Search results for: maintenance strategy selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis

Authors: N.A.M. Yahya, W.H. Lim, S.W. Phang, H. Ahmad, R. Zakaria, F.R. Mahamd Adikan

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Refractive index control of benzocyclobutene (BCB 4024-40) is achieved by facilitating different conditions during the thermal curing of BCB film. Refractive index (RI) change of 1.49% is obtained with curing of BCB film using an oven, while the RI change is 0.1% when the BCB is cured using a hotplate. The two different curing methods exhibit a temperature dependent refractive index change of the BCB photosensitive polymer. By carefully controlling the curing conditions, multiple layers of BCB with different RI can be fabricated, which can then be applied in the fabrication of optical waveguides.

Keywords: BCB 4024-40, curing method, multiple refractiveindex, polymers.

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Authors: Antonio Estache, Atsushi Iimi

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Limited competition has been a serious concern in infrastructure procurement. Importantly, however, there are normally a number of potential bidders initially showing interest in proposed projects. This paper focuses on tackling the question why these initially interested bidders fade out. An empirical problem is that no bids of fading-out firms are observable. They could decide not to enter the process at the beginning of the tendering or may be technically disqualified at any point in the selection process. The paper applies the double selection model to procurement data from road development projects in developing countries and shows that competition ends up restricted, because bidders are self-selective and auctioneers also tend to limit participation depending on the size of contracts.Limited competition would likely lead to high infrastructure procurement costs, threatening fiscal sustainability and economic growth.

Keywords: Auction theory, endogenous bidder entry, infrastructure development, public procurement.

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Authors: Ebere U. Okolo, Eunice C. Okpalaojiego, Chimaobi V. Okolo

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Some investors prefer to keep their money in the bank rather than invest in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) due to the high cost of running small and medium scale enterprise in Enugu State. This cost primarily concerns multiple-taxation, enormous tax burdens, levies and charges. This study examines the effect of multiple-taxation on the investments in SMEs. The study used survey design with SME population of 80. Questionnaire was used to collect data. Simple percentages/frequencies were used to analyze the data and the research hypotheses were tested with ANOVA. It was found that multiple taxation has negative effect on SMEs investment. Furthermore, the relationship between SMEs investment and its ability to pay tax is significant. The researcher recommends that government should develop a tax policy that considers the enhancement of SMEs’ capital allowance when imposing taxes. Government should also consider a tax policy that encourages investment in SMEs by consolidating all taxes in one slot and latter disseminate to various government purses rather than having many closely related but different taxes at the same time.

Keywords: Investments, multiple taxation, small and medium enterprises.

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Authors: Pathinathan Theresanathan, Ajay Minj

Abstract:

Ignatian Discernment Process (IDP) is an intense decision-making tool to decide on life-issues. Decisions are influenced by various factors outside of the decision maker and inclination within. This paper develops IDP in the context of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) process. Extended VIKOR method is a decision-making method which encompasses even conflict situations and accommodates weightage to various issues. Various aspects of IDP, namely three ways of decision making and tactics of inner desires, are observed, analyzed and articulated within the frame work of fuzzy rules. The decision-making situations are broadly categorized into two types. The issues outside of the decision maker influence the person. The inner feeling also plays vital role in coming to a conclusion. IDP integrates both the categories using Extended VIKOR method. Case studies are carried out and analyzed with FMCDM process. Finally, IDP is verified with an illustrative case study and results are interpreted. A confused person who could not come to a conclusion is able to take decision on a concrete way of life through IDP. The proposed IDP model recommends an integrated and committed approach to value-based decision making.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, Ignatian discernment process, Ignatian discernment, multi-criteria decision making, VIKOR.

