Search results for: data annotation models

Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: Abeer Samy, Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano, Abdelazim Negm

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The Blue Nile Basin is the most important tributary of the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan are almost dependent on water originated from the Blue Nile. This multi-dependency creates conflicts among the three countries Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia making the management of these conflicts as an international issue. Good assessment of the water resources of the Blue Nile is an important to help in managing such conflicts. Hydrological models are good tool for such assessment. This paper presents a critical review of the nature and variability of the climate and hydrology of the Blue Nile Basin as a first step of using hydrological modeling to assess the water resources of the Blue Nile. Many several attempts are done to develop basin-scale hydrological modeling on the Blue Nile. Lumped and semi distributed models used averages of meteorological inputs and watershed characteristics in hydrological simulation, to analyze runoff for flood control and water resource management. Distributed models include the temporal and spatial variability of catchment conditions and meteorological inputs to allow better representation of the hydrological process. The main challenge of all used models was to assess the water resources of the basin is the shortage of the data needed for models calibration and validation. It is recommended to use distributed model for their higher accuracy to cope with the great variability and complexity of the Blue Nile basin and to collect sufficient data to have more sophisticated and accurate hydrological modeling.

Keywords: Blue Nile Basin, Climate Change, Hydrological Modeling, Watershed.

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Authors: Jorge Cardoso

Abstract:

Semantic Web services will enable the semiautomatic and automatic annotation, advertisement, discovery, selection, composition, and execution of inter-organization business logic, making the Internet become a common global platform where organizations and individuals communicate with each other to carry out various commercial activities and to provide value-added services. There is a growing consensus that Web services alone will not be sufficient to develop valuable solutions due the degree of heterogeneity, autonomy, and distribution of the Web. This paper deals with two of the hottest R&D and technology areas currently associated with the Web – Web services and the Semantic Web. It presents the synergies that can be created between Web Services and Semantic Web technologies to provide a new generation of eservices.

Keywords: Semantic Web, Web service, Web process, WWW.

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Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: Change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Karim Heidari

Abstract:

Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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Authors: Mikel Alonso López

Abstract:

In order to begin the process of studying the task of making consumer decisions, the main decision models must be analyzed. The objective of this task is to see if there is a presence of emotions in those models, and analyze how authors that have created them consider their impact in consumer choices. In this paper, the most important models of consumer behavior are analysed. This review is useful to consider an unproblematic background knowledge in the literature. The order that has been established for this study is chronological.

Keywords: Consumer behaviour, emotions, decision making, consumer psychology.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, G. P. Azevedo, R. Rocha

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In this paper we will develop a sequential life test approach applied to a modified low alloy-high strength steel part used in highway overpasses in Brazil.We will consider two possible underlying sampling distributions: the Normal and theInverse Weibull models. The minimum life will be considered equal to zero. We will use the two underlying models to analyze a fatigue life test situation, comparing the results obtained from both.Since a major chemical component of this low alloy-high strength steel part has been changed, there is little information available about the possible values that the parameters of the corresponding Normal and Inverse Weibull underlying sampling distributions could have. To estimate the shape and the scale parameters of these two sampling models we will use a maximum likelihood approach for censored failure data. We will also develop a truncation mechanism for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models. We will provide rules to truncate a sequential life testing situation making one of the two possible decisions at the moment of truncation; that is, accept or reject the null hypothesis H0. An example will develop the proposed truncated sequential life testing approach for the Inverse Weibull and Normal models.

Keywords: Sequential life testing, normal and inverse Weibull models, maximum likelihood approach, truncation mechanism.

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Authors: H. W. Ker

Abstract:

Longitudinal data typically have the characteristics of changes over time, nonlinear growth patterns, between-subjects variability, and the within errors exhibiting heteroscedasticity and dependence. The data exploration is more complicated than that of cross-sectional data. The purpose of this paper is to organize/integrate of various visual-graphical techniques to explore longitudinal data. From the application of the proposed methods, investigators can answer the research questions include characterizing or describing the growth patterns at both group and individual level, identifying the time points where important changes occur and unusual subjects, selecting suitable statistical models, and suggesting possible within-error variance.

Keywords: Data exploration, exploratory analysis, HLMs/LMEs, longitudinal data, visual-graphical methods.

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Authors: María-Dolores Cubiles-de-la-Vega, Rafael Pino-Mejías, Esther-Lydia Silva-Ramírez

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A dissimilarity measure between the empiric characteristic functions of the subsamples associated to the different classes in a multivariate data set is proposed. This measure can be efficiently computed, and it depends on all the cases of each class. It may be used to find groups of similar classes, which could be joined for further analysis, or it could be employed to perform an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis of the set of classes. The final tree can serve to build a family of binary classification models, offering an alternative approach to the multi-class SVM problem. We have tested this dendrogram based SVM approach with the oneagainst- one SVM approach over four publicly available data sets, three of them being microarray data. Both performances have been found equivalent, but the first solution requires a smaller number of binary SVM models.

Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Empiric Characteristic Function, Multi-class SVM, R.

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Authors: Panagiotis Kyratsis, Dr. Ing. Nikolaos Bilalis, Dr. Ing. Aristomenis Antoniadis

Abstract:

Twist drills are geometrical complex tools and thus various researchers have adopted different mathematical and experimental approaches for their simulation. The present paper acknowledges the increasing use of modern CAD systems and using the API (Application Programming Interface) of a CAD system, drilling simulations are carried out. The developed DRILL3D software routine, creates parametrically controlled tool geometries and using different cutting conditions, achieves the generation of solid models for all the relevant data involved (drilling tool, cut workpiece, undeformed chip). The final data derived, consist a platform for further direct simulations regarding the determination of cutting forces, tool wear, drilling optimizations etc.

Keywords: Drilling, CAD based simulation, 3D-modelling.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: S. Daneshmand, A. Ahmadi Nadooshan, C. Aghanajafi

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Traditional wind tunnel models are meticulously machined from metal in a process that can take several months. While very precise, the manufacturing process is too slow to assess a new design's feasibility quickly. Rapid prototyping technology makes this concurrent study of air vehicle concepts via computer simulation and in the wind tunnel possible. This paper described the Affects layer thickness models product with rapid prototyping on Aerodynamic Coefficients for Constructed wind tunnel testing models. Three models were evaluated. The first model was a 0.05mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 0.1μm (Ra) second model was a 0.125mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 0.22μm (Ra) third model was a 0.15mm layer thickness and Horizontal plane 4.6μm (Ra). These models were fabricated from somos 18420 by a stereolithography (SLA). A wing-body-tail configuration was chosen for the actual study. Testing covered the Mach range of Mach 0.3 to Mach 0.9 at an angle-of-attack range of -2° to +12° at zero sideslip. Coefficients of normal force, axial force, pitching moment, and lift over drag are shown at each of these Mach numbers. Results from this study show that layer thickness does have an effect on the aerodynamic characteristics in general; the data differ between the three models by fewer than 5%. The layer thickness does have more effect on the aerodynamic characteristics when Mach number is decreased and had most effect on the aerodynamic characteristics of axial force and its derivative coefficients.

Keywords: Aerodynamic characteristics, stereolithography, layer thickness, Rapid prototyping, surface finish.

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Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

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The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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Authors: M. Pepe, S. Ackermann, L. Fregonese, C. Achille

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3D models obtained with advanced survey techniques such as close-range photogrammetry and laser scanner are nowadays particularly appreciated in Cultural Heritage and Archaeology fields. In order to produce high quality models representing archaeological evidences and anthropological artifacts, the appearance of the model (i.e. color) beyond the geometric accuracy, is not a negligible aspect. The integration of the close-range photogrammetry survey techniques with the laser scanner is still a topic of study and research. By combining point cloud data sets of the same object generated with both technologies, or with the same technology but registered in different moment and/or natural light condition, could construct a final point cloud with accentuated color dissimilarities. In this paper, a methodology to uniform the different data sets, to improve the chromatic quality and to highlight further details by balancing the point color will be presented.

Keywords: Color models, cultural heritage, laser scanner, photogrammetry, point cloud color.

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Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

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The paper is focused on the operational model for transport the single wagon consignments on railway network by using two different models of train formation. The paper gives an overview of possibilities of improving the quality of transport services. Paper deals with two models used in problematic of train formatting - time continuously and time discrete. By applying these models in practice, the transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and expect increasing of transport performance. The models are also applicable into others transport networks. The models supplement a theoretical problem of train formation by new ways of looking to affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Train formation, wagon flows, marshalling yard, railway technology.

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Authors: Yang Bao, LuJing Zhang

Abstract:

Typical Intelligent Decision Support System is 4-based, its design composes of Data Warehouse, Online Analytical Processing, Data Mining and Decision Supporting based on models, which is called Decision Support System Based on Data Warehouse (DSSBDW). This way takes ETL,OLAP and DM as its implementing means, and integrates traditional model-driving DSS and data-driving DSS into a whole. For this kind of problem, this paper analyzes the DSSBDW architecture and DW model, and discusses the following key issues: ETL designing and Realization; metadata managing technology using XML; SQL implementing, optimizing performance, data mapping in OLAP; lastly, it illustrates the designing principle and method of DW in DSSBDW.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Data Warehouse, Data Mining.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Hyuck Ki Hong, Young Chang Jo, Yeon Shik Choi, Beom Joon Kim, Hyo Derk Park

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To measure the thickness of the subcutaneous adipose tissue layer, a non-invasive optical measurement system (λ=1300 nm) is introduced. Animal and human subjects are used for the experiments. The results of human subjects are compared with the data of ultrasound device measurements, and a high correlation (r=0.94 for n=11) is observed. There are two modes in the corresponding signals measured by the optical system, which can be explained by two-layered and three-layered tissue models. If the target tissue is thinner than the critical thickness, detected data using diffuse reflectance method follow the three-layered tissue model, so the data increase as the thickness increases. On the other hand, if the target tissue is thicker than the critical thickness, the data follow the two-layered tissue model, so they decrease as the thickness increases.

