Search results for: nonlinear estimation

Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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Authors: Inas E. Darwish, Alia M. Arab, Tarek A. Azeim, Teshreen M. Zeitoun, Wafaa A. Hewedy, Moemen A. Heiba, Iman S. Emara

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Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic relapsing-remitting condition that afflicts millions of people throughout the world and impairs their daily functions and quality of life. Treatment of IBD depends largely on 5-aminosalicylic acid (5- ASA) and corticosteroids. The present study aimed to clarify the effects of 5-aminosalicylic acid, budesonide and currcumin on 90 male albino rats against trinitrobenzene sulfonic acid (TNB) induced colitis. TNB was injected intrarectally to 50 rats. The other 40 rats served as control groups. Both 5-ASA (in a dose of 120 mg/kg) and budesonide (in a dose of 0.1 mg/kg) were administered daily for one week whereas currcumin was injected intraperitonially (in a dose of 30 mg/kg daily) for 14 days after injection of either TNB in the colitis rats (group B) or saline in control groups (group A). The study included estimation of macroscopic score index, histological examination of H&E stained sections of the colonic tissue, biochemical estimation of myeloperoxidase (MPO), nitric oxide (NO), and caspase-3 levels, in addition to studying the effect of tested drugs on colonic motility. It was found that budesonide and curcumin improved mucosal healing, reduced both NO production and caspase- 3 level. They had the best impact on the disturbed colonic motility in TNBS-model of colitis.

Keywords: Colitis, curcumin, nitric oxide.

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Authors: V. T. S. Dao, T. G. Etoh, C. Vo Le, H. D. Nguyen, K. Takehara, T. Akino, K. Nishi

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Since 2004, we have been developing an in-situ storage image sensor (ISIS) that captures more than 100 consecutive images at a frame rate of 10 Mfps with ultra-high sensitivity as well as the video camera for use with this ISIS. Currently, basic research is continuing in an attempt to increase the frame rate up to 100 Mfps and above. In order to suppress electro-magnetic noise at such high frequency, a digital-noiseless imaging transfer scheme has been developed utilizing solely sinusoidal driving voltages. This paper presents highly efficient-yet-accurate expressions to estimate attenuation as well as phase delay of driving voltages through RC networks of an ultra-high-speed image sensor. Elmore metric for a fundamental RC chain is employed as the first-order approximation. By application of dimensional analysis to SPICE data, we found a simple expression that significantly improves the accuracy of the approximation. Similarly, another simple closed-form model to estimate phase delay through fundamental RC networks is also obtained. Estimation error of both expressions is much less than previous works, only less 2% for most of the cases . The framework of this analysis can be extended to address similar issues of other VLSI structures.

Keywords: Dimensional Analysis, ISIS, Digital-noiseless, RC network, Attenuation, Phase Delay, Elmore model

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Authors: Bhanu Gupta, Sanjay K. Srivastava

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In this paper, we shall present sufficient conditions for the ψ-exponential stability of a class of nonlinear impulsive differential equations. We use the Lyapunov method with functions that are not necessarily differentiable. In the last section, we give some examples to support our theoretical results.

Keywords: Exponential stability, globally exponential stability, impulsive differential equations, Lyapunov function, ψ-stability.

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Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Irina Severin

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Bioprocesses are appreciated as difficult to control because their dynamic behavior is highly nonlinear and time varying, in particular, when they are operating in fed batch mode. The research objective of this study was to develop an appropriate control method for a complex bioprocess and to implement it on a laboratory plant. Hence, an intelligent control structure has been designed in order to produce biomass and to maximize the specific growth rate.

Keywords: Fed batch bioprocess, mass-balance model, fuzzy control

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Authors: T. T. Olugbenga, A. I. Augie

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This research proposes an interpretation of the Bouguer’ gravity anomaly data of some parts of Sokoto basin for the estimation of crustal thickness. The study area is bounded between latitudes 11⁰0′0″N and 13⁰0′0″N, and longitudes 4⁰0′0″E and 6⁰0′0″E that covered Koko, Jega, B/Kebbi, Argungu, Lema, Bodinga, Tamgaza, Gunmi,Daki Takwas, Dange, Sokoto, Ilella, T/Mafara, Anka, Maru, Gusau, K/Namoda, and Sabon Birni within Sokoto, Kebbi and Zamfara state respectively. The established map of the study area was digitized in X, Y and Z format using excel software package and the digitized data were processed using Surfer version 13 software. The Moho and Conrad depths based on a relationship between Bouguer’ gravity anomaly determined crustal thickness were estimated as 35 to 37 km and 19 to 21 km, respectively. The crustal region has been categorized into: Crustal thinning zone that is the region with high gravity anomaly value due to its greater geothermal energy and also Crustal thickening zone which the region with low anomaly values due to its lower geothermal energy. Birnin kebbi, Jega, Sokoto were identified as the region of hydrocarbon potential with an estimate of 35 km thickness within the crustal region which is referred to as crustal thickening as a result of its low but sufficient geothermal energy to decompose organic matter within the region to form hydrocarbons.

