Search results for: Empirical techniques.

Authors: Afaf Alharbi, Qianni Zhang

Abstract:

The identification of malignant tissue in histopathological slides holds significant importance in both clinical settings and pathology research. This paper presents a methodology aimed at automatically categorizing cancerous tissue through the utilization of a multiple instance learning framework. This framework is specifically developed to acquire knowledge of the Bernoulli distribution of the bag label probability by employing neural networks. Furthermore, we put forward a neural network-based permutation-invariant aggregation operator, equivalent to attention mechanisms, which is applied to the multi-instance learning network. Through empirical evaluation on an openly available colon cancer histopathology dataset, we provide evidence that our approach surpasses various conventional deep learning methods.

Keywords: Attention Multiple Instance Learning, Multiple Instance Learning, transfer learning, histopathological slides, cancer tissue classification.

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Authors: Rahmatollah Hooshmand, Mahdi Banejad

Abstract:

One of the problems in fault diagnosis of transformer based on dissolved gas, is lack of matching the result of fault diagnosis of different standards with the real world. In this paper, the result of the different standards is analyzed using fuzzy and the result is compared with the empirical test. The comparison between the suggested method and existing methods indicate the capability of the suggested method in on-line fault diagnosis of the transformers. In addition, in some cases the existing standards are not able to diagnose the fault. In theses cases, the presented method has the potential of diagnosing the fault. The information of three transformers is used to the show the capability of the suggested method in diagnosing the fault. The results validate the capability of the presented method in fault diagnosis of the transformer.

Keywords: Fault Diagnosis of Transformer, Dissolved Gas, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

Abstract:

The purposes of this research were to develop and to monitor the antecedent factors which directly affected the success rate of new product development. This was a case study of the leather industry in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 350 leather factories were used as a sample group. The findings revealed that the new product development model was harmonized with the empirical data at the acceptable level, the statistic values are: χ2=6.45, df= 7, p-value = .48856; RMSEA = .000; RMR = .0029; AGFI = .98; GFI = 1.00. The independent variable that directly influenced the dependent variable at the highest level was marketing outcome which had a influence coefficient at 0.32 and the independent variables that indirectly influenced the dependent variables at the highest level was a clear organization policy which had a influence coefficient at 0.17, whereas, all independent variables can predict the model at 48 percent.

Keywords: Antecedent, New Product Development, Leather Industry.

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Authors: Chengxuan Geng, Haitao E, Yijie Jiang

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According to the theory of capital structure, this paper uses principal component analysis and linear regression analysis to study the relationship between the debt characteristics of the private listed companies in Jiangsu Province and their business performance. The results show that the average debt ratio of the 29 private listed companies selected from the sample is lower. And it is found that for the sample whose debt ratio is lower than 80%, its debt ratio is negatively related to corporate performance, while for the sample whose debt ratio is beyond 80%, the relationship of debt financing and enterprise performance shows the different trends. The conclusions reflect the drawbacks may exist that the debt ratio is relatively low and having not take full advantage of debt governance effect of the private listed companies in Jiangsu Province.

Keywords: private listed companies, debt financing, business performance

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

Abstract:

In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Noor A. Auzairy, Rubi Ahmad, Catherine S.F. Ho, Ros Z. Z. Sapian

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This paper is to explore the relationship and the level of stock market integration of the Asian countries, primarily concentrating on Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea, with the world from January 1997 to December 2009. The degree of short-run and long-run stock market integration of those Asian countries are analyzed in order to determine the significance of series of regional and world financial crises, liberalization policies and other financial reforms in influencing the level of stock market integration. To test for cointegration, this paper applies coefficient correlation, univariate regression analyses, cointegration tests, and vector autoregressive models (VAR) by using the four Asian stock markets main indices and the MSCI World index. The empirical findings from this work reveal that there is no long-run stock market integration for the four countries and the world market. However, there is short run integration.

Keywords: Asia, integration, relationship, stock market.

