Search results for: statistical weather prediction

Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

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Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. Earlier we predicted the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven datasets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fault prediction, Cross project, Within project.

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Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

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Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

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The acidity (citric acid) is the one of chemical content that can be refer to the internal quality and it’s a maturity index of tomato, The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR) spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomato.

Keywords: Tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid.

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Authors: Jindrich J. Melcher, Marcela Karmazínová

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The paper presents the brief information on particular results of experimental study focused to the problems of behavior of structural plated components made of fiber-cement-based materials and used in building constructions, exposed to atmospheric physical effects given by the weather changes in the summer period. Weather changes represented namely by temperature and rain cause also the changes of the temperature and moisture of the investigated structural components. This can affect their static behavior that means stresses and deformations, which have been monitored as the main outputs of tests performed. Experimental verification is based on the simulation of the influence of temperature and rain using the defined procedure of warming and water sprinkling with respect to the corresponding weather conditions during summer period in the South Moravian region at the Czech Republic, for which the application of these structural components is mainly planned. Two types of components have been tested: (i) glass-fiber-concrete panels used for building façades and (ii) fiber-cement slabs used mainly for claddings, but also as a part of floor structures or lost shuttering, and so on.

Keywords: Atmospheric physical effect, building component, experiment, fiber-cement, glass-fiber-concrete, simulation, static behavior, test, warming, water sprinkling, weather.

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Authors: Seyed Saeed Changiz Rezaei, Babak Hossein Khalaj

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As the demand for higher capacity in a cellular environment increases, the cell size decreases. This fact makes the role of suitable handoff algorithms to reduce both number of handoffs and handoff delay more important. In this paper we show that applying the grey prediction technique for handoff leads to considerable decrease in handoff delay with using a small number of handoffs, compared with traditional hystersis based handoff algorithms.

Keywords: Cellular network, Grey prediction, Handoff.

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Authors: Ryad Zemouri, Paul Ciprian Patic

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An adaptive software reliability prediction model using evolutionary connectionist approach based on Recurrent Radial Basis Function architecture is proposed. Based on the currently available software failure time data, Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the k Gaussian nodes. The corresponding optimized neural network architecture is iteratively and dynamically reconfigured in real-time as new actual failure time data arrives. The performance of our proposed approach has been tested using sixteen real-time software failure data. Numerical results show that our proposed approach is robust across different software projects, and has a better performance with respect to next-steppredictability compared to existing neural network model for failure time prediction.

Keywords: Neural network, Prediction error, Recurrent RadialBasis Function Network, Reliability prediction.

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Authors: Miloje S. Radenkovic, Tamal Bose

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This paper presents the convergence analysis of a prediction based blind equalizer for IIR channels. Predictor parameters are estimated by using the recursive least squares algorithm. It is shown that the prediction error converges almost surely (a.s.) toward a scalar multiple of the unknown input symbol sequence. It is also proved that the convergence rate of the parameter estimation error is of the same order as that in the iterated logarithm law.

Keywords: Adaptive blind equalizer, Recursive leastsquares, Adaptive Filtering, Convergence analysis.

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Authors: Neeraj Mohan, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

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Software maintenance is extremely important activity in software development life cycle. It involves a lot of human efforts, cost and time. Software maintenance may be further subdivided into different activities such as fault prediction, fault detection, fault prevention, fault correction etc. This topic has gained substantial attention due to sophisticated and complex applications, commercial hardware, clustered architecture and artificial intelligence. In this paper we surveyed the work done in the field of software maintenance. Software fault prediction has been studied in context of fault prone modules, self healing systems, developer information, maintenance models etc. Still a lot of things like modeling and weightage of impact of different kind of faults in the various types of software systems need to be explored in the field of fault severity.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Software Maintenance, Automated Fault Prediction, and Failure Mode Analysis

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Authors: Stepan Kuchar, Martin Golasowski, Radim Vavrik, Michal Podhoranyi, Boris Sir, Jan Martinovic

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The main goal of this article is to describe the online flood monitoring and prediction system Floreon+ primarily developed for the Moravian-Silesian region in the Czech Republic and the basic process it uses for running automatic rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic simulations along with their calibration and uncertainty modeling. It takes a long time to execute such process sequentially, which is not acceptable in the online scenario, so the use of a high performance computing environment is proposed for all parts of the process to shorten their duration. Finally, a case study on the Ostravice River catchment is presented that shows actual durations and their gain from the parallel implementation.

Keywords: Flood prediction process, High performance computing, Online flood prediction system, Parallelization.

