Search results for: credit risk

Authors: T. S. Shashikumar

Abstract:

Radon is a radioactive gas emitted from radium, a daughter product of uranium that occurs naturally in rocks and soil. Radon, together with its decay products, emits alpha particles that can damage lung tissue. The activity concentration of ²²²Ra has been analyzed in water samples collected from borewells and rivers in and around Hassan city, Karnataka State, India. The measurements were performed by Emanometry technique. The concentration of ²²²Rn in borewell waters varies from 18.49±1.89 to 397.26±12.3 Bql^-1 with geometric mean 120.48±12.87 Bql^-1 and in river waters it varies from 92.63±9.31 to 93.98±9.51 Bql^-1 with geometric mean of 93.16±9.33 Bql^-1. In the present study, the radon concentrations are higher in Adarshanagar and Viveka Nagar which are found to be 397.26±12.3 Bql^-1 and 325.78±32.56 Bql^-1. Most of the analysed samples show a ²²²Rn concentration more than 100 Bql^-1 and this can be attributed to the geology of the area where the ground waters are located, which is predominantly of granitic characteristic. The average inhalation dose and ingestion dose in the borewell water are found to be 0.405 and 0.033 µSvy^-1; and in river water it is found to be 0.234 and 0.019 µSvy^-1, respectively. The average total effective dose rate in borewell waters and river waters are found to be 0.433 and 0.253 µSvy^-1, which does not cause any health risk to the population of Hassan region.

Keywords: Borewell, effective dose, emanometry, 222Rn.

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, Maturity Model, Systems Theory, Viable System Model.

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Authors: Donatien Callon, Ian Lalonde, Mathieu Nadeau, Alexandre Girard

Abstract:

Patient transfer is a challenging, critical task because it exposes caregivers to injury risks. Available transfer devices, like floor lifts, lead to improvements but are far from perfect. They do not eliminate the caregivers’ risk of musculoskeletal disorders, and they can be burdensome to use due to their poor maneuverability. This paper presents a motorized floor lift with a single central motorized wheel connected to an instrumented handle. Admittance controllers are designed to 1) improve the device maneuverability, 2) reduce the required caregiver effort, and 3) ensure the security and comfort of patients. Two controller designs, one with a linear admittance law and a non-linear admittance law with variable damping, were developed and implemented on a prototype. Tests were performed on seven participants to evaluate the performance of the assistance system and the controllers. The experimental results show that 1) the motorized assistance with the variable damping controller improves maneuverability by 28%, 2) reduces the amount of effort required to push the lift by 66% and 3) provides the same level of patient comfort compared to a standard unassisted floor lift.

Keywords: Floor lift, human robot interaction, admittance controller, variable admittance.

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Authors: Hadj Brahim Mounia, Belhamel Farid, Souici Messoud

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In big cities, construction on sloping land (landslide) is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the unavailability of flat lands. This has created a major challenge for structural engineers with regard to structure design, due to the difficulties encountered during the implementation of projects, both for the structure and the soil. This paper analyses the effect of the number of floors of a building, founded on isolated footing on the stability of the slope using the computer code finite element PLAXIS 2D v. 8.2. The isolated footings of a building in this case were anchored in soil so that the levels of successive isolated footing realize a maximum slope of base of three for two heights, which connects the edges of the nearest footings, according to the Algerian building code DTR-BC 2.331: Shallow foundations. The results show that the embedment of the foundation into the soil reduces the value of the safety factor due to the change of the stress state of the soil by these foundations. The number of floors a building has also influences the safety factor. It has been noticed from this case of study that there is no risk of collapse of slopes for an inclination between 5° and 8°. In the case of slope inclination greater than 10° it has been noticed that the urbanization is prohibited.

Keywords: Building, collapse, factor of safety, isolated footing, PLAXIS 2D, slope.

