Search results for: Numerical weather prediction (NWP)

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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Authors: Chien-Jen Liu, Shu Ching Yang

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Using the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study examined the external variables of technological complexity (TC) to acquire a better understanding of the factors that influence the acceptance of computer application courses by learners at Active Aging Universities. After the learners in this study had completed a 27-hour Facebook course, 44 learners responded to a modified TAM survey. Data were collected to examine the path relationships among the variables that influence the acceptance of Facebook-mediated community learning. The partial least squares (PLS) method was used to test the measurement and the structural model. The study results demonstrated that attitudes toward Facebook use directly influence behavioral intentions (BI) with respect to Facebook use, evincing a high prediction rate of 58.3%. In addition to the perceived usefulness (PU) and perceived ease of use (PEOU) measures that are proposed in the TAM, other external variables, such as TC, also indirectly influence BI. These four variables can explain 88% of the variance in BI and demonstrate a high level of predictive ability. Finally, limitations of this investigation and implications for further research are discussed.

Keywords: Technology acceptance model (TAM), technological complexity, partial least squares (PLS), perceived usefulness.

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Authors: Xu-xia Hu, Eric T. T. Wong

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The simulation of external aerodynamics is one of the most challenging and important automotive CFD applications. With the rapid developments of digital computers, CFD is used as a practical tool in modern fluid dynamics research. It integrates fluid mechanics disciplines, mathematics and computer science. In this study, two different types of simulations were made, one for the flow around a simplified high speed passenger car with a rear-spoiler and the other for the flow without a rear-spoiler. The standard k-ε model is selected to numerically simulate the external flow field of the simplified Camry model with or without a rear-spoiler. Through an analysis of the simulation results, a new rear spoiler is designed and it shows a mild reduction of the vehicle aerodynamics drag. This leads to less vehicle fuel consumption on the road.

Keywords: CFD, vehicle rear-spoiler design.

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Authors: Panpan Xu, Shulin Sui, Zongjie Du

Abstract:

Genetic algorithm is widely used in optimization problems for its excellent global search capabilities and highly parallel processing capabilities; but, it converges prematurely and has a poor local optimization capability in actual operation. Simulated annealing algorithm can avoid the search process falling into local optimum. A hybrid genetic algorithm based on simulated annealing is designed by combining the advantages of genetic algorithm and simulated annealing algorithm. The numerical experiment represents the hybrid genetic algorithm can be applied to solve the function optimization problems efficiently.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Simulated annealing, Hybrid genetic algorithm, Function optimization.

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Authors: Hamdy M. Youssef, Mowffaq Oreijah, Hunaydi S. Alsharif

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In this paper, a three-dimensional model of the generalized thermoelasticity with one relaxation time and variable thermal conductivity has been constructed. The resulting non-dimensional governing equations together with the Laplace and double Fourier transforms techniques have been applied to a three-dimensional half-space subjected to thermal loading with rectangular pulse and traction free in the directions of the principle co-ordinates. The inverses of double Fourier transforms, and Laplace transforms have been obtained numerically. Numerical results for the temperature increment, the invariant stress, the invariant strain, and the displacement are represented graphically. The variability of the thermal conductivity has significant effects on the thermal and the mechanical waves.

Keywords: Thermoelasticity, three-dimensional, Laplace transforms, Fourier transforms, thermal conductivity.

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Authors: Zulhadi Zakaria, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa, Shahrel A. Suandi

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This paper reports the study results on neural network training algorithm of numerical optimization techniques multiface detection in static images. The training algorithms involved are scale gradient conjugate backpropagation, conjugate gradient backpropagation with Polak-Riebre updates, conjugate gradient backpropagation with Fletcher-Reeves updates, one secant backpropagation and resilent backpropagation. The final result of each training algorithms for multiface detection application will also be discussed and compared.

Keywords: training algorithm, multiface, static image, neural network

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Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

Abstract:

Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: Time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure machine learning.

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Authors: Nur Irmawati, H.A. Mohammed

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In the present study, mixed convection in a horizontal rectangular duct using Al2O3 is numerically investigated. The effects of different Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and radiation on flow and heat transfer characteristics are studied in detail. This study covers Rayleigh number in the range of 2 × 10^6 ≤ Ra ≤ 2 × 10^7 and Reynolds number in the range of 100 ≤ Re ≤ 1100. Results reveal that the Nusselt number increases as Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers increase. It is also found that the dimensionless temperature distribution increases as Rayleigh number increases.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, Mixed convection, Horizontal rectangular duct, Nanofluids.

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Authors: Ribeiro I., Tavares A.M., Sá E., Lopes M.

