Search results for: Stochastic

Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

Abstract:

The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: Paola Lecca, Lorenzo Dematte, Corrado Priami

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The present models and simulation algorithms of intracellular stochastic kinetics are usually based on the premise that diffusion is so fast that the concentrations of all the involved species are homogeneous in space. However, recents experimental measurements of intracellular diffusion constants indicate that the assumption of a homogeneous well-stirred cytosol is not necessarily valid even for small prokaryotic cells. In this work a mathematical treatment of diffusion that can be incorporated in a stochastic algorithm simulating the dynamics of a reaction-diffusion system is presented. The movement of a molecule A from a region i to a region j of the space is represented as a first order reaction Ai k- ! Aj , where the rate constant k depends on the diffusion coefficient. The diffusion coefficients are modeled as function of the local concentration of the solutes, their intrinsic viscosities, their frictional coefficients and the temperature of the system. The stochastic time evolution of the system is given by the occurrence of diffusion events and chemical reaction events. At each time step an event (reaction or diffusion) is selected from a probability distribution of waiting times determined by the intrinsic reaction kinetics and diffusion dynamics. To demonstrate the method the simulation results of the reaction-diffusion system of chaperoneassisted protein folding in cytoplasm are shown.

Keywords: Reaction-diffusion systems, diffusion coefficient, stochastic simulation algorithm.

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

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The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: Area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling.

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Authors: Walid S. Alfuhaid, Saud A. Alghamdi, John M. Watkins, M. Edwin Sawan

Abstract:

Designing a controller for stochastic decentralized interconnected large scale systems usually involves a high degree of complexity and computation ability. Noise, observability, and controllability of all system states, connectivity, and channel bandwidth are other constraints to design procedures for distributed large scale systems. The quasi-steady state model investigated in this paper is a reduced order model of the original system using singular perturbation techniques. This paper results in an optimal control synthesis to design an observer based feedback controller by standard stochastic control theory techniques using Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) approach and Kalman filter design with less complexity and computation requirements. Numerical example is given at the end to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

Keywords: Decentralized, optimal control, output, singular perturb.

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

Abstract:

Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: Global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection.

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Authors: Nima Farkhondeh Jahromi, George Papaefthymiou, Lou van der Sluis

Abstract:

The incorporation of renewable energy sources for the sustainable electricity production is undertaking a more prominent role in electric power systems. Thus, it will be an indispensable incident that the characteristics of future power networks, their prospective stability for instance, get influenced by the imposed features of sustainable energy sources. One of the distinctive attributes of the sustainable energy sources is exhibiting the stochastic behavior. This paper investigates the impacts of this stochastic behavior on the small disturbance rotor angle stability in the upcoming electric power networks. Considering the various types of renewable energy sources and the vast variety of system configurations, the sensitivity analysis can be an efficient breakthrough towards generalizing the effects of new energy sources on the concept of stability. In this paper, the definition of small disturbance angle stability for future power systems and the iterative-stochastic way of its analysis are presented. Also, the effects of system parameters on this type of stability are described by performing a sensitivity analysis for an electric power test system.

Keywords: Power systems stability, Renewable energy sources, Stochastic behavior, Small disturbance rotor angle stability.

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Authors: Miljan B. Petrović, Dušan B. Petrović, Goran S. Nikolić

Abstract:

This paper describes a method for AWGN (Additive White Gaussian Noise) variance estimation in noisy stochastic signals, referred to as Multiplicative-Noising Variance Estimation (MNVE). The aim was to develop an estimation algorithm with minimal number of assumptions on the original signal structure. The provided MATLAB simulation and results analysis of the method applied on speech signals showed more accuracy than standardized AR (autoregressive) modeling noise estimation technique. In addition, great performance was observed on very low signal-to-noise ratios, which in general represents the worst case scenario for signal denoising methods. High execution time appears to be the only disadvantage of MNVE. After close examination of all the observed features of the proposed algorithm, it was concluded it is worth of exploring and that with some further adjustments and improvements can be enviably powerful.

Keywords: Noise, signal-to-noise ratio, stochastic signals, variance estimation.

