Search results for: Climatic changes

Authors: Ekesa B. Nakhauka, De Lange M., Macharia I., Garming H., Ouma E., Birachi E., Van Asten P., Van-Lauwe B., Blomme G.

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Impact of adopting products promoted by the Consortium for Improving Agriculture-based livelihoods in Central Africa (CIALCA) on food and nutrition security was tested. Multi-stage sampling was used to select 7 project mandate areas, 5 villages/mandate area (stratified into action, satellite and control sites) and 913 households. Structured questionnaires were administered; analysis of impact based on comparison between stratums, differences in means tested by ANOVA and significance of difference obtained by Tukey's HSD multiple rank tests. Perception of adequate food sufficiency received a higher rating in action and satellite sites compared to control sites reason being improved agricultural technologies. For >60% of households, worsened food security was due to climatic conditions. Although a higher proportion of households in action and satellite was meeting calorie RDIs in DRC and Burundi the difference was insignificant from control sites. 53% of respondents in control sites indicated a decrease in intake of protein rich foods, this was significantly higher than the proportion in the action (46%) and satellite (41%) sites.

Keywords: Food security, Farmer-households, Nutrition security

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Authors: ZerarkaHizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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Landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) has been an old slip since 1969; it was reactivated after an intense rainfall period in 2008 where it presents a complex shape and affects broad areas. The schist of AEH is more or less altered; the alteration is facilitated by the fracturing of the rock in its upper part, the presence of flowing water as well as physical and chemical mechanisms of desegregation in joint of altered schist. The factors following these instabilities are mostly related to the geological formation, the hydro-climatic conditions and the topography of the region. The city of AEH is located on the top of a steep slope at 50 km from the city of TiziOuzou (Algeria). AEH’s topographic monitoring of unstable slope allows analyzing the structure and the different deformation mechanism and the gradual change in the geometry, the direction of change of slip. It also allows us to delimit the area affected by the movement. This work aims to study the behavior of AEH landslide with topographic monitoring and to validate the results with numerical modeling of the slip site, when the hydraulic factors are identified as the most important factors for the reactivation of this landslide. With the help of the numerical code PLAXIS 2D and PlaxFlow, the precipitations and the steady state flow are modeled. To identify the mechanism of deformation and to predict the spread of the AEH landslide numerically, we used the equivalent deviatory strain, and these results were visualized by MATLAB software.

Keywords: Equivalent deviatory strain, landslide, numerical modeling, topographic monitoring.

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Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

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The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and nonconventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that nonconventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: Climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions.

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Authors: Uğur Çakır, Erol Sahin, Kemal Çomaklı, Aysegül Çokgez Kus

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Greenhouses offer us suitable conditions which can be controlled easily for the growth of the plant and they are made by using a covering material that allows the sun light entering into the system. Covering material can be glass, fiber glass, plastic or another transparent element. This study investigates the solar energy usability rates and solar energy benefitting rates of a semi-spherical (modified arch) type greenhouse system according to different orientations and positions which exists under climatic conditions of Bayburt. In the concept of this study it is tried to determine the best direction and best sizes of a semi-spherical greenhouse to get best solar benefit from the sun. To achieve this aim a modeling study is made by using MATLAB. However, this modeling study is run for some determined shapes and greenhouses it can be used for different shaped greenhouses or buildings. The basic parameters are determined as greenhouse azimuth angle, the rate of size of long edge to short and seasonal solar energy gaining of greenhouse. The optimum azimuth angles of 400, 300, 250, 200, 150, 100, 50 m2 modified arch greenhouse are 90o, 90o, 35o, 35o, 34o, 33o and 22o while their optimum k values (ratio of length to width) are 10, 10, 10, 10, 6, 4 and 4 respectively. Positioning the buildings in order to get more solar heat energy in winter and less in summer brings out energy and money savings and increases the comfort.

Keywords: Greenhousing, solar energy, direct radiation, renewable energy.

