Search results for: sequential confidence estimation

Authors: Mohamad K. Hasan, Hameed Al-Qaheri

Abstract:

Optimization plays an important role in most real world applications that support decision makers to take the right decision regarding the strategic directions and operations of the system they manage. Solutions for traffic management and traffic congestion problems are considered major problems that most decision making authorities for cities around the world are looking for. This review paper gives a full description of the traffic problem as part of the transportation planning process and present a view as a framework of urban transportation system analysis where the core of the system is a transportation network equilibrium model that is based on optimization techniques and that can also be used for evaluating an alternative solution or a combination of alternative solutions for the traffic congestion. Different transportation network equilibrium models are reviewed from the sequential approach to the multiclass combining trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, trip assignment and departure time model. A GIS-Based intelligent decision support system framework for urban transportation system analysis is suggested for implementation where the selection of optimized alternative solutions, single or packages, will be based on an intelligent agent rather than human being which would lead to reduction in time, cost and the elimination of the difficulty, by human being, for finding the best solution to the traffic congestion problem.

Keywords: Multiclass simultaneous transportation equilibrium models, transportation planning, urban transportation systems analysis, intelligent decision support system.

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Authors: U. Kairov, T. Karpenyuk, E. Ramanculov, A. Zinovyev

Abstract:

The most common result of analysis of highthroughput data in molecular biology represents a global list of genes, ranked accordingly to a certain score. The score can be a measure of differential expression. Recent work proposed a new method for selecting a number of genes in a ranked gene list from microarray gene expression data such that this set forms the Optimally Functionally Enriched Network (OFTEN), formed by known physical interactions between genes or their products. Here we present calculation results of relative connectivity of genes from META-OFTEN network and tentative biological interpretation of the most reproducible signal. The relative connectivity and inbetweenness values of genes from META-OFTEN network were estimated.

Keywords: Microarray, META-OFTEN, gene network.

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Authors: Junjie Chen, Deguang Xu

Abstract:

Transient simulation of the hydrogen-assisted self-ignition of propane-air mixtures were carried out in platinum-coated micro-channels from ambient cold-start conditions, using a two-dimensional model with reduced-order reaction schemes, heat conduction in the solid walls, convection and surface radiation heat transfer. The self-ignition behavior of hydrogen-propane mixed fuel is analyzed and compared with the heated feed case. Simulations indicate that hydrogen can successfully cause self-ignition of propane-air mixtures in catalytic micro-channels with a 0.2 mm gap size, eliminating the need for startup devices. The minimum hydrogen composition for propane self-ignition is found to be in the range of 0.8-2.8% (on a molar basis), and increases with increasing wall thermal conductivity, and decreasing inlet velocity or propane composition. Higher propane-air ratio results in earlier ignition. The ignition characteristics of hydrogen-assisted propane qualitatively resemble the selectively inlet feed preheating mode. Transient response of the mixed hydrogen- propane fuel reveals sequential ignition of propane followed by hydrogen. Front-end propane ignition is observed in all cases. Low wall thermal conductivities cause earlier ignition of the mixed hydrogen-propane fuel, subsequently resulting in low exit temperatures. The transient-state behavior of this micro-scale system is described, and the startup time and minimization of hydrogen usage are discussed.

Keywords: Micro-combustion, Self-ignition, Hydrogen addition, Heat transfer, Catalytic combustion, Transient simulation.

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Authors: E. A. Kiridi, A. O. Ogunlela

Abstract:

Conventional wastewater treatment plants of activated carbon, electrodialysis, ion exchange, reverse osmosis etc. are expensive to install, operate and maintain especially in developing countries; therefore, the use of aquatic macrophytes for wastewater purification is a viable alternative. On the first day of experimentation, approximately 100g of water hyacinth was introduced into the hydroponic units in four replicates. The water quality parameters measured were total suspended solids (TSS), pH and electrical conductivity (EC). Others were concentration of ammonium–nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N), nitrite-nitrogen (NO₂^--N), nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃^--N), phosphate–phosphorus (PO₄^3--P), and biomass value. At phytoremediation intervals of 7, 14, 21 and 28 days, the biomass recorded were 438.2 g, 600.7 g, 688.2 g and 725.7 g. Water hyacinth was able to reduce the pollutant concentration of all the selected parameter. The percentage reduction of pH ranged from 1.9% to 14.7%, EC from 49.8% to 97.0%, TDS from 50.4% to 97.6%, TSS from 34.0% to 78.3%, NH₄⁺-N from 38.9% to 85.2%, NO₂^--N from 0% to 84.6%, NO₃^--N from 63.2% to 98.8% and PO₄^3--P from 10% to 88.0%. Paired sample t-test shows that at 95% confidence level, it can be concluded statistically that the inequality between the pre-treatment and post-treatment values are significant. This suggests that the use of water hyacinth is valuable in the design and operation of aquaculture effluent treatment and should therefore be adopted by environmental and wastewater managers.

