Search results for: economic impact; large transport infrastructure; economic assessment.

Authors: N. Miklavčič, U. Kugovnik, N. Galkina, P. Ribarič, R. Vončina

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Today the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is critical also for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models.

Keywords: Measurement uncertainty, microscale meteorological model, CALMET meteorological station, orthogonal regression.

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Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi

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Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.

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Authors: Fadl M. Ba-Alwi, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

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In this paper a novel algorithm is proposed that integrates the process of fuzzy hierarchy generation and rule discovery for automated discovery of Production Rules with Fuzzy Hierarchy (PRFH) in large databases.A concept of frequency matrix (Freq) introduced to summarize large database that helps in minimizing the number of database accesses, identification and removal of irrelevant attribute values and weak classes during the fuzzy hierarchy generation.Experimental results have established the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Data Mining, Degree of subsumption, Freq matrix, Fuzzy hierarchy.

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Authors: Rumena D. Stancheva, Ilona I. Iatcheva

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In working mode some unexpected changes could be arise in inner structure of electromagnetic device. They influence modification in electromagnetic field propagation map. The field values at an observed boundary are also changed. The development of the process has to be watched because the arising structural changes would provoke the device to be gone out later. The probabilistic assessment of the state is possible to be made. The numerical assessment points if the resulting changes have only accidental character or they are due to the essential inner structural disturbances. The presented application example is referring to the 200MW turbine-generator. A part of the stator core end teeth zone is simulated broken. Quasi three-dimensional electromagnetic and temperature field are solved applying FEM. The stator core state diagnosis is proposed to be solved as an identification problem on the basis of a statistical criterion.

Keywords: Identification, structural disturbance, statistical criterion.

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Authors: Tosin Osasona

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The Nigeria Police Force bears the constitutional mandate as the primary policing agency for the protection of life and property within Nigeria; however, the police have an historical ill-reputation for corruption, ineptitude and impunity. Using the institutional theory of police as the framework of analysis, the paper argues that the performance of the police in Nigeria mirrors the dominant political, social and economic institutions and the structural environment of the Nigerian state. The article puts in perspective the deliberate political decision to underfund the police, leaving officers of the force the extra task of foraging for funds to undertake the duty that the Nigeria state primarily exists for; the article further explores the nexus between corruption in the police in Nigeria and the issue of funding. The article finds that the Nigerian state, by deliberately under-funding the police, while expecting the agency to perform its duties, has indirectly sanctioned the corruption of the force and approved the cooption of the institution of police and policing for private use in Nigeria.

Keywords: Funding, policing, Nigeria Police Force, corruption.

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Authors: Gesine Hellwig

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Functional imaging procedures for the non-invasive assessment of tissue microcirculation are highly requested, but require a mathematical approach describing the trans- and intercapillary passage of tracer particles. Up to now, two theoretical, for the moment different concepts have been established for tracer kinetic modeling of contrast agent transport in tissues: pharmacokinetic compartment models, which are usually written as coupled differential equations, and the indicator dilution theory, which can be generalized in accordance with the theory of lineartime- invariant (LTI) systems by using a convolution approach. Based on mathematical considerations, it can be shown that also in the case of an open two-compartment model well-known from functional imaging, the concentration-time course in tissue is given by a convolution, which allows a separation of the arterial input function from a system function being the impulse response function, summarizing the available information on tissue microcirculation. Due to this reason, it is possible to integrate the open two-compartment model into the system-theoretic concept of indicator dilution theory (IDT) and thus results known from IDT remain valid for the compartment approach. According to the long number of applications of compartmental analysis, even for a more general context similar solutions of the so-called forward problem can already be found in the extensively available appropriate literature of the seventies and early eighties. Nevertheless, to this day, within the field of biomedical imaging – not from the mathematical point of view – there seems to be a trench between both approaches, which the author would like to get over by exemplary analysis of the well-known model.

Keywords: Functional imaging, Tracer kinetic modeling, LTIsystem, Indicator dilution theory / convolution approach, Two-Compartment model.

