Search results for: reasoning strategy

Authors: A. Balbo, G. Colucci, M. Nicoli, L. Savoldi

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Hydrogen is expected to become an undisputed player in the ecological transition throughout the next decades. The decarbonization potential offered by this energy vector provides various opportunities for the so-called “hard-to-abate” sectors, including industrial production of iron and steel, glass, refineries and the heavy-duty transport. In this regard, Italy, in the framework of decarbonization plans for the whole European Union, has been considering a wider use of hydrogen to provide an alternative to fossil fuels in hard-to-abate sectors. This work aims to assess and compare different options concerning the pathway to be followed in the development of the future Italian energy system in order to meet decarbonization targets as established by the Paris Agreement and by the European Green Deal, and to infer a techno-economic analysis of the required asset alternatives to be used in that perspective. To accomplish this objective, the Energy System Optimization Model TEMOA-Italy is used, based on the open-source platform TEMOA and developed at PoliTo as a tool to be used for technology assessment and energy scenario analysis. The adopted assessment strategy includes two different scenarios to be compared with a business-as-usual one, which considers the application of current policies in a time horizon up to 2050. The studied scenarios are based on the up-to-date hydrogen-related targets and planned investments included in the National Hydrogen Strategy and in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, with the purpose of providing a critical assessment of what they propose. One scenario imposes decarbonization objectives for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050, without any other specific target. The second one (inspired to the national objectives on the development of the sector) promotes the deployment of the hydrogen value-chain. These scenarios provide feedback about the applications hydrogen could have in the Italian energy system, including transport, industry and synfuels production. Furthermore, the decarbonization scenario where hydrogen production is not imposed, will make use of this energy vector as well, showing the necessity of its exploitation in order to meet pledged targets by 2050. The distance of the planned policies from the optimal conditions for the achievement of Italian objectives is clarified, revealing possible improvements of various steps of the decarbonization pathway, which seems to have as a fundamental element Carbon Capture and Utilization technologies for its accomplishment. In line with the European Commission open science guidelines, the transparency and the robustness of the presented results are ensured by the adoption of the open-source open-data model such as the TEMOA-Italy.

Keywords: Decarbonization, energy system optimization models, hydrogen, open-source modeling, TEMOA.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

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The pancreas is an elongated organ that extends across the abdomen, below the stomach. In addition, it secretes certain enzymes that aid in food digestion. The pancreas also manufactures hormones responsible for regulating blood glucose levels. In the present paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the homeostasis of glucose and insulin in healthy human, and a simulation of this model, which depicts the physiological events after a meal, will be represented in ordinary humans. The aim of this paper is to design an algorithm which regulates the level of glucose in the blood. The algorithm applied the concept of expert system for performing an algorithm control in the form of an "active" used to prescribe the rate of insulin infusion. By decomposing the system into subsystems, we have developed parametric models of each subsystem by using a forcing function strategy. The results showed a performance of the control system.

Keywords: Modeling, algorithm, regulation, glucose-insulin, blood, control system.

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Authors: M. N. Huda, S. Yamada, N. Sonehara

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Probability-based identity disclosure risk measurement may give the same overall risk for different anonymization strategy of the same dataset. Some entities in the anonymous dataset may have higher identification risks than the others. Individuals are more concerned about higher risks than the average and are more interested to know if they have a possibility of being under higher risk. A notation of overall risk in the above measurement method doesn-t indicate whether some of the involved entities have higher identity disclosure risk than the others. In this paper, we have introduced an identity disclosure risk measurement method that not only implies overall risk, but also indicates whether some of the members have higher risk than the others. The proposed method quantifies the overall risk based on the individual risk values, the percentage of the records that have a risk value higher than the average and how larger the higher risk values are compared to the average. We have analyzed the disclosure risks for different disclosure control techniques applied to original microdata and present the results.

Keywords: Anonymization, microdata, disclosure risk, privacy.

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Authors: Juraj Camaj, Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Masek

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The paper is focused to the evaluation railway tracks in the Slovakia by using Multi-Criteria method. Evaluation of railway tracks has important impacts for the assessment of investment in technical equipment. Evaluation of railway tracks also has an important impact for the allocation of marshalling yards. Marshalling yards are in transport model as centers for the operation assigned catchment area. This model is one of the effective ways to meet the development strategy of the European Community's railways. By applying this model in practice, a transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and then expect an increase in performance. The model is also applicable to other rail networks. This model supplements a theoretical problem of train formation problem of new ways of looking at evaluation of factors affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Railway track, multi-criteria methods, evaluation, transportation model.

