Search results for: movement prediction

Authors: A. Soualem

Abstract:

The design of multi stage deep drawing processes requires the evaluation of many process parameters such as the intermediate die geometry, the blank shape, the sheet thickness, the blank holder force, friction, lubrication etc..These process parameters have to be determined for the optimum forming conditions before the process design. In general sheet metal forming may involve stretching drawing or various combinations of these basic modes of deformation. It is important to determine the influence of the process variables in the design of sheet metal working process. Especially, the punch and die corner for deep drawing will affect the formability. At the same time the prediction of sheet metals springback after deep drawing is an important issue to solve for the control of manufacturing processes. Nowadays, the importance of this problem increases because of the use of steel sheeting with high stress and also aluminum alloys.

The aim of this paper is to give a better understanding of the springback and its effect in various sheet metals forming process such as expansion and restreint deep drawing in the cup drawing process, by varying radius die, lubricant for two commercially available materials e.g. galvanized steel and Aluminum sheet. To achieve these goals experiments were carried out and compared with other results. The original of our purpose consist on tests which are ensured by adapting a U-type stretching-bending device on a tensile testing machine, where we studied and quantified the variation of the springback.

Keywords: Deep drawing, Expansion, Restreint deep drawing, Springback.

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: Juhee Lee, Yongjun Lee

Abstract:

In designing a low-energy-consuming buildings, the heat transfer through a large glass or wall becomes critical. Multiple layers of the window glasses and walls are employed for the high insulation. The gravity driven air flow between window glasses or wall layers is a natural heat convection phenomenon being a key of the heat transfer. For the first step of the natural heat transfer analysis, in this study the development and application of a finite volume method for the numerical computation of viscous incompressible flows is presented. It will become a part of the natural convection analysis with high-order scheme, multi-grid method, and dual-time step in the future. A finite volume method based on a fully-implicit second-order is used to discretize and solve the fluid flow on unstructured grids composed of arbitrary-shaped cells. The integrations of the governing equation are discretised in the finite volume manner using a collocated arrangement of variables. The convergence of the SIMPLE segregated algorithm for the solution of the coupled nonlinear algebraic equations is accelerated by using a sparse matrix solver such as BiCGSTAB. The method used in the present study is verified by applying it to some flows for which either the numerical solution is known or the solution can be obtained using another numerical technique available in the other researches. The accuracy of the method is assessed through the grid refinement.

Keywords: Finite volume method, fluid flow, laminar flow, unstructured grid.

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Authors: Walid MOUDANI

Abstract:

The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: Multi-Classifier Decisions Tree, Features Reduction, Dynamic Programming, Rough Sets.

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Authors: Zeynep İltüzer Samur, Gül Tekin Temur

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Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.

Keywords: Option Pricing, Neural Network, S&P 100 Index, American/European options

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Authors: Nardine El Bardisy, Wolf Reuter, Ayat Ismail

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In Egypt, there is continuous housing demand as a result of rapid population growth. In 1979, this forced the government to establish new urban communities in order to decrease stress around delta. New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) was formulated to take the responsibly of this new policy. These communities suffer from social life deficiency due to their typology, which is separated island with barriers. New urban communities’ typology results from the influence of neoliberalism movement and modern city planning forms. The lack of social interaction in these communities at present should be enhanced in the future. On a global perspective, sustainable development calls for creating more sustainable communities which include social, economic and environmental aspects. From 1960, planners were highly focusing on the promotion of the social dimension in urban development plans. The research hypothesis states: “It is possible to promote social interaction in new urban communities through a set of socio-spatial recommended strategies that are tailored for Greater Cairo Region context”. In order to test this hypothesis, the case of El-Sherouk city is selected, which represents the typical NUCA development plans. Social interaction indicators were derived from literature and used to explore different social dynamics in the selected case. The tools used for exploring case study are online questionnaires, face to face questionnaires, interviews, and observations. These investigations were analyzed, conclusions and recommendations were set to improve social interaction.

Keywords: New urban communities, modern planning, social Interaction, Social life.