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Authors: Gopi Kandaswamy, P. Balamuralidhar

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Fully autonomous small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly being used in many commercial applications. Although a lot of research has been done to develop safe, reliable and durable UAVs, accidents due to electronic and structural failures are not uncommon and pose a huge safety risk to the UAV operators and the public. Hence there is a strong need for an automated health monitoring system for UAVs with a view to minimizing mission failures thereby increasing safety. This paper describes our approach to monitoring the electronic and structural components in a small UAV without the need for additional sensors to do the monitoring. Our system monitors data from four sources; sensors, navigation algorithms, control inputs from the operator and flight controller outputs. It then does statistical analysis on the data and applies a rule based engine to detect failures. This information can then be fed back into the UAV and a decision to continue or abort the mission can be taken automatically by the UAV and independent of the operator. Our system has been verified using data obtained from real flights over the past year from UAVs of various sizes that have been designed and deployed by us for various applications.

Keywords: Fault detection, health monitoring, unmanned aerial vehicles, vibration analysis.

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Authors: M.A. Lazim, M. Suriani

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Knowing consumers' preferences and perceptions of the sensory evaluation of drink products are very significant to manufacturers and retailers alike. With no appropriate sensory analysis, there is a high risk of market disappointment. This paper aims to rank the selected coffee products and also to determine the best of quality attribute through sensory evaluation using fuzzy decision making model. Three products of coffee drinks were used for sensory evaluation. Data were collected from thirty judges at a hypermarket in Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. The judges were asked to specify their sensory evaluation in linguistic terms of the quality attributes of colour, smell, taste and mouth feel for each product and also the weight of each quality attribute. Five fuzzy linguistic terms represent the quality attributes were introduced prior analysing. The judgment membership function and the weights were compared to rank the products and also to determine the best quality attribute. The product of Indoc was judged as the first in ranking and 'taste' as the best quality attribute. These implicate the importance of sensory evaluation in identifying consumers- preferences and also the competency of fuzzy approach in decision making.

Keywords: fuzzy decision making, fuzzy linguistic, membership function, sensory evaluation,

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Authors: J. A. Batsis, G. G. Boateng, L. M. Seo, C. L. Petersen, K. L. Fortuna, E. V. Wechsler, R. J. Peterson, S. B. Cook, D. Pidgeon, R. S. Dokko, R. J. Halter, D. F. Kotz

Abstract:

Resistance exercise bands are a core component of any physical activity strengthening program. Strength training can mitigate the development of sarcopenia, the loss of muscle mass or strength and function with aging. Yet, the adherence of such behavioral exercise strategies in a home-based setting are fraught with issues of monitoring and compliance. Our group developed a Bluetooth-enabled resistance exercise band capable of transmitting data to an open-source platform. In this work, we developed an application to capture this information in real-time, and conducted three usability studies in two mixed-aged groups of participants (n=6 each) and a group of older adults with obesity participating in a weight-loss intervention (n=20). The system was favorable, acceptable and provided iterative information that could assist in future deployment on ubiquitous platforms. Our formative work provides the foundation to deliver home-based monitoring interventions in a high-risk, older adult population.

Keywords: Application, mHealth, older adult, resistance exercise band, sarcopenia.

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront: (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: A. M. Metak, T. T. Ajaal

Abstract:

Commercial nanocomposite food packaging type nano-silver containers were characterised using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). The presence of nanoparticles consistent with the incorporation of 1% nano-silver (Ag) and 0.1% titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticle into polymeric materials formed into food containers was confirmed. Both nanomaterials used in this type of packaging appear to be embedded in a layered configuration within the bulk polymer. The dimensions of the incorporated nanoparticles were investigated using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and determined by calculation using the Scherrer Formula; these were consistent with Ag and TiO₂ nanoparticles in the size range 20-70nm both were spherical shape nanoparticles. Antimicrobial assessment of the nanocomposite container has also been performed and the results confirm the antimicrobial activity of Ag and TiO₂ nanoparticles in food packaging containers. Migration assessments were performed in a wide range of food matrices to determine the migration of nanoparticles from the packages. The analysis was based upon the relevant European safety Directives and involved the application of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to identify the range of migration risk. The data pertain to insignificance levels of migration of Ag and TiO₂ nanoparticles into the selected food matrices.

