Search results for: river flow time series

Authors: Mohammed Al-Juhaishi, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge

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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarios (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months. Each investigated (Ormes, l’Egoutier and La Corne) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP). The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 μS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 μS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 μS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 181 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 95 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Pil Woo Heo, In Sub Park

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Flows in a microchannel are laminar, which means that mixing depends on only inter-diffusion. A micromixer plays an important role in obtaining fast diagnosis results in the fields of m-TAS (total analysis system), Bio-MEMS and LOC (lab-on-a-chip).

In this paper, we propose a new active mixer with vertical flow placement via a series of inlets for micromixing. This has two inlets on the same axis, one of which is located before the other. The sample input by the first inlet flows into the down-position, while the other sample by the second inlet flows into the up-position. In the experiment, the samples were located vertically in up-down positions in a micro chamber. PZT was attached below a chamber, and ultrasonic waves were radiated in the down to up direction towards the samples in the micro chamber in order to accelerate the mixing. The mixing process was measured by the change of color in a micro chamber using phenolphthalein and NaOH. The results of the experiment showed that the samples in the microchamber were efficiently mixed and that our new active mixer was superior to the horizontal type of active mixers in view of the grey levels and the standard deviation.

Keywords: Active mixer, vertical flow placement, microchannel, bio-MEMS, LOC.

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Authors: Meredith Stevenson, John E. Porter

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Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

Keywords: Fuzzy forecasting, fuzzy time series, fuzzified enrollments, time-invariant model

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Authors: Amir Eghbal Khajeh Rahimi, Fardin Boustani, Omid Tabiee, Masoud Hashemi

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The Beshar River is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems in the upstream of the Karun watershed in south of Iran which is affected by point and non point pollutant sources . This study was done in order to evaluate the effects of pollutants activities on the water quality of the Beshar river and its aquatic ecosystems. This river is approximately 190 km in length and situated at the geographical positions of 51° 20´ to 51° 48´ E and 30° 18´ to 30° 52´ N it is one of the most important aquatic ecosystems of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad province in south-west Iran. In this research project, five study stations were selected to examine water pollution in the Beshar River systems. Human activity is now one of the most important factors affecting on hydrology and water quality of the Beshar river. Humans use large amounts of resources to sustain various standards of living, although measures of sustainability are highly variable depending on how sustainability is defined. The Beshar river ecosystems are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to human activities. Therefore, to determine the impact of human activities on the Beshar River, the most important water quality parameters such as pH, dissolve oxygen (DO), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD5), Total Dissolve Solids (TDS), Nitrates (NO3-N) and Phosphates (PO4) were estimated at the five stations. As the results show, the most important pollution index parameters such as BOD5, NO3 and PO4 increase and DO and pH decrease according to human activities (P<0.05). However, due to pollutant degradation and dilution, pollution index parameters improve downstream sampling stations.

Keywords: Human activities, Water pollution, Beshar River, Iran.

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Authors: Abdulrahman Abdulrahman

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When the Manning equation is used, a unique value of normal depth in the uniform flow exists for a given channel geometry, discharge, roughness, and slope. Depending on the value of normal depth relative to the critical depth, the flow type (supercritical or subcritical) for a given characteristic of channel conditions is determined whether or not flow is uniform. There is no general solution of Manning's equation for determining the flow depth for a given flow rate, because the area of cross section and the hydraulic radius produce a complicated function of depth. The familiar solution of normal depth for a rectangular channel involves 1) a trial-and-error solution; 2) constructing a non-dimensional graph; 3) preparing tables involving non-dimensional parameters. Author in this paper has derived semi-analytical solution to Manning's equation for determining the flow depth given the flow rate in rectangular open channel. The solution was derived by expressing Manning's equation in non-dimensional form, then expanding this form using Maclaurin's series. In order to simplify the solution, terms containing power up to 4 have been considered. The resulted equation is a quartic equation with a standard form, where its solution was obtained by resolving this into two quadratic factors. The proposed solution for Manning's equation is valid over a large range of parameters, and its maximum error is within -1.586%.

Keywords: Channel design, civil engineering, hydraulic engineering, open channel flow, Manning's equation, normal depth, uniform flow.