Keywords: Aquaculture effluent, phytoremediation, pollutant, water hyacinth.

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Authors: Klathea Sevilla, Marjorie Remolador, Bryan Baltazar, Imee Saladaga, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion Ang

Abstract:

The underutilization of biomass resources in the Philippines, combined with its growing population and the rise in fossil fuel prices confirms demand for alternative energy sources. The goal of this paper is to provide a comparison of MODIS-based and Landsat-based agricultural land cover maps when used in the estimation of rice hull’s available energy potential. Biomass resource assessment was done using mathematical models and remote sensing techniques employed in a GIS platform.

Keywords: Biomass, geographic information system, GIS, renewable energy.

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Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.

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Authors: T. Arakawa, H. Sato

Abstract:

There are many drivers who feel right A pillar of Japanese right-hand-drive car preventing visibility on turning right or left at intersection. On the other hand, there is a report that almost pedestrian accident is caused by the delay of finding pedestrian by drivers and this is found by drivers’ eye movement. Thus, we developed the evaluation method of quantification using drivers’ eye movement data by least squares estimation and we applied this method to commercial vehicle and evaluation the visibility. It is suggested that visibility of vehicle can be quantified and estimated by linear model obtained from experimental eye fixation data and information of vehicle dimensions.

Keywords: Eye fixation, modeling, obstacle feeling, right A pillar.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.

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Authors: Feng-Yi Huang, Yuan-Jye Tseng

Abstract:

In the traditional concept of product life cycle management, the activities of design, manufacturing, and assembly are performed in a sequential way. The drawback is that the considerations in design may contradict the considerations in manufacturing and assembly. The different designs of components can lead to different assembly sequences. Therefore, in some cases, a good design may result in a high cost in the downstream assembly activities. In this research, an integrated design evaluation and assembly sequence planning model is presented. Given a product requirement, there may be several design alternative cases to design the components for the same product. If a different design case is selected, the assembly sequence for constructing the product can be different. In this paper, first, the designed components are represented by using graph based models. The graph based models are transformed to assembly precedence constraints and assembly costs. A particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach is presented by encoding a particle using a position matrix defined by the design cases and the assembly sequences. The PSO algorithm simultaneously performs design evaluation and assembly sequence planning with an objective of minimizing the total assembly costs. As a result, the design cases and the assembly sequences can both be optimized. The main contribution lies in the new concept of integrated design evaluation and assembly sequence planning model and the new PSO solution method. The test results show that the presented method is feasible and efficient for solving the integrated design evaluation and assembly planning problem. In this paper, an example product is tested and illustrated.

Keywords: assembly sequence planning, design evaluation, design for assembly, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Ratthapong Bunyanuwat

Abstract:

The purposes of this research were to study the citizen participation in preventing illegal drugs in one of a poor and small community of Bangkok, Thailand and to compare the level of participation and concern of illegal drugs problem by using demographic variables. This paper drew upon data collected from a local citizens survey conducted in Bangkok, Thailand during summer of 2012. A total of 200 respondents were elicited as data input for, and one way ANOVA test. The findings revealed that the overall citizen participation was in the level of medium. The mean score showed that benefit from the program was ranked as the highest and the decision to participate was ranked as second while the follow-up of the program was ranked as the lowest. In terms of the difference in demographic such as gender, age, level of education, income, and year of residency, the hypothesis testing’s result disclosed that there were no difference in their level of participation. However, difference in occupation showed a difference in their level of participation and concern which was significant at the 0.05 confidence level.