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Authors: A. Zahiri, A. A. Dehghani

Abstract:

Although many researchers have studied the flow hydraulics in compound channels, there are still many complicated problems in determination of their flow rating curves. Many different methods have been presented for these channels but extending them for all types of compound channels with different geometrical and hydraulic conditions is certainly difficult. In this study, by aid of nearly 400 laboratory and field data sets of geometry and flow rating curves from 30 different straight compound sections and using artificial neural networks (ANNs), flow discharge in compound channels was estimated. 13 dimensionless input variables including relative depth, relative roughness, relative width, aspect ratio, bed slope, main channel side slopes, flood plains side slopes and berm inclination and one output variable (flow discharge), have been used in ANNs. Comparison of ANNs model and traditional method (divided channel method-DCM) shows high accuracy of ANNs model results. The results of Sensitivity analysis showed that the relative depth with 47.6 percent contribution, is the most effective input parameter for flow discharge prediction. Relative width and relative roughness have 19.3 and 12.2 percent of importance, respectively. On the other hand, shape parameter, main channel and flood plains side slopes with 2.1, 3.8 and 3.8 percent of contribution, have the least importance.

Keywords: ANN model, compound channels, divided channel method (DCM), flow rating curve

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Ashley Hopwell, Alistair Duffy

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Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014) from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to understand the significance of factors identified using correlation. The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to the weekly and daily demand.

Keywords: Demand Forecasting, Deteriorating Products, Food Wholesalers, Principal Component Analysis and Variability Factors.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Abdel-Kareem, Hala. Abousafa, Omia S. El-Hadidi

Abstract:

The results of an experimental program conducted on seventeen simply supported concrete beams to study the effect of transverse reinforcement on the behavior of lap splice of steel reinforcement in tension zones in high strength concrete beams, are presented. The parameters included in the experimental program were the concrete compressive strength, the lap splice length, the amount of transverse reinforcement provided within the splice region, and the shape of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars. The experimental results showed that the displacement ductility increased and the mode of failure changed from splitting bond failure to flexural failure when the amount of transverse reinforcement in splice region increased, and the compressive strength increased up to 100 MPa. The presence of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars had pronounced effect on increasing the ultimate load, the ultimate deflection, and the displacement ductility. The prediction of maximum steel stresses for spliced bars using ACI 318-05 building code was compared with the experimental results. The comparison showed that the effect of transverse reinforcement around spliced bars has to be considered into the design equations for lap splice length in high strength concrete beams.

Keywords: Ductility, high strength concrete, tension lap splice, transverse reinforcement, steel stresses.

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Authors: Mehdi Moayyedian, Kazem Abhary, Romeo Marian

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This paper presents an evaluation of a plastic defect in injection molding before it occurs in the process; it is known as the short shot defect. The evaluation of different parameters which affect the possibility of short shot defect is the aim of this paper. The analysis of short shot possibility is conducted via SolidWorks Plastics and Taguchi method to determine the most significant parameters. Finite Element Method (FEM) is employed to analyze two circular flat polypropylene plates of 1 mm thickness. Filling time, part cooling time, pressure holding time, melt temperature and gate type are chosen as process and geometric parameters, respectively. A methodology is presented herein to predict the possibility of the short-shot occurrence. The analysis determined melt temperature is the most influential parameter affecting the possibility of short shot defect with a contribution of 74.25%, and filling time with a contribution of 22%, followed by gate type with a contribution of 3.69%. It was also determined the optimum level of each parameter leading to a reduction in the possibility of short shot are gate type at level 1, filling time at level 3 and melt temperature at level 3. Finally, the most significant parameters affecting the possibility of short shot were determined to be melt temperature, filling time, and gate type.

Keywords: Injection molding, plastic defects, short shot, Taguchi method.

