Search results for: Real Time Management

Authors: Jaimin Patel

Abstract:

Cloud computing is one of the most sharp and important movement in various computing technologies. It provides flexibility to users, cost effectiveness, location independence, easy maintenance, enables multitenancy, drastic performance improvements, and increased productivity. On the other hand, there are also major issues like security. Being a common server, security for a cloud is a major issue; it is important to provide security to protect user’s private data, and it is especially important in e-commerce and social networks. In this paper, encryption algorithms such as Advanced Encryption Standard algorithms, their vulnerabilities, risk of attacks, optimal time and complexity management and comparison with other algorithms based on software implementation is proposed. Encryption techniques to improve the performance of AES algorithms and to reduce risk management are given. Secure Hash Algorithms, their vulnerabilities, software implementations, risk of attacks and comparison with other hashing algorithms as well as the advantages and disadvantages between hashing techniques and encryption are given.

Keywords: Cloud computing, encryption algorithm, secure hashing algorithm, brute force attack, birthday attack, plaintext attack, man-in-the-middle attack.

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Authors: S. S. Rwanga, J. M. Ndambuki, Y. Woyessa

Abstract:

Development of a groundwater management model is an important step in the exploitation and management of any groundwater aquifer as it assists in the long-term sustainable planning of the resource. The current study was conducted in Central Limpopo province of South Africa with the overall objective of determining how much water can be withdrawn from the aquifer without producing nonreversible impacts on the groundwater quantity, hence developing a model which can sustainably protect the aquifer. The development was done through the computation of Groundwater Sustainability Index (GSI). Values of GSI close to unity and above indicated overexploitation. In this study, an index of 0.8 was considered as overexploitation. The results indicated that there is potential for higher abstraction rates compared to the current abstraction rates. GSI approach can be used in the management of groundwater aquifer to sustainably develop the resource and also provides water managers and policy makers with fundamental information on where future water developments can be carried out.

Keywords: Development, groundwater, groundwater sustainability index, model.

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Authors: M. Ghazy, T. Dockhorn, N. Dichtl

Abstract:

The present disposal routes of sewage sludge represent a critical environmental issue in Egypt. Recently, there has been an increasing concern about sewage sludge management due to the environmental risks, which resulted from the fast expansion of wastewater treatment plants without equal attention in dealing with the produced sludge. This paper discusses the current situation of sewage sludge management in Egypt presenting a brief overview of the existing wastewater treatment plants, sludge production and characteristics as well as options of beneficial use and potential demand of sewage sludge under Egyptian conditions. The characteristics of sewage sludge are discussed considering the results of own sampling and analysis as well as previous studies. Furthermore, alternative treatment scenarios for sewage sludge, which have been recently developed in Egypt, are discussed and perspectives for a sustainable agricultural use are outlined.

Keywords: Beneficial use, Egypt, Monetary value, Stabilization processes, Sewage sludge, Sludge management

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Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang, Jiaojiao Ren, Wei Kang

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of passivity analysis for stochastic neural networks with leakage, discrete and distributed delays. By using delay partitioning technique, free weighting matrix method and stochastic analysis technique, several sufficient conditions for the passivity of the addressed neural networks are established in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), in which both the time-delay and its time derivative can be fully considered. A numerical example is given to show the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Passivity, Stochastic neural networks, Multiple time delays, Linear matrix inequalities (LMIs).

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Authors: C. Bunsanit

Abstract:

This paper presents the refinement method for two beams formation of wideband smart antenna. The refinement method for weighting coefficients is based on Fully Spatial Signal Processing by taking Inverse Discrete Fourier Transform (IDFT), and its simulation results are presented using MATLAB. The radiation pattern is created by multiplying the incoming signal with real weights and then summing them together. These real weighting coefficients are computed by IDFT method; however, the range of weight values is relatively wide. Therefore, for reducing this range, the refinement method is used. The radiation pattern concerns with five input parameters to control. These parameters are maximum weighting coefficient, wideband signal, direction of mainbeam, beamwidth, and maximum of minor lobe level. Comparison of the obtained simulation results between using refinement method and taking only IDFT shows that the refinement method works well for wideband two beams formation.

Keywords: Fully spatial signal processing, beam forming, refinement method, smart antenna, weighting coefficient, wideband.