Keywords: Nano-silver, antimicrobial food packaging, migration, titanium dioxide.

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Authors: Natasha Hussain, Maleeha Aslam, Robina Farooq

Abstract:

Hepatitis B and hepatitis C are among the most significant hepatic infections all around the world that may lead to hepatocellular carcinoma. This study is first time performed at the blood transfussion centre of Omar hospital, Lahore. It aims to determine the sero-prevalence of these diseases by screening the apparently healthy blood donors who might be the carriers of HBV or HCV and pose a high risk in the transmission. It also aims the comparison between the sensitivity of two diagnostic tests; chromatographic immunoassay – one step test device and Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbant Assay (ELISA). Blood serum of 855 apparently healthy blood donors was screened for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and for anti HCV antibodies. SPSS version 12.0 and X2 (Chi-square) test were used for statistical analysis. The seroprevalence of HCV was 8.07% by the device method and by ELISA 9.12% and that of HBV was 5.6% by the device and 6.43% by ELISA. The unavailability of vaccination against HCV makes it more prevalent. Comparing the two diagnostic methods, ELISA proved to be more sensitive.

Keywords: ELISA, Sensitivity comparison of diagnostic tests, seroprevalence of Hepatitis B and C

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Authors: M. Kosandi, V. Susanti, N. I. Subono, E. Kartini

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This paper discusses the risk of glorification trap in combating human trafficking, as it is shown in the case of Indonesia. Based on a research on Indonesian combat against trafficking in 2017-2018, this paper shows the tendency of misinterpretation and misapplication of the Indonesian anti-trafficking law into misusing the law for glorification, to create an image of certain extent of achievement in combating human trafficking. The objective of this paper is to explain the persistent occurrence of human trafficking crimes despite the significant progress of anti-trafficking efforts of Indonesian government. The research was conducted in 2017-2018 by qualitative approach through observation, depth interviews, discourse analysis, and document study, applying the three-dimensional model for analyzing human trafficking in the source country. This paper argues that the drive for glorification of achievement in the combat against trafficking has trapped Indonesian government in the loop of misinterpretation, misapplication, and misuse of the anti-trafficking law. In return, the so-called crime against humanity remains high and tends to increase in Indonesia.

Keywords: Human trafficking, anti-trafficking policy, transnational crime, source country, glorification trap.

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: Minky Son, Chanin Park, Ayoung Baek, Shalini John, Keun Woo Lee

Abstract:

3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGR) catalyzes the conversion of HMG-CoA to mevalonate using NADPH and the enzyme is involved in rate-controlling step of mevalonate. Inhibition of HMGR is considered as effective way to lower cholesterol levels so it is drug target to treat hypercholesterolemia, major risk factor of cardiovascular disease. To discover novel HMGR inhibitor, we performed structure-based pharmacophore modeling combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Four HMGR inhibitors were used for MD simulation and representative structure of each simulation were selected by clustering analysis. Four structure-based pharmacophore models were generated using the representative structure. The generated models were validated used in virtual screening to find novel scaffolds for inhibiting HMGR. The screened compounds were filtered by applying drug-like properties and used in molecular docking. Finally, four hit compounds were obtained and these complexes were refined using energy minimization. These compounds might be potential leads to design novel HMGR inhibitor.

Keywords: Anti-hypercholesterolemia drug, HMGR inhibitor, Molecular dynamics simulation, Structure-based pharmacophore modeling.

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Authors: D. Subedi, S. Pradhan

Abstract:

Current transformers are an integral part of power system because it provides a proportional safe amount of current for protection and measurement applications. However, when the power system experiences an abnormal situation leading to huge current flow, then this huge current is proportionally injected to the protection and metering circuit. Since the protection and metering equipment’s are designed to withstand only certain amount of current with respect to time, these high currents pose a risk to man and equipment. Therefore, during such instances, the CT saturation characteristics have a huge influence on the safety of both man and equipment and on the reliability of the protection and metering system. This paper shows the effect of burden on the Accuracy Limiting factor/ Instrument security factor of current transformers and the change in saturation characteristics of the CT’s. The response of the CT to varying levels of overcurrent at different connected burden will be captured using the data acquisition software LabVIEW. Analysis is done on the real time data gathered using LabVIEW. Variation of current transformer saturation characteristics with changes in burden will be discussed.

