Search results for: Generalized Linear Model (GLM)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8754

Search results for: Generalized Linear Model (GLM)

7224 Analysis of Vocal Fold Vibrations from High-Speed Digital Images Based On Dynamic Time Warping

Authors: A. I. A. Rahman, Sh-Hussain Salleh, K. Ahmad, K. Anuar

Abstract:

Analysis of vocal fold vibration is essential for understanding the mechanism of voice production and for improving clinical assessment of voice disorders. This paper presents a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) based approach to analyze and objectively classify vocal fold vibration patterns. The proposed technique was designed and implemented on a Glottal Area Waveform (GAW) extracted from high-speed laryngeal images by delineating the glottal edges for each image frame. Feature extraction from the GAW was performed using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC). Several types of voice reference templates from simulations of clear, breathy, fry, pressed and hyperfunctional voice productions were used. The patterns of the reference templates were first verified using the analytical signal generated through Hilbert transformation of the GAW. Samples from normal speakers’ voice recordings were then used to evaluate and test the effectiveness of this approach. The classification of the voice patterns using the technique of LPC and DTW gave the accuracy of 81%.

Keywords: Dynamic Time Warping, Glottal Area Waveform, Linear Predictive Coding, High-Speed Laryngeal Images, Hilbert Transform.

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7223 Development of a Wind Resource Assessment Framework Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, Python Scripting and Geographic Information Systems

Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

Abstract:

Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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7222 Classification Based on Deep Neural Cellular Automata Model

Authors: Yasser F. Hassan

Abstract:

Deep learning structure is a branch of machine learning science and greet achievement in research and applications. Cellular neural networks are regarded as array of nonlinear analog processors called cells connected in a way allowing parallel computations. The paper discusses how to use deep learning structure for representing neural cellular automata model. The proposed learning technique in cellular automata model will be examined from structure of deep learning. A deep automata neural cellular system modifies each neuron based on the behavior of the individual and its decision as a result of multi-level deep structure learning. The paper will present the architecture of the model and the results of simulation of approach are given. Results from the implementation enrich deep neural cellular automata system and shed a light on concept formulation of the model and the learning in it.

Keywords: Cellular automata, neural cellular automata, deep learning, classification.

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7221 Video-On-Demand QoE Evaluation across Different Age-Groups and Its Significance for Network Capacity

Authors: Mujtaba Roshan, John A. Schormans

Abstract:

Quality of Experience (QoE) drives churn in the broadband networks industry, and good QoE plays a large part in the retention of customers. QoE is known to be affected by the Quality of Service (QoS) factors packet loss probability (PLP), delay and delay jitter caused by the network. Earlier results have shown that the relationship between these QoS factors and QoE is non-linear, and may vary from application to application. We use the network emulator Netem as the basis for experimentation, and evaluate how QoE varies as we change the emulated QoS metrics. Focusing on Video-on-Demand, we discovered that the reported QoE may differ widely for users of different age groups, and that the most demanding age group (the youngest) can require an order of magnitude lower PLP to achieve the same QoE than is required by the most widely studied age group of users. We then used a bottleneck TCP model to evaluate the capacity cost of achieving an order of magnitude decrease in PLP, and found it be (almost always) a 3-fold increase in link capacity that was required.

Keywords: Quality of experience, quality of service, packet loss probability, network capacity.

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7220 A Model Predictive Control and Time Series Forecasting Framework for Supply Chain Management

Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.

Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.

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7219 Dynamic Model and Control of a New Quadrotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicle with Tilt-Wing Mechanism

Authors: Kaan T. Oner, Ertugrul Cetinsoy, Mustafa Unel, Mahmut F. Aksit, Ilyas Kandemir, Kayhan Gulez

Abstract:

In this work a dynamic model of a new quadrotor aerial vehicle that is equipped with a tilt-wing mechanism is presented. The vehicle has the capabilities of vertical take-off/landing (VTOL) like a helicopter and flying horizontal like an airplane. Dynamic model of the vehicle is derived both for vertical and horizontal flight modes using Newton-Euler formulation. An LQR controller for the vertical flight mode has also been developed and its performance has been tested with several simulations.