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of the operations research models developed for internal audit planning. Two alternative approaches have been followed in the literature for audit planning: (1) identifying the optimal audit frequency; and (2) determining the optimal audit resource allocation. The first approach identifies the elapsed time between two successive audits, which can be presented as the optimal number of audits in a given planning horizon, or the optimal number of transactions after which an audit should be performed. It also includes the optimal audit schedule. The second approach determines the optimal allocation of audit frequency among all auditable units in the firm. In our review, we discuss both the deterministic and probabilistic models developed for audit planning. In addition, game theory models are reviewed to find the optimal auditing strategy based on the interactions between the auditors and the clients.

Keywords: Operations research applications, audit frequency, audit planning, audit-staff scheduling.

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Authors: D. Sumathi, P. Poongodi

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Cloud Computing refers to applications delivered as services over the internet, and the datacenters that provide those services with hardware and systems software. These were earlier referred to as Software as a Service (SaaS). Scheduling is justified by job components (called tasks), lack of information. In fact, in a large fraction of jobs from machine learning, bio-computing, and image processing domains, it is possible to estimate the maximum time required for a task in the job. This study focuses on Trust based scheduling to improve cloud security by modifying Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm. It also proposes TR-HEFT (Trust Reputation HEFT) which is then compared to Dynamic Load Scheduling.

Keywords: Software as a Service (SaaS), Trust, Heterogeneous Earliest Finish Time (HEFT) algorithm, Dynamic Load Scheduling.

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Authors: S.F. Faisal, A.H.M.A. Rahim, J.M. Bakhashwain

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Design of a fixed parameter robust STATCOM controller for a multi-machine power system through an H-? based loop-shaping procedure is presented. The trial and error part of the graphical loop-shaping procedure has been eliminated by embedding a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique in the design loop. Robust controllers were designed considering the detailed dynamics of the multi-machine system and results were compared with reduced order models. The robust strategy employing loop-shaping and PSO algorithms was observed to provide very good damping profile for a wide range of operation and for various disturbance conditions. 

Keywords: STATCOM, Robust control, Power system damping, Particle Swarm Optimization, Loop-shaping.

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Authors: Mostafa A. Elshahed, Magdy M. Elmarsfawy, Hussain M. Zain Eldain

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In this paper, a Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) model is developed for the system consisting of both thermal generators and wind turbines. The inclusion of a significant amount of wind energy into power systems has resulted in additional constraints on DED to accommodate the intermittent nature of the output. The probability of stochastic wind power based on the Weibull probability density function is included in the model as a constraint; A Here-and-Now Approach. The Environmental Protection Agency-s hourly emission target, which gives the maximum emission during the day, is used as a constraint to reduce the atmospheric pollution. A 69-bus test system with non-smooth cost function is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model compared with static economic dispatch model with including the wind power.

Keywords: Dynamic Economic Dispatch, StochasticOptimization, Weibull Distribution, Wind Power

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Authors: Ryan Brading

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The results of Taiwan’s presidential election, which took place on 11 January 2020, were alarming for the Kuomintang (KMT). A party that was once the pillar of Taiwan’s institutional apparatus is now losing its direction. Since 2016, the inability of KMT to construct a winning presidential election campaign strategy has made its Chinese ancestry an obstacle in Taiwan’s vibrant and transparent democracy. The appearance of the little-known legislator Han Kuo-yu as the leadership alternative opened the possibility of reigniting the party. Han’s victory in the Kaohsiung mayoral election in November 2018 provided hope that Han could also win the presidency. Wrongly described as a populist, Han, however, was defeated in the January 2020 presidential race. This article analyses why Han is not a populist, his triumph in Kaohsiung, humiliation in running for the presidency and suffering a complete ‘loss of face’ when Kaohsiungers democratically ousted him from the mayoral post on 6 June 2020.

Keywords: Populism, ‘1992 Consensus’, Taiwan, youth vote, Han’s recall.

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Authors: Lynn. J. MacFarlane. A

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Within the healthcare system, training and continued professional development although essential, can be effected by cost and logistical restraints due to the nature of healthcare provision e.g employee shift patterns, access to expertise, cost factors in releasing staff to attend training etc. The use of multimedia technology for the development of e-learning applications is also a major cost consideration for healthcare management staff, and this type of media whether optical or on line requires careful planning in order to remain inclusive of all staff with potentially varied access to multimedia computing. This paper discusses a project in which the use of DVD authoring technology has been successfully implemented to meet the needs of distance learning and user considerations, and is based on film production techniques and reduced product turnaround deadlines.