Keywords: Accuracy limiting factor, burden, current transformer, instrument security factor, saturation characteristics.

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Authors: Y. Lu, X. S. Qin

Abstract:

Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.

Keywords: Rainfall disaggregation, statistical properties, poisson processed, Bartlett-Lewis model, Neyman-Scott model.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, O. M. Abdul-Latif

Abstract:

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool that was initially developed by Vapnik in 1979 and later developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). SVM is playing an increasing role in applications to detection problems in various engineering problems, notably in statistical signal processing, pattern recognition, image analysis, and communication systems. In this paper, SVM was applied to the detection of medical ultrasound images in the presence of partially developed speckle noise. The simulation was done for single look and multi-look speckle models to give a complete overlook and insight to the new proposed model of the SVM-based detector. The structure of the SVM was derived and applied to clinical ultrasound images and its performance in terms of the mean square error (MSE) metric was calculated. We showed that the SVM-detected ultrasound images have a very low MSE and are of good quality. The quality of the processed speckled images improved for the multi-look model. Furthermore, the contrast of the SVM detected images was higher than that of the original non-noisy images, indicating that the SVM approach increased the distance between the pixel reflectivity levels (detection hypotheses) in the original images.

Keywords: LS-SVM, medical ultrasound imaging, partially developed speckle, multi-look model.

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Authors: Samera Salimpour Abkenar

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In traditional dyeing of natural fibers with natural dyes, metal salts are commonly used to increase color stability. This method always carries the risk of environmental pollution (contamination of arable soils and fresh groundwater) due to the release of dyeing effluents containing large amounts of metal. Therefore, researchers are always looking for new methods to obtain a green dyeing system. In this research, the use of the enzymatic dyeing method to prevent environmental pollution with metals and reduce production costs has been proposed. After degumming and bleaching, raw silk fabrics were dyed with natural dyes (Madder and Sumac) by three methods (pre-mordanting with a metal salt, one-step enzymatic dyeing, and two-step enzymatic dyeing). Results show that silk dyed with natural dyes by the enzymatic method has higher color strength and colorfastness than the pretreated with a metal salt. Also, the amount of remained dyes in the dyeing wastewater is significantly reduced by the enzymatic method. It is found that the enzymatic dyeing method leads to improvement of dye absorption, color strength, soft hand, no change in color shade, low production costs (due to low dyeing temperature), and a significant reduction in environmental pollution.

Keywords: Eco-friendly, natural dyes, silk, traditional dyeing.

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Authors: Nasser M. Amaitik, Nabil A. Alfagi

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The world-s largest Pre-stressed Concrete Cylinder Pipe (PCCP) water supply project had a series of pipe failures which occurred between 1999 and 2001. This has led the Man-Made River Authority (MMRA), the authority in charge of the implementation and operation of the project, to setup a rehabilitation plan for the conveyance system while maintaining the uninterrupted flow of water to consumers. At the same time, MMRA recognized the need for a long term management tool that would facilitate repair and maintenance decisions and enable taking the appropriate preventive measures through continuous monitoring and estimation of the remaining life of each pipe. This management tool is known as the Pipe Risk Management System (PRMS) and now in operation at MMRA. Both the rehabilitation plan and the PRMS require the availability of complete and accurate pipe construction and manufacturing data This paper describes a systematic approach of data collection, analysis, evaluation and correction for the construction and manufacturing data files of phase I pipes which are the platform for the PRMS database and any other related decision support system.