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Authors: S. Chuenchooklin, S. Taweepong, U. Pangnakorn

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This research was conducted in the Mae Sot Watershed where located in the Moei River Basin at the Upper Salween River Basin in Tak Province, Thailand. The Mae Sot Municipality is the largest urban area in Tak Province and situated in the midstream of the Mae Sot Watershed. It usually faces flash flood problem after heavy rain due to poor flood management has been reported since economic rapidly bloom up in recent years. Its catchment can be classified as ungauged basin with lack of rainfall data and no any stream gaging station was reported. It was attached by most severely flood events in 2013 as the worst studied case for all those communities in this municipality. Moreover, other problems are also faced in this watershed, such shortage water supply for domestic consumption and agriculture utilizations including a deterioration of water quality and landslide as well. The research aimed to increase capability building and strengthening the participation of those local community leaders and related agencies to conduct better water management in urban area was started by mean of the data collection and illustration of the appropriated application of some short period rainfall forecasting model as they aim for better flood relief plan and management through the hydrologic model system and river analysis system programs. The authors intended to apply the global rainfall data via the integrated data viewer (IDV) program from the Unidata with the aim for rainfall forecasting in a short period of 7-10 days in advance during rainy season instead of real time record. The IDV product can be present in an advance period of rainfall with time step of 3-6 hours was introduced to the communities. The result can be used as input data to the hydrologic modeling system model (HEC-HMS) for synthesizing flood hydrographs and use for flood forecasting as well. The authors applied the river analysis system model (HEC-RAS) to present flood flow behaviors in the reach of the Mae Sot stream via the downtown of the Mae Sot City as flood extents as the water surface level at every cross-sectional profiles of the stream. Both models of HMS and RAS were tested in 2013 with observed rainfall and inflow-outflow data from the Mae Sot Dam. The result of HMS showed fit to the observed data at the dam and applied at upstream boundary discharge to RAS in order to simulate flood extents and tested in the field, and the result found satisfying. The product of rainfall from IDV was fair while compared with observed data. However, it is an appropriate tool to use in the ungauged catchment to use with flood hydrograph and river analysis models for future efficient flood relief plan and management.

Keywords: Global rainfall, flood forecasting, hydrologic modeling system, river analysis system.

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Authors: Bhaskar Thakker, Anoop Lal Vyas

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Wrist pulse analysis for identification of health status is found in Ancient Indian as well as Chinese literature. The preprocessing of wrist pulse is necessary to remove outlier pulses and fluctuations prior to the analysis of pulse pressure signal. This paper discusses the identification of irregular pulses present in the pulse series and intricacies associated with the extraction of time domain pulse features. An approach of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been utilized for the identification of outlier pulses in the wrist pulse series. The ambiguity present in the identification of pulse features is resolved with the help of first derivative of Ensemble Average of wrist pulse series. An algorithm for detecting tidal and dicrotic notch in individual wrist pulse segment is proposed.

Keywords: Wrist Pulse Segment, Ensemble Average, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), Pulse Similarity Vector.

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Authors: Amin Sahraeian

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One of the criteria in production scheduling is Make Span, minimizing this criteria causes more efficiently use of the resources specially machinery and manpower. By assigning some budget to some of the operations the operation time of these activities reduces and affects the total completion time of all the operations (Make Span). In this paper this issue is practiced in parallel flow shops. At first we convert parallel flow shop to a network model and by using a linear programming approach it is identified in order to minimize make span (the completion time of the network) which activities (operations) are better to absorb the predetermined and limited budget. Minimizing the total completion time of all the activities in the network is equivalent to minimizing make span in production scheduling.

Keywords: parallel flow shop, make span, linear programming, budget

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Authors: Insung Jung, lockjo Koo, Gi-Nam Wang

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The objective of this paper is to design a model of human vital sign prediction for decreasing prediction error by using two states mapping based time series neural network BP (back-propagation) model. Normally, lot of industries has been applying the neural network model by training them in a supervised manner with the error back-propagation algorithm for time series prediction systems. However, it still has a residual error between real value and prediction output. Therefore, we designed two states of neural network model for compensation of residual error which is possible to use in the prevention of sudden death and metabolic syndrome disease such as hypertension disease and obesity. We found that most of simulations cases were satisfied by the two states mapping based time series prediction model compared to normal BP. In particular, small sample size of times series were more accurate than the standard MLP model. We expect that this algorithm can be available to sudden death prevention and monitoring AGENT system in a ubiquitous homecare environment.

