Search results for: Multiple regression modeling
3016 Mathematical Modeling of Asphaltene Precipitation: A Review
Authors: Josefina Barnachea Janier, Radzuan B. Razali, Afza Shafie, Brahim Belhaouari Samir
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In the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) method, use of Carbon dioxide flooding whereby CO2 is injected into an oil reservoir to increase output when extracting oil resulted significant recovery worldwide. The carbon dioxide function as a pressurizing agent when mixed into the underground crude oil will reduce its viscosity and will enable a rapid oil flow. Despite the CO2’s advantage in the oil recovery, it may result to asphaltene precipitation a problem that will cause the reduction of oil produced from oil wells. In severe cases, asphaltene precipitation can cause costly blockages in oil pipes and machinery. This paper presents reviews of several studies done on mathematical modeling of asphaltene precipitation. The synthesized result from several researches done on this topic can be used as guide in order to better understand asphaltene precipitation. Likewise, this can be used as initial reference for students, and new researchers doing study on asphaltene precipitation.
Keywords: Asphaltene precipitation, crude oil, carbon dioxide flooding, enhanced oil recovery.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 39953015 A Coupled Extended-Finite-Discrete Element Method: On the Different Contact Schemes between Continua and Discontinua
Authors: Shervin Khazaeli, Shahab Haj-zamani
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Recently, advanced geotechnical engineering problems related to soil movement, particle loss, and modeling of local failure (i.e. discontinua) as well as modeling the in-contact structures (i.e. continua) are of the great interest among researchers. The aim of this research is to meet the requirements with respect to the modeling of the above-mentioned two different domains simultaneously. To this end, a coupled numerical method is introduced based on Discrete Element Method (DEM) and eXtended-Finite Element Method (X-FEM). In the coupled procedure, DEM is employed to capture the interactions and relative movements of soil particles as discontinua, while X-FEM is utilized to model in-contact structures as continua, which may consist of different types of discontinuities. For verification purposes, the new coupled approach is utilized to examine benchmark problems including different contacts between/within continua and discontinua. Results are validated by comparison with those of existing analytical and numerical solutions. This study proves that extended-finite-discrete element method can be used to robustly analyze not only contact problems, but also other types of discontinuities in continua such as (i) crack formations and propagations, (ii) voids and bimaterial interfaces, and (iii) combination of previous cases. In essence, the proposed method can be used vastly in advanced soil-structure interaction problems to investigate the micro and macro behaviour of the surrounding soil and the response of the embedded structure that contains discontinuities.Keywords: Contact problems, discrete element method, extended-finite element method, soil-structure interaction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12353014 The Effects of Negative Electronic Word-of-Mouth and Webcare on Thai Online Consumer Behavior
Authors: Pongsatorn Tantrabundit, Lersak Phothong, Ong-art Chanprasitchai
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Due to the emergence of the Internet, it has extended the traditional Word-of-Mouth (WOM) to a new form called “Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM).” Unlike traditional WOM, eWOM is able to present information in various ways by applying different components. Each eWOM component generates different effects on online consumer behavior. This research investigates the effects of Webcare (responding message) from product/ service providers on negative eWOM by applying two types of products (search and experience). The proposed conceptual model was developed based on the combination of the stages in consumer decision-making process, theory of reasoned action (TRA), theory of planned behavior (TPB), the technology acceptance model (TAM), the information integration theory and the elaboration likelihood model. The methodology techniques used in this study included multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that Webcare does slightly increase Thai online consumer’s perceptions on perceived eWOM trustworthiness, information diagnosticity and quality. For negative eWOM, we also found that perceived eWOM Trustworthiness, perceived eWOM diagnosticity and quality have a positive relationship with eWOM influence whereas perceived valence has a negative relationship with eWOM influence in Thai online consumers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13993013 CFD Modeling of High Temperature Seal Chamber
Authors: Mikhail P. Strongin, Ragupathi Soundararajan
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The purpose of this work is fast design optimization of the seal chamber. The study includes the mass transfer between lower and upper chamber on seal chamber for hot water application pumps. The use of Fluent 12.1 commercial code made it possible to capture complex flow with heat-mass transfer, radiation, Tailor instability, and buoyancy effect. Realizable k-epsilon model was used for turbulence modeling. Radiation heat losses were taken into account. The temperature distribution at seal region is predicted with respect to heat addition. Results show the possibilities of the model simplifications by excluding the water domain in low chamber from calculations. CFD simulations permit to improve seal chamber design to meet target water temperature around the seal. This study can be used for the analysis of different seal chamber configurations.Keywords: CFD, heat transfer, seal chamber, high temperature water
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16743012 Effects of Video Games and Online Chat on Mathematics Performance in High School: An Approach of Multivariate Data Analysis
Authors: Lina Wu, Wenyi Lu, Ye Li
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Regarding heavy video game players for boys and super online chat lovers for girls as a symbolic phrase in the current adolescent culture, this project of data analysis verifies the displacement effect on deteriorating mathematics performance. To evaluate correlation or regression coefficients between a factor of playing video games or chatting online and mathematics performance compared with other factors, we use multivariate analysis technique and take gender difference into account. We find the most important reason for the negative sign of the displacement effect on mathematics performance due to students’ poor academic background. Statistical analysis methods in this project could be applied to study internet users’ academic performance from the high school education to the college education.
