Search results for: model order reduction.

Authors: Zia R. Tahir, P. Mandal

Abstract:

A numerical study is presented on buckling and post buckling behaviour of laminated carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) thin-walled cylindrical shells under axial compression using asymmetric meshing technique (AMT). Asymmetric meshing technique is a perturbation technique to introduce disturbance without changing geometry, boundary conditions or loading conditions. Asymmetric meshing affects predicted buckling load, buckling mode shape and post-buckling behaviour. Linear (eigenvalue) and nonlinear (Riks) analyses have been performed to study the effect of asymmetric meshing in the form of a patch on buckling behaviour. The reduction in the buckling load using Asymmetric meshing technique was observed to be about 15%. An isolated dimple formed near the bifurcation point and the size of which increased to reach a stable state in the post-buckling region. The load-displacement curve behaviour applying asymmetric meshing is quite similar to the curve obtained using initial geometric imperfection in the shell model.

Keywords: CFRP Composite Cylindrical Shell, Finite Element Analysis, Perturbation Technique, Asymmetric Meshing Technique, Linear Eigenvalue analysis, Non-linear Riks Analysis

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Authors: R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar, A. Zarnani

Abstract:

The inherent flexibilities of XML in both structure and semantics makes mining from XML data a complex task with more challenges compared to traditional association rule mining in relational databases. In this paper, we propose a new model for the effective extraction of generalized association rules form a XML document collection. We directly use frequent subtree mining techniques in the discovery process and do not ignore the tree structure of data in the final rules. The frequent subtrees based on the user provided support are split to complement subtrees to form the rules. We explain our model within multi-steps from data preparation to rule generation.

Keywords: XML, Data Mining, Association Rule Mining.

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Authors: Li Ge

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the existence of solution of the four-point boundary value problem for second-order differential equations with impulses by using leray-Schauder theory:

Keywords: impulsive differential equations, impulsive integraldifferentialequation, boundary value problems

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Authors: Li Ge

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the existence of solution of the four-point boundary value problem for second-order differential equations with impulses by using leray-Schauder theory:

Keywords: impulsive differential equations, impulsive integraldifferentialequation, boundary value problems

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Jia-Shu Li

Abstract:

To design a product with the given product requirement and design objective, there can be alternative ways to propose the detailed design specifications of the product. In the design modeling stage, alternative design cases with detailed specifications can be modeled to fulfill the product requirement and design objective. Therefore, in the design evaluation stage, it is required to perform an evaluation of the alternative design cases for deciding the final design. The purpose of this research is to develop a product evaluation model for evaluating the alternative design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain. The criteria in the functional design group include primary function, expansion function, improved function, and new function. The criteria in the Kansei group include geometric shape, dimension, surface finish, and layout. The criteria in the design for supply chain group include material, manufacturing process, assembly, and supply chain operation. From the point of view of value and cost, the criteria in the functional design group and Kansei design group represent the design value of the product. The criteria in the design for supply chain group represent the supply chain and manufacturing cost of the product. It is required to evaluate the design value and the supply chain cost to determine the final design. For the purpose of evaluating the criteria in the three criteria groups, a fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is presented to evaluate a weighted index by calculating the total relational values among the three groups. A method using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is used to compare and rank the design alternative cases according to the weighted index using the total relational values of the criteria. The final decision of a design case can be determined by using the ordered ranking. For example, the design case with the top ranking can be selected as the final design case. Based on the criteria in the evaluation, the design objective can be achieved with a combined and weighted effect of the design value and manufacturing cost. An example product is demonstrated and illustrated in the presentation. It shows that the design evaluation model is useful for integrated evaluation of functional design, Kansei design, and design for supply chain to determine the best design case and achieve the design objective.

Keywords: Design evaluation, functional design, Kansei design, supply chain, design value, manufacturing cost, fuzzy analytic network process, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution.

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Authors: D. de Matías Batalla

Abstract:

This paper develops and extended eclectic paradigm to fit the firm internationalization process with the real international business world. The approach is based on Dunning´s, introducing new concepts like mode of entry, international joint venture o international mergers and acquisitions. At the same time is presented a model to describe the Spanish international mergers and acquisitions in order to determinate the most important factor that influence in this type of foreign direct investment.

Keywords: Dunning, eclectic paradigm, foreign direct investment, IJV, international business, international management, multinational firms, firm internationalization process, M&A.