Keywords: Bouguer gravity anomaly, crustal thickness, geothermal energy, hydrocarbons, Moho and Conrad Depths.

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Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

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The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications.

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Authors: Annamária Käferné Rácz, Bence Jáger, Balázs Kövesdi, László Dunai

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Due to the numerous advantages of steel corrugated web girders, its application field is growing for bridges as well as for buildings. The global stability behavior of such girders is significantly larger than those of conventional I-girders with flat web, thus the application of the structural steel material can be significantly reduced. Design codes and specifications do not provide clear and complete rules or recommendations for the determination of the lateral torsional buckling (LTB) resistance of corrugated web girders. Therefore, the authors made a thorough investigation regarding the LTB resistance of the corrugated web girders. Finite element (FE) simulations have been performed to develop new design formulas for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders. FE model is developed considering geometrical and material nonlinear analysis using equivalent geometric imperfections (GMNI analysis). The equivalent geometric imperfections involve the initial geometric imperfections and residual stresses coming from rolling, welding and flame cutting. Imperfection sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the necessary magnitudes regarding only the first eigenmodes shape imperfections. By the help of the validated FE model, an extended parametric study is carried out to investigate the LTB resistance for different trapezoidal corrugation profiles. First, the critical moment of a specific girder was calculated by FE model. The critical moments from the FE calculations are compared to the previous analytical calculation proposals. Then, nonlinear analysis was carried out to determine the ultimate resistance. Due to the numerical investigations, new proposals are developed for the determination of the LTB resistance of trapezoidally corrugated web girders through a modification factor on the design method related to the conventional flat web girders.

Keywords: Critical moment, FE modeling, lateral torsional buckling, trapezoidally corrugated web girders.

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Authors: Mihai Caramihai Ana A Chirvase, Irina Severin

Abstract:

Bioprocesses are appreciated as difficult to control because their dynamic behavior is highly nonlinear and time varying, in particular, when they are operating in fed batch mode. The research objective of this study was to develop an appropriate control method for a complex bioprocess and to implement it on a laboratory plant. Hence, an intelligent control structure has been designed in order to produce biomass and to maximize the specific growth rate.

Keywords: Fed batch bioprocess, mass-balance model, fuzzy control.

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Authors: Mohammad Taghi Darvishi, Maliheh Najafi, Mohammad Najafi

Abstract:

In this work, we obtain some analytic solutions for the (3+1)-dimensional breaking soliton after obtaining its Hirota-s bilinear form. Our calculations show that, three-wave method is very easy and straightforward to solve nonlinear partial differential equations.

Keywords: (3+1)-dimensional breaking soliton equation, Hirota'sbilinear form.

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Authors: A. Elakkary, A. Echchatbi, N. Elalami

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In this paper, we are interested in attitude control of a satellite, which using wheels of reaction, by state feedback. First, we develop a method allowing us to put the control and its integral in the state-feedback form. Then, by using the theorem of Gronwall- Bellman, we put the sufficient conditions so that the nonlinear system modeling the satellite is stabilisable and observed by state feedback.

Keywords: Satellite, attitude control, state feedback, attitude stabilization.

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Authors: F. C. Amadi, G. C. Enyi, G. Nasr

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Relative permeabilities are practical factors that are used to correct the single phase Darcy’s law for application to multiphase flow. For effective characterisation of large-scale multiphase flow in hydrocarbon recovery, relative permeability and capillary pressures are used. These parameters are acquired via special core flooding experiments. Special core analysis (SCAL) module of reservoir simulation is applied by engineers for the evaluation of these parameters. But, core flooding experiments in shale core sample are expensive and time consuming before various flow assumptions are achieved for instance Darcy’s law. This makes it imperative for the application of coreflooding simulations in which various analysis of relative permeabilities and capillary pressures of multiphase flow can be carried out efficiently and effectively at a relative pace. This paper presents a Sendra software simulation of core flooding to achieve to relative permeabilities and capillary pressures using different correlations. The approach used in this study was three steps. The first step, the basic petrophysical parameters of Marcellus shale sample such as porosity was determined using laboratory techniques. Secondly, core flooding was simulated for particular scenario of injection using different correlations. And thirdly the best fit correlations for the estimation of relative permeability and capillary pressure was obtained. This research approach saves cost and time and very reliable in the computation of relative permeability and capillary pressures at steady or unsteady state, drainage or imbibition processes in oil and gas industry when compared to other methods.