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Authors: N. Arulanand, K. Premalatha

Abstract:

Bloom filter is a probabilistic and memory efficient data structure designed to answer rapidly whether an element is present in a set. It tells that the element is definitely not in the set but its presence is with certain probability. The trade-off to use Bloom filter is a certain configurable risk of false positives. The odds of a false positive can be made very low if the number of hash function is sufficiently large. For spam detection, weight is attached to each set of elements. The spam weight for a word is a measure used to rate the e-mail. Each word is assigned to a Bloom filter based on its weight. The proposed work introduces an enhanced concept in Bloom filter called Bin Bloom Filter (BBF). The performance of BBF over conventional Bloom filter is evaluated under various optimization techniques. Real time data set and synthetic data sets are used for experimental analysis and the results are demonstrated for bin sizes 4, 5, 6 and 7. Finally analyzing the results, it is found that the BBF which uses heuristic techniques performs better than the traditional Bloom filter in spam detection.

Keywords: Cuckoo search algorithm, levy’s flight, metaheuristic, optimal weight.

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Authors: M. Mikušová, P. Horváthová

Abstract:

The paper structures research approaches to the crisis and its management. It focuses on approaches – psychological, sociological, economic, ethical and technological. Furthermore, it describes the basic features of models chosen according to those approaches. By their comparison it shows how the crisis influences organizations and individuals, and their mutual interaction.

Keywords: approaches, crisis, model.

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Authors: Rezvan Najafi, Korosh Heydari, Massoud Saidijam

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5-FU is a chemotherapeutic agent that has been used in colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment. However, it is usually associated with the acquired resistance, which decreases the therapeutic effects of 5-FU. miR-200c is involved in chemotherapeutic drug resistance, but its mechanism is not fully understood. In this study, the effect of inhibition of miR-200c in sensitivity of HCT-116 CRC cells to 5-FU was evaluated. HCT-116 cells were transfected with LNA-anti- miR-200c for 48 h. mRNA expression of miR-200c was evaluated using quantitative real- time PCR. The protein expression of phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) and E-cadherin were analyzed by western blotting. Annexin V and propidium iodide staining assay were applied for apoptosis detection. The caspase-3 activation was evaluated by an enzymatic assay. The results showed LNA-anti-miR-200c inhibited the expression of PTEN and E-cadherin protein, apoptosis and activation of caspase 3 compared with control cells. In conclusion, these results suggest that miR-200c as a prognostic marker can overcome to 5-FU chemoresistance in CRC.

Keywords: Colorectal cancer, miR-200c, 5-FU resistance, E-cadherin, PTEN.

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Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

Abstract:

This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

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Authors: Simone Galati, Adriano Troia

Abstract:

Ultrasound (US) is widely used in medical field for a variety diagnostic techniques but, in recent years, it has also been creating great interest for therapeutic aims. Regarding drug delivery, the use of US as an activation source provides better spatial delivery confinement and limits the undesired side effects. However, at present there is no complete characterization at a fundamental level of the different signals produced by sono-activated nanocarriers. Therefore, the aim of this study is to obtain a metrological characterization of the cavitation phenomena induced by US through three parallel investigation approaches. US was focused into a channel of a customized phantom in which a solution with oxygen-loaded nanodroplets (OLNDs) was led to flow and the cavitation activity was monitored. Both quantitative and qualitative real-time analysis were performed giving information about the dynamics of bubble formation, oscillation and final implosion with respect to the working acoustic pressure and the type of nanodroplets, compared with pure water. From this analysis a possible interpretation of the observed results is proposed.

Keywords: Cavitation, Drug Delivery, Nanodroplets, Ultrasound.

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Authors: M. Yousefi, N. Nasirzadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, behavior of an oscillator under injection of another signal has been investigated. Also, variation of output signal amplitude versus injected signal phase variation, the effect of varying the amplitude of injected signal and quality factor of the oscillator has been investigated. The results show that the locking time depends on phase and the best locking time happens at 180-degrees phase. Also, the effect of injected lock has been discussed. Simulations show that the locking time decreases with signal injection to bulk. Locking time has been investigated versus various phase differences. The effect of phase and amplitude changes on locking time of a typical LC oscillator in 180 nm technology has been investigated.

Keywords: Injection-lock oscillator, oscillator, analysis, phase modulation.

