Search results for: Time to Failure Distribution

Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

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Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: Beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution.

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Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi

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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.

Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.

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Authors: C. F. Kumru, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan

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In this study, electric field distribution analyses for three pylon models are carried out by a Finite Element Method (FEM) based software. Analyses are performed in both stationary and time domains to observe instantaneous values along with the effective ones. Considering the results of the study, different line geometries is considerably affecting the magnitude and distribution of electric field although the line voltages are the same. Furthermore, it is observed that maximum values of instantaneous electric field obtained in time domain analysis are quite higher than the effective ones in stationary mode. In consequence, electric field distribution analyses should be individually made for each different line model and the limit exposure values or distances to residential buildings should be defined according to the results obtained.

Keywords: Electric field, energy transmission line, finite element method, pylon.

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Authors: Magdalena Meusburger, Caroline Maria Hofer

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The advancement of women entrepreneurship in the last decade has been a vital driver for social and economic development. Despite the positive evolution, women entrepreneurs are still underrepresented in entrepreneurial ecosystems. Fear-of-failure is a major factor inhibiting their entrepreneurial activity. This survey-based research focused on aspiring and established entrepreneurial women in Austria and in the USA. It explored and compared the extent to which entrepreneurial fear-of-failure influences their self-employment and their aspirations to become self-employed. The results demonstrate that entrepreneurial fear-of-failure is significantly higher for women with the wish for self-employment than it is for women who are already self-employed. In terms of the geographical and cultural setting no major differences were confirmed.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial ecosystems, fear-of-failure, female entrepreneurship, women entrepreneurship.

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Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun

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Efficient use of energy, the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system are analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Distribution system, distribution transformer, power cable, technical losses.

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Authors: Guangpu Chen

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When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.

Keywords: Monotonic, Rosenblatt, Nataf transformation, dependence concepts, completely positive matrices, Gaussiancopulas

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring.

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Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: Accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Eatedal A. Alabdulkreem, Hamed S. Al-Raweshidy, Maysam F. Abbod

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Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the standard routing protocol between various autonomous systems (AS) in the internet. In the event of failure, a considerable delay in the BGP convergence has been shown by empirical measurements. During the convergence time the BGP will repeatedly advertise new routes to some destination and withdraw old ones until it reach a stable state. It has been found that the KEEPALIVE message timer and the HOLD time are tow parameters affecting the convergence speed. This paper aims to find the optimum value for the KEEPALIVE timer and the HOLD time that maximally reduces the convergence time without increasing the traffic. The KEEPALIVE message timer optimal value founded by this paper is 30 second instead of 60 seconds, and the optimal value for the HOLD time is 90 seconds instead of 180 seconds.

Keywords: BGP, Convergence Time, HOLD time, Keep alive.

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Authors: M. A. Hajeeh

Abstract:

Pumping systems are an integral part of water desalination plants, their effective functioning is vital for the operation of a plant. In this research work, the reliability and availability of pressurized pumps in a reverse osmosis desalination plant are studied with the objective of finding configurations that provides optimal performance. Six configurations of a series system with different number of warm and cold standby components were examined. Closed form expressions for the mean time to failure (MTTF) and the long run availability are derived and compared under the assumption that the time between failures and repair times of the primary and standby components are exponentially distributed. Moreover, a cost/ benefit analysis is conducted in order to identify a configuration with the best performance and least cost. It is concluded that configurations with cold standby components are preferable especially when the pumps are of the size.

Keywords: Availability, Cost/ benefit, Mean time to failure, Pumps.

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Authors: Raju Kaduru, Narsaiah Srinivas Gondlala

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This paper presents an analytical approach for evaluating distribution system reliability indices in the presence of distributed generation. Modeling distributed generation and evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using the frequency duration technique. Using model implements and case studies are discussed. Results showed that location of DG and its effect in distribution reliability indices. In this respect, impact of DG on distribution system is investigated using the IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS2) included feeder 1. Therefore, it will help to the distribution system planners in the DG resource placement.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, DG Location, Distribution System, Reliability Indices.

