Search results for: 3D Morphable Face Shape Model

Authors: Dhongkyu Yoon

Abstract:

Environmental statistics reveals that the pollution of acid rain in South Korea is a serious issue. Yet the awareness of people is low. Even after a gradual decrease of pollutant emission in Korea, the acidity has not been reduced. There no boundaries in the atmosphere are set and the influence of the neighboring countries such as China is apparent. Governmental efforts among China, Japan and Korea have been made on this issue. However, not much progress has been observed. Along with the governmental activities, therefore, an active monitoring of the pollution among the countries and the promotion of environmental awareness at the civil level including especially the middle and high schools are highly recommended. It will be this young generation who will face damaged country as inheritance not the current generation.

Keywords: acid rain, international collaboration, pollution, South Korea

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Authors: Mohammed F. Haddad, Mohammad A. Albenayyan

Abstract:

Realistically, 3-D printing as a technology has not yet reached the required maturity level to handle construction housing projects for citizens on a country scale. However, potentially, it has all of the required elements for addressing this issue. There are two main high-level elements of this technology that need to be capitalized on in order for the technology to reach its full potential: technical and logistical. This paper aims to cover how 3-D printing can be a viable technical solution for housing projects and describes the impact of 3-D printing technical features on the logistical aspects of completing a housing project. Additionally, a perspective about 3-D printing in Saudi Arabia will be presented in order to give the reader an idea of where the Kingdom stands in the deployment of this technology. Finally, a glimpse will be given regarding the potential utilization of this technology for space applications.

Keywords: Large-scale 3-D printing, additive manufacturing, D-shape, contour crafting.

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Authors: Hyu Sang Jo, Gyo Woo Lee

Abstract:

In this study, the evaluation of thermal stability of the micrometer-sized silica particle reinforced epoxy composite was carried out through the measurement of thermal expansion coefficient and Young’s modulus of the specimens. For all the specimens in this study from the baseline to those containing 50 wt% silica filler, the thermal expansion coefficients and the Young’s moduli were gradually decreased down to 20% and increased up to 41%, respectively. The experimental results were compared with fillervolume- based simple empirical relations. The experimental results of thermal expansion coefficients correspond with those of Thomas’s model which is modified from the rule of mixture. However, the measured result for Young’s modulus tends to be increased slightly. The differences in increments of the moduli between experimental and numerical model data are quite large.

Keywords: Thermal Stability, Silica-Reinforced, Epoxy Composite, Coefficient of Thermal Expansion, Empirical Model.

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Authors: S. K. Fasogbon, T. M. Oladosu, O. S. Osasuyi

Abstract:

Plastic extrusion has been an important process of plastic production since 19^th century. Meanwhile, in plastic extrusion process, wide variation in temperature along the extrudate usually leads to scraps formation on the side of finished products. To avoid this situation, there is a need to deeply understand temperature distribution along the extrudate in plastic extrusion process. This work developed an analytical model that predicts the temperature distribution over the billet (the polymers melt) along the extrudate during extrusion process with the limitation that the polymer in question does not cover biopolymer such as DNA. The model was solved and simulated. Results for two different plastic materials (polyvinylchloride and polycarbonate) using self-developed MATLAB code and a commercially developed software (ANSYS) were generated and ultimately compared. It was observed that there is a thermodynamic heat transfer from the entry level of the billet into the die down to the end of it. The graph plots indicate a natural exponential decay of temperature with time and along the die length, with the temperature being 413 K and 474 K for polyvinylchloride and polycarbonate respectively at the entry level and 299.3 K and 328.8 K at the exit when the temperature of the surrounding was 298 K. The extrusion model was validated by comparison of MATLAB code simulation with a commercially available ANSYS simulation and the results favourably agree. This work concludes that the developed mathematical model and the self-generated MATLAB code are reliable tools in predicting temperature distribution along the extrudate in plastic extrusion process.

Keywords: ANSYS, extrusion process, MATLAB, plastic making, thermal analysis.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

By incorporating a prey refuge, this paper proposes new discrete Leslie–Gower predator–prey systems with and without Allee effect. The existence of fixed points are established and the stability of fixed points are discussed by analyzing the modulus of characteristic roots.