Keywords: Neural network, U-healthcare, prediction, timeseries, computer aided prediction.

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Authors: D. L. David, J. A. Wahedi, Q. T. Zaku

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A study was conducted at River Mayo Ranewo and River Lau, Taraba State Nigeria. The two rivers empty into the Upper Benue Basin. A survey of visual encounter was conducted within the two wetlands from June to August, 2014. The fish record was based entirely on landings of fishermen, number of canoes that land fish was counted, types of nets and baits used on each sampling day. Fishes were sorted into taxonomic groups, identified to family/ species level, counted and weighed in groups by species. Other aquatic organisms captured by the fishermen were scallops, turtles and frogs. The relative species abundance was determined by dividing the number of species from a site by the total number of species from all tributaries/sites. The fish were preserved in 2% formaldehyde solution and taken to the laboratory, were identified through keys of identification to African fishes and field guides. Shannon-Wieiner index of species diversity indicated that the diversity was highest at River Mayo Ranewo than River Lau. Results showed that at River Mayo Ranewo, the family Mochokidae recorded the highest (23.15%), followed by Mormyridae (22.64%) and the least was the family Lepidosirenidae (0.04%). While at River Lau, the family Mochokidae recorded the highest occurrence of (24.1%), followed by Bagridae (20.20%), and then Mormyridae, which also was the second highest in River Lau, with 18.46% occurrence. There was no occurrence of Malapteruridae and Osteoglossidae (0%) in River Lau, but the least occurrence was the family Gymnarchidae (0.04%). According to the result from the t-test, the fish composition was not significantly different (p≤0.05).

Keywords: Diversity Index, Lau, Mayo Ranewo, Wetlands.

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Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Lan Hui Huang, Bo Shum Chen, Jia Liang Ke, Chung Lun Tsai

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The control of oxygen flow rate during growth of titanium dioxide by mass flow controller in DC plasma sputtering growth system is studied. The impedance of TiO2 films for inductance effect is influenced by annealing time and oxygen flow rate. As annealing time is increased, the inductance of TiO2 film is the more. The growth condition of optimum and maximum inductance for TiO2 film to serve as sensing device are oxygen flow rate of 15 sccm and large annealing time. The large inductance of TiO2 film will be adopted to fabricate the biosensor to obtain the high sensitivity of sensing in biology.

Keywords: Annealed, Inductance, Silicon substarte, Titanium dioxide

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Authors: Zhaocheng Shang

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In order to study the topic of cities crossing rivers, a Four-Dimensional Analysis Method consisting of timeline, X-axis, Y-axis, and Z-axis is proposed. Policies, plans, and their implications are summarized and researched along with the timeline. The X-axis is the direction which is parallel to the river. The research area was chosen because of its important connection function. It is proposed that more surface water network should be built because of the ecological orientation of the research area. And the analysis of groundwater makes it for sure that the proposal is feasible. After the blue water network is settled, the green landscape network which is surrounded by it could be planned. The direction which is transversal to the river (Y-axis) should run through the transportation axis so that the urban texture could stretch in an ecological way. Therefore, it is suggested that the work of the planning bureau and river bureau should be coordinated. The Z-axis research is on the section view of the river, especially on the Yellow River’s special feature of being a perched river. Based on water control safety demands, river parks could be constructed on the embankment buffer zone, whereas many kinds of ornamental trees could be used to build the buffer zone. City Crossing River is a typical case where we make use of landscaping to build a symbiotic relationship between the urban landscape architecture and the environment. The local environment should be respected in the process of city expansion. The planning order of "Benefit- Flood Control Safety" should be replaced by "Flood Control Safety - Landscape Architecture- People - Benefit".

Keywords: Blue-Green landscape network, city crossing river, four-dimensional analysis method, planning order.