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Authors: Victor A. Naumenko, Yuriy A. Tyulenev, Alla A. Kushch

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The objective of current issue was to develop a model of testicular herpes simplex virus (HSV) type I infection for assessment of viral effect on fertility. 56 male mice were inoculated intraperitoneally with different concentrations of HSV on 8 day post partum. It was revealed that the optimal dose was 100 plaque forming units per mice as it provided testicular infection in 100% of survivors. HSV proteins were detected both in somatic and germ cells (spermatogonia, spermatocytes, spermatides). Although DNA load in testis was descending from 3 to 28 days post infection only 12.5% of infected males had offspring after mating with uninfected females comparing to 87.5% in control (p=0.012). These results are the first direct evidence for HSV impact in male sterility. Prepuberal mice appeared to be a suitable model for investigation of pathogenesis of virus-associated fertility disorders.

Keywords: Herpes simplex virus type I, male fertility, prepuberal mice, spermatogenesis.

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Authors: A. Cho, H. Sanyal, J. Cataldo

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A quantitative analysis of the different variables on both the South and North green roofs of the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center was taken to find mathematical relationships between net radiation and evapotranspiration (ET), average outside temperature, and the lysimeter weight. Groups of datasets were analyzed, and the relationships were plotted on linear and semi-log graphs to find consistent relationships. Antecedent conditions for each rainstorm were also recorded and plotted against the volumetric water difference within the lysimeter. The first relation was the inverse parabolic relationship between the lysimeter weight and the net radiation and ET. The peaks and valleys of the lysimeter weight corresponded to valleys and peaks in the net radiation and ET respectively, with the 8/22/15 and 1/22/16 datasets showing this trend. The U-shaped and inverse U-shaped plots of the two variables coincided, indicating an inverse relationship between the two variables. Cross variable relationships were examined through graphs with lysimeter weight as the dependent variable on the y-axis. 10 out of 16 of the plots of lysimeter weight vs. outside temperature plots had R² values > 0.9. Antecedent conditions were also recorded for rainstorms, categorized by the amount of precipitation accumulating during the storm. Plotted against the change in the volumetric water weight difference within the lysimeter, a logarithmic regression was found with large R² values. The datasets were compared using the Mann Whitney U-test to see if the datasets were statistically different, using a significance level of 5%; all datasets compared showed a U test statistic value, proving the null hypothesis of the datasets being different from being true.

Keywords: Green roof, green infrastructure, Javits Center, evapotranspiration, net radiation, lysimeter.

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Authors: Qasim Khan, Furkan Ahmad, Asfar A. Khan, M. Saad Alam, Faiz Ahmad

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In this paper, partial discharge analysis is performed in cavities artificially created in insulation. The setup is according with Cigre-II Method. Circular Samples created from Perspex Sheet with different configuration with changing number of cavities. Assessment of insulation health can be performed by Partial Discharge measurement as this has been found to be important means of condition monitoring. The experiments are done using MPD 540, which is a modern partial discharge measurement system. By analyzing the PD activity obtained for various voids/cavities, it is observed that the PD voltages show variation for cavity’s diameter, depth even for its ratios. This can be employed for scrutiny of insulation system.

Keywords: Partial discharges, condition monitoring, MPD 540, cavities/defects, degradation and corrosion, PMMA.

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Authors: Powei Happiness Kerry

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Introducing wireless technologies in Nigeria have improved the quality of lives of Nigerians, however, not everyone sees it in that light. The paper on the environmental impact of wireless technologies in Nigeria summarizes the scholarly views on the impact of wireless technologies on the environment, beaming its searchlight on 5G and internet of things in Nigeria while also exploring the theory of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The study used a qualitative research method to gather important data from relevant sources and contextually draws inference from the derived data. The study concludes that the Federal Government of Nigeria, before agreeing to any latest development in the world of wireless technologies, should weigh the implications and deliberate extensively with all stalk holders putting into consideration the confirmation it will receive from the National Assembly.  

Keywords: IoT, 5G, ICT, electromagnetic radiation, wave, field, radiofrequency.

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Authors: Yingying Ding

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This study presents a methodology of specialized translation with the objective of helping teachers to improve the strategies in teaching translation. In order to allow students to acquire skills to translate specialized texts, they need to become familiar with the semantic and syntactic features of source texts and target texts. The aim of our study is to use a corpus-based approach in the teaching of specialized translation between Chinese and Italian. This study proposes to construct a specialized Chinese - Italian comparable corpus that consists of 50 economic contracts from the domain of food. With the help of AntConc, we propose to compile a comparable corpus in for translation teaching purposes. This paper attempts to provide insight into how teachers could benefit from comparable corpus in the teaching of specialized translation from Italian into Chinese and through some examples of passive sentences how students could learn to apply different strategies for translating appropriately the voice.

