Search results for: statistical evaluation.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3345

Search results for: statistical evaluation.

1545 Traffic Flow Prediction using Adaboost Algorithm with Random Forests as a Weak Learner

Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov

Abstract:

Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.

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1544 Pavement Roughness Prediction Systems: A Bump Integrator Approach

Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

Abstract:

Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipments like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: Bump Integrator, Pavement Distresses, Roughness Index, SPSS.

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1543 Evaluation of the Antifungal and Antioxidant Activities of the Leaf Extract of Aloe vera(Aloe barbadensis Miller)

Authors: Tin A. Khaing

Abstract:

Aloe vera has been used worldwide both for pharmaceutical, food, and cosmetic industries due to the plethora of biological activities of some of its metabolites. The aim of this study was to evaluate the antifungal and antioxidant activities of the leaf extract. The antifungal activity was determined by the agar-well diffusion method against plant and human fungal pathogens. The methanol and ethanol portions of the extracts studied were more bioactive than ethyl acetate portion. It was also observed that the activity was more pronounced on plant pathogen than human pathogen except Candida albicans. This is an indication that the extract has the potential to treat plant fungal infections. The Aloe extract showed the significant antioxidant activity by the DPPH radical scavenging method. Therefore, the Aloe extract provided as natural antioxidant has been used in health foods for medical and preservative purposes.

Keywords: Aloe vera, antifungal, antioxidant, DPPH

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1542 Spread Spectrum Image Watermarking for Secured Multimedia Data Communication

Authors: Tirtha S. Das, Ayan K. Sau, Subir K. Sarkar

Abstract:

Digital watermarking is a way to provide the facility of secure multimedia data communication besides its copyright protection approach. The Spread Spectrum modulation principle is widely used in digital watermarking to satisfy the robustness of multimedia signals against various signal-processing operations. Several SS watermarking algorithms have been proposed for multimedia signals but very few works have discussed on the issues responsible for secure data communication and its robustness improvement. The current paper has critically analyzed few such factors namely properties of spreading codes, proper signal decomposition suitable for data embedding, security provided by the key, successive bit cancellation method applied at decoder which have greater impact on the detection reliability, secure communication of significant signal under camouflage of insignificant signals etc. Based on the analysis, robust SS watermarking scheme for secure data communication is proposed in wavelet domain and improvement in secure communication and robustness performance is reported through experimental results. The reported result also shows improvement in visual and statistical invisibility of the hidden data.

Keywords: Spread spectrum modulation, spreading code, signaldecomposition, security, successive bit cancellation

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1541 Hybridizing Genetic Algorithm with Biased Chance Local Search

Authors: Mehdi Basikhasteh, Mohamad A. Movafaghpour

Abstract:

This paper explores university course timetabling problem. There are several characteristics that make scheduling and timetabling problems particularly difficult to solve: they have huge search spaces, they are often highly constrained, they require sophisticated solution representation schemes, and they usually require very time-consuming fitness evaluation routines. Thus standard evolutionary algorithms lack of efficiency to deal with them. In this paper we have proposed a memetic algorithm that incorporates the problem specific knowledge such that most of chromosomes generated are decoded into feasible solutions. Generating vast amount of feasible chromosomes makes the progress of search process possible in a time efficient manner. Experimental results exhibit the advantages of the developed Hybrid Genetic Algorithm than the standard Genetic Algorithm.

Keywords: University Course Timetabling, Memetic Algorithm, Biased Chance Assignment, Optimization.

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1540 Prediction of Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Dynamics in an Iowan Agriculture Watershed

Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

Abstract:

In this study, a physically-based, modeling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modeling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the Ksat field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured Ksat values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of Ksat variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities. 

Keywords: Saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools.

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1539 Impact of Negative News on Ethical Fashion: Case Study to Investigate the Effect of Fashion CSR Ad Framing on Purchase Intention

Authors: Dana Lee, Young Chan Kim

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the fashion corporate social responsibility (CSR) ad framing and consumer purchase behaviours with the focus on consumer’s concern and involvement towards fashion brands. A self-completion questionnaire was administered to 200 respondents. Factor analysis and other statistical analyses were applied to test hypotheses. The results suggested that the quality of the product was the most important factor when consumers purchase fashion brand products with high level of responsibility towards unethical practices but surprisingly favourability for fast fashion. Unexpectedly, it was shown that consumers took the plenty of blame, but not much responsibility on buying fast fashion evading their responsibility to CSR ad, and their purchase intentions remained unchanged. The result, on the other hand, showed that fashion CSR ads can significantly moderate individuals’ emotions even though this had no significant correlation with the purchase intentions. Despite the limited sample size and geographical region, this research has important implications for contemporary fashion brands that use ad framing to understand how consumers’ involvement and concernedness toward the CSR actions in ad, influence their favourability (purchase intention) for fashion brands.