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Authors: Celso A. G. Santos, Paula K. M. M. Freire

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The urban centers within northeastern Brazil are mainly influenced by the intense rainfalls, which can occur after long periods of drought, when flood events can be observed during such events. Thus, this paper aims to study the rainfall frequencies in such region through the wavelet transform. An application of wavelet analysis is done with long time series of the total monthly rainfall amount at the capital cities of northeastern Brazil. The main frequency components in the time series are studied by the global wavelet spectrum and the modulation in separated periodicity bands were done in order to extract additional information, e.g., the 8 and 16 months band was examined by an average of all scales, giving a measure of the average annual variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified. The important increases were identified in the average variance for some periods, e.g. 1947 to 1952 at Teresina city, which can be considered as high wet periods. Although, the precipitation in those sites showed similar global wavelet spectra, the wavelet spectra revealed particular features. This study can be considered an important tool for time series analysis, which can help the studies concerning flood control, mainly when they are applied together with rainfall-runoff simulations.

Keywords: rainfall data, urban center, wavelet transform.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

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Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Elena Carcano, Mirzi Betasolo

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This study helps Public Water Bureaus in giving reliable answers to water concession requests. Rapidly increasing water requests can be supported provided that further uses of a river course are not totally compromised, and environmental features are protected as well. Strictly speaking, a water concession can be considered a continuous drawing from the source and causes a mean annual streamflow reduction. Therefore, deciding if a water concession is appropriate or inappropriate seems to be easily solved by comparing the generic demand to the mean annual streamflow value at disposal. Still, the immediate shortcoming for such a comparison is that streamflow data are information available only for few catchments and, most often, limited to specific sites. Subsequently, comparing the generic water demand to mean daily discharge is indeed far from being completely satisfactory since the mean daily streamflow is greater than the water withdrawal for a long period of a year. Consequently, such a comparison appears to be of little significance in order to preserve the quality and the quantity of the river. In order to overcome such a limit, this study aims to complete the information provided by flow duration curves introducing a link between Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and recession curves and aims to show the chronological sequence of flows with a particular focus on low flow data. The analysis is carried out on 25 catchments located in North-Eastern Italy for which daily data are provided. The results identify groups of catchments as hydrologically homogeneous, having the lower part of the FDCs (corresponding streamflow interval is streamflow Q between 300 and 335, namely: Q(300), Q(335)) smoothly reproduced by a common recession curve. In conclusion, the results are useful to provide more reliable answers to water request, especially for those catchments which show similar hydrological response and can be used for a focused regionalization approach on low flow data. A mathematical link between streamflow duration curves and recession curves is herein provided, thus furnishing streamflow duration curves information upon a temporal sequence of data. In such a way, by introducing assumptions on recession curves, the chronological sequence upon low flow data can also be attributed to FDCs, which are known to lack this information by nature.

Keywords: Chronological sequence of discharges, recession curves, streamflow duration curves, water concession.

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Authors: Khalid M. Aamir, Mohammad A. Maud

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Power Spectral Density (PSD) of quasi-stationary processes can be efficiently estimated using the short time Fourier series (STFT). In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed that computes the PSD of quasi-stationary process efficiently using offline autoregressive model order estimation algorithm, recursive parameter estimation technique and modified sliding window discrete Fourier Transform algorithm. The main difference in this algorithm and STFT is that the sliding window (SW) and window for spectral estimation (WSA) are separately defined. WSA is updated and its PSD is computed only when change in statistics is detected in the SW. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is found to be lesser than that for standard STFT technique.

Keywords: Power Spectral Density (PSD), quasi-stationarytime series, short time Fourier Transform, Sliding window DFT.

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Authors: A. T. Eswara

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This paper analyses the unsteady, two-dimensional stagnation point flow of an incompressible viscous fluid over a flat sheet when the flow is started impulsively from rest and at the same time, the sheet is suddenly stretched in its own plane with a velocity proportional to the distance from the stagnation point. The partial differential equations governing the laminar boundary layer forced convection flow are non-dimensionalised using semi-similar transformations and then solved numerically using an implicit finitedifference scheme known as the Keller-box method. Results pertaining to the flow and heat transfer characteristics are computed for all dimensionless time, uniformly valid in the whole spatial region without any numerical difficulties. Analytical solutions are also obtained for both small and large times, respectively representing the initial unsteady and final steady state flow and heat transfer. Numerical results indicate that the velocity ratio parameter is found to have a significant effect on skin friction and heat transfer rate at the surface. Furthermore, it is exposed that there is a smooth transition from the initial unsteady state flow (small time solution) to the final steady state (large time solution).