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Authors: A. Medjnoun, R. Bahar

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The disorders caused by the shrinking-swelling phenomenon are prevalent in arid and semi-arid in the presence of swelling clay. This soil has the characteristic of changing state under the effect of water solicitation (wetting and drying). A set of geotechnical parameters is necessary for the characterization of this soil type, such as state parameters, physical and chemical parameters and mechanical parameters. Some of these tests are very long and some are very expensive, hence the use or methods of predictions. The complexity of this phenomenon and the difficulty of its characterization have prompted researchers to use several identification parameters in the prediction of swelling potential. This document is an analytical and statistical study of geotechnical parameters affecting the potential of swelling clays. This work is performing on a database obtained from investigations swelling Algerian soil. The obtained observations have helped us to understand the soil swelling structure and its behavior.

Keywords: Analysis, estimated model, parameter identification, Swelling of clay.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

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One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Jian He

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Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, and coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major heart diseases. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used in the detection of heart diseases, but the traditional manual method for CHD prediction by analyzing ECG requires lots of professional knowledge for doctors. This paper presents sliding window and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to transform ECG signals into images, and then ResNet and Bi-LSTM are introduced to build the ECG feature extraction network (namely ECGNet). At last, an auxiliary system for CHD prediction was developed based on modified ResNet18 and Bi-LSTM, and the public ECG dataset of CHD from MIMIC-3 was used to train and test the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the method is 83%, and the F1-score is 83%. Compared with the available methods for CHD prediction based on ECG, such as kNN, decision tree, VGGNet, etc., this method not only improves the prediction accuracy but also could avoid the degradation phenomenon of the deep learning network.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM, CHD, coronary heart disease, ECG, electrocardiogram, ResNet, sliding window.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Sae-Rom Pak, Seung Hwan Park, Jeong Ho Cho, Daewoong An, Cheong-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Jun-Geol Baek

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It is important to predict yield in semiconductor test process in order to increase yield. In this study, yield prediction means finding out defective die, wafer or lot effectively. Semiconductor test process consists of some test steps and each test includes various test items. In other world, test data has a big and complicated characteristic. It also is disproportionably distributed as the number of data belonging to FAIL class is extremely low. For yield prediction, general data mining techniques have a limitation without any data preprocessing due to eigen properties of test data. Therefore, this study proposes an under-sampling method using support vector machine (SVM) to eliminate an imbalanced characteristic. For evaluating a performance, randomly under-sampling method is compared with the proposed method using actual semiconductor test data. As a result, sampling method using SVM is effective in generating robust model for yield prediction.

Keywords: Yield Prediction, Semiconductor Test Process, Support Vector Machine, Under Sampling

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Authors: Dawit Mengistu, Lars Lundberg, Paul Davidsson

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A major requirement for Grid application developers is ensuring performance and scalability of their applications. Predicting the performance of an application demands understanding its specific features. This paper discusses performance modeling and prediction of multi-agent based simulation (MABS) applications on the Grid. An experiment conducted using a synthetic MABS workload explains the key features to be included in the performance model. The results obtained from the experiment show that the prediction model developed for the synthetic workload can be used as a guideline to understand to estimate the performance characteristics of real world simulation applications.

Keywords: Grid computing, Performance modeling, Performance prediction, Multi-agent simulation.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

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The H.264/AVC video coding standard contains a number of advanced features. Ones of the new features introduced in this standard is the multiple intramode prediction. Its function exploits directional spatial correlation with adjacent block for intra prediction. With this new features, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standard, but computational complexity is increased significantly when brut force rate distortion optimization (RDO) algorithm is used. In this paper, we propose a new fast intra prediction mode decision method for the complexity reduction of H.264 video coding. for luma intra prediction, the proposed method consists of two step: in the first step, we make the RDO for four mode of intra 4x4 block, based the distribution of RDO cost of those modes and the idea that the fort correlation with adjacent mode, we select the best mode of intra 4x4 block. In the second step, we based the fact that the dominating direction of a smaller block is similar to that of bigger block, the candidate modes of 8x8 blocks and 16x16 macroblocks are determined. So, in case of chroma intra prediction, the variance of the chroma pixel values is much smaller than that of luma ones, since our proposed uses only the mode DC. Experimental results show that the new fast intra mode decision algorithm increases the speed of intra coding significantly with negligible loss of PSNR.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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Authors: Engin Eyceyurt, Josko Zec

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The current and future cellular mobile communication networks generate enormous amounts of data. Networks have become extremely complex with extensive space of parameters, features and counters. These networks are unmanageable with legacy methods and an enhanced design and optimization approach is necessary that is increasingly reliant on machine learning. This paper proposes that machine learning as a viable approach for uplink throughput prediction. LTE radio metric, such as Reference Signal Received Power (RSRP), Reference Signal Received Quality (RSRQ), and Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) are used to train models to estimate expected uplink throughput. The prediction accuracy with high determination coefficient of 91.2% is obtained from measurements collected with a simple smartphone application.