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Authors: Po-Chun Lin, Jyh-Cherng Gu

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This study adopted previous fault patterns, results of detection analysis, historical records and data, and experts- experiences to establish fuzzy principles and estimate the failure probability index of components of a power transformer. Considering that actual parameters and limiting conditions of parameters may differ, this study used the standard data of IEC, IEEE, and CIGRE as condition parameters. According to the characteristics of each condition parameter, relative degradation was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of the factors on the transformer condition. The method of fuzzy mathematics was adopted to determine the subordinate function of the transformer condition. The calculation used the Matlab Fuzzy Tool Box to select the condition parameters of coil winding, iron core, bushing, OLTC, insulating oil and other auxiliary components and factors (e.g., load records, performance history, and maintenance records) of the transformer to establish the fuzzy principles. Examples were presented to support the rationality and effectiveness of the evaluation method of power transformer performance conditions, as based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

Keywords: Fuzzy, relative degradation degree, condition-basedmaintenance, power transformer

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Authors: Konstantinos Michail, Argyrios Zolotas, Roger Goodall, John Pearson

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In this paper a systematic method via H∞ control design is proposed to select a sensor set that satisfies a number of input criteria for a MAGLEV suspension system. The proposed method recovers a number of optimised controllers for each possible sensor set that satisfies the performance and constraint criteria using evolutionary algorithms.

Keywords: H-infinity, Sensor optimisation, Genetic algorithms, MAGLEV vehicles

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Authors: Daniel J. Glauber

Abstract:

Knowledge transfer between personnel could benefit an organization’s improved competitive advantage in the marketplace from a strategic approach to knowledge management. The lack of information sharing between personnel could create knowledge transfer gaps while restricting the decision-making processes. Knowledge transfer between personnel can potentially improve information sharing based on an implemented knowledge management strategy. An organization’s capacity to gain more knowledge is aligned with the organization’s prior or existing captured knowledge. This case study attempted to understand the overall influence of a KMS within the corporate environment and knowledge exchange between personnel. The significance of this study was to help understand how organizations can improve the Return on Investment (ROI) of a knowledge management strategy within a knowledge-centric organization. A qualitative descriptive case study was the research design selected for this study. The lack of information sharing between personnel may create knowledge transfer gaps while restricting the decision-making processes. Developing a knowledge management strategy acceptable at all levels of the organization requires cooperation in support of a common organizational goal. Working with management and executive members to develop a protocol where knowledge transfer becomes a standard practice in multiple tiers of the organization. The knowledge transfer process could be measurable when focusing on specific elements of the organizational process, including personnel transition to help reduce time required understanding the job. The organization studied in this research acknowledged the need for improved knowledge management activities within the organization to help organize, retain, and distribute information throughout the workforce. Data produced from the study indicate three main themes including information management, organizational culture, and knowledge sharing within the workforce by the participants. These themes indicate a possible connection between an organizations KMS, the organizations culture, knowledge sharing, and knowledge transfer.

Keywords: Knowledge management strategies, knowledge transfer, knowledge management, knowledge capacity.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

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Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

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Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun

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In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: Grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming.

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Authors: R. Shivarudraswamy, D. N. Gaonkar

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The continued interest in the use of distributed generation in recent years is leading to the growth in number of distributed generators connected to distribution networks. Steady state voltage rise resulting from the connection of these generators can be a major obstacle to their connection at lower voltage levels. The present electric distribution network is designed to keep the customer voltage within tolerance limit. This may require a reduction in connectable generation capacity, under utilization of appropriate generation sites. Thus distribution network operators need a proper voltage regulation method to allow the significant integration of distributed generation systems to existing network. In this work a voltage rise problem in a typical distribution system has been studied. A method for voltage regulation of distribution system with multiple DG system by coordinated operation distributed generator, capacitor and OLTC has been developed. A sensitivity based analysis has been carried out to determine the priority for individual generators in multiple DG environment. The effectiveness of the developed method has been evaluated under various cases through simulation results.

Keywords: Distributed generation, voltage control, sensitivity factor.