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Authors: S. Damodaran, T. V. S.Sekhar

Abstract:

The motion of a sphere moving along the axis of a rotating viscous fluid is studied at high Reynolds numbers and moderate values of Taylor number. The Higher Order Compact Scheme is used to solve the governing Navier-Stokes equations. The equations are written in the form of Stream function, Vorticity function and angular velocity which are highly non-linear, coupled and elliptic partial differential equations. The flow is governed by two parameters Reynolds number (Re) and Taylor number (T). For very low values of Re and T, the results agree with the available experimental and theoretical results in the literature. The results are obtained at higher values of Re and moderate values of T and compared with the experimental results. The results are fourth order accurate.

Keywords: Navier_Stokes equations, Taylor number, Reynolds number, Higher order compact scheme, Rotating Fluid.

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Authors: V. D. Thi, M. Li, M. Khelifa, M. El Ganaoui, Y. Rogaume

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This paper presents a two-dimensional model to study the heat and moisture transfer through porous building materials. Dynamic and static coupled models of heat and moisture transfer in porous material under low temperature are presented and the coupled models together with variable initial and boundary conditions have been considered in an analytical way and using the finite element method. The resulting coupled model is converted to two nonlinear partial differential equations, which is then numerically solved by an implicit iterative scheme. The numerical results of temperature and moisture potential changes are compared with the experimental measurements available in the literature. Predicted results demonstrate validation of the theoretical model and effectiveness of the developed numerical algorithms. It is expected to provide useful information for the porous building material design based on heat and moisture transfer model.

Keywords: Finite element method, heat transfer, moisture transfer, porous materials, wood.

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Authors: Nur Azaliah Abu Bakar, Harihodin Selamat, Mohd Nazri Kama

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This article provides a systematic review of existing research related to the Service-oriented Enterprise Architecture (SoEA) adoption and maturity measurement model. The review’s main goals are to support research; to facilitate other researchers’ search for relevant studies; and to propose areas for future studies within this area. In addition, this article provides useful information on SoEA adoption issues and its related maturity model, based on research-based knowledge. The review results suggest that motives, critical success factors (CSFs), implementation status, and benefits are the most frequently studied areas, and that each of these areas would benefit from further exposure.

Keywords: Systematic Literature Review, Service-oriented Architecture, Adoption, Maturity Model.

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Authors: Ava Dodd, Jonathan Adams

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics of developing a machine learning application using synthetic data. The study is structured to develop the application for the purpose of deploying the computer vision model. The findings discuss the realities of attempting to develop a computer vision model for practical purpose, and detail the processes, tools and techniques that were used to meet accuracy requirements. The research reveals that synthetic data represent another variable that can be adjusted to improve the performance of a computer vision model. Further, a suite of tools and tuning recommendations are provided.

Keywords: computer vision, machine learning, synthetic data, YOLOv4

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Authors: Abdullah Faqihi, John Hedley

Abstract:

Biosensors play a significant role in the healthcare sectors, scientific and technological progress. Developing electrodes that are easy to manufacture and deliver better electrochemical performance is advantageous for diagnostics and biosensing. They can be implemented extensively in various analytical tasks such as drug discovery, food safety, medical diagnostics, process controls, security and defence, in addition to environmental monitoring. Development of biosensors aims to create high-performance electrochemical electrodes for diagnostics and biosensing. A biosensor is a device that inspects the biological and chemical reactions generated by the biological sample. A biosensor carries out biological detection via a linked transducer and transmits the biological response into an electrical signal; stability, selectivity, and sensitivity are the dynamic and static characteristics that affect and dictate the quality and performance of biosensors. In this research, a developed experimental study for laser scribing technique for graphene oxide inside a vacuum chamber for processing of graphene oxide is presented. The processing of graphene oxide (GO) was achieved using the laser scribing technique. The effect of the laser scribing on the reduction of GO was investigated under two conditions: atmosphere and vacuum. GO solvent was coated onto a LightScribe DVD. The laser scribing technique was applied to reduce GO layers to generate rGO. The micro-details for the morphological structures of rGO and GO were visualised using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Raman spectroscopy so that they could be examined. The first electrode was a traditional graphene-based electrode model, made under normal atmospheric conditions, whereas the second model was a developed graphene electrode fabricated under a vacuum state using a vacuum chamber. The purpose was to control the vacuum conditions, such as the air pressure and the temperature during the fabrication process. The parameters to be assessed include the layer thickness and the continuous environment. Results presented show high accuracy and repeatability achieving low cost productivity.

Keywords: Laser scribing, LightScribe DVD, graphene oxide, scanning electron microscopy.

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Authors: Mouse, cardiac myocytes, computer simulation, action potential.