Keywords: Special core analysis (SCAL), relative permeability, capillary pressures, drainage, imbibition.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

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In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: H K Lakshminarayana, J S Bhat, H M Mahesh

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A new estimator for evolutionary spectrum (ES) based on short time Fourier transform (STFT) and modified group delay function (MGDF) by signal decomposition (SD) is proposed. The STFT due to its built-in averaging, suppresses the cross terms and the MGDF preserves the frequency resolution of the rectangular window with the reduction in the Gibbs ripple. The present work overcomes the magnitude distortion observed in multi-component non-stationary signals with STFT and MGDF estimation of ES using SD. The SD is achieved either through discrete cosine transform based harmonic wavelet transform (DCTHWT) or perfect reconstruction filter banks (PRFB). The MGDF also improves the signal to noise ratio by removing associated noise. The performance of the present method is illustrated for cross chirp and frequency shift keying (FSK) signals, which indicates that its performance is better than STFT-MGDF (STFT-GD) alone. Further its noise immunity is better than STFT. The SD based methods, however cannot bring out the frequency transition path from band to band clearly, as there will be gap in the contour plot at the transition. The PRFB based STFT-SD shows good performance than DCTHWT decomposition method for STFT-GD.

Keywords: Evolutionary Spectrum, Modified Group Delay, Discrete Cosine Transform, Harmonic Wavelet Transform, Perfect Reconstruction Filter Banks, Short Time Fourier Transform.

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

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Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: Soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil.

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Authors: R. Sharma, S. Kumar, C. Sharma

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A number of toxic chlorophenolic compounds are formed during pulp bleaching. The nature and concentration of these chlorophenolic compounds largely depends upon the amount and nature of bleaching chemicals used. These compounds are highly recalcitrant and difficult to remove but are partially removed by the biochemical treatment processes adopted by the paper industry. Identification and estimation of these chlorophenolic compounds has been carried out in the primary and secondary clarified effluents from the paper mill by GCMS. Twenty-six chorophenolic compounds have been identified and estimated in paper mill waste waters. Electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for oxidation of pollutants and has successfully been used to treat textile and oil waste water. Electrochemical treatment using less expensive anode material, stainless steel electrodes has been tried to study their removal. The electrochemical assembly comprised a DC power supply, a magnetic stirrer and stainless steel (316 L) electrode. The optimization of operating conditions has been carried out and treatment has been performed under optimized treatment conditions. Results indicate that 68.7% and 83.8% of cholorphenolic compounds are removed during 2 h of electrochemical treatment from primary and secondary clarified effluent respectively. Further, there is a reduction of 65.1, 60 and 92.6% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for primary clarified and 83.8%, 75.9% and 96.8% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for secondary clarified effluent. EC treatment has also been found to increase significantly the biodegradability index of wastewater because of conversion of non- biodegradable fraction into biodegradable fraction. Thus, electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for the degradation of cholorophenolic compounds, removal of color, AOX and other recalcitrant organic matter present in paper mill waste water.

Keywords: Chlorophenolics, effluent, electrochemical treatment, wastewater.

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Authors: S. Wiriyarattanakun, A. Ruengsiriwatanakun, S. Noimanee

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The drainage Estimating is an important factor in dam management. In this paper, we use fuzzy support vector regression (FSVR) to predict the drainage of the Sirikrit Dam at Uttaradit province, Thailand. The results show that the FSVR is a suitable method in drainage estimating.

Keywords: Drainage Estimation, Prediction.

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Authors: M. Khairulmazidah, A. B. Nurul Nadiah, A. R. Rumiza

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Formulation of biological profile is one of the modern roles of forensic anthropologist. The present study was conducted to estimate height using foot and shoeprint length of Malaysian population. The present work can be very useful information in the process of identification of individual in forensic cases based on shoeprint evidence. It can help to narrow down suspects and ease the police investigation. Besides, stature is important parameters in determining the partial identify of unidentified and mutilated bodies. Thus, this study can help the problem encountered in cases of mass disaster, massacre, explosions and assault cases. This is because it is very hard to identify parts of bodies in these cases where people are dismembered and become unrecognizable. Samples in this research were collected from 200 Malaysian adults (100 males and 100 females) with age ranging from 20 to 45 years old. In this research, shoeprint length were measured based on the print of the shoes made from the flat shoes. Other information like gender, foot length and height of subject were also recorded. The data was analyzed using IBM® SPSS Statistics 19 software. Results indicated that, foot length has a strong correlation with stature than shoeprint length for both sides of the feet. However, in the unknown, where the gender was undetermined have shown a better correlation in foot length and shoeprint length parameter compared to males and females analyzed separately. In addition, prediction equations are developed to estimate the stature using linear regression analysis of foot length and shoeprint length. However, foot lengths give better prediction than shoeprint length. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology, foot length, shoeprints, stature estimation.