Keywords: Framing effect, CSR advertisements, consumer behaviour, purchase intention.

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1538 Formulation and Evaluation of Vaginal Suppositories Containing Lactobacillus

Authors: Sanae Kaewnopparat, Nattha Kaewnopparat

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to develop vaginal suppository containing lactobacillus. Four kinds of vaginal suppositories containing Lactobacillus paracasei HL32 were formulated: 1) a conventional suppository with Witepsol H-15 as a base, 2) a conventional suppository with mixed polyethylene glycols (PEGs) as a base, 3) a hollow-type suppository with Witepsol H-15 as a base and 4) a hollow-type suppository with mixed PEGs as a base. The release studies demonstrated that the hollow-type suppository with mixed PEGs as the base gave the highest release of L. paracasei HL32 and was microbiological stable after storage at 2- 8°C over the period of 3 months.

Keywords: Lactobacillus paracasei HL32, vaginal suppository, release study, hollow-type, viability.

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1537 Weight Comparison of Oil and Dry Type Distribution Transformers

Authors: Murat Toren, Mehmet Çelebi

Abstract:

Reducing the weight of transformers while providing good performance, cost reduction and increased efficiency is important. Weight is one of the most significant factors in all electrical machines, and as such, many transformer design parameters are related to weight calculations. This study presents a comparison of the weight of oil type transformers and dry type transformer weight. Oil type transformers are mainly used in industry; however, dry type transformers are becoming more widespread in recent years. MATLAB is typically used for designing transformers and design parameters (rated voltages, core loss, etc.) along with design in ANSYS Maxwell. Similar to other studies, this study presented that the dry type transformer option is limited. Moreover, the commonly-used 50 kVA distribution transformers in the industry are oil type and dry type transformers are designed and considered in terms of weight. Currently, the preference for low-cost oil-type transformers would change if costs for dry-type transformer were more competitive. The aim of this study was to compare the weight of transformers, which is a substantial cost factor, and to provide an evaluation about increasing the use of dry type transformers.

Keywords: Weight, oil-type transformers, dry-type transformers.

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1536 Prediction of the Characteristics of Transformer Oil under Different Operation Conditions

Authors: EL-Sayed M. M. EL-Refaie, Mohamed R. Salem, Wael A. Ahmed

Abstract:

Power systems and transformer are intrinsic apparatus, therefore its reliability and safe operation is important to determine their operation conditions, and the industry uses quality control tests in the insulation design of oil filled transformers. Hence the service period effect on AC dielectric strength is significant. The effect of aging on transformer oil physical, chemical and electrical properties was studied using the international testing methods for the evaluation of transformer oil quality. The study was carried out on six transformers operate in the field and for monitoring periods over twenty years. The properties which are strongly time dependent were specified and those which have a great impact on the transformer oil acidity, breakdown voltage and dissolved gas analysis were defined. Several tests on the transformers oil were studied to know the time of purifying or changing it, moreover prediction of the characteristics of it under different operation conditions.

Keywords: Dissolved Gas Analysis, Prediction, Purifying and Changing.

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1535 Power Line Carrier Equipment Supporting IP Traffic Transmission in the Enterprise Networks of Energy Companies

Authors: M. S. Anton Merkulov

Abstract:

This article discusses the questions concerning of creating small packet networks for energy companies with application of high voltage power line carrier equipment (PLC) with functionality of IP traffic transmission. The main idea is to create converged PLC links between substations and dispatching centers where packet data and voice are transmitted in one data flow. The article contents description of basic conception of the network, evaluation of voice traffic transmission parameters, and discussion of header compression techniques in relation to PLC links. The results of exploration show us, that convergent packet PLC links can be very useful in the construction of small packet networks between substations in remote locations, such as deposits or low populated areas.