Keywords: Leslie-Gower, predator–prey model, prey refuge, allee effect.

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Authors: Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang, Le Linh

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The fractional–order proportional integral (FOPI) controller tuning rules based on the fractional calculus for the cascade control system are systematically proposed in this paper. Accordingly, the ideal controller is obtained by using internal model control (IMC) approach for both the inner and outer loops, which gives the desired closed-loop responses. On the basis of the fractional calculus, the analytical tuning rules of FOPI controller for the inner loop can be established in the frequency domain. Besides, the outer loop is tuned by using any integer PI/PID controller tuning rules in the literature. The simulation study is considered for the stable process model and the results demonstrate the simplicity, flexibility, and effectiveness of the proposed method for the cascade control system in compared with the other methods.

Keywords: Fractional calculus, fractional–order proportional integral controller, cascade control system, internal model control approach.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, Y. Chiang, W. Y. Li, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

Abstract:

The dry-storage systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan have become one of the major safety concerns. There are two steps considered in this study. The first step is the verification of the TRACE by using VSC-17 experimental data. The results of TRACE were similar to the VSC-17 data. It indicates that TRACE has the respectable accuracy in the simulation and analysis of the dry-storage systems. The next step is the application of TRACE in the dry-storage system of Kuosheng NPP (BWR/6). Kuosheng NPP is the second BWR NPP of Taiwan Power Company. In order to solve the storage of the spent fuels, Taiwan Power Company developed the new dry-storage system for Kuosheng NPP. In this step, the dry-storage system model of Kuosheng NPP was established by TRACE. Then, the steady state simulation of this model was performed and the results of TRACE were compared with the Kuosheng NPP data. Finally, this model was used to perform the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP dry-storage system. Besides, FRAPTRAN was used tocalculate the transient performance of fuel rods.

Keywords: BWR, TRACE, FRAPTRAN, Dry-Storage.

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Authors: Alireza Fereidooni, Kamran Behdinan, Zouheir Fawaz

Abstract:

The integral form of equations of motion of composite beams subjected to varying time loads are discretized using a developed finite element model. The model consists of a straight five node twenty-two degrees of freedom beam element. The stability analysis of the beams is studied by solving the matrix form characteristic equations of the system. The principle of virtual work and the first order shear deformation theory are employed to analyze the beams with large deformation and small strains. The regions of dynamic instability of the beam are determined by solving the obtained Mathieu form of differential equations. The effects of nonconservative loads, shear stiffness, and damping parameters on stability and response of the beams are examined. Several numerical calculations are presented to compare the results with data reported by other researchers.

Keywords: Finite element beam model, Composite Beams, stability analysis

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Authors: M.O. Makhmalbaf, M. GhanooniBagha, M.A. Tutunchian, M. Zabihi Samani

Abstract:

In this paper first, Two buildings have been modeled and then analyzed using nonlinear static analysis method under two different conditions in Nonlinear SAP 2000 software. In the first condition the interaction of soil adjacent to the walls of basement are ignored while in the second case this interaction have been modeled using Gap elements of nonlinear SAP2000 software. Finally, comparing the results of two models, the effects of soil-structure on period, target point displacement, internal forces, shape deformations and base shears have been studied. According to the results, this interaction has always increased the base shear of buildings, decreased the period of structure and target point displacement, and often decreased the internal forces and displacements.

Keywords: Seismic Rehabilitation, Soil-Structure Interaction, Short Structure, Nonlinear Static Analysis.

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Authors: Md Rashadul Islam, Mesbah U. Ahmed, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

Abstract:

This study evaluates the back calculation of stiffness of a pavement section on Interstate 40 (I-40)in New Mexico through numerical analysis. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test has been conducted on a section on I-40. Layer stiffness of the pavement has been backcalculated by a backcalculation software, ELMOD, using the FWD test data. Commercial finite element software, ABAQUS, has been used to develop the Finite Element Model (FEM) of this pavement section. Geometry and layer thickness are collected from field coring. Input parameters i.e. stiffnesses of different layers of the pavement are used as the backcalculated ones. Resulting surface deflections at different radial distances from the FEM analysis are compared with field FWD deflection values. It shows close agreement between the FEM and FWD outputs. Therefore, the FWD test method can be considered to be a reliable test procedure for evaluating the in situ stiffness of pavement material.

