Search results for: risk cost

Authors: Reza Sedaghati

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Given the increasing energy demand in the world as well as limited fossil energy fuel resources, it is necessary to use renewable energy resources more than ever. Developing a hybrid energy system is suggested to overcome the intermittence of renewable energy resources such as sun and wind, in which the excess electrical energy can be converted and stored. While these resources store the energy, they can provide a more reliable system that is really suitable for off-grid applications. In hybrid systems, a methodology for optimal sizing of power generation systems components is of great importance in terms of economic aspects and efficiency. In this study, a hybrid energy system is designed to supply an off-grid sample load pattern with the aim of supplying necessary energy and minimizing the total production cost throughout the system life as well as increasing the reliability. For this purpose, the optimal size and the cost function of these resources is determined and minimized using evolutionary algorithms and system efficiency is studied with real-time load and meteorological information of Kazerun, a city in southern Iran under different conditions.

Keywords: Hybrid energy system, intelligent method, optimal size, minimal.

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Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

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Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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Authors: Femi Elegbeleye, Seani Rananga

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This paper focused on cost effective storage architecture using fog and cloud data storage gateway, and presented the design of the framework for the data privacy model and data analytics framework on a real-time analysis when using machine learning method. The paper began with the system analysis, system architecture and its component design, as well as the overall system operations. Several results obtained from this study on data privacy models show that when two or more data privacy models are integrated via a fog storage gateway, we often have more secure data. Our main focus in the study is to design a framework for the data privacy model, data storage, and real-time analytics. This paper also shows the major system components and their framework specification. And lastly, the overall research system architecture was shown, including its structure, and its interrelationships.

Keywords: IoT, fog storage, cloud storage, data analysis, data privacy.

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Authors: Zainudin Arsad, Norul Baine Mat Johor

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Tourism industry is an important sector in Malaysia economy and this motivates the examination of long-run relationships between tourist arrivals from three selected European countries in Malaysia and four possible determinants; relative prices, exchange rates, transportation cost and relative prices of substitute destination. The study utilizes data from January 1999 to September 2008 and employs standard econometric techniques that include unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated demand model indicates that depreciation of local currency and increases in prices at substitute destination have positive impact on tourist arrivals while increase in transportation cost has negative impact on tourist arrivals. In addition, the model suggests that higher rate of increase in local prices relative to prices at tourist country of origin may not deter tourists from coming to Malaysia

Keywords: origin country, unit root test, cointegration test

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Authors: Ho-Jun Jo, Wook-Won Kim, Yong-Sung Kim, Jin-O Kim

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The application of ESS (Energy Storage Systems) in the future grids has been the solution of the microgrid. However, high investment costs necessitate accurate modeling and control strategy of ESS to justify its economic viability and further underutilization. Therefore, the reasonable control strategy for ESS which is subjected to generator and usage helps to curtail the cost of investment and operation costs. The rated frequency in power system is decreased when the load is increasing unexpectedly; hence the thermal power is operated at the capacity of only its 95% for the Governor Free (GF) to adjust the frequency as reserve (5%) in practice. The ESS can be utilized with governor at the same time for the frequency response due to characteristic of its fast response speed and moreover, the cost of ESS is declined rapidly to the reasonable price. This paper presents the ESS control strategy to extend usage of the ESS taken account into governor’s ramp rate and reduce the governor’s intervention as well. All results in this paper are simulated by MATLAB.

Keywords: Micro grid, energy storage systems, ramp rate, control strategy.

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Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

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Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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Authors: Hae-Yeoun Lee, In-Koo Kang, Heung-Kyu Lee

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This paper addresses an efficient technique to embed and detect digital fingerprint code. Orthogonal modulation method is a straightforward and widely used approach for digital fingerprinting but shows several limitations in computational cost and signal efficiency. Coded modulation method can solve these limitations in theory. However it is difficult to perform well in practice if host signals are not available during tracing colluders, other kinds of attacks are applied, and the size of fingerprint code becomes large. In this paper, we propose a hybrid modulation method, in which the merits of or-thogonal modulation and coded modulation method are combined so that we can achieve low computational cost and high signal efficiency. To analyze the performance, we design a new fingerprint code based on GD-PBIBD theory and modulate this code into images by our method using spread-spectrum watermarking on frequency domain. The results show that the proposed method can efficiently handle large fingerprint code and trace colluders against averaging attacks.

