Search results for: Decision Theory

Authors: Ainon Syazana Ab. Hamid, Seripah Awang Kechil, Ahmad Sukri Abd. Aziz

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The Marangoni convective instability in a horizontal fluid layer with the insoluble surfactant and nondeformable free surface is investigated. The surface tension at the free surface is linearly dependent on the temperature and concentration gradients. At the bottom surface, the temperature conditions of uniform temperature and uniform heat flux are considered. By linear stability theory, the exact analytical solutions for the steady Marangoni convection are derived and the marginal curves are plotted. The effects of surfactant or elasticity number, Lewis number and Biot number on the marginal Marangoni instability are assessed. The surfactant concentration gradients and the heat transfer mechanism at the free surface have stabilizing effects while the Lewis number destabilizes fluid system. The fluid system with uniform temperature condition at the bottom boundary is more stable than the fluid layer that is subjected to uniform heat flux at the bottom boundary.

Keywords: Analytical solutions, Marangoni Instability, Nondeformable free surface, Surfactant.

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: Ali Alotaibi, Francis Edum-Fotwe, Andrew Price /

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Mega construction projects create buildings and major infrastructure to respond to work and life requirements while playing a vital role in promoting any nation’s economy. However, the industry is often criticised for not balancing economic, environmental and social dimensions of their projects, with emphasis typically on one aspect to the detriment of the others. This has resulted in many negative impacts including environmental pollution, waste throughout the project lifecycle, low productivity, and avoidable accidents. The identification of comprehensive Social Responsibility (SR) indicators, which combine social, environmental and economic aspects, is urgently needed. This is particularly the case in the context of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which often has mega public construction projects. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of wide-ranging SR indicators which encompass social, economic and environmental aspects unique to the KSA. A qualitative approach was applied to explore relevant indicators through a review of the existing literature, international standards and reports. A list of appropriate indicators was developed, and its comprehensiveness was corroborated by interviews with experts on mega construction projects working with SR concepts in the KSA. The findings present 39 indicators and their metrics, covering 10 economic, 12 environmental and 17 social aspects of SR mapped against their references. These indicators are a valuable reference for decision-makers and academics in the KSA to understand factors related to SR in mega construction projects. The indicators are related to mega construction projects within the KSA and require validation in a real case scenario or within a different industry to demonstrate their generalisability.

Keywords: Social responsibility, construction projects, economic, social, environmental, indicators.

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Authors: Michael Zimba, Darlison Nyirenda

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A novel copy-move image forgery, CMIF, detection method is proposed. The proposed method presents a new approach which relies on electrostatic field theory, EFT. Solely for the purpose of reducing the dimension of a suspicious image, the proposed algorithm firstly performs discrete wavelet transform, DWT, of the suspicious image and extracts only the approximation subband. The extracted subband is then bijectively mapped onto a virtual electrostatic field where concepts of EFT are utilized to extract robust features. The extracted features are invariant to additive noise, JPEG compression, and affine transformation. Finally, same affine transformation selection, SATS, a duplication verification method, is applied to detect duplicated regions. SATS is a better option than the common shift vector method because SATS is insensitive to affine transformation. Consequently, the proposed CMIF algorithm is not only fast but also more robust to attacks compared to the existing related CMIF algorithms. The experimental results show high detection rates, as high as 100% in some cases.

Keywords: Affine transformation, Radix sort, SATS, Virtual electrostatic field.

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Authors: Adekunle O. Afolabi, Pekka Toivanen

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The world is expected to experience growth in the number of ageing population, and this will bring about high cost of providing care for these valuable citizens. In addition, many of these live with chronic diseases that come with old age. Providing adequate care in the face of rising costs and dwindling personnel can be challenging. However, advances in technologies and emergence of the Internet of Things are providing a way to address these challenges while improving care giving. This study proposes the integration of recommendation systems into homecare to provide real-time recommendations for effective management of people receiving care at home and those living with chronic diseases. Using the simplified Training Logic Concept, stakeholders and requirements were identified. Specific requirements were gathered from people living with cancer. The solution designed has two components namely home and community, to enhance recommendations sharing for effective care giving. The community component of the design was implemented with the development of a mobile app called Recommendations Sharing Community for Aged and Chronically Ill People (ReSCAP). This component has illustrated the possibility of real-time recommendations, improved recommendations sharing among care receivers and between a physician and care receivers. Full implementation will increase access to health data for better care decision making.