Keywords: Falling weight deflectometer test, Finite element model, Flexible pavement, moduli, surface deflection.

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Authors: N. Tadrisi Parsa, A. R. Vali, R. Ghasemi

Abstract:

Diabetes is a growing health problem in worldwide. Especially, the patients with Type 1 diabetes need strict glycemic control because they have deficiency of insulin production. This paper attempts to control blood glucose based on body mathematical body model. The Bergman minimal mathematical model is used to develop the nonlinear controller. A novel back-stepping based sliding mode control (B-SMC) strategy is proposed as a solution that guarantees practical tracking of a desired glucose concentration. In order to show the performance of the proposed design, it is compared with conventional linear and fuzzy controllers which have been done in previous researches. The numerical simulation result shows the advantages of sliding mode back stepping controller design to linear and fuzzy controllers.

Keywords: Back stepping, Bergman Model, Nonlinear control, Sliding mode control.

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Authors: M. Sharanreddy, P. K. Kulkarni

Abstract:

Brain tumor is inherently serious and life-threatening disease. Brain tumor builds the intracranial pressure in the brain, by shifting the brain or pushing against the skull, and also damaging nerves and healthy brain tissues. This intracranial pressure affects and interferes with normal brain functionality, which results in generation of abnormal electrical activities from brain. With recent development in the medical engineering and instruments, EEG instruments are able to record the brain electric activities with high accuracy, which establishes EEG as a primary tool for diagnosing the brain abnormalities. Research scholars and general physicians, often face difficulty in understanding EEG patterns. This paper presents the EEG patterns associated with brain tumor by combing medicine theory and neurologist experience. Paper also explains the pros-cons of the EEG based brain tumor identification.

Keywords: Brain tumor, Electroencephalogram (EEG).

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Authors: Roland S. Nattermann, Reiner Anderl

Abstract:

Existing proceeding-models for the development of mechatronic systems provide a largely parallel action in the detailed development. This parallel approach is to take place also largely independent of one another in the various disciplines involved. An approach for a new proceeding-model provides a further development of existing models to use for the development of Adaptronic Systems. This approach is based on an intermediate integration and an abstract modeling of the adaptronic system. Based on this system-model a simulation of the global system behavior, due to external and internal factors or Forces is developed. For the intermediate integration a special data management system is used. According to the presented approach this data management system has a number of functions that are not part of the "normal" PDM functionality. Therefore a concept for a new data management system for the development of Adaptive system is presented in this paper. This concept divides the functions into six layers. In the first layer a system model is created, which divides the adaptronic system based on its components and the various technical disciplines. Moreover, the parameters and properties of the system are modeled and linked together with the requirements and the system model. The modeled parameters and properties result in a network which is analyzed in the second layer. From this analysis necessary adjustments to individual components for specific manipulation of the system behavior can be determined. The third layer contains an automatic abstract simulation of the system behavior. This simulation is a precursor for network analysis and serves as a filter. By the network analysis and simulation changes to system components are examined and necessary adjustments to other components are calculated. The other layers of the concept treat the automatic calculation of system reliability, the "normal" PDM-functionality and the integration of discipline-specific data into the system model. A prototypical implementation of an appropriate data management with the addition of an automatic system development is being implemented using the data management system ENOVIA SmarTeam V5 and the simulation system MATLAB.

Keywords: Adaptronic, Data-Management, LOEWE-CentreAdRIA

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Authors: S. Sowmyayani, P. Arockia Jansi Rani

Abstract:

Fall detection is one of the challenging problems in elderly care system. The objective of this paper is to identify falls in elderly care system. In this paper, an efficient fall detection method is proposed to identify falls using correlation factor and Motion History Image (MHI). The proposed method is tested on URF (University of Rzeszow Fall detection) dataset and evaluated with some efficient measures like sensitivity, specificity, precision and classification accuracy. It is compared with other recent methods. The experimental results substantially proved that the proposed method achieves 1.5% higher sensitivity when compared to other methods.

