Search results for: Auto-Regressive Model

Authors: Narbada Prasad Gupta, Mithilesh Kumar

Abstract:

A compact Ultra Wide Band (UWB) antenna with coplanar waveguide feed has been designed and results are verified in this paper. The antenna has been designed on FR4 substrate with dielectric constant (εr) of 4.4 and dimensions of 32mm x 26mm x 0.8mm. The presented antenna shows return loss characteristics in the band of 3.1 to 10.6 GHz as prescribed by FCC, USA. Parametric studies have been done and results thus obtained have been presented. Simulated results have been verified on Rohde & Swartz VNA. The measured results are in good agreement with simulated results which make the presented antenna suitable to be used for wearable applications. Performance analysis of antenna has also been shown in the presence of three layered Human Arm model. Results obtained in presence of Human Arm model has been compared with that in free space.

Keywords: CPW feed, Human Arm model, UWB, wearable antenna.

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Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.

Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.

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Authors: S. Srinivas, N. Ramesh Babu

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This paper presents a model to predict the depth of penetration in polycrystalline ceramic material cut by abrasive waterjet. The proposed model considered the interaction of cylindrical jet with target material in upper region and neglected the role of threshold velocity in lower region. The results predicted with the proposed model are validated with the experimental results obtained with Silicon Carbide (SiC) blocks.

Keywords: Abrasive waterjet cutting, analytical modeling, ceramics, microcutting and intergranular cracking.

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Authors: G. Zahedi, H. Yaghoobi

Abstract:

Modeling of a heterogeneous industrial fixed bed reactor for selective dehydrogenation of heavy paraffin with Pt-Sn- Al2O3 catalyst has been the subject of current study. By applying mass balance, momentum balance for appropriate element of reactor and using pressure drop, rate and deactivation equations, a detailed model of the reactor has been obtained. Mass balance equations have been written for five different components. In order to estimate reactor production by the passage of time, the reactor model which is a set of partial differential equations, ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations has been solved numerically. Paraffins, olefins, dienes, aromatics and hydrogen mole percent as a function of time and reactor radius have been found by numerical solution of the model. Results of model have been compared with industrial reactor data at different operation times. The comparison successfully confirms validity of proposed model.

Keywords: Dehydrogenation, fixed bed reactor, modeling, linear alkyl benzene.

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Authors: Maria Grazia Albanesi, Riccardo Amadeo

Abstract:

This study presents a new model of the human image quality assessment process: the aim is to highlightthe foundations of the image quality metrics proposed in literature, by identifyingthe cognitive/physiological or mathematical principles of their development and the relation with the actual human quality assessment process. The model allows to createa novel categorization of objective and subjective image quality metrics. Our work includes an overview of the most used or effectiveobjective metrics in literature, and, for each of them, we underline its main characteristics, with reference to the rationale of the proposed model and categorization. From the results of this operation, we underline a problem that affects all the presented metrics: the fact that many aspects of human biasesare not taken in account at all. We then propose a possible methodology to address this issue.

Keywords: Eye-Tracking, image quality assessment metric, MOS, quality of user experience, visual perception.

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Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

Abstract:

This paper is to develop a fuzzy net present value (FNPV) method by taking vague cash flow and imprecise required rate of return into account for evaluating the value of the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) sport facilities. In order to clearly manifest a more realistic capital budgeting model based on the classical net present value (NPV) method, some uncertain financial elements in NPV formula will be fuzzified as triangular fuzzy numbers. Through the conscientious manipulation of fuzzy set theory, we will find that the proposed FNPV model is a more explicit extension of classical (crisp) model and could be more practicable for the financial managers to capture the essence of capital budgeting of sport facilities than non-fuzzy model.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets; Capital budgeting, Sport facility, Net present value (NPV), Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat

Abstract:

A hybrid quasi-steady thermal lattice Boltzmann model was used to study the combined effects of temperature and contact angle on the movement of slugs and droplets of oil in water (O/W) system flowing between two parallel plates. The model static contact angle due to the deposition of the O/W droplet on a flat surface with simulated hydrophilic characteristic at different fluid temperatures, matched very well the proposed theoretical calculation. Furthermore, the model was used to simulate the dynamic behavior of droplets and slugs deposited on the domain’s upper and lower surfaces, while subjected to parabolic flow conditions. The model accurately simulated the contact angle hysteresis for the dynamic droplets cases. It was also shown that at elevated temperatures the required power to transport the mixture diminished remarkably.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, contact angle, high viscosity ratio.