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Authors: T. Gómez-Navarro, M. García-Melón, D. Díaz-Martín, S. Acuna-Dutra,

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In this paper a new approach to prioritize urban planning projects in an efficient and reliable way is presented. It is based on environmental pressure indices and multicriteria decision methods. The paper introduces a rigorous method with acceptable complexity of rank ordering urban development proposals according to their environmental pressure. The technique combines the use of Environmental Pressure Indicators, the aggregation of indicators in an Environmental Pressure Index by means of the Analytic Network Process method and interpreting the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process. The ANP method allows the aggregation of the experts- judgments on each of the indicators into one Environmental Pressure Index. In addition, ANP is based on utility ratio functions which are the most appropriate for the analysis of uncertain data, like experts- estimations. Finally, unlike the other multicriteria techniques, ANP allows the decision problem to be modelled using the relationships among dependent criteria. The method has been applied to the proposal for urban development of La Carlota airport in Caracas (Venezuela). The Venezuelan Government would like to see a recreational project develop on the abandoned area and mean a significant improvement for the capital. There are currently three options on their table which are currently under evaluation. They include a Health Club, a Residential area and a Theme Park. The participating experts coincided in the appreciation that the method proposed in this paper is useful and an improvement from traditional techniques such as environmental impact studies, lifecycle analysis, etc. They find the results obtained coherent, the process seems sufficiently rigorous and precise, and the use of resources is significantly less than in other methods.

Keywords: Environmental pressure indicators, multicriteria decision analysis, analytic network process.

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Authors: L. N. A. C. Jayawardena, Ales Gregar

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Emotional Intelligence (EI) has been identified as an important factor for corporate success. However, there are few empirical findings on the impact of Strategic EI per se. The ooverall objective of the study was to empirically examine the relationship between the Strategic EI and Transformational Leadership style of managers. Sixty four managers were selected from the banking industry in Czech Republic. Genos EI Inventory, and the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire – Form 5X-Short were employed as the major research instruments of the study. Descriptive and inferential analyses of survey data were conducted using SPSS software. Variations were observed among the components of Strategic EI between males, and females. Study concludes positive a relationship between Strategic EI of Czech managers and their transformational leadership style. Improving awareness and usage of EI, will contribute to facilitate career success through enhanced levels of transformational leadership of managers.

Keywords: Strategic Emotional Intelligence, Transformational leadership, Socio-demographic factors.

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Authors: Shi-hong Lu, Chao-xun Liu, Yi-feng Zhu

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Ultrasonic shot peening (USP) on AALY12 sheet was studied. Several parameters (arc heights, surface roughness, surface topography and micro hardness) with different USP process parameters were measured. The research proposes that radius of curvature of shot peened sheet increases with time and electric current decreasing, while increases with pin diameter increasing, and radius of curvature reaches a saturation level after a specific processing time and electric current. An empirical model of the relationship between radius of curvature and pin diameter, electric current, time was also obtained. The research shows that the increment of surface and vertical micro hardness of material is more obvious with longer time and higher value of electric current, which can be up to 20% and 28% respectively.

Keywords: USP forming, surface properties, radius of curvature, residual stress.

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Authors: Ying Wang

Abstract:

Service trade is an important force of influencing economic development. A review on the related literatures is done firstly. Then through the construction of a Diamond Model, the main factors which influence the competitiveness of Chinese service trade are determined. With three competitiveness indexes served as the reference series respectively, the influencing factors served as the comparable series, three grey incidence models are then built up to conduct an empirical analysis on the main factors influencing the competitiveness of service trade after China entering WTO. The result indicates that urbanization level, open degree of service industry and foreign direct investment have larger impacts on Chinese service trade competitiveness, followed in turn by GDP in service industry and human capital, while commodity trade has the minimum impact. Further discussion provides train of thought for the upgrade of Chinese service trade competitiveness.

Keywords: Service Trade, Competitiveness, Diamond Model, Grey Incidence Model.