Keywords: Correlation coefficients, displacement effect, gender difference, multivariate analysis technique, regression coefficients.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21693011 Computational Modeling of Combustion Wave in Nanoscale Thermite Reaction
Authors: Kyoungjin Kim
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Nanoscale thermites such as the composite mixture of nano-sized aluminum and molybdenum trioxide powders possess several technical advantages such as much higher reaction rate and shorter ignition delay, when compared to the conventional energetic formulations made of micron-sized metal and oxidizer particles. In this study, the self-propagation of combustion wave in compacted pellets of nanoscale thermite composites is modeled and computationally investigated by utilizing the activation energy reduction of aluminum particles due to nanoscale particle sizes. The present computational model predicts the speed of combustion wave propagation which is good agreement with the corresponding experiments of thermite reaction. Also, several characteristics of thermite reaction in nanoscale composites are discussed including the ignition delay and combustion wave structures.
Keywords: Nanoparticles, Thermite reaction, Combustion wave, Numerical modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24453010 Brazilian Environmental Public Policies Analysis
Authors: Estela Macedo Alves
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This paper is an overview on public policy analysis focused on the study of Brazilian public policy making process. The methodology is based on the review of some theories on the subject, linking them to Brazilian reality. The study presents basic policy analysis concepts, such as policy, polity and politics. It is emphasized John Kingdon's Multiple Stream Model, because of its clarifying aspects concerning public policies formulation process in democratic countries. In this path it was possible to establish interpretations on environmental public policies in Brazil and understand its methods, instead of presenting only a case study. At the end, it is possible to connect theory with Brazilian reality, identifying negative and positive points of its political processes and structure.
Keywords: Brazilian policies, environmental public policy, multiple stream model, public policy analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21693009 Autonomous Control of Multiple Mobile Manipulators
Authors: Shonal Singh, Bibhya Sharma, Jito Vanualailai, Avinesh Prasad
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This paper considers the autonomous navigation problem of multiple n-link nonholonomic mobile manipulators within an obstacle-ridden environment. We present a set of nonlinear acceleration controllers, derived from the Lyapunov-based control scheme, which generates collision-free trajectories of the mobile manipulators from initial configurations to final configurations in a constrained environment cluttered with stationary solid objects of different shapes and sizes. We demonstrate the efficiency of the control scheme and the resulting acceleration controllers of the mobile manipulators with results through computer simulations of an interesting scenario.Keywords: Artificial potential fields, kinodynamic constraints, Lyapunov-based control scheme, Lyapunov stability, minimum distance technique, nonholonomic manipulator.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16773008 Ant Colony Optimization for Optimal Distributed Generation in Distribution Systems
Authors: I. A. Farhat
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The problem of optimal planning of multiple sources of distributed generation (DG) in distribution networks is treated in this paper using an improved Ant Colony Optimization algorithm (ACO). This objective of this problem is to determine the DG optimal size and location that in order to minimize the network real power losses. Considering the multiple sources of DG, both size and location are simultaneously optimized in a single run of the proposed ACO algorithm. The various practical constraints of the problem are taken into consideration by the problem formulation and the algorithm implementation. A radial power flow algorithm for distribution networks is adopted and applied to satisfy these constraints. To validate the proposed technique and demonstrate its effectiveness, the well-know 69-bus feeder standard test system is employed.cm.