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The increased use of biodiesel implies variations on both greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Some studies point out that the use of biodiesel blends on diesel can help in controlling air pollution and promote a reduction of CO2 emissions. Reductions on PM, SO2, VOC and CO emissions are also expected, however NOx emissions may increase, which may potentiate O3 formation. This work aims to assess the impact of the biodiesel use on air quality, through a numerical modeling study, taking the Northern region of Portugal as a case study. The emission scenarios are focused on 2008 (baseline year) and 2020 (target year of Renewable Energy Directive-RED) and on three biodiesel blends (B0, B10 and B20). In a general way the use of biodiesel by 2020 will reduce the CO2 and air pollutants emissions in the Northern Portugal, improving air quality. However it will be in a very small extension.

Keywords: air quality, biodiesel, emission scenarios, RED.

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Authors: Saeed AL-Rashdy, Qing Guo

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The IEEE802.16 standard which has emerged as Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) technology, promises to deliver high data rate over large areas to a large number of subscribers in the near future. This paper analyze the effect of overheads over capacity of downlink (DL) of orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA)–based on the IEEE802.16e mobile WiMAX system with and without overheads. The analysis focuses in particular on the impact of Adaptive Modulation and Coding (AMC) as well as deriving an algorithm to determine the maximum numbers of subscribers that each specific WiMAX sector may support. An analytical study of the WiMAX propagation channel by using Cost- 231 Hata Model is presented. Numerical results and discussion estimated by using Matlab to simulate the algorithm for different multi-users parameters.

Keywords: BWA, mobile WiMAX, capacity, AMC , overheads.

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Authors: Leila Graini

Abstract:

In this paper, we demonstrate basic all-optical functions for 2R regeneration (Re-amplification and Re-shaping) based on self-similar spectral broadening in low normal dispersion and highly nonlinear fiber (ND-HNLF) to regenerate the signal through optical filtering including the transfer function characteristics, and output extinction ratio. Our approach of all-optical 2R regeneration is based on those of Mamyshev. The numerical study reveals the self-similar spectral broadening very effective for 2R all-optical regeneration; the proposed design presents high stability compared to a conventional regenerator using SPM broadening with reduction of the intensity fluctuations and improvement of the extinction ratio.

Keywords: All-optical function, 2R optical regeneration, self-similar broadening, Mamyshev regenerator.

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Authors: Roy Fritzsche, Rainer Lasch

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Avoidable unscheduled maintenance events and unnecessary spare parts deliveries are mostly caused by an incorrect choice of the underlying maintenance strategy. For a faster and more efficient supply of spare parts for aircrafts of an airline we examine options for improving the underlying logistics network integrated in an existing aviation industry network. This paper presents a dynamic prediction model as decision support for maintenance method selection considering requirements of an entire flight network. The objective is to guarantee a high supply of spare parts by an optimal interaction of various network levels and thus to reduce unscheduled maintenance events and minimize total costs. By using a prognostics-based preventive maintenance strategy unscheduled component failures are avoided for an increase in availability and reliability of the entire system. The model is intended for use in an aviation company that utilizes a structured planning process based on collected failures data of components.

Keywords: Aviation industry, Prognosis, Reliability, Preventive maintenance.

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Authors: Dim En Nyaung, Thin Lai Lai Thein

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Due to the rapid increase of Internet, web opinion sources dynamically emerge which is useful for both potential customers and product manufacturers for prediction and decision purposes. These are the user generated contents written in natural languages and are unstructured-free-texts scheme. Therefore, opinion mining techniques become popular to automatically process customer reviews for extracting product features and user opinions expressed over them. Since customer reviews may contain both opinionated and factual sentences, a supervised machine learning technique applies for subjectivity classification to improve the mining performance. In this paper, we dedicate our work is the task of opinion summarization. Therefore, product feature and opinion extraction is critical to opinion summarization, because its effectiveness significantly affects the identification of semantic relationships. The polarity and numeric score of all the features are determined by Senti-WordNet Lexicon. The problem of opinion summarization refers how to relate the opinion words with respect to a certain feature. Probabilistic based model of supervised learning will improve the result that is more flexible and effective.

Keywords: Opinion Mining, Opinion Summarization, Sentiment Analysis, Text Mining.

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Authors: O. A. Akinfenwa, N.M. Yao, S. N. Jator

Abstract:

In this paper, a self starting two step continuous block hybrid formulae (CBHF) with four Off-step points is developed using collocation and interpolation procedures. The CBHF is then used to produce multiple numerical integrators which are of uniform order and are assembled into a single block matrix equation. These equations are simultaneously applied to provide the approximate solution for the stiff ordinary differential equations. The order of accuracy and stability of the block method is discussed and its accuracy is established numerically.

Keywords: Collocation and Interpolation, Continuous HybridBlock Formulae, Off-Step Points, Stability, Stiff ODEs.

