Search results for: Financial Information.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4432

Search results for: Financial Information.

4222 The Impact of the Interest Rates on Investments in the Context of Financial Crisis

Authors: Joanna Stawska

Abstract:

The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: Central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments.

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4221 Investigating the Effect of Refinancing on Financial Behavior of Energy Efficiency Projects

Authors: Zohreh Soltani, Seyedmohammadhossein Hosseinian

Abstract:

Reduction of energy consumption in built infrastructure, through the installation of energy-efficient technologies, is a major approach to achieving sustainability. In practice, the viability of energy efficiency projects strongly depends on the cost reimbursement and profitability. These projects are subject to failure if the actual cost savings do not reimburse the project cost promptly. In such cases, refinancing could be a solution to benefit from the long-term returns of the project, if implemented wisely. However, very little is still known about the effect of refinancing options on financial performance of energy efficiency projects. In order to fill this gap, the present study investigates the financial behavior of energy efficiency projects with focus on refinancing options, such as Leveraged Loans. A System Dynamics (SD) model is introduced, and the model application is presented using an actual case-study data. The case study results indicate that while high-interest start-ups make using Leveraged Loan inevitable, refinancing can rescue the project and bring about profitability. This paper also presents some managerial implications of refinancing energy efficiency projects based on the case-study analysis. Results of this study help to implement financially viable energy efficiency projects so that the community could benefit from their environmental advantages widely.

Keywords: Energy efficiency projects, leveraged loan, refinancing, sustainability.

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4220 A High Bitrate Information Hiding Algorithm for Video in Video

Authors: Wang Shou-Dao, Xiao Chuang-Bai, Lin Yu

Abstract:

In high bitrate information hiding techniques, 1 bit is embedded within each 4 x 4 Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) coefficient block by means of vector quantization, then the hidden bit can be effectively extracted in terminal end. In this paper high bitrate information hiding algorithms are summarized, and the scheme of video in video is implemented. Experimental result shows that the host video which is embedded numerous auxiliary information have little visually quality decline. Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR)Y of host video only degrades 0.22dB in average, while the hidden information has a high percentage of survives and keeps a high robustness in H.264/AVC compression, the average Bit Error Rate(BER) of hiding information is 0.015%.

Keywords: Information Hiding, Embed, Quantification, Extract

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4219 ISCS (Information Security Check Service) for the Safety and Reliability of Communications

Authors: Jong-Whoi Shin, Jin-Tae Lee, Sang-Soo Jang, Jae-II Lee

Abstract:

Recent widespread use of information and communication technology has greatly changed information security risks that businesses and institutions encounter. Along with this situation, in order to ensure security and have confidence in electronic trading, it has become important for organizations to take competent information security measures to provide international confidence that sensitive information is secure. Against this backdrop, the approach to information security checking has come to an important issue, which is believed to be common to all countries. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the new system of information security checking program in Korea and to propose synthetic information security countermeasures under domestic circumstances in order to protect physical equipment, security management and technology, and the operation of security check for securing services on ISP(Internet Service Provider), IDC(Internet Data Center), and e-commerce(shopping malls, etc.)

Keywords: Information Security Check Service, safety criteria, object enterpriser.

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4218 Evaluation Method for Information Security Levels of CIIP (Critical Information Infrastructure Protection)

Authors: Soon-Tai Park, Jong-Whoi Shin, Bog-Ki Min, Ik-Sub Lee, Gang-Shin Lee, Jae-Il Lee

Abstract:

As the information age matures, major social infrastructures such as communication, finance, military and energy, have become ever more dependent on information communication systems. And since these infrastructures are connected to the Internet, electronic intrusions such as hacking and viruses have become a new security threat. Especially, disturbance or neutralization of a major social infrastructure can result in extensive material damage and social disorder. To address this issue, many nations around the world are researching and developing various techniques and information security policies as a government-wide effort to protect their infrastructures from newly emerging threats. This paper proposes an evaluation method for information security levels of CIIP (Critical Information Infrastructure Protection), which can enhance the security level of critical information infrastructure by checking the current security status and establish security measures accordingly to protect infrastructures effectively.

Keywords: Information Security Evaluation Methodology, Critical Information Infrastructure Protection.