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Authors: Kambiz Tahvildari, Shakila ila Motamedi

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Presently and in line with the United Nations (EPA), human thinking system has shifted towards clean fuels so as to maintain a cleaner environment and to save our planet earth. One of the most successful studies in order to achieve new energies includes the use of animal wastes and their organic residues, and the result of these researches has been represented in the form of very simple and cheap methods called biogas technology. Biogas technology has developed a lot in the recent decades; its reason is the high cost of fossil fuels and the greater attention of countries to the environmental pollutions due to the consumption of this kind of fuels. IRAN is ready for the optimized application of renewable energies, having much enriched resources of this kind of energies; so a special place could be considered for it when making programs. The purpose of biogas technology is the recovery of energy and finally the protection of the environment, which is much appropriate for the third world farmers with respect to their technical abilities and economic potentials. Studies show that the production and consumption of biogas is appropriate and economic in IRAN, because of the high amount of waste in the agriculture sector, the significant amount of animal and human excrement production, the great volume of garbage produced and the most important the specific social, climatic and agricultural conditions in IRAN, in order to proceed towards the reduction of pollution due to the use of fossil fuels.

Keywords: Agriculture, Biogas, Energy, Environment.

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, econometric models, Nile Delta.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: Jongwan Eun, Sam Helwany, Lakshyana K. C.

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is significantly dependent on desalinated water and groundwater resource, which is expensive and highly energy intensive. Despite the scarce water resource, stagnates only 54% of the recycled water was reused in 2012, and due to the lack of infrastructure to reuse the recycled water, the portion is expected to decrease with growing water usage. In this study, an “Oasis” complex comprised of Sustainable Farming Compartments (SFC) was proposed for reusing treated wastewater. The wastewater is used to decrease the ambient temperature of the SFC via an evaporative cooler. The SFC prototype was designed, built, and tested in an environmentally controlled laboratory and field site to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the SFC subjected to various climatic conditions in Abu Dhabi. Based on the experimental results, the temperature drop achieved in the SFC in the laboratory and field site were5 ̊C from 22 ̊C and 7- 15 ̊C (from 33-45 ̊C to average 28 ̊C at relative humidity < 50%), respectively. An energy simulation using TRNSYS was performed to extend and validate the results obtained from the experiment. The results from the energy simulation and experiments show statistically close agreement. The total power consumption of the SFC system was approximately three and a half times lower than that of an electrical air conditioner. Therefore, by using treated wastewater, the SFC has a promising prospect to solve Abu Dhabi’s ecological concern related to desertification and wind erosion.

Keywords: Ecological farming system, energy simulation, evaporative cooling system, treated wastewater, temperature, humidity.

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Authors: Idil Kanter Otcu

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Nowadays, due to the growing problems of energy supply and the drastic reduction of natural non-renewable resources, the development of new applications in the energy sector and steps towards greater efficiency in energy consumption are required. Since buildings account for a large share of energy consumption, increasing the structural density of buildings causes an increase in energy consumption. This increase in energy consumption means that energy efficiency approaches to building design and the integration of new systems using emerging technologies become necessary in order to curb this consumption. As new systems for productive usage of generated energy are developed, buildings that require less energy to operate, with rational use of resources, need to be developed. One solution for reducing the energy requirements of buildings is through landscape planning, design and application. Requirements such as heating, cooling and lighting can be met with lower energy consumption through planting design, which can help to achieve more efficient and rational use of resources. Within this context, rather than a planting design which considers only the ecological and aesthetic features of plants, these considerations should also extend to spatial organization whereby the relationship between the site and open spaces in the context of climatic elements and planting designs are taken into account. In this way, the planting design can serve an additional purpose. In this study, a landscape design which takes into consideration location, local climate morphology and solar angle will be illustrated on a sample building project.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, landscape design, plant design, xeriscape landscape.

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Authors: D. Kaczorek

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Internal insulation of external walls is often problematic due to increased moisture content in the wall and interstitial or surface condensation risk. In this paper, the hygrothermal performance of prefabricated, concrete, large panel, external wall typical for WK70 system, commonly used in Poland in the 70’s, with inside, additional insulation was investigated. Thermal insulation board made out of hygroscopic, natural materials with moisture buffer capacity and extruded polystyrene (EPS) board was used as interior insulation. Experience with this natural insulation is rare in Poland. The analysis was performed using WUFI software. First of all, the impact of various standard boundary conditions on the behavior of the different wall assemblies was tested. The comparison of results showed that the moisture class according to the EN ISO 13788 leads to too high values of total moisture content in the wall since the boundary condition according to the EN 15026 should be usually applied. Then, hygrothermal 1D-simulations were conducted by WUFI Pro for analysis of internally added insulation, and the weak point like the joint of the wall with the concrete ceiling was verified using 2D simulations. Results showed that, in the Warsaw climate and the indoor conditions adopted in accordance with EN 15026, in the tested wall assemblies, regardless of the type of interior insulation, there would not be any problems with moisture - inside the structure and on the interior surface.