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Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

Abstract:

We have conducted the optimal synthesis of rootmean- squared objective filter to estimate the state vector in the case if within the observation channel with memory the anomalous noises with unknown mathematical expectation are complement in the function of the regular noises. The synthesis has been carried out for linear stochastic systems of continuous - time.

Keywords: Mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory.

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Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW, and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: Attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, stochastic, seismic hazard.

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Authors: Myat Su Mon Win

Abstract:

The pseudorandom number generators based on linear feedback shift registers (LFSRs), are very quick, easy and secure in the implementation of hardware and software. Thus they are very popular and widely used. But LFSRs lead to fairly easy cryptanalysis due to their completely linearity properties. In this paper, we propose a stochastic generator, which is called Random Feedback Shift Register (RFSR), using stochastic transformation (Random block) with one-way and non-linearity properties.

Keywords: Linear Feedback Shift Register, Non Linearity, R_Block, Random Feedback Shift Register

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Authors: Turgay Temel, John Hallam

Abstract:

A recent neurospiking coding scheme for feature extraction from biosonar echoes of various plants is examined with avariety of stochastic classifiers. Feature vectors derived are employedin well-known stochastic classifiers, including nearest-neighborhood,single Gaussian and a Gaussian mixture with EM optimization.Classifiers' performances are evaluated by using cross-validation and bootstrapping techniques. It is shown that the various classifers perform equivalently and that the modified preprocessing configuration yields considerably improved results.

Keywords: Classification, neuro-spike coding, non-parametricmodel, parametric model, Gaussian mixture, EM algorithm.

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Authors: S. Chadsuthi, W. Triampo, C. Modchang, P. Kanthang, D. Triampo, N. Nuttavut

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We present analysis of spatial patterns of generic disease spread simulated by a stochastic long-range correlation SIR model, where individuals can be infected at long distance in a power law distribution. We integrated various tools, namely perimeter, circularity, fractal dimension, and aggregation index to characterize and investigate spatial pattern formations. Our primary goal was to understand for a given model of interest which tool has an advantage over the other and to what extent. We found that perimeter and circularity give information only for a case of strong correlation– while the fractal dimension and aggregation index exhibit the growth rule of pattern formation, depending on the degree of the correlation exponent (β). The aggregation index method used as an alternative method to describe the degree of pathogenic ratio (α). This study may provide a useful approach to characterize and analyze the pattern formation of epidemic spreading

Keywords: spatial pattern epidemics, aggregation index, fractaldimension, stochastic, long-rang epidemics

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Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

Abstract:

Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: Parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, Stochastic User Equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning.

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Authors: Yen-Po Wang, Ming-Chih Huang, Ming-Lian Chang

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A scheme integrated with deterministic–stochastic subspace system identification and the method of damage localization vector is proposed in this study for damage detection of structures based on seismic response data. A series of shaking table tests using a five-storey steel frame has been conducted in National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE), Taiwan. Damage condition is simulated by reducing the cross-sectional area of some of the columns at the bottom. Both single and combinations of multiple damage conditions at various locations have been considered. In the system identification analysis, either full or partial observation conditions have been taken into account. It has been shown that the damaged stories can be identified from global responses of the structure to earthquakes if sufficiently observed. In addition to detecting damage(s) with respect to the intact structure, identification of new or extended damages of the as-damaged (ill-conditioned) counterpart has also been studied. The proposed scheme proves to be effective.

Keywords: Damage locating vectors, deterministic-stochastic subspace system, shaking table tests, system identification.

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Authors: Xianqing Liu, Shouming Zhong, Lijiang Xiang

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In this paper, a stochastic predator-prey system with Bedding-DeAngelis functional response is studied. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov founction, sufficient conditions for species to be stochastically permanent is established. Meanwhile, we show that the species will become extinct with probability one if the noise is sufficiently large.

Keywords: Stochastically permanent, extinct, white noise, Bedding-DeAngelis functional response.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

Fading noise degrades the performance of cellular communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this paper utilized a Poisson modulated-weighted generalized Laguerre polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multidiversity stochastically local area fading channel when the channel consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering centers with a coherent Nakagami-distributed line of sight component and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.

Keywords: Cellular communication, femto- and pico-cells, stochastically local area fading channel, triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process.