Keywords: Corpus-based approach, translation teaching, specialized translation.

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Authors: Grigoris Giannarakis, Nikolaos Litinas, Ioannis Theotokas

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The aim of the study is to investigate a number of characteristics of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) indicators that should be adopted by CSR assessment methodologies. For the purpose of this paper, a survey among the Greek companies that belong to FTSE 20 in Athens Exchange (FTSE/Athex-20) has been conducted, as these companies are expected to pioneer in the field of CSR. The results show consensus as regards the characteristics of indicators such as the need for the adoption of general and specific sector indicators, financial and non-financial indicators, the origin and the weight rate. However, the results are contradictory concerning the appropriate number of indicators for the assessment of CSR and the unit of measurement. Finally, the company-s sector is a more important dimension of CSR than the size and the country where the company operates. The purpose of this paper is to standardize the main characteristics of CSR indicators.

Keywords: Corporate social responsibility, Greece, Indicators

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Authors: Mamoon M. Atout

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The Middle East Gulf region has witnessed rapid growth and development in many areas over the last two decades. The development of the real-estate sector, construction industry and infrastructure projects are a major share of the development that has participated in the civilization of the countries of the Gulf. Construction industry projects were planned and managed by different types of experts, who came from all over the world having different types of experiences in construction management and industry. Some of these projects were completed on time, while many were not, due to many accumulating factors. Many accumulated factors are considered as the principle reason for the problem experienced at the project construction stage, which reflected negatively on the project success. Specific causes of delay have been identified by construction managers to avoid any unexpected delays through proper analysis and considerations to some implications such as risk assessment and analysis for many potential problems to ensure that projects will be delivered on time. Construction management implications were adopted and considered by project managers who have experience and knowledge in applying the techniques of the system of engineering construction management. The aim of this research is to determine the benefits of the implications of construction management by the construction team and level of considerations of the techniques and processes during the project development and construction phases to avoid any delay in the projects. It also aims to determine the factors that participate to project completion delays in case project managers are not well committed to their roles and responsibilities. The results of the analysis will determine the necessity of the applications required by the project team to avoid the causes of delays that help them deliver projects on time, e.g. verifying tender documents, quantities and preparing the construction method of the project.

Keywords: Construction management, control process, cost control, planning and scheduling, roles and responsibilities.

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Authors: Wimalin S. Laosiritaworn, Pongsak Holimchayachotikul

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this article proposed a methodology for computer numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called 'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have saved in the case study company.

Keywords: Computer Numerical Control, Data Mining, HardDisk Drive.

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Authors: P Chockalingam, K Kok, R Vijayaram

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This paper presents a comparative study on dry and wet grinding through experimental investigation in the grinding of CSM glass fibre reinforced polymer laminates using a pink aluminium oxide wheel. Different sets of experiments were performed to study the effects of the independent grinding parameters such as grinding wheel speed, feed and depth of cut on dependent performance criteria such as cutting forces and surface finish. Experimental conditions were laid out using design of experiment central composite design. An effective coolant was sought in this study to minimise cutting forces and surface roughness for GFRP laminates grinding. Test results showed that the use of coolants reduces surface roughness, although not necessarily the cutting forces. These research findings provide useful economic machining solution in terms of optimized grinding conditions for grinding CSM GFRP.

Keywords: Chopped Strand Mat GFRP laminates, Dry and Wet Grinding, Cutting Forces, Surface Finish.

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Authors: Roman Asatryan

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The decision-making processes in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) among firms in the airlines industry borders on the benefits that accrue to firms through those investments. The crux of the matter is how firms can quantify the benefits derived from such investments. This paper analyses the cost benefit adjustment strategies for firms in the airline industry in their CSR strategy adoption and implementation. The paper discusses the CBA model in order to understand the ways airlines can reduce costs and increase returns on CSR, or balance the cost and benefits. The analysis indicates that, economic concepts especially the CBA are useful, though they are not without challenges. This paper concludes that the CBA model gives a basic understanding of the motivations for investing in intangible assets like CSR. It sets the tone for formulating relevant hypothesis in empirical studies in investment in CSR and other intangible assets in business operations.

Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, Corporate Social Responsibility, airline industry.