Keywords: Control, Dynamic model, LQR, Quadrotor, Tilt-wing, VTOL.

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7218 Numerical Prediction of NOX in the Exhaust of a Compression Ignition Engine

Authors: A. A. Pawar, R. R. Kulkarni

Abstract:

For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX models.

Keywords: Biodiesel fueled engine, equivalence ratio, Compression ignition engine, exhausts gas temperature, NOX formation.

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7217 Single Zone Model for HCCI Engine Fueled with n-Heptane

Authors: Thanapiyawanit Bancha, Lu Jau-Huai

Abstract:

In this study, we developed a model to predict the temperature and the pressure variation in an internal combustion engine operated in HCCI (Homogeneous charge compression ignition) mode. HCCI operation begins from aspirating of homogeneous charge mixture through intake valve like SI (Spark ignition) engine and the premixed charge is compressed until temperature and pressure of mixture reach autoignition point like diesel engine. Combustion phase was described by double-Wiebe function. The single zone model coupled with an double-Wiebe function were performed to simulated pressure and temperature between the period of IVC (Inlet valve close) and EVO (Exhaust valve open). Mixture gas properties were implemented using STANJAN and transfer the results to main model. The model has considered the engine geometry and enables varying in fuelling, equivalence ratio, manifold temperature and pressure. The results were compared with the experiment and showed good correlation with respect to combustion phasing, pressure rise, peak pressure and temperature. This model could be adapted and use to control start of combustion for HCCI engine.

Keywords: Double-Wiebe function, HCCI, Ignition enhancer, Single zone model.

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7216 A Proposed Trust Model for the Semantic Web

Authors: Hoda Waguih

Abstract:

A serious problem on the WWW is finding reliable information. Not everything found on the Web is true and the Semantic Web does not change that in any way. The problem will be even more crucial for the Semantic Web, where agents will be integrating and using information from multiple sources. Thus, if an incorrect premise is used due to a single faulty source, then any conclusions drawn may be in error. Thus, statements published on the Semantic Web have to be seen as claims rather than as facts, and there should be a way to decide which among many possibly inconsistent sources is most reliable. In this work, we propose a trust model for the Semantic Web. The proposed model is inspired by the use trust in human society. Trust is a type of social knowledge and encodes evaluations about which agents can be taken as reliable sources of information or services. Our proposed model allows agents to decide which among different sources of information to trust and thus act rationally on the semantic web.

Keywords: Semantic Web, Trust, Web of Trust, WWW.

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7215 The Process of Crisis: Model of Its Development in the Organization

Authors: M. Mikušová

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to present a clear and comprehensive picture of the process of a crisis in the organization which will help to better understand its possible developments. For a description of the sequence of individual steps and an indication of their causation and possible variants of the developments, a detailed flow diagram with verbal comment is applied. For simplicity, the process of the crisis is observed in four basic phases called: symptoms of the crisis, diagnosis, action and prevention. The model highlights the complexity of the phenomenon of the crisis and that the various phases of the crisis are interweaving.

Keywords: Crisis, management, model, organization.

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7214 Analysis and Application of in Indirect MinimumJerk Method for Higher order Differential Equation in Dynamics Optimization Systems

Authors: V. Tawiwat, T. Amornthep, P. Pnop

Abstract:

Both the minimum energy consumption and smoothness, which is quantified as a function of jerk, are generally needed in many dynamic systems such as the automobile and the pick-and-place robot manipulator that handles fragile equipments. Nevertheless, many researchers come up with either solely concerning on the minimum energy consumption or minimum jerk trajectory. This research paper considers the indirect minimum Jerk method for higher order differential equation in dynamics optimization proposes a simple yet very interesting indirect jerks approaches in designing the time-dependent system yielding an alternative optimal solution. Extremal solutions for the cost functions of indirect jerks are found using the dynamic optimization methods together with the numerical approximation. This case considers the linear equation of a simple system, for instance, mass, spring and damping. The simple system uses two mass connected together by springs. The boundary initial is defined the fix end time and end point. The higher differential order is solved by Galerkin-s methods weight residual. As the result, the 6th higher differential order shows the faster solving time.