Keywords: Recommendation systems, healthcare, internet of things, real-time, homecare.

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Authors: Sun Li-ping, Zhu Jian-xun, Liu Sheng-nan

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In order to study the performance of dynamic positioning system during S-lay operations, dynamic positioning system is simulated with the hull-stinger-pipe coupling effect. The roller of stinger is simulated by the generalized elastic contact theory. The stinger is composed of Morrison members. Force on pipe is calculated by lumped mass method. Time domain of fully coupled barge model is analyzed combining with PID controller, Kalman filter and allocation of thrust using Sequential Quadratic Programming method. It is also analyzed that the effect of hull wave frequency motion on pipe-stinger coupling force and dynamic positioning system. Besides, it is studied that how S-lay operations affect the dynamic positioning accuracy. The simulation results are proved to be available by checking pipe stress with API criterion. The effect of heave and yaw motion cannot be ignored on hull-stinger-pipe coupling force and dynamic positioning system. It is important to decrease the barge’s pitch motion and lay pipe in head sea in order to improve safety of the S-lay installation and dynamic positioning.

Keywords: S-lay operation, dynamic positioning, coupling motion; time domain, allocation of thrust.

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Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

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The study was carried out to establish the probability density function of some selected building construction projects of similar complexity delivered using Bill of Quantities (BQ) and Lump Sum (LS) forms of contract, and to draw a reliability scenario for each form of contract. 30 of such delivered projects are analyzed for each of the contract forms using Weibull Analysis, and their Weibull functions (α, and β) are determined based on their completion times. For the BQ form of contract delivered projects, α is calculated as 1.6737E20 and β as + 0.0115 and for the LS form, α is found to be 5.6556E03 and β is determined as + 0.4535. Using these values, respective probability density functions are calculated and plotted, as handy tool for risk analysis of future projects of similar characteristics. By input of variables from other projects, decision making processes can be made for a whole project or its components using EVM Analysis in project evaluation and review techniques. This framework, as a quantitative approach, depends on the assumption of normality in projects completion time, it can help greatly in determining the completion time probability for veritable projects using any of the contract forms under consideration. Projects aspects that are not amenable to measurement, on the other hand, can be analyzed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. This scenario can be drawn for different types of building construction projects, and using different suitable forms of contract in projects delivery.

Keywords: Building construction, Projects, Forms of contract, Probability density function, Reliability scenario.

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Authors: Josiel Delgadillo, Johnson Kinyua, Charles Mutigwe

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The purpose of sentiment analysis is to determine the sentiment strength (e.g., positive, negative, neutral) from a textual source for good decision-making. Natural Language Processing (NLP) in domains such as financial markets requires knowledge of domain ontology, and pre-trained language models, such as BERT, have made significant breakthroughs in various NLP tasks by training on large-scale un-labeled generic corpora such as Wikipedia. However, sentiment analysis is a strong domain-dependent task. The rapid growth of social media has given users a platform to share their experiences and views about products, services, and processes, including financial markets. StockTwits and Twitter are social networks that allow the public to express their sentiments in real time. Hence, leveraging the success of unsupervised pre-training and a large amount of financial text available on social media platforms could potentially benefit a wide range of financial applications. This work is focused on sentiment analysis using social media text on platforms such as StockTwits and Twitter. To meet this need, SkyBERT, a domain-specific language model pre-trained and fine-tuned on financial corpora, has been developed. The results show that SkyBERT outperforms current state-of-the-art models in financial sentiment analysis. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of SkyBERT.

Keywords: BERT, financial markets, Twitter, sentiment analysis.

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yen-Jung Wang

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A product development for green logistics model using the fuzzy analytic network process method is presented for evaluating the relationships among the product design, the manufacturing activities, and the green supply chain. In the product development stage, there can be alternative ways to design the detailed components to satisfy the design concept and product requirement. In different design alternative cases, the manufacturing activities can be different. In addition, the manufacturing activities can affect the green supply chain of the components and product. In this research, a fuzzy analytic network process evaluation model is presented for evaluating the criteria in product design, manufacturing activities, and green supply chain. The comparison matrices for evaluating the criteria among the three groups are established. The total relational values between the three groups represent the relationships and effects. In application, the total relational values can be used to evaluate the design alternative cases for decision-making to select a suitable design case and the green supply chain. In this presentation, an example product is illustrated. It shows that the model is useful for integrated evaluation of design and manufacturing and green supply chain for the purpose of product development for green logistics.