Keywords: Citizen Participation, Illegal drug, Preventing drug problem, Resolving drug problem

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Authors: Amer M. Momani, Abdulaziz A. Ahmed

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The many feasible alternatives and conflicting objectives make equipment selection in materials handling a complicated task. This paper presents utilizing Monte Carlo (MC) simulation combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to evaluate and select the most appropriate Material Handling Equipment (MHE). The proposed hybrid model was built on the base of material handling equation to identify main and sub criteria critical to MHE selection. The criteria illustrate the properties of the material to be moved, characteristics of the move, and the means by which the materials will be moved. The use of MC simulation beside the AHP is very powerful where it allows the decision maker to represent his/her possible preference judgments as random variables. This will reduce the uncertainty of single point judgment at conventional AHP, and provide more confidence in the decision problem results. A small business pharmaceutical company is used as an example to illustrate the development and application of the proposed model.

Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Materialhandling equipment selection, Monte Carlo simulation, Multi-criteriadecision making

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Authors: S. Safi, A. Zeroual

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a family of algorithms based on 3rd and 4th order cumulants for blind single-input single-output (SISO) Non-Minimum Phase (NMP) Finite Impulse Response (FIR) channel estimation driven by non-Gaussian signal. The input signal represents the signal used in 10GBASE-T (or IEEE 802.3an-2006) as a Tomlinson-Harashima Precoded (THP) version of random Pulse-Amplitude Modulation with 16 discrete levels (PAM-16). The proposed algorithms are tested using three non-minimum phase channel for different Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNR) and for different data input length. Numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: Higher Order Cumulants, Channel identification, Ethernet communication.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiscale information measure of Electroencephalogram (EEG) for analysis with a short data length. A multiscale extension of permutation entropy (MPE) is capable of fully reflecting the dynamical characteristics of EEG across different temporal scales. However, MPE yields an imprecise estimation due to coarse-grained procedure at large scales. We present an improved MPE measure to estimate entropy more accurately with a short time series. By computing entropies of all coarse-grained time series and averaging those at each scale, it leads to the modified MPE (MMPE) which provides an enhanced accuracy as compared to MPE. Simulation and experimental studies confirmed that MMPE has proved its capability over MPE in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: Multiscale entropy, permutation entropy, EEG, seizure.

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Authors: Chaw Su Mon

Abstract:

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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Authors: Muzaffer Borekci, Murat S. Kirçil

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Predicting the collapse potential of a structure during earthquakes is an important issue in earthquake engineering. Many researchers proposed different methods to assess the collapse potential of structures under the effect of strong ground motions. However most of them did not consider degradation and softening effect in hysteretic behavior. In this study, collapse potential of SDOF systems caused by dynamic instability with stiffness and strength degradation has been investigated. An equation was proposed for the estimation of collapse period of SDOF system which is a limit value of period for dynamic instability. If period of the considered SDOF system is shorter than the collapse period then the relevant system exhibits dynamic instability and collapse occurs.

Keywords: Collapse, degradation, dynamic instability, seismic response.

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Authors: Shazia Javed, Noor Atinah Ahmad

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The householder RLS (HRLS) algorithm is an O(N2) algorithm which recursively updates an arbitrary square-root of the input data correlation matrix and naturally provides the LS weight vector. A data dependent householder matrix is applied for such an update. In this paper a recursive estimate of the eigenvalue spread and misalignment of the algorithm is presented at a very low computational cost. Misalignment is found to be highly sensitive to the eigenvalue spread of input signals, output noise of the system and exponential window. Simulation results show noticeable degradation in the misalignment by increase in eigenvalue spread as well as system-s output noise, while exponential window was kept constant.

Keywords: HRLS algorithm, eigenvalue spread, misalignment.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Walid Aydi, Nouri Masmoudi, Lotfi Kamoun

Abstract:

Images of human iris contain specular highlights due to the reflective properties of the cornea. This corneal reflection causes many errors not only in iris and pupil center estimation but also to locate iris and pupil boundaries especially for methods that use active contour. Each iris recognition system has four steps: Segmentation, Normalization, Encoding and Matching. In order to address the corneal reflection, a novel reflection removal method is proposed in this paper. Comparative experiments of two existing methods for reflection removal method are evaluated on CASIA iris image databases V3. The experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm provides higher performance in reflection removal.