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Authors: Athanasios T. Alexiou, Maria M. Psiha, John A. Rekkas, Panayiotis M. Vlamos

Abstract:

Mitochondria are dynamic organelles, capable to interact with each other. While the number of mitochondria in a cell varies, their quality and functionality depends on the operation of fusion, fission, motility and mitophagy. Nowadays, several researches declare as an important factor in neurogenerative diseases the disruptions in the regulation of mitochondrial dynamics. In this paper a stochastic model in BioAmbients calculus is presented, concerning mitochondrial fusion and its distribution in the renewal of mitochondrial population in a cell. This model describes the successive and dependent stages of protein synthesis, protein-s activation and merging of two independent mitochondria.

Keywords: Mitochondrial Dynamics, P-Calculus, StochasticModeling.

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Authors: T. T. Manikandan, Rajeev Sukumaran

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Coral Reefs are very important for the majority of marine ecosystems. But, such vital species are under major threat due to the factors such as ocean acidification, overfishing, and coral bleaching. To conserve the coral reefs, reef restoration activities are carried out across the world. After reef restoration, various parameters have to be monitored in order to ensure the overall effectiveness of the reef restoration. Underwater Wireless Sensor Network (UWSN) based  monitoring is widely adopted for such long monitoring activities. Since monitoring of coral reef restoration activities is time sensitive, the QoS guarantee offered by the network with respect to delay is vital. So this research focuses on the analytical modeling of network layer delay using Stochastic Network Calculus (SNC). The core focus of the proposed model will be on the analysis of stochastic dependencies between the network flow and deriving the stochastic delay bounds for the flows that traverse in tandem in UWSNs. The derived analytical bounds are evaluated for their effectiveness using discrete event simulations.

Keywords: Coral Reef Restoration, SNC, SFA, PMOO, Tandem of Queues, Delay Bound.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

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This paper studies the pth moment exponential synchronization of a class of stochastic neural networks with mixed delays. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, by establishing a new integrodifferential inequality with mixed delays, several sufficient conditions have been derived to ensure the pth moment exponential stability for the error system. The criteria extend and improve some earlier results. One numerical example is presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.

Keywords: pth Moment Exponential synchronization, Stochastic, Neural networks, Mixed time delays

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Authors: Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

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An important task in solving second order linear ordinary differential equations by the finite difference is to choose a suitable stepsize h. In this paper, by using the stochastic arithmetic, the CESTAC method and the CADNA library we present a procedure to estimate the optimal stepsize hopt, the stepsize which minimizes the global error consisting of truncation and round-off error.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations, optimal stepsize, error, stochastic arithmetic, CESTAC, CADNA.

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Authors: Siliang Wang, Minghui Wang, Jun Hu

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A novel path planning approach is presented to solve optimal path in stochastic, time-varying networks under priori traffic information. Most existing studies make use of dynamic programming to find optimal path. However, those methods are proved to be unable to obtain global optimal value, moreover, how to design efficient algorithms is also another challenge. This paper employs a decision theoretic framework for defining optimal path: for a given source S and destination D in urban transit network, we seek an S - D path of lowest expected travel time where its link travel times are discrete random variables. To solve deficiency caused by the methods of dynamic programming, such as curse of dimensionality and violation of optimal principle, an integer programming model is built to realize assignment of discrete travel time variables to arcs. Simultaneously, pruning techniques are also applied to reduce computation complexity in the algorithm. The final experiments show the feasibility of the novel approach.

Keywords: pruning method, stochastic, time-varying networks, optimal path planning.

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

Abstract:

Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: Perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: Hassan Manouzi

Abstract:

We present in this paper a useful strategy to solve stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) involving stochastic coefficients. Using the Wick-product of higher order and the Wiener-Itˆo chaos expansion, the SPDEs is reformulated as a large system of deterministic partial differential equations. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. To obtain the chaos coefficients in the corresponding deterministic equations, we use a least square formulation. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: Least squares, Wick product, SPDEs, finite element, Wiener chaos expansion, gradient method.