Keywords: Optimization, Dynamic, Linear Systems, Jerks.

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7213 A Mixed Integer Programming for Port Anzali Development Plan

Authors: Mahdieh Allahviranloo

Abstract:

This paper introduces a mixed integer programming model to find the optimum development plan for port Anzali. The model minimizes total system costs taking into account both port infrastructure costs and shipping costs. Due to the multipurpose function of the port, the model consists of 1020 decision variables and 2490 constraints. Results of the model determine the optimum number of berths that should be constructed in each period and for each type of cargo. In addition to, the results of sensitivity analysis on port operation quantity provide useful information for managers to choose the best scenario for port planning with the lowest investment risks. Despite all limitations-due to data availability-the model offers a straightforward decision tools to port planners aspiring to achieve optimum port planning steps.

Keywords: MILP, Multipurpose Terminal, Port Operation Optimization, Port Anzali.

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7212 A Numerical Method for Diffusion and Cahn-Hilliard Equations on Evolving Spherical Surfaces

Authors: Jyh-Yang Wu, Sheng-Gwo Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simple effective numerical geometric method to estimate the divergence of a vector field over a curved surface. The conservation law is an important principle in physics and mathematics. However, many well-known numerical methods for solving diffusion equations do not obey conservation laws. Our presented method in this paper combines the divergence theorem with a generalized finite difference method and obeys the conservation law on discrete closed surfaces. We use the similar method to solve the Cahn-Hilliard equations on evolving spherical surfaces and observe stability results in our numerical simulations.

Keywords: Conservation laws, diffusion equations, Cahn-Hilliard Equations, evolving surfaces.

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7211 A Study on Cancer-Cell Invasion Based On the Diffuse Interface Model

Authors: Zhang Linan, Jihwan Song, Dongchoul Kim

Abstract:

In this study, a three-dimensional haptotaxis model to simulate the migration of a population of cancer cells has been proposed. The invasion of cancer cells is related with the hapto-attractant and the effect of the interface energies between the cells and the ECM. The diffuse interface model, which incorporates the haptotaxis mechanism and interface energies, is employed. The semi-implicit Fourier spectral scheme is adopted for efficient evaluation of the simulation. The simulation results thoroughly reveal the dynamics of cancer-cell migration.

Keywords: Haptotaxis, Cancer Cells, Cell Migration, Interface Energy, Diffuse Interface Model

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7210 MIMO System Order Reduction Using Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Swadhin Ku. Mishra, Sidhartha Panda, Simanchala Padhy, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) optimization technique has been applied for large-scale linear dynamic multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) system. The method is based on error minimization technique where the integral square error between the transient responses of original and reduced order models has been minimized by RCGA. The reduction procedure is simple computer oriented and the approach is comparable in quality with the other well-known reduction techniques. Also, the proposed method guarantees stability of the reduced model if the original high-order MIMO system is stable. The proposed approach of MIMO system order reduction is illustrated with the help of an example and the results are compared with the recently published other well-known reduction techniques to show its superiority.