Keywords: DVD, healthcare, distance learning, cost.

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Authors: Tiancheng Lan

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E10A is a kind of replication-defective adenovirus which carries the human endostatin gene to inhibit the growth of tumors. Kringle 5(K5) has almost the same function as angiostatin to also inhibit the growth of tumors since they are all the byproduct of the proteolytic cleavage of plasminogen. Tumor size increasing can be suppressed because both of the endostatin and K5 can restrain the angiogenesis process. Therefore, in order to improve the treatment effect on tumor, 2A peptide is used to construct a fusion gene carrying both E10A and K5. Using 2A peptide is an ideal strategy when a fusion gene is expressed because it can avoid many problems during the expression of more than one kind of protein. The overlap extension PCR is also used to connect 2A peptide with E10A and K5. The final construction of fusion gene E10A-2A-K5 can provide a possible new method of the anti-angiogenesis treatment with a better expression performance.

Keywords: E10A, Kringle 5, 2A peptide, overlap extension PCR.

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Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe

Abstract:

The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.

Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.

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Authors: Yu J. Chiu, Chia H. Yeh

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Innovation is more important in any companies. However, it is not easy to measure the innovation performance correctly. Patent is one of measuring index nowadays. This paper wants to purpose an approach for valuing patents based on market reaction to patent infringement litigations. The interesting phenomenon is found from collection of patent infringement litigation events. That is if any patent litigation event occurs the stock value will follow changing. The plaintiffs- stock value raises some percentage. According to this interesting phenomenon, the relationship between patent litigation and stock value is tested and verified. And then, the stock value variation is used to deduce the infringed patents- value. The purpose of this study is providing another concept model to evaluate the infringed patents. This study can provide a decision assist system to help drafting patent litigation strategy and determine the technology value

Keywords: Patent valuation, infringement litigations, stock value, artificial neural networks.

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Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

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A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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Authors: Ikaputra

Abstract:

This paper will focus on the concept of social capital for especially housing reconstruction Post Disaster. The context of the study is Indonesia and Yogyakarta Post Earthquake 2006 as a case, but it is expected that the concept can be adopted in general post disaster reconstruction. The discussion will begin by addressing issues on House Reconstruction Post Disaster in Indonesia and Yogyakarta; defining Social Capital as a concept for effective management capacity based on community; Social Capital Post Java Earthquake utilizing Gotong Royong—community mutual self-help, and Approach and Strategy towards Community-based Reconstruction.

Keywords: Community empowerment, Gotong Royong, post disaster, reconstruction, social capital, Yogyakarta-Indonesia.

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Authors: Xindong An, Kai Gu

Abstract:

Urban intensification is regarded as the prevalent strategy in many cities of the world to ease the pressures of urban sprawl and deliver sustainable development through increasing the density of built form and activities. However, within the context of intensive development, planning and design control measures that help to maintain and promote the character of existing residential environments have been slow to develop. This causes the possible loss of the character of an area that makes a place unique and distinctive. The purpose of this paper is to explore the way of identifying the character of an urban area for the planning of urban landscape in the implementation of intensification. By employing the theory of urban morphology, the concept of morphological region is used for the analysis and characterisation of the spatial structure of the urban landscape in terms of ground plans, building types, and building and land utilisation. The morphological mapping of the character of urban landscape is suggested, which lays a foundation for more sensitive planning of urban landscape changes.

Keywords: Character areas, urban intensification, urban morphology, urban landscape.

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Authors: Nagmani Lnu

Abstract:

Often, quality engineering refers to testing the applications that either have a User Interface (UI) or an Application Programming Interface (API). We often find mature test practices, standards, and automation regarding UI or API testing. However, another kind is present in almost all types of industries that deal with data in bulk and often get handled through something called a batch application. This is primarily an offline application companies develop to process large data sets that often deal with multiple business rules. The challenge gets more prominent when we try to automate batch testing. This paper describes the approaches taken to test a batch application from a financial industry to test the payment settlement process (a critical use case in all kinds of FinTech companies), resulting in 100% test automation in test creation and test execution. One can follow this approach for any other batch use cases to achieve a higher efficiency in their testing process.

Keywords: Batch testing, batch test automation, batch test strategy, payments testing, payments settlement testing.

