remedy of some troublesome grounding grids in power distribution’s system. Modeling and simulation is carried out on the Current Distribution Electromagnetic interference Grounding and Soil structure (CDEGS) program. The simulation results exhibit the design and analysis of power system grounding and perhaps could be set as a standard in grounding system design and modification in distribution substations.

Keywords: Grounding System, Touch Voltage, Step Voltage, Safety Criteria.

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2104 Temperature Distribution Enhancement in a Conical Diffuser Fitted with Helical Screw-Tape with and without Center-Rod

Authors: Ehan Sabah Shukri, Wirachman Wisnoe

Abstract:

Temperature distribution investigation in a conical diffuser fitted with helical screw-tape with and without center-rod is studied numerically. A helical screw-tape is inserted in the diffuser to create swirl flow that helps to enhance the temperature distribution rate with inlet Reynolds number 4.3 x 104. Three pitch lengths ratios (Y/L = 0.153, 0.23 and 0.307) for the helical screw-tape with and without center-rod are simulated and compared. The geometry of the conical diffuser and the inlet condition for both arrangements are kept constant. Numerical findings show that the helical screw-tape inserts without center-rod perform significantly better than the helical tape inserts with center-rod in the conical diffuser.

Keywords: Diffuser, temperature distribution, CFD, pitch length ratio.

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2103 Speed Characteristics of Mixed Traffic Flow on Urban Arterials

Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Satish Chandra

Abstract:

Speed and traffic volume data are collected on different sections of four lane and six lane roads in three metropolitan cities in India. Speed data are analyzed to fit the statistical distribution to individual vehicle speed data and all vehicles speed data. It is noted that speed data of individual vehicle generally follows a normal distribution but speed data of all vehicle combined at a section of urban road may or may not follow the normal distribution depending upon the composition of traffic stream. A new term Speed Spread Ratio (SSR) is introduced in this paper which is the ratio of difference in 85th and 50th percentile speed to the difference in 50th and 15th percentile speed. If SSR is unity then speed data are truly normally distributed. It is noted that on six lane urban roads, speed data follow a normal distribution only when SSR is in the range of 0.86 – 1.11. The range of SSR is validated on four lane roads also.

Keywords: Normal distribution, percentile speed, speed spread ratio, traffic volume.

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2102 Clusterization Probability in 14N Nuclei

Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

Abstract:

The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N  is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this  attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion  beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low  energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb  barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer  reactions could provide us with useful information about the  attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The  experimental data were analyzed using two approaches;  Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double  Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and  the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

 

Keywords: Deuteron Transfer, Elastic Scattering, Optical Model, Double Folding, Density Distribution.

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2101 A Dynamic Programming Model for Maintenance of Electric Distribution System

Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

Abstract:

The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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2100 Effects of Distributed Generation on Voltage Profile for Reconfiguration of Distribution Networks

Authors: Mahdi Hayatdavudi, Ali Reza Rajabi, Mohammad Hassan Raouf, Mojtaba Saeedimoghadam, Amir Habibi

Abstract:

Generally, distributed generation units refer to small-scale electric power generators that produce electricity at a site close to the customer or an electric distribution system (in parallel mode). From the customers’ point of view, a potentially lower cost, higher service reliability, high power quality, increased energy efficiency, and energy independence can be the key points of a proper DG unit. Moreover, the use of renewable types of distributed generations such as wind, photovoltaic, geothermal or hydroelectric power can also provide significant environmental benefits. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to study their impacts on the distribution networks. A marked increase in Distributed Generation (DG), associated with medium voltage distribution networks, may be expected. Nowadays, distribution networks are planned for unidirectional power flows that are peculiar to passive systems, and voltage control is carried out exclusively by varying the tap position of the HV/MV transformer. This paper will compare different DG control methods and possible network reconfiguration aimed at assessing their effect on voltage profiles.

Keywords: Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration (DFR), Distributed Generator (DG), Voltage Profile, Control.

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2099 Input Data Balancing in a Neural Network PM-10 Forecasting System

Authors: Suk-Hyun Yu, Heeyong Kwon

Abstract:

Recently PM-10 has become a social and global issue. It is one of major air pollutants which affect human health. Therefore, it needs to be forecasted rapidly and precisely. However, PM-10 comes from various emission sources, and its level of concentration is largely dependent on meteorological and geographical factors of local and global region, so the forecasting of PM-10 concentration is very difficult. Neural network model can be used in the case. But, there are few cases of high concentration PM-10. It makes the learning of the neural network model difficult. In this paper, we suggest a simple input balancing method when the data distribution is uneven. It is based on the probability of appearance of the data. Experimental results show that the input balancing makes the neural networks’ learning easy and improves the forecasting rates.

