Search results for: M5 decision tree model

Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

Abstract:

The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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Authors: Kaveh Mohammad Cyrus, Shadi Sanagoo

Abstract:

MABENA model is a complementary model in comparison with traditional models such as HCMS, CMS and etc. New factors, which have effects on preparation of strategic plans and their sequential order in MABENA model is the platform of presented road map in this paper.Study review shows, factors such as emerging new critical success factors for strategic planning, improvement of international strategic models, increasing the maturity of companies and emerging new needs leading to design a new model which can be responsible for new critical factors and solve the limitations of previous strategic management models. Preparation of strategic planning need more factors than introduced in traditional models. The needed factors includes determining future Critical Success Factors and competencies, defining key processes, determining the maturity of the processes, considering all aspects of the external environment etc. Description of aforementioned requirements, the outcomes and their order is developing and presenting the MABENA model-s road map in this paper. This study presents a road map for strategic planning of the Iranian organizations.

Keywords: Competitive Advantage, Process Maturity, StrategicPlanning, Strategic potential

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

Abstract:

This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring.

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Authors: Dennys Robson Girardi, Hugo Bulegon, Claudia Maria Moro Barra

Abstract:

Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium Leprae, this disease, generally, compromises the neural fibers, leading to the development of disability. Disabilities are changes that limit daily activities or social life of a normal individual. When comes to leprosy, the study of disability considered the functional limitation (physical disabilities), the limitation of activity and social participation, which are measured respectively by the scales: EHF, SALSA and PARTICIPATION SCALE. The objective of this work is to propose an on-line monitoring of leprosy patients, which is based on information scales EHF, SALSA and PARTICIPATION SCALE. It is expected that the proposed system is applied in monitoring the patient during treatment and after healing therapy of the disease. The correlations that the system is between the scales create a variety of information, presented the state of the patient and full of changes or reductions in disability. The system provides reports with information from each of the scales and the relationships that exist between them. This way, health professionals, with access to patient information, can intervene with techniques for the Prevention of Disability. Through the automated scale, the system shows the level of the patient and allows the patient, or the responsible, to take a preventive measure. With an online system, it is possible take the assessments and monitor patients from anywhere.

Keywords: Leprosy, Medical Informatics, Decision SupportSystem, Disability.

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Authors: Teerawach Khamkorn, Laongtip Mathurasa, Savittree Rochanasmita Arnold, Witthaya Mekhum

Abstract:

The objective of this research intends to create a suitable model of distance training for community leaders in the upper northeastern region of Thailand. The implementation of the research process is divided into four steps: The first step is to analyze relevant documents. The second step deals with an interview in depth with experts. The third step is concerned with constructing a model. And the fourth step takes aim at model validation by expert assessments. The findings reveal the two important components for constructing an appropriate model of distance training for community leaders in the upper northeastern region. The first component consists of the context of technology management, e.g., principle, policy and goals. The second component can be viewed in two ways. Firstly, there are elements comprising input, process, output and feedback. Secondly, the sub-components include steps and process in training. The result of expert assessments informs that the researcher-s constructed model is consistent and suitable and overall the most appropriate.

Keywords: Constructing, Distance Training, Management, Technology.

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Authors: Ketan Naik, P. H. Bhathawala

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of Human Cardiovascular System using lumped parameter method. The model is divided in three parts: Systemic Circulation, Pulmonary Circulation and the Heart. The established mathematical model has been simulated by MATLAB software. The innovation of this study is in describing the system based on the vessel diameters and simulating mathematical equations with active electrical elements. Terminology of human physical body and required physical data like vessel’s radius, thickness etc., which are required to calculate circuit parameters like resistance, inductance and capacitance, are proceeds from well-known medical books. The developed model is useful to understand the anatomic of human cardiovascular system and related syndromes. The model is deal with vessel’s pressure and blood flow at certain time.

Keywords: Cardiovascular system, lumped parameter method, mathematical modeling, simulation.