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Authors: Mohammad Yasrebi, Somayeh Khosravi

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Machine-understandable data when strongly interlinked constitutes the basis for the SemanticWeb. Annotating web documents is one of the major techniques for creating metadata on the Web. Annotating websitexs defines the containing data in a form which is suitable for interpretation by machines. In this paper, we present a better and improved approach than previous [1] to annotate the texts of the websites depends on the knowledge base.

Keywords: Knowledge base, ontology, semantic annotation, XML.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.

Keywords: Energy Consumption, Panel Unit Root, Sequential Panel Selection Method, Fourier Function, US states.

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Authors: Zanjbeel Tabassum, Cahit Ali Bayraktar, Asfa Muhammad Din, Murat Durucu

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Six Sigma is a widely adapted quality improvement methodology applied throughout the world. Through this paper, an attempt has been made to identify Critical Success Factors (CSF) for successful implementation of Six Sigma in Pakistani Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). A survey methodology was used to collect the data from SMEs in Pakistan. The results of this exploratory empirical research reflect the importance of different CSFs of Six Sigma implementation in SMEs in Pakistan. On the basis of extracted factors, a framework has been proposed for successful Six Sigma implementation in Pakistani SMEs. This study will provide a base for Pakistani SMEs and future researchers working in Six Sigma implementation and help them to prepare a road map to eradicate the hurdles in Six Sigma implementation.

Keywords: Critical success factors, small and medium-sized enterprises, Six Sigma, Pakistan.

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Authors: Rihab Hamdi, Amel Hadri Hamida, Fatiha Khelili, Sakina Zerouali, Ouafae Bennis

Abstract:

This paper features a comparative study performance of sliding mode controller (SMC) for closed-loop voltage control of direct current to direct current (DC-DC) three-cells buck converter connected in parallel, operating in continuous conduction mode (CCM), based on pulse-width modulation (PWM) with SMC based on hysteresis modulation (HM) where an adaptive feedforward technique is adopted. On one hand, for the PWM-based SM, the approach is to incorporate a fixed-frequency PWM scheme which is effectively a variant of SM control. On the other hand, for the HM-based SM, oncoming an adaptive feedforward control that makes the hysteresis band variable in the hysteresis modulator of the SM controller in the aim to restrict the switching frequency variation in the case of any change of the line input voltage or output load variation are introduced. The results obtained under load change, input change and reference change clearly demonstrates a similar dynamic response of both proposed techniques, their effectiveness is fast and smooth tracking of the desired output voltage. The PWM-based SM technique has greatly improved the dynamic behavior with a bit advantageous compared to the HM-based SM technique, as well as provide stability in any operating conditions. Simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink environment have been performed to verify the concept.

Keywords: Sliding mode control, pulse-width modulation, hysteresis modulation, DC-DC converter, parallel multi-cells converter, robustness.

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Authors: Mohammed S. Assiri

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In EFL programs, rating scales used in writing assessment are often constructed by intuition. Intuition-based scales tend to provide inaccurate and divisive ratings of learners’ writing performance. Hence, following an empirical approach, this study attempted to develop a rating scale for elementary-level writing at an EFL program in Saudi Arabia. Towards this goal, 98 students’ essays were scored and then coded using comprehensive taxonomy of writing constructs and their measures. An automatic linear modeling was run to find out which measures would best predict essay scores. A nonparametric ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, was then used to determine which measures could best differentiate among scoring levels. Findings indicated that there were certain measures that could serve as either good predictors of essay scores or differentiators among scoring levels, or both. The main conclusion was that a rating scale can be empirically developed using predictive and discriminative statistical tests.

Keywords: Analytic scoring, rating scales, writing assessment, writing performance.