Keywords: iris, pupil, specular highlights, reflection removal

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Authors: Gheorghe Galben, Daniel N. Aloi

Abstract:

Recently, the Spherical Motion Models (SMM-s) have been introduced [1]. These new models have been developed for 3D local landmark-base Autonomous Navigation (AN). This paper is revealing new arguments and experimental results to support the SMM-s characteristics. The accuracy and the robustness in performing a specific task are the main concerns of the new investigations. To analyze their performances of the SMM-s, the most powerful tools of estimation theory, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF), which give the best estimations in noisy environments, have been employed. The Monte Carlo validation implementations used to test the stability and robustness of the models have been employed as well.

Keywords: Autonomous navigation, extended kalman filter, unscented kalman filter, localization algorithms.

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Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

Abstract:

GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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Authors: Manal O. Alothman, Judy. Robertson

Abstract:

Teachers can play a huge role in encouraging students to use computers and can affect students’ attitudes towards computers. So understanding teachers’ beliefs and their use of computers is an important way to create effective motivational systems for teachers to use computers in the classroom in an effective way. A qualitative study (6 focus group) was carried out among Saudi High school teachers, both male and female, to examine their attitudes towards computers and to find out their computer skills and usage. The study showed a gender differences in that females were less likely to attend computer workshops, females also had less computer skills, and they have more negative attitudes towards computers than males. Also the study found that low computer skills in the classroom made students unlikely to have the lessons presented using computers. Furthermore, the study found some factors that effected teachers’ attitudes towards computers. These factors were computer experience and confidence as much having skills and good experience in computer use, the role and importance of computers had become in their life and in teaching as well.

Keywords: Attitude, Education, Student, Teacher, Technology.

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Authors: Hossein Riazoshams, Midi Habshah, Jr., Mohamad Bakri Adam

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The detection of outliers is very essential because of their responsibility for producing huge interpretative problem in linear as well as in nonlinear regression analysis. Much work has been accomplished on the identification of outlier in linear regression, but not in nonlinear regression. In this article we propose several outlier detection techniques for nonlinear regression. The main idea is to use the linear approximation of a nonlinear model and consider the gradient as the design matrix. Subsequently, the detection techniques are formulated. Six detection measures are developed that combined with three estimation techniques such as the Least-Squares, M and MM-estimators. The study shows that among the six measures, only the studentized residual and Cook Distance which combined with the MM estimator, consistently capable of identifying the correct outliers.

Keywords: Nonlinear Regression, outliers, Gradient, LeastSquare, M-estimate, MM-estimate.

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Authors: Oleksandr Poliakov, Genadiy Olinichenko, Yevgen Pashkov, Vadym Kramar, Mykhaylo Kalinin

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For maintenance of a spine stability during the postoperative period a transpedicular fixing of its elements is often used. Usually the transpedicular systems are formed of rods which as a result form a design of the frame type, fastening by screws to vertebras. Such design should be rigid and perceive loadings operating from the spine without essential deformations. From the perfection point of view of known designs their stress whole, and each of elements, in particular is of interest. In this study the modeling of the transpedicular screw is performed and estimation of its deformations taking into account interaction with a vertebra body having variable structure is made.

Keywords: Spine, screw, stress-strain state, transpedicular fixation system, vertebra

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Authors: J.S.C. Prentice

Abstract:

The RK5GL3 method is a numerical method for solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations, and is based on a combination of a fifth-order Runge-Kutta method and 3-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. In this paper we describe an effective local error control algorithm for RK5GL3, which uses local extrapolation with an eighth-order Runge-Kutta method in tandem with RK5GL3, and a Hermite interpolating polynomial for solution estimation at the Gauss-Legendre quadrature nodes.

Keywords: RK5GL3, RKrGLm, Runge-Kutta, Gauss-Legendre, Hermite interpolating polynomial, initial value problem, local error.

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Authors: Jawad H AlKhateeb, Jianmin Jiang, Jinchang Ren, Stan S Ipson

Abstract:

Efficient preprocessing is very essential for automatic recognition of handwritten documents. In this paper, techniques on segmenting words in handwritten Arabic text are presented. Firstly, connected components (ccs) are extracted, and distances among different components are analyzed. The statistical distribution of this distance is then obtained to determine an optimal threshold for words segmentation. Meanwhile, an improved projection based method is also employed for baseline detection. The proposed method has been successfully tested on IFN/ENIT database consisting of 26459 Arabic words handwritten by 411 different writers, and the results were promising and very encouraging in more accurate detection of the baseline and segmentation of words for further recognition.

