Search results for: electricity prices

Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey

Abstract:

Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.

Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.

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Authors: Klathea Sevilla, Marjorie Remolador, Bryan Baltazar, Imee Saladaga, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion Ang

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The underutilization of biomass resources in the Philippines, combined with its growing population and the rise in fossil fuel prices confirms demand for alternative energy sources. The goal of this paper is to provide a comparison of MODIS-based and Landsat-based agricultural land cover maps when used in the estimation of rice hull’s available energy potential. Biomass resource assessment was done using mathematical models and remote sensing techniques employed in a GIS platform.

Keywords: Biomass, geographic information system, GIS, renewable energy.

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Authors: Z. Babic, I. Veza, A. Balic, M. Crnjac

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The linear programming model is sometimes difficult to apply in real business situations due to its assumption of proportionality. This paper shows an example of how to use De Novo programming approach instead of linear programming. In the De Novo programming, resources are not fixed like in linear programming but resource quantities depend only on available budget. Budget is a new, important element of the De Novo approach. Two different production situations are presented: increasing costs and quantity discounts of raw materials. The focus of this paper is on advantages of the De Novo approach in the optimization of production plan for production company which produces souvenirs made from famous stone from the island of Brac, one of the greatest islands from Croatia.

Keywords: De Novo Programming, production plan, stone souvenirs, variable prices.

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Authors: I. Mahariq, I. Arpacı

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Dramatic growth in the population requires a parallel increase in the total installed capacity of electricity. Diversity, independency of resources and global warming call for installing renewable and nuclear energy plants. Several types of energy plants exist in Turkey; however, nuclear energy with its several attractive features is not utilized at all. This study presents the available energy resources in Turkey and reviews major challenges and opportunities in nuclear energy. At the end of this paper, some conclusions are stated.

Keywords: Nuclear, energy resources, challenges, opportunities, Turkey.

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Authors: B. Demirel, T.T. Onay, O. Yenigün

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The potential, opportunities and drawbacks of biogas technology use in Turkey are evaluated in this paper. Turkey is dependent on foreign sources of energy. Therefore, use of biogas technology would provide a safe way of waste disposal and recovery of renewable energy, particularly from a sustainable domestic source, which is less unlikely to be influenced by international price or political fluctuations. Use of biogas technology would especially meet the cooking, heating and electricity demand in rural areas and protect the environment, additionally creating new job opportunities and improving social-economical conditions.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, agricultural biogas plant, biogas, biomass, methane, waste

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Authors: O. Pop, C. Barbulescu, M. Nemes, St. Kilyeni

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The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. These methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer and on active power losses. The authors propose a power losses allocation method, based on Kirschen-s method. The system operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. The only necessary information is the power flows on system branches and the modifications applied to power system buses. In order to illustrate this method, the 25-bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, loss allocation, traceability methods.

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Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

Abstract:

Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: Radial basis function, basket option, jump diffusion, RBF-PUM.

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Authors: Rohit Choudhry, Kumkum Garg

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In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the stand alone SVM system.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Support Vector Machines, Stock Market Forecasting.

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: Harshit Vallecha, Prabha Bhola

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‘Energy for all’, is a global issue of concern for the past many years. Despite the number of technological advancements and innovations, significant numbers of people are living without access to electricity around the world. India, an emerging economy, tops the list of nations having the maximum number of residents living off the grid, thus raising global attention in past few years to provide clean and sustainable energy access solutions to all of its residents. It is evident from developed economies that centralized planning and electrification alone is not sufficient for meeting energy security. Implementation of off-grid and consumer-driven energy models like Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems have played a significant role in meeting the national energy demand in developed nations. Cases of DRE systems have been reported in developing countries like India for the past few years. This paper attempts to profile the status of DRE projects in the Indian context with their scope and relevance to ensure universal electrification. Diversified cases of DRE projects, particularly solar, biomass and micro hydro are identified in different Indian states. Critical factors affecting the sustainability of DRE projects are extracted with their interlinkages in the context of developers, beneficiaries and promoters involved in such projects. Socio-techno-economic indicators are identified through similar cases in the context of DRE projects. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to evaluate the critical sustainability factors followed by regression analysis to establish the relationship between the dependent and independent factors. The generated EFA-Regression model provides a basis to develop the sustainability and replicability framework for broader coverage of DRE projects in developing nations in order to attain the goal of universal electrification with least carbon emissions.

Keywords: Climate change, decentralized generation, electricity access, renewable energy.

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Authors: E. Khorram, S.M. Mirzababaei

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Everyday the usages of the Internet increase and simply a world of the data become accessible. Network providers do not want to let the provided services to be used in harmful or terrorist affairs, so they used a variety of methods to protect the special regions from the harmful data. One of the most important methods is supposed to be the firewall. Firewall stops the transfer of such packets through several ways, but in some cases they do not use firewall because of its blind packet stopping, high process power needed and expensive prices. Here we have proposed a method to find a discriminate function to distinguish between usual packets and harmful ones by the statistical processing on the network router logs. So an administrator can alarm to the user. This method is very fast and can be used simply in adjacent with the Internet routers.