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Authors: F. Abujalala, A. Elmangoush, M. Ashibani

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The adoption of Blockchain technology introduces the possibility to decentralize cold chain systems. This adaptation enhances them to be more efficient, accessible, verifiable, and data security. Additionally, the Internet of Things (IoT) concept is considered as an added-value to various application domains. Cargo tracking and cold chain are a few to name. However, the security of the IoT transactions and integrated devices remains one of the key challenges to the IoT application’s success. Consequently, Blockchain technology and its consensus protocols have been used to solve many information security problems. In this paper, we discuss the advantages of integrating Blockchain technology into IoT platform to improve security and provide an overview of existing literature on integrating Blockchain and IoT platforms. Then, we present the immunization cold chain solution as a use-case that could be applied to any critical goods based on integrating Hyperledger fabric platform and IoT platform.

Keywords: Blockchain, Hyperledger fabric, internet of things, security, traceability.

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Authors: Arunroong Wongkungwan

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the influence of selected antecedents, which were tourists’ satisfaction towards attractions in Bangkok, perceived value of the attractions, feelings of engagement with the attractions, acquaintance with the attractions, push factors, pull factors and motivation to seek novelty, on foreign tourist’s loyalty towards tourist attractions in Bangkok. By using multi stage sampling technique, 400 international tourists were sampled. After that, Semi Structural Equation Model was utilized in the analysis stage by LISREL. The Semi Structural Equation Model of the selected antecedents of tourist’s loyalty attractions had a correlation with the empirical data through the following statistical descriptions: Chi- square = 3.43, df = 4, P- value = 0.48893; RMSEA = 0.000; CFI = 1.00; CN = 1539.75; RMR = 0.0022; GFI = 1.00 and AGFI = 0.98. The findings indicated that all antecedents were able together to predict the loyalty of the foreign tourists who visited Bangkok at 73 percent.

Keywords: Antecedents, Loyalty, Foreign Tourists, Tourist Attractions, Bangkok.

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Authors: V. H. Mankar, T. S. Das, S. K. Sarkar

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In this paper, we have proposed a novel blind watermarking architecture towards its hardware implementation in VLSI. In order to facilitate this hardware realization, cellular automata (CA) concept is introduced. The CA has been already accepted as an attractive structure for VLSI implementation because of its modularity, parallelism, high performance and reliability. The hardware realizable multiresolution spread spectrum watermarking techniques are very few in numbers in spite of their best ever resiliency against signal impairments. This is because of the computational cost and complexity associated with their different filter banks and lifting techniques. The concept of cellular automata theory in order to form a new transform domain technique i.e. Cellular Automata Transform (CAT) have been incorporated. Since CA provides spreading sequences having very low cross-correlation properties, the CA based pseudorandom sequence generator is considered in the present work. Considering the watermarking technique as a digital communication process, an error control coding (ECC) must be incorporated in the data hiding schemes. Besides the hardware implementation of entire CA based data hiding technique, the individual blocks of the algorithm using CA provide the best result than that of some other methods irrespective of the hardware and software technique. The Cellular Automata Transform, CA based PN sequence generator, and CA ECC are the requisite blocks that are developed not only to meet the reliable hardware requirements but also for the basic spread spectrum watermarking features. The proposed algorithm shows statistical invisibility and resiliency against various common signal-processing operations. This algorithmic design utilizes the existing allocated bandwidth in the data transmission channel in a more efficient manner.

Keywords: Cellular automata, watermarking, error control coding, PN sequence, VLSI.

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Authors: Haksoon Kim

Abstract:

The paper investigates the relationship between the foreign direct investment (FDI) and the corporate governance or transparency by investigating the country-level FDI flows, FDI inward performance, corporate governance and transparency variables. From the regression analysis with Newey-West estimator of 28 country panel data from 1990- 2002, we find strong positive relationships between corporate governance or transparency level of hosting countries and FDI inward performance within hosting countries. A strong positive relationship is found between anti-director rights level or number of analysts of hosting countries and FDI inward performance within hosting countries. Also, we find a positive relationship between the number of analysts of hosting countries and FDI inflows. The empirical results are consistent with stock market liberalizations and corporate governance explanations of reasons for FDI.