Keywords: Concrete large panel wall, hygrothermal simulation, internal insulation, moisture related issues.

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Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman

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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Bierhals, Francisco Pereira, José Leandro Néris, Matheus Rippel, Luciane Salvi

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The global concern about climate change has been increasing, since the emission of gases from human activities contributes to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, indicating significant impacts to the planet in the coming years. The study of precipitation regime is fundamental for the development of research in several areas. Among them are hydrology, agriculture, and electric sector. Using the climatic projections of the models belonging to the CMIP5, the main objective of the paper was to present an analysis of the impacts of climate change without rainfall in the Uruguay River basin. After an analysis of the results, it can be observed that for the future climate, there is a tendency, in relation to the present climate, for larger numbers of dry events, mainly in the winter months, changing the pluviometric regime for wet summers and drier winters. Given this projected framework, it is important to note the importance of adequate management of the existing water sources in the river basin, since the value of rainfall is reduced for the next years, it may compromise the dynamics of the ecosystems in the region. Facing climate change is fundamental issue for regions and cities all around the world. Society must improve its resilience to phenomenon impacts, and spreading the knowledge among decision makers and citizens is also essential. So, these research results can be subsidies for the decision-making in planning and management of mitigation measures and/or adaptation in south Brazil.

Keywords: Climate change, hydrological potential, precipitation, mitigation.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Qiong He, S. Thomas Ng

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Upgrading the thermal performance of building envelope of existing residential buildings is an effective way to reduce heat gain or heat loss. Overhang device is a common solution for building envelope improvement as it can cut down solar heat gain and thereby can reduce the energy used for space cooling in summer time. Despite that, overhang can increase the demand for indoor heating in winter due to its function of lowering the solar heat gain. Obviously, overhang has different impacts on energy use in different climatic zones which have different energy demand. To evaluate the impact of overhang device on building energy performance under different climates of China, an energy analysis model is built up in a computer-based simulation program known as DesignBuilder based on the data of a typical high-rise residential building. The energy simulation results show that single overhang is able to cut down around 5% of the energy consumption of the case building in the stand-alone situation or about 2% when the building is surrounded by other buildings in regions which predominantly rely on space cooling though it has no contribution to energy reduction in cold region. In regions with cold summer and cold winter, adding overhang over windows can cut down around 4% and 1.8% energy use with and without adjoining buildings, respectively. The results indicate that overhang might not an effective shading device to reduce the energy consumption in the mixed climate or cold regions.

Keywords: Overhang, energy analysis, computer-based simulation, high-rise residential building, mutual shading, climate.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

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Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Victor Emery David Jr, Jiang Wenchao, Yasinta John, Md. Sahadat Hossain

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Sludge originates from the process of treatment of wastewater. It is the byproduct of wastewater treatment containing concentrated heavy metals and poorly biodegradable trace organic compounds, as well as potentially pathogenic organisms (viruses, bacteria, etc.) which are usually difficult to treat or dispose of. China, like other countries, is no stranger to the challenges posed by increase of wastewater. Treatment and disposal of sludge has been a problem for most cities in China. However, this problem has been exacerbated by other issues such as lack of technology, funding, and other factors. Suitable methods for such climatic conditions are still unavailable for modern cities in China. Against this background, this paper seeks to describe the methods used for treatment and disposal of sludge from industries and suggest a suitable method for treatment and disposal in Chongqing/China. From the research conducted, it was discovered that the highest treatment rate of sludge in Chongqing was 10.08%. The industrial waste piping system is not separated from the domestic system. Considering the proliferation of industry and urbanization, there is a likelihood that the production of sludge in Chongqing will increase. If the sludge produced is not properly managed, this may lead to adverse health and environmental effects. Disposal costs and methods for Chongqing were also included in this paper’s analysis. Research showed that incineration is the most expensive method of sludge disposal in China/Chongqing. Subsequent research therefore considered optional alternatives such as composting. Composting represents a relatively cheap waste disposal method considering the vast population, current technology and economic conditions of Chongqing, as well as China at large.

Keywords: Sludge, disposal of sludge, treatment, industrial sludge, Chongqing, wastewater.