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Authors: Mohamed Al-Badrashiny, Abdelghani Bellaachia

Abstract:

This paper presents a classifier ensemble approach for predicting the survivability of the breast cancer patients using the latest database version of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The system consists of two main components; features selection and classifier ensemble components. The features selection component divides the features in SEER database into four groups. After that it tries to find the most important features among the four groups that maximizes the weighted average F-score of a certain classification algorithm. The ensemble component uses three different classifiers, each of which models different set of features from SEER through the features selection module. On top of them, another classifier is used to give the final decision based on the output decisions and confidence scores from each of the underlying classifiers. Different classification algorithms have been examined; the best setup found is by using the decision tree, Bayesian network, and Na¨ıve Bayes algorithms for the underlying classifiers and Na¨ıve Bayes for the classifier ensemble step. The system outperforms all published systems to date when evaluated against the exact same data of SEER (period of 1973-2002). It gives 87.39% weighted average F-score compared to 85.82% and 81.34% of the other published systems. By increasing the data size to cover the whole database (period of 1973-2014), the overall weighted average F-score jumps to 92.4% on the held out unseen test set.

Keywords: Classifier ensemble, breast cancer survivability, data mining, SEER.

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Authors: H. Naghawi, M. Abu Shattal, W. Idewu

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Side friction factors can be defined as all activities taking place at the side of the road and within the traffic stream, which would negatively affect the traffic stream performance. If the effect of these factors is adequately addressed and managed, traffic stream performance and capacity could be improved. The main objective of this paper is to identify and assess the impact of different side friction factors on traffic stream performance of a hypothesized urban arterial road. Hypothetical data were assumed mainly because there is no road operating under ideal conditions, with zero side friction, in the developing countries. This is important for the creation of the base model which is important for comparison purposes. For this purpose, three essential steps were employed. Step one, a hypothetical base model was developed under ideal traffic and geometric conditions. Step two, 18 hypothetical alternative scenarios were developed including side friction factors such as on-road parking, pedestrian movement, and the presence of trucks in the traffic stream. These scenarios were evaluated for one, two, and three lane configurations and under different traffic volumes ranging from low to high. Step three, the impact of side friction, of each scenario, on speed-flow models was evaluated using AIMSUN microscopic traffic simulation software. Generally, it was found that, a noticeable negative shift in the speed flow curves from the base conditions was observed for all scenarios. This indicates negative impact of the side friction factors on free flow speed and traffic stream average speed as well as on capacity.

Keywords: AIMSUN, parked vehicles, pedestrians, side friction, traffic performance, trucks.

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Authors: Amal E. Shehata, Manal E. Fareed

Abstract:

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent and far common debilitating form of arthritis which can be defined as a degenerative condition affecting synovial joint. Patients suffering from osteoarthritis often complain of dull ache pain on movement. Physical agents can fight the painful process when correctly indicated and used such as heat or cold therapy Aim. This study was carried out to: Compare the effect of cold, warm and contrast therapy on controlling knee osteoarthritis associated problems. Setting: The study was carried out in orthopedic outpatient clinics of Menoufia University and teaching Hospitals, Egypt. Sample: A convenient sample of 60 adult patients with unilateral knee osteoarthritis. Tools: three tools were utilized to collect the data. Tool I : An interviewing questionnaire. It comprised of three parts covering  sociodemographic data, medical data and adverse effects of the treatment protocol. Tool II : Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) It consists of five main parts. Tool II1 : 0-10 Numeric pain rating scale. Results: reveled that the total knee symptoms score was decreased from moderate symptoms pre intervention to mild symptoms after warm and contrast method of therapy, but the contrast therapy had significant effect in reducing the knee symptoms and pain than the other symptoms. Conclusions: all of the three methods of therapy resulted in improvement in all knee symptoms and pain but the most appropriate protocol of treatment to relive symptoms and pain was contrast therapy.

Keywords: Knee Osteoarthritis, Cold, Warm and Contrast Therapy.

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Authors: T. Delval, C. Sauvage, Q. Jullien, R. Viano, T. Diallo, B. Collignan, G. Picinbono

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In the context of the international spread of COVID-19, the Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment (CSTB) has led a joint research with the French government authorities Hauts-de-Seine department, to analyse the risk in school spaces according to their configuration, ventilation system and spatial segmentation strategy. This paper describes the main results of this joint research. A multidisciplinary team involving experts in indoor air quality/ventilation, pedestrian movements and IT domains was established to develop a COVID risk analysis tool based on Building Information Model. The work started with specific analysis on two pilot schools in order to provide for the local administration specifications to minimize the spread of the virus. Different recommendations were published to optimize/validate the use of ventilation systems and the strategy of student occupancy and student flow segmentation within the building. This COVID expertise has been digitized in order to manage a quick risk analysis on the entire building that could be used by the public administration through an easy user interface implemented in a free BIM Management software. One of the most interesting results is to enable a dynamic comparison of different ventilation system scenarios and space occupation strategy inside the BIM model. This concurrent engineering approach provides users with the optimal solution according to both ventilation and pedestrian flow expertise.