Keywords: Forced flow, Keller-box method, Stagnation point, Stretching flat sheet, Unsteady laminar boundary layer, Velocity ratio parameter.

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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Authors: M. Alauddin, M. A. Ullah, M. Alom, M. N. Islam

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The rivers in Bangladesh are highly unstable having loose boundaries, mild slope of water surface and bed, irregular siltation of huge sediment coming from upstream, among others. The groins are installed in the river bank to deflect the flowing water away from the vulnerable zones. The conventional groins are found to be unstable and ineffective. The combined groin having both impermeable and permeable components in the same structure improves the flow field to function better over others. The main goal of this study is to analyze the hydraulic characteristics induced by the combined groins of different alignments by using a 2D numerical model, iRIC Nays2DH. In this numerical simulation, the K-ε model for turbulence and Cubic Interpolation Pseudo-particle (CIP) method for advective terms are utilized. A particular flow condition is applied in the channel for all sets of groins with different alignments. The simulation results reveal that the combined groins alter the flow patterns considerably, with no significant recirculation of flow in the groin field. The effect of different alignments of groins is found somewhat different. Based on hydraulic features caused by the groins, the combined groin that aligns the permeable component towards slightly downstream performs better over others.

Keywords: Combined groin, alignment, hydraulic characteristics, numerical model.

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Authors: B. S. Saini, Dilbag Singh, Moin Uddin, Vinod Kumar

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The RR interval series is non-stationary and unevenly spaced in time. For estimating its power spectral density (PSD) using traditional techniques like FFT, require resampling at uniform intervals. The researchers have used different interpolation techniques as resampling methods. All these resampling methods introduce the low pass filtering effect in the power spectrum. The lomb transform is a means of obtaining PSD estimates directly from irregularly sampled RR interval series, thus avoiding resampling. In this work, the superiority of Lomb transform method has been established over FFT based approach, after applying linear and cubicspline interpolation as resampling methods, in terms of reproduction of exact frequency locations as well as the relative magnitudes of each spectral component.

Keywords: HRV, Lomb Transform, Resampling, RR-intervals.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: Air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window.

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Authors: Ahmed Hossam-Eldin, Ahmed Elserougi, Ahmed Massoud, Shehab Ahmed

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The Inter feeder Power Flow Regulator (IFPFR) proposed in this paper consists of several voltage source inverters with common dc bus; each inverter is connected in series with one of different independent distribution feeders in the power system. This paper is concerned with how to transfer power between the feeders for load sharing purpose. The power controller of each inverter injects the power (for sending feeder) or absorbs the power (for receiving feeder) via injecting suitable voltage; this voltage injection is simulated by voltage drop across series virtual impedance, the impedance value is selected to achieve the concept of power exchange between the feeders without perturbing the load voltage magnitude of each feeder. In this paper a new control scheme for load sharing using IFPFR is proposed.

Keywords: IFPFR, Load sharing, Power transfer

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Authors: Hossein Mohammadzadeh, Mojtaba Heydarizad

Abstract:

Among various water resources, the surface water has a dominant role in providing water supply in the arid and semi-arid region of Iran. Andarokh-Kardeh basin is located in 50 km from Mashhad city - the second biggest city of Iran (NE of Iran), draining by Kardeh river which provides a significant portion of potable and irrigation water needs for Mashhad. The stable isotopes (¹⁸O, ²H,¹³C-DIC, and ¹³C-DOC), as reliable and precious water fingerprints, have been measured in Kardeh river (Kharket, Mareshk, Jong, All and Kardeh stations) and in Kardeh dam reservoirs (at five different sites S1 to S5) during March to June 2011 and June 2012. On δ¹⁸O vs. δ²H diagram, the river samples were plotted between Global and Eastern Mediterranean Meteoric Water lines (GMWL and EMMWL) which demonstrate that various moisture sources are providing humidity for precipitation events in this area. The enriched δ¹⁸O and δ²H values (-6.5 ‰ and -44.5 ‰ VSMOW) of Kardeh dam reservoir are compared to Kardeh river (-8.6‰and-54.4‰), and its deviation from Mashhad meteoric water line (MMWL- δ²H=7.16δ¹⁸O+11.22) is due to evaporation from the open surface water body. The enriched value of δ ¹³C-DIC and high amount of DIC values (-7.9 ‰ VPDB and 57.23 ppm) in the river and Kardeh dam reservoir (-7.3 ‰ VPDB and 55.53 ppm) is due to dissolution of Mozdooran Carbonate Formation lithology (Jm1 to Jm3 units) (contains enriched δ¹³C DIC values of 9.2‰ to 27.7‰ VPDB) in the region. Because of the domination of C3 vegetations in Andarokh_Kardeh basin, the δ¹³C-DOC isotope of the river (-28.4‰ VPDB) and dam reservoir (-32.3‰ VPDB) demonstrate depleted values. Higher DOC concentration in dam reservoir (2.57 ppm) compared to the river (0.72 ppm) is due to more biologogical activities and organic matters in dam reservoir.