Abstract:

Heterogeneous repolarization causes dispersion of the T-wave and has been linked to arrhythmogenesis. Such heterogeneities appear due to differential expression of ionic currents in different regions of the heart, both in healthy and diseased animals and humans. Mice are important animals for the study of heart diseases because of the ability to create transgenic animals. We used our previously reported model of mouse ventricular myocytes to develop 2D mouse ventricular tissue model consisting of 14,000 cells (apical or septal ventricular myocytes) and to study the stability of action potential propagation and Ca2+ dynamics. The 2D tissue model was implemented as a FORTRAN program code for highperformance multiprocessor computers that runs on 36 processors. Our tissue model is able to simulate heterogeneities not only in action potential repolarization, but also heterogeneities in intracellular Ca2+ transients. The multicellular model reproduced experimentally observed velocities of action potential propagation and demonstrated the importance of incorporation of realistic Ca2+ dynamics for action potential propagation. The simulations show that relatively sharp gradients of repolarization are predicted to exist in 2D mouse tissue models, and they are primarily determined by the cellular properties of ventricular myocytes. Abrupt local gradients of channel expression can cause alternans at longer pacing basic cycle lengths than gradual changes, and development of alternans depends on the site of stimulation.

Keywords: Mouse, cardiac myocytes, computer simulation, action potential

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Authors: Shamsuddin Ahmed, M. G. M. Khan, Biman Prasad, Avlin Prasad

Abstract:

The focus of this paper is to construct daily time series exchange rate forecast models of Samoan Tala/USD and Tala/AUD during the year 2008 to 2012 with neural network The performance of the models was measured by using varies error functions such as Root Square mean error (RSME), Mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Our empirical findings suggest that AR (1) model is an effective tool to forecast the Tala/USD and Tala/AUD.

Keywords: Neural Network Forecasting Model, Autoregressive time series, Exchange rate, Tala/AUD, winters model.

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Authors: Arshia Azam, J. Amarnath, Ch. D. V. Paradesi Rao

Abstract:

The advantage of solving the complex nonlinear problems by utilizing fuzzy logic methodologies is that the experience or expert-s knowledge described as a fuzzy rule base can be directly embedded into the systems for dealing with the problems. The current limitation of appropriate and automated designing of fuzzy controllers are focused in this paper. The structure discovery and parameter adjustment of the Branched T-S fuzzy model is addressed by a hybrid technique of type constrained sparse tree algorithms. The simulation result for different system model is evaluated and the identification error is observed to be minimum.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, branch T-S fuzzy model, tree modeling, complex nonlinear system.

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

Abstract:

This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of shape-memory products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: Elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior.

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Authors: Ö. Şenyiğit, A. Çolak

Abstract:

It is of great importance for an architectural student to know the parameters through which he/she can conduct his/her design and makes his/her design effective in architectural education. Therefore; an empirical application study was carried out through the designing activity using the emulation model to support the design and design approaches of architectural students. During the investigation period, studies were done on the basic design elements and principles of the fall semester, and the emulation model, one of the designing methods that constitute the subject of the study, was fictionalized as three phased “recognition-interpretation-application”. As a result of the study, it was observed that when students were given a key method during the design process, their awareness increased and their aspects improved as well.

Keywords: Basic design, design education, design methods, emulation.

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Authors: Wang Zhulin, Min Fuhong, Peng Guangya, Wang Yaoda, Cao Yi

Abstract:

In this paper, a magnetron memristor model based on hyperbolic sine function is presented and the correctness proved by studying the trajectory of its voltage and current phase, and then a memristor chaotic system with the memristor model is presented. The phase trajectories and the bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponent spectrum of the magnetron memristor system are plotted by numerical simulation, and the chaotic evolution with changing the parameters of the system is also given. The paper includes numerical simulations and mathematical model, which confirming that the system, has a wealth of dynamic behavior.

Keywords: Memristor, chaotic circuit, dynamical behavior, chaotic system.

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Authors: Samia Ait Ali Yahia

Abstract:

Several steles with Libyan inscriptions were discovered in Grande Kabylia (Algeria), but very few researchers were interested in these inscriptions. Our work is to list, if possible all these steles in order to do a descriptive study of the corpus. The steles analysis will be focused on the iconographic and epigraphic level and on the different forms of Libyan characters in order to highlight the alphabet used by the Grande Kabylia.

Keywords: Epigraphy, stele, Libyan inscription, Grande Kabylia.

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Authors: Nureddin Dinler, Nuri Yucel

Abstract:

Improving the performance of internal combustion engines is one of the major concerns of researchers. Experimental studies are more expensive than computational studies. Also using computational techniques allows one to obtain all the required data for the cylinder, some of which could not be measured. In this study, an axisymmetric homogeneous charged spark ignition engine was modeled. Fluid motion and combustion process were investigated numerically. Turbulent flow conditions were considered. Standard k- ε turbulence model for fluid flow and eddy break-up model for turbulent combustion were utilized. The effects of valve angle on the fluid flow and combustion are analyzed for constant air/fuel and compression ratios. It is found that, velocities and strength of tumble increases in-cylinder flow and due to increase in turbulence strength, the flame propagation is faster for small valve angles.