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Authors: Dipeng Chen, Qi Li

Abstract:

Image fusion aims to enhance the perception of a scene by combining important information captured by different sensors. Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet (DT-CWT) has been thouroughly investigated for image fusion, since it takes advantages of approximate shift invariance and direction selectivity. But it can only handle limited direction information. To allow a more flexible directional expansion for images, we propose a novel fusion scheme, referred to as complex contourlet transform (CCT). It successfully incorporates directional filter banks (DFB) into DT-CWT. As a result it efficiently deal with images containing contours and textures, whereas it retains the property of shift invariance. Experimental results demonstrated that the method features high quality fusion performance and can facilitate many image processing applications.

Keywords: Complex contourlet transform, Complex wavelettransform, Fusion.

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Authors: Norashikin Ahmad, Damminda Alahakoon

Abstract:

Self-organizing map (SOM) provides both clustering and visualization capabilities in mining data. Dynamic self-organizing maps such as Growing Self-organizing Map (GSOM) has been developed to overcome the problem of fixed structure in SOM to enable better representation of the discovered patterns. However, in mining large datasets or historical data the hierarchical structure of the data is also useful to view the cluster formation at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we present a technique to generate concept trees from the GSOM. The formation of tree from different spread factor values of GSOM is also investigated and the quality of the trees analyzed. The results show that concept trees can be generated from GSOM, thus, eliminating the need for re-clustering of the data from scratch to obtain a hierarchical view of the data under study.

Keywords: dynamic self-organizing map, concept formation, clustering.

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Authors: Oke Oktavianty, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Junji Kaneko, Ken Kaminishi

Abstract:

Modelica has many advantages and it is very useful in modeling and simulation especially for the multi-domain with a complex technical system. However, the big obstacle for a beginner is to understand the basic concept and to build a new system model for a real system. In order to understand how to solve the simple circuit model by hand translation and to get a better understanding of how modelica works, we provide a detailed explanation about solver ordering system in horizontal and vertical sorting and make some proposals for improvement. In this study, some difficulties in using modelica software with the original concept and the comparison with Finite Element Method (FEM) approach is discussed. We also present our textual modeling approach using FEM concept for acausal and causal model construction. Furthermore, simulation results are provided that demonstrate the comparison between using textual modeling with original coding in modelica and FEM concept.

Keywords: FEM, acausal model, modelica, horizontal and vertical sorting.

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Authors: Amel Grissa-Touzi, Minyar Sassi

Abstract:

Conception is the primordial part in the realization of a computer system. Several tools have been used to help inventors to describe their software. These tools knew a big success in the relational databases domain since they permit to generate SQL script modeling the database from an Entity/Association model. However, with the evolution of the computer domain, the relational databases proved their limits and object-relational model became used more and more. Tools of present conception don't support all new concepts introduced by this model and the syntax of the SQL3 language. We propose in this paper a tool of help to the conception and implementation of object-relational databases called «NAVIGTOOLS" that allows the user to generate script modeling its database in SQL3 language. This tool bases itself on the Entity/Association and navigational model for modeling the object-relational databases.

Keywords: Abstract Data Table, Navigational model, Objectrelational databases, References.

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Authors: Min Kyung An

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the data collection problem in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) adopting the two interference models: The graph model and the more realistic physical interference model known as Signal-to-Interference-Noise-Ratio (SINR). The main issue of the problem is to compute schedules with the minimum number of timeslots, that is, to compute the minimum latency schedules, such that data from every node can be collected without any collision or interference to a sink node. While existing works studied the problem with unit-sized and unbounded-sized message models, we investigate the problem with the bounded-sized message model, and introduce a constant factor approximation algorithm. To the best known of our knowledge, our result is the first result of the data collection problem with bounded-sized model in both interference models.

Keywords: Data collection, collision-free, interference-free, physical interference model, SINR, approximation, bounded-sized message model, wireless sensor networks, WSN.