Keywords: Drive test, LTE, machine learning, uplink throughput prediction.

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Authors: Mohammed Al-Juhaishi, Mikael Motelica-Heino, Fabrice Muller, Audrey Guirimand-Dufour, Christian Défarge

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This study aims at improving the urban hydrological cycle of the Orléans agglomeration (France) and understanding the relationship between physical and chemical parameters of urban surface runoff and the hydrological conditions. In particular water quality parameters such as pH, conductivity, total dissolved solids, major dissolved cations and anions, and chemical and biological oxygen demands were monitored for three types of urban water discharges (wastewater treatment plant output (WWTP), storm overflow and stormwater outfall) under two hydrologic scenarios (dry and wet weather). The first results were obtained over a period of five months. Each investigated (Ormes, l’Egoutier and La Corne) outfall represents an urban runoff source that receives water from runoff roads, gutters, the irrigation of gardens and other sources of flow over the Earth’s surface that drains in its catchments and carries it to the Loire River. In wet weather conditions there is rain water runoff and an additional input from the roof gutters that have entered the stormwater system during rainfall. For the comparison the results La Chilesse is a storm overflow that was selected in our study as a potential source of waste water which is located before the (WWTP). The comparison of the physical-chemical parameters (total dissolved solids, turbidity, pH, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), concentration of major cations and anions) together with the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD) helped to characterize sources of runoff waters in the different watersheds. It also helped to highlight the infiltration of wastewater in some stormwater systems that reject directly in the Loire River. The values of the conductivity measured in the outflow of Ormes were always higher than those measured in the other two outlets. The results showed a temporal variation for the Ormes outfall of conductivity from 1465 μS cm-1 in the dry weather flow to 650 μS cm-1 in the wet weather flow and also a spatial variation in the wet weather flow from 650 μS cm-1 in the Ormes outfall to 281 μS cm-1 in L’Egouttier outfall. The ultimate BOD (BOD28) showed a significant decrease in La Corne outfall from 181 mg L-1 in the wet weather flow to 95 mg L-1 in the dry weather flow because of the nutrient load that was transported by the runoff.

Keywords: BOD, COD, the Loire River, urban hydrology, urban dry and wet weather discharges, macronutrients.

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The meteorological elements of outdoor design weather data are usually selected based on their excess frequency separately while the dependency between the elements is not well considered. It means that the simultaneous occurrence probability of these elements is smaller than the original excess frequency which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Therefore, the copula approach which can capture the dependency between multivariate data was used to model the joint distributions of the meteorological elements, like air temperature and global solar radiation. We suggest a method based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of these two elements of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions. The hourly weather data at 12 noon from 2001 to 2010 in Tokyo, Japan are used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the Gaussian copula represents the dependence of data best. According to calculating the air temperature and global solar radiation in specific simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding, the results show that both the air temperature and global solar radiation based on simultaneous occurrence probability are lower than these based on the conventional method in the same probability.

Keywords: Copula approach, Design weather database, energy conservation, HVAC.

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Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley

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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.

Keywords: Classification, classifier fusion, CNN, Deep Learning, prediction, SNR.

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Authors: Muhammad Nizam, Azah Mohamed, Majid Al-Dabbagh, Aini Hussain

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This paper presents dynamic voltage collapse prediction on an actual power system using support vector machines. Dynamic voltage collapse prediction is first determined based on the PTSI calculated from information in dynamic simulation output. Simulations were carried out on a practical 87 bus test system by considering load increase as the contingency. The data collected from the time domain simulation is then used as input to the SVM in which support vector regression is used as a predictor to determine the dynamic voltage collapse indices of the power system. To reduce training time and improve accuracy of the SVM, the Kernel function type and Kernel parameter are considered. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed SVM method, its performance is compared with the multi layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN). Studies show that the SVM gives faster and more accurate results for dynamic voltage collapse prediction compared with the MLPNN.