Keywords: Data Mining, Firewall, Optimization, Packetclassification, Statistical Pattern Recognition.

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Authors: Amina Amirat, Abdelfettah Bouri

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If price and quantity are the fundamental building blocks of any theory of market interactions, the importance of trading volume in understanding the behavior of financial markets is clear. However, while many economic models of financial markets have been developed to explain the behavior of prices -predictability, variability, and information content- far less attention has been devoted to explaining the behavior of trading volume. In this article, we hope to expand our understanding of trading volume by developing a new measure of herding behavior based on a cross sectional dispersion of volumes betas. We apply our measure to the Toronto stock exchange using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2002. Our findings show that the herd phenomenon consists of three essential components: stationary herding, intentional herding and the feedback herding.

Keywords: Herding behavior, market return, trading volume.

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: Oil price volatility, Food price, Bivariate GARCH-in- mean VAR, Asymmetric.

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Authors: Ling Zheng, Yaping Wei, Kang Cao, Zheng Huang, Songpo Shi

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Not only is municipal pattern the institution basement of urban management, but it also determines the forms of the management results. There-s a considerable possibility of bankruptcy for China-s current municipal pattern as it-s an overdraft of land deal in fact. Based on the analysis of China-s current municipal pattern, the passage proposed an assumption of a new pattern verified legitimacy by conceptual as well as econometric models. Conclusion is: the added supernumerary value of investment in public goods was not included in China-s current municipal pattern, but hidden in the rising housing prices; we should set housing tax or municipal tax to optimize the municipal pattern, to correct the behavior of local governments and to ensure the regular development of China-s urbanization.

Keywords: Urban management, China's municipal pattern, land financial institution, housing tax, Public goods.

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Authors: Siyanda S. Biyela, Willie A. Cronje

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This paper presents a desktop study of comparing two different wave energy to electricity technologies (WECs) using a techno-economic approach. This techno-economic approach forms basis of a framework for rapid comparison of current and future technologies. The approach also seeks to assist in investment and strategic decision making expediting future deployment of wave energy harvesting in South Africa.

Keywords: Cost of energy, tool, wave energy converter, WEC-Sim.

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Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Qinqin Cui, Xingwan Ren

Abstract:

Based on multivariate statistical analysis theory, this paper uses the principal component analysis method, Mahalanobis distance analysis method and fitting method to establish the photovoltaic health model to evaluate the health of photovoltaic panels. First of all, according to weather conditions, the photovoltaic panel variable data are classified into five categories: sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, overcast. The health of photovoltaic panels in these five types of weather is studied. Secondly, a scatterplot of the relationship between the amount of electricity produced by each kind of weather and other variables was plotted. It was found that the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic panels has a significant nonlinear relationship with time. The fitting method was used to fit the relationship between the amount of weather generated and the time, and the nonlinear equation was obtained. Then, using the principal component analysis method to analyze the independent variables under five kinds of weather conditions, according to the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, it was found that three types of weather such as overcast, foggy, and sunny meet the conditions for factor analysis, while cloudy and rainy weather do not satisfy the conditions for factor analysis. Therefore, through the principal component analysis method, the main components of overcast weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. The main component of foggy weather is temperature, and the main components of sunny weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. Cloudy and rainy weather require analysis of all of their variables, namely temperature, AQI, pm2.5, solar radiation intensity and time. Finally, taking the variable values in sunny weather as observed values, taking the main components of cloudy, foggy, overcast and rainy weather as sample data, the Mahalanobis distances between observed value and these sample values are obtained. A comparative analysis was carried out to compare the degree of deviation of the Mahalanobis distance to determine the health of the photovoltaic panels under different weather conditions. It was found that the weather conditions in which the Mahalanobis distance fluctuations ranged from small to large were: foggy, cloudy, overcast and rainy.

Keywords: Fitting, principal component analysis, Mahalanobis distance, SPSS, MATLAB.

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Authors: Vujica Lazovic, Tamara Djurickovic

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Creation of information society, or in other words, a society based on knowledge, has wide consequences, both on individual and complete society, and in general – on a economy of one country. Development and implementation of ICT represents a stimulant for economic growth. On individual level, knowledge, skills and information gathered using ICT, are expanding individual possibilities of persons, enabling them to have access to timely sensitive information, such as market prices or investment conditions, possibilities to access Government-s or private development funds, etc. By doing so, productivity is increased both on individual and national level and therefore social wellbeing in general. In one word, creation of information society - a knowledge society is happening. This work will describe challenges and strategies that will follow the development as well as obstacles in creating information society – knowledge society in Montenegro.

Keywords: eDevelopment, eTransformation, informationsociety, knowledge economy

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Authors: G. Gavrilovs, O. Borscevskis

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This paper describes interconnection between technical and economical making decision. The reason of this dealing could be different: poor technical condition, change of substation (electrical network) regime, power transformer owner budget deficit and increasing of tariff on electricity. Establishing of recommended practice as well as to give general advice and guidance in economical sector, testing, diagnostic power transformers to establish its conditions, identify problems and provide potential remedies.