Keywords: Dam reservoir, Iran, Kardeh river, Khorasan razavi, Stable isotopes.

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Authors: Sagaren Pillay

Abstract:

In this paper bi-annual time series data on unemployment rates (from the Labour Force Survey) are expanded to quarterly rates and linked to quarterly unemployment rates (from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey). The resultant linked series and the consumer price index (CPI) series are examined using Johansen’s cointegration approach and vector error correction modeling. The study finds that both the series are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. A statistically significant co-integrating relationship is found to exist between the time series of unemployment rates and the CPI. Given this significant relationship, the study models this relationship using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), one with a restriction on the deterministic term and the other with no restriction.

A formal statistical confirmation of the existence of a unique linear and lagged relationship between inflation and unemployment for the period between September 2000 and June 2011 is presented. For the given period, the CPI was found to be an unbiased predictor of the unemployment rate. This relationship can be explored further for the development of appropriate forecasting models incorporating other study variables.

Keywords: Forecasting, lagged, linear, relationship.

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Authors: R. May, K. Jinno, I. Yusoff

Abstract:

The paper aims at evaluating the effects of heavy groundwater withdrawal and artificial groundwater recharge of an ex-mining pond to the aquifer system of the Langat Basin through the three-dimensional (3D) numerical modeling. Many mining sites have been left behind from the massive mining exploitations in Malaysia during the England colonization era and from the last few decades. These sites are able to accommodate more than a million cubic meters of water from precipitation, runoff, groundwater, and river. Most of the time, the mining sites are turned into ponds for recreational activities. In the current study, an artificial groundwater recharge from an ex-mining pond in the Langat Basin was proposed due to its capacity to store >50 million m3 of water. The location of the pond is near the Langat River and opposite a steel company where >4 million gallons of groundwater is withdrawn on a daily basis. The 3D numerical simulation was developed using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The calibrated model (error about 0.7 m) was utilized to simulate two scenarios (1) Case 1: artificial recharge pond with no pumping and (2) Case 2: artificial pond with pumping. The results showed that in Case 1, the pond played a very important role in supplying additional water to the aquifer and river. About 90,916 m3/d of water from the pond, 1,173 m3/d from the Langat River, and 67,424 m3/d from the direct recharge of precipitation infiltrated into the aquifer system. In Case 2, due to the abstraction of groundwater from a company, it caused a steep depression around the wells, river, and pond. The result of the water budget showed an increase rate of inflow in the pond and river with 92,493m3/d and 3,881m3/d respectively. The outcome of the current study provides useful information of the aquifer behavior of the Langat Basin.

Keywords: Groundwater and surface water interaction, groundwater modeling, GMS, artificial recharge pond, ex-mining site.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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Authors: Abriak Nor Edine, Zentar Rachid, Achour Raouf, Tran Ngoc Thanh

Abstract:

This work is undertaken to develop a methodology to enhance the management of dredged marine and river sediments in the North of France. The main objective of this study is to determine the main characteristics of these sediments. In this order, physical, mineralogical and chemical properties of both types of sediments are measured. Moreover, their potential impacts on the environment are assessed throughout leaching tests. From the obtained results, the potential of their use in road engineering is discussed.

Keywords: Marine sediments, River sediments, Physicochemical characterizations, Environmental characterizations.

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Authors: Mohammed Sharif, Donald Burn

Abstract:

Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.

Keywords: flood analysis, low-flow events, climate change, trend analysis, Canada

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