Keywords: corporate governance, corporate transparency, FDIflows, FDI inward performance

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Authors: А. Pashayev, D. Askerov, R. Sadiqov, A. Samedov, C. Ardil

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In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Modeling, Simulating, Gas Turbine, Cooled Blades.

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Authors: Agneta Sundström, Zahra Ahmadi, Akmal Hyder

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The purpose of this paper is to develop a typology based on market orientation (MO) and innovation orientation (IO), and to illustrate to what extent housing companies in Sweden fit within this framework. A qualitative study on 11 public housing companies in the central part of Sweden has been conducted by the help of open and semi-structured questions for data collection. Four public housing company types- i.e. reactive prospector, proactive prospector, reactive defender and proactive defender have been identified by the combination of MO-IO dimensions. Future research can include other dimensions like entrepreneurship and network to observe how it particularly affects MO. An empirical study can compare public and private housing companies on the basis of MO and IO dimensions. One major contribution of the paper is the proposition of typology which can be used to describe public housing companies and deciding their future course of actions.

Keywords: Customer-led, economy, innovativeness, market orientation.

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Authors: Matta S. N. S. Kiran, Manikantadhar Maheswaram, Akshat Upadhyay, Rohit Mishra, Bhagat Singh

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A bearing is a very common and useful component of mechanical systems in order to transfer power from one end to another. Therefore, to ensure the accountability and robustness of the rotating mechanical systems, the bearing part's health condition must be checked at regular intervals, also known as preventive maintenance. This condition may lead to unnecessary higher maintenance costs and later result in higher production costs. These costs can be minimized by diagnosing the faulty bearing in its incipient stage. This paper describes an approach to detect rolling bearing defects based on Empirical Mode Decomposition. The novelty of the proposed methodology is validated experimentally using Case Western Reserve University bearing's data sets. The selected data sets comprise the two vibration signals, i.e., inner race and outer, for healthy and faulty conditions.

Keywords: Ball bearing, denoising, signal processing, statistical indicators.

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Authors: Roman Asatryan

Abstract:

The decision-making processes in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) among firms in the airlines industry borders on the benefits that accrue to firms through those investments. The crux of the matter is how firms can quantify the benefits derived from such investments. This paper analyses the cost benefit adjustment strategies for firms in the airline industry in their CSR strategy adoption and implementation. The paper discusses the CBA model in order to understand the ways airlines can reduce costs and increase returns on CSR, or balance the cost and benefits. The analysis indicates that, economic concepts especially the CBA are useful, though they are not without challenges. This paper concludes that the CBA model gives a basic understanding of the motivations for investing in intangible assets like CSR. It sets the tone for formulating relevant hypothesis in empirical studies in investment in CSR and other intangible assets in business operations.

Keywords: Cost Benefit Analysis, Corporate Social Responsibility, airline industry.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

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Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords:

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: C. C. Huang, M. S. Amirrudin, N. A. Ahamad Noruddin, R. Othman

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Anti-money laundering is commonly recognized as a set of procedures, laws or regulations designed to reduce the practice of generating income through illegal actions. In Malaysia, the government and law enforcement agencies have stepped up their capacities and efforts to curb money laundering since 2001. One of these measures was the enactment of the Anti-Money Laundering Act (AMLA) in 2001. The implementation costs on anti-money laundering requirements (AMLR) can be burdensome to those who are involved in enforcing them. The objective of this paper is to explore the perceived effectiveness of AMLR from the enforcement agencies- perspective. This is a preliminary study whose findings will help to give direction for further AML research in Malaysia. In addition, the results of this study provide empirical evidences on the perceived effectiveness of AMLR prior to further investigations on barriers and improvements of the implementation of the anti-money laundering regime in Malaysia.

Keywords: Anti-money laundering, anti-money laundering requirements, perceived effectiveness, enforcement agencies.