Keywords: Fingerprinting, GD-PBIBD theory, Hybrid modulationtechnique.

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Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, Sandeep HM, Biradar MS

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Essential hypertension (HTN) usually clusters with other cardiovascular risk factors such as age, overweight, diabetes, insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The target organ damage (TOD) such as left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria (MA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and cognitive dysfunction takes place early in course of hypertension. Though the prevalence of hypertension is high in India, the relationship between microalbuminuria and target organ damage in hypertension is not well studied. This study aim at detecting MA in essential hypertension and its relation to severity of HTN, duration of HTN, body mass index (BMI), age and TOD such as HTN retinopathy and acute coronary syndrome The present study was done in 100 patients of essential hypertension non diabetics admitted to B.L.D.E.University-s Sri B.M.Patil Medical College, Bijapur, from October 2008 to April 2011. The patients underwent detailed history and clinical examination. Early morning 5 ml of urine sample was collected & MA was estimated by immunoturbidometry method. The relationship of MA with the duration & severity of HTN, BMI, age, sex and TOD's like hypertensive retinopathy, ACS was assessed by univariate analysis. The prevalence of MA in this study was found to be 63 %. In that 42% were male & 21% were female. In this study a significant association between MA and the duration of hypertension (p = 0.036) & (OR =0.438). Longer the duration of hypertension, more possibility of microalbumin in urine. Also there was a significant association between severity of hypertension and MA (p=0.045) and (OR=0.093). MA was positive in 50 (79.4%) patients out of 63, whose blood pressure was >160/100 mm Hg. In this study a significant association between MA and the grades of hypertensive retinopathy (p =0.011) and acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.041) (OR =2.805). Gender and BMI did not pose high risk for MA in this study.The prevalence of MA in essential hypertension is high in this part of the community and MA will increase the risk of developing target organ damage.Early screening of patients with essential hypertension for MA and aggressive management of positive cases might reduce the burden of chronic kidney diseases and cardiovascular diseases in the community.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome, Essential hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Target organ damage

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Authors: A. A. K. Abou-Arab, M. A. Abou Donia, Sherif R. Mohamed, A. K. Enab

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Lead being a toxic heavy metal that mankind is exposed to the highest levels of this metal. There are different sources of environmental pollution with lead as lead alkyl additives in petrol and manufacturing processes. The contaminated atmosphere in urban and industrial areas by lead in Egypt may lead to the contamination of foods beside the other different sources. The present investigation studied the risk assessment of lead in some Egyptian edible vegetables and fruits collected from different environments in Greater Cairo Governorate, i.e. industrial, heavy traffic and rural areas. A total of 325 leafy and fruity vegetables and fruits samples belonging to 11, 6 and 4 different species, respectively were randomly collected from markets of the three main models. Data indicated the variation of lead levels in different three areas. The highest levels of lead were detected in the samples collected from industrial and traffic areas. However, the lowest levels were found in the rural areas. It could be concluded that determination of lead levels in foods from different localities and environments at regularly is very important.

Keywords: Heavy metals, Lead, Vegetables, Fruits, Environments.

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Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

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The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.

Keywords: Closed-loop design, closed-loop supply chain, design evaluation, mathematical model, supply chain management, sustainable design model.

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Authors: Ming Guan

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This paper proposes a simple model of economic geography within the Dixit-Stiglitz-Iceberg framework that may be used to analyze migration patterns among three cities. The cost–benefit tradeoffs affecting incentives for three types of migration, including echelon migration, are discussed. This paper develops a tractable, heterogeneous-agent, general equilibrium model, where agents share constant human capital, and explores the relationship between the benefits of echelon migration and gross human capital. Using Chinese numerical solutions, we study the manifestation of echelon migration and how it responds to changes in transportation cost and elasticity of substitution. Numerical results demonstrate that (i) there are positive relationships between a migration-s benefit-and-wage ratio, (ii) there are positive relationships between gross human capital ratios and wage ratios as to origin and destination, and (iii) we identify 13 varieties of human capital convergence among cities. In particular, this model predicts population shock resulting from the processes of migration choice and echelon migration.