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Authors: Omer S. Mughieda

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Two-dimensional finite element model was created in this work to investigate the stresses distribution within rock-like samples with offset open non-persistent joints under biaxial loading. The results of this study have explained the fracture mechanisms observed in tests on rock-like material with open non-persistent offset joints [1]. Finite element code SAP2000 was used to study the stresses distribution within the specimens. Four-nodded isoperimetric plain strain element with two degree of freedom per node, and the three-nodded constant strain triangular element with two degree of freedom per node were used in the present study.The results of the present study explained the formation of wing cracks at the tip of the joints for low confining stress as well as the formation of wing cracks at the middle of the joint for the higher confining stress. High shear stresses found in the numerical study at the tip of the joints explained the formation of secondary cracks at the tip of the joints in the experimental study. The study results coincide with the experimental observations which showed that for bridge inclination of 0o, the coalescence occurred due to shear failure and for bridge inclination of 90o the coalescence occurred due to tensile failure while for the other bridge inclinations coalescence occurred due to mixed tensile and shear failure.

Keywords: Finite element, open offset rock joint, SAP2000, biaxial loading.

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Authors: Abdoullah Namdar, Fadzil Mat Yahaya

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Many synthetic additives have been using for improve cement mortar and concrete characteristics, but natural additive is a friendly environment option. The quantity of (2% and 4%) seashell powder has been replaced in cement mortar, and compared with plain cement mortar in early age of 7 days. The strain gauges have been installed on beams and cube, for monitoring fluctuation of flexural and compressive strength. Main objective of this paper is to study effect of linear static force on flexural and compressive strength of modified cement mortar. The results have been indicated that the replacement of appropriate proportion of seashell powder enhances cement mortar mechanical properties. The replacement of 2% seashell causes improvement of deflection, time to failure and maximum load to failure on concrete beam and cube, the same occurs for compressive modulus elasticity. Increase replacement of seashell to 4% reduces all flexural strength, compressive strength and strain of cement mortar.

Keywords: Compressive strength, flexural strength, compressive modulus elasticity, time to failure, deflection.

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Authors: Xiangbin Zhu

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Advances in computing applications in recent years have prompted the demand for more flexible scheduling models for QoS demand. Moreover, in practical applications, partly violated temporal constraints can be tolerated if the violation meets certain distribution. So we need extend the traditional Liu and Lanland model to adapt to these circumstances. There are two extensions, which are the (m, k)-firm model and Window-Constrained model. This paper researches on weakly hard real-time constraints and their combination to support QoS. The fact that a practical application can tolerate some violations of temporal constraint under certain distribution is employed to support adaptive QoS on the open real-time system. The experiment results show these approaches are effective compared to traditional scheduling algorithms.

Keywords: Weakly Hard Real-Time, Real-Time, Scheduling, Quality of Service.

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Authors: Said C. Fares, Mary A. Fares

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It is well documented that introductory computer programming courses are difficult and that failure rates are high. The aim of this project was to reduce the high failure and withdrawal rates in learning to program. This paper presents a number of changes in module organization and instructional delivery system in teaching CS1. Daily out of class help sessions and tutoring services were applied, interactive lectures and laboratories, online resources, and timely feedback were introduced. Five years of data of 563 students in 21 sections was collected and analyzed. The primary results show that the failure and withdrawal rates were cut by more than half. Student surveys indicate a positive evaluation of the modified instructional approach, overall satisfaction with the course and consequently, higher success and retention rates.

Keywords: Failure Rate, Interactive Learning, Student engagement, CS1.

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Authors: Mohd. A. M. Rahim, Yahaya Hassan, Mathumalar L. Fahrni

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Second line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen is used when patients fail their first line regimen. There are many factors such as non-adherence, drug resistance as well as virological and immunological failure that lead to second line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen treatment failure. This study was aimed at determining predictor factors to treatment failure with second line HAART and analyzing median survival time. An observational, retrospective study was conducted in Sungai Buloh Hospital (HSB) to assess current status of HIV patients treated with second line HAART regimen. Convenience sampling was used and 104 patients were included based on the study’s inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data was collected for six months i.e. from July until December 2013. Data was then analysed using SPSS version 18. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to measure median survival times and predictor factors for treatment failure. The study population consisted mainly of male subjects, aged 30- 45 years, who were heterosexual, and had HIV infection for less than 6 years. The most common second line HAART regimen given was lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-based combination. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients on LPV/r demonstrated longer median survival times than patients on indinavir/ritonavir (IDV/r) based combination (p<0.001). The commonest reason for a treatment to fail with second line HAART was non-adherence. Based on Cox regression analysis, other predictor factors for treatment failure with second line HAART regimen were age and mode of HIV transmission.

Keywords: Adherence, antiretroviral therapy, second line, treatment failure.