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Authors: Jorge Maestre Vidal, Ana Lucila Sandoval Orozco, Luis Javier García Villalba

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With the increase in popularity of mobile devices, new and varied forms of malware have emerged. Consequently, the organizations for cyberdefense have echoed the need to deploy more effective defensive schemes adapted to the challenges posed by these recent monitoring environments. In order to contribute to their development, this paper presents a malware detection strategy for mobile devices based on sequence alignment algorithms. Unlike the previous proposals, only the system calls performed during the startup of applications are studied. In this way, it is possible to efficiently study in depth, the sequences of system calls executed by the applications just downloaded from app stores, and initialize them in a secure and isolated environment. As demonstrated in the performed experimentation, most of the analyzed malicious activities were successfully identified in their boot processes.

Keywords: Android, information security, intrusion detection systems, malware, mobile devices.

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Authors: M’hamed Outanoute, Mohamed Baslam, Belaid Bouikhalene

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The customers use the best compromise criterion between price and quality of service (QoS) to select or change their Service Provider (SP). The SPs share the same market and are competing to attract more customers to gain more profit. Due to the divergence of SPs interests, we believe that this situation is a non-cooperative game of price and QoS. The game converges to an equilibrium position known Nash Equilibrium (NE). In this work, we formulate a game theoretic framework for the dynamical behaviors of SPs. We use Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to find the price and QoS strategies that maximize the profit for each SP and illustrate the corresponding strategy in NE. In order to quantify how this NE point is performant, we perform a detailed analysis of the price of anarchy induced by the NE solution. Finally, we provide an extensive numerical study to point out the importance of considering price and QoS as a joint decision parameter.

Keywords: Pricing, QoS, Market share game, Genetic algorithms, Nash equilibrium, Learning, Price of anarchy.

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Authors: W. Schellong

Abstract:

Industry accounts for one-third of global final energy demand. Crossover technologies (e.g. motors, pumps, process heat, and air conditioning) play an important role in improving energy efficiency. These technologies are used in many applications independent of the production branch. Especially electrical power is used by drives, pumps, compressors, and lightning. The paper demonstrates the algorithm of the energy analysis by some selected case studies for typical industrial processes. The energy analysis represents an essential part of energy management systems (EMS). Generally, process control system (PCS) can support EMS. They provide information about the production process, and they organize the maintenance actions. Combining these tools into an integrated process allows the development of an energy critical equipment strategy. Thus, asset and energy management can use the same common data to improve the energy efficiency.

Keywords: Crossover technologies, data management, energy analysis, energy efficiency, process control.

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Authors: Hudli Mohd. Rameez, K.H.Inamdar

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Many organisations are nowadays interested to adopt lean manufacturing strategy that would enable them to compete in this competitive globalisation market. In this respect, it is necessary to assess the implementation of lean manufacturing in different organisations so that the important best practices can be identified. This paper describes the development of key areas which will be used to assess the adoption and implementation of lean manufacturing practices. There are some key areas developed to evaluate and reduce the most optimal projects so as to enhance their production efficiency and increase the purpose of the economic benefits of the manufacturing unit. Lean manufacturing is becoming lean enterprise by treating its customers and suppliers as partners. This gives the extra edge in today-s cost and time competitive markets. The organisation is becoming strong in all the conventional competition points. They are Price, Quality and Delivery. Lean enterprise owners can deliver high quality products quickly, with low price.

Keywords: Competitive points, implementation, Leanmanufacturing, tools and techniques

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Authors: Christine L. Cole

Abstract:

Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) often experience social-communication difficulties that negatively impact their social interactions with typical peers. However, unlike other age and disability groups, there is little intervention research to inform best practice for these students. One evidence-based strategy for younger students with ASD is peer-mediated intervention (PMI). PMI may be particularly promising for use with adolescents, as peers are readily available and are natural experts for encouraging authentic high school conversations. This paper provides a review of previous research that evaluated the use of PMI to improve the socialcommunication skills of students with ASD. Specific intervention features associated with positive student outcomes are identified and recommendations for future research are provided. Adolescents with ASD are targeted due the critical importance of social conversation at the high school level.

Keywords: Autism, peer-mediation, social communication, adolescents.

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Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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Authors: D. D. Wang, J.C. Lam, Z. H. Mai

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Controlled modification of appropriate sharpness for nanotips is of paramount importance to develop novel materials and functional devices at a nanometer resolution. Herein, we present a reliable and unique strategy of laser irradiation enhanced physicochemical etching to manufacture super sharp tungsten tips with reproducible shape and dimension as well as high yields (~80%). The corresponding morphology structure evolution of tungsten tips and laser-tip interaction mechanisms were systematically investigated and discussed using field emission scanning electron microscope (SEM) and physical optics statistics method with different fluences under 532 nm laser irradiation. This work paves the way for exploring more accessible metallic tips applications with tunable apex diameter and aspect ratio, and, furthermore, facilitates the potential sharpening enhancement technique for other materials used in a variety of nanoscale devices.