Keywords: Multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) system.Modelorder reduction. Integral squared error (ISE). Real-coded geneticalgorithm

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7209 Nonlinear Model Predictive Swing-Up and Stabilizing Sliding Mode Controllers

Authors: S. Kahvecioglu, A. Karamancioglu, A. Yazici

Abstract:

In this paper, a nonlinear model predictive swing-up and stabilizing sliding controller is proposed for an inverted pendulum-cart system. In the swing up phase, the nonlinear model predictive control is formulated as a nonlinear programming problem with energy based objective function. By solving this problem at each sampling instant, a sequence of control inputs that optimize the nonlinear objective function subject to various constraints over a finite horizon are obtained. Then, this control drives the pendulum to a predefined neighborhood of the upper equilibrium point, at where sliding mode based model predictive control is used to stabilize the systems with the specified constraints. It is shown by the simulations that, due to the way of formulating the problem, short horizon lengths are sufficient for attaining the swing up goal.

Keywords: Inverted pendulum, model predictive control, swingup, stabilization.

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7208 3D Modelling and Numerical Analysis of Human Inner Ear by Means of Finite Elements Method

Authors: C. Castro-Egler, A. Durán-Escalante, A. García-González

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to generate a finite element model of the human auditory inner ear system. The geometric model has been realized using 2D images from a virtual model of temporal bones. A point cloud has been gotten manually from those images to construct a whole mesh with hexahedral elements. The main difference with the predecessor models is the spiral shape of the cochlea with its three scales completely defined: scala tympani, scala media and scala vestibuli; which are separate by basilar membrane and Reissner membrane. To validate this model, numerical simulations have been realised with two models: an isolated inner ear and a whole model of human auditory system. Ideal conditions of displacement are applied over the oval window in the isolated Inner Ear model. The whole model is made up of the outer auditory channel, the tympani, the ossicular chain, and the inner ear. The boundary condition for the whole model is 1Pa over the auditory channel entrance. The numerical simulations by FEM have been done using a harmonic analysis with a frequency range between 100-10.000 Hz with an interval of 100Hz. The following results have been carried out: basilar membrane displacement; the scala media pressure according to the cochlea length and the transfer function of the middle ear normalized with the pressure in the tympanic membrane. The basilar membrane displacements and the pressure in the scala media make it possible to validate the response in frequency of the basilar membrane.

Keywords: Finite elements method, human auditory system model, numerical analysis, 3D modelling cochlea.

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7207 Prediction Modeling of Compression Properties of a Knitted Sportswear Fabric Using Response Surface Method

Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

Abstract:

Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime.

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7206 Documents Emotions Classification Model Based on TF-IDF Weighting Measure

Authors: Amr Mansour Mohsen, Hesham Ahmed Hassan, Amira M. Idrees

Abstract:

Emotions classification of text documents is applied to reveal if the document expresses a determined emotion from its writer. As different supervised methods are previously used for emotion documents’ classification, in this research we present a novel model that supports the classification algorithms for more accurate results by the support of TF-IDF measure. Different experiments have been applied to reveal the applicability of the proposed model, the model succeeds in raising the accuracy percentage according to the determined metrics (precision, recall, and f-measure) based on applying the refinement of the lexicon, integration of lexicons using different perspectives, and applying the TF-IDF weighting measure over the classifying features. The proposed model has also been compared with other research to prove its competence in raising the results’ accuracy.

Keywords: Emotion detection, TF-IDF, WEKA tool, classification algorithms.

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7205 The Study of Relative Efficiency in Growth Curve Model

Authors: Nan Chen, Baoguang Tian

Abstract:

In this paper, some relative efficiency have been discussed, including the LSE estimate with respect to BLUE in curve model. Four new kinds of relative efficiency have defined, and their upper bounds have been discussed.

Keywords: Relative efficiency, LSE estimate, BLUE estimate, Upper bound, Curve model.

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7204 A Thermodynamic Solution for the Static and Dynamic Characteristics of a Two-Lobe Journal Bearing

Authors: B. Chetti, W. A. Crosby

Abstract:

The work described in this paper is an investigation of the static and dynamic characteristics of two-lobe journal bearings taking into consideration the thermal effects. A thermo-hydrodynamic solution of a finite two-lobe journal bearing is performed by solving the generalized form Reynolds equation with the energy equation, taking into consideration viscosity variation across the film thickness. The static and dynamic characteristics were numerically obtained. The results are evaluated for different values of viscosity-temperature coefficient and Peclet number. The results show that considering the thermal effects in the solution of the two-lobe journal bearing has a marked on the study of its stability.