Keywords: Supply chain management, green supply chain, product development for logistics, fuzzy analytic network process.

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Authors: Duangkamol Thitivesa, Abigail Melad Essien

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This paper explores the use of project work in a content-based instruction in a Rajabhat University, a teacher college, where student teachers are instructed to perform teaching roles mainly in basic education level. Its aim is to link theory to practice, and to help language teachers maximize the full potential of project work for genuine communication and give real meaning to writing activity. Two research questions are formulated to guide this study: a) What is the academic achievement of the students- writing skill against the 70% attainment target after the use of project to enhance the skill? and b) To what degree is the development of the students- writing skills during the course of project to enhance the skill? The sample of the study comprised of 38 fourth-year English major students. The data was collected by means of achievement test, student writing works, and project diary. The scores in the summative achievement test were analyzed by mean score, standard deviation, and t-test. Project diary serves as students- record of the language acquired during the project. List of structures and vocabulary noted in the diary has shown students- ability to attend to, recognize, and focus on meaningful patterns of language forms.

Keywords: EFL classroom, Project-Based Learning, project work, writing skill.

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Authors: A. K. Akhmetbekova, D. T. Koptileuova, A. B. Zhyekbaeva, M. E. Aitzhanov

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Most of the academics connect a theory of multiculturalism with globalization and limit it by last decades of 20th century. However, Kazakh society encountered with this problem when the Soviet-s rule emerged. As a result of repression, the Second World War, development of virgin lands representatives of more than 100 nationalities lives in Kazakhstan. Communist ideology propagandized internationalism, which would defined principles of multicultural community but a common ideology demands a single culture. As a result multicultural society in the USSR developed under control of Russian culture. Education in the USSR was conducted in two departments: autochthonous and Russian. Autochthonous education narrowed student capabilities. Also because of soviet ideology science was conducted in Russian Universities provided education in Russian and all science literature were in Russian. Exceptions were humanitarian fields where Kazakh departments were admitted. Naturally non-Kazakhs studied in Russian departments, moreover Kazakhs preferred to study in Russian as most do nowadays preferring English. As a result Kazakh society consisted of Kazakhs, Kazakhs who recognized Russian as a mother tongue and other nationalities who were also Russian speakers. This aspect continues to distinguish particular qualities of multicultural community in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Ideology, internationalism, multicultural society, Russian society.

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Authors: L. K. Singh, Riktesh Srivastava

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How to effectively allocate system resource to process the Client request by Gateway servers is a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose an improved scheme for autonomous performance of Gateway servers under highly dynamic traffic loads. We devise a methodology to calculate Queue Length and Waiting Time utilizing Gateway Server information to reduce response time variance in presence of bursty traffic. The most widespread contemplation is performance, because Gateway Servers must offer cost-effective and high-availability services in the elongated period, thus they have to be scaled to meet the expected load. Performance measurements can be the base for performance modeling and prediction. With the help of performance models, the performance metrics (like buffer estimation, waiting time) can be determined at the development process. This paper describes the possible queue models those can be applied in the estimation of queue length to estimate the final value of the memory size. Both simulation and experimental studies using synthesized workloads and analysis of real-world Gateway Servers demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: M/M/1, M/G/1, G/M/1, G/G/1, Gateway Servers, Buffer Estimation, Waiting Time, Queuing Process.

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Authors: M.M. Namazi, S.M. Saghaiannejad, A. Rashidi

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In this paper by using the port-controlled Hamiltonian (PCH) systems theory, a full-order nonlinear controlled model is first developed. Then a nonlinear passivity-based robust adaptive control (PBRAC) of switched reluctance motor in the presence of external disturbances for the purpose of torque ripple reduction and characteristic improvement is presented. The proposed controller design is separated into the inner loop and the outer loop controller. In the inner loop, passivity-based control is employed by using energy shaping techniques to produce the proper switching function. The outer loop control is employed by robust adaptive controller to determine the appropriate Torque command. It can also overcome the inherent nonlinear characteristics of the system and make the whole system robust to uncertainties and bounded disturbances. A 4KW 8/6 SRM with experimental characteristics that takes magnetic saturation into account is modeled, simulation results show that the proposed scheme has good performance and practical application prospects.