Keywords: Dynamic voltage collapse, prediction, artificial neural network, support vector machines

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Authors: Ali Hussian Ali AlTimemy, Fawzi M. Al Naima

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This paper presents the prediction of kidney dysfunction using different neural network (NN) approaches. Self organization Maps (SOM), Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and Multi Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) trained with Back Propagation Algorithm (BPA) are used in this study. Six hundred and sixty three sets of analytical laboratory tests have been collected from one of the private clinical laboratories in Baghdad. For each subject, Serum urea and Serum creatinin levels have been analyzed and tested by using clinical laboratory measurements. The collected urea and cretinine levels are then used as inputs to the three NN models in which the training process is done by different neural approaches. SOM which is a class of unsupervised network whereas PNN and BPNN are considered as class of supervised networks. These networks are used as a classifier to predict whether kidney is normal or it will have a dysfunction. The accuracy of prediction, sensitivity and specificity were found for each type of the proposed networks .We conclude that PNN gives faster and more accurate prediction of kidney dysfunction and it works as promising tool for predicting of routine kidney dysfunction from the clinical laboratory data.

Keywords: Kidney Dysfunction, Prediction, SOM, PNN, BPNN, Urea and Creatinine levels.

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Authors: Hanifeh Imanian, Morteza Kolahdoozan

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The purpose of this study is to present a mathematical phrase for calculating the dispersion rate of spilled oil in water column under non-breaking waves. In this regard, a multiphase numerical model is applied for which waves and oil phase were computed concurrently, and accuracy of its hydraulic calculations have been proven. More than 200 various scenarios of oil spilling in wave waters were simulated using the multiphase numerical model and its outcome were collected in a database. The recorded results were investigated to identify the major parameters affected vertical oil dispersion and finally 6 parameters were identified as main independent factors. Furthermore, some statistical tests were conducted to identify any relationship between the dependent variable (dispersed oil mass in the water column) and independent variables (water wave specifications containing height, length and wave period and spilled oil characteristics including density, viscosity and spilled oil mass). Finally, a mathematical-statistical relationship is proposed to predict dispersed oil in marine waters. To verify the proposed relationship, a laboratory example available in the literature was selected. Oil mass rate penetrated in water body computed by statistical regression was in accordance with experimental data was predicted. On this occasion, it was necessary to verify the proposed mathematical phrase. In a selected laboratory case available in the literature, mass oil rate penetrated in water body computed by suggested regression. Results showed good agreement with experimental data. The validated mathematical-statistical phrase is a useful tool for oil dispersion prediction in oil spill events in marine areas.

Keywords: Dispersion, marine environment, mathematical-statistical relationship, oil spill.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

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Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

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Authors: C. Manjula, Lilly Florence

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Software technology is developing rapidly which leads to the growth of various industries. Now-a-days, software-based applications have been adopted widely for business purposes. For any software industry, development of reliable software is becoming a challenging task because a faulty software module may be harmful for the growth of industry and business. Hence there is a need to develop techniques which can be used for early prediction of software defects. Due to complexities in manual prediction, automated software defect prediction techniques have been introduced. These techniques are based on the pattern learning from the previous software versions and finding the defects in the current version. These techniques have attracted researchers due to their significant impact on industrial growth by identifying the bugs in software. Based on this, several researches have been carried out but achieving desirable defect prediction performance is still a challenging task. To address this issue, here we present a machine learning based hybrid technique for software defect prediction. First of all, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is presented where an improved fitness function is used for better optimization of features in data sets. Later, these features are processed through Decision Tree (DT) classification model. Finally, an experimental study is presented where results from the proposed GA-DT based hybrid approach is compared with those from the DT classification technique. The results show that the proposed hybrid approach achieves better classification accuracy.

Keywords: Decision tree, genetic algorithm, machine learning, software defect prediction.

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Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

Abstract:

Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to prevent deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network. 

Keywords: Accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, K-mean, road safety.

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Authors: Bharathi P. T, P. Subashini

Abstract:

Ice cover County has a significant impact on rivers as it affects with the ice melting capacity which results in flooding, restrict navigation, modify the ecosystem and microclimate. River ices are made up of different ice types with varying ice thickness, so surveillance of river ice plays an important role. River ice types are captured using infrared imaging camera which captures the images even during the night times. In this paper the river ice infrared texture images are analysed using first-order statistical methods and secondorder statistical methods. The second order statistical methods considered are spatial gray level dependence method, gray level run length method and gray level difference method. The performance of the feature extraction methods are evaluated by using Probabilistic Neural Network classifier and it is found that the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method yields low accuracy. So the features extracted from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method are combined and it is observed that the result of these combined features (First order statistical method + gray level run length method) provides higher accuracy when compared with the features from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method alone.

Keywords: Gray Level Difference Method, Gray Level Run Length Method, Kurtosis, Probabilistic Neural Network, Skewness, Spatial Gray Level Dependence Method.

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