Search results for: decision uncertainty distance (DUD)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2584

Search results for: decision uncertainty distance (DUD)

1384 Improving Order Quantity Model with Emergency Safety Stock (ESS)

Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

Abstract:

This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data. 

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.

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1383 Spectral Analysis of Speech: A New Technique

Authors: Neeta Awasthy, J.P.Saini, D.S.Chauhan

Abstract:

ICA which is generally used for blind source separation problem has been tested for feature extraction in Speech recognition system to replace the phoneme based approach of MFCC. Applying the Cepstral coefficients generated to ICA as preprocessing has developed a new signal processing approach. This gives much better results against MFCC and ICA separately, both for word and speaker recognition. The mixing matrix A is different before and after MFCC as expected. As Mel is a nonlinear scale. However, cepstrals generated from Linear Predictive Coefficient being independent prove to be the right candidate for ICA. Matlab is the tool used for all comparisons. The database used is samples of ISOLET.

Keywords: Cepstral Coefficient, Distance measures, Independent Component Analysis, Linear Predictive Coefficients.

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1382 The Influence of Beta Shape Parameters in Project Planning

Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: Beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution.

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1381 Civic E-Participation in Central and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Izabela Kapsa

Abstract:

Civic participation is an important aspect of democracy. The contemporary model of democracy is based on citizens' participation in political decision-making (deliberative democracy, participatory democracy). This participation takes many forms of activities like display of slogans and symbols, voting, social consultations, political demonstrations, membership in political parties or organizing civil disobedience. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 are characterized by great social, economic and political diversity. Civil society is also part of the process of democratization. Civil society, funded by the rule of law, civil rights, such as freedom of speech and association and private ownership, was to play a central role in the development of liberal democracy. Among the many interpretations of concepts, defining the concept of contemporary democracy, one can assume that the terms civil society and democracy, although different in meaning, nowadays overlap. In the post-communist countries, the process of shaping and maturing societies took place in the context of a struggle with a state governed by undemocratic power. State fraud or repudiation of the institution is a representative state, which in the past was the only way to manifest and defend its identity, but after the breakthrough became one of the main obstacles to the development of civil society. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are many obstacles to the development of civil society, for example, the elimination of economic poverty, the implementation of educational campaigns, consciousness-related obstacles, the formation of social capital and the deficit of social activity. Obviously, civil society does not only entail an electoral turnout but a broader participation in the decision-making process, which is impossible without direct and participative democratic institutions. This article considers such broad forms of civic participation and their characteristics in Central and Eastern Europe. The paper is attempts to analyze the functioning of electronic forms of civic participation in Central and Eastern European states. This is not accompanied by a referendum or a referendum initiative, and other forms of political participation, such as public consultations, participative budgets, or e-Government. However, this paper will broadly present electronic administration tools, the application of which results from both legal regulations and increasingly common practice in state and city management. In the comparative analysis, the experiences of post-communist bloc countries will be summed up to indicate the challenges and possible goals for further development of this form of citizen participation in the political process. The author argues that for to function efficiently and effectively, states need to involve their citizens in the political decision-making process, especially with the use of electronic tools.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, e-participation, e-government, post-communism.

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1380 Heat Transfer from Two Cam Shaped Cylinders in Tandem Arrangement

Authors: Arash Mir Abdolah Lavasani, Hamidreza Bayat

Abstract:

Heat transfer from two cam shape cylinder in tandem arrangement had been studied numerically. The distance between the centers of cylinders (L) is allowed to vary to change the longitudinal pitch ratio (L/Deq). The equivalent diameter of the cylinder (Deq) is 27.6 mm and longitudinal pitch ratio varies in range 2<L/Deq<6. The Reynolds number based on equivalent circular cylinder are within 50< Reeq <300. Results show that Nusselt number of second cylinder increases about 5 to 33 times when longitudinal pitch ratio increases from 2 to 6.

Keywords: Cam Shaped, tandem Cylinders, Numerical, Heat Transfer.