Keywords: Pearson correlation coefficient, motion history image, human shape identification.

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Authors: S.B. Ahmadi, Z. Moradpour, Gh. Liaghat

Abstract:

In this article the accumulated results out of the effects and length of the manufacture and production projects in the university and research standard have been settled with the usefulness definition of the process of project management for the accessibility to the proportional pattern in the “time and action" stages. Studies show that many problems confronted by the researchers in these projects are connected to the non-profiting of: 1) autonomous timing for gathering the educational theme, 2) autonomous timing for planning and pattern, presenting before the construction, and 3) autonomous timing for manufacture and sample presentation from the output. The result of this study indicates the division of every manufacture and production projects into three smaller autonomous projects from its kind, budget and autonomous expenditure, shape and order of the stages for the management of these kinds of projects. In this case study real result are compared with theoretical results.

Keywords: Project management, Manufacturing, production.

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Authors: N. M. Thao, I. Dolguntseva, M. Leijon

Abstract:

Flow blockages referring to the increase in flow are being considered as a vital equipment for marine current energy conversion. However, the shape of these devices will result in extracted energy under the operation. The present work investigates the effect of two configurations of a grating, convergent and divergent that located upstream, to the water flow velocity. The flow characteristics are studied by Computational Fluid Dynamic simulation by using the ANSYS Fluent solver for these specified arrangements of the grating. The results indicate that distinguished characteristics of flow velocity between “convergent” and “divergent” grating placements is up to 10% in confined conditions. Furthermore, the velocity in case of convergent grating is higher than that of divergent grating.

Keywords: Marine current energy, marine current energy converter, turbine grating, RANS simulation, water flow velocity.

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Authors: F. Hadjaj, A. Belghachi, A. Halmaoui, M. Belhadj, H. Mazouz

Abstract:

A laser is essentially an optical oscillator consisting of a resonant cavity, an amplifying medium and a pumping source. In semiconductor diode lasers, the cavity is created by the boundary between the cleaved face of the semiconductor crystal and air, and has reflective properties as a result of the differing refractive indices of the two media. For a GaAs-air interface a reflectance of 0.3 is typical and therefore the length of the semiconductor junction forms the resonant cavity. To prevent light being emitted in unwanted directions from the junction, sides perpendicular to the required direction are roughened. The objective of this work is to simulate the optical resonator Fabry-Perot and explore its main characteristics, such as FSR, finesse, linewidth, transmission and so on, that describe the performance of resonator.

Keywords: Fabry-Perot Resonator, laser diode.

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Authors: M. A. Islam, P. J. Hazell, J. P. Escobedo, M. Saadatfar

Abstract:

Metallic foams have good potential for lightweight structures for impact and blast mitigation. Therefore it is important to find out the optimized foam structure (i.e. cell size, shape, relative density, and distribution) to maximise energy absorption. In this paper, quasistatic compression and microstructural characterization of closed-cell aluminium foams of different pore size and cell distributions have been carried out. We present results for two different aluminium metal foams of density 0.49-0.51 g/cc and 0.31- 0.34 g/cc respectively that have been tested in quasi-static compression. The influence of cell geometry and cell topology on quasistatic compression behaviour has been investigated using optical microscope and computed tomography (micro-CT) analysis. It is shown that the deformation is not uniform in the structure and collapse begins at the weakest point.

Keywords: Metal foams, micro-CT, cell topology, quasistatic compression.

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Authors: J. F. Arthur, R. M. Hodge

Abstract:

The Defence Materials Technology Centre has evolved from the Australian Cooperative Research Centres Program. The Centre receives funding from Government, industry and research sources to fund collaborative research within its participant organisations. The research centre is structured as a company with a small administrative staff and plays the role of the “honest broker” within the collaboration. A corporate culture has been established that is pervasive into the research projects are undertaken. The model is an effective mechanism to deliver outcomes to each of the participant stakeholders.

Keywords: Collaboration, Research Centre.