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Authors: Ali Abdi Kordani, Meysam Rooyintan, Sid Mohammad Boroomandrad

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Nowadays, one the most important problems in megacities is public transportation and satisfying citizens from this system in order to decrease the traffic congestions and air pollution. Accordingly, to improve the transit passengers and increase the travel safety, new transportation systems such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), tram, and monorail have expanded that each one has different merits and demerits. That is why comparing different systems for a systematic selection of public transportation systems in a big city like Tehran, which has numerous problems in terms of traffic and pollution, is essential. In this paper, it is tried to investigate the advantages and feasibility of using monorail, tram and BRT systems, which are widely used in most of megacities in all over the world. In Tehran, by using SPSS statistical analysis software and TOPSIS method, these three modes are compared to each other and their results will be assessed. Experts, who are experienced in the transportation field, answer the prepared matrix questionnaire to select each public transportation mode (tram, monorail, and BRT). The results according to experts’ judgments represent that monorail has the first priority, Tram has the second one, and BRT has the third one according to the considered indices like execution costs, wasting time, depreciation, pollution, operation costs, travel time, passenger satisfaction, benefit to cost ratio and traffic congestion.

Keywords: Bus Rapid Transit, Costs, Monorail, Pollution, Tram.

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Authors: Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Amir Sabbagh Molahosseini, Keivan Navi

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The residue number system (RNS) is popular in high performance computation applications because of its carry-free nature. The challenges of RNS systems design lie in the moduli set selection and in the reverse conversion from residue representation to weighted representation. In this paper, we proposed a fully parallel reverse conversion algorithm for the moduli set {rn - 2, rn - 1, rn}, based on simple mathematical relationships. Also an efficient hardware realization of this algorithm is presented. Our proposed converter is very faster and results to hardware savings, compared to the other reverse converters.

Keywords: Reverse converter, residue to weighted converter, residue number system, multiple-valued logic, computer arithmetic.

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for the classification of an unstructured format description for identification of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support file format selection with just the unstructured text description that comprises the most important format features for a particular organisation. Subsequently, the file format indentification method employs file format classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with an estimation of required file format. Our goal is to make use of a format specification knowledge base aggregated from a different Web sources in order to select file format for a particular institution. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert, the file format for his institution. The proposed methods facilitate the selection of file format and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is meant to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and specifications of file formats. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the file formats is presented as a file format vocabulary that comprises most common terms that are characteristic for all researched formats. The goal is to suggest a particular file format based on this vocabulary for analysis by an expert. The sample file format calculation and the calculation results including probabilities are presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: Data mining, digital libraries, digital preservation, file format.

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Authors: Afaf Alharbi, Qianni Zhang

Abstract:

The identification of malignant tissue in histopathological slides holds significant importance in both clinical settings and pathology research. This paper presents a methodology aimed at automatically categorizing cancerous tissue through the utilization of a multiple instance learning framework. This framework is specifically developed to acquire knowledge of the Bernoulli distribution of the bag label probability by employing neural networks. Furthermore, we put forward a neural network-based permutation-invariant aggregation operator, equivalent to attention mechanisms, which is applied to the multi-instance learning network. Through empirical evaluation on an openly available colon cancer histopathology dataset, we provide evidence that our approach surpasses various conventional deep learning methods.

Keywords: Attention Multiple Instance Learning, Multiple Instance Learning, transfer learning, histopathological slides, cancer tissue classification.

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Authors: Y. Bentoutou, A.M. Si Mohammed

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This paper presents a review of an 8-year study on radiation effects in commercial memory devices operating within the main on-board computer system OBC386 of the Algerian microsatellite Alsat-1. A statistical analysis of single-event upset (SEU) and multiple-bit upset (MBU) activity in these commercial memories shows that the typical SEU rate at alsat-1's orbit is 4.04 × 10-7 SEU/bit/day, where 98.6% of these SEUs cause single-bit errors, 1.22% cause double-byte errors, and the remaining SEUs result in multiple-bit and severe errors.