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1379 Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage: A Recipe for Success

Authors: Mohsen Ebrahimi

Abstract:

In this paper, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is introduced and its advantages over ordinary steam injection is demonstrated. A simple simulation model is built and three scenarios of natural production, ordinary steam injection, and SAGD are compared in terms of their cumulative oil production and cumulative oil steam ratio. The results show that SAGD can significantly enhance oil production in quite a short period of time. However, since the distance between injection and production wells is short, the oil to steam ratio decreases gradually through time.

Keywords: Thermal recovery, Steam injection, SAGD, Enhanced oil recovery

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1378 Packing and Covering Radii of Linear Error-Block Codes

Authors: Rabiˆı DARITI, El Mamoun SOUIDI

Abstract:

Linear error-block codes are a natural generalization of linear error correcting codes. The purpose of this paper is to generalize some results on the packing and the covering radii to the error-block case. We study their properties when a code undergoes some specific modifications and combinations with another code. We give a few bounds on the packing and the covering radii of these codes.

Keywords: Linear error-block codes, π-distance, Correction capacity, Packing radius, Covering radius.

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1377 What Creative Industries Have to Offer to Business? Creative Partnerships and Mutual Benefits

Authors: A. Smagina, A. Lindemanis

Abstract:

In the time of globalisation, growing uncertainty, ambiguity and change, traditional way of doing business are no longer sufficient and it is important to consider non-conventional methods and approaches to release creativity and facilitate innovation and growth. Thus, creative industries, as a natural source of creativity and innovation, draw particular attention. This paper explores feasibility of building creative partnerships between creative industries and business and brings attention to mutual benefits derived from such partnerships. Design/approach - This paper is a theoretical exploration of projects, practices and research findings addressing collaboration between creative industries and business. Thus, it concerns creative industries, arts, business and its representatives in order to define requirements for creative partnerships to work and succeed. Findings – Current practices in engaging into arts-business partnerships are still very few, although most of creative partnerships proved to be highly valuable and mutually beneficial. Certain conditions shall be provided in order to benefit from arts-business creative synergy. Originality/value- By integrating different sources of literature, this article provides a base for conducting empirical research in several dimensions within arts-business partnerships.

Keywords: Arts, artists, business, creative industries, partnership

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1376 WDM-Based Storage Area Network (SAN) for Disaster Recovery Operations

Authors: Sandeep P. Abhang, Girish V. Chowdhay

Abstract:

This paper proposes a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) technology based Storage Area Network (SAN) for all type of Disaster recovery operation. It considers recovery when all paths failure in the network as well as the main SAN site failure also the all backup sites failure by the effect of natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and floods, power outage, and terrorist attacks, as initially SAN were designed to work within distance limited environments[2]. Paper also presents a NEW PATH algorithm when path failure occurs. The simulation result and analysis is presented for the proposed architecture with performance consideration.

Keywords: SAN, WDM, FC, Ring, IP, network load, iSCSI, miles, disaster.

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1375 Predictive Model of Sensor Readings for a Mobile Robot

Authors: Krzysztof Fujarewicz

Abstract:

This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.

Keywords: Mobile robot, sensors, prediction, anticipation.

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1374 Performance Analysis of Round Trip Delay Time in Practical Wireless Network for Telemanagement

Authors: El Miloud Ar Reyouchi, Kamal Ghoumid, Koutaiba Ameziane, Otman El Mrabet, Slimane Mekaoui

Abstract:

In this paper we focus on the Round Trip Delay (RTD) time measurement technique which is an easy way to obtain the operating condition information in wireless network (WN). RTD measurement is affected by various parameters of wireless network. We illustrate how these RTD parameters vary (in a telemanagement application) versus distance, baud rates, number of hops, between nodes, using radio modem & router unit as a means of transmission and wireless routing.

Keywords: Wireless Network, Round Trip Delay, Radio modem, Router.

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1373 Churn Prediction: Does Technology Matter?

Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.

Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.

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1372 Effect of Load Ratio on Probability Distribution of Fatigue Crack Propagation Life in Magnesium Alloys

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to find the effect of load ratio on probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack size and to confirm the good probability distribution in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: Load ratio, fatigue crack propagation life, Magnesium alloys, probability distribution.