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Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

Abstract:

A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

Abstract:

Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.

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Authors: Huang Shengqin, Xiao Hong

Abstract:

LES with mixed subgrid-scale model has been used to simulate aerodynamic performance of hypersonic configuration. The simulation was conducted to replicate conditions and geometry of a model which has been previously tested. LES Model has been successful in predict pressure coefficient with the max error 1.5% besides afterbody. But in the high Mach number condition, it is poor in predict ability and product 12.5% error. The calculation error are mainly conducted by the distribution swirling. The fact of poor ability in the high Mach number and afterbody region indicated that the mixed subgrid-scale model should be improved in large eddied especially in hypersonic separate region. In the condition of attach and sideslip flight, the calculation results have waves. LES are successful in the prediction the pressure wave in hypersonic flow.

Keywords: Hypersonic, LES, mixed Subgrid-scale model, experiment.

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Authors: James D. Gadze, Niki Pissinou, Kia Makki

Abstract:

In this paper we propose an intelligent agent approach to control the electric power grid at a smaller granularity in order to give it self-healing capabilities. We develop a method using the influence model to transform transmission substations into information processing, analyzing and decision making (intelligent behavior) units. We also develop a wireless communication method to deliver real-time uncorrupted information to an intelligent controller in a power system environment. A combined networking and information theoretic approach is adopted in meeting both the delay and error probability requirements. We use a mobile agent approach in optimizing the achievable information rate vector and in the distribution of rates to users (sensors). We developed the concept and the quantitative tools require in the creation of cooperating semiautonomous subsystems which puts the electric grid on the path towards intelligent and self-healing system.

Keywords: Mobile agent, power system operation and control, real time, wireless communication.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

Due to the increasing penetration of wind energy, it is necessary to possess design tools that are able to simulate the impact of these installations in utility grids. In order to provide a net contribution to this issue a detailed wind park model has been developed and is briefly presented. However, the computational costs associated with the performance of such a detailed model in describing the behavior of a wind park composed by a considerable number of units may render its practical application very difficult. To overcome this problem integral manifolds theory has been applied to reduce the order of the detailed wind park model, and therefore create the conditions for the development of a dynamic equivalent which is able to retain the relevant dynamics with respect to the existing a.c. system. In this paper integral manifold method has been introduced for order reduction. Simulation results of the proposed method represents that integral manifold method results fit the detailed model results with a higher precision than singular perturbation method.

Keywords: Wind, Reduced Order, Integral Manifold.

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Authors: Hemant Kumawat

Abstract:

Axial flow fans, while incapable of developing high pressures, they are well suitable for handling large volumes of air at relatively low pressures. In general, they are low in cost and possess good efficiency, and can have blades of airfoil shape. Axial flow fans show good efficiencies, and can operate at high static pressures if such operation is necessary. Our objective is to model and analyze the flow through AXIAL FANS using CFD Software and draw inference from the obtained results, so as to get maximum efficiency. The performance of an axial fan was simulated using CFD and the effect of variation of different parameters such as the blade number, noise level, velocity, temperature and pressure distribution on the blade surface was studied. This paper aims to present a final 3D CAD model of axial flow fan. Adapting this model to the available components in the market, the first optimization was done. After this step, CFX flow solver is used to do the necessary numerical analyses on the aerodynamic performance of this model. This analysis results in a final optimization of the proposed 3D model which is presented in this article.

Keywords: ANSYS CFX, Axial Fan, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Optimization.

