Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 30114
Detection of Linkages Between Extreme Flow Measures and Climate Indices

Authors: Mohammed Sharif, Donald Burn

Abstract:

Large scale climate signals and their teleconnections can influence hydro-meteorological variables on a local scale. Several extreme flow and timing measures, including high flow and low flow measures, from 62 hydrometric stations in Canada are investigated to detect possible linkages with several large scale climate indices. The streamflow data used in this study are derived from the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network and are characterized by relatively pristine and stable land-use conditions with a minimum of 40 years of record. A composite analysis approach was used to identify linkages between extreme flow and timing measures and climate indices. The approach involves determining the 10 highest and 10 lowest values of various climate indices from the data record. Extreme flow and timing measures for each station were examined for the years associated with the 10 largest values and the years associated with the 10 smallest values. In each case, a re-sampling approach was applied to determine if the 10 values of extreme flow measures differed significantly from the series mean. Results indicate that several stations are impacted by the large scale climate indices considered in this study. The results allow the determination of any relationship between stations that exhibit a statistically significant trend and stations for which the extreme measures exhibit a linkage with the climate indices.

Keywords: flood analysis, low-flow events, climate change, trend analysis, Canada

Digital Object Identifier (DOI): doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1063248

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1149

References:


[1] Abdul Aziz, O.I. and Burn, D.H. 2006. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. J. Hydrology 319: 282-294.
[2] Andrea I. P. and Depetris, P.J. 2007. Discharge trends and flow dynamics of South American rivers draining the southern Atlantic seaboard: An overview. J. Hydrology 333, 385- 399.
[3] Burn, D.H. 1994. Hydrological effects of climatic change in west-central Canada. J. Hydrology 160, 53-70.
[4] Burn, D.H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and variability. J. Hydrology 255: 107-122.
[5] Burn, D.H., Cunderlik, J. M., and Pietroniro, A. 2004a. Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River Basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal 49(1), 53-67.
[6] Burn, D.H., Abdul Aziz, O. I., and Pietroniro, A. 2004b. A comparison of trends in hydrometeorological variables for two watersheds in the Mackenzie River Basin. Canadian Water Resources Journal 29(4), 283- 298.
[7] Burn, D. H., Hag Elnur, M. A. 2002. Detection of hydrologic trend and variability. J Hydrology 255: 107-122
[8] Burns, D. A., Klaus, J., and Mchale, M. R. 2007. Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 155- 170
[9] Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., Riddle, L. G. 1999. ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States, J. Climate, 12, 2881- 2893.
[10] Cayan, D. R., Kammerdiener, S. A., Dettinger, M. D., Caprio, J.M., Peterson, D. H. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82 (3), 399-415.
[11] Chen, H., Guo, S., Chong, yu. Xu., Singh, V.P. 2007. Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[12] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2004. Teleconnection between the Arctic Oscillation and Hudson Bay river discharge. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L18205. Doi:10.1029/2004GL020729.
[13] Dery, S. J., Wood, E.F. 2005. Decreasing river discharge in nortern Canada. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L10401. Doi:10.1029/2005GL022845.
[14] Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, Meko, D. M. 1998. Northsouth precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual - to-decadal timescales, J. Climate, 11, 3095-3111.
[15] Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., Knoll, C. N. 2000. Trends in flood and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J. Hydrology, 240, 90- 105.
[16] Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., Trimble, P. J. 2001. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and it-s relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077- 2080.
[17] Fleming, S. W., Clarke, G. K. C. 2003. Glacial control of water resources and related environmental responses to climatic warming: empirical analysis using historical streamflow data from Northwestern Canada. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(1), 69-86.
[18] Fleming, S.W., Moore, R.D., Clarke, G.K.C. 2006. Glacier-mediated streamflow teleconnections to the Arctic Oscillation. International J. Climatology 26, 619-636.
[19] Garen, D. C. 1998. ENSO indicators and long-range climate forecasts: usage in seasonal streamflow volume forecasting in the western United States, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(45), Fall Meet. Suppl., F325.
[20] Gershunov, A., Barnett, T.P. 1998. ENSO influence on intraseasonal extreme rainfall and temperature frequencies in the contiguous United States: Observations and model results. J. Climate, 11, 1575-1586
[21] Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P. 1999. Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. J. Water Res. Plann. and Manage., 125 (6), 333-341.