Keywords: Two-lobe bearing, thermal effect, static and dynamic characteristics.

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7203 A New Direct Updating Method for Undamped Structural Systems

Authors: Yongxin Yuan, Jiashang Jiang

Abstract:

A new numerical method for simultaneously updating mass and stiffness matrices based on incomplete modal measured data is presented. By using the Kronecker product, all the variables that are to be modified can be found out and then can be updated directly. The optimal approximation mass matrix and stiffness matrix which satisfy the required eigenvalue equation and orthogonality condition are found under the Frobenius norm sense. The physical configuration of the analytical model is preserved and the updated model will exactly reproduce the modal measured data. The numerical example seems to indicate that the method is quite accurate and efficient.

Keywords: Finite element model, model updating, modal data, optimal approximation.

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7202 Experimental Analysis of Diesel Hydrotreating Reactor to Development a Simplified Tool for Process Real- time Optimization

Authors: S.Shokri, S.Zahedi, M.Ahmadi Marvast, B. Baloochi, H.Ganji

Abstract:

In this research, a systematic investigation was carried out to determine the optimum conditions of HDS reactor. Moreover, a suitable model was developed for a rigorous RTO (real time optimization) loop of HDS (Hydro desulfurization) process. A systematic experimental series was designed based on CCD (Central Composite design) and carried out in the related pilot plant to tune the develop model. The designed variables in the experiments were Temperature, LHSV and pressure. However, the hydrogen over fresh feed ratio was remained constant. The ranges of these variables were respectively equal to 320-380ºC, 1- 21/hr and 50-55 bar. a power law kinetic model was also developed for our further research in the future .The rate order and activation energy , power of reactant concentration and frequency factor of this model was respectively equal to 1.4, 92.66 kJ/mol and k0=2.7*109 .

Keywords: Statistical model, Multiphase Reactors, Gas oil, Hydrodesulfurization, Optimization, Kinetics

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7201 A Location-Allocation-Routing Model for a Home Health Care Supply Chain Problem

Authors: Amir Mohammad Fathollahi Fard, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli, Mohammad Mahdi Paydar

Abstract:

With increasing life expectancy in developed countries, the role of home care services is highlighted by both academia and industrial contributors in Home Health Care Supply Chain (HHCSC) companies. The main decisions in such supply chain systems are the location of pharmacies, the allocation of patients to these pharmacies and also the routing and scheduling decisions of nurses to visit their patients. In this study, for the first time, an integrated model is proposed to consist of all preliminary and necessary decisions in these companies, namely, location-allocation-routing model. This model is a type of NP-hard one. Therefore, an Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) is utilized to solve the model, especially in large sizes. Results confirm the efficiency of the developed model for HHCSC companies as well as the performance of employed ICA.

Keywords: Home health care supply chain, location-allocation-routing problem, imperialist competitive algorithm, optimization.

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7200 A Novel Adaptive E-Learning Model Based on Developed Learner's Styles

Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Ahmed A. Saleh, Taghreed T. Asfour

Abstract:

Adaptive e-learning today gives the student a central role in his own learning process. It allows learners to try things out, participate in courses like never before, and get more out of learning than before. In this paper, an adaptive e-learning model for logic design, simplification of Boolean functions and related fields is presented. Such model presents suitable courses for each student in a dynamic and adaptive manner using existing database and workflow technologies. The main objective of this research work is to provide an adaptive e-learning model based learners' personality using explicit and implicit feedback. To recognize the learner-s, we develop dimensions to decide each individual learning style in order to accommodate different abilities of the users and to develop vital skills. Thus, the proposed model becomes more powerful, user friendly and easy to use and interpret. Finally, it suggests a learning strategy and appropriate electronic media that match the learner-s preference.