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Authors: Bang Young Kim, Sang Hoon Park, Chul Gyu Song

Abstract:

A conventional optical coherence tomography (OCT) system has limited imaging depth, which is 1-2 mm, and suffers unwanted noise such as speckle noise. The motorized-stage-based OCT system, using a common-path Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography (CP-FD-OCT) configuration, provides enhanced imaging depth and less noise so that we can overcome these limitations. Using this OCT systems, OCT images were obtained from an onion, and their subsurface structure was observed. As a result, the images obtained using the developed motorized-stage-based system showed enhanced imaging depth than the conventional system, since it is real-time accurate depth tracking. Consequently, the developed CP-FD-OCT systems and algorithms have good potential for the further development of endoscopic OCT for microsurgery.

Keywords: Common-path OCT, FD-OCT, OCT, Tracking algorithm.

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Authors: A. M. Tahsini

Abstract:

Computational study of two dimensional supersonic reacting hydrogen-air flows is performed to investigate the nitrogen effects on ignition delay time for premixed and diffusion flames. Chemical reaction is treated using detail kinetics and the advection upstream splitting method is used to calculate the numerical inviscid fluxes. The results show that just in stoichiometric condition for both premixed and diffusion flames, there is monotone dependency of the ignition delay time to the nitrogen addition. In other situations, the optimal condition from ignition viewpoint should be found using numerical investigations.

Keywords: Diffusion flame, Ignition delay time, Mixing layer, Numerical simulation, Premixed flame, Supersonic flow.

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Authors: Marjan Mansourvar, Norizan Mohd Yasin

Abstract:

The development of Web has affected different aspects of our lives, such as communication, sharing knowledge, searching for jobs, social activities, etc. The web portal as a gateway in the World Wide Web is a starting point for people who are connecting to the Internet. The web portal as the type of knowledge management system provides a rich space to share and search information as well as communication services like free email or content provision for the users. This research aims to discover the university needs to the web portal as a necessary tool for students in the universities to help them in getting the required information. A survey was conducted to gather students' requirements which can be incorporated in to portal to be developed.

Keywords: Knowledge, Knowledge management system, Knowledge sharing, web portal.

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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Authors: Nurbanu Guzey, S. Jagannathan

Abstract:

Locating Radio Controlled (RC) devices using their unintended emissions has a great interest considering security concerns. Weak nature of these emissions requires near field localization approach since it is hard to detect these signals in far field region of array. Instead of only angle estimation, near field localization also requires range estimation of the source which makes this method more complicated than far field models. Challenges of locating such devices in a near field region and real time environment are analyzed in this paper. An ESPRIT like near field localization scheme is utilized for both angle and range estimation. 1-D search with symmetric subarrays is provided. Two 7 element uniform linear antenna arrays (ULA) are employed for locating RC source. Experiment results of location estimation for one unintended emitting walkie-talkie for different positions are given.

Keywords: Localization, angle of arrival (AoA), range estimation, array signal processing, ESPRIT, uniform linear array (ULA).

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Authors: Chiang-Ho Cheng, An-Shik Yang, Chih-Jer Lin, Chun-Ying Lee

Abstract:

This paper aims to present the design, fabrication and test of a novel piezoelectric actuated, check-valves embedded micropump having the advantages of miniature size, light weight and low power consumption. This device is designed to pump gases and liquids with the capability of performing the self-priming and bubble-tolerant work mode by maximizing the stroke volume of the membrane as well as the compression ratio via minimization of the dead volume of the micropump chamber and channel. By experiment apparatus setup, we can get the real-time values of the flow rate of micropump, the displacement of the piezoelectric actuator and the deformation of the check valve, simultaneously. The micropump with check valve 0.4 mm in thickness obtained higher output performance under the sinusoidal waveform of 120 V_pp. The micropump achieved the maximum pumping rates of 42.2 ml/min and back pressure of 14.0 kPa at the corresponding frequency of 28 and 20 Hz. The presented micropump is able to pump gases with a pumping rate of 196 ml/min at operating frequencies of 280 Hz under the sinusoidal waveform of 120 V_pp.

Keywords: Actuator, Check-valve, Micropump, Piezoelectric.