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4217 The Role of Online Videos in Undergraduate Casual-Leisure Information Behaviors

Authors: Nei-Ching Yeh

Abstract:

This study describes undergraduate casual-leisure information behaviors relevant to online videos. Diaries and in-depth interviews were used to collect data. Twenty-four undergraduates participated in this study (9 men, 15 women; all were aged 18–22 years). This study presents a model of casual-leisure information behaviors and contributes new insights into user experience in casual-leisure settings, such as online video programs, with implications for other information domains.

Keywords: Casual-leisure information behaviors, information behavior, online videos, role.

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4216 Corporate Governance Networks and Interlocking Directorates in the Czech Republic

Authors: Ondřej Nowak

Abstract:

This paper presents an exploration into the structure of the corporate governance network and interlocking directorates in the Czech Republic. First a literature overview and a basic terminology of the network theory is presented. Further in the text, statistics and other calculations relevant to corporate governance networks are presented. For this purpose an empirical data set consisting of 2 906 joint stock companies in the Czech Republic was examined. Industries with the highest average number of interlocks per company were healthcare, and energy and utilities. There is no observable link between the financial performance of the company and the number of its interlocks. Also interlocks with financial companies are very rare.

Keywords: Corporate Governance, Interlocking Directorates, Network Theory, Czech Republic.

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4215 Nonstationarity Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series

Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: Stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series.

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4214 Accounting Performance of the Leading Companies in the Construction Sector in Brazil during the Period 2009-2012

Authors: Fabrício José Piacente, Vanessa de Cillos Silva, Thigo Luiz Mello Melato

Abstract:

The construction industry has been demonstrating increased growth and importance in Brazil’s national economic development. This study aims to evaluate the financial performance of the leading companies in the construction sector in Brazil in the period from 2009 to 2012. An analysis is made of the capital structure, liquidity, and profitability of the six largest companies in the construction sector in Brazil: Brookfield, Cyrela, Gafisa, MRV, PDG and Rossi. The results are then compared with standard industry ratios. It was found that among the companies analyzed, MRV and Cyrela showed the best relative performance in the period under consideration.

Keywords: Accounting ratios, construction, financial performance.

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4213 Business Diversification Strategies in the Italian Energy Markets

Authors: F. Di Pillo, G. Capece, L. Cricelli, N. Levialdi

Abstract:

The liberalization and privatization processes have forced public utility companies to face new competitive challenges, implementing strategies to gain market share and, at the same time, keep the old customers. To this end, many companies have carried out mergers, acquisitions and conglomerations in order to diversify their business. This paper focuses on companies operating in the free energy market in Italy. In the last decade, this sector has undergone profound changes that have radically changed the competitive scenario and have led companies to implement diversification strategies of the business. Our work aims to evaluate the economic and financial performances obtained by energy companies, following the beginning of the liberalization process, verifying the possible relationship with the implemented diversification strategies.

Keywords: Business diversification strategies, M&A, the Italian energy market liberalization, economic and financial performances.

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4212 Improve of Evaluation Method for Information Security Levels of CIIP (Critical Information Infrastructure Protection)

Authors: Dong-Young Yoo, Jong-Whoi Shin, Gang Shin Lee, Jae-Il Lee

Abstract:

As the disfunctions of the information society and social development progress, intrusion problems such as malicious replies, spam mail, private information leakage, phishing, and pharming, and side effects such as the spread of unwholesome information and privacy invasion are becoming serious social problems. Illegal access to information is also becoming a problem as the exchange and sharing of information increases on the basis of the extension of the communication network. On the other hand, as the communication network has been constructed as an international, global system, the legal response against invasion and cyber-attack from abroad is facing its limit. In addition, in an environment where the important infrastructures are managed and controlled on the basis of the information communication network, such problems pose a threat to national security. Countermeasures to such threats are developed and implemented on a yearly basis to protect the major infrastructures of information communication. As a part of such measures, we have developed a methodology for assessing the information protection level which can be used to establish the quantitative object setting method required for the improvement of the information protection level.

Keywords: Information Security Evaluation Methodology, Critical Information Infrastructure Protection.