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1371 Survey on Awareness, Knowledge and Practices: Managing Osteoporosis among Practitioners in a Tertiary Hospital, Malaysia

Authors: P. H. Tee, S. M. Zamri, K. M. Kasim, S. K. Tiew

Abstract:

This study evaluates the management of osteoporosis in a tertiary care government hospital in Malaysia. As the number of admitted patients having osteoporotic fractures is on the rise, osteoporotic medications are an increasing financial burden to government hospitals because they account for half of the orthopedic budget and expenditure. Comprehensive knowledge among practitioners is important to detect early and avoid this preventable disease and its serious complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, and practices in managing osteoporosis among practitioners in Hospital Tengku Ampuan Rahimah (HTAR), Klang. A questionnaire from an overseas study in managing osteoporosis among primary care physicians is adapted to Malaysia’s Clinical Practice Guideline of Osteoporosis 2012 (revised 2015) and international guidelines were distributed to all orthopedic practitioners in HTAR Klang (including surgeons, orthopedic medical officers), endocrinologists, rheumatologists and geriatricians. The participants were evaluated on their expertise in the diagnosis, prevention, treatment decision and medications for osteoporosis. Collected data were analyzed for all descriptive and statistical analyses as appropriate. All 45 participants responded to the questionnaire. Participants scored highest on expertise in prevention, followed by diagnosis, treatment decision and lastly, medication. Most practitioners stated that own-initiated continuing professional education from articles and books was the most effective way to update their knowledge, followed by attendance in conferences on osteoporosis. This study confirms the importance of comprehensive training and education regarding osteoporosis among tertiary care physicians and surgeons, predominantly in pharmacotherapy, to deliver wholesome care for osteoporotic patients.

Keywords: Awareness, knowledge, osteoporosis, practices.

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1370 Airliner-UAV Flight Formation in Climb Regime

Authors: Pavel Zikmund, Robert Popela

Abstract:

Extreme formation is a theoretical concept of selfsustain flight when a big airliner is followed by a small UAV glider flying in the airliner wake vortex. The paper presents results of a climb analysis with the goal to lift the gliding UAV to airliners cruise altitude. Wake vortex models, the UAV drag polar and basic parameters and airliner’s climb profile are introduced at first. Afterwards, flight performance of the UAV in a wake vortex is evaluated by analytical methods. Time history of optimal distance between an airliner and the UAV during a climb is determined. The results are encouraging. Therefore available UAV drag margin for electricity generation is figured out for different vortex models.

Keywords: Flight in formation, self-sustained flight, UAV, wake vortex.

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1369 Wear Regimes of Al-Cu-Mg Matrix Composites

Authors: R. N. Rao, S. L. Tulasi Devi

Abstract:

Tribological behavior and wear regimes of ascast and heattreted Al-Cu-Mg matrix composites containing SiC particles were studied using a pin-on-disc wear testing apparatus against an EN32 steel counterface giving emphasis on wear rate as a function of applied pressures (0.2, 0.6, 1.0 and 1.4 MPa) at different sliding distances (1000, 2000, 3000, 4000 and 5000 meters) and at a fixed sliding speed of 3.35m/s. The results showed that the composite exhibited lower wear rate than that of the matrix alloy and the wear rate of the composites is noted to be invariant to the sliding distance and is reducing by heat treatment. Wear regimes such as low, mild and severe wear were observed as per the Archard-s wear calculations. It is very interesting to note that the mild wear is almost constant in all the wear regimes.

Keywords: Aluminum, matrix, regimes, wear.

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1368 Investigation of a Wearable Textile Monopole Antenna on Specific Absorption Rate at 2.45 GHz

Authors: Hasliza A. Rahim, Fareq Malek, Ismahayati Adam, Ahmad Sahadah, Nur B. M. Hashim, Nur A. M. Affendi, Azuwa Ali, Norshafinash Saudin, Latifah Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper discusses the investigation of a wearable textile monopole antenna on specific absorption rate (SAR) for bodycentric wireless communication applications at 2.45 GHz. The antenna is characterized on a realistic 8 x 8 x 8 mm3 resolution truncated Hugo body model in CST Microwave Studio software. The result exhibited that the simulated SAR values were reduced significantly by 83.5% as the position of textile monopole was varying between 0 mm and 15 mm away from the human upper arm. A power absorption reduction of 52.2% was also noticed as the distance of textile monopole increased.