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Authors: Brandon Foggo, Nanpeng Yu

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Power distribution circuits undergo frequent network topology changes that are often left undocumented. As a result, the documentation of a circuit’s connectivity becomes inaccurate with time. The lack of reliable circuit connectivity information is one of the biggest obstacles to model, monitor, and control modern distribution systems. To enhance the reliability and efficiency of electric power distribution systems, the circuit’s connectivity information must be updated periodically. This paper focuses on one critical component of a distribution circuit’s topology - the secondary transformer to phase association. This topology component describes the set of phase lines that feed power to a given secondary transformer (and therefore a given group of power consumers). Finding the documentation of this component is call Phase Identification, and is typically performed with physical measurements. These measurements can take time lengths on the order of several months, but with supervised learning, the time length can be reduced significantly. This paper compares several such methods applied to Phase Identification for a large range of real distribution circuits, describes a method of training data selection, describes preprocessing steps unique to the Phase Identification problem, and ultimately describes a method which obtains high accuracy (> 96% in most cases, > 92% in the worst case) using only 5% of the measurements typically used for Phase Identification.

Keywords: Distribution network, machine learning, network topology, phase identification, smart grid.

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Authors: Azizollah Khormali, Seyyed Shahab Tabatabaee Moradi, Dmitry Petrakov

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One of the most important parameters in petroleum reservoirs is the pressure distribution along the reservoir, as the pressure varies with the time and location. A popular method to determine the pressure distribution in a reservoir in the unsteady state regime of flow is applying Darcy’s equation and solving this equation numerically. The numerical simulation of reservoirs is based on these numerical solutions of different partial differential equations (PDEs) representing the multiphase flow of fluids. Pressure profile has obtained in a one dimensional system solving Darcy’s equation explicitly. Changes of pressure profile in three situations are investigated in this work. These situations include section length changes, step time changes and time approach to infinity. The effects of these changes in pressure profile are shown and discussed in the paper.

Keywords: Explicit solution, Numerical simulation, Petroleum reservoir, Pressure distribution.

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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Authors: Abdurrahman Arslanyilmaz, Salman Al Matouq, Durmus V. Doner

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Level 3 autonomous vehicles are able to take full responsibility over the control of the vehicle unless a system boundary is reached or a system failure occurs, in which case, the driver is expected to take-over the control of the vehicle. While this happens, the driver is often not aware of the traffic situation or is engaged in a secondary task. Factors affecting the duration and quality of take-overs in these situations have included secondary task type and nature, traffic density, take-over request (TOR) time, and TOR warning type and modality. However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no prior study examined time buffer for TORs when a system failure occurs immediately before intersections. The first objective of this study is to investigate the effect of time buffer (3 and 7 seconds) on the duration and quality of take-overs when a system failure occurs just prior to intersections. In addition, eye-tracking has become one of the most popular methods to report what individuals view, in what order, for how long, and how often, and it has been utilized in driving simulations with various objectives. However, to the extent of authors’ knowledge, none has compared drivers’ eye gaze behavior in the two different time buffers in order to examine drivers’ attention and comprehension of salient information. The second objective is to understand the driver’s attentional focus on comprehension of salient traffic-related information presented on different parts of the dashboard and on the roads.

Keywords: Autonomous vehicles, driving simulation, eye gaze, attention, comprehension, take-over duration, take-over quality, time buffer.

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Authors: Yung-Yuan Chen, Kuen-Long Leu

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FlexRay, as a communication protocol for automotive control systems, is developed to fulfill the increasing demand on the electronic control units for implementing systems with higher safety and more comfort. In this work, we study the impact of radiation-induced soft errors on FlexRay-based steer-by-wire system. We injected the soft errors into general purpose register set of FlexRay nodes to identify the most critical registers, the failure modes of the steer-by-wire system, and measure the probability distribution of failure modes when an error occurs in the register file.

Keywords: Soft errors, FlexRay, fault injection, steer-by-wirer

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Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

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Hanging to the trapezoidal sheet by decking hanger is a very widespread solution used in civil engineering to lead the distribution of energy, sanitary, air distribution system etc. under the roof or floor structure. The trapezoidal decking hanger is usually a part of the whole installation system for specific distribution medium. The leading companies offer installation systems for each specific distribution e.g. pipe rings, sprinkler systems, installation channels etc. Every specific part is connected to the base connector which is decking hanger. The own connection has three main components: decking hanger, threaded bar with nuts and web of trapezoidal sheet. The aim of this contribution is determinate the failure mechanism of each component in connection. Load bearing capacity of most components in connection could be calculated by formulas in European codes. This contribution is focused on problematic of bearing resistance of threaded bar in web of trapezoidal sheet. This issue is studied by experimental research and numerical modelling. This contribution presented the initial results of experiment which is compared with numerical model of specimen.