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Authors: Muhammad Arslan Usman, Muhammad Rehan Usman, Soo Young Shin

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Live video streaming is one of the most widely used service among end users, yet it is a big challenge for the network operators in terms of quality. The only way to provide excellent Quality of Experience (QoE) to the end users is continuous monitoring of live video streaming. For this purpose, there are several objective algorithms available that monitor the quality of the video in a live stream. Subjective tests play a very important role in fine tuning the results of objective algorithms. As human perception is considered to be the most reliable source for assessing the quality of a video stream subjective tests are conducted in order to develop more reliable objective algorithms. Temporal impairments in a live video stream can have a negative impact on the end users. In this paper we have conducted subjective evaluation tests on a set of video sequences containing temporal impairment known as frame freezing. Frame Freezing is considered as a transmission error as well as a hardware error which can result in loss of video frames on the reception side of a transmission system. In our subjective tests, we have performed tests on videos that contain a single freezing event and also for videos that contain multiple freezing events. We have recorded our subjective test results for all the videos in order to give a comparison on the available No Reference (NR) objective algorithms. Finally, we have shown the performance of no reference algorithms used for objective evaluation of videos and suggested the algorithm that works better. The outcome of this study shows the importance of QoE and its effect on human perception. The results for the subjective evaluation can serve the purpose for validating objective algorithms.

Keywords: Objective evaluation, subjective evaluation, quality of experience (QoE), video quality assessment (VQA).

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Authors: Andrew Jester, Ross Lee, Pritpal Singh

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As the world transitions to a more sustainable energy economy, the deployment of energy storage technologies is expected to increase to develop a more resilient grid system. However, current technologies are associated with various environmental and safety issues throughout their entire lifecycle; therefore, a new battery technology is desirable for grid applications to curtail these risks. Biological cells, such as human neurons and electrocytes in the electric eel, can serve as a more sustainable design template for a new bio-inspired (i.e., biomimetic) battery. Within biological cells, an electrochemical gradient across the cell membrane forms the membrane potential, which serves as the driving force for ion transport into/out of the cell akin to the charging/discharging of a battery cell. This work serves as the first step for developing such a biomimetic battery cell, starting with the fabrication and characterization of ion-selective membranes to facilitate ion transport through the cell. Performance characteristics (e.g., cell voltage, power density, specific energy, roundtrip efficiency) for the cell under investigation are compared to incumbent battery technologies and biological cells to assess the readiness level for this emerging technology. Using a Na+-Form Nafion-117 membrane, the cell in this work successfully demonstrated behavior like human neurons; these findings will inform how cell components can be re-engineered to enhance device performance.

Keywords: Battery, biomimetic, electrocytes, human neurons, ion-selective membranes, membrane potential.

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Authors: Mohd Iqbal Ridwan, Kerk Lee Yen, Aminuddin Musa, Bahisham Yunus

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Protective relays are components of a protection system in a power system domain that provides decision making element for correct protection and fault clearing operations. Failure of the protection devices may reduce the integrity and reliability of the power system protection that will impact the overall performance of the power system. Hence it is imperative for power utilities to assess the reliability of protective relays to assure it will perform its intended function without failure. This paper will discuss the application of reliability analysis using statistical method called Life Data Analysis in Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), a government linked power utility company in Malaysia, namely Transmission Division, to assess and evaluate the reliability of numerical overcurrent protective relays from two different manufacturers.

Keywords: Life data analysis, Protective relays, Reliability, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Sachin Kumar, Vasilis Sotiris, Michael Pecht

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With increasing complexity in electronic systems there is a need for system level anomaly detection and fault isolation. Anomaly detection based on vector similarity to a training set is used in this paper through two approaches, one the preserves the original information, Mahalanobis Distance (MD), and the other that compresses the data into its principal components, Projection Pursuit Analysis. These methods have been used to detect deviations in system performance from normal operation and for critical parameter isolation in multivariate environments. The study evaluates the detection capability of each approach on a set of test data with known faults against a baseline set of data representative of such “healthy" systems.

Keywords: Mahalanobis distance, Principle components, Projection pursuit, Health assessment, Anomaly.