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Authors: Rujira Kongnuy, Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

Dengue fever is an important human arboviral disease. Outbreaks are now reported quite often from many parts of the world. The number of cases involving pregnant women and infant cases are increasing every year. The illness is often severe and complications may occur. Deaths often occur because of the difficulties in early diagnosis and in the improper management of the diseases. Dengue antibodies from pregnant women are passed on to infants and this protects the infants from dengue infections. Antibodies from the mother are transferred to the fetus when it is still in the womb. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model to describe the transmission of this disease in pregnant women. The model is formulated by dividing the human population into pregnant women and non-pregnant human (men and non-pregnant women). Each class is subdivided into susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) subclasses. We apply standard dynamical analysis to our model. Conditions for the local stability of the equilibrium points are given. The numerical simulations are shown. The bifurcation diagrams of our model are discussed. The control of this disease in pregnant women is discussed in terms of the threshold conditions.

Keywords: Dengue disease, local stability, mathematical model, pregnancy.

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Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, František Pochylý, Simona Fialová, Vladimír Habán

Abstract:

A mathematical model of the additional effects of the liquid in the hydrodynamic gap is presented in the paper. An incompressible viscous fluid is considered. Based on computational modeling are determined the matrices of mass, stiffness and damping. The mathematical model is experimentally verified.

Keywords: Computational modeling, mathematical model, hydrodynamic gap, matrices of mass, stiffness and damping.

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Authors: Yuan Zheng

Abstract:

3D model-based vehicle matching provides a new way for vehicle recognition, localization and tracking. Its key is to construct an evaluation function, also called fitness function, to measure the degree of vehicle matching. The existing fitness functions often poorly perform when the clutter and occlusion exist in traffic scenarios. In this paper, we present a practical and efficient fitness function. Unlike the existing evaluation functions, the proposed fitness function is to study the vehicle matching problem from both local and global perspectives, which exploits the pixel gradient information as well as the silhouette information. In view of the discrepancy between 3D vehicle model and real vehicle, a weighting strategy is introduced to differently treat the fitting of the model’s wireframes. Additionally, a normalization operation for the model’s projection is performed to improve the accuracy of the matching. Experimental results on real traffic videos reveal that the proposed fitness function is efficient and robust to the cluttered background and partial occlusion.

Keywords: 3D-2D matching, fitness function, 3D vehicle model, local image gradient, silhouette information.

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Authors: Hanieh Alipour, Alireza Nemaney Pour

Abstract:

One of the most important applications of wireless sensor networks is data collection. This paper proposes as efficient approach for data collection in wireless sensor networks by introducing Member Forward List. This list includes the nodes with highest priority for forwarding the data. When a node fails or dies, this list is used to select the next node with higher priority. The benefit of this node is that it prevents the algorithm from repeating when a node fails or dies. The results show that Member Forward List decreases power consumption and latency in wireless sensor networks.

Keywords: Data Collection, Wireless Sensor Network, SensorNode, Tree-Based

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Authors: Nhon Van Do, Nam Hoai Le, Vien Chan Luong

Abstract:

The Model for Knowledge Base of Computational Objects (KBCO model) has been successfully applied to represent the knowledge of human like Plane Geometry, Physical, Calculus. However, the original model cannot easyly apply in inorganic chemistry field because of the knowledge specific problems. So, the aim of this article is to introduce how we extend the Computional Object (Com-Object) in KBCO model, kinds of fact, problems model, and inference algorithms to develop a program for solving problems in inorganic chemistry. Our purpose is to develop the application that can help students in their study inorganic chemistry at schools. This application was built successful by using Maple, C# and WPF technology. It can solve automatically problems and give human readable solution agree with those writting by students and teachers.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, automated problem solving, knowledge base system, knowledge representation, reasoning strategy, education software/educational applications.

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Authors: Pınar Tüfekçi, Yılmaz Kılıçaslan

Abstract:

In this paper we present a computational model for pronominal anaphora resolution in Turkish. The model is based on Hobbs’ Naїve Algorithm [4, 5, 6], which exploits only the surface syntax of sentences in a given text.

Keywords: Anaphora Resolution, Pronoun Resolution, Syntax based Algorithms, Naїve Algorithm.