Keywords: Switched Reluctance Motor, Port HamiltonianSystem, Passivity-Based Control, Torque Ripple Minimization

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Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Viktoria Ivanova, Alexander Neprokin, Vladislav Golovanov

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Currently, LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft» is implementing a comprehensive program for the development of offshore fields of the Kaliningrad region. This is largely associated with the depletion of the resource base of land in the region, as well as the positive results of geological investigation surrounding the Baltic Sea area and the data on the volume of hydrocarbon recovery from a single offshore field are working on the Kaliningrad region – D-6 «Kravtsovskoye».The article analyzes the main stages of the LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft»’s development program for the development of the hydrocarbon resources of the region's shelf and suggests an optimization algorithm that allows managing a multi-criteria process of development of shelf deposits. The algorithm is formed on the basis of the problem of sequential decision making, which is a section of dynamic programming. Application of the algorithm during the consolidation of the initial data, the elaboration of project documentation, the further exploration and development of offshore fields will allow to optimize the complex of technical and technological solutions and increase the economic efficiency of the field development project implemented by LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft».

Keywords: Offshore fields of hydrocarbons of the Baltic Sea, Development of offshore oil and gas fields, Optimization of the field development scheme, Solution of multi-criteria tasks in the oil and gas complex, Quality management of technical and technological processes.

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Authors: G. Renuka Devi

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This paper presents design and analysis of fault tolerate feature of n-phase induction motor drive. The n-phase induction motor (more than 3-phases) has a number of advantages over conventional 3-phase induction motor, it has low torque pulsation with increased torque density, more fault tolerant feature, low current ripple with increased efficiency. When increasing the number of phases, it has reduced current per phase without increasing per phase voltage, resulting in an increase in the total power rating of n-phase motors in the same volume machine. In this paper, the theory of operation of a multi-phase induction motor is discussed. The detailed study of d-q modeling of n-phase induction motors is elaborated. The d-q model of n-phase (5, 6, 7, 9 and 12) induction motors is developed in a MATLAB/Simulink environment. The steady state and dynamic performance of the multi-phase induction motor is studied under varying load conditions. Comparison of 5-phase induction is presented under normal and fault conditions.

Keywords: d-q model, dynamic Response, fault tolerant feature, matlab/simulink, multi-phase induction motor, transient response.

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Authors: Golnaz Moghimi, Alireza Afsharghotli, Alireza Rezaei

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Construction waste has been gradually increased as a result of upsizing construction projects which are occurred within the lifecycle of buildings. Since waste management is a major priority and has profound impacts on the volume of waste generated in construction stage, the majority of efforts have been attempted to reuse, recycle and reduce waste. However, there is still room to study on lack of sufficient knowledge about waste management in construction industry. This paper intends to provide an insight into the effect of project management knowledge areas on waste management solely on construction stage. To this end, a survey among Iranian building construction industry contractors was conducted to identify the effectiveness of project management knowledge areas on three jobsite key factors including ‘Site activity’, ‘Training’, and ‘Awareness’. As a result, four management disciplines were identified as most influential ones on amount of construction waste. These disciplines were Project Cost Management, Quality Management, Human Resource Management, and Integration Management. Based on the research findings, a new model was presented to develop effective construction waste strategies.

Keywords: Awareness, PMBOK, site activity, training, waste management.

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Authors: R. Usubamatov, A. Usubamatova, S. Hussain

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Modern highly automated production systems faces problems of reliability. Machine function reliability results in changes of productivity rate and efficiency use of expensive industrial facilities. Predicting of reliability has become an important research and involves complex mathematical methods and calculation. The reliability of high productivity technological automatic machines that consists of complex mechanical, electrical and electronic components is important. The failure of these units results in major economic losses of production systems. The reliability of transport and feeding systems for automatic technological machines is also important, because failure of transport leads to stops of technological machines. This paper presents reliability engineering on the feeding system and its components for transporting a complex shape parts to automatic machines. It also discusses about the calculation of the reliability parameters of the feeding unit by applying the probability theory. Equations produced for calculating the limits of the geometrical sizes of feeders and the probability of sticking the transported parts into the chute represents the reliability of feeders as a function of its geometrical parameters.