Keywords: Monopole antenna, specific absorption rate, textile antenna.

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1367 Studies on Ti/Al Sheet Joint Using Laser Beam Welding – A Review

Authors: K. Kalaiselvan, A. Elango, N. M. Nagarajan, N. Mathiyazagan

Abstract:

Laser beam welding has wide acceptability due to least welding distortion, low labour costs and convenient operation. However, laser welding for dissimilar titanium and aluminium alloys is a new area which is having wider applications in aerospace, aircraft, automotive, electronics and other industries. The present study is concerned with welding parameters namely laser power, welding speed, focusing distance and type of shielding gas and thereby evaluate welding performance of titanium and aluminium alloy thin sheets. This paper reviews the basic concepts associated with different parameters of Ti/Al sheet joint using Laser beam welding.

Keywords: Laser Beam Welding (LBW), Dissimilar joining Titanium and Aluminum sheets.

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1366 All-Pairs Shortest-Paths Problem for Unweighted Graphs in O(n2 log n) Time

Authors: Udaya Kumar Reddy K. R, K. Viswanathan Iyer

Abstract:

Given a simple connected unweighted undirected graph G = (V (G), E(G)) with |V (G)| = n and |E(G)| = m, we present a new algorithm for the all-pairs shortest-path (APSP) problem. The running time of our algorithm is in O(n2 log n). This bound is an improvement over previous best known O(n2.376) time bound of Raimund Seidel (1995) for general graphs. The algorithm presented does not rely on fast matrix multiplication. Our algorithm with slight modifications, enables us to compute the APSP problem for unweighted directed graph in time O(n2 log n), improving a previous best known O(n2.575) time bound of Uri Zwick (2002).

Keywords: Distance in graphs, Dynamic programming, Graphalgorithms, Shortest paths.

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1365 Distributed Architecture of an Autonomous Four Rotor Mini-Rotorcraft based on Multi-Agent System

Authors: H. Ifassiouen, H. Medromi, N. E. Radhy

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the recently implemented approach allowing dynamics systems to plan its actions, taking into account the environment perception changes, and to control their execution when uncertainty and incomplete knowledge are the major characteristics of the situated environment [1],[2],[3],[4]. The control distributed architecture has three modules and the approach is related to hierarchical planning: the plan produced by the planner is further refined at the control layer that in turn supervises its execution by a functional level. We propose a new intelligent distributed architecture constituted by: Multi-Agent subsystem of the sensor, of the interpretation and representation of environment [9], of the dynamic localization and of the action. We tested this distributed architecture with dynamic system in the known environment. The autonomous for Rotor Mini Rotorcraft task is described by the primitive actions. The distributed controlbased on multi-agent system is in charge of achieving each task in the best possible way taking into account the context and sensory feedback.

Keywords: Autonomous four rotors helicopter, Control system, Hierarchical planning, Intelligent Distributed Architecture.

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1364 Design, Simulation and Experimental Realization of Nonlinear Controller for GSC of DFIG System

Authors: R.K. Behera, S.Behera

Abstract:

In a wind power generator using doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), the three-phase pulse width modulation (PWM) voltage source converter (VSC) is used as grid side converter (GSC) and rotor side converter (RSC). The standard linear control laws proposed for GSC provides not only instablity against comparatively large-signal disturbances, but also the problem of stability due to uncertainty of load and variations in parameters. In this paper, a nonlinear controller is designed for grid side converter (GSC) of a DFIG for wind power application. The nonlinear controller is designed based on the input-output feedback linearization control method. The resulting closed-loop system ensures a sufficient stability region, make robust to variations in circuit parameters and also exhibits good transient response. Computer simulations and experimental results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Doubly fed Induction Generator, grid side converter, machine side converter, dc link, feedback linearization.