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Authors: Liang Chen

Abstract:

A family of improved secant-like method is proposed in this paper. Further, the analysis of the convergence shows that this method has super-linear convergence. Efficiency are demonstrated by numerical experiments when the choice of α is correct.

Keywords: Nonlinear equations, Secant method, Convergence order, Secant-like method.

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Authors: Helle Hein, Ülo Lepik

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A gradient learning method to regulate the trajectories of some nonlinear chaotic systems is proposed. The method is motivated by the gradient descent learning algorithms for neural networks. It is based on two systems: dynamic optimization system and system for finding sensitivities. Numerical results of several examples are presented, which convincingly illustrate the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: Chaos, Dynamical Systems, Learning, Neural Networks

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Authors: János Levendovszky, András Oláh

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In this paper, novel statistical sampling based equalization techniques and CNN based detection are proposed to increase the spectral efficiency of multiuser communication systems over fading channels. Multiuser communication combined with selective fading can result in interferences which severely deteriorate the quality of service in wireless data transmission (e.g. CDMA in mobile communication). The paper introduces new equalization methods to combat interferences by minimizing the Bit Error Rate (BER) as a function of the equalizer coefficients. This provides higher performance than the traditional Minimum Mean Square Error equalization. Since the calculation of BER as a function of the equalizer coefficients is of exponential complexity, statistical sampling methods are proposed to approximate the gradient which yields fast equalization and superior performance to the traditional algorithms. Efficient estimation of the gradient is achieved by using stratified sampling and the Li-Silvester bounds. A simple mechanism is derived to identify the dominant samples in real-time, for the sake of efficient estimation. The equalizer weights are adapted recursively by minimizing the estimated BER. The near-optimal performance of the new algorithms is also demonstrated by extensive simulations. The paper has also developed a (Cellular Neural Network) CNN based approach to detection. In this case fast quadratic optimization has been carried out by t, whereas the task of equalizer is to ensure the required template structure (sparseness) for the CNN. The performance of the method has also been analyzed by simulations.

Keywords: Cellular Neural Network, channel equalization, communication over fading channels, multiuser communication, spectral efficiency, statistical sampling.

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Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

We consider a heterogeneously mixing SIR stochastic epidemic process in populations described by a general graph. Likelihood theory is developed to facilitate statistic inference for the parameters of the model under complete observation. We show that these estimators are asymptotically Gaussian unbiased estimates by using a martingale central limit theorem.

Keywords: statistic inference, maximum likelihood, epidemicmodel, heterogeneous mixing.

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Authors: Wen-Yen Wu, Wen-Bin Yu

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In this paper, we propose a method for detecting circular shapes with subpixel accuracy. First, the geometric properties of circles have been used to find the diameters as well as the circumference pixels. The center and radius are then estimated by the circumference pixels. Both synthetic and real images have been tested by the proposed method. The experimental results show that the new method is efficient.

Keywords: Subpixel, least squares estimation, circle detection, Hough transformation.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba (Jean-Pierre Dubois), Philip Jreije

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Speckled images arise when coherent microwave, optical, and acoustic imaging techniques are used to image an object, surface or scene. Examples of coherent imaging systems include synthetic aperture radar, laser imaging systems, imaging sonar systems, and medical ultrasound systems. Speckle noise is a form of object or target induced noise that results when the surface of the object is Rayleigh rough compared to the wavelength of the illuminating radiation. Detection and estimation in images corrupted by speckle noise is complicated by the nature of the noise and is not as straightforward as detection and estimation in additive noise. In this work, we derive stochastic models for speckle noise, with an emphasis on speckle as it arises in medical ultrasound images. The motivation for this work is the problem of segmentation and tissue classification using ultrasound imaging. Modeling of speckle in this context involves partially developed speckle model where an underlying Poisson point process modulates a Gram-Charlier series of Laguerre weighted exponential functions, resulting in a doubly stochastic filtered Poisson point process. The statistical distribution of partially developed speckle is derived in a closed canonical form. It is observed that as the mean number of scatterers in a resolution cell is increased, the probability density function approaches an exponential distribution. This is consistent with fully developed speckle noise as demonstrated by the Central Limit theorem.