Keywords: Radiation effects, error detection and correction, satellite computer, small satellite mission.

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Authors: Norah Alshahrani, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a condition related to issues with brain development that affects how a person recognises and communicates with others which results in difficulties with interaction and communication socially and it is constantly growing. Early recognition of ASD allows children to lead safe and healthy lives and helps doctors with accurate diagnoses and management of conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a method that will achieve good results and with high accuracy for the measurement of ASD in children. In this paper, ASD datasets of toddlers and children have been analyzed. We employed the following machine learning techniques to attempt to explore ASD: Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Na¨ıve Bayes (NB) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Then feature selection was used to provide fewer attributes from ASD datasets while preserving model performance. As a result, we found that the best result has been provided by SVM, achieving 0.98% in the toddler dataset and 0.99% in the children dataset.

Keywords: Autism Spectrum Disorder, ASD, Machine Learning, ML, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine, SVM.

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Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Muhammad Khalid Abdullah, Khalid Rashid, Hafiz Farooq Ahmad

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Aspect Oriented Programming promises many advantages at programming level by incorporating the cross cutting concerns into separate units, called aspects. Join Points are distinguishing features of Aspect Oriented Programming as they define the points where core requirements and crosscutting concerns are (inter)connected. Currently, there is a problem of multiple aspects- composition at the same join point, which introduces the issues like ordering and controlling of these superimposed aspects. Dynamic strategies are required to handle these issues as early as possible. State chart is an effective modeling tool to capture dynamic behavior at high level design. This paper provides methodology to formulate the strategies for multiple aspect composition at high level, which helps to better implement these strategies at coding level. It also highlights the need of designing shared join point at high level, by providing the solutions of these issues using state chart diagrams in UML 2.0. High level design representation of shared join points also helps to implement the designed strategy in systematic way.

Keywords: Aspect Oriented Software Development, Shared Join Points.

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Authors: K. C. Meher, R. K. Swain, C. K. Chanda

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance analysis of dynamic search space reduction (DSR) based gravitational search algorithm (GSA) to solve dynamic economic dispatch of thermal generating units with valve point effects. Dynamic economic dispatch basically dictates the best setting of generator units with anticipated load demand over a definite period of time. In this paper, the presented technique is considered that deals an inequality constraints treatment mechanism known as DSR strategy to accelerate the optimization process. The presented method is demonstrated through five-unit test systems to verify its effectiveness and robustness. The simulation results are compared with other existing evolutionary methods reported in the literature. It is intuited from the comparison that the fuel cost and other performances of the presented approach yield fruitful results with marginal value of simulation time.

Keywords: Dynamic economic dispatch, dynamic search space reduction strategy, gravitational search algorithm, ramp rate limits, valve-point effects.

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Authors: Miloje S. Radenkovic, Tamal Bose

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This paper presents the convergence analysis of a prediction based blind equalizer for IIR channels. Predictor parameters are estimated by using the recursive least squares algorithm. It is shown that the prediction error converges almost surely (a.s.) toward a scalar multiple of the unknown input symbol sequence. It is also proved that the convergence rate of the parameter estimation error is of the same order as that in the iterated logarithm law.

Keywords: Adaptive blind equalizer, Recursive leastsquares, Adaptive Filtering, Convergence analysis.

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Authors: S. Souli, Z. Lachiri

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In this paper we propose a robust environmental sound classification approach, based on spectrograms features driven from log-Gabor filters. This approach includes two methods. In the first methods, the spectrograms are passed through an appropriate log-Gabor filter banks and the outputs are averaged and underwent an optimal feature selection procedure based on a mutual information criteria. The second method uses the same steps but applied only to three patches extracted from each spectrogram.

To investigate the accuracy of the proposed methods, we conduct experiments using a large database containing 10 environmental sound classes. The classification results based on Multiclass Support Vector Machines show that the second method is the most efficient with an average classification accuracy of 89.62 %.