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4211 Characteristics of Corporate Social Responsibility Indicators

Authors: Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Ioannis Theotokas

Abstract:

The aim of the study is to investigate a number of characteristics of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) indicators that should be adopted by CSR assessment methodologies. For the purpose of this paper, a survey among the Greek companies that belong to FTSE 20 in Athens Exchange (FTSE/Athex-20) has been conducted, as these companies are expected to pioneer in the field of CSR. The results show consensus as regards the characteristics of indicators such as the need for the adoption of general and specific sector indicators, financial and non-financial indicators, the origin and the weight rate. However, the results are contradictory concerning the appropriate number of indicators for the assessment of CSR and the unit of measurement. Finally, the company-s sector is a more important dimension of CSR than the size and the country where the company operates. The purpose of this paper is to standardize the main characteristics of CSR indicators.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, Greece, Indicators

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4210 Information Technologies in Automotive Assembly Industry in Thailand

Authors: Jirarat Teeravaraprug, Usawadee Inklay

Abstract:

This paper gave an attempt in prioritizing information  technologies that organizations should give concentration. The case  study was organizations in the automotive assembly industry in  Thailand. Data were first collected to gather all information  technologies known and used in the automotive assembly industry in  Thailand. Five experts from the industries were surveyed based on  the concept of fuzzy DEMATEL. The information technologies were  categorized into six groups, which were communication, transaction,  planning, organization management, warehouse management, and  transportation. The cause groups of information technologies for each  group were analyzed and presented. Moreover, the relationship  between the used and the significant information technologies was  given. Discussions based on the used information technologies and  the research results are given.

 

Keywords: Information technology, automotive assembly industry, fuzzy DEMATEL.

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4209 An Exploratory Study Regarding the Effects of Auditor Switch, Auditee’s Industry, and Auditee’s Location on Audit Fees in Australia

Authors: Ashkan Mirzay Fashami

Abstract:

This study examines the effects of auditor switch, auditee’s industry, and auditee’s location on audit fees in Australia. It uses fee data of Australian Securities Exchange 500 companies, considering all industry classifications throughout the country from 2006 until 2016. Main findings show that auditor switch does not affect audit fees. However, auditee’s industry affects audit fees. This effect occurs in information technology, financials, energy, and materials sectors among the top 500 companies. Financials, energy, and materials sectors face a fee rise, whereas information technology has a fee cut. The extent of fee changes is different among various industries, wherein the financial sector has the highest increase. Further, auditee’s location affects audit fees. Top 500 companies in Hobart, Perth, and Brisbane face a fee reduction, wherein the highest cut is in Hobart. Further analysis suggests that the Australian audit market is being increasingly concentrated in the hands of the Big Four audit firms.

Keywords: Audit fee, auditor switch, Australia, industry, location.

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4208 Cultural Effects on the Performance of Non- Profit and For-Profit Microfinance Institutions

Authors: Patrick M. Stanton, William R. McCumber

Abstract:

Using a large dataset of more than 2,400 individual microfinance institutions (MFIs) from 120 countries from 1999 to 2016, this study finds that nearly half of the international MFIs operate as for-profit institutions. Formal institutions (business regulatory environment, property rights, social protection, and a developed financial sector) impact the likelihood of MFIs being for-profit across countries. Cultural differences across countries (power distance, individualism, masculinity, and indulgence) seem to be a factor in the legal status of the MFI (non-profit or for-profit). MFIs in countries with stronger formal institutions, a greater degree of power distance, and a higher degree of collectivism experience better financial and social performance.

Keywords: Hofstede cultural dimensions, international finance, microfinance institutions, non-profit.

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4207 Exploring DeFi Through Three Case Studies: Transparency, Social Impact and Regulation

Authors: Dhaksha Vivekanandan

Abstract:

DeFi is a network that avoids reliance on financial intermediaries through its peer-to-peer financial network. DeFi operates outside of government control; hence, it is important for us to understand its impacts. This study employs a literature review to understand DeFi and its emergence, as well as its implications on transparency, social impact, and regulation. Further, three case studies are analysed within the context of these categories. DeFi’s provision of increased transparency poses environmental and storage costs and can lead to user privacy being endangered. DeFi allows for the provision of entrepreneurial incentives and protection against monetary censorship and capital control. Despite DeFi's transparency issues and volatility costs, it has huge potential to reduce poverty; however, regulation surrounding DeFi still requires further tightening by governments.

Keywords: DeFi, transparency, regulation, social impact.

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4206 Managing the Information System Life Cycle in Construction and Manufacturing

Authors: Carlos J. Costa, Manuela Aparício

Abstract:

In this paper we present the information life cycle and analyze the importance of managing the corporate application portfolio across this life cycle. The approach presented here corresponds not just to the extension of the traditional information system development life cycle. This approach is based in the generic life cycle. In this paper it is proposed a model of an information system life cycle, supported in the assumption that a system has a limited life. But, this limited life may be extended. This model is also applied in several cases; being reported here two examples of the framework application in a construction enterprise and in a manufacturing enterprise.