Keywords: Doubly stochastic filtered process, Poisson point process, segmentation, speckle, ultrasound

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Authors: Shorena Pharjiani

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Present empirical paper investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth by 10 selected industries in 10 Central and Eastern European countries from the period 1995 to 2012. Different estimation approaches were used to explore the connection between FDI and economic growth, for example OLS, RE, FE with and without time dummies. Obtained empirical results leads to some main consequences: First, the Central and East European countries (CEEC) attracted foreign direct investment, which raised the productivity of industries they entered in. It should be concluded that the linkage between FDI and output growth by industries is positive and significant enough to suggest that foreign firm’s participation enhanced the productivity of the industries they occupied. There had been an endogeneity problem in the regression and fixed effects estimation approach was used which partially corrected the regression analysis in order to make the results less biased. Second, it should be stressed that the results show that time has an important role in making FDI operational for enhancing output growth by industries via total factor productivity. Third, R&D positively affected economic growth and at the same time, it should take some time for research and development to influence economic growth. Fourth, the general trends masked crucial differences at the country level: over the last 20 years, the analysis of the tables and figures at the country level show that the main recipients of FDI of the 11 Central and Eastern European countries were Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. The main reason was that these countries had more open door policies for attracting the FDI. Fifth, according to the graphical analysis, while Hungary had the highest FDI inflow in this region, it was not reflected in the GDP growth as much as in other Central and Eastern European countries.

Keywords: Central and East European countries (CEEC), economic growth, FDI, panel data.

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Authors: Miriam Sosa-Díaz, Faustino Sánchez-Garduño

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In population dynamics the study of both, the abundance and the spatial distribution of the populations in a given habitat, is a fundamental issue a From ecological point of view, the determination of the factors influencing such changes involves important problems. In this paper a mathematical model to describe the temporal dynamic and the spatiotemporal dynamic of the interaction of three populations (pollinators, plants and herbivores) is presented. The study we present is carried out by stages: 1. The temporal dynamics and 2. The spatio-temporal dynamics. In turn, each of these stages is developed by considering three cases which correspond to the dynamics of each type of interaction. For instance, for stage 1, we consider three ODE nonlinear systems describing the pollinator-plant, plant-herbivore and plant-pollinator-herbivore, interactions, respectively. In each of these systems different types of dynamical behaviors are reported. Namely, transcritical and pitchfork bifurcations, existence of a limit cycle, existence of a heteroclinic orbit, etc. For the spatiotemporal dynamics of the two mathematical models a novel factor are introduced. This consists in considering that both, the pollinators and the herbivores, move towards those places of the habitat where the plant population density is high. In mathematical terms, this means that the diffusive part of the pollinators and herbivores equations depend on the plant population density. The analysis of this part is presented by considering pairs of populations, i. e., the pollinator-plant and plant-herbivore interactions and at the end the two mathematical model is presented, these models consist of two coupled nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. These are defined on a rectangular domain with the homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. We focused in the role played by the density dependent diffusion term into the coexistence of the populations. For both, the temporal and spatio-temporal dynamics, a several of numerical simulations are included.

Keywords: Bifurcation, heteroclinic orbits, steady state, traveling wave.

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Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions, sometimes, necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear wall in addition to the location the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear walls and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multistory buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-stoy buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement and particularly formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses, by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: Vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan walls.

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

Abstract:

The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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Authors: Qianhong Zhang, Lihui Yang, Daixi Liao,

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the existence, the boundedness and the asymptotic behavior of the positive solutions of a fuzzy nonlinear difference equations xn+1 = A + k i=0 Bi xn-i , n= 0, 1, · · · . where (xn) is a sequence of positive fuzzy numbers, A,Bi and the initial values x-k, x-k+1, · · · , x0 are positive fuzzy numbers. k ∈ {0, 1, 2, · · ·}.

Keywords: Fuzzy difference equation, boundedness, persistence, equilibrium point, asymptotic behaviour.

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Authors: Maharavo Randrianarivony

Abstract:

The length  of a given rational B'ezier curve is efficiently estimated. Since a rational B'ezier function is nonlinear, it is usually impossible to evaluate its length exactly. The length is approximated by using subdivision and the accuracy of the approximation n is investigated. In order to improve the efficiency, adaptivity is used with some length estimator. A rigorous theoretical analysis of the rate of convergence of n to  is given. The required number of subdivisions to attain a prescribed accuracy is also analyzed. An application to CAD parametrization is briefly described. Numerical results are reported to supplement the theory.

Keywords: Adaptivity, Length, Parametrization, Rational Bezier

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