Keywords: Chute-feeder, parts, reliability.

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Authors: T. Cornelius, G. Secilmis

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When dealing with safety in structures, the connections between structural components play an important role. Robustness of a structure as a whole depends both on the load- bearing capacity of the structural component and on the structures capacity to resist total failure, even though a local failure occurs in a component or a connection between components. To avoid progressive collapse it is necessary to be able to carry out a design for connections. A connection may be executed with anchors to withstand local failure of the connection in structures built with prefabricated components. For the design of these anchors, a model is developed for connections in structures performed in prefabricated autoclaved aerated concrete components. The design model takes into account the effect of anchors placed close to the edge, which may result in splitting failure. Further the model is developed to consider the effect of reinforcement diameter and anchor depth. The model is analytical and theoretically derived assuming a static equilibrium stress distribution along the anchor. The theory is compared to laboratory test, including the relevant parameters and the model is refined and theoretically argued analyzing the observed test results. The method presented can be used to improve safety in structures or even optimize the design of the connections

Keywords: Robustness, anchors, connections, aircrete, prefabricated components.

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Authors: F. Jiménez, R. Jódar, M. Martín, G. Sánchez, G. Sciavicco

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Abstract—Attribute or feature selection is one of the basic strategies to improve the performances of data classification tasks, and, at the same time, to reduce the complexity of classifiers, and it is a particularly fundamental one when the number of attributes is relatively high. Its application to unsupervised classification is restricted to a limited number of experiments in the literature. Evolutionary computation has already proven itself to be a very effective choice to consistently reduce the number of attributes towards a better classification rate and a simpler semantic interpretation of the inferred classifiers. We present a feature selection wrapper model composed by a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the clustering method Expectation-Maximization (EM), and the classifier C4.5 for the unsupervised classification of data extracted from a psychological test named BASC-II (Behavior Assessment System for Children - II ed.) with two objectives: Maximizing the likelihood of the clustering model and maximizing the accuracy of the obtained classifier. We present a methodology to integrate feature selection for unsupervised classification, model evaluation, decision making (to choose the most satisfactory model according to a a posteriori process in a multi-objective context), and testing. We compare the performance of the classifier obtained by the multi-objective evolutionary algorithms ENORA and NSGA-II, and the best solution is then validated by the psychologists that collected the data.

Keywords: Feature selection, multi-objective evolutionary computation, unsupervised classification, behavior assessment system for children.

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Authors: Rachid.Dehini, Abdesselam.Bassou, Brahim.Ferdi

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Active Power Filters (APFs) are today the most widely used systems to eliminate harmonics compensate power factor and correct unbalanced problems in industrial power plants. We propose to improve the performances of conventional APFs by using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for harmonics estimation. This new method combines both the strategies for extracting the three-phase reference currents for active power filters and DC link voltage control method. The ANNs learning capabilities to adaptively choose the power system parameters for both to compute the reference currents and to recharge the capacitor value requested by VDC voltage in order to ensure suitable transit of powers to supply the inverter. To investigate the performance of this identification method, the study has been accomplished using simulation with the MATLAB Simulink Power System Toolbox. The simulation study results of the new (SAPF) identification technique compared to other similar methods are found quite satisfactory by assuring good filtering characteristics and high system stability.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), p-q theory, (SAPF), Harmonics, Total Harmonic Distortion.

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Authors: Khaled Halimi, Hassina Seridi-Bouchelaghem

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The purpose of this paper is to describe how learning analytics approaches based on social semantic web techniques can be applied to enhance the lifelong learning experiences in a connectivist perspective. For this reason, a prototype of a system called SoLearn (Social Learning Environment) that supports this approach. We observed and studied literature related to lifelong learning systems, social semantic web and ontologies, connectivism theory, learning analytics approaches and reviewed implemented systems based on these fields to extract and draw conclusions about necessary features for enhancing the lifelong learning process. The semantic analytics of learning can be used for viewing, studying and analysing the massive data generated by learners, which helps them to understand through recommendations, charts and figures their learning and behaviour, and to detect where they have weaknesses or limitations. This paper emphasises that implementing a learning analytics approach based on social semantic web representations can enhance the learning process. From one hand, the analysis process leverages the meaning expressed by semantics presented in the ontology (relationships between concepts). From the other hand, the analysis process exploits the discovery of new knowledge by means of inferring mechanism of the semantic web.