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Authors: Properties, Approximation Distribution Reductions in Multigranulation Rough Set Model

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Some properties of approximation sets are studied in multi-granulation optimist model in rough set theory using maximal compatible classes. The relationships between or among lower and upper approximations in single and multiple granulation are compared and discussed. Through designing Boolean functions and discernibility matrices in incomplete information systems, the lower and upper approximation sets and reduction in multi-granulation environments can be found. By using examples, the correctness of computation approach is consolidated. The related conclusions obtained are suitable for further investigating in multiple granulation RSM.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, maximal compatible class, multi-granulation rough set model, reduction.

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Authors: Sofia Ayouche, Rachid Ellaia, Rajae Aboulaich

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Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios; therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon curve and the NSS curve.

Keywords: Optimization, zero-coupon curve, Nelson-Siegel- Svensson, Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead Algorithm.

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Authors: S. Jursová, P. Pustějovská, S. Brožová, J. Bilík

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The paper deals with possibilities of interpretation of iron ore reducibility tests. It presents a mathematical model developed at Centre ENET, VŠB – Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic for an evaluation of metallurgical material of blast furnace feedstock such as iron ore, sinter or pellets. According to the data from the test, the model predicts its usage in blast furnace technology and its effects on production parameters of shaft aggregate. At the beginning, the paper sums up the general concept and experience in mathematical modelling of iron ore reduction. It presents basic equation for the calculation and the main parts of the developed model. In the experimental part, there is an example of usage of the mathematical model. The paper describes the usage of data for some predictive calculation. There are presented material, method of carried test of iron ore reducibility. Then there are graphically interpreted effects of used material on carbon consumption, rate of direct reduction and the whole reduction process.

Keywords: Blast furnace technology, iron ore reduction, mathematical model, prediction of iron ore reduction.

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Authors: Thitiporn Supasri, Natanee Vorayos, Piriya Thongchiew

Abstract:

Electrification is a complex process and governed by various parameters.  Modeling of power plant’s target efficiency or target heat rate is often formulated and compared with the actual values. This comparison not only implies the performance of the power plant but also reflects the energy losses possibly inherited in some of related equipment and processes. The current modeling of Coal-fired Mae Moh power plant was formulated at the first commissioning. Some of equipments were replaced due to its life time. Relatively outdated for 20 years, the utilization of the model is not accomplished. This work has focused on the development of the performance analysis model of aforementioned power plant according to the most updated and current working conditions. The model is more appropriate and shows accuracy in its analysis.  Losses are detected and measures are introduced such that reduction in energy consumption, related cost, and also environment impacts can be anticipated.

Keywords: Performance analysis model, Power plant modeling, Target heat rate, Target efficiency.

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Authors: Terezie Bartusková, Jitka Baňařová, Zuzana Kusněřová

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Importance of strategic planning is unquestionable. However, the practical implementation of a strategic plan faces too many obstacles. The aim of the article is explained the importance of strategic planning and to find how companies in Moravian-Silesian Region deal with strategic planning, and to introduce the model, which helps to set strategic goals in financial indicators area. This model should be part of the whole process of strategic planning and can be use to predict the future values of financial indicators of the company with regard to the factor, which influence these indicators.

Keywords: Planning of Potentials, Planning of Strategic Objectives, Portfolio Planning, Significant Factors, Strategic Planning.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng

Abstract:

A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.

Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.

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Authors: Khaled S. Abdallah, Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

Moving industries consume numerous resources and dispose masses of used packaging materials. Proper sorting, recycling and disposing the packaging materials is necessary to avoid a sever pollution disaster. This research paper presents a conceptual model to propose sustainable truck rental operations instead of the regular one. An optimization model was developed to select the locations of truck rental centers, collection sites, maintenance and repair sites, and identify the rental fees to be charged for all routes that maximize the total closed supply chain profits. Fixed costs of vehicle purchasing, costs of constructing collection centers and repair centers, as well as the fixed costs paid to use disposal and recycling centers are considered. Operating costs include the truck maintenance, repair costs as well as the cost of recycling and disposing the packing materials, and the costs of relocating the truck are presented in the model. A mixed integer model is developed followed by a simulation model to examine the factors affecting the operation of the model.

Keywords: Modeling, truck rental, supply chains management, simulation.