Keywords: BIM, knowledge management, system expert, risk management, indoor ventilation, pedestrian movement, integrated design.

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Authors: Hsing-Kuo Pao, John Case

Abstract:

Biological sequences from different species are called or-thologs if they evolved from a sequence of a common ancestor species and they have the same biological function. Approximations of Kolmogorov complexity or entropy of biological sequences are already well known to be useful in extracting similarity information between such sequences -in the interest, for example, of ortholog detection. As is well known, the exact Kolmogorov complexity is not algorithmically computable. In prac-tice one can approximate it by computable compression methods. How-ever, such compression methods do not provide a good approximation to Kolmogorov complexity for short sequences. Herein is suggested a new ap-proach to overcome the problem that compression approximations may notwork well on short sequences. This approach is inspired by new, conditional computations of Kolmogorov entropy. A main contribution of the empir-ical work described shows the new set of entropy-based machine learning attributes provides good separation between positive (ortholog) and nega-tive (non-ortholog) data - better than with good, previously known alter-natives (which do not employ some means to handle short sequences well).Also empirically compared are the new entropy based attribute set and a number of other, more standard similarity attributes sets commonly used in genomic analysis. The various similarity attributes are evaluated by cross validation, through boosted decision tree induction C5.0, and by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The results point to the conclu-sion: the new, entropy based attribute set by itself is not the one giving the best prediction; however, it is the best attribute set for use in improving the other, standard attribute sets when conjoined with them.

Keywords: compression, decision tree, entropy, ortholog, ROC.

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Authors: K. V. Pagalthivarthi, R. J. Visintainer

Abstract:

Two-dimensional Eulerian (volume-averaged) continuity and momentum equations governing multi-size slurry flow through pump casings are solved by applying a penalty finite element formulation. The computational strategy validated for multi-phase flow through rectangular channels is adapted to the present study.   The flow fields of the carrier, mixture and each solids species, and the concentration field of each species are determined sequentially in an iterative manner. The eddy viscosity field computed using Spalart-Allmaras model for the pure carrier phase is modified for the presence of particles. Streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin formulation is used for all the momentum equations for the carrier, mixture and each solids species and the concentration field for each species. After ensuring mesh-independence of solutions, results of multi-size particulate flow simulation are presented to bring out the effect of bulk flow rate, average inlet concentration, and inlet particle size distribution. Mono-size computations using (1) the concentration-weighted mean diameter of the slurry and (2) the D50 size of the slurry are also presented for comparison with multi-size results.

Keywords: Eulerian-Eulerian model, Multi-size particulate flow, Penalty finite elements, Pump casing, Spalart-Allmaras.

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Authors: Chen Chou, Feng-Tyan Lin

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Big Data has been attracted a lot of attentions in many fields for analyzing research issues based on a large number of maternal data. Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) is one of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications in Taiwan, used to record starting point, end point, distance and travel time of vehicle on the national freeway. This study, taking advantage of ETC big data, combined with urban planning theory, attempts to explore various phenomena of inter-city transportation activities. ETC, one of government's open data, is numerous, complete and quick-update. One may recall that living area has been delimited with location, population, area and subjective consciousness. However, these factors cannot appropriately reflect what people’s movement path is in daily life. In this study, the concept of "Living Area" is replaced by "Influence Range" to show dynamic and variation with time and purposes of activities. This study uses data mining with Python and Excel, and visualizes the number of trips with GIS to explore influence range of Tainan city and the purpose of trips, and discuss living area delimited in current. It dialogues between the concepts of "Central Place Theory" and "Living Area", presents the new point of view, integrates the application of big data, urban planning and transportation. The finding will be valuable for resource allocation and land apportionment of spatial planning.