Keywords: Connectivism, data visualization, informal learning, learning analytics, semantic web, social web.

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Authors: Yujie Zhang

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There are debates around the legitimacy of capital punishment, i.e., whether death could serve as a proper execution in our legal system or not. Different arguments have been raised. However, none of them seem able to provide a determined answer to the issue; this results in a lack of instruction in the legal practice. This article, therefore, devotes itself to the effort to find such an answer. It takes the perspective of rights, through interpreting the concept of right to life, which capital punishment appears to be in confliction with in the two traditional approaches, to reveal a possibly best account of the right and its conclusion on capital punishment. However, this effort is not a normative one which focuses on what ought to be. It means the article does not try to work out which argument we should choose and solve the hot debate on whether capital punishment should be allowed or not. It, again, does not propose which perspective we should take to approach this issue or generally which account of right must be better; rather, it is more a thought experiment. It attempts to raise a new perspective to approach the issue of the legitimacy of capital punishment. Both its perspective and conclusion therefore are tentative: what if we view this issue in a way we have never tried before, for example the different accounts of right to life? In this sense, the perspective could be defied, while the conclusion could be rejected. Other perspectives and conclusions are also possible. Notwithstanding, this tentative perspective and account of the right still could not be denied from serving as a potential approach, since it does have the ability to provide us with a determined attitude toward capital punishment that is hard to achieve through existing arguments.

Keywords: Capital punishment, right to life, theories of rights, the choice theory.

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Authors: Shang-En Yu

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Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.

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Authors: Vishal Awasthi, Krishna Raj

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Any digital processing performed on a signal with larger nyquist interval requires more computation than signal processing performed on smaller nyquist interval. The sampling rate alteration generates the unwanted effects in the system such as spectral aliasing and spectral imaging during signal processing. Multirate-multistage implementation of digital filter can result a significant computational saving than single rate filter designed for sample rate conversion. In this paper, we presented an efficient cascaded integrator comb (CIC) decimation filter that perform fast down sampling using signed digit adder algorithm with compensated frequency droop that arises due to aliasing effect during the decimation process. This proposed compensated CIC decimation filter structure with a hybrid signed digit (HSD) fast adder provide an improved performance in terms of down sampling speed by 65.15% than ripple carry adder (RCA) and reduced area and power by 57.5% and 0.01 % than signed digit (SD) adder algorithms respectively.

Keywords: Sampling rate conversion, Multirate Filtering, Compensation Theory, Decimation filter, CIC filter, Redundant signed digit arithmetic, Fast adders.

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Authors: M. Derakhshanfar, B. Minaei-Bidgoli

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Spatial trends are one of the valuable patterns in geo databases. They play an important role in data analysis and knowledge discovery from spatial data. A spatial trend is a regular change of one or more non spatial attributes when spatially moving away from a start object. Spatial trend detection is a graph search problem therefore heuristic methods can be good solution. Artificial immune system (AIS) is a special method for searching and optimizing. AIS is a novel evolutionary paradigm inspired by the biological immune system. The models based on immune system principles, such as the clonal selection theory, the immune network model or the negative selection algorithm, have been finding increasing applications in fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a novel immunological algorithm based on clonal selection algorithm (CSA) for spatial trend detection. We are created neighborhood graph and neighborhood path, then select spatial trends that their affinity is high for antibody. In an evolutionary process with artificial immune algorithm, affinity of low trends is increased with mutation until stop condition is satisfied.

Keywords: Spatial Data Mining, Spatial Trend Detection, Heuristic Methods, Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA)

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Authors: R. Taviv, A.C. Brent, H. Fortuin