Keywords: Information systems/technology, information systems life cycle, organization engineering, information economics.

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4205 Accounting for SMEs – How Important is Size in Choosing between Global and Local Standards?

Authors: Cătălin Nicolae Albu, Nadia Albu, Maria Mădălina Gîrbină

Abstract:

There is limited evidence from various countries about the possible impact of various criteria to be used to determine the scope of the IFRS for SMEs issued in 2009 and, research is needed in this area. We provide evidence from Romania, an emerging economy member of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to analyze in a local setting if size is a relevant factor for deciding between local and global standards for SMEs. Our results indicate that size is a moderate indicator of the existence of possible users interested in financial statements and that there is a difference between the scopes of the standard determined on various criteria.. Also, we suggest that the international exposure is quite reduced in the case of SMEs, but is sufficient to suggest that at least some SMEs would benefit from international comparability of financial statements

Keywords: SMEs, IFRS for SMEs, accounting regulation, entity's size.

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4204 Developing a Viral Artifact to Improve Employees’ Security Behavior

Authors: Stefan Bauer, Josef Frysak

Abstract:

According to the scientific information management literature, the improper use of information technology (e.g. personal computers) by employees are one main cause for operational and information security loss events. Therefore, organizations implement information security awareness programs to increase employees’ awareness to further prevention of loss events. However, in many cases these information security awareness programs consist of conventional delivery methods like posters, leaflets, or internal messages to make employees aware of information security policies. We assume that a viral information security awareness video might be more effective medium than conventional methods commonly used by organizations. The purpose of this research is to develop a viral video artifact to improve employee security behavior concerning information technology.

Keywords: Information Security Awareness, Delivery Methods, Viral Videos, Employee Security Behavior.

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4203 A Multi-Attribute Utility Model for Performance Evaluation of Sustainable Banking

Authors: Sonia Rebai, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez, Dhafer Saidane

Abstract:

In this study, we develop a performance evaluation model based on a multi-attribute utility approach aiming at reaching the sustainable banking (SB) status. This model is built accounting for various banks’ stakeholders in a win-win paradigm. In addition, it offers the opportunity for adopting a global measure of performance as an indication of a bank’s sustainability degree. This measure is referred to as banking sustainability performance index (BSPI). This index may constitute a basis for ranking banks. Moreover, it may constitute a bridge between the assessment types of financial and extra-financial rating agencies. A real application is performed on three French banks.

Keywords: Multi-attribute utility theory, Performance, Sustainable banking.

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4202 Research and Development of Net-Centric Information Sharing Platform

Authors: Xiaoqing Wang, Fang Youyuan, Zheng Yanxing, Gu Tianyang, Zong Jianjian, Tong Jinrong

Abstract:

Compared with traditional distributed environment, the net-centric environment brings on more demanding challenges for information sharing with the characteristics of ultra-large scale and strong distribution, dynamic, autonomy, heterogeneity, redundancy. This paper realizes an information sharing model and a series of core services, through which provides an open, flexible and scalable information sharing platform.

Keywords: Net-centric environment, Information sharing, Metadata registry and catalog, Cross-domain data access control.

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4201 Constructing a Fuzzy Net Present Value Method to Evaluating the BOT Sport Facilities

Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

This paper is to develop a fuzzy net present value (FNPV) method by taking vague cash flow and imprecise required rate of return into account for evaluating the value of the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) sport facilities. In order to clearly manifest a more realistic capital budgeting model based on the classical net present value (NPV) method, some uncertain financial elements in NPV formula will be fuzzified as triangular fuzzy numbers. Through the conscientious manipulation of fuzzy set theory, we will find that the proposed FNPV model is a more explicit extension of classical (crisp) model and could be more practicable for the financial managers to capture the essence of capital budgeting of sport facilities than non-fuzzy model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets; Capital budgeting, Sport facility, Net present value (NPV), Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme

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4200 Talent Management and its Use in the Field of Human Resources Management in the Organization of the Czech Republic

Authors: Petra Horváthová, Irena Durdová

Abstract:

The article is aimed at bringing information on the scope and the level of use of talent management by organizations in one of the Czech Republic regions, in the Moravian-Silesian Region. On the basis of data acquired by a questionnaire survey it has been found out that organizations in the above-mentioned region are implementing the system of talent management on a small scale: this approach is used by 3.8 % of organizations only that is 9 from 237 (100 %) of the approached respondents. The main reasons why this approach is not used is either that organizations have no knowledge of it or there is lack of financial and personnel resources. In the article recommendations suggested by the author can be found for a wider application of talent management in the Czech practice.