Keywords: Environmental sounds, Log-Gabor filters, Spectrogram, SVM Multiclass, Visual features.

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Authors: Haidar Safa, Hassan Artail, Ahmad Mehio, Hicham Zahr, Ziad Matragi

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The Mobile IP Standard has been developed to support mobility over the Internet. This standard contains several drawbacks as in the cases where packets are routed via sub-optimal paths and significant amount of signaling messages is generated due to the home registration procedure which keeps the network aware of the current location of the mobile nodes. Recently, a dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy for mobile IP networks (DHMIP) has been proposed to reduce home registrations costs. However, this strategy induces a packet delivery delay and increases the risk of packet loss. In this paper, we propose an enhanced version of the dynamic hierarchical strategy that reduces the packet delivery delay and minimizes the risk of packet loss. Preliminary results obtained from simulations are promising. They show that the enhanced version outperforms the original dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy version.

Keywords: Location management, Mobile IP (MIP), Home Agent, Foreign Agent.

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Authors: Hilal A. Fadhil, Thanaa Hussein Abd, Hamza M. R. Al-Khafaji, S. A. Aljunid

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This paper presents a comparison between Spectrum- Sliced Wavelength Division Multiplexing (SS-WDM) and Spectrum Amplitude Coding Optical Code Division Multiple Access (SAC Optical CDMA) systems for different light sources. The performance of the system is shown in the simulated results of the bit error rate (BER) and the eye diagram of both systems. The comparison results indicate that the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) effects have a significant impact on SS-WDM over SAC Optical CDMA systems. Finally, in terms of spectral efficiency at constant BER of 10-12, SSWDM offers higher spectral efficiency than optical CDMA since no bandwidth expansion in needed.

Keywords: WDM, OCDMA, BER, RD code

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Authors: S. Rasekhinia, S. Aghanajafizadeh, K. Eslami

Abstract:

We studied the selection of nest sites by Persian ground Jay (Podoces pleskei), in a semi -desert central Iran. Habitat variables such as plant species number, height of plant species, vegetation percent and distance to water sources of nest sites were compared with randomly selected non- used sites. The results showed that the most important factors influencing nesting site selection were total vegetation percent and number of shrubs (Zgophyllum eurypterum and Atraphaxis spinosa). The mean vegetation percent of 20 area selected by Persian Ground Jay was (4.41+ 0.17), which was significantly larger than that of the non – selected area (2.08 + 0.06). The number of Zygophyllum eurypterum (1.13+ 0.01) and Atraphaxis spinosa (1.36+ 0.10) were also significantly higher compared with the control area (0.43+ 0.07) and (0.58+ 0.9) respectively.

Keywords: Persian Ground Jay, Habitat variables, Iran.

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Authors: Yu-Wei Chen, Li-Ren Han

Abstract:

In this paper, we employ the approach of linear programming to propose a new interactive broadcast method. In our method, a film S is divided into n equal parts and broadcast via k channels. The user simultaneously downloads these segments from k channels into the user-s set-top-box (STB) and plays them in order. Our method assumes that the initial p segments will not have fast-forwarding capabilities. Every time the user wants to initiate d times fast-forwarding, according to our broadcasting strategy, the necessary segments already saved in the user-s STB or are just download on time for playing. The proposed broadcasting strategy not only allows the user to pause and rewind, but also to fast-forward.

Keywords: Broadcasting, Near Video-on-Demand (VOD), Linear Programming, Video-Cassette-Recorder (VCR) Functions, Waiting Time.