Keywords: Arabic OCR, off-line recognition, Baseline estimation, Word segmentation.

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Authors: Ravi Shah, V. L. Manekar, R. A. Christian, N. J. Mistry

Abstract:

There are two types of drought as conceptual drought and operational drought. The three parameters as the beginning, the end and the degree of severity of the drought can be identifying in operational drought by average precipitation in the whole region. One of the methods classified to measure drought is Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Evapotranspiration is calculated using Penman-Monteith method by analyzing thirty nine years prolong climatic data. The evapotranspiration is then utilized in RDI to classify normalized and standardized RDI. These RDI classifications led to what kind of drought faced in Bhavnagar region on 12 month time scale basis. The comparison between actual drought conditions and RDI method used to find out drought are also illustrated. It can be concluded that the index results of drought in a particular year are same in both methods but having different index values where as severity remain same.

Keywords: Drought, Drought index, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Precipitation.

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Authors: Xing Xiong, Byung-Jae Choi

Abstract:

It is important for an autonomous mobile robot to know where it is in any time in an indoor environment. In this paper, we design a relative self-localization algorithm. The algorithm compare the interest point in two images and compute the relative displacement and orientation to determent the posture. Firstly, we use the SURF algorithm to extract the interest points of the ceiling. Second, in order to reduce amount of calculation, a replacement SURF is used to extract orientation and description of the interest points. At last, according to the transformation of the interest points in two images, the relative self-localization of the mobile robot will be estimated greatly.

Keywords: Relative Self-Localization Posture, SURF, Natural Landmark, Interest Point.

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Authors: Karolína Vozková, Matěj Kuc

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This paper deals with the impact of decrease in interest rates on the performance of commercial and cooperative banks in the Eurozone measured by net interest margin. The analysis was performed on balanced dataset of 268 commercial and 726 cooperative banks spanning the 2008-2015 period. We employed Fixed Effects estimation panel method. As expected, we found a negative relationship between market rates and net interest margin. Our results suggest that the impact of negative interest income differs across individual banking business models. More precisely, those cooperative banks were much more hit by the decrease of market interest rates which might be due to their ownership structure and more restrictive business regulation.

Keywords: Cooperative banks, performance, negative interest rates, risk management.

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Authors: R. Abbasnia, F. Mohajeri Nav, S. Zahedifar, A. Tajik

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Recent years, adaptive pushover methods have been developed for seismic analysis of structures. Herein, the accuracy of the displacement-based adaptive pushover (DAP) method, which is introduced by Antoniou and Pinho [2004], is evaluated for Irregular buildings. The results are compared to the force-based procedure. Both concrete and steel frame structures, asymmetric in plan and elevation are analyzed and also torsional effects are taking into the account. These analyses are performed using both near fault and far fault records. In order to verify the results, the Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) is performed.

Keywords: Pushover Analysis, DAP, IDA, Torsion.

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Authors: Michael J. Hamlin, Apiwan Manimmanakorn, Gavin R. Sandercock, Jenny J. Ross, Robert H. Creasy, John Hellemans

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The aim of this study was to compare the effects of an altitude training camp on heart rate variability and performance in elite triathletes. Ten athletes completed 20 days of live-high, train-low training at 1650m. Athletes underwent pre and post 800-m swim time trials at sea-level, and two heart rate variability tests at 1650m on the first and last day of the training camp. Based on their time trial results, athletes were divided into responders and non-responders. Relative to the non-responders, the responders sympathetic-toparasympathetic ratio decreased substantially after 20 days of altitude training (-0.68 ± 1.08 and -1.2 ± 0.96, mean ± 90% confidence interval for supine and standing respectively). In addition, sympathetic activity while standing was also substantially lower post-altitude in the responders compared to the non-responders (-1869 ± 4764 ms2). Results indicate that responders demonstrated a change to more vagal predominance compared to non-responders.

Keywords: parasympathetic predominance, poor performance, triathlon, 800-m swim

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