Keywords: Decking hanger, concentrated load, connection, load bearing capacity, trapezoidal metal sheet.

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Authors: A. Alzeyadi, E. Loffill, R. Alkhaddar

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Continuous upflow filters can combine the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphate) and suspended solid removal in one unit process. The contaminant removal could be achieved chemically or biologically; in both processes the filter removal efficiency depends on the interaction between the packed filter media and the influent. In this paper a residence time distribution (RTD) study was carried out to understand and compare the transfer behaviour of contaminants through a selected filter media packed in a laboratory-scale continuous up flow filter; the selected filter media are limestone and white dolomite. The experimental work was conducted by injecting a tracer (red drain dye tracer –RDD) into the filtration system and then measuring the tracer concentration at the outflow as a function of time; the tracer injection was applied at hydraulic loading rates (HLRs) (3.8 to 15.2 m h-1). The results were analysed according to the cumulative distribution function F(t) to estimate the residence time of the tracer molecules inside the filter media. The mean residence time (MRT) and variance σ2 are two moments of RTD that were calculated to compare the RTD characteristics of limestone with white dolomite. The results showed that the exit-age distribution of the tracer looks better at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1) and (3.8 m h-1) for limestone and white dolomite respectively. At these HLRs the cumulative distribution function F(t) revealed that the residence time of the tracer inside the limestone was longer than in the white dolomite; whereas all the tracer took 8 minutes to leave the white dolomite at 3.8 m h-1. On the other hand, the same amount of the tracer took 10 minutes to leave the limestone at the same HLR. In conclusion, the determination of the optimal level of hydraulic loading rate, which achieved the better influent distribution over the filtration system, helps to identify the applicability of the material as filter media. Further work will be applied to examine the efficiency of the limestone and white dolomite for phosphate removal by pumping a phosphate solution into the filter at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1).

Keywords: Filter media, hydraulic loading rate, residence time distribution, tracer.

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Authors: Praveen Saraswat, Rudraman Singh

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In this paper, we have investigated the free convection MHD flow due to heat and mass transfer through porous medium bounded by an infinite vertical non-conducting porous plate with time dependent suction under the influence of uniform transverse magnetic field of strength H₀. When Temperature (T) and Concentration (C) at the plate is oscillatory with time about a constant non-zero mean. The velocity distribution, the temperature distribution, co-efficient of skin friction and role of heat transfer is investigated. Here the partial differential equations are involved. Exact solution is not possible so approximate solution is obtained and various graphs are plotted.

Keywords: Time Dependent Suction, Convection, MHD, Porous.

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Authors: Trevor N. Haas, Thomas van der Kolf

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South Africa has some regions which are susceptible to moderate seismic activity. A peak ground acceleration of between 0.1g and 0.15g can be expected in the southern parts of the Western Cape. Unreinforced Masonry (URM) is commonly used as a construction material for 2 to 5 storey buildings in underprivileged areas in and around Cape Town. URM is typically regarded as the material most vulnerable to damage when subjected to earthquake excitation. In this study, a three-storey URM building was analysed by applying seven earthquake time-histories, which can be expected to occur in South Africa using a finite element approach. Experimental data was used to calibrate the in- and out-of-plane stiffness of the URM. The results indicated that tensile cracking of the in-plane piers was the dominant failure mode. It is concluded that URM buildings of this type are at risk of failure especially if sufficient ductility is not provided. The results also showed that connection failure must be investigated further.

Keywords: URM, Seismic Analysis, FEM.

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Authors: Raj Kumar Samanta, Partha Bhattacharjee Gautam Sanyal

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In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the dropping probabilities of cellular wireless networks by queuing handoff instead of reserving guard channels. Usually, prioritized handling of handoff calls is done with the help of guard channel reservation. To evaluate the proposed model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered. Prevention of some of the attempted calls from reaching to the switching center due to electromagnetic propagation failure or whimsical user behaviour (missed call, prepaid balance etc.), make the inter-arrival time of the input traffic to follow gamma distribution. The performance is evaluated and compared with that of guard channel scheme.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, non-classical traffic, mathematicalmodel, guard channel, queuing, handoff.

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

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Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: Distribution Factors, Power System, Sensitivity Factors, Electricity Market.

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Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone

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Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.

Keywords: Digital Twin, Distribution System Operator, Electrical Distribution System, Smart Grid Controller, Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System, Smart Recursive Load Flow.

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