Keywords: Tungsten tip sharpening, Laser irradiation, Physicochemical etching, Light-matter interaction.

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Authors: Belabbas Yagoubi, Yahya Slimani

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Workload and resource management are two essential functions provided at the service level of the grid software infrastructure. To improve the global throughput of these software environments, workloads have to be evenly scheduled among the available resources. To realize this goal several load balancing strategies and algorithms have been proposed. Most strategies were developed in mind, assuming homogeneous set of sites linked with homogeneous and fast networks. However for computational grids we must address main new issues, namely: heterogeneity, scalability and adaptability. In this paper, we propose a layered algorithm which achieve dynamic load balancing in grid computing. Based on a tree model, our algorithm presents the following main features: (i) it is layered; (ii) it supports heterogeneity and scalability; and, (iii) it is totally independent from any physical architecture of a grid.

Keywords: Grid computing, load balancing, workload, tree based model.

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Authors: Ilze Gramatina, Jelena Zagorska, Evita Straumite, Svetlana Sarvi

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In the meat processing industry the substitution of meat with non-meat ingredients is considered an important strategy for reducing overall production costs. The main purpose of the current research was to evaluate differences in physical-chemical composition of cooked sausage with different legumes additions. Peas (Pisum sativum), beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) and lentil (Lens culinaris) were used in preparation of sausages. The legumes at proportion of 20% of the total weight of meat were added in sausages. The whole ingredients were mixed, filled into casing, compressed, cooked and cooled. After storage the samples were sensory evaluated. The sensory evaluation was carried out using the nine point hedonic scale and line scale. Sausages without legumes flour was used as control sample. The main conclusion of the current research the legumes flour can be successfully used for cooked sausages production.

Keywords: Legumes, cooked sausages.

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Authors: Sarah E. Stief, Anne Theresa Eidhoff, Markus Voeth

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Despite all progress firms are facing the increasing need to adapt and assimilate digital technologies to transform their business activities in order to pursue business development. By using new digital technologies, firms can implement major business improvements in order to stay competitive and foster new growth potentials. The corresponding phenomenon of digital transformation has received some attention in previous literature in respect to industries such as media and publishing. Nevertheless, there is a lack of understanding of the concept and its organization within firms. With the help of twenty-three in-depth field interviews with German experts responsible for their company’s digital transformation, we examined what digital transformation encompasses, how it is organized and which opportunities and challenges arise within firms. Our results indicate that digital transformation is an inevitable task for all firms, as it bears the potential to comprehensively optimize and reshape established business activities and can thus be seen as a strategy of business development.

Keywords: Business development, digitalization, digital strategies, digital transformation.

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Authors: Jun-Oh Kim, Seol-Min Yang, Seok-Heum Baek, Sangmo Kang

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In this paper, the shape design process is briefly discussed emphasizing the use of topology optimization in the conceptual design stage. The basic idea is to view feasible domains for sensitivity region concepts. In this method, the main process consists of two steps: as the design moves further inside the feasible domain using Taguchi method, and thus becoming more successful topology optimization, the sensitivity region becomes larger. In designing a double-eccentric butterfly valve, related to hydrodynamic performance and disc structure, are discussed where the use of topology optimization has proven to dramatically improve an existing design and significantly decrease the development time of a shape design. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis results demonstrate the validity of this approach.

Keywords: Double-eccentric butterfly valve, CFD, Topology optimization

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Authors: R. Monib, C. I. Goodier, A. Gibb

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This paper aims to investigate decision support strategies in the EC sector to determine the most appropriate degree of modularization. This is achieved through three oil and gas (O&G) and two power plant case studies via semi-structured interviews (n = 59 and n = 27, respectively), analysis of project documents, and case study-specific semi-structured validation interviews (n = 12 and n = 8). Terminology to distinguish degrees of modularization is proposed, along with a decision-making support checklist and a diagrammatic decision-making support figure. Results indicate that the EC sub-sectors were substantially more satisfied with the application of component, structural, or traditional modularization compared with system modularization for some types of modules. Key drivers for decisions on the degree of modularization vary across module types. This paper can help the EC sector determine the most suitable degree of modularization via a decision-making support strategy.

Keywords: Modularization, engineering construction, case study, decision support.

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: Demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design.

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