Keywords: About Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Distributed Generation (DG).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32793007 Earth Station Neural Network Control Methodology and Simulation
Authors: Hanaa T. El-Madany, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. A. El-Rahman, Hassen T. Dorrah
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Renewable energy resources are inexhaustible, clean as compared with conventional resources. Also, it is used to supply regions with no grid, no telephone lines, and often with difficult accessibility by common transport. Satellite earth stations which located in remote areas are the most important application of renewable energy. Neural control is a branch of the general field of intelligent control, which is based on the concept of artificial intelligence. This paper presents the mathematical modeling of satellite earth station power system which is required for simulating the system.Aswan is selected to be the site under consideration because it is a rich region with solar energy. The complete power system is simulated using MATLAB–SIMULINK.An artificial neural network (ANN) based model has been developed for the optimum operation of earth station power system. An ANN is trained using a back propagation with Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The best validation performance is obtained for minimum mean square error. The regression between the network output and the corresponding target is equal to 96% which means a high accuracy. Neural network controller architecture gives satisfactory results with small number of neurons, hence better in terms of memory and time are required for NNC implementation. The results indicate that the proposed control unit using ANN can be successfully used for controlling the satellite earth station power system.
Keywords: Satellite, neural network, MATLAB, power system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18673006 ANN Modeling for Cadmium Biosorption from Potable Water Using a Packed-Bed Column Process
Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari
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The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.
Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21283005 Supersonic Flow around a Dihedral Airfoil: Modeling and Experimentation Investigation
Authors: A. Naamane, M. Hasnaoui
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Numerical modeling of fluid flows, whether compressible or incompressible, laminar or turbulent presents a considerable contribution in the scientific and industrial fields. However, the development of an approximate model of a supersonic flow requires the introduction of specific and more precise techniques and methods. For this purpose, the object of this paper is modeling a supersonic flow of inviscid fluid around a dihedral airfoil. Based on the thin airfoils theory and the non-dimensional stationary Steichen equation of a two-dimensional supersonic flow in isentropic evolution, we obtained a solution for the downstream velocity potential of the oblique shock at the second order of relative thickness that characterizes a perturbation parameter. This result has been dealt with by the asymptotic analysis and characteristics method. In order to validate our model, the results are discussed in comparison with theoretical and experimental results. Indeed, firstly, the comparison of the results of our model has shown that they are quantitatively acceptable compared to the existing theoretical results. Finally, an experimental study was conducted using the AF300 supersonic wind tunnel. In this experiment, we have considered the incident upstream Mach number over a symmetrical dihedral airfoil wing. The comparison of the different Mach number downstream results of our model with those of the existing theoretical data (relative margin between 0.07% and 4%) and with experimental results (concordance for a deflection angle between 1° and 11°) support the validation of our model with accuracy.
Keywords: Asymptotic modelling, dihedral airfoil, supersonic flow, supersonic wind tunnel.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7143004 Aerodynamic Designing of Supersonic Centrifugal Compressor Stages
Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova
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Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrates ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φ des deserves additional study.
Keywords: Centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32063003 Mixed Integer Programing for Multi-Tier Rebate with Discontinuous Cost Function
Authors: Y. Long, L. Liu, K. V. Branin
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One challenge faced by procurement decision-maker during the acquisition process is how to compare similar products from different suppliers and allocate orders among different products or services. This work focuses on allocating orders among multiple suppliers considering rebate. The objective function is to minimize the total acquisition cost including purchasing cost and rebate benefit. Rebate benefit is complex and difficult to estimate at the ordering step. Rebate rules vary for different suppliers and usually change over time. In this work, we developed a system to collect the rebate policies, standardized the rebate policies and developed two-stage optimization models for ordering allocation. Rebate policy with multi-tiers is considered in modeling. The discontinuous cost function of rebate benefit is formulated for different scenarios. A piecewise linear function is used to approximate the discontinuous cost function of rebate benefit. And a Mixed Integer Programing (MIP) model is built for order allocation problem with multi-tier rebate. A case study is presented and it shows that our optimization model can reduce the total acquisition cost by considering rebate rules.