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Authors: E. Al Daoud

Abstract:

In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation.

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Authors: Hee Suk Seo, Tae Kyung Kim

Abstract:

As network components grow larger and more diverse, and as securing them on a host-by-host basis grow more difficult, more sites are turning to a network security model. We concentrate on controlling network access to various hosts and the services they offer, rather than on securing them one by one with a network security model. We present how the policy rules from vulnerabilities stored in SVDB (Simulation based Vulnerability Data Base) are inducted, and how to be used in PBN. In the network security environment, each simulation model is hierarchically designed by DEVS (Discrete EVent system Specification) formalism.

Keywords: SVDB, PBN, DEVS, Network security.

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Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

Abstract:

In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

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Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

Abstract:

The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: Data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation.

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

Abstract:

Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Long-memory, Gaussian process, Whittle estimator, normalization, volatility, value-at-risk.

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Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can

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This work investigates upsetting of the tri-metallic cylindrical billets both experimentally and analytically with a reduction ratio 30%. Steel, brass, and copper are used for the outer and outmost rings and aluminum for the inner core. Two different models have been designed to show material flow and the cavity took place over the two interfaces during forming after this reduction ratio. Each model has an outmost ring material as steel. Model 1 has an outer ring between the outmost ring and the solid core material as copper and Model 2 has a material as brass. Solid core is aluminum for each model. Billets were upset in press machine by using parallel flat dies. Upsetting load was recorded and compared for models and single billets. To extend the tests and compare with experimental procedure to a wider range of inner core and outer ring geometries, finite element model was performed. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. The aim is to show how contact between outmost ring, outer ring and the inner core are carried on throughout the upsetting process. Results have shown that, with changing in height, between outmost ring, outer ring and inner core, the Model 1 and Model 2 had very good interaction, and the contact surfaces of models had various interface behaviour. It is also observed that tri-metallic materials have lower weight but better mechanical properties than single materials. This can give an idea for using and producing these new materials for different purposes.

Keywords: Tri-metallic, upsetting, copper, brass, steel, aluminum.

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Authors: J. Mlýnek, R. Srb

Abstract:

This article is focused on the calculation of heat radiation intensity and its optimization on an aluminum mould surface. The inside of the mould is sprinkled with a special powder and its outside is heated by infra heaters located above the mould surface, up to a temperature of 250°C. By this way artificial leathers in the car industry are produced (e. g. the artificial leather on a car dashboard). A mathematical model of heat radiation of infra heaters on a mould surface is described in this paper. This model allows us to calculate a heat-intensity radiation on the mould surface for the concrete location of infra heaters above the mould surface. It is necessary to ensure approximately the same heat intensity radiation on the mould surface by finding a suitable location for the infra heaters, and in this way the same material structure and color of artificial leather. In the model we have used a genetic algorithm to optimize the radiation intensity on the mould surface. Experimental measured values for the heat radiation intensity by a sensor in the surroundings of an infra heater are used for the calculation procedures. A computational procedure was programmed in language Matlab.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, mathematical model of heat radiation, optimization of radiation intensity, software implementation

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Authors: Nurul Azma Zakaria, Masahiro Kimura, Noriko Matsumoto, Norihiko Yoshida

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The fast growth in complexity coupled with requests for shorter development periods for embedded systems are bringing demands towards a more effective, i.e. higher-abstract, design process for hardaware/software integrated design. In Software Engineering area, Model Driven Architecture (MDA) and Executable UML (xUML) has been accepted to bring further improvement in software design. This paper constructs MDA and xUML stepwise transformations from an abstract specification model to a more concrete implementation model using the refactoring technique for hardaware/software integrated design. This approach provides clear and structured models which enables quick exploration and synthesis, and early stage verification.

Keywords: Hardware/software integrated design, model driven architecture, executable UML, refactoring.

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo

Abstract:

Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.

Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

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Authors: T. T. Ntshakala, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Physical education (PE) is still neglected in schools despite its academic, social, psychological, and health benefits. Based on the assumption that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can contribute to the development of PE in schools, this study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of ICTs for PE in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of technology adoption theories and of ICT adoption factors for physical education. The technology adoption model that fitted to the best all ICT adoption factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. It was found that the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is the most adequate theoretical framework for the modeling of ICT adoption factors for physical education.

Keywords: Adoption factors, basic education, physical education, technology adoption theories.

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