Keywords: Asbuilt, History, IMD, MMRA, PDBMS & PRMS

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Authors: J. P. Dubois, O. M. Abdul-Latif

Abstract:

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a statistical learning tool that was initially developed by Vapnik in 1979 and later developed to a more complex concept of structural risk minimization (SRM). SVM is playing an increasing role in applications to detection problems in various engineering problems, notably in statistical signal processing, pattern recognition, image analysis, and communication systems. In this paper, SVM was applied to the detection of SAR (synthetic aperture radar) images in the presence of partially developed speckle noise. The simulation was done for single look and multi-look speckle models to give a complete overlook and insight to the new proposed model of the SVM-based detector. The structure of the SVM was derived and applied to real SAR images and its performance in terms of the mean square error (MSE) metric was calculated. We showed that the SVM-detected SAR images have a very low MSE and are of good quality. The quality of the processed speckled images improved for the multi-look model. Furthermore, the contrast of the SVM detected images was higher than that of the original non-noisy images, indicating that the SVM approach increased the distance between the pixel reflectivity levels (the detection hypotheses) in the original images.

Keywords: Least Square-Support Vector Machine, SyntheticAperture Radar. Partially Developed Speckle, Multi-Look Model.

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Authors: Ming Ling Lai, Zalilawati Yaacob, Normah Omar, Norashikin Abdul Aziz, Bee Wah Yap

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This paper aims to (1) analyze the profiles of transgressors (detected evaders); (2) examine reason(s) that triggered a tax audit, causes of tax evasion, audit timeframe and tax penalty charged; and (3) to assess if tax auditors followed the guidelines as stated in the 'Tax Audit Framework' when conducting tax audits. In 2011, the Inland Revenue Board Malaysia (IRBM) had audited and finalized 557 company cases. With official permission, data of all the 557 cases were obtained from the IRBM. Of these, a total of 421 cases with complete information were analyzed. About 58.1% was small and medium corporations and from the construction industry (32.8%). The selection for tax audit was based on risk analysis (66.8%), information from third party (11.1%), and firm with low profitability or fluctuating profit pattern (7.8%). The three persistent causes of tax evasion by firms were over claimed expenses (46.8%), fraudulent reporting of income (38.5%) and overstating purchases (10.5%). These findings are consistent with past literature. Results showed that tax auditors took six to 18 months to close audit cases. More than half of tax evaders were fined 45% on additional tax raised during audit for the first offence. The study found tax auditors did follow the guidelines in the 'Tax Audit Framework' in audit selection, settlement and penalty imposition.

Keywords: Corporate tax fraud, tax non-compliance, tax evasion, tax audit, fraudulent reporting.

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Authors: Mojahid F. Saeed Osman

Abstract:

Repairable items inventory system is a management tool used to incorporate all information concerning inventory levels and movements for repaired and new items. This paper presents development of an effective simulation model for managing the inventory of repairable items for a production system where production lines send their faulty items to a repair shop considering the stochastic failure behavior and repair times. The developed model imitates the process of handling the on-hand inventory of repaired items and the replenishment of the inventory of new items using Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy in a flexible and risk-free environment. We demonstrate the appropriateness and effectiveness of the proposed simulation model using an illustrative case problem. The developed simulation model can be used as a reliable tool for estimating a healthy on-hand inventory of new and repaired items, backordered items, and downtime due to unavailability of repaired items, and validating and examining Economic Order Quantity and Reorder Point ordering policy, which would further be compared with other ordering strategies as future work.

Keywords: Inventory system, repairable items, simulation, maintenance, economic order quantity, reorder point.

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Authors: I Made Darmayuda, Zhou Jun, Krishna Mainali, Simon Ng Sheung Yan, Saisundar S, Eran Ofek

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Personnel protection devices are cardinal in safety hazard applications. They are widely used in home, office and in industry environments to reduce the risk of lethal shock to human being and equipment safety. This paper briefly reviews various personnel protection devices also describes the basic working principle of conventional ground fault circuit interrupter (GFCI) or ground fault isolator (GFI), its disadvantages and ways to overcome the disadvantages with solid-state relay (SSR) based GFI with ultrafast response up on fault implemented in printed circuit board. This solid state GFI comprises discrete MOSFET based alternating current (AC) switches, linear optical amplifier, photovoltaic isolator and sense resistor. In conventional GFI, current transformer is employed as a sensing element to detect the difference in current flow between live and neutral conductor. If there is no fault in equipment powered through GFI, due to insulation failure of internal wires and windings of motors, both live and neutral currents will be equal in magnitude and opposite in phase.