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Authors: Thassanant Unnanantn, Suttipong Boonphadung

Abstract:

This research study aimed to survey and analyze the attitudes of pre-service teachers’ the analytical thinking development based on Miller’s Model. The informants of this study were 22 third year teacher students majoring in Thai. The course where the instruction was conducted was English for Academic Purposes in Thai Language 2. The instrument of this research was an open-ended questionnaire with two dimensions of questions: academic and satisfaction dimensions. The investigation revealed the positive attitudes. In the academic dimension, the majority of 12 (54.54%), the highest percentage, reflected that the method of teaching analytical thinking and language simultaneously was their new knowledge and the similar percentage also belonged to text cohesion in writing. For the satisfaction, the highest frequency count was from 17 of them (77.27%) and this majority favored the openness or friendliness of the teacher.

Keywords: Analytical thinking development, Attitudes, Miller’s Model, Pre-service teachers.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

A new mathematical model for calculating the temperature field of the profile part of the cooled blades of gas turbines is developed. The theoretical substantiation of the method is based on the application of the method of potential theory (the method of boundary integral equations). The effectiveness of the implementation of the developed mathematical model is confirmed on the basis of a computational experiment.

Keywords: Modeling of temperature fields, gas turbine blades, integral methods, cooled blades, gas turbines.

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Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

Abstract:

Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: Spinal deformity, picture evaluation, moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, moiré topography.

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Authors: Saeid Norouzi, Ali Shams, Hassan Farhangi, Alireza Darvish

Abstract:

Hot tear cracking and residual stress are two different consequences of thermal stress both of which can be considered as casting problem. The purpose of the present study is simulation of the effect of casting shape characteristic on hot tearing and residual stress. This study shows that the temperature range for simulation of hot tearing and residual stress are different. In this study, in order to study the development of thermal stress and to predict the hot tearing and residual stress of shaped casting, MAGMASOFT simulation program was used. The strategy of this research was the prediction of hot tear location using pinpointing hot spot and thermal stress concentration zones. The results shows that existing of stress concentration zone increases the hot tearing probability and consequently reduces the amount of remaining residual stress in casting parts.

Keywords: Hot tearing, residual stress, simulation, investment casting.

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Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

Abstract:

We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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Authors: Shahad Nagoor, Lucy Hederman, Kevin Koidl, Annalina Caputo

Abstract:

Doctors’ notes reflect their impressions, attitudes, clinical sense, and opinions about patients’ conditions and progress, and other information that is essential for doctors’ daily clinical decisions. Despite their value, clinical notes are insufficiently researched within the language processing community. Automatically extracting information from unstructured text data is known to be a difficult task as opposed to dealing with structured information such as physiological vital signs, images and laboratory results. The aim of this research is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and machine learning techniques applied to clinician notes can assist in doctors’ decision making in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. The hypothesis is that clinical outcomes like survival or mortality can be useful to influence the judgement of clinical sentiment in ICU clinical notes. This paper presents two contributions: first, we introduce COVID_ICU_BERT, a fine-tuned version of a clinical transformer model that can reliably predict clinical sentiment for notes of COVID patients in ICU. We train the model on clinical notes for COVID-19 patients, ones not previously seen by Bio_ClinicalBERT or Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT. The model which was based on Bio_ClinicalBERT achieves higher predictive accuracy than the one based on Bio_Discharge_Summary_BERT (Acc 93.33%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.96). Second, we perform data augmentation using clinical contextual word embedding that is based on a pre-trained clinical model to balance the samples in each class in the data (survived vs. deceased patients). Data augmentation improves the accuracy of prediction slightly (Acc 96.67%, AUC 0.98, and Precision 0.92).

Keywords: BERT fine-tuning, clinical sentiment, COVID-19, data augmentation.

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Authors: R. O. Santos, L. P. Moreira, M. C. Cardoso

Abstract:

Spacer grid assembly supporting the nuclear fuel rods is an important concern in the design of structural components of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The spacer grid is composed by springs and dimples which are formed from a strip sheet by means of blanking and stamping processes. In this paper, the blanking process and tooling parameters are evaluated by means of a 2D plane-strain finite element model in order to evaluate the punch load and quality of the sheared edges of Inconel 718 strips used for nuclear spacer grids. A 3D finite element model is also proposed to predict the tooling loads resulting from the stamping process of a preformed Inconel 718 strip and to analyse the residual stress effects upon the spring and dimple design geometries of a nuclear spacer grid.