Keywords: Diagnostic results, load forecasting, power supplysystem, replacement of power transformer.

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Authors: Nang Saw Yuzana Kya ing, Wunna Swe

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Photovoltaic (PV) systems provides a viable means of power generation for applications like powering residential appliances, electrification of villages in rural areas, refrigeration and water pumping. Photovoltaic-power generation is reliable. The operation and maintenance costs are very low. Since Myanmar is a land of plentiful sunshine, especially in central and southern regions of the country, the solar energy could hopefully become the final solution to its energy supply problem in rural area.

Keywords: Myanmar, Standalone PV Inverter, PV WaterPumping, Design Analysis, Induction Motor Driving System

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Authors: Yan Wang, Yasushi Asami, Yukio Sadahiro

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In urban context, urban nodes such as amenity or hazard will certainly affect house price, while classic hedonic analysis will employ distance variables measured from each urban nodes. However, effects from distances to facilities on house prices generally do not represent the true price of the property. Distance variables measured on the same surface are suffering a problem called multicollinearity, which is usually presented as magnitude variance and mean value in regression, errors caused by instability. In this paper, we provided a theoretical framework to identify and gather the data with less bias, and also provided specific sampling method on locating the sample region to avoid the spatial multicollinerity problem in three distance variable’s case.

Keywords: Hedonic regression, urban node, distance variables, multicollinerity, collinearity.

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Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

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Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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Authors: Hamed Sabahno

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In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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Authors: A. M. Hasna

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Today global warming, climate change and energy supply are of greater concern as it is widely realized that the planet earth does not provide an infinite capacity for absorbing human industrialization in the 21st century. The aim of this paper is to analyze upstream and downstream electricity production in selected case studies: a coal power plant, a pump system and a microwave oven covering and consumption to explore the position of energy efficiency in engineering sustainability. Collectively, the analysis presents energy efficiency as a major pathway towards sustainability that requires an inclusive and a holistic supply chain response in the engineering design process.

Keywords: Sustainability, technology, efficiency, engineering, energy.

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Authors: Tomomi Uchiyama, Tomoko Okayama, Yukio Ide

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This study is concerned with the development of a micro-hydraulic turbine for power generation installed in sewer pipes. The runner has a circular hollow around the central (rotating) axis so that solid materials included in water can be easily flow through the runner without blocking the turbine. The laboratory experiments are also conducted. The hollow is very effective to make polyester fibers pass through the turbine. The guide vane is useful to heighten the turbine performance. But it is easily blocked by the fibers, making the turbine lose the function.

Keywords: Generation of electricity, micro-hydraulic turbine, sewage, sewer pipe.

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Antonios Maniatis

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The present paper focuses on human rights to the water and to the energy and has a scope to promote the legal status on sustainable construction. The right to water constitutes a typical example of 3G fundamental rights, like the right to enjoyment of energy, particularly of electricity, whilst the right to energy efficiency is a right of fourth generation. Both rights to water and energy are examined through their consecration in the framework of the above-mentioned generations. It results that not only decision-makers but also citizens should fight for the further consecration and adequate use of these crucial rights, having to do with the urgent problem of climate change and the sustainable development. The time for the principle of water and energy “rule of law” has come.

Keywords: Climate change law, energy (en + ergon) efficiency, fundamental rights, prosumer, water.

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Authors: Jianfeng Li, Feng Jin, Xiaoyu Yang

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This paper applies fuzzy clustering algorithm in classifying real estate companies in China according to some general financial indexes, such as income per share, share accumulation fund, net profit margins, weighted net assets yield and shareholders' equity. By constructing and normalizing initial partition matrix, getting fuzzy similar matrix with Minkowski metric and gaining the transitive closure, the dynamic fuzzy clustering analysis for real estate companies is shown clearly that different clustered result change gradually with the threshold reducing, and then, it-s shown there is the similar relationship with the prices of those companies in stock market. In this way, it-s great valuable in contrasting the real estate companies- financial condition in order to grasp some good chances of investment, and so on.

Keywords: Fuzzy clustering algorithm, data mining, real estate company, financial analysis.

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Authors: Tomáš Brabenec

Abstract:

Cost contribution arrangements (CCAs) and Cost sharing agreements (CCAs) belong to the tools of modern finance management. Costs spend by associated enterprises on developing producing or obtaining assets, services or rights (in general - benefits) are used for tax optimizing too. The main purpose of joint research and development, producing or obtaining benefits is to lower these costs as much as possible or to maximize the benefits. In this article is mentioned the problematic of transfer pricing and arm's length principle with connection of CCAs, CSAs. Next, there is mentioned how to settle participation shares of the total cost and benefits contributions with respect to the OECD Transfer pricing for MNEs Guidelines and with respect to other significant regulations.

Keywords: Arm's length principle, Cost contribution arrangements, Cost sharing agreements, Reasonable anticipated benefits, Relevant costs, Transfer prices.

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Authors: Josip Visković, Ana Rimac Smiljanić, Ines Ivić

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Housing loans play an important role in CEE countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans to households and their importance for economic activity and growth in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.

Keywords: CEE countries, Croatia, demand determinants, housing loans.

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