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Authors: P. S. Gomathi, B. Kalaavathi

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The process in which the complementary information from multiple images is integrated to provide composite image that contains more information than the original input images is called image fusion. Medical image fusion provides useful information from multimodality medical images that provides additional information to the doctor for diagnosis of diseases in a better way. This paper represents the wavelet based medical image fusion algorithm on different multimodality medical images. In order to fuse the medical images, images are decomposed using Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT). The high frequency coefficients are convolved with morphological operator followed by the maximum-selection (MS) rule. The low frequency coefficients are processed by MS rule. The reconstructed image is obtained by inverse RWT. The quantitative measures which includes Mean, Standard Deviation, Average Gradient, Spatial frequency, Edge based Similarity Measures are considered for evaluating the fused images. The performance of this proposed method is compared with Pixel averaging, PCA, and DWT fusion methods. When compared with conventional methods, the proposed framework provides better performance for analysis of multimodality medical images.

Keywords: Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Image Fusion, Morphological Processing, Redundant Wavelet Transform (RWT).

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Authors: Tianyi Qin

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Along with the acceleration of Chinese urbanization, the expansion, renovation and demolition of old buildings is on the stage together with the design and construction of new buildings every day in downtown of the old city area. The coordinative symbiosis between new and old buildings is an important problem which needs to be solved in the process of urban development. By studying and analyzing the case of Shanghai Citic Plaza and surroundings, this paper contributes to discussing the concept, value and problems to be solved of the coordination of new and old buildings, meanwhile, striking the balance between new and old buildings from the aspects of architectural form, space, function and local context. As a result, the strategy of the coordinative symbiosis between new and old buildings is summarized, which can offer some guiding principles to urban development from now on.

Keywords: Coordinative symbiosis, new and old buildings, Shanghai Citic Plaza, strategy.

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Authors: Hrabe Thomas, Beck Florian, Nickell Stephan

Abstract:

Cryo-electron microscopy (CEM) in combination with single particle analysis (SPA) is a widely used technique for elucidating structural details of macromolecular assemblies at closeto- atomic resolutions. However, development of automated software for SPA processing is still vital since thousands to millions of individual particle images need to be processed. Here, we present our workflow for automated particle picking. Our approach integrates peak shape analysis to the classical correlation and an iterative approach to separate macromolecules and background by classification. This particle selection workflow furthermore provides a robust means for SPA with little user interaction. Processing simulated and experimental data assesses performance of the presented tools.

Keywords: Cryo-electron Microscopy, Single Particle Analysis, Image Processing.

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Authors: Jihyung Kim, Taejin Kim, Sungho Park, Jun-Dong Cho

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A conventional binding method for low power in a high-level synthesis mainly focuses on finding an optimal binding for an assumed input data, and obtains only one binding table. In this paper, we show that a binding method which uses multiple binding tables gets better solution compared with the conventional methods which use a single binding table, and propose a dynamic bus binding scheme for low power using multiple binding tables. The proposed method finds multiple binding tables for the proper partitions of an input data, and switches binding tables dynamically to produce the minimum total switching activity. Experimental result shows that the proposed method obtains a binding solution having 12.6-28.9% smaller total switching activity compared with the conventional methods.

Keywords: low power, bus binding, switching activity, multiplebinding tables

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Authors: Zuhal Hussein, Nabsiah Abdul Wahid, Norizan Saad

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In line with changes of consumers modern lifestyle has call for the advertising strategy to change. This research is to find out how game with telepresence and product experience embedded in the computer game to affect users- intention to purchase. Game content developers are urging to consider of placing product message as part of game design strategy that can influence the game player-s intention to purchase. Experiment was carried out on two hundred and fifty undergraduate students who volunteered to participate in the Internet game playing activities. A factor analysis and correlation analysis was performed on items designed to measure telepresence, attitudes toward telepresence, and game player intention to purchase the product advertise in the game that respondents experienced. The results indicated that telepresence consist of interactive experience and product experience. The study also found that product experience is positively related to the game players- intention to purchase. The significance of product experience implies the usefulness of an interactive advertising in the game playing to attract players- intention to purchase the advertised product placed in the creative game design.

Keywords: Purchase intention, telepresence, product experience, interactive experience.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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