Keywords: packet PLC, VoIP, time delay, packet traffic, overhead compression

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1534 Applying Fuzzy Decision Making Approach to IT Outsourcing Supplier Selection

Authors: Gülcin Büyüközkan, Mehmet Sakir Ersoy

Abstract:

The decision of information technology (IT) outsourcing requires close attention to the evaluation of supplier selection process because the selection decision involves conflicting multiple criteria and is replete with complex decision making problems. Selecting the most appropriate suppliers is considered an important strategic decision that may impact the performance of outsourcing engagements. The objective of this paper is to aid decision makers to evaluate and assess possible IT outsourcing suppliers. An axiomatic design based fuzzy group decision making is adopted to evaluate supplier alternatives. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the potential of the methodology. KeywordsIT outsourcing, Supplier selection, Multi-criteria decision making, Axiomatic design, Fuzzy logic.

Keywords: IT outsourcing, Supplier selection, Multi-criteria decision making, Axiomatic design, Fuzzy logic

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1533 Fast Cosine Transform to Increase Speed-up and Efficiency of Karhunen-Loève Transform for Lossy Image Compression

Authors: Mario Mastriani, Juliana Gambini

Abstract:

In this work, we present a comparison between two techniques of image compression. In the first case, the image is divided in blocks which are collected according to zig-zag scan. In the second one, we apply the Fast Cosine Transform to the image, and then the transformed image is divided in blocks which are collected according to zig-zag scan too. Later, in both cases, the Karhunen-Loève transform is applied to mentioned blocks. On the other hand, we present three new metrics based on eigenvalues for a better comparative evaluation of the techniques. Simulations show that the combined version is the best, with minor Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE), higher Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) and better image quality. Finally, new technique was far superior to JPEG and JPEG2000.

Keywords: Fast Cosine Transform, image compression, JPEG, JPEG2000, Karhunen-Loève Transform, zig-zag scan.

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1532 French Managers and Their Subordinates’ Well-Being

Authors: B. Gangloff, N. Malleh

Abstract:

Well-being at work has many positive aspects. Our general hypothesis is that employees who feel well-being at work will be positively valued by their superiors, and that this positive value, which evokes the concept of social norms, allows us to assign to well-being at work a normative status. Three populations (line managers, students destined to become human resource managers, and employees) responded to a well-being questionnaire. Managers had to indicate, for each item, if they appreciated (or not) an employee feeling the well-being presented in the item; students had to indicate which items an employee should check if s/he wants to be positively (versus negatively) appreciated by his/her superior; and employees had to indicate to what degree each item corresponded to the well-being they used to feel. Three hypotheses are developed and confirmed: Managers positively value employees feeling some sense of well-being; students are aware of this positivity; spontaneously employees show a state of well-being, which means, knowing that spontaneous self-presentation is often produced by social desirability, that employees are aware of the well-being positivity. These data are discussed under a conceptual and applied angle.

Keywords: Normativity, well-being at work, organization, evaluation.

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1531 A Game Design Framework for Vocational Education

Authors: Heide Lukosch, Roy Van Bussel, Sebastiaan Meijer

Abstract:

Serious games have proven to be a useful instrument to engage learners and increase motivation. Nevertheless, a broadly accepted, practical instructional design approach to serious games does not exist. In this paper, we introduce the use of an instructional design model that has not been applied to serious games yet, and has some advantages compared to other design approaches. We present the case of mechanics mechatronics education to illustrate the close match with timing and role of knowledge and information that the instructional design model prescribes and how this has been translated to a rigidly structured game design. The structured approach answers the learning needs of applicable knowledge within the target group. It combines advantages of simulations with strengths of entertainment games to foster learner-s motivation in the best possible way. A prototype of the game will be evaluated along a well-respected evaluation method within an advanced test setting including test and control group.

Keywords: Serious Gaming, Simulation, Complex Learning.

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1530 Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model in Agile Construction Environment

Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

Abstract:

The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: Assessment, environment, agile, model, risk.

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1529 Experimental Study on Damping Ratios of in-situ Buildings

Authors: Zhiying Zhang, Chongdu Cho

Abstract:

Accurate evaluation of damping ratios involving soilstructure interaction (SSI) effects is the prerequisite for seismic design of in-situ buildings. This study proposes a combined approach to identify damping ratios of SSI systems based on ambient excitation technique. The proposed approach is illustrated with main test process, sampling principle and algorithm steps through an engineering example, as along with its feasibility and validity. The proposed approach is employed for damping ratio identification of 82 buildings in Xi-an, China. Based on the experimental data, the variation range and tendency of damping ratios of these SSI systems, along with the preliminary influence factor, are shown and discussed. In addition, a fitting curve indicates the relation between the damping ratio and fundamental natural period of SSI system.