Keywords: Discontinuous cost function, mixed integer programming, optimization, procurement, rebate.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6633002 Application of the Least Squares Method in the Adjustment of Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) Regression Models
Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo
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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.
Keywords: Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone (O3), least squares method, regression models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8253001 Performance Analysis of IDMA Scheme Using Quasi-Cyclic Low Density Parity Check Codes
Authors: Anurag Saxena, Alkesh Agrawal, Dinesh Kumar
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The next generation mobile communication systems i.e. fourth generation (4G) was developed to accommodate the quality of service and required data rate. This project focuses on multiple access technique proposed in 4G communication systems. It is attempted to demonstrate the IDMA (Interleave Division Multiple Access) technology. The basic principle of IDMA is that interleaver is different for each user whereas CDMA employs different signatures. IDMA inherits many advantages of CDMA such as robust against fading, easy cell planning; dynamic channel sharing and IDMA increase the spectral efficiency and reduce the receiver complexity. In this, performance of IDMA is analyzed using QC-LDPC coding scheme further it is compared with LDPC coding and at last BER is calculated and plotted in MATLAB.
Keywords: 4G, QC-LDPC, CDMA, IDMA.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19873000 A New Approach to Polynomial Neural Networks based on Genetic Algorithm
Authors: S. Farzi
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Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to advanced techniques of system modeling. PNN(polynomial neural network) is a GMDH-type algorithm (Group Method of Data Handling) which is one of the useful method for modeling nonlinear systems but PNN performance depends strongly on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial which are determined by trial and error. In this paper, we introduce GPNN (genetic polynomial neural network) to improve the performance of PNN. GPNN determines the number of input variables and the order of all neurons with GA (genetic algorithm). We use GA to search between all possible values for the number of input variables and the order of polynomial. GPNN performance is obtained by two nonlinear systems. the quadratic equation and the time series Dow Jones stock index are two case studies for obtaining the GPNN performance.Keywords: GMDH, GPNN, GA, PNN.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20932999 Correlations between Cleaning Frequency of Reservoir and Water Tower and Parameters of Water Quality
Authors: Chen Bi-Hsiang, Yang Hung-Wen, Lou Jie-Chung, Han Jia-Yun
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This study was investigated on sampling and analyzing water quality in water reservoir & water tower installed in two kind of residential buildings and school facilities. Data of water quality was collected for correlation analysis with frequency of sanitization of water reservoir through questioning managers of building about the inspection charts recorded on equipment for water reservoir. Statistical software packages (SPSS) were applied to the data of two groups (cleaning frequency and water quality) for regression analysis to determine the optimal cleaning frequency of sanitization. The correlation coefficient (R) in this paper represented the degree of correlation, with values of R ranging from +1 to -1.After investigating three categories of drinking water users; this study found that the frequency of sanitization of water reservoir significantly influenced the water quality of drinking water. A higher frequency of sanitization (more than four times per 1 year) implied a higher quality of drinking water. Results indicated that sanitizing water reservoir & water tower should at least twice annually for achieving the aim of safety of drinking water.Keywords: cleaning frequency of sanitization, parameters ofwater quality, regression analysis, water reservoir & water tower
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17342998 CO-OFDM DSP Channel Estimation
Authors: Pranav Ravikumar, Arunabha Bera, Vijay K. Mehra, Anand Kumar
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This paper solves the Non Linear Schrodinger Equation using the Split Step Fourier method for modeling an optical fiber. The model generates a complex wave of optical pulses and using the results obtained two graphs namely Loss versus Wavelength and Dispersion versus Wavelength are generated. Taking Chromatic Dispersion and Polarization Mode Dispersion losses into account, the graphs generated are compared with the graphs formulated by JDS Uniphase Corporation which uses standard values of dispersion for optical fibers. The graphs generated when compared with the JDS Uniphase Corporation plots were found to be more or less similar thus verifying that the model proposed is right. MATLAB software was used for doing the modeling.Keywords: Modulation, Non Linear Schrodinger Equation, Optical fiber, Split Step Fourier Method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27852997 Modeling and Simulation of Position Estimation of Switched Reluctance Motor with Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: Oguz Ustun, Erdal Bekiroglu