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1363 An Accurate Method for Phylogeny Tree Reconstruction Based on a Modified Wild Dog Algorithm

Authors: Essam Al Daoud

Abstract:

This study solves a phylogeny problem by using modified wild dog pack optimization. The least squares error is considered as a cost function that needs to be minimized. Therefore, in each iteration, new distance matrices based on the constructed trees are calculated and used to select the alpha dog. To test the suggested algorithm, ten homologous genes are selected and collected from National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) databanks (i.e., 16S, 18S, 28S, Cox 1, ITS1, ITS2, ETS, ATPB, Hsp90, and STN). The data are divided into three categories: 50 taxa, 100 taxa and 500 taxa. The empirical results show that the proposed algorithm is more reliable and accurate than other implemented methods.

Keywords: Least squares, neighbor joining, phylogenetic tree, wild dogpack.

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1362 Benefits from a SMED Application in a Punching Machine

Authors: Eric Costa, Sara Bragança, Rui Sousa, Anabela Alves

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of the Single-Minute Exchange of Die (SMED) methodology to a turret punching machine in an elevators company, in Portugal. The work was developed during five months, in the ambit of a master thesis in Industrial Engineering and Management. The Lean Production tool SMED was applied to reduce setup times in order to improve the production flexibility of the machine. The main results obtained were a reduction of 64% in setup time (from 15.1 to 5.4min), 50% in work-in-process amount (from 12.8 to 6.4 days) and 99% in the distance traveled by the operator during the internal period (from 136.7 to 1.7m). These improvements correspond to gains of about €7,315.38 per year.

Keywords: Lean production, setup process, SMED.

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1361 Stability Analysis of a Class of Nonlinear Systems Using Discrete Variable Structures and Sliding Mode Control

Authors: Vivekanandan C., Prabhakar .R., Prema D.

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of discrete-time variable structure control with sliding mode based on the 'reaching law' method for robust control of a 'simple inverted pendulum on moving cart' - a standard nonlinear benchmark system. The controllers designed using the above techniques are completely insensitive to parametric uncertainty and external disturbance. The controller design is carried out using pole placement technique to find state feedback gain matrix , which decides the dynamic behavior of the system during sliding mode. This is followed by feedback gain realization using the control law which is synthesized from 'Gao-s reaching law'. The model of a single inverted pendulum and the discrete variable structure control controller are developed, simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK and results are presented. The response of this simulation is compared with that of the discrete linear quadratic regulator (DLQR) and the advantages of sliding mode controller over DLQR are also presented

Keywords: Inverted pendulum, Variable Structure, Sliding mode control, Discrete-time systems, Nonlinear systems.

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1360 Could Thermal Oceanic Hotspot Increase Climate Changes Activities in North Tropical Atlantic: Example of the 2005 Caribbean Coral Bleaching Hotspot and Hurricane Katrina Interaction

Authors: J- L. Siméon

Abstract:

This paper reviews recent studies and particularly the effects of Climate Change in the North Tropical Atlantic by studying atmospheric conditions that prevailed in 2005 ; Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Hurricane Katrina. In the aim to better understand and estimate the impact of the physical phenomenon, i.e. Thermal Oceanic HotSpot (TOHS), isotopic studies of δ18O and δ13C on marine animals from Guadeloupe (French Caribbean Island) were carried out. Recorded measures show Sea Surface Temperature (SST) up to 35°C in August which is much higher than data recorded by NOAA satellites 32°C. After having reviewed the process that led to the creation of Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans in August 29, 2005, it will be shown that the climatic conditions in the Caribbean from August to October 2005 have influenced Katrina evolution. This TOHS is a combined effect of various phenomenon which represent an additional factor to estimate future climate changes.

Keywords: Climate Change, Thermal Ocean HotSpot, Isotope, Hurricane, Connection, Uncertainty, Sea, Science.