Keywords: Damping ratio, seismic design, soil-structure interaction, system parameter identification.

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1528 Common Carotid Artery Intima Media Thickness Segmentation Survey

Authors: L. Ashok Kumar, C. Nagarajan

Abstract:

The ultrasound imaging is very popular to diagnosis the disease because of its non-invasive nature. The ultrasound imaging slowly produces low quality images due to the presence of spackle noise and wave interferences. There are several algorithms to be proposed for the segmentation of ultrasound carotid artery images but it requires a certain limit of user interaction. The pixel in an image is highly correlated so the spatial information of surrounding pixels may be considered in the process of image segmentation which improves the results further. When data is highly correlated, one pixel may belong to more than one cluster with different degree of membership. There is an important step to computerize the evaluation of arterial disease severity using segmentation of carotid artery lumen in 2D and 3D ultrasonography and in finding vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques susceptible to rupture which can cause stroke.

Keywords: IMT measurement, Image Segmentation, common carotid artery, internal and external carotid arteries, ultrasound imaging.

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1527 Application of Data Mining Techniques for Tourism Knowledge Discovery

Authors: Teklu Urgessa, Wookjae Maeng, Joong Seek Lee

Abstract:

Application of five implementations of three data mining classification techniques was experimented for extracting important insights from tourism data. The aim was to find out the best performing algorithm among the compared ones for tourism knowledge discovery. Knowledge discovery process from data was used as a process model. 10-fold cross validation method is used for testing purpose. Various data preprocessing activities were performed to get the final dataset for model building. Classification models of the selected algorithms were built with different scenarios on the preprocessed dataset. The outperformed algorithm tourism dataset was Random Forest (76%) before applying information gain based attribute selection and J48 (C4.5) (75%) after selection of top relevant attributes to the class (target) attribute. In terms of time for model building, attribute selection improves the efficiency of all algorithms. Artificial Neural Network (multilayer perceptron) showed the highest improvement (90%). The rules extracted from the decision tree model are presented, which showed intricate, non-trivial knowledge/insight that would otherwise not be discovered by simple statistical analysis with mediocre accuracy of the machine using classification algorithms.

Keywords: Classification algorithms; data mining; tourism; knowledge discovery.

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1526 Evaluation of Salivary Nickel Level during Orthodontic Treatment

Authors: Mudafara S. Bengleil, Juma M. Orfi, Iman Abdelgader

Abstract:

Since nickel is a known toxic and carcinogenic metal, the present study was designed to evaluate the level of nickel released into the saliva of orthodontic patients. Non-stimulated saliva was collected from 18 patients attending The Orthodontic Clinic of Dental Faculty of Benghazi University. Patients were divided into two groups and level of nickel was determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Nickel concentration value (mg/L) in first group prior to starting treatment was 0.097± 0.071. An increase in level of nickel was followed by decrease 4 and 8 weeks after applying the arch wire (0.208± 0.112) and (0.077±0.056 mg/L) respectively. Nickel levels in saliva of the second group were showed minimal variation and ranged from 0.061± 0.044mg/L to 0.083±0.054 throughout period of study. It may be concluded that there could be a release of nickel from the appliances used in first group but it doesn't reach toxic level in saliva.

Keywords: Atomic absorption spectrophotometry, nickel, orthodontic treatment, saliva, toxicity.

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1525 Health Monitoring and Failure Detection of Electronic and Structural Components in Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Authors: Gopi Kandaswamy, P. Balamuralidhar

Abstract:

Fully autonomous small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly being used in many commercial applications. Although a lot of research has been done to develop safe, reliable and durable UAVs, accidents due to electronic and structural failures are not uncommon and pose a huge safety risk to the UAV operators and the public. Hence there is a strong need for an automated health monitoring system for UAVs with a view to minimizing mission failures thereby increasing safety. This paper describes our approach to monitoring the electronic and structural components in a small UAV without the need for additional sensors to do the monitoring. Our system monitors data from four sources; sensors, navigation algorithms, control inputs from the operator and flight controller outputs. It then does statistical analysis on the data and applies a rule based engine to detect failures. This information can then be fed back into the UAV and a decision to continue or abort the mission can be taken automatically by the UAV and independent of the operator. Our system has been verified using data obtained from real flights over the past year from UAVs of various sizes that have been designed and deployed by us for various applications.