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Authors: Zs. J. Becze, Á. Krivián, M. Sárvári

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Hybrid selection and the application of hybrid specific production technologies are important in terms of the increase of the yield and crop safety of maize. The main explanation for this is climate change, since weather extremes are going on and seem to accelerate in Hungary too.

The biological bases, the selection of appropriate hybrids will be of greater importance in the future. The issue of the adaptability of hybrids will be considerably appreciated. Its good agronomical traits and stress bearing against climatic factors and agrotechnical elements (e.g. different types of herbicides) will be important. There have been examples of 3-4 consecutive droughty years in the past decades, e.g. 1992-1993-1994 or 2009-2011-2012, which made the results of crop production critical. Irrigation cannot be the solution for the problem since currently only the 2% of the arable land is irrigated. Temperatures exceeding the multi-year average are characteristic mainly to the July and August in Hungary, which significantly increase the soil surface evaporation, thus further enhance water shortage. In terms of the yield and crop safety of maize, the weather of these two months is crucial, since the extreme high temperature in July decreases the viability of the pollen and the pistil of maize, decreases the extent of fertilization and makes grain-filling tardy. Consequently, yield and crop safety decrease.

Keywords: Abiotic factors, drought, nutrition content, yield.

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Authors: Robert G. Nini

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The quality of road pavement is affected mostly by the type of sub-grade which is acting as road foundation. The roads degradation is related to many factors especially the climatic conditions, the quality, and the thickness of the base materials. The thickness of this layer depends on its California Bearing Ratio (CBR) test value which by its turn is highly affected by the quantity of water infiltrated under the road after heavy rain. The capacity of the base material to drain out its water is predominant factor because any change in moisture content causes change in sub-grade strength. This paper studies the effect of the soaking period of soil especially clay on its CBR value. For this reason, we collected many clayey samples in order to study the effect of the soaking period on its CBR value. On each soil, two groups of experiments were performed: main tests consisting of Proctor and CBR test from one side and from other side identification tests consisting of other tests such as Atterberg limits tests. Each soil sample was first subjected to Proctor test in order to find its optimum moisture content which will be used to perform the CBR test. Four CBR tests were performed on each soil with different soaking period. The first CBR was done without soaking the soil sample; the second one with two days soaking, the third one with four days soaking period and the last one was done under eight days soaking. By comparing the results of CBR tests performed with different soaking time, a more detailed understanding was given to the role of the water in reducing the CBR of soil. In fact, by extending the soaking period, the CBR was found to be reduced quickly the first two days and slower after. A precise reduction factor of the CBR in relation with soaking period was found at the end of this paper.

Keywords: California bearing ratio, clay, proctor test, soaking period, sub-grade.

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Authors: S. Pushkar, O. Verbitsky

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Currently, green rating systems are mainly utilized for correctly sizing mechanical and electrical systems, which have short lifetime expectancies. In these systems, passive solar and bio-climatic architecture, which have long lifetime expectancies, are neglected. Urban rating systems consider buildings and services in addition to neighborhoods and public transportation as integral parts of the built environment. The main goal of this study was to develop a more consistent point allocation system for urban building standards by using six different lifetime shearing layers: Site, Structure, Skin, Services, Space, and Stuff, each reflecting distinct environmental damages. This shearing-layer concept was applied to internationally well-known rating systems: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Neighborhood Development, BRE Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM) for Communities and Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency (CASBEE) for Urban Development. The results showed that LEED for Neighborhood Development and BREEAM for Communities focused on long-lifetime-expectancy building designs, whereas CASBEE for Urban Development gave equal importance to the Building and Service Layers. Moreover, although this rating system was applied using a building-scale assessment, “Urban Area + Buildings” focuses on a short-lifetime-expectancy system design, neglecting to improve the architectural design by considering bioclimatic and passive solar aspects.

Keywords: Green rating system, passive solar architecture, shearing-layer concept, urban community.

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Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

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North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean Region, North Sea Caspian Pattern, precipitation, temperature.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

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Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

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Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: Biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model.