Keywords: CFD simulation, eddy break-up model, k-εturbulence model, reciprocating engine flow and combustion.

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Authors: G. Khatisashvili, M. Gordeziani, G. Adamia, E. Kvesitadze, T. Sadunishvili, G. Kvesitadze

Abstract:

The ability of agricultural and decorative plants to absorb and detoxify TNT and RDX has been studied. All tested 8 plants, grown hydroponically, were able to absorb these explosives from water solutions: Alfalfa > Soybean > Chickpea> Chikling vetch >Ryegrass > Mung bean> China bean > Maize. Differently from TNT, RDX did not exhibit negative influence on seed germination and plant growth. Moreover, some plants, exposed to RDX containing solution were increased in their biomass by 20%. Study of the fate of absorbed [1-14ðí]-TNT revealed the label distribution in low and high-molecular mass compounds, both in roots and above ground parts of plants, prevailing in the later. Content of 14ðí in lowmolecular compounds in plant roots are much higher than in above ground parts. On the contrary, high-molecular compounds are more intensively labeled in aboveground parts of soybean. Most part (up to 70%) of metabolites of TNT, formed either by enzymatic reduction or oxidation, is found in high molecular insoluble conjugates. Activation of enzymes, responsible for reduction, oxidation and conjugation of TNT, such as nitroreductase, peroxidase, phenoloxidase and glutathione S-transferase has been demonstrated. Among these enzymes, only nitroreductase was shown to be induced in alfalfa, exposed to RDX. The increase in malate dehydrogenase activities in plants, exposed to both explosives, indicates intensification of Tricarboxylic Acid Cycle, that generates reduced equivalents of NAD(P)H, necessary for functioning of the nitroreductase. The hypothetic scheme of TNT metabolism in plants is proposed.

Keywords: Higher plants, TNT, RDX, transformation.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

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This paper deals with different modeling aspects of masonry infill: no infill model, Layered shell infill model, and strut infill model. These models consider the complicated behavior of the in-filled plane frames under lateral load similar to an earthquake load. Three strut infill models are used: NBCC (2005) strut infill model, ASCE/SEI 41-06 strut infill model and proposed strut infill model based on modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) strut infill model. Pushover and modal analyses of a masonry infill concrete frame with a single storey and an existing 5-storey RC building have been carried out by using different models for masonry infill. The corresponding hinge status, the value of base shear at target displacement as well as their dynamic characteristics have been determined and compared. A validation of the structural numerical models for the existing 5-storey RC building has been achieved by comparing the experimentally measured and the analytically estimated natural frequencies and their mode shapes. This study shows that ASCE/SEI 41-06 equation underestimates the values for the equivalent properties of the diagonal strut while Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation gives realistic values for the equivalent properties. The results indicate that both ASCE/SEI 41-06 and Canadian, NBCC (2005) equations for strut infill model give over estimated values for dynamic characteristic of the building. Proposed modification to Canadian, NBCC (2005) equation shows that the fundamental dynamic characteristic values of the building are nearly similar to the corresponding values using layered shell elements as well as measured field results.

Keywords: Masonry infill, framed structures, RC buildings, non-structural elements.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini, R. N. Pralhad

Abstract:

In this paper, mathematical modeling of detonation in the ground is studied. Estimation of flow parameters such as velocity, maximum velocity, acceleration, maximum acceleration, shock pressure as a result of an explosion in the ground have been computed in an appropriate dynamic model approach. The variation of these parameters with the diameter of detonation place (L), density of earth or stone (¤ü), time decay of detonation (T), peak pressure (Pm), and time (t) have been analyzed. The model has been developed from the concept of underwater explosions [Refs. [1]-[3]] with appropriate changes to the present model requirements.

Keywords: Shock velocity, detonation, shock acceleration, shock pressure.