Keywords: Fault detection, health monitoring, unmanned aerial vehicles, vibration analysis.

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1524 Validation of the WAsP Model for a Terrain Surrounded by Mountainous Region

Authors: Mohammadamin Zanganeh, Vahid Khalajzadeh

Abstract:

The problems associated with wind predictions of WAsP model in complex terrain are already the target of several studies in the last decade. In this paper, the influence of surrounding orography on accuracy of wind data analysis of a train is investigated. For the case study, a site with complex surrounding orography is considered. This site is located in Manjil, one of the windiest cities of Iran. For having precise evaluation of wind regime in the site, one-year wind data measurements from two metrological masts are used. To validate the obtained results from WAsP, the cross prediction between each mast is performed. The analysis reveals that WAsP model can estimate the wind speed behavior accurately. In addition, results show that this software can be used for predicting the wind regime in flat sites with complex surrounding orography.

Keywords: Complex terrain, Meteorological mast, WAsPmodel, Wind prediction

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1523 White Blood Cells Identification and Counting from Microscopic Blood Image

Authors: Lorenzo Putzu, Cecilia Di Ruberto

Abstract:

The counting and analysis of blood cells allows the evaluation and diagnosis of a vast number of diseases. In particular, the analysis of white blood cells (WBCs) is a topic of great interest to hematologists. Nowadays the morphological analysis of blood cells is performed manually by skilled operators. This involves numerous drawbacks, such as slowness of the analysis and a nonstandard accuracy, dependent on the operator skills. In literature there are only few examples of automated systems in order to analyze the white blood cells, most of which only partial. This paper presents a complete and fully automatic method for white blood cells identification from microscopic images. The proposed method firstly individuates white blood cells from which, subsequently, nucleus and cytoplasm are extracted. The whole work has been developed using MATLAB environment, in particular the Image Processing Toolbox.

Keywords: Automatic detection, Biomedical image processing, Segmentation, White blood cell analysis.

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1522 Prediction Heating Values of Lignocellulosics from Biomass Characteristics

Authors: Kaltima Phichai, Pornchanoke Pragrobpondee, Thaweesak Khumpart, Samorn Hirunpraditkoon

Abstract:

The paper provides biomasses characteristics by proximate analysis (volatile matter, fixed carbon and ash) and ultimate analysis (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen and oxygen) for the prediction of the heating value equations. The heating value estimation of various biomasses can be used as an energy evaluation. Thirteen types of biomass were studied. Proximate analysis was investigated by mass loss method and infrared moisture analyzer. Ultimate analysis was analyzed by CHNO analyzer. The heating values varied from 15 to 22.4MJ kg-1. Correlations of the calculated heating value with proximate and ultimate analyses were undertaken using multiple regression analysis and summarized into three and two equations, respectively. Correlations based on proximate analysis illustrated that deviation of calculated heating values from experimental heating values was higher than the correlations based on ultimate analysis.

Keywords: Heating value equation, Proximate analysis, Ultimate analysis.

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1521 Evaluation of Evolution Strategy, Genetic Algorithm and their Hybrid on Evolving Simulated Car Racing Controllers

Authors: Hidehiko Okada, Jumpei Tokida

Abstract:

Researchers have been applying tional intelligence (AI/CI) methods to computer games. In this research field, further researchesare required to compare AI/CI methods with respect to each game application. In th our experimental result on the comparison of three evolutionary algorithms – evolution strategy, genetic algorithm, and their hybrid applied to evolving controller agents for the CIG 2007 Simulated Car Racing competition. Our experimental result shows that, premature convergence of solutions was observed in the case of ES, and GA outperformed ES in the last half of generations. Besides, a hybrid which uses GA first and ES next evolved the best solution among the whole solutions being generated. This result shows the ability of GA in globally searching promising areas in the early stage and the ability of ES in locally searching the focused area (fine-tuning solutions).

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, autonomous agent, neuroevolutions, simulated car racing.

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1520 Tuberculosis Modelling Using Bio-PEPA Approach

Authors: Dalila Hamami, Baghdad Atmani

Abstract:

Modelling is a widely used tool to facilitate the evaluation of disease management. The interest of epidemiological models lies in their ability to explore hypothetical scenarios and provide decision makers with evidence to anticipate the consequences of disease incursion and impact of intervention strategies.