Keywords: Big Data, ITS, influence range, living area, central place theory, visualization.

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Authors: G. H. Senussi

Abstract:

The present work is concerned with the effect of turning process parameters (cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut) and distance from the center of work piece as input variables on the chip micro-hardness as response or output. Three experiments were conducted; they were used to investigate the chip micro-hardness behavior at diameter of work piece for 30[mm], 40[mm], and 50[mm]. Response surface methodology (R.S.M) is used to determine and present the cause and effect of the relationship between true mean response and input control variables influencing the response as a two or three dimensional hyper surface. R.S.M has been used for designing a three factor with five level central composite rotatable factors design in order to construct statistical models capable of accurate prediction of responses. The results obtained showed that the application of R.S.M can predict the effect of machining parameters on chip micro-hardness. The five level factorial designs can be employed easily for developing statistical models to predict chip micro-hardness by controllable machining parameters. Results obtained showed that the combined effect of cutting speed at it?s lower level, feed rate and depth of cut at their higher values, and larger work piece diameter can result increasing chi micro-hardness.

Keywords: Machining Parameters, Chip Micro-Hardness, CNCMachining, 304-Austenic Stainless Steel.

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Authors: Sepideh Samadzadehyazdi, Mohammad Javad Khalili, Sarvenaz Samadzadehyazdi, Mohammad Javad Mahdavinejad

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The term ‘Windphil Architecture’ refers to the building that facilitates natural ventilation by architectural elements. Natural ventilation uses the natural forces of wind pressure and stacks effect to direct the movement of air through buildings. Natural ventilation is increasingly being used in contemporary buildings to minimize the consumption of non-renewable energy and it is an effective way to improve indoor air quality. The main objective of this paper is to identify the strategies of using natural ventilation in Iranian modern buildings. In this regard, the research method is ‘descriptive-analytical’ that is based on comparative techniques. To simulate wind flow in the interior spaces of case studies, FLUENT software has been used. Research achievements show that it is possible to use natural ventilation to create a thermally comfortable indoor environment. The natural ventilation strategies could be classified into two groups of environmental characteristics such as public space structure, and architectural characteristics including building form and orientation, openings, central courtyards, wind catchers, roof, wall wings, semi-open spaces and the heat capacity of materials. Having investigated modern buildings of Iran, innovative elements like wind catchers and wall wings are less used than the traditional architecture. Instead, passive ventilation strategies have been more considered in the building design as for the roof structure and openings.

Keywords: Natural ventilation strategies, wind catchers, wind flow, Iranian modern buildings.

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Authors: Ranojoy Dutta, Adam Barker

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Multifamily residential buildings are increasingly being built with large glazed areas to provide tenants with greater daylight and outdoor views. However, traditional double-glazed window assemblies can lead to significant thermal discomfort from high radiant temperatures as well as increased cooling energy use to address solar gains. Dynamic glazing provides an effective solution by actively controlling solar transmission to maintain indoor thermal comfort, without compromising the visual connection to outdoors. This study uses thermal simulations across three Canadian cities (Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal) to verify if dynamic glazing along with operable windows and ceiling fans can maintain the indoor operative temperature of a prototype southwest facing high-rise apartment unit within the ASHRAE 55 adaptive comfort range for a majority of the year, without any mechanical cooling. Since this study proposes the use of natural ventilation for cooling and the typical building life cycle is 30-40 years, the typical weather files have been modified based on accepted global warming projections for increased air temperatures by 2050. Results for the prototype apartment confirm that thermal discomfort with dynamic glazing occurs only for less than 0.7% of the year. However, in the baseline scenario with low-E glass there are up to 7% annual hours of discomfort despite natural ventilation with operable windows and improved air movement with ceiling fans.

Keywords: Electrochromic, operable windows, thermal comfort, natural ventilation, adaptive comfort.