Keywords: Dixit-Stiglitz-Iceberg framework, elasticity , echelonmigration, trade-off

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Authors: Ajay Verma, Nitin Seth

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In present days market environment, supply chains has to be competitive enough to handle pressures like varying customer’s expectations, low cost high quality products to be delivered at the minimum time and the most important is throat cutting competition at world wide scale. Recently, supply chain competitiveness has been, therefore, accepted as one of the most important philosophies in the supply chain literature. Various researchers and practitioners have tried to identify and implement enablers in supply chains which can bring competitiveness in the supply chains i.e. supply chain competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to suggest select enablers for supply chain competitiveness in the Indian manufacturing sector using an integrated approach of literature review and exploratory interviews with eminent professionals from the supply chain area in various industries, academia and research. The aim of the paper is to highlight the important enablers in the area of supply chain competitiveness and suggest recommendations to the industry and managers of manufacturing supply chains with a view to encourage more efforts in this wider domain area.

Keywords: Supply Chain Competitiveness, Supply Chain Collaboration, Coordination, Quality Management, Cost.

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Authors: Syuichi Kubota, Kayoko Yamamoto

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This study aims to identify the current situation and problems of environmental statement for major four home appliances (refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and television receivers) sold at online stores in Japan, and then to suggest how to improve the situation, through a questionnaire survey conducted among businesses that operate online stores and online malls with multiple online stores. Results of the study boil down to: (1) It is found out that environmental statement for the home appliances at online stores have four problems; (i) less information on “three Rs" and “chemical substances" than the one on “energy conservation", (ii) cost for providing environmental statement, (iii) issues associated with a label and mark placement, and (iv) issues associated with energy conservation statement. (2) Improvements are suggested for each of the four problems listed above, and shown are (i) the effectiveness of, and need to promote, a label and mark placement, (ii) cost burden on buyers, and (iii) need of active efforts made by businesses and of dissemination of legal regulations to businesses.

Keywords: Home Appliances, Environmentally-FriendlyProduct, Environmental Statement, Online Store, Japan.

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Authors: Omolola A. Tajelawi, Hari L. Garbharran

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Revenue leakages are one of the major challenges manufacturers face in production processes, as most of the input materials that should emanate as products from the lines are lost as waste. Rather than generating income from material input which is meant to end-up as products, losses are further incurred as costs in order to manage waste generated. In addition, due to the lack of a clear view of the flow of resources on the lines from input to output stage, acquiring information on the true cost of waste generated have become a challenge. This has therefore given birth to the conceptualization and implementation of waste minimization strategies by several manufacturing industries. This paper reviews the principles and applications of three environmental management accounting tools namely Activity-based Costing (ABC), Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Material Flow Cost Accounting (MFCA) in the manufacturing industry and their effectiveness in curbing revenue leakages. The paper unveils the strengths and limitations of each of the tools; beaming a searchlight on the tool that could allow for optimal resource utilization, transparency in production process as well as improved cost efficiency. Findings from this review reveal that MFCA may offer superior advantages with regards to the provision of more detailed information (both in physical and monetary terms) on the flow of material inputs throughout the production process compared to the other environmental accounting tools. This paper therefore makes a case for the adoption of MFCA as a viable technique for the identification and reduction of waste in production processes, and also for effective decision making by production managers, financial advisors and other relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: MFCA, environmental management accounting, resource efficiency, waste reduction, revenue losses.

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Authors: Narottam Chand

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Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) consist of number of tiny, low cost and low power sensor nodes to monitor some physical phenomenon. The major limitation in these networks is the use of non-rechargeable battery having limited power supply. The main cause of energy consumption in such networks is communication subsystem. This paper presents an energy efficient Cluster Cooperative Caching at Sensor (C3S) based upon grid type clustering. Sensor nodes belonging to the same cluster/grid form a cooperative cache system for the node since the cost for communication with them is low both in terms of energy consumption and message exchanges. The proposed scheme uses cache admission control and utility based data replacement policy to ensure that more useful data is retained in the local cache of a node. Simulation results demonstrate that C3S scheme performs better in various performance metrics than NICoCa which is existing cooperative caching protocol for WSNs.