Keywords: Talent, talent management, use, mind map of talent management.

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4199 A Web Text Mining Flexible Architecture

Authors: M. Castellano, G. Mastronardi, A. Aprile, G. Tarricone

Abstract:

Text Mining is an important step of Knowledge Discovery process. It is used to extract hidden information from notstructured o semi-structured data. This aspect is fundamental because much of the Web information is semi-structured due to the nested structure of HTML code, much of the Web information is linked, much of the Web information is redundant. Web Text Mining helps whole knowledge mining process to mining, extraction and integration of useful data, information and knowledge from Web page contents. In this paper, we present a Web Text Mining process able to discover knowledge in a distributed and heterogeneous multiorganization environment. The Web Text Mining process is based on flexible architecture and is implemented by four steps able to examine web content and to extract useful hidden information through mining techniques. Our Web Text Mining prototype starts from the recovery of Web job offers in which, through a Text Mining process, useful information for fast classification of the same are drawn out, these information are, essentially, job offer place and skills.

Keywords: Web text mining, flexible architecture, knowledgediscovery.

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4198 Information Systems Outsourcing Reasons and Risks: An Empirical Study

Authors: Reyes Gonzalez, Jose Gasco, Juan Llopis

Abstract:

Outsourcing, a management practice strongly consolidated within the area of Information Systems, is currently going through a stage of unstoppable growth. This paper makes a proposal about the main reasons which may lead firms to adopt Information Systems Outsourcing. It will equally analyse the potential risks that IS clients are likely to face. An additional objective is to assess these reasons and risks in the case of large Spanish firms, while simultaneously examining their evolution over time.

Keywords: Information Systems, Information Technologies, Outsourcing, Reasons, Risks, Survey.

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4197 A Framework for Ranking Quality of Information on Weblog

Authors: Mohammad Javad Kargar, Fatemeh Azimzadeh

Abstract:

The vast amount of information on the World Wide Web is created and published by many different types of providers. Unlike books and journals, most of this information is not subject to editing or peer review by experts. This lack of quality control and the explosion of web sites make the task of finding quality information on the web especially critical. Meanwhile new facilities for producing web pages such as Blogs make this issue more significant because Blogs have simple content management tools enabling nonexperts to build easily updatable web diaries or online journals. On the other hand despite a decade of active research in information quality (IQ) there is no framework for measuring information quality on the Blogs yet. This paper presents a novel experimental framework for ranking quality of information on the Weblog. The results of data analysis revealed seven IQ dimensions for the Weblog. For each dimension, variables and related coefficients were calculated so that presented framework is able to assess IQ of Weblogs automatically.

Keywords: Information Quality, Weblog, Web Ranking, Web- Quality.

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4196 Invariant Characters of Tolerance Class and Reduction under Homomorphism in IIS

Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

Abstract:

Some invariant properties of incomplete information systems homomorphism are studied in this paper. Demand conditions of tolerance class, attribute reduction, indispensable attribute and dispensable attribute being invariant under homomorphism in incomplete information system are revealed and discussed. The existing condition of endohomomorphism on an incomplete information system is also explored. It establishes some theoretical foundations for further investigations on incomplete information systems in rough set theory, like in information systems.

Keywords: Attribute reduction, homomorphism, incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation.

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4195 Banking Risk Management between the Prudential and the Operational Approaches

Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

Abstract:

Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: Banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management.

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4194 Female Labor Force Participation in Third World Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Authors: Anam Azam, Muhammad Rafiq

Abstract:

The study identified the socio-economic and demographic factors of both married and unmarried females in third world countries. Almost all the countries have same problems but we have selected Pakistan as a sample country. The main purpose of this study was to examine which factors forced women to participate in labor market. So the best technique of data collection was survey of both married and unmarried females between the ages of 20 to 49. Two models (probit and logit) were used to analyze the factors which effect on FLFP. The result showed that some factors e.g. age; education and marital status have significant effect on FLFP. The findings showed that educated women and those who belong to joint families are more participate because of financial pressure.

Keywords: Education, Financial status, Family pressure Labor Market participation.

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4193 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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