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Authors: Shang-En Yu

Abstract:

Human society, there are many uncertainties, such as economic growth rate forecast of the financial crisis, many scholars have, since the the Song Chissom two scholars in 1993 the concept of the so-called fuzzy time series (Fuzzy Time Series)different mode to deal with these problems, a previous study, however, usually does not consider the relevant variables selected and fuzzy process based solely on subjective opinions the fuzzy semantic discrete, so can not objectively reflect the characteristics of the data set, in addition to carrying outforecasts are often fuzzy rules as equally important, failed to consider the importance of each fuzzy rule. For these reasons, the variable selection (Factor Selection) through self-organizing map (Self-Organizing Map, SOM) and proposed high-end weighted multivariate fuzzy time series model based on fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy-BPN), and using the the sequential weighted average operator (Ordered Weighted Averaging operator, OWA) weighted prediction. Therefore, in order to verify the proposed method, the Taiwan stock exchange (Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation) Taiwan Weighted Stock Index (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index, TAIEX) as experimental forecast target, in order to filter the appropriate variables in the experiment Finally, included in other studies in recent years mode in conjunction with this study, the results showed that the predictive ability of this study further improve.

Keywords: Heterogeneity, residential mortgage loans, foreclosure.

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Authors: Mohamed Omar

Abstract:

Superelastic Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) is accepted when it used as connection in steel structures. The seismic behaviour of steel frames with SMA is being assessed in this study. Three eightstorey steel frames with different SMA systems are suggested, the first one of which is braced with diagonal bracing system, the second one is braced with nee bracing system while the last one is which the SMA is used as connection at the plastic hinge regions of beams. Nonlinear time history analyses of steel frames with SMA subjected to two different ground motion records have been performed using Seismostruct software. To evaluate the efficiency of suggested systems, the dynamic responses of the frames were compared. From the comparison results, it can be concluded that using SMA element is an effective way to improve the dynamic response of structures subjected to earthquake excitations. Implementing the SMA braces can lead to a reduction in residual roof displacement. The shape memory alloy is effective in reducing the maximum displacement at the frame top and it provides a large elastic deformation range. SMA connections are very effective in dissipating energy and reducing the total input energy of the whole frame under severe seismic ground motion. Using of the SMA connection system is more effective in controlling the reaction forces at the base frame than other bracing systems. Using SMA as bracing is more effective in reducing the displacements. The efficiency of SMA is dependant on the input wave motions and the construction system as well.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, seismic response, shapesmemory alloy, steel frame, superelasticity

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Authors: Hee-Chang Lim

Abstract:

The study aims to understand the surface pressure distribution around the bodies such as the suction pressure in the leading edge on the top and side-face when the aspect ratio of bodies and the wind direction are changed, respectively. We carried out the wind tunnel measurement and numerical simulation around a series of rectangular bodies (40^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×80^w×80^h, 160^d×80^w×80^h, 80^d×40^w×80^h and 80^d×160^w×80^h in mm³) placed in a deep turbulent boundary layer. Based on a modern numerical platform, the Navier-Stokes equation with the typical 2-equation (k-ε model) and the DES (Detached Eddy Simulation) turbulence model has been calculated, and they are both compared with the measurement data. Regarding the turbulence model, the DES model makes a better prediction comparing with the k-ε model, especially when calculating the separated turbulent flow around a bluff body with sharp edged corner. In order to observe the effect of wind direction on the pressure variation around the cube (e.g., 80^d×80^w×80^h in mm), it rotates at 0º, 10º, 20º, 30º, and 45º, which stands for the salient wind directions in the tunnel. The result shows that the surface pressure variation is highly dependent upon the approaching wind direction, especially on the top and the side-face of the cube. In addition, the transverse width has a substantial effect on the variation of surface pressure around the bodies, while the longitudinal length has little or no influence.

Keywords: Rectangular bodies, wind direction, aspect ratio, surface pressure distribution, wind-tunnel measurement, k-ε model, DES model, CFD.