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The Long-range Energy and Alternatives Planning (LEAP) energy planning system has been developed for South Africa, for the 2005 base year and a limited number of plausible future scenarios that may have significant implications (negative or positive) in terms of environmental impacts. The system quantifies the national energy demand for the domestic, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture sectors, the supply of electricity and liquid fuels, and the resulting emissions. The South African National Energy Research Institute (SANERI) identified the need to develop an environmental assessment tool, based on the LEAP energy planning system, to provide decision-makers and stakeholders with the necessary understanding of the environmental impacts associated with different energy scenarios. A comprehensive analysis of indicators that are used internationally and in South Africa was done and the available data was accessed to select a reasonable number of indicators that could be utilized in energy planning. A consultative process was followed to determine the needs of different stakeholders on the required indicators and also the most suitable form of reporting. This paper demonstrates the application of Energy Environmental Sustainability Indicators (EESIs) as part of the developed tool, which assists with the identification of the environmental consequences of energy generation and use scenarios and thereby promotes sustainability, since environmental considerations can then be integrated into the preparation and adoption of policies, plans, programs and projects. Recommendations are made to refine the tool further for South Africa.

Keywords: Energy modeling, LEAP, environmental impact, environmental indicators, energy sector emissions, sustainable development, South Africa

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Authors: A. Haddad, H. Kbab

Abstract:

A supersonic expansion cannot be achieved within a convergent-divergent nozzle if the flow velocity does not reach that of the sound at the throat. The computation of the flow field characteristics at the throat is thus essential to the nozzle developed thrust value and therefore to the aircraft or rocket it propels. Several approaches were developed in order to describe the transonic expansion, which takes place through the throat of a De-Laval convergent-divergent nozzle. They all allow reaching good results but showing a major shortcoming represented by their inability to describe the transonic flow field for nozzles having a small throat radius. The approach initially developed by Kliegel & Levine uses the velocity series development in terms of the normalized throat radius added to unity instead of solely the normalized throat radius or the traditional small disturbances theory approach. The present investigation carries out the application of these three approaches for different throat radiuses of curvature. The method using the normalized throat radius added to unity shows better results when applied to geometries integrating small throat radiuses.

Keywords: De-Laval nozzles, transonic calculations, transonic flow, supersonic nozzle.

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Authors: Mohammad Faisal

Abstract:

This paper investigates the relationship between state and business in the context of structural and institutional transformations in Indonesia following the collapse of the New Order regime in 1998. Since 1998, Indonesia has embarked on a shift from an authoritarian to democratic polity and from a centralised to a decentralised system of governance, transforming the country into the third largest democracy and one of the most decentralised states in the world. This paper examines whether the transformation of the Indonesian state has altered the pattern of state and business relations with focus on clientism and corruption as the key dependent variable, and probes how/to what extent this has changed as a result of the transformation and the ensuring shifts in business and state relations. Based on interviews with key government and business actors as well as prominent scholars in Indonesia, it is found that since the demise of the New Order, business associations in Indonesia have become more independent of state control and more influential in public decision-making whereas the government has become more responsive of business concerns and more committed to combat corruption and clientism. However, these changes have not necessarily rendered business people completely leave individualclientelistic relationship with the government, and simply pursue wider sectoral and business-wide collectivism as an alternative way of channelling their aspirations, which is expected to help reduce corruption and clientism in Indonesia. This paper concludes that democratisation and a more open politics may have helped reduce corruption and clientism in Indonesia through changes in government. However, it is still difficult to imply that such political transformation has fostered business collective action and a broader, more encompassing pattern of business lobbying and activism, which is expected to help reduce corruption and clientism.

Keywords: Business activism, business power, democratisation, clientism, corruption.

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Authors: G. Akgun, I. Algul, H. Kurtaran

Abstract:

In this paper geometrically nonlinear static behavior of laminated composite hollow super-elliptic beams is investigated using generalized differential quadrature method. Super-elliptic beam can have both oval and elliptic cross-sections by adjusting parameters in super-ellipse formulation (also known as Lamé curves). Equilibrium equations of super-elliptic beam are obtained using the virtual work principle. Geometric nonlinearity is taken into account using von-Kármán nonlinear strain-displacement relations. Spatial derivatives in strains are expressed with the generalized differential quadrature method. Transverse shear effect is considered through the first-order shear deformation theory. Static equilibrium equations are solved using Newton-Raphson method. Several composite super-elliptic beam problems are solved with the proposed method. Effects of layer orientations of composite material, boundary conditions, ovality and ellipticity on bending behavior are investigated.

Keywords: Generalized differential quadrature, geometric nonlinearity, laminated composite, super-elliptic cross-section.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data of the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as «signaling parameters» (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of COTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources, but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as rule. This report contains describing of the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems.

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