[22] Hamlet, A.F., Huppert, D. Lettenmaier, D. P. 2002. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower, J. Water Res. Plann. Manage., 128, 91- 101.
[23] Harvey, K.D., Pilon, P.J. and Yuzyk, T.R. 1999. Canada-s Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN). In Partnerships in Water Resources Management. Proceedings of the CWRA 51st Annual Conference, Nova Scotia.
[24] Helsel, D.R., Hirsch, R.M. 1992. Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 522 pp.
[25] Hess, A., Iyer, H., Malm, W. 2001. Linear trend analysis, a comparison of methods. Atmospheric Environment 35, 5211-5222.
[26] Higgins, R. W., A. Leetmaa, Y. Xue, Barnston, A. 2000, Dominant factors influencing the seasonal predictability of U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature, J. Climate, 13, 3994-4017.
[27] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W., Huntington, T.G. 2003. Changes in the timings of high river flows in New England over the 20th century. J. Hydrology 278, 244-252
[28] Hodgkins, G.A., Dudley, R.W. 2006. Change in the timings of winterspring streamflows in eastern North America, 1913-2002. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L06402
[29] Hoerling, M.P., Kumar, A., Zhong, M. 1997. El Nin˜o, La Nin˜a, and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Climate 10, 1769-1786.
[30] Hua, C., Guo, S., Xu, Chong-yu, Singh, V. P. 2007. Historical temporal trends of hydroclimatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J. Hydrology, 344, 171- 184.
[31] Hurrell, J.W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., Visbeek, M. (Eds.), 2003. The North Atlantic Oscillation: climate significance and environmental impact. Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 134. AGU, Washington, DC.
[32] Kahya, E., Dracup, J. A. 1993. U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to El Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2491-2503.
[33] Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Measures, Charles Griffin, London, UK.
[34] Knight, J.R., Folland, C.K., Scaife, A. A. 2006. Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
[35] Kundzewicz, Z.W., Robson, A.J. 2004.Change detection in hydrological records-a review of the methodlogy.Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1),7-19
[36] Lindstrom, G., Bergstrom, S., 2004. Runoff trends in Sweden 1807- 2002. Hydrological Sciences, 49 (1), 69-83.
[37] Lin, H., Derome, J. 1998. A three-year lagged correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and winter conditions over the North Pacific and North America. Geophysical Research Letters 25, 2829-2832.
[38] Lins, H.F., 1997. Regional streamflow regimes and hydro-climatology of the United States. Water Resources Research 33 (7), 1655-1667.
[39] Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend, Econometrica 13: 245-259.
[40] Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., Francis, R.C. 1997. A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (6), 1069-1079.
[41] Maurer, E.P., Lettenmaier, D.P., Mantua, N.J. 2004. Variability and potential sources of predictability of North American runoff. Water Resources Research 40, W09306. doi:10.1029/2003WR002789
[42] McCabe, G. J., Dettinger, M.D. 1999. Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western U.S., Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1399- 1410.
[43] Neal, E.G., Walter, M.T., Coffeen, C. 2002. Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in southeast Alaska. J. Hydrology 263, 188-197.
[44] Novotny, E.V., Stefan, H. G. 2007. Stream flow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change. J. Hydrology 334, 319- 333
[45] Serreze, M.C., Bromwich, D.H., Clark, M.P., Etringer, A.J., Zhang, T., Lammers, R. 2003. Large-scale hydro-climatology of the terrestrial Arctic drainage system. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8160. doi:10.1029/2001JD000919.
[46] Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T., and Arora, M. 2008. Basin-wide assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India. Hydrological Science Journal, 53(2), 421-433
[47] Stewart, I.T., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D. 2005. Changes towards earlier streamflow timing across western North America. J. Climate 18, 1136-1155
[48] von Storch, H., Zwiers, F.W. 1999. Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[49] Westmacott, J.R., Burn, D.H. 1997. Climate change effects on the hydrologic regime within the Churchill-Nelson River Basin. J. Hydrology 202, 263-279.
[50] Whitfield, P.H., 2001. Linked hydrologic and climatic variations in British Columbia and Yukon. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 67(1-2), 217-238.
[51] Woolhiser, D. A., T. O. Keefer, Redmond, K.T. 1993. Southern oscillation effects on daily precipitation in the southwestern united States, Water Resour. Res., 29, 1287-1295.
[52] Yue, S., Pilon, P.J., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. 2002. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. J. Hydrological Processes 16(9): 1807-1829.
[53] Zhang,Q., Liu,C., XU, C.Y., XU, Y.P., Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends of water level and Streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze River basin, China, J. Hydrolgy 324 (1-4).255-265
[54] Zhang,X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D., Yuzyk, T.R. 2001. Trends in Canadian streamflow. Water Resouces Research 37 (4), 987-998.
[55] Zhang Q, Liu C, Xu CY, Xu YP, Jiang, T. 2006. Observed trends of water level and streamflow during past 100 years in the Yangtze River basin, China. J. Hydrology 324 (1-4): 255-265