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Authors: Alpha Agape Gopalai, S. M. N. Arosha Senanayake

Abstract:

This paper explores the opportunity of using tri-axial wireless accelerometers for supervised monitoring of sports movements. A motion analysis system for the upper extremities of lawn bowlers in particular is developed. Accelerometers are placed on parts of human body such as the chest to represent the shoulder movements, the back to capture the trunk motion, back of the hand, the wrist and one above the elbow, to capture arm movements. These sensors placement are carefully designed in order to avoid restricting bowler-s movements. Data is acquired from these sensors in soft-real time using virtual instrumentation; the acquired data is then conditioned and converted into required parameters for motion regeneration. A user interface was also created to facilitate in the acquisition of data, and broadcasting of commands to the wireless accelerometers. All motion regeneration in this paper deals with the motion of the human body segment in the X and Y direction, looking into the motion of the anterior/ posterior and lateral directions respectively.

Keywords: Motion Regeneration, Virtual Instrumentation, Wireless Accelerometers.

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Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

Abstract:

Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: Process mining, multidimensional process mining, multi-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery.

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Authors: Mahmoud Elmezain, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Robert Niese, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

Real-time hand tracking is a challenging task in many computer vision applications such as gesture recognition. This paper proposes a robust method for hand tracking in a complex environment using Mean-shift analysis and Kalman filter in conjunction with 3D depth map. The depth information solve the overlapping problem between hands and face, which is obtained by passive stereo measuring based on cross correlation and the known calibration data of the cameras. Mean-shift analysis uses the gradient of Bhattacharyya coefficient as a similarity function to derive the candidate of the hand that is most similar to a given hand target model. And then, Kalman filter is used to estimate the position of the hand target. The results of hand tracking, tested on various video sequences, are robust to changes in shape as well as partial occlusion.

Keywords: Computer Vision and Image Analysis, Object Tracking, Gesture Recognition.

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Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

Abstract:

An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: Analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper aims to select the best military attack helicopter to purchase by the Armed Forces and provide greater reconnaissance and offensive combat capability in military operations. For this purpose, a multiple criteria decision analysis method integrated with the variance weight procedure was applied to the military attack helicopter selection problem. A real military aviation case problem is conducted to support the Armed Forces decision-making process and contributes to the better performance of the Armed Forces. Application of the methodology resulted in ranking lists for ordering and prioritizing attack helicopters, providing transparency and simplicity to the decision-making process. Nine military attack helicopter models were analyzed in the light of strategic, tactical, and operational criteria, considering attack helicopters. The selected military attack helicopter would be used for fire support and reconnaissance activities required by the Armed Forces operation. This study makes a valuable contribution to the problem of military attack helicopter selection, as it represents a state-of-the-art application of the MCDMA method to contribute to the solution of a real problem of the Armed Forces. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to solve real problems of a wide variety, especially strategic, tactical and operational, and is, therefore, a very useful method for decision making.

Keywords: aircraft selection, military attack helicopter selection, attack helicopter fleet planning, MCDMA, multiple criteria analysis, multiple criteria decision making analysis, distance function measure

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Authors: Rami N. Khushaba, Ahmed Al-Ani, Adel Al-Jumaily

Abstract:

One of the approaches enabling people with amputated limbs to establish some sort of interface with the real world includes the utilization of the myoelectric signal (MES) from the remaining muscles of those limbs. The MES can be used as a control input to a multifunction prosthetic device. In this control scheme, known as the myoelectric control, a pattern recognition approach is usually utilized to discriminate between the MES signals that belong to different classes of the forearm movements. Since the MES is recorded using multiple channels, the feature vector size can become very large. In order to reduce the computational cost and enhance the generalization capability of the classifier, a dimensionality reduction method is needed to identify an informative yet moderate size feature set. This paper proposes a new fuzzy version of the well known Fisher-s Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) feature projection technique. Furthermore, based on the fact that certain muscles might contribute more to the discrimination process, a novel feature weighting scheme is also presented by employing Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for estimating the weight of each feature. The new method, called PSOFLDA, is tested on real MES datasets and compared with other techniques to prove its superiority.

Keywords: Discriminant Analysis, Pattern Recognition, SignalProcessing.