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Authors: Clara Shenderey, Helena Vitoshkin, Mordechai Barak, Avraham Arbel

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Greenhouse cultivation is an energy-intensive process due to the high demands on cooling or heating according to external climatic conditions, which could be extreme in the summer or winter seasons. The thermal radiation rate inside a greenhouse depends mainly on the type of covering material and greenhouse construction. Using additional thermal screens under a greenhouse covering combined with a dehumidification system improves the insulation and could be cost-effective. Greenhouse covering material usually contains protective ultraviolet (UV) radiation additives to prevent the film wear, insect harm, and crop diseases. This paper investigates the overall heat transfer coefficient, or U-value, for greenhouse polyethylene covering contains UV-additives and glass covering with or without a thermal screen supplement. The hot-box method was employed to evaluate overall heat transfer coefficients experimentally as a function of the type and number of the thermal screens. The results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient decreases with increasing the number of thermal screens as a hyperbolic function. The overall heat transfer coefficient highly depends on the ability of the material to reflect thermal radiation. Using a greenhouse covering, i.e., polyethylene films or glass, in combination with high reflective thermal screens, i.e., containing about 98% of aluminum stripes or aluminum foil, the U-value reduces by 61%-89% in the first case, whereas by 70%-92% in the second case, depending on the number of the thermal screen. Using thermal screens made from low reflective materials may reduce the U-value by 30%-57%. The heat transfer coefficient is an indicator of the thermal insulation properties of the materials, which allows farmers to make decisions on the use of appropriate thermal screens depending on the external and internal climate conditions in a greenhouse.

Keywords: Energy-saving thermal screen, greenhouse covering material, heat transfer coefficient, hot box.

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Authors: Dolores Hidalgo, Jesús M. Martín-Marroquín, Francisco Corona

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Municipal waste consist of a variety of items that are everyday discarded by the population. They are usually collected by municipalities and include waste generated by households, commercial activities (local shops) and public buildings. The composition of municipal waste varies greatly from place to place, being mostly related to levels and patterns of consumption, rates of urbanization, lifestyles, and local or national waste management practices. Each year, a huge amount of resources is consumed in the EU, and according to that, also a huge amount of waste is produced. The environmental problems derived from the management and processing of these waste streams are well known, and include impacts on land, water and air. The situation in remote areas is even worst. Difficult access when climatic conditions are adverse, remoteness of centralized municipal treatment systems or dispersion of the population, are all factors that make remote areas a real municipal waste treatment challenge. Furthermore, the scope of the problem increases significantly because the total lack of awareness of the existing risks in this area together with the poor implementation of advanced culture on waste minimization and recycling responsibly. The aim of this work is to analyze the existing situation in remote areas in reference to the production of municipal waste and evaluate the efficiency of different management alternatives. Ideas for improving waste management in remote areas include, for example: the implementation of self-management systems for the organic fraction; establish door-to-door collection models; promote small-scale treatment facilities or adjust the rates of waste generation thereof.

Keywords: Door to door collection, islands, isolated areas, municipal waste, remote areas, rural communities.

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Authors: Raghad Alhusari, Farag Omar, Moustafa Fadel

Abstract:

A traditional greenhouse is a metal frame agricultural building used for cultivation plants in a controlled environment isolated from external climatic changes. Using greenhouses in agriculture is an efficient way to reduce the water consumption, where agriculture field is considered the biggest water consumer world widely. Controlling greenhouse environment yields better productivity of plants but demands an increase of electric power. Although various control approaches have been used towards greenhouse automation, most of them are applied to traditional greenhouses with ventilation fans and/or evaporation cooling system. Such approaches are still demanding high energy and water consumption. The aim of this research is to develop a fuzzy control system that minimizes water and energy consumption by utilizing outside weather conditions and underground heat exchanger to maintain the optimum climate of the greenhouse. The proposed control system is implemented on an experimental model of thermally isolated greenhouse structure with dimensions of 6x5x2.8 meters. It uses fans for extracting heat from the ground heat exchanger system, motors for automatic open/close of the greenhouse windows and LED as lighting system. The controller is integrated also with environmental condition sensors. It was found that using the air-to-air horizontal ground heat exchanger with 90 mm diameter and 2 mm thickness placed 2.5 m below the ground surface results in decreasing the greenhouse temperature of 3.28 ˚C which saves around 3 kW of consumed energy. It also eliminated the water consumption needed in evaporation cooling systems which are traditionally used for cooling the greenhouse environment.