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Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: M. M. Mohammadi Dehnavi, A. De Angelis, M. R. Pecce

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This paper deals with the role of studs in structural response for steel-concrete composite beams. A tri-linear slip-shear strength law is assumed according to literature and codes provisions for developing a finite element (FE) model of a case study of a composite deck. The variation of the strength and ductility of the connection is implemented in the numerical model carrying out nonlinear analyses. The results confirm the utility of the model to evaluate the importance of the studs capacity, ductility and strength, on the global response (ductility and strength) of the structures but also to analyse the trend of slip and shear at interface along the beams.

Keywords: Shear Load, slip, steel-concrete composite bridge, stud connectors.

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Authors: Ozlem Faydasicok, Sabri Arik

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This paper derives some new sufficient conditions for the stability of a class of neutral-type neural networks with discrete time delays by employing a suitable Lyapunov functional. The obtained conditions can be easily verified as they can be expressed in terms of the network parameters only. It is shown that the results presented in this paper for neutral-type delayed neural networks establish a new set of stability criteria, and therefore can be considered as the alternative results to the previously published literature results. A numerical example is also given to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed stability criterion.

Keywords: Stability Analysis, Neutral-Type Neural Networks, Time Delay Systems, Lyapunov Functionals.

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Authors: A. M. Sagir

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Discrete linear multistep block method of uniform order for the solution of first order initial value problems (IVP­s­) in ordinary differential equations (ODE­s­) is presented in this paper. The approach of interpolation and collocation approximation are adopted in the derivation of the method which is then applied to first order ordinary differential equations with associated initial conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain four discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on ordinary differential equations, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, First Order Ordinary Differential Equations, Hybrid, Self starting.

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Authors: S. Raissi

Abstract:

Response surface methodology (RSM) is a very efficient tool to provide a good practical insight into developing new process and optimizing them. This methodology could help engineers to raise a mathematical model to represent the behavior of system as a convincing function of process parameters. Through this paper the sequential nature of the RSM surveyed for process engineers and its relationship to design of experiments (DOE), regression analysis and robust design reviewed. The proposed four-step procedure in two different phases could help system analyst to resolve the parameter design problem involving responses. In order to check accuracy of the designed model, residual analysis and prediction error sum of squares (PRESS) described. It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a complex parameter design problem with one or more responses. It can be applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using ready-made standard statistical packages.

Keywords: Response Surface Methodology (RSM), Design of Experiments (DOE), Process modeling, Process setting, Process optimization.

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Authors: Changzhao Li, Juan Zhang

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In this paper, we investigate a class of fuzzy Cohen- Grossberg neural networks with time delays and impulsive effects. By virtue of stochastic analysis, Halanay inequality for stochastic differential equations, we find sufficient conditions for the global exponential square-mean synchronization of the FCGNNs under noise perturbation. In particular, the traditional assumption on the differentiability of the time-varying delays is no longer needed. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the results in this paper.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (FCGNNs), complete synchronization, time delays, impulsive, noise perturbation.

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Authors: Adil Al-Rammahi

Abstract:

Electronic mail is very important in present time. Many researchers work for designing, improving, securing, fasting, goodness and others fields in electronic mail. This paper introduced new algorithm to use Cantor sets and cubic spline interpolating function in the electronic mail design. Cantor sets used as the area (or domain) of the mail, while spline function used for designing formula. The roots of spline function versus Cantor sets used as the controller admin. The roots calculated by the numerical Newton – Raphson's method. The result of this algorithm was promised.

Keywords: Cantor sets, spline, electronic mail design, Newton – Raphson's method.

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Authors: Stephen Akuma, Timothy Ndera

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Information seekers get “lost in hyperspace” due to the voluminous documents updated daily on the internet. Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHS) are used to direct learners to their target goals. One of the most common AHS designed to help information seekers to overcome the problem of information overload is the Adaptive Education Hypermedia System (AEHS). However, this paper focuses on AEHS that adopts the learning preference of high school students and deliver learning content according to this preference throughout their learning experience. The research developed a prototype system for predicting students’ learning preference from the Visual, Aural, Read-Write and Kinesthetic (VARK) learning style model and adopting the learning content suitable to their preference. The predicting strength of several classifiers was compared and we found Support Vector Machine (SVM) to be more accurate in predicting learning style based on users’ preferences.

Keywords: Hypermedia, adaptive education, learning style, lesson content, user profile, prediction, feedback, adaptive hypermedia, learning style.