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1359 A Comparison of Transdiagnostic Components in Generalized Anxiety Disorder, Unipolar Mood Disorder and Nonclinical Population

Authors: I. Abasi, L. Fata, M. Sadeghi, S. Banihashemi, A. Mohammadee

Abstract:

Background: Dimensional and transdiagnostic approaches as a result of high comorbidity among mental disorders have captured researchers and clinicians interests for exploring the latent factors to development and maintenance of some psychological disorders. The goal of present study is comparing some of these common factors between generalized anxiety disorder and unipolar mood disorder. Methods: 27 patients with generalized anxiety disorder, 29 patients with depression disorder were recruited by using SCID-I and 69 non-clinical populations were selected by using GHQ cut off point. MANCOVA was used for analyzing data. Results: The results show that worry, rumination, intolerance of uncertainty, maladaptive metacognitive beliefs, and experiential avoidance were all significantly different between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. However, there weren’t any significant differences in difficulties in emotion regulation and neuroticism between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. Discussion: Results indicate that although there are some transdiagnostic and common factors in GAD and unipolar mood disorder, there may be some specific vulnerability factors for each disorder. Further study is needed for answering these questions.

Keywords: Depression, emotion regulation, generalized anxiety disorder, transdiagnostic.

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1358 Reducing Uncertainty of Monte Carlo Estimated Fatigue Damage in Offshore Wind Turbines Using FORM

Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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1357 A New Fuzzy DSS/ES for Stock Portfolio Selection using Technical and Fundamental Approaches in Parallel

Authors: H. Zarei, M. H. Fazel Zarandi, M. Karbasian

Abstract:

A Decision Support System/Expert System for stock portfolio selection presented where at first step, both technical and fundamental data used to estimate technical and fundamental return and risk (1st phase); Then, the estimated values are aggregated with the investor preferences (2nd phase) to produce convenient stock portfolio. In the 1st phase, there are two expert systems, each of which is responsible for technical or fundamental estimation. In the technical expert system, for each stock, twenty seven candidates are identified and with using rough sets-based clustering method (RC) the effective variables have been selected. Next, for each stock two fuzzy rulebases are developed with fuzzy C-Mean method and Takai-Sugeno- Kang (TSK) approach; one for return estimation and the other for risk. Thereafter, the parameters of the rule-bases are tuned with backpropagation method. In parallel, for fundamental expert systems, fuzzy rule-bases have been identified in the form of “IF-THEN" rules through brainstorming with the stock market experts and the input data have been derived from financial statements; as a result two fuzzy rule-bases have been generated for all the stocks, one for return and the other for risk. In the 2nd phase, user preferences represented by four criteria and are obtained by questionnaire. Using an expert system, four estimated values of return and risk have been aggregated with the respective values of user preference. At last, a fuzzy rule base having four rules, treats these values and produce a ranking score for each stock which will lead to a satisfactory portfolio for the user. The stocks of six manufacturing companies and the period of 2003-2006 selected for data gathering.

Keywords: Stock Portfolio Selection, Fuzzy Rule-Base ExpertSystems, Financial Decision Support Systems, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis.

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1356 Pruning Algorithm for the Minimum Rule Reduct Generation

Authors: Şahin Emrah Amrahov, Fatih Aybar, Serhat Doğan

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the rule reduct generation problem. Rule Reduct Generation (RG) and Modified Rule Generation (MRG) algorithms, that are used to solve this problem, are well-known. Alternative to these algorithms, we develop Pruning Rule Generation (PRG) algorithm. We compare the PRG algorithm with RG and MRG.

Keywords: Rough sets, Decision rules, Rule induction, Classification.

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1355 A Clock Skew Minimization Technique Considering Temperature Gradient

Authors: Se-Jin Ko, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

Abstract:

The trend of growing density on chips has increases not only the temperature in chips but also the gradient of the temperature depending on locations. In this paper, we propose the balanced skew tree generation technique for minimizing the clock skew that is affected by the temperature gradients on chips. We calculate the interconnect delay using Elmore delay equation, and find out the optimal balanced clock tree by modifying the clock trees generated through the Deferred Merge Embedding(DME) algorithm. The experimental results show that the distance variance of clock insertion points with and without considering the temperature gradient can be lowered below 54% and we confirm that the skew is remarkably decreased after applying the proposed technique.

Keywords: clock, clock-skew, temperature, thermal.

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