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Authors: Geoff D. Skinner

Abstract:

Australia, while being a large and eager consumer of innovative and cutting edge Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), continues to struggle to remain a leader in Technological Innovation. This paper has two main contributions to address certain aspects of this complex issue. The first being the current findings of an ongoing research project on Information and Innovation Management in the Australian Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector. The major issues being considered by the project include: investigation of the possible inherent entrepreneurial nature of ICT; how to foster ICT innovation; and examination of the inherent difficulties currently found within the ICT industry of Australia in regards to supporting the development of innovative and creative ideas. The second major contribution is details of the I.-C.A.N. (Innovation by Collaborative Anonymous Networking) software application information management tool created and evolving in our research group. I-CAN, besides having a positive reinforcement acronym, is aimed at facilitating productive collaborative innovation in an Australian workplace. Such a work environment is frequently subjected to cultural influences such as the 'tall poppy syndrome' and 'negative' or 'unconstructive' peer-pressure. There influences are frequently seen as inhibitors to employee participation, entrepreneurship and innovation.

Keywords: Innovation Management, Knowledge Management, Technology Incubation.

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Authors: Pushkar Tripathi, Abhishek Sharma, G. N. Pillai, Indira Gupta

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This paper presents a new approach for the protection of Thyristor-Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) line using Support Vector Machine (SVM). One SVM is trained for fault classification and another for section identification. This method use three phase current measurement that results in better speed and accuracy than other SVM based methods which used single phase current measurement. This makes it suitable for real-time protection. The method was tested on 10,000 data instances with a very wide variation in system conditions such as compensation level, source impedance, location of fault, fault inception angle, load angle at source bus and fault resistance. The proposed method requires only local current measurement.

Keywords: Fault Classification, Section Identification, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Thyristor-Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)

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Authors: In-Chul Jung, Young S. Kwon

Abstract:

Knowing about the customer behavior in a grocery has been a long-standing issue in the retailing industry. The advent of RFID has made it easier to collect moving data for an individual shopper's behavior. Most of the previous studies used the traditional statistical clustering technique to find the major characteristics of customer behavior, especially shopping path. However, in using the clustering technique, due to various spatial constraints in the store, standard clustering methods are not feasible because moving data such as the shopping path should be adjusted in advance of the analysis, which is time-consuming and causes data distortion. To alleviate this problem, we propose a new approach to spatial pattern clustering based on the longest common subsequence. Experimental results using real data obtained from a grocery confirm the good performance of the proposed method in finding the hot spot, dead spot and major path patterns of customer movements.

Keywords: customer path, shopping behavior, exploratoryanalysis, LCS, RFID

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Authors: Hemani Kaushal, V.K.Jain, Subrat Kar

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The performance of ground to deep space optical communication systems is degraded by distortion of the beam as it propagates through the turbulent atmosphere. Turbulence causes fluctuations in the intensity of the received signal which ultimately affects the acquisition time required to acquire and locate the spaceborne target using narrow laser beam. In this paper, performance of free-space optical (FSO) communication system in atmospheric turbulence has been analyzed in terms of acquisition time for coherent and non-coherent modulation schemes. Numerical results presented in graphical and tabular forms show that the acquisition time increases with the increase in turbulence level. This is true for both schemes. The BPSK has lowest acquisition time among all schemes. In non-coherent schemes, M-PPM performs better than the other schemes. With the increase in M, acquisition time becomes lower, but at the cost of increase in system complexity.

Keywords: Atmospheric Turbulence, Acquisition Time, BinaryPhase Shift Keying (BPSK), Free-Space Optical (FSO)Communication System, M-ary Pulse Position Modulation (M-PPM), Coherent/Non-coherent Modulation Schemes.

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Authors: Kee-Leong Tan, Karyn Wei-Ju Khoo, Hui-Na Chua

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Service discovery is a very important component of Service Oriented Architectures (SOA). This paper presents two alternative approaches to customise the query results of private service registry such as Universal Description, Discovery and Integration (UDDI). The customisation is performed based on some pre-defined and/or real-time changing parameters. This work identifies the requirements, designs and additional mechanisms that must be applied to UDDI in order to support this customisation capability. We also detail the implements of the approaches and examine its performance and scalability. Based on our experimental results, we conclude that both approaches can be used to customise registry query results, but by storing personalization parameters in external resource will yield better performance and but less scalable when size of query results increases. We believe these approaches when combined with semantics enabled service registry will enhance the service discovery methods within a private UDDI registry environment.

Keywords: Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), Web service, Service discovery, registry, UDDI

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.

Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.

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