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In the present study, position estimation of switched reluctance motor (SRM) has been achieved on the basis of the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANNs can estimate the rotor position without using an extra rotor position sensor by measuring the phase flux linkages and phase currents. Flux linkage-phase current-rotor position data set and supervised backpropagation learning algorithm are used in training of the ANN based position estimator. A 4-phase SRM have been used to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed position estimator. Simulation results show that the proposed position estimator gives precise and accurate position estimations for both under the low and high level reference speeds of the SRM
Keywords: Artificial neural networks, modeling andsimulation, position observer, switched reluctance motor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20612996 Stochastic Scheduling to Minimize Expected Lateness in Multiple Identical Machines
Authors: Ghulam Zakria, Zailin Guan , Yasser Riaz Awan, Wan Lizhi
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There are many real world problems in which parameters like the arrival time of new jobs, failure of resources, and completion time of jobs change continuously. This paper tackles the problem of scheduling jobs with random due dates on multiple identical machines in a stochastic environment. First to assign jobs to different machine centers LPT scheduling methods have been used, after that the particular sequence of jobs to be processed on the machine have been found using simple stochastic techniques. The performance parameter under consideration has been the maximum lateness concerning the stochastic due dates which are independent and exponentially distributed. At the end a relevant problem has been solved using the techniques in the paper..Keywords: Quantity Production Flow Shop, LPT Scheduling, Stochastic Scheduling, Maximum Lateness, Random Due Dates
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13922995 Building Information Modeling and Its Application in the State of Kuwait
Authors: Michael Gerges, Ograbe Ahiakwo, Martin Jaeger, Ahmad Asaad
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Recent advances of Building Information Modeling (BIM) especially in the Middle East have increased remarkably. Dubai has been taking a lead on this by making it mandatory for BIM to be adopted for all projects that involve complex architecture designs. This is because BIM is a dynamic process that assists all stakeholders in monitoring the project status throughout different project phases with great transparency. It focuses on utilizing information technology to improve collaboration among project participants during the entire life cycle of the project from the initial design, to the supply chain, resource allocation, construction and all productivity requirements. In view of this trend, the paper examines the extent of applying BIM in the State of Kuwait, by exploring practitioners’ perspectives on BIM, especially their perspectives on main barriers and main advantages. To this end structured interviews were carried out based on questionnaires and with a range of different construction professionals. The results revealed that practitioners perceive improved communication and mitigated project risks by encouraged collaboration between project participants. However, it was also observed that the full implementation of BIM in the State of Kuwait requires concerted efforts to make clients demanding BIM, counteract resistance to change among construction professionals and offer more training for design team members. This paper forms part of an on-going research effort on BIM and its application in the State of Kuwait and it is on this basis that further research on the topic is proposed.
Keywords: Building Information Modeling, BIM, construction industry, Kuwait.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29522994 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models
Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi
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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4822993 A Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Scenario Portfolio Optimization Model
Authors: M. S. Osman, A. A. Tharwat, I. A. El-Khodary, A. G. Chalabi
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In this paper, we propose a multiple objective optimization model with respect to portfolio selection problem for investors looking forward to diversify their equity investments in a number of equity markets. Based on Markowitz-s M-V model we developed a Fuzzy Mixed Integer Multi-Objective Nonlinear Programming Problem (FMIMONLP) to maximize the investors- future gains on equity markets, reach the optimal proportion of the budget to be invested in different equities. A numerical example with a comprehensive analysis on artificial data from several equity markets is presented in order to illustrate the proposed model and its solution method. The model performed well compared with the deterministic version of the model.