Keywords: Cooperative caching, cache replacement, admission control, WSN, clustering.

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Authors: Penn P. Wu

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Recent advances in virtual reality (VR) technologies have made it possible for students to experience a virtual on-the-scene or virtual in-person observation of an educational event. In an experimental class, the author uses VR, particularly 360° videos, to virtually engage students in an event, through a wide spectrum of educational resources, such s a virtual “bystander.” Students were able to observe the event as if they were physically on site, although they could not intervene with the scene. The author will describe the adopted equipment, specification, and cost of building them as well as the quality of VR. The author will discuss (a) feasibility, effectiveness, and efficiency of using VR as a supplemental technology to teach college students and criteria and methodologies used by the authors to evaluate them; (b) barriers and issues of technological implementation; and (c) pedagogical practices learned through this experiment. The author also attempts to explore (a) how VR could provide an interactive virtual in-person learning experience; (b) how VR can possibly change traditional college education and online education; (c) how educators and balance six critical factors: cost, time, technology, quality, result, and content.

Keywords: Learning with VR, virtual experience of learning, virtual in-person learning, virtual reality for education.

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Authors: Amos Barkai, Guy Meredith, Fatima Felaar, Zahrah Dantie, Dave de Buys

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Fisheries management all around the world is hampered by the lack, or poor quality, of critical data on fish resources and fishing operations. The main reasons for the chronic inability to collect good quality data during fishing operations is the culture of secrecy common among fishers and the lack of modern data gathering technology onboard most fishing vessels. In response, OLRAC-SPS, a South African company, developed fisheries datalogging software (eLog in short) and named it Olrac. The Olrac eLog solution is capable of collecting, analysing, plotting, mapping, reporting, tracing and transmitting all data related to fishing operations. Olrac can be used by skippers, fleet/company managers, offshore mariculture farmers, scientists, observers, compliance inspectors and fisheries management authorities. The authors believe that using eLog onboard fishing vessels has the potential to revolutionise the entire process of data collection and reporting during fishing operations and, if properly deployed and utilised, could transform the entire commercial fleet to a provider of good quality data and forever change the way fish resources are managed. In addition it will make it possible to trace catches back to the actual individual fishing operation, to improve fishing efficiency and to dramatically improve control of fishing operations and enforcement of fishing regulations.

Keywords: data management, electronic logbook (eLog), electronic reporting system (ERS), fisheries management

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Authors: Muammer Ozkan, Orkun Ozener, Irfan Yavasliol

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The fuel cost of the motor vehicle operating on its common route is an important part of the operating cost. Therefore, the importance of the fuel saving is increasing day by day. One of the parameters which improve fuel saving is the regulation of driving characteristics. The number and duration of stop is increased by the heavy traffic load. It is possible to improve the fuel saving with regulation of traffic flow and driving characteristics. The researches show that the regulation of the traffic flow decreases fuel consumption, but it is not enough to improve fuel saving without the regulation of driving characteristics. This study analyses the fuel consumption of two trips of city bus operating on its common route and determines the effect of traffic density and driving characteristics on fuel consumption. Finally it offers some suggestions about regulation of driving characteristics to improve the fuel saving. Fuel saving is determined according to the results obtained from simulation program. When experimental and simulation results are compared, it has been found that the fuel saving was reached up the to 40 percent ratios.

Keywords: Fuel Consumption, Fuel Economy, Driving Characteristics, Optimization

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Authors: Dong-Chul Lee, Byung-Kwan Oh, Se-Woon Choi, Hyo-Sun Park

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The unanticipated brittle fracture of connection of the steel moment resisting frame (SMRF) occurred in 1994 the Northridge earthquake. Since then, the researches for the vulnerability of connection of the existing SMRF and for rehabilitation of those buildings were conducted. This paper suggests performance-based optimal seismic retrofit technique using connection upgrade. For optimal design, a multi-objective genetic algorithm(NSGA-II) is used. One of the two objective functions is to minimize initial cost and another objective function is to minimize lifetime seismic damages cost. The optimal algorithm proposed in this paper is performed satisfying specified performance objective based on FEMA 356. The nonlinear static analysis is performed for structural seismic performance evaluation. A numerical example of SAC benchmark SMRF is provided using the performance-based optimal seismic retrofit technique proposed in this paper

Keywords: connection upgrade, performace-based seismicdesign, seismic retrofit, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

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Information regarding early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Proven was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male was possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance.