Keywords: AI, air quality prediction, neural networks, pattern recognition, PM-10.

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2098 Study on the Heat Transfer Performance of the Annular Fin under Condensing Conditions

Authors: Abdenour Bourabaa, Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

Abstract:

A numerical investigation of the fin efficiency and temperature distribution of an annular fin under dehumidification has been presented in this paper. The non-homogeneous second order differential equation that describes the temperature distribution from the fin base to the fin tip has been solved using the central finite difference method. The effects of variations in parameters including relative humidity, air temperature, air face velocity on temperature distribution and fin efficiency are investigated and compared with those under fully dry fin conditions. Also, the effect of fin pitch on the dimensionless temperature has been studied.

Keywords: Annular fin, Dehumidification, Fin efficiency, Heat and mass transfer, Wet fin.

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2097 Effect of Distributed Generators on the Optimal Operation of Distribution Networks

Authors: J. Olamaei , T. Niknam, M. Nayeripour

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for daily optimal operation of distribution networks considering Distributed Generators (DGs). Due to private ownership of DGs, a cost based compensation method is used to encourage DGs in active and reactive power generation. The objective function is summation of electrical energy generated by DGs and substation bus (main bus) in the next day. A genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimal operation problem. The approach is tested on an IEEE34 buses distribution feeder.

Keywords: Distributed Generator, Daily Optimal Operation, Genetic Algorithm.

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2096 Performance Evaluation of the OCDM/WDM Technique for Optical Packet Switches

Authors: V. Eramo, L. Piazzo, M. Listanti, A. Germoni, A Cianfrani

Abstract:

The performance of the Optical Code Division Multiplexing/ Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM/OCDM) technique for Optical Packet Switch is investigated. The impact on the performance of the impairment due to both Multiple Access Interference and Beat noise is studied. The Packet Loss Probability due to output packet contentions is evaluated as a function of the main switch and traffic parameters when Gold coherent optical codes are adopted. The Packet Loss Probability of the OCDM/WDM switch can reach 10-9 when M=16 wavelengths, Gold code of length L=511 and only 24 wavelength converters are used in the switch.

Keywords: Optical code division multiplexing, bufferless optical packet switch, performance evaluation.

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2095 Evaluation of Seismic Damage for Gisha Bridge in Tehran by HAZUS Methodology

Authors: Langroudi B., Salehi E., Keshani S., Baghersad M.

Abstract:

Transportation is of great importance in the current life of human beings. The transportation system plays many roles, from economical development to after-catastrophe aids such as rescue operation in the first hours and days after an earthquake. In after earthquakes response phase, transportation system acts as a basis for ground operations including rescue and relief operation, food providing for victims and etc. It is obvious that partial or complete obstruction of this system results in the stop of these operations. Bridges are one of the most important elements of transportation network. Failure of a bridge, in the most optimistic case, cuts the relation between two regions and in more developed countries, cuts the relation of numerous regions. In this paper, to evaluate the vulnerability and estimate the damage level of Tehran bridges, HAZUS method, developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) with the aid of National Institute of Building Science (NIBS), is used for the first time in Iran. In this method, to evaluate the collapse probability, fragility curves are used. Iran is located on seismic belt and thus, it is vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, the study of the probability of bridge collapses, as an important part of transportation system, during earthquakes is of great importance. The purpose of this study is to provide fragility curves for Gisha Bridge, one of the longest steel bridges in Tehran, as an important lifeline element. Besides, the damage probability for this bridge during a specific earthquake, introduced as scenario earthquakes, is calculated. The fragility curves show that for the considered scenario, the probability of occurrence of complete collapse for the bridge is 8.6%.

Keywords: Bridge, Damage evaluation, Fragility curve, Lifelines, Seismic vulnerability.

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2094 Imposter Detection Based on Location in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network

Authors: Sanjoy Das, Akash Arya, Rishi Pal Singh

Abstract:

Vehicular Ad hoc Network is basically the solution of several problems associated while vehicles are plying on the road. In this paper, we have focused on the detection of imposter node while it has stolen the ID's of the authenticated vehicle in the network. The purpose is to harm the network through imposter messages. Here, we have proposed a protocol namely Imposter Detection based on Location (IDBL), which will store the location coordinate of the each vehicle as the key of the authenticity of the message so that imposter node can be detected. The imposter nodes send messages from a stolen ID and show that it is from an authentic node ID. So, to detect this anomaly, the first location is checked and observed different from original vehicle location. This node is known as imposter node. We have implemented the algorithm through JAVA and tested various types of node distribution and observed the detection probability of imposter node.

Keywords: Authentication, detection, IDBL protocol, imposter node, node detection.