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Authors: P. Saravanan, A. Vasumathi

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The authors conducted a study for the sample size of 75 HR managers from an Indian IT company through systematic sampling method. This study identifies that the female employees are facing lesser conflict than the male employees against their managers within the organization. There is a positive correlation between gender and conflict management with the superior towards the work. There is a significant variance between age and response towards appraisal system, succession planning and employee engagement. The education qualification plays a major role in determining the compensation factor for the employees working in the organization. The study determines the impact of demographic profile on strategic HRM practices and its challenges faced by HR managers in IT firm, India.

Keywords: Strategic Human resource management, Change agent, Employee engagement, Performance management, Succession planning and Conflict management.

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Authors: Nawfal A. Mehdi, Ali Mamat, Hamidah Ibrahim, Shamala K. Syrmabn

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The increase on the demand of IT resources diverts the enterprises to use the cloud as a cheap and scalable solution. Cloud computing promises achieved by using the virtual machine as a basic unite of computation. However, the virtual machine pre-defined settings might be not enough to handle jobs QoS requirements. This paper addresses the problem of mapping jobs have critical start deadlines to virtual machines that have predefined specifications. These virtual machines hosted by physical machines and shared a fixed amount of bandwidth. This paper proposed an algorithm that uses the idle virtual machines bandwidth to increase the quote of other virtual machines nominated as executors to urgent jobs. An algorithm with empirical study have been given to evaluate the impact of the proposed model on impatient jobs. The results show the importance of dynamic bandwidth allocation in virtualized environment and its affect on throughput metric.

Keywords: Insufficient bandwidth, virtual machine, cloudprovider, impatient jobs.

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Authors: Arne Koschel, Irina Astrova, Elena Deutschkämer, Jacob Ester, Johannes Feldmann

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In this paper various techniques in relation to large-scale systems are presented. At first, explanation of large-scale systems and differences from traditional systems are given. Next, possible specifications and requirements on hardware and software are listed. Finally, examples of large-scale systems are presented.

Keywords: Distributed file systems, cashing, large scale systems, MapReduce algorithm, NoSQL databases.

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Authors: Meghna Maiti, Utpal Roy

Abstract:

In India, till today, malaria is considered to be one of the significant infectious diseases. Most of the cases regional geographical factors are the principal elements to let the places a unique identity. The incidence and intensity of infectious diseases are quite common and affect different places differently across the nation. The present study aims to identify spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots of malaria incidence and their seasonal variation during the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20 in the state of West Bengal in India. As malaria is a vector-borne disease, numbers of positive test results are to be reported by the laboratories to the Department of Health, West Bengal (through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme). Data on block-wise monthly malaria positive cases are collected from Health Management Information System (HMIS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Moran’s I statistic is performed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence. The spatial statistical analysis mainly Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) cluster and Local Geary Cluster are applied to find the spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots and seasonal variability of malaria incidence over the three periods. The result indicates that the spatial distribution of malaria is clustered during each of the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20. The analysis shows that in all the cases, high-high clusters are primarily concentrated in the western (Purulia, Paschim Medinipur districts), central (Maldah, Murshidabad districts) and the northern parts (Jalpaiguri, Kochbihar districts) and low-low clusters are found in the lower Gangetic plain (central-south) mainly and northern parts of West Bengal during the stipulated period. Apart from this seasonal variability inter-year variation is also visible. The results from different methods of this study indicate significant variation in the spatial distribution of malaria incidence in West Bengal and high incidence clusters are primarily persistently concentrated over the western part during 2012-2020 along with a strong seasonal pattern with a peak in rainy and autumn. By applying the different techniques in identifying the different degrees of incidence zones of malaria across West Bengal, some specific pockets or malaria hotspots are marked and identified where the incidence rates are quite harmonious over the different periods. From this analysis, it is clear that malaria is not a disease that is distributed uniformly across the state; some specific pockets are more prone to be affected in particular seasons of each year. Disease ecology and spatial patterns must be the factors in explaining the real factors for the higher incidence of this issue within those affected districts. The further study mainly by applying empirical approach is needed for discerning the strong relationship between communicable disease and other associated affecting factors.

Keywords: Malaria, infectious diseases, spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation, LISA.

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