All models are, by nature, simplification of more complex systems. Models that involve diseases can be classified into different categories depending on how they treat the variability, time, space, and structure of the population. Approaches may be different from simple deterministic mathematical models, to complex stochastic simulations spatially explicit.

Thus, epidemiological modelling is now a necessity for epidemiological investigations, surveillance, testing hypotheses and generating follow-up activities necessary to perform complete and appropriate analysis.

The state of the art presented in the following, allows us to position itself to the most appropriate approaches in the epidemiological study.

Keywords: Bio-PEPA, Cellular automata, Epidemiological modelling, multi agent system, ordinary differential equations, PEPA, Process Algebra, Tuberculosis.

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1519 Psychometric Examination of the QUEST-25: An Online Assessment of Intellectual Curiosity and Scientific Epistemology

Authors: Matthew J. Zagumny

Abstract:

The current study reports an examination of the QUEST-25 (Q-Assessment of Undergraduate Epistemology and Scientific Thinking) online version for assessing the dispositional attitudes toward scientific thinking and intellectual curiosity among undergraduate students. The QUEST-25 consists of scientific thinking (SIQ-25) and intellectual curiosity (ICIQ-25), which were correlated in hypothesized directions with the Religious Commitment Inventory, Curiosity and Exploration Inventory, Belief in Science scale, and measures of academic self-efficacy. Additionally, concurrent validity was established by the resulting significant differences between those identifying the centrality of religious belief in their lives and those who do not self-identify as being guided daily by religious beliefs. This study demonstrates the utility of the QUEST-25 for research, evaluation, and theory development.

Keywords: Guided-inquiry learning, intellectual curiosity, psychometric assessment, scientific thinking.

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1518 A Safety Analysis Method for Multi-Agent Systems

Authors: Ching Louis Liu, Edmund Kazmierczak, Tim Miller

Abstract:

Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.

Keywords: Multi-agent system, safety analysis, safety model.

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1517 FHOJ: A New Java Benchmark Framework

Authors: Vinh Quang La, Dirk Jansen

Abstract:

There are some existing Java benchmarks, application benchmarks as well as micro benchmarks or mixture both of them,such as: Java Grande, Spec98, CaffeMark, HBech, etc. But none of them deal with behaviors of multi tasks operating systems. As a result, the achieved outputs are not satisfied for performance evaluation engineers. Behaviors of multi tasks operating systems are based on a schedule management which is employed in these systems. Different processes can have different priority to share the same resources. The time is measured by estimating from applications started to it is finished does not reflect the real time value which the system need for running those programs. New approach to this problem should be done. Having said that, in this paper we present a new Java benchmark, named FHOJ benchmark, which directly deals with multi tasks behaviors of a system. Our study shows that in some cases, results from FHOJ benchmark are far more reliable in comparison with some existing Java benchmarks.

Keywords: Java Virtual Machine, Java benchmark, FHOJ framework.

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1516 Sensitivity Comparison between Rapid Immuno-Chromatographic Device Test and ELISA in Detection and Sero-Prevalence of HBsAg and Anti-HCV antibodies in Apparently Healthy Blood Donors of Lahore, Pakistan

Authors: Natasha Hussain, Maleeha Aslam, Robina Farooq

Abstract:

Hepatitis B and hepatitis C are among the most significant hepatic infections all around the world that may lead to hepatocellular carcinoma. This study is first time performed at the blood transfussion centre of Omar hospital, Lahore. It aims to determine the sero-prevalence of these diseases by screening the apparently healthy blood donors who might be the carriers of HBV or HCV and pose a high risk in the transmission. It also aims the comparison between the sensitivity of two diagnostic tests; chromatographic immunoassay – one step test device and Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbant Assay (ELISA). Blood serum of 855 apparently healthy blood donors was screened for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and for anti HCV antibodies. SPSS version 12.0 and X2 (Chi-square) test were used for statistical analysis. The seroprevalence of HCV was 8.07% by the device method and by ELISA 9.12% and that of HBV was 5.6% by the device and 6.43% by ELISA. The unavailability of vaccination against HCV makes it more prevalent. Comparing the two diagnostic methods, ELISA proved to be more sensitive.

Keywords: ELISA, Sensitivity comparison of diagnostic tests, seroprevalence of Hepatitis B and C

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