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2093 Unsteady Temperature Distribution in a Finite Functionally Graded Cylinder

Authors: A. Amiri Delouei

Abstract:

In the current study, two-dimensional unsteady heat conduction in a functionally graded cylinder is studied analytically. The temperature distribution is in radial and longitudinal directions. Heat conduction coefficients are considered a power function of radius both in radial and longitudinal directions. The proposed solution can exactly satisfy the boundary conditions. Analytical unsteady temperature distribution for different parameters of functionally graded cylinder is investigated. The achieved exact solution is useful for thermal stress analysis of functionally graded cylinders. Regarding the analytical approach, this solution can be used to understand the concepts of heat conduction in functionally graded materials.

Keywords: Functionally graded materials, unsteady heat conduction, cylinder, Temperature distribution.

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2092 Analysis of Distribution of Thrust, Torque and Efficiency of a Constant Chord, Constant Pitch C.R.P. Fan by H.E.S. Method

Authors: Morteza Abbaszadeh, Parvin Nikpoorparizi, Mina Shahrooz

Abstract:

For the first time since 1940 and presentation of theodorson-s theory, distribution of thrust, torque and efficiency along the blade of a counter rotating propeller axial fan was studied with a novel method in this research. A constant chord, constant pitch symmetric fan was investigated with Reynolds Stress Turbulence method in this project and H.E.S. method was utilized to obtain distribution profiles from C.F.D. tests outcome. C.F.D. test results were validated by estimation from Playlic-s analytical method. Final results proved ability of H.E.S. method to obtain distribution profiles from C.F.D test results and demonstrated interesting facts about effects of solidity and differences between distributions in front and rear section.

Keywords: C.F.D Test, Counter Rotating Propeller, H.E.S. Method, R.S.M. Method

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2091 Artificial Neural Network Model for a Low Cost Failure Sensor: Performance Assessment in Pipeline Distribution

Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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2090 Technical and Economic Impacts of Distributed Generation on Distribution System

Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

Abstract:

Distributed Generation (DG) in the form of renewable power generation systems is currently preferred for clean power generation. It has a significant impact on the distribution systems. This impact may be either positively or negatively depending on the distribution system, distributed generator and load characteristics. In this works, an overview of DG is briefly introduced. The technology of DG is also listed while the technical impacts and economic impacts are explained.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Technical Impacts, Economic Impacts.

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2089 Alternative Robust Estimators for the Shape Parameters of the Burr XII Distribution

Authors: F. Z. Doğru, O. Arslan

Abstract:

In general, classical methods such as maximum likelihood (ML) and least squares (LS) estimation methods are used to estimate the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. However, these estimators are very sensitive to the outliers. To overcome this problem we propose alternative robust estimators based on the M-estimation method for the shape parameters of the Burr XII distribution. We provide a small simulation study and a real data example to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimators over the ML and the LS estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed robust estimators generally outperform the classical estimators in terms of bias and root mean square errors when there are outliers in data.

Keywords: Burr XII distribution, robust estimator, M-estimator, maximum likelihood, least squares.

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2088 On Simple Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean with Known Coefficient of Variation

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed the new confidence interval for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. In practice, this situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture sciences where we know the standard deviation is proportional to the mean. As a result, the coefficient of variation of is known. We propose the new confidence interval based on the recent work of Khan [3] and this new confidence interval will compare with our previous work, see, e.g. Niwitpong [5]. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. A numerical method will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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2087 Reconstitute Information about Discontinued Water Quality Variables in the Nile Delta Monitoring Network Using Two Record Extension Techniques

Authors: Bahaa Khalil, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, André St-Hilaire

Abstract:

The world economic crises and budget constraints have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured. Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables, the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable for inferring statements about the probability distribution.

Keywords: Record extension, record augmentation, monitoringnetworks, water quality indicators.

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2086 Distributed Generator Placement and Sizing in Unbalanced Radial Distribution System

Authors: J. B. V. Subrahmanyam, C. Radhakrishna

Abstract:

To minimize power losses, it is important to determine the location and size of local generators to be placed in unbalanced power distribution systems. On account of some inherent features of unbalanced distribution systems, such as radial structure, large number of nodes, a wide range of X/R ratios, the conventional techniques developed for the transmission systems generally fail on the determination of optimum size and location of distributed generators (DGs). This paper presents a simple method for investigating the problem of contemporaneously choosing best location and size of DG in three-phase unbalanced radial distribution system (URDS) for power loss minimization and to improve the voltage profile of the system. Best location of the DG is determined by using voltage index analysis and size of DG is computed by variational technique algorithm according to available standard size of DGs. This paper presents the results of simulations for 25-bus and IEEE 37- bus Unbalanced Radial Distribution system.

Keywords: Distributed generator, unbalanced radial distributionsystem, voltage index analysis, variational algorithm.

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