Keywords: Subcutaneous adipose tissue layer, non-invasive measurement system, two-layered and three-layered tissue models.

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Authors: G.A.C.P. Ganegoda, D.M.A. Samaranayake, L.S. Bandara, K.A.D.N.K. Wimalawarne

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With the popularity of the multi-core and many-core architectures there is a great requirement for software frameworks which can support parallel programming methodologies. In this paper we introduce an Eclipse toolkit, JConqurr which is easy to use and provides robust support for flexible parallel progrmaming. JConqurr is a multi-core and many-core programming toolkit for Java which is capable of providing support for common parallel programming patterns which include task, data, divide and conquer and pipeline parallelism. The toolkit uses an annotation and a directive mechanism to convert the sequential code into parallel code. In addition to that we have proposed a novel mechanism to achieve the parallelism using graphical processing units (GPU). Experiments with common parallelizable algorithms have shown that our toolkit can be easily and efficiently used to convert sequential code to parallel code and significant performance gains can be achieved.

Keywords: Multi-core, parallel programming patterns, GPU, Java, Eclipse plugin, toolkit,

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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Authors: S. Sowmyayani

Abstract:

The advancement of computer-aided design helps the medical force and security force. Some applications include biometric recognition, elderly fall detection, face recognition, cancer recognition, tumor recognition, etc. This paper deals with different machine learning algorithms that are more generically used for any health care system. The most focused problems are classification and regression. With the rise of big data, machine learning has become particularly important for solving problems. Machine learning uses two types of techniques: supervised learning and unsupervised learning. The former trains a model on known input and output data and predicts future outputs. Classification and regression are supervised learning techniques. Unsupervised learning finds hidden patterns in input data. Clustering is one such unsupervised learning technique. The above-mentioned models are discussed briefly in this paper.

Keywords: Supervised learning, unsupervised learning, regression, neural network.

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Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

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In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

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Authors: Geeta Sikka, Arvinder Kaur Takkar, Moin Uddin

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Missing data is a persistent problem in almost all areas of empirical research. The missing data must be treated very carefully, as data plays a fundamental role in every analysis. Improper treatment can distort the analysis or generate biased results. In this paper, we compare and contrast various imputation techniques on missing data sets and make an empirical evaluation of these methods so as to construct quality software models. Our empirical study is based on NASA-s two public dataset. KC4 and KC1. The actual data sets of 125 cases and 2107 cases respectively, without any missing values were considered. The data set is used to create Missing at Random (MAR) data Listwise Deletion(LD), Mean Substitution(MS), Interpolation, Regression with an error term and Expectation-Maximization (EM) approaches were used to compare the effects of the various techniques.

Keywords: Missing data, Imputation, Missing Data Techniques.

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

Abstract:

It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, type-I error, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood.

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Authors: M. Awawdeh, A. Fedi

Abstract:

The application of data mining to environmental monitoring has become crucial for a number of tasks related to emergency management. Over recent years, many tools have been developed for decision support system (DSS) for emergency management. In this article a graphical user interface (GUI) for environmental monitoring system is presented. This interface allows accomplishing (i) data collection and observation and (ii) extraction for data mining. This tool may be the basis for future development along the line of the open source software paradigm.

Keywords: Data Mining, Environmental data, Mathematical Models, Matlab Graphical User Interface.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

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Authors: P. Beraldi, M. E. Bruni

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Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the most widely used technique for evaluating the relative efficiency of a set of homogeneous decision making units. Traditionally, it assumes that input and output variables are known in advance, ignoring the critical issue of data uncertainty. In this paper, we deal with the problem of efficiency evaluation under uncertain conditions by adopting the general framework of the stochastic programming. We assume that output parameters are represented by discretely distributed random variables and we propose two different models defined according to a neutral and risk-averse perspective. The models have been validated by considering a real case study concerning the evaluation of the technical efficiency of a sample of individual firms operating in the Italian leather manufacturing industry. Our findings show the validity of the proposed approach as ex-ante evaluation technique by providing the decision maker with useful insights depending on his risk aversion degree.

Keywords: DEA, Stochastic Programming, Ex-ante evaluation technique, Conditional Value at Risk.

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