Keywords: Early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative.

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Authors: Liang Hua, Yi Wen

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This evaluation of land supply system performance in China shall examine the combination of government functions and national goals in order to perform a cost-benefit analysis of system results. From the author's point of view, it is most productive to evaluate land supply system performance at moments of system transformation for the following reasons. The behavior and input-output change of beneficial results at different times can be observed when the system or policy changes and system performance can be evaluated through a cost-benefit analysis during the process of system transformation. Moreover, this evaluation method can avoid the influence of land resource endowment. Different land resource endowment methods and different economy development periods result in different systems. This essay studies the contents, principles and methods of land supply system performance evaluation. Taking Beijing as an example, this essay optimizes and classifies the land supply index, makes a quantitative evaluation of land supply system performance through principal component analysis (PCA), and finally analyzes the factors that influence land supply system performance at times of system transformation.

Keywords: Land supply, System performance, System transformation

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Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

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The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: Direct voice input, risk, security, technology and trust.

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Authors: Sittichai Charoensettasilp, Chong Wu

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This study employs sampling of 400 Thai people who live in Bangkok and have used air transportation to travel. A random convenience sampling technique is used to collect data. The results found that at 0.05 significance level the differences of means of Thai consumers’ expectations (before) and satisfaction (after) receiving services in the service marketing mix, the results of all aspects are different both in general and for each aspect of the service marketing mix. Average levels of expectations before receiving services are higher than satisfaction after receiving services in all aspects, as well. When analyzing further to the correlation between average means, the means of expectations before receiving services are higher than those of satisfaction after receiving services in general. As in all aspects of the service marketing mix, any aspect that has a big difference between expectations before receiving services and satisfaction after receiving services has low correlation.

Keywords: Domestic Low-Cost Airlines, Expectation Before Receiving Services, Relationship, Satisfaction After Receiving Services, Thai Consumers.

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Authors: Pooja, Megha Kulshrestha, V. K. Banga, Parvinder S. Sandhu

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To support mobility in ATM networks, a number of technical challenges need to be resolved. The impact of handoff schemes in terms of service disruption, handoff latency, cost implications and excess resources required during handoffs needs to be addressed. In this paper, a one phase handoff and route optimization solution using reserved PVCs between adjacent ATM switches to reroute connections during inter-switch handoff is studied. In the second phase, a distributed optimization process is initiated to optimally reroute handoff connections. The main objective is to find the optimal operating point at which to perform optimization subject to cost constraint with the purpose of reducing blocking probability of inter-switch handoff calls for delay tolerant traffic. We examine the relation between the required bandwidth resources and optimization rate. Also we calculate and study the handoff blocking probability due to lack of bandwidth for resources reserved to facilitate the rapid rerouting.

Keywords: Wireless ATM, Mobility, Latency, Optimization rateand Blocking Probability.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Iskandar Ishak, Naomie Salim

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Unstructured peer-to-peer networks are popular due to its robustness and scalability. Query schemes that are being used in unstructured peer-to-peer such as the flooding and interest-based shortcuts suffer various problems such as using large communication overhead long delay response. The use of routing indices has been a popular approach for peer-to-peer query routing. It helps the query routing processes to learn the routing based on the feedbacks collected. In an unstructured network where there is no global information available, efficient and low cost routing approach is needed for routing efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel mechanism for query-feedback oriented routing indices to achieve routing efficiency in unstructured network at a minimal cost. The approach also applied information retrieval technique to make sure the content of the query is understandable and will make the routing process not just based to the query hits but also related to the query content. Experiments have shown that the proposed mechanism performs more efficient than flood-based routing.

Keywords: Unstructured peer-to-peer, Searching, Retrieval, Internet.