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Authors: Suzanne Yaganeh, Janni Nielsen, Leif Bloch Rasmussen

Abstract:

This paper invites to dialogue and reflections on innovation and entrepreneurship by presenting concepts of innovation leading to the introduction of a complex theoretical framework; Cooperative Innovation (CO-IN). CO-IN is a didactic model enhancing and scaffolding processes of cooperation creating innovation drawing on a Scandinavian tradition. CO-IN is based on a cross-sectorial and multidisciplinary approach. We introduce the concept of complementarity to help capture the validity of diversity and we suggest the concept of “the space in between" to understand the creation of identity as a collective mind. We see dialogue and the use of multi modal techniques as essential tools for conceptualizations giving possibility for clarification of the complexity and diversity leading to decision making based on knowledge as commons. We introduce the didactic design and present our empirical findings from an innovation workshop in Argentina. In a final paragraph we reflect on the design as a support of the development of common ground, collective mind and collective action and the creation of knowledge as commons to facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: CO-operative Innovation, didactic design, dialogue and ICT.

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Authors: M. A. Omoloye, M. I. Yusuff, O. K. S. Emiola

Abstract:

The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.

Keywords: Differential Transform Method, Existence and uniqueness, Lassa fever, Runge-Kutta Method.

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Authors: Ahmad Puad Mat Som, Mohammad Bader Badarneh

Abstract:

Tourism researchers have recently focused on repeat visitation as a part of destination loyalty. Different models have also considered satisfaction as the main determinant of revisit intention, while findings in many studies show it as a continuous issue. This conceptual paper attempts at evaluating recent empirical studies on satisfaction and revisit intention. Based on limitations and gaps in recent studies, the current paper suggests a new model that would be more comprehensive than those in previous studies. The new model offers new relationships between antecedents (destination image, perceived value, specific novelty seeking, and distance to destination) and both of satisfaction and revisit intention. Revisit intention in turn is suggested to be measured in a temporal approach.

Keywords: Satisfaction, revisit intention, a new model.

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Authors: Priyadarsini P.L.K, Hemalatha T.

Abstract:

In the Top Right Access point Minimum Length Corridor (TRA-MLC) problem [1], a rectangular boundary partitioned into rectilinear polygons is given and the problem is to find a corridor of least total length and it must include the top right corner of the outer rectangular boundary. A corridor is a tree containing a set of line segments lying along the outer rectangular boundary and/or on the boundary of the rectilinear polygons. The corridor must contain at least one point from the boundaries of the outer rectangle and also the rectilinear polygons. Gutierrez and Gonzalez [1] proved that the MLC problem, along with some of its restricted versions and variants, are NP-complete. In this paper, we give a shorter proof of NP-Completeness of TRA-MLC by findig the reduction in the following way.

Keywords: NP-complete, 2-connected planar graph, Grid embedding of a plane graph.

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: Non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson Innovations, CML

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj

Abstract:

The applicability of Net Present Value (NPV) in an investment project is becoming more and more popular in the field of engineering economics. The classical NPV methodology involves only the precise and accurate data of the investment project. In the present communication, we give a new mathematical model for NPV which uses the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. The proposed model is based on triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, which may be known as Intuitionistic Fuzzy Net Present Value (IFNPV). The model has been applied to an example and the results are presented.

Keywords: Net Present Value, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set, Investment Projects.

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Authors: G. Sakar, F. Ç. Bolat

Abstract:

In this study free vibration analysis of aluminum honeycomb sandwich structures were carried out experimentally and numerically. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of sandwich structures fabricated with different configurations for clamped-free boundary condition were determined. The effects of lower and upper face sheet thickness, the core material thickness, cell diameter, cell angle and foil thickness on the vibration characteristics were examined. The numerical studies were performed with ANSYS package. While the sandwich structures were modeled in ANSYS the continuum model was used. Later, the numerical results were compared with the experimental findings.

Keywords: Sandwich structure, free vibration, numeric analysis, 3D model, continuum model.

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