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Authors: Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Kristjan Kuhi, Ott Koppel

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Transportation authorities need to provide the services and facilities that are critical to every country-s well-being and development. Management of the road network is becoming increasingly challenging as demands increase and resources are limited. Public sector institutions are integrating performance information into budgeting, managing and reporting via implementing performance measurement systems. In the face of growing challenges, performance measurement of road networks is attracting growing interest in many countries. The large scale of public investments makes the maintenance and development of road networks an area where such systems are an important assessment tool. Transportation agencies have been using performance measurement and modeling as part of pavement and bridge management systems. Recently the focus has been on extending the process to applications in road construction and maintenance systems, operations and safety programs, and administrative structures and procedures. To eliminate failure and dysfunctional consequences the importance of obtaining objective data and implementing evaluation instrument where necessary is presented in this paper

Keywords: Key performance indicators, performance measurement system, evaluation, system architecture.

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Authors: Yi Jianjun, Sun Yingce, Hu Diqing, Li Chenggang

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Modularized design approach can facilitate the modeling of complex systems and support behavior analysis and simulation in an iterative and thus complex engineering process, by using encapsulated submodels of components and of their interfaces. Therefore it can improve the design efficiency and simplify the solving complicated problem. Multi-drivers off-road vehicle is comparatively complicated. Driving-line is an important core part to a vehicle; it has a significant contribution to the performance of a vehicle. Multi-driver off-road vehicles have complex driving-line, so its performance is heavily dependent on the driving-line. A typical off-road vehicle-s driving-line system consists of torque converter, transmission, transfer case and driving-axles, which transfer the power, generated by the engine and distribute it effectively to the driving wheels according to the road condition. According to its main function, this paper puts forward a modularized approach for designing and evaluation of vehicle-s driving-line. It can be used to effectively estimate the performance of driving-line during concept design stage. Through appropriate analysis and assessment method, an optimal design can be reached. This method has been applied to the practical vehicle design, it can improve the design efficiency and is convenient to assess and validate the performance of a vehicle, especially of multi-drivers off-road vehicle.

Keywords: Heavy-loaded Off-road Vehicle, Power Driving-line, Modularized Design, Performance Assessment.

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Authors: G. Erkomaishvili, M. Kobalava, T. Lazariashvili, N. Damenia

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Current state of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Georgia is analyzed and evaluated in the paper, the existing legislative background for regulating investments and stimulating policies to attract investments are shown. It is noted that in developing countries encouragement of investment activity, support and implementation are of the most important tasks, implying a consistent investment policy, investor-friendly tax regime and the legal system, reducing administrative barriers and restrictions, fare competitive conditions and business development infrastructure. The work deals with the determining factor of FDIs and the main directions of stimulation, as well as prospective industries where new investments are needed. Contributing and hindering factors and stimulating measures are analyzed. As a result of the research, the direct and indirect factors attracting FDI have been identified. Facilitating factors to FDI inflow are as follows: simplicity of starting business, geopolitical location, low taxes, access to credit, ease of ownership registration, natural resources, low burden of regulations, low level of corruption and low crime rates. Hindering factors to FDI inflow are as follows: small market, lack of policy for attracting investments, low qualification of the workforce (despite the large number of unemployed people it is difficult to find workers with necessary special skills and qualifications), high interest rates, instability of national currency exchange rate, presence of conflict zones within the country and so forth.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, investment attracting policies, investor, reinvestment.

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Authors: Anshu Gupta

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Quality evaluation of urban environment is an integral part of efficient urban environment planning and management. The development of fuzzy set theory (FST) and the introduction of FST to the urban study field attempts to incorporate the gradual variation and avoid loss of information. Urban environmental quality assessment pertain to interpretation and forecast of the urban environmental quality according to the national regulation about the permitted content of contamination for the sake of protecting human health and subsistence environment . A strategic motor vehicle control strategy has to be proposed to mitigate the air pollution in the city. There is no well defined guideline for the assessment of urban air pollution and no systematic study has been reported so far for Indian cities. The methodology adopted may be useful in similar cities of India. Remote sensing & GIS can play significant role in mapping air pollution.

Keywords: GIS, Pollution, Remote Sensing, Urban.

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Authors: Mario Spremić, Natalija Kokolek, Božidar Jaković, Jurica Šimurina

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This paper deals with various questions related to functionality and providing banking services in the European union on the Internet. Due to the fact that we live in the information technologies era, the Internet become a new space for doing economic and business activities in all areas, and especially important in banking. Accepting the busy tempo of life, in the past several years electronic banking has become necessity and a must for most users of banking services. On a sample of 300 web sites of the banks operating in European Union (EU) we conduct the research on the functionality of e-banking services offered through banks web sites with the key objective to reveal to what extent the information technologies are used in their business operations. Characteristics of EU banks websites will be examined and compared to the basic groups of business activities on the web. Also some recommendations for the successful bank web sites will be provided.