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Authors: Rafia Hassan, Ali Rizwan, Sadaf Farhan, Bushra Sabir

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The purpose of this study is to compare the conventional crop monitoring system with the satellite based crop monitoring system in Pakistan. This study is conducted for SUPARCO (Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission). The study focused on the wheat crop, as it is the main cash crop of Pakistan and province of Punjab. This study will answer the following: Which system is better in terms of cost, time and man power? The man power calculated for Punjab CRS is: 1,418 personnel and for SUPARCO: 26 personnel. The total cost calculated for SUPARCO is almost 13.35 million and CRS is 47.705 million. The man hours calculated for CRS (Crop Reporting Service) are 1,543,200 hrs (136 days) and man hours for SUPARCO are 8, 320hrs (40 days). It means that SUPARCO workers finish their work 96 days earlier than CRS workers. The results show that the satellite based crop monitoring system is efficient in terms of manpower, cost and time as compared to the conventional system, and also generates early crop forecasts and estimations. The research instruments used included: Interviews, physical visits, group discussions, questionnaires, study of reports and work flows. A total of 93 employees were selected using Yamane’s formula for data collection, which is done with the help questionnaires and interviews. Comparative graphing is used for the analysis of data to formulate the results of the research. The research findings also demonstrate that although conventional methods have a strong impact still in Pakistan (for crop monitoring) but it is the time to bring a change through technology, so that our agriculture will also be developed along modern lines.

Keywords: Crop reporting service, SRS/GIS, satellite remote sensing/geographic information system, area frame, sample frame.

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Authors: A. Mavrikos, N. Petsas, E. Kaltsi, D. Kaliampakos

Abstract:

The lignite-fired power plants in the Western Macedonia Lignite Center produce more than 810⁶ t of fly ash per year. Approximately 90% of this quantity is used for restoration-reclamation of exhausted open-cast lignite mines and slope stabilization of the overburden. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the environmental behavior of the mixture of waste rock and fly ash that is being used in the external deposition site of the South Field lignite mine. For this reason, a borehole was made within the site and 86 samples were taken and subjected to chemical analyses and leaching tests. The results showed very limited leaching of trace elements and heavy metals from this mixture. Moreover, when compared to the limit values set for waste acceptable in inert waste landfills, only few excesses were observed, indicating only minor risk for groundwater pollution. However, due to the complexity of both the leaching process and the contaminant pathway, more boreholes and analyses should be made in nearby locations and a systematic groundwater monitoring program should be implemented both downstream and within the external deposition site.

Keywords: Co-deposition, fly ash, leaching tests, lignite, waste rock.

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Authors: S. P. Singh

Abstract:

This paper measures technical and scale efficiencies of 40 Indian sugar companies for the period from 2004-05 to 2013-14. The efficiencies are estimated through input-oriented DEA models using one output variable—value of output (VOP) and five input variables—capital cost (CA), employee cost (EMP), raw material (RW), energy & fuel (E&F) and other manufacturing expenses (OME). The sugar companies are classified into integrated and non-integrated categories to know which one achieves higher level of efficiency. Sources of inefficiency in the industry are identified through decomposing the overall technical efficiency (TE) into pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). The paper also estimates input-reduction targets for relatively inefficient companies and suggests measures to improve their efficiency level. The findings reveal that the TE does not evince any trend rather it shows fluctuations across years, largely due to erratic and cyclical pattern of sugar production. Further, technical inefficiency in the industry seems to be driven more by the managerial inefficiency than the scale inefficiency, which implies that TE can be improved through better conversion of inputs into output.

Keywords: Sugar industry, companies, technical efficiency, data envelopment analysis, targets.

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Authors: Irina Pyrlina

Abstract:

This article presents the results of a study conducted to identify operational risks for information systems (IS) with service-oriented architecture (SOA). Analysis of current approaches to risk and system error classifications revealed that the system error classes were never used for SOA risk estimation. Additionally system error classes are not normallyexperimentally supported with realenterprise error data. Through the study several categories of various existing error classifications systems are applied and three new error categories with sub-categories are identified. As a part of operational risks a new error classification scheme is proposed for SOA applications. It is based on errors of real information systems which are service providers for application with service-oriented architecture. The proposed classification approach has been used to classify SOA system errors for two different enterprises (oil and gas industry, metal and mining industry). In addition we have conducted a research to identify possible losses from operational risks.

Keywords: Enterprise architecture, Error classification, Oil&Gas and Metal&Mining industries, Operational risks, Serviceoriented architecture

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