Keywords: Automation, earth-to-air heat exchangers, fuzzy control, greenhouse, sustainable buildings.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Elhaj, Jamal S. Yassin

Abstract:

Owing to the lack of synchronization between the solar energy availability and the heat demands in a specific application, the energy storing sub-system is necessary to maintain the continuity of thermal process. The present work is dealing with an active solar heating storing system in which an air solar collector is connected to storing unit where this energy is distributed and provided to the heated space in a controlled manner. The solar collector is a box type absorber where the air flows between a number of vanes attached between the collector absorber and the bottom plate. This design can improve the efficiency due to increasing the heat transfer area exposed to the flowing air, as well as the heat conduction through the metal vanes from the top absorbing surface. The storing unit is a packed bed type where the air is coming from the air collector and circulated through the bed in order to add/remove the energy through the charging / discharging processes, respectively. The major advantage of the packed bed storage is its high degree of thermal stratification. Numerical solution of the packed bed energy storage is considered through dividing the bed into a number of equal segments for the bed particles and solved the energy equation for each segment depending on the neighbor ones. The studied design and performance parameters in the developed simulation model including, particle size, void fraction, etc. The final results showed that the collector efficiency was fluctuated between 55%-61% in winter season (January) under the climatic conditions of Misurata in Libya. Maximum temperature of 52ºC is attained at the top of the bed while the lower one is 25ºC at the end of the charging process of hot air into the bed. This distribution can satisfy the required load for the most house heating in Libya.

Keywords: Solar energy, thermal process, performance, collector, packed bed, numerical analysis, simulation.

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Authors: Manat Srivanit, Hokao Kazunori

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Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The urban climate, representing different urban morphologies across central Bangkok metropolitan area (BMA), are used to investigates the effects of both the composition and configuration of variables of urban morphology indicators on the summer diurnal range of urban climate, using correlation analyses and multiple linear regressions. Results show first indicate that approximately 92.6% of the variation in the average maximum daytime near-surface air temperature (Ta) was explained jointly by the two composition variables of urban morphology indicators including open space ratio (OSR) and floor area ratio (FAR). It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to the local climate zones (LCZs) using these urban morphology descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. Finally result found the temperature differences among zones of large separation, such as the city center could be respectively from 35.48±1.04ºC (Mean±S.D.) warmer than the outskirt of Bangkok on average for maximum daytime near surface temperature to 28.27±0.21ºC for extreme event and, can exceed as 8ºC. A spatially disaggregation of urban thermal responsiveness map would be helpful for several reasons. First, it would localize urban areas concerned by different climate behavior over summer daytime and be a good indicator of urban climate variability. Second, when overlaid with a land cover map, this map may contribute to identify possible urban management strategies to reduce heat wave effects in BMA.

Keywords: Urban climate, Urban morphology, Local climate zone, Urban planning, GIS and remote sensing

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Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli

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This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.

Keywords: Analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges.

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Authors: Guadalupe Pérez, Jorge Islas, Mirna Guevara, Raúl Suárez

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Jatropha curcas is a perennial oleaginous plant that is currently considered an energy crop with high potential as an environmentally sustainable biofuel. During the last decades, research in biofuels has grown in tropical and subtropical regions in Latin America. However, as far we know, there are no reports on the growth and yield patterns of Jatropha curcas under the specific agro climatic scenarios of the State of Morelos, Mexico. This study presents the results of 52 months monitoring of 10 toxic and non-toxic ecotypes of Jatropha curcas (E1M, E2M, E3M, E4M, E5M, E6O, E7O, E8O, E9C, E10C) in an experimental plantation with minimum watering and fertilization resources. The main objective is to identify the ecotypes with the highest potential as biodiesel raw material in the select region, by developing experimental information. Specifically, we monitored biophysical and growth parameters, including plant survival and seed production (at the end of month 52), to study the performance of each ecotype and to establish differences among the variables of morphological growth, net seed oil content, and toxicity. To analyze the morphological growth, a statistical approach to the biophysical parameters was used; the net seed oil content -80 to 192 kg/ha- was estimated with the first harvest; and the toxicity was evaluated by examining the phorbol ester concentration (µg/L) in the oil extracted from the seeds. The comparison and selection of ecotypes was performed through a methodology developed based on the normalization of results. We identified four outstanding ecotypes (E1M, E2M, E3M, and E4M) that can be used to establish Jatropha curcas as energy crops in the state of Morelos for feasible agro-industrial production of biodiesel and other products related to the use of biomass.

Keywords: Biodiesel production, Jatropha curcas, morphologic growth, toxic and non-toxic ecotypes, seed oil content.

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Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny

Abstract:

The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.

Keywords: Adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood.

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