Keywords: Electronic banking, electronic business, European Union banks, internet.

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Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: I. Derek Kaka’an, P. Smolianov, D. Koh Choon Lian, S. Dion, C. Schoen, J. Norberg

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This study was designed to examine mass participation and elite football performance in Nigeria with reference to advance international football management practices. Over 200 sources of literature on sport delivery systems were analyzed to construct a globally applicable model of elite football integrated with mass participation, comprising of the following three levels: macro- (socio-economic, cultural, legislative, and organizational), meso- (infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs) and micro-level (operations, processes, and methodologies for development of individual athletes). The model has received scholarly validation and showed to be a framework for program analysis that is not culturally bound. The Smolianov and Zakus model has been employed for further understanding of sport systems such as US soccer, US Rugby, swimming, tennis, and volleyball as well as Russian and Dutch swimming. A questionnaire was developed using the above-mentioned model. Survey questions were validated by 12 experts including academicians, executives from sport governing bodies, football coaches, and administrators. To identify best practices and determine areas for improvement of football in Nigeria, 120 coaches completed the questionnaire. Useful exemplars and possible improvements were further identified through semi-structured discussions with 10 Nigerian football administrators and experts. Finally, content analysis of Nigeria Football Federation’s website and organizational documentation was conducted. This paper focuses on the meso-level of Nigerian football delivery, particularly infrastructures, personnel, and services enabling sport programs. This includes training centers, competition systems, and intellectual services. Results identified remarkable achievements coupled with great potential to further develop football in different types of public and private organizations in Nigeria. These include: assimilating football competitions with other cultural and educational activities, providing favorable conditions for employees of all possible organizations to partake and help in managing football programs and events, providing football coaching integrated with counseling for prevention of antisocial conduct, and improving cooperation between football programs and organizations for peace-making and advancement of international relations, tourism, and socio-economic development. Accurate reporting of the sports programs from the media should be encouraged through staff training for better awareness of various events. The systematic integration of these meso-level practices into the balanced development of mass and high-performance football will contribute to international sport success as well as national health, education, and social harmony.

Keywords: Football, high performance, mass participation, Nigeria, sport development.

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Authors: Tatjana Eitrich, Bruno Lang

Abstract:

This work deals with aspects of support vector machine learning for large-scale data mining tasks. Based on a decomposition algorithm for support vector machine training that can be run in serial as well as shared memory parallel mode we introduce a transformation of the training data that allows for the usage of an expensive generalized kernel without additional costs. We present experiments for the Gaussian kernel, but usage of other kernel functions is possible, too. In order to further speed up the decomposition algorithm we analyze the critical problem of working set selection for large training data sets. In addition, we analyze the influence of the working set sizes onto the scalability of the parallel decomposition scheme. Our tests and conclusions led to several modifications of the algorithm and the improvement of overall support vector machine learning performance. Our method allows for using extensive parameter search methods to optimize classification accuracy.

Keywords: Support Vector Machine Training, Multi-ParameterKernels, Shared Memory Parallel Computing, Large Data

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Authors: Moiz S. Vohra, Nagalingam Arun Prasanth, Wei L. Tan, S. H. Yeo

Abstract:

The understanding of generation and collapse of acoustic cavitation bubbles are prerequisites for application of cavitation erosion. Microbubbles generated due to rapid fluctuation of pressure induced by propagation of ultrasonic wave lead to formation of high velocity microjets and or shock waves upon collapse. Due to vast application of ultrasonic, it is important to characterize and understand cavitation collapse pressure under the radiating surface at different conditions. A comparative investigation is carried out to determine impact load and dynamic pressure distribution exerted upon bubble collapse using thin film pressure sensors. Measurements were recorded at different input conditions such as amplitude, stand-off distance, insertion depth of the horn inside the liquid and pulse on-off time of acoustic vibrations. Impact force of 2.97 N is recorded at amplitude of 108 μm and stand-off distance of 1 mm from the sensor film, whereas impulsive force as low as 0.4 N is recorded at amplitude of 12 μm and stand-off distance of 5 mm from the sensor film. The results drawn from the investigation indicated that variety of impact loads can be achieved by controlling generation and collapse of bubbles, making it suitable to use for numerous application.

Keywords: Ultrasonic cavitation, bubble collapse, pressure mapping sensor, impact load.

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