Keywords: Adaptive learning, Learning styles, Teaching strategies.

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7199 Prediction of the Torsional Vibration Characteristics of a Rotor-Shaft System Using Its Scale Model and Scaling Laws

Authors: Jia-Jang Wu

Abstract:

This paper presents the scaling laws that provide the criteria of geometry and dynamic similitude between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, and can be used to predict the torsional vibration characteristics of the full-size rotor-shaft system by manipulating the corresponding data of its scale model. The scaling factors, which play fundamental roles in predicting the geometry and dynamic relationships between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, for torsional free vibration problems between scale and full-size rotor-shaft systems are firstly obtained from the equation of motion of torsional free vibration. Then, the scaling factor of external force (i.e., torque) required for the torsional forced vibration problems is determined based on the Newton’s second law. Numerical results show that the torsional free and forced vibration characteristics of a full-size rotor-shaft system can be accurately predicted from those of its scale models by using the foregoing scaling factors. For this reason, it is believed that the presented approach will be significant for investigating the relevant phenomenon in the scale model tests.

Keywords: Torsional vibration, full-size model, scale model, scaling laws.

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7198 Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback

Authors: Jung–Min Yang

Abstract:

Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the desired input/output behavior. A matrix expression is presented to address reachability of switched asynchronous sequential machines with output equivalence with respect to a model. The presented reachability condition for the controller design is validated in a simple example.

Keywords: Asynchronous sequential machines, corrective control, model matching, input/output control.

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7197 A Study of Two Disease Models: With and Without Incubation Period

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle

Abstract:

The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a  mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.

Keywords: Asymptotic stability, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge Kutta method.

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7196 A Heuristic Statistical Model for Lifetime Distribution Analysis of Complicated Systems in the Reliability Centered Maintenance

Authors: Mojtaba Mahdavi, Mohamad Mahdavi, Maryam Yazdani

Abstract:

A heuristic conceptual model for to develop the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), especially in preventive strategy, has been explored during this paper. In most real cases which complicity of system obligates high degree of reliability, this model proposes a more appropriate reliability function between life time distribution based and another which is based on relevant Extreme Value (EV) distribution. A statistical and mathematical approach is used to estimate and verify these two distribution functions. Then best one is chosen just among them, whichever is more reliable. A numeric Industrial case study will be reviewed to represent the concepts of this paper, more clearly.

Keywords: Lifetime distribution, Reliability, Estimation, Extreme value, Improving model, Series, Parallel.

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7195 Hybrid Adaptive Modeling to Enhance Robustness of Real-Time Optimization

Authors: Hussain Syed Asad, Richard Kwok Kit Yuen, Gongsheng Huang

Abstract:

Real-time optimization has been considered an effective approach for improving energy efficient operation of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. In model-based real-time optimization, model mismatches cannot be avoided. When model mismatches are significant, the performance of the real-time optimization will be impaired and hence the expected energy saving will be reduced. In this paper, the model mismatches for chiller plant on real-time optimization are considered. In the real-time optimization of the chiller plant, simplified semi-physical or grey box model of chiller is always used, which should be identified using available operation data. To overcome the model mismatches associated with the chiller model, hybrid Genetic Algorithms (HGAs) method is used for online real-time training of the chiller model. HGAs combines Genetic Algorithms (GAs) method (for global search) and traditional optimization method (i.e. faster and more efficient for local search) to avoid conventional hit and trial process of GAs. The identification of model parameters is synthesized as an optimization problem; and the objective function is the Least Square Error between the output from the model and the actual output from the chiller plant. A case study is used to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method. It has been shown that the proposed approach is able to provide reliability in decision making, enhance the robustness of the real-time optimization strategy and improve on energy performance.

Keywords: Energy performance, hybrid adaptive modeling, hybrid genetic algorithms, real-time optimization, heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning.

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