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Authors: Seema Chopra, R. Mitra, Vijay Kumar

Abstract:

A neurofuzzy approach for a given set of input-output training data is proposed in two phases. Firstly, the data set is partitioned automatically into a set of clusters. Then a fuzzy if-then rule is extracted from each cluster to form a fuzzy rule base. Secondly, a fuzzy neural network is constructed accordingly and parameters are tuned to increase the precision of the fuzzy rule base. This network is able to learn and optimize the rule base of a Sugeno like Fuzzy inference system using Hybrid learning algorithm, which combines gradient descent, and least mean square algorithm. This proposed neurofuzzy system has the advantage of determining the number of rules automatically and also reduce the number of rules, decrease computational time, learns faster and consumes less memory. The authors also investigate that how neurofuzzy techniques can be applied in the area of control theory to design a fuzzy controller for linear and nonlinear dynamic systems modelling from a set of input/output data. The simulation analysis on a wide range of processes, to identify nonlinear components on-linely in a control system and a benchmark problem involving the prediction of a chaotic time series is carried out. Furthermore, the well-known examples of linear and nonlinear systems are also simulated under the Matlab/Simulink environment. The above combination is also illustrated in modeling the relationship between automobile trips and demographic factors.

Keywords: Fuzzy control, neuro-fuzzy techniques, fuzzy subtractive clustering, extraction of rules, and optimization of membership functions.

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Authors: Marco Raciti Castelli, Alberto Castelli, Ernesto Benini

Abstract:

The construction of a civil structure inside a urban area inevitably modifies the outdoor microclimate at the building site. Wind speed, wind direction, air pollution, driving rain, radiation and daylight are some of the main physical aspects that are subjected to the major changes. The quantitative amount of these modifications depends on the shape, size and orientation of the building and on its interaction with the surrounding environment.The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine two-dimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data.Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions.The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as a guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.

Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind.

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Authors: Gülnar Bayramoğlu Barman

Abstract:

Since the industrial revolution, technological developments and increased population have caused environmental damages. To protect the nature and architectural environment, firstly, green architecture, ecological architecture and then sustainability occurred. This term has been proposed not to be a new term but a response to environmental disturbances caused by human activities and it is re-conceptualization of architecture. Sustainable architecture or sustainability is lot more extensive than ecological and green architecture. It contains the imbalance between environmental problems that is natural environment and consumption that occurred all around the world. An important part of sustainability debate focused on urban planning and design for more sustainable forms and patterns. In particular, it is discussed that planning and design of urban areas have a major effect on transport and therefore can help reduce car usage, emissions, global warming and climate change. There are many planning and design approaches and movement that introduce certain criteria and strategies to prevent car dependency and encourage people to use public transportation and walking. However, when review the literature, it is seen that planning movements, such as New Urbanism and Transit Oriented Development originated and were implemented mostly in West European and North American Cities. The purpose of this study is to find out whether all those criteria, principles and strategies are also relevant planning approaches for more non-western cities like Baku, which has a very different planning background and therefore possibly different urban form and transport issues. In order to answer the abovementioned question, planning and design approaches in the literature and these recent planning movements were studied and a check list was formed which indicate planning and design approaches that can help attain a more sustainable transport outcome. The checklist was then applied to the case of Baku.

Keywords: Sustainability, Transport, Urban Design.

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Authors: Nuri Yucel, Muhammed Ilter Berberoglu, Salih Karaaslan, Nureddin Dinler

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate fire behaviors, experimentally and numerically, in a scaled version of an underground station. The effect of ventilation velocity on the fire is examined. Fire experiments are simulated by burning 10 ml isopropyl alcohol fuel in a fire pool with dimensions 5cm x 10cm x 4 mm at the center of 1/100 scaled underground station model. A commercial CFD program FLUENT was used in numerical simulations. For air flow simulations, k-ω SST turbulence model and for combustion simulation, non-premixed combustion model are used. This study showed that, the ventilation velocity is increased from 1 m/s to 3 m/s the maximum temperature in the station is found to be less for ventilation velocity of 1 m/s. The reason for these experimental result lies on the relative dominance of oxygen supply effect on cooling effect. Without piston effect, maximum temperature occurs above the fuel pool. However, when the ventilation velocity increased the flame was tilted in the direction of ventilation and the location of maximum temperature moves along the flow direction. The velocities measured experimentally in the station at different locations are well matched by the CFD simulation results. The prediction of general flow pattern is satisfactory with the smoke visualization tests. The backlayering in velocity is well predicted by CFD simulation. However, all over the station, the CFD simulations predicted higher temperatures compared to experimental measurements.