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Authors: Yu Zhang, Pedro Desouza

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Since big data has become substantially more accessible and manageable due to the development of powerful tools for dealing with unstructured data, people are eager to mine information from social media resources that could not be handled in the past. Sentiment analysis, as a novel branch of text mining, has in the last decade become increasingly important in marketing analysis, customer risk prediction and other fields. Scientists and researchers have undertaken significant work in creating and improving their sentiment models. In this paper, we present a concept of selecting appropriate classifiers based on the features and qualities of data sources by comparing the performances of five classifiers with three popular social media data sources: Twitter, Amazon Customer Reviews, and Movie Reviews. We introduced a couple of innovative models that outperform traditional sentiment classifiers for these data sources, and provide insights on how to further improve the predictive power of sentiment analysis. The modeling and testing work was done in R and Greenplum in-database analytic tools.

Keywords: Sentiment Analysis, Social Media, Twitter, Amazon, Data Mining, Machine Learning, Text Mining.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: Local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, Online training method.

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Authors: Punit Kumar, Niraj Kumar

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The traction behavior of lubricants with the linear pressure-viscosity response in EHL line contacts is investigated numerically for smooth as well as rough surfaces. The analysis involves the simultaneous solution of Reynolds, elasticity and energy equations along with the computation of lubricant properties and surface temperatures. The temperature modified Doolittle-Tait equations are used to calculate viscosity and density as functions of fluid pressure and temperature, while Carreau model is used to describe the lubricant rheology. The surface roughness is assumed to be sinusoidal and it is present on the nearly stationary surface in near-pure sliding EHL conjunction. The linear P-V oil is found to yield much lower traction coefficients and slightly thicker EHL films as compared to the synthetic oil for a given set of dimensionless speed and load parameters. Besides, the increase in traction coefficient attributed to surface roughness is much lower for the former case. The present analysis emphasizes the importance of employing realistic pressure-viscosity response for accurate prediction of EHL traction.

Keywords: EHL, linear pressure-viscosity, surface roughness, traction, water/glycol.

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Authors: D. Bala Bhaskar

Abstract:

An algorithm is proposed for the order reduction of large scale linear dynamic multi variable systems where the reduced order model denominator is obtained by using Stability equation method and numerator coefficients are obtained by using SRAM. The proposed algorithm produces a lower order model for an original stable high order multivariable system. The reduction procedure is easy to understand, efficient and computer oriented. To highlight the advantages of the approach, the algorithm is illustrated with the help of a numerical example and the results are compared with the other existing techniques in literature.

Keywords: Multi variable systems, order reduction, stability equation method, SRAM, time domain characteristics, ISE.

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Authors: Mohd Zahari, M. S, Salleh, N. K., Kamaruddin, M. S. Y, Kutut, M. Z.

Abstract:

Service quality has become a centerpiece for airline companies in vying with one another and keeps their image in the minds of passengers. Many airlines have pushed service quality through service personalization which includes both ground and on board especially from the viewpoint of retaining satisfied passengers and attracting new ones. Besides those, in-flight meals/food service is another important aspect of the airline operation. The in flight meals/food services now are seen as part of marketing strategies in attracting business or leisure travelers. This study reports the outcomes of the investigation on in-flight meals/food attributes toward passengers- level of satisfaction and re-flying intention. Taste, freshness, appearance of in-flight meals/food served and menu choices are important to the airlines passengers especially for the long haul flight. Food not only contributes to the prediction of the airline passengers- levels of satisfaction but besides other factors slightly influence passengers- re- flying intention. Airline companies therefore should not ignore this element but take the opportunity to create more attractive and acceptable in-flight meals/food along with other matter as marketing tools in attracting passengers to re-flying with them.

Keywords: In-flight meal, passengers, satisfaction, re-flying and intention

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Authors: L. Gaile, I. Radinsh

Abstract:

Based on experimental data using accelerometry technology there was developed an analytical model that approximates human induced ground reaction forces in vertical, longitudinal and lateral directions ascending and descending the stairs. Proposed dynamic loading factors and corresponding phase shifts for the first five harmonics of continuous walking force history in case of stair ascend and descend. Into account is taken imperfectness of individual footfall forcing functions, differences between continuous walking force histories among individuals. There is proposed mean synthetic continuous walking force history that can be used in numerical simulations of human movement on the stairs.

Keywords: footfall, ground reaction forces, human loads, serviceability, stair vibration, walking

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Authors: M. G. Murtaza, E. E. Tzirtzilakis, M. Ferdows

Abstract:

The mixed convective flow of MHD incompressible, steady boundary layer in heat transfer over a curved stretching sheet due to temperature dependent thermal conductivity is studied. We use curvilinear coordinate system in order to describe the governing flow equations. Finite difference solutions with central differencing have been used to solve the transform governing equations. Numerical results for the flow velocity and temperature profiles are presented as a function of the non-dimensional curvature radius. Skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number at the surface of the curved sheet are discussed as well.

Keywords: Curved stretching sheet, finite difference method, MHD, variable thermal conductivity.

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