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Authors: Suresh Sahu, Abhijeet M. Vaidya, Naresh K. Maheshwari

Abstract:

The efforts to understand the heat transfer behavior of supercritical water in supercritical water cooled reactor (SCWR) are ongoing worldwide to fulfill the future energy demand. The higher thermal efficiency of these reactors compared to a conventional nuclear reactor is one of the driving forces for attracting the attention of nuclear scientists. In this work, a solution procedure has been described for solving supercritical fluid flow problems in complex geometries. The solution procedure is based on non-staggered grid. All governing equations are discretized by finite volume method (FVM) in curvilinear coordinate system. Convective terms are discretized by first-order upwind scheme and central difference approximation has been used to discretize the diffusive parts. k-ε turbulence model with standard wall function has been employed. SIMPLE solution procedure has been implemented for the curvilinear coordinate system. Based on this solution method, 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code has been developed. In order to demonstrate the capability of this CFD code in supercritical fluid flows, heat transfer to supercritical water in circular tubes has been considered as a test problem. Results obtained by code have been compared with experimental results reported in literature.

Keywords: Curvilinear coordinate, body-fitted mesh, momentum interpolation, non-staggered grid, supercritical fluids.

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Authors: Abd Latif Abdul Rahman, Adnan Jamaludin, Zamalia Mahmud

Abstract:

Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model has demonstrated the influencing factors for generic information systems use such as tablet personal computer (TPC) and mobile communication. However, in the context of digital library system, there has been very little effort to determine factors affecting the intention to use digital library based on the UTAUT model. This paper investigates factors that are expected to influence the intention of postgraduate students to use digital library based on modified UTAUT model. The modified model comprises of constructs represented by several latent variables, namely performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), information quality (IQ) and service quality (SQ) and moderated by age, gender and experience in using digital library. Results show that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and information quality are positively related to the intention to use digital library, while service quality is negatively related to the intention to use digital library. Age and gender have shown no evidence of any significant interactions, while experience in using digital library significantly interacts with effort expectancy and intention to use digital library. This has provided the evidence of a moderating effect of experience in the intention to use digital library. It is expected that this research will shed new lights into research of acceptance and intention to use the library in a digital environment.

Keywords: Intention to use digital library, UTAUT model, performance expectancy, effort expectancy, information quality, service quality.

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Authors: A. Amar, N. Burtebayev, Kerimkulov Zhambul, Sh. Hamada, N. Amangeldi

Abstract:

the elastic scattering of protons, deuterons and 3He on 6Li at different incident energies have been analyzed in the framework of the optical model using ECIS88 as well as SPI GENOA codes. The potential parameters were extracted in the phenomenological treatment of measured by us angular distributions and literature data. A good agreement between theoretical and experimental differential cross sections was obtained in whole angular range. Parameters for real part of potential have been also calculated microscopically with singleand double-folding model for the p and d, 3He scattering, respectively, using DFPOT code. For best agreement with experiment the normalization factor N for the potential depth is obtained in the range of 0.7-0.9.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, Esis88 Code single and doublefolding model, phenomenological, DWBA.

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Authors: Darmawan Napitupulu, Dana Indra Sensuse, Aniati Murni

Abstract:

The research was conducted to empirically validate the proposed maturity model of e-Government implementation, composed of four dimensions, further specified by 54 success factors as attributes. To do so, there are two steps were performed. First, expert’s judgment was conducted to test its content validity. The second, reliability study was performed to evaluate inter-rater agreement by using Fleiss Kappa approach. The kappa statistic (kappa coefficient) is the most commonly used method for testing the consistency among raters. Fleiss Kappa was a generalization of Kappa in extensions to the case of more than two raters (multiple raters) with multi-categorical ratings. Our findings show that most attributes of the proposed model were related to their corresponding dimensions. According to our results, The percentage of agree answers given by the experts was 73.69% in dimension A, 89.76% in B, 81.5% in C and 60.37% in D. This means that more than half of the attributes of each dimensions were appropriate or relevant to the dimensions they were supposed to measure, while 85% of attributes were relevant enough to their corresponding dimensions. Inter-rater reliability coefficient also showed satisfactory result and interpreted as substantial agreement among raters. Therefore, the proposed model in this paper was valid and reliable to measure the maturity of e-Government implementation.

Keywords: E-Government, Model, Maturity, Validity, Reliability Kappa.

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Authors: R. C. Ferreira, H. H. C. De Lima, A. A. Cândido, O. M. Couto Junior, P. A. Arroyo, K. Q De Carvalho, G. F. Gauze, M. A. S. D. Barros

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Removal of the widespread used drug paracetamol from water was investigated using activated carbon originated from dende coconut mesocarp and babassu coconut mesocarp. Kinetic and equilibrium data were obtained at different values of pH. Both activated carbons showed high efficiency when pH ≤ pHPZC as the carbonil group of paracetamol molecule are adsorbed due to positively charged carbon surface. Microporosity also played an important role in such process. Pseudo-second order model was better adjusted to the kinetic results. Equilibrium data may be represented by Langmuir equation.

Keywords: Adsorption, activated carbon, babassu, dende.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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