Keywords: Fire, underground station, flame propagation, CFDsimulation, k-ω SST turbulence model, non-premixed combustionmodel.

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Authors: Abdelkarim M. Ertiame, D. W. Yu, D. L. Yu, J. B. Gomm

Abstract:

In this paper, a robust fault detection and isolation (FDI) scheme is developed to monitor a multivariable nonlinear chemical process called the Chylla-Haase polymerization reactor, when it is under the cascade PI control. The scheme employs a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) in an independent mode to model the process dynamics, and using the weighted sum-squared prediction error as the residual. The Recursive Orthogonal Least Squares algorithm (ROLS) is employed to train the model to overcome the training difficulty of the independent mode of the network. Then, another RBFNN is used as a fault classifier to isolate faults from different features involved in the residual vector. Several actuator and sensor faults are simulated in a nonlinear simulation of the reactor in Simulink. The scheme is used to detect and isolate the faults on-line. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the scheme even the process is subjected to disturbances and uncertainties including significant changes in the monomer feed rate, fouling factor, impurity factor, ambient temperature, and measurement noise. The simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Robust fault detection, cascade control, independent RBF model, RBF neural networks, Chylla-Haase reactor, FDI under closed-loop control.

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Authors: Salem Alsanusi, Loubna Bentaher

Abstract:

Response Surface Methods (RSM) provide statistically validated predictive models that can then be manipulated for finding optimal process configurations. Variation transmitted to responses from poorly controlled process factors can be accounted for by the mathematical technique of propagation of error (POE), which facilitates ‘finding the flats’ on the surfaces generated by RSM. The dual response approach to RSM captures the standard deviation of the output as well as the average. It accounts for unknown sources of variation. Dual response plus propagation of error (POE) provides a more useful model of overall response variation. In our case, we implemented this technique in predicting compressive strength of concrete of 28 days in age. Since 28 days is quite time consuming, while it is important to ensure the quality control process. This paper investigates the potential of using design of experiments (DOE-RSM) to predict the compressive strength of concrete at 28th day. Data used for this study was carried out from experiment schemes at university of Benghazi, civil engineering department. A total of 114 sets of data were implemented. ACI mix design method was utilized for the mix design. No admixtures were used, only the main concrete mix constituents such as cement, coarseaggregate, fine aggregate and water were utilized in all mixes. Different mix proportions of the ingredients and different water cement ratio were used. The proposed mathematical models are capable of predicting the required concrete compressive strength of concrete from early ages.

Keywords: Mix proportioning, response surface methodology, compressive strength, optimal design.

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Authors: F. Rezaie Moghaddam, T. Rezaie Moghaddam, M. Pasbani Khiavi, M. Ali Ghorbani

Abstract:

Identifying and classifying intersections according to severity is very important for implementation of safety related counter measures and effective models are needed to compare and assess the severity. Highway safety organizations have considered intersection safety among their priorities. In spite of significant advances in highways safety, the large numbers of crashes with high severities still occur in the highways. Investigation of influential factors on crashes enables engineers to carry out calculations in order to reduce crash severity. Previous studies lacked a model capable of simultaneous illustration of the influence of human factors, road, vehicle, weather conditions and traffic features including traffic volume and flow speed on the crash severity. Thus, this paper is aimed at developing the models to illustrate the simultaneous influence of these variables on the crash severity in urban highways. The models represented in this study have been developed using binary Logit Models. SPSS software has been used to calibrate the models. It must be mentioned that backward regression method in SPSS was used to identify the significant variables in the model. Consider to obtained results it can be concluded that the main factor in increasing of crash severity in urban highways are driver age, movement with reverse gear, technical defect of the vehicle, vehicle collision with motorcycle and bicycle, bridge, frontal impact collisions, frontal-lateral collisions and multi-vehicle crashes in urban highways which always increase the crash severity in urban highways.

Keywords: Backward regression, crash severity, speed, urbanhighways.

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