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Authors: Bassem Roushdy, Nahed Sobhy, Abdelrhim Abdelhamid, Ahmed Mahmoud

Abstract:

Most papers model Joint Replenishment Problem (JRP) as a (kT,S) where kT is a multiple value for a common review period T,and S is a predefined order up to level. In general the (T,S) policy is characterized by a long out of control period which requires a large amount of safety stock compared to the (R,Q) policy. In this paper a probabilistic model is built where an item, call it item(i), with the shortest order time between interval (T)is modeled under (R,Q) policy and its inventory is continuously reviewed, while the rest of items (j) are periodically reviewed at a definite time corresponding to item

Keywords: Inventory management, Joint replenishment, policy evaluation, stochastic process

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba (Jean-Pierre Dubois), Philip Jreije

Abstract:

Speckled images arise when coherent microwave, optical, and acoustic imaging techniques are used to image an object, surface or scene. Examples of coherent imaging systems include synthetic aperture radar, laser imaging systems, imaging sonar systems, and medical ultrasound systems. Speckle noise is a form of object or target induced noise that results when the surface of the object is Rayleigh rough compared to the wavelength of the illuminating radiation. Detection and estimation in images corrupted by speckle noise is complicated by the nature of the noise and is not as straightforward as detection and estimation in additive noise. In this work, we derive stochastic models for speckle noise, with an emphasis on speckle as it arises in medical ultrasound images. The motivation for this work is the problem of segmentation and tissue classification using ultrasound imaging. Modeling of speckle in this context involves partially developed speckle model where an underlying Poisson point process modulates a Gram-Charlier series of Laguerre weighted exponential functions, resulting in a doubly stochastic filtered Poisson point process. The statistical distribution of partially developed speckle is derived in a closed canonical form. It is observed that as the mean number of scatterers in a resolution cell is increased, the probability density function approaches an exponential distribution. This is consistent with fully developed speckle noise as demonstrated by the Central Limit theorem.

Keywords: Doubly stochastic filtered process, Poisson point process, segmentation, speckle, ultrasound

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Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

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This paper analyzes recent trends in cost efficiency of European cooperative banks using efficient frontier analysis. Our methodology is based on stochastic frontier analysis which is run on a set of 649 European cooperative banks using data between 2006 and 2015. Our results show that average inefficiency of European cooperative banks is increasing since 2008, smaller cooperative banks are significantly more efficient than the bigger ones over the whole time period and that share of net fee and commission income to total income surprisingly seems to have no impact on bank cost efficiency.

Keywords: Cooperative banks, cost efficiency, efficient frontier analysis, stochastic frontier analysis, net fee and commission income.

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Authors: Rosita Suhaimi, Firdaus Abdullah, Chong Fen Nee, Nurhani Aba Ibrahim

Abstract:

This paper attempts to identify the significance of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and competitiveness to the profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia. The profit efficiency of commercial banks in Malaysia, the dependent variable, was estimated using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) on a sample of unbalanced panel data, covering 23 commercial banks, between 1995 to 2007. Based on the empirical results, ICT was not found to exert a significant impact on profit efficiency, whereas competitiveness, non ICT stock expenditure and ownership were significant contributors. On the other hand, the size of banks was found to have significantly reduced profit efficiency, opening up for various interpretations of the interrelated role of ICT and competition.

Keywords: Competitiveness, Profit Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: Stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Salinee Thumronglaohapun

Abstract:

The proper number and appropriate locations of service centers can save cost, raise revenue and gain more satisfaction from customers. Establishing service centers is high-cost and difficult to relocate. In long-term planning periods, several factors may affect the service. One of the most critical factors is uncertain demand of customers. The opened service centers need to be capable of serving customers and making a profit although the demand in each period is changed. In this work, the capacitated location-allocation problem with stochastic demand is considered. A mathematical model is formulated to determine suitable locations of service centers and their allocation to maximize total profit for multiple planning periods. Two heuristic methods, a local search and genetic algorithm, are used to solve this problem. For the local search, five different chances to choose each type of moves are applied. For the genetic algorithm, three different replacement strategies are considered. The results of applying each method to solve numerical examples are compared. Both methods reach to the same best found solution in most examples but the genetic algorithm provides better solutions in some cases.

Keywords: Location-allocation problem, stochastic demand, local search, genetic algorithm.

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