Keywords: current transformer, electrocution, GFCI, GFI

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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For decades financial economists have been attempted to determine the optimal investment policy by recognizing the option value embedded in irreversible investment whose project value evolves as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). This paper aims to examine the effects of the optimal investment trigger and of the misspecification of stochastic processes on investment in real options applications. Specifically, the former explores the consequence of adopting optimal investment rules on the distributions of corporate value under the correct assumption of stochastic process while the latter analyzes the influence on the distributions of corporate value as a result of the misspecification of stochastic processes, i.e., mistaking an alternative process as a GBM. It is found that adopting the correct optimal investment policy may increase corporate value by shifting the value distribution rightward, and the misspecification effect may decrease corporate value by shifting the value distribution leftward. The adoption of the optimal investment trigger has a major impact on investment to such an extent that the downside risk of investment is truncated at the project value of zero, thereby moving the value distributions rightward. The analytical framework is also extended to situations where collection lags are in place, and the result indicates that collection lags reduce the effects of investment trigger and misspecification on investment in an opposite way.

Keywords: GBM, real options, investment trigger, misspecification, collection lags

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Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

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Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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Authors: Bahram Esmaeili, Hamid Reza Imani Far, Hossein Hosseini, Mohammad Sharifi

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The present study investigated the relationship between personality characteristics of drivers and the number and amount of fines they have in a year .This study was carried out on 120 male taxi drivers that worked at least seven hours in a day in Lamerd - a city in the south of IRAN. Subjects were chosen voluntarily among those available. Predictive variables were the NEO –five great personality factors (1. conscientiousness 2. Openness to Experience 3.Neuroticism4 .Extraversion 5.Agreeableness ) thecriterion variables were the number and amount of fines the drivers have had the last three years. the result of regression analysis showed that conscientiousness factor was able to negatively predict the number and amount of financial fines the drivers had during the last three years. The openness factor positively predicted the number of fines they had in last 3 years and the amount of financial fines during the last year. The extraversion factor both meaningfully and positively could predict only the amount of financial fines they had during the last year. Increasing age was associated with decreasing driving offenses as well as financial loss.The findings can be useful in recognizing the high-risk drivers and leading them to counseling centers .They can also be used to inform the drivers about their personality and it’s relation with their accident rate. Such criteria would be of great importance in employing drivers in different places such as companies, offices etc…

Keywords: drivers, financial fines, neo five-factor personality

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Authors: M. Okeke, A. Blyth

Abstract:

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) such as Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) can be seen in many different critical infrastructures, from nuclear management to utility, medical equipment, power, waste and engine management on ships and planes. The role SCADA plays in critical infrastructure has resulted in a call to secure them. Many lives depend on it for daily activities and the attack vectors are becoming more sophisticated. Hence, the security of ICS is vital as malfunction of it might result in huge risk. This paper describes how the application of Prey Predator (PP) approach in flocks of birds could enhance the detection of malicious activities on ICS. The PP approach explains how these animals in groups or flocks detect predators by following some simple rules. They are not necessarily very intelligent animals but their approach in solving complex issues such as detection through corporation, coordination and communication worth emulating. This paper will emulate flocking behavior seen in birds in detecting predators. The PP approach will adopt six nearest bird approach in detecting any predator. Their local and global bests are based on the individual detection as well as group detection. The PP algorithm was designed following MapReduce methodology that follows a Split Detection Convergence (SDC) approach.

Keywords: Industrial control systems, prey predator, SCADA, SDC.