Keywords: Equity Markets, Future Scenarios, PortfolioSelection, Multiple Criteria Fuzzy Optimization
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19742992 Quantitative Study for Exchange of Gases from Open Sewer Channel to Atmosphere
Authors: Asif Mansoor, Nasiruddin Khan, Noreen Jamil
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In this communication a quantitative modeling approach is applied to construct model for the exchange of gases from open sewer channel to the atmosphere. The data for the exchange of gases of the open sewer channel for the year January 1979 to December 2006 is utilized for the construction of the model. The study reveals that stream flow of the open sewer channel exchanges the toxic gases continuously with time varying scale. We find that the quantitative modeling approach is more parsimonious model for these exchanges. The usual diagnostic tests are applied for the model adequacy. This model is beneficial for planner and managerial bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to overcome future environmental problems.Keywords: Open sewer channel, Industrial waste, Municipalwaste, Gases exchange, Atmosphere, Stochastic models, Diagnosticschecks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15542991 Modeling the Effect of Thermal Gradation on Steady-State Creep Behavior of Isotropic Rotating Disc Made of Functionally Graded Material
Authors: Tania Bose, Minto Rattan, Neeraj Chamoli
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In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the effect of thermal gradation on the steady-state creep behavior of rotating isotropic disc made of functionally graded material using threshold stress based Sherby’s creep law. The composite discs made of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon carbide particulate have been taken for analysis. The stress and strain rate distributions have been calculated for the discs rotating at elevated temperatures having thermal gradation. The material parameters of creep vary radially and have been estimated by regression fit of the available experimental data. Investigations for discs made up of linearly increasing particle content operating under linearly decreasing temperature from inner to outer radii have been done using von Mises’ yield criterion. The results are displayed and compared graphically in designer friendly format for the above said disc profile with the disc made of particle reinforced composite operating under uniform temperature profile. It is observed that radial and tangential stresses show minor variation and the strain rates vary significantly in the presence of thermal gradation as compared to disc having uniform temperature.Keywords: Creep, functionally graded isotropic material, steady-state, thermal gradation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8122990 Microgrid: Low Power Network Topology and Control
Authors: Amit Sachan
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The network designing and data modeling developments which are the two significant research tasks in direction to tolerate power control of Microgrid concluded using IEC 61850 data models and facilities. The current casing areas of IEC 61580 include infrastructures in substation automation systems, among substations and to DERs. So, for LV microgrid power control, previously using the IEC 61850 amenities to control the smart electrical devices, we have to model those devices as IEC 61850 data models and design a network topology to maintenance all-in-one communiqué amid those devices. In adding, though IEC 61850 assists modeling a portion by open-handed several object models for common functions similar measurement, metering, monitoring…etc., there are motionless certain missing smithereens for building a multiplicity of functions for household appliances like tuning the temperature of an electric heater or refrigerator.
Keywords: IEC 61850, RCMC, HCMC, DER Unit Controller.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24972989 Urban Water Management at the Time of Natural Disaster
Authors: H. Shahabi
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since in natural accidents, facilities that relate to this vita element are underground so, it is difficult to find quickly some right, exact and definite information about water utilities. There fore, this article has done operationally in Boukan city in Western Azarbaijan of Iran and it tries to represent operation and capabilities of Geographical Information system (GIS) in urban water management at the time of natural accidents. Structure of this article is that firstly it has established a comprehensive data base related to water utilities by collecting, entering, saving and data management, then by modeling water utilities we have practically considered its operational aspects related to water utility problems in urban regions.
Keywords: Natural Disaster, Geographical Information system (GIS), Modeling and network analysis, Boukan city in Western Azerbaijan, Iran
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14052988 Black Box Model and Evolutionary Fuzzy Control Methods of Coupled-Tank System
Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami
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In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.
Keywords: Function tuner method, fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16472987 Simulation of Non-Crimp 3D Orthogonal Carbon Fabric Composite for Aerospace Applications Using Finite Element Method
Authors: Sh. Minapoor, S. Ajeli, M. Javadi Toghchi
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Non-crimp 3D orthogonal fabric composite is one of the textile-based composite materials that are rapidly developing light-weight engineering materials. The present paper focuses on geometric and micromechanical modeling of non-crimp 3D orthogonal carbon fabric and composites reinforced with it for aerospace applications. In this research meso-finite element (FE) modeling employs for stress analysis in different load conditions. Since mechanical testing of expensive textile carbon composites with specific application isn't affordable, simulation composite in a virtual environment is a helpful way to investigate its mechanical properties in different conditions.Keywords: 3D orthogonal woven composite, Aerospace applications, Finite element method, Mechanical properties.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3058