Keywords: Blanking process, damage model, finite element modelling, Inconel 718, spacer grids, stamping process.

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Authors: Zuraida Alwadood, Adibah Shuib, Norlida Abd Hamid

Abstract:

This paper presents the review of past studies concerning mathematical models for rescheduling passenger railway services, as part of delay management in the occurrence of railway disruption. Many past mathematical models highlighted were aimed at minimizing the service delays experienced by passengers during service disruptions. Integer programming (IP) and mixed-integer programming (MIP) models are critically discussed, focusing on the model approach, decision variables, sets and parameters. Some of them have been tested on real-life data of railway companies worldwide, while a few have been validated on fictive data. Based on selected literatures on train rescheduling, this paper is able to assist researchers in the model formulation by providing comprehensive analyses towards the model building. These analyses would be able to help in the development of new approaches in rescheduling strategies or perhaps to enhance the existing rescheduling models and make them more powerful or more applicable with shorter computing time.

Keywords: Mathematical modelling, Mixed-integer programming, Railway rescheduling, Service delays.

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Authors: Majid Riahi Samani, Seyed Mehdi Borghei

Abstract:

Absorptive characteristics of polyaniline synthesized in mixture of water and acetonitrile in 50/50 volume ratio was studied. Synthesized polyaniline in powder shape is used as an adsorbent to remove toxic hexavalent chromium from aqueous solutions. Experiments were conducted in batch mode with different variables such as agitation time, solution pH and initial concentration of hexavalent chromium. Removal mechanism is the combination of surface adsorption and reduction. The equilibrium time for removal of Cr(T) and Cr(VI) was about 2 and 10 minutes respectively. The optimum pH for total chromium removal occurred at pH 7 and maximum hexavalent chromium removal took place under acidic condition at pH 3. Investigating the isothermal characteristics showed that the equilibrium adsorption data fitted both Freundlich-s and Langmuir-s isotherms. The maximum adsorption of chromium was calculated 36.1 mg/g for polyaniline

Keywords: Polyaniline, Chromium, acetonitrile, Adsorption

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Authors: M. S. Gaafar, S. Y. Marzouk, I. S. Mahmoud, S. Al-Zobaidi

Abstract:

Makishima and Mackenzie model was used to simulation of acoustic properties (longitudinal and shear ultrasonic wave velocities, elastic moduli theoretically for many tellurite and borate glasses. The model was proposed mainly depending on the values of the experimentally measured density, which are obtained before. In this search work, we are trying to obtain the values of densities of amorphous glasses (as the density depends on the geometry of the network structure of these glasses). In addition, the problem of simulating the slope of linear regression between the experimentally determined bulk modulus and the product of packing density and experimental Young's modulus, were solved in this search work. The results showed good agreement between the experimentally measured values of densities and both ultrasonic wave velocities, and those theoretically determined.

Keywords: Glasses, ultrasonic wave velocities, elastic moduli, Makishima and Mackenzie model.

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Authors: Krisada Lekdee, Sunee Sammatat, Nittaya Boonsit

Abstract:

This paper proposes a GLMM with spatial and temporal effects for malaria data in Thailand. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling MCMC. A conditional autoregressive (CAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. The temporal correlation is presented through the covariance matrix of the random effects. The malaria quarterly data have been extracted from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand. The factors considered are rainfall and temperature. The result shows that rainfall and temperature are positively related to the malaria morbidity rate. The posterior means of the estimated morbidity rates are used to construct the malaria maps. The top 5 highest morbidity rates (per 100,000 population) are in Trat (Q3, 111.70), Chiang Mai (Q3, 104.70), Narathiwat (Q4, 97.69), Chiang Mai (Q2, 88.51), and Chanthaburi (Q3, 86.82). According to the DIC criterion, the proposed model has a better performance than the GLMM with spatial effects but without temporal terms.

Keywords: Bayesian method, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), malaria, spatial effects, temporal correlation.

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