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Authors: Jin A Ryu, Ga Ye Kim, Hee Sun Kim

Abstract:

As the number of fire accidents is gradually raising, many studies have been reported on evacuation. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating the safety of evacuation and the risk of fire in particular buildings. However, studies on effects of various parameters on evacuation have not been nearly done. Therefore, this paper aims at observing evacuation time under the effect of fire initiated location. In this study, evacuation simulations are performed on a 5-floor building located in Seoul, South Korea using the commercial program, Fire Dynamics Simulator with Evacuation (FDS+EVAC). Only the fourth and fifth floors are modeled with an assumption that fire starts in a room located on the fourth floor. The parameter for evacuation simulations is location of fire initiation to observe the evacuation time and safety. Results show that the location of fire initiation is closer to exit, the more time is taken to evacuate. The case having the nearest location of fire initiation to exit has the lowest ratio of successful occupants to the total occupants. In addition, for safety evaluation, the evacuation time calculated from computer simulation model is compared with the tolerable evacuation time according to code in Japan. As a result, all cases are completed within the tolerable evacuation time. This study allows predicting evacuation time under various conditions of fire and can be used to evaluate evacuation appropriateness and fire safety of building.

Keywords: Evacuation safety, Evacuation simulation, FDS+Evac, Time.

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Authors: Gry M, Bergström J, Lengquist J, Lindberg J, Drobin K, Schwenk J, Nilsson P, Schuppe-Koistinen I.

Abstract:

Sensitive and predictive DILI (Drug Induced Liver Injury) biomarkers are needed in drug R&D to improve early detection of hepatotoxicity. The discovery of DILI biomarkers that demonstrate the predictive power to identify individuals at risk to DILI would represent a major advance in the development of personalized healthcare approaches. In this healthy volunteer acetaminophen study (4g/day for 7 days, with 3 monitored nontreatment days before and 4 after), 450 serum samples from 32 subjects were analyzed using protein profiling by antibody suspension bead arrays. Multiparallel protein profiles were generated using a DILI target protein array with 300 antibodies, where the antibodies were selected based on previous literature findings of putative DILI biomarkers and a screening process using pre dose samples from the same cohort. Of the 32 subjects, 16 were found to develop an elevated ALT value (2Xbaseline, responders). Using the plasma profiling approach together with multivariate statistical analysis some novel findings linked to lipid metabolism were found and more important, endogenous protein profiles in baseline samples (prior to treatment) with predictive power for ALT elevations were identified.

Keywords: DILI, Plasma profiling, PLSDA, Randomforest.

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Authors: Mozhgan Aliakbari, Sara Moridpour

Abstract:

In recent years, much attention has been given to truck drivers’ fatigue management. Long working hours negatively influence truck drivers’ physiology, health, and safety. However, there is little empirical research in the heavy vehicle transport sector in Australia to identify the influence of working hours’ management on drivers’ fatigue and consequently, on the risk of crashes and injuries. There is no national legislation regulating the number of hours or kilometres travelled by truck drivers. Consequently, it is almost impossible to define a standard number of hours or kilometres for truck drivers in a safety management system. This paper reviews the existing studies concerning safe system interventions such as tachographs in relation to fatigue caused by long working hours. This paper also reviews the literature to identify the influence of frequency of rest breaks on the reduction of work-related road transport accidents involving trucks. A framework is presented to manage truck drivers’ fatigue, which may result in the reduction of injuries and fatalities involving heavy vehicles.

Keywords: Fatigue, time management, trucks, traffic safety.

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Authors: Vichada Chokesikarin

Abstract:

The study aims to determine which factors account for customer satisfaction and to investigate the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and business success, in particular, context of the information understanding of hostel business in Pranakorn district, Bangkok and the significant element of entrepreneurship in tourism industry. This study covers 352 hostels customers and 61 hostel owners/managers nearby Khao San road. Data collection methods were used by survey questionnaire and a series of hypotheses were developed from services marketing literature. The findings suggest the customer satisfaction most influenced by image, service quality, room quality and price accordingly. Furthermore the findings revealed that significant relationships exist between entrepreneurial orientation and business success; while competitive aggressiveness was found unrelated. The ECSI model’s generic measuring customer satisfaction was found partially mediate the business success. A reconsideration of other variables applicable should be supported with the model of hostel business. The study provides context and overall view of hostel business while discussing from the entrepreneurial orientation to customer satisfaction, thereby reducing decision risk on hostel investment.

Keywords: Customer satisfaction, ECSI Model, entrepreneurial orientation, small hotels, hostel, business performance.

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