Search results for: Index Address
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1605

Search results for: Index Address

975 Modeling Prices of Electricity Futures at EEX

Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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974 A Servo Control System Using the Loop Shaping Design Procedure

Authors: Naohiro Ban, Hiromitsu Ogawa, Manato Ono, Yoshihisa Ishida

Abstract:

This paper describes an expanded system for a servo system design by using the Loop Shaping Design Procedure (LSDP). LSDP is one of the H∞ design procedure. By conducting Loop Shaping with a compensator and robust stabilization to satisfy the index function, we get the feedback controller that makes the control system stable. In this paper, we propose an expanded system for a servo system design and apply to the DC motor. The proposed method performs well in the DC motor positioning control. It has no steady-state error in the disturbance response and it has robust stability.

Keywords: Loop Shaping Design Procedure (LSDP), servosystem, DC motor.

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973 A Graph-Based Approach for Placement of No-Replicated Databases in Grid

Authors: Cherif Haddad, Faouzi Ben Charrada

Abstract:

On a such wide-area environment as a Grid, data placement is an important aspect of distributed database systems. In this paper, we address the problem of initial placement of database no-replicated fragments in Grid architecture. We propose a graph based approach that considers resource restrictions. The goal is to optimize the use of computing, storage and communication resources. The proposed approach is developed in two phases: in the first phase, we perform fragment grouping using knowledge about fragments dependency and, in the second phase, we determine an efficient placement of the fragment groups on the Grid. We also show, via experimental analysis that our approach gives solutions that are close to being optimal for different databases and Grid configurations.

Keywords: Grid computing, Distributed systems, Data resourcesmanagement, Database systems, Database placement.

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972 Neural Network Motion Control of VTAV by NARMA-L2 Controller for Enhanced Situational Awareness

Authors: Igor Astrov, Natalya Berezovski

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for vectored thrust aerial vehicle (VTAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a neural network motion control procedure to address the dynamics variation and performance requirement difference of flight trajectory for a VTAV. This control strategy with using of NARMAL2 neurocontroller for chosen model of VTAV has been verified by simulation of take-off and forward maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast stabilization of motors, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: NARMA-L2 neurocontroller, situational awareness, vectored thrust aerial vehicle.

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971 RAPD Analysis of Genetic Diversity of Castor Bean

Authors: M. Vivodík, Ž. Balážová, Z. Gálová

Abstract:

The aim of this work was to detect genetic variability among the set of 40 castor genotypes using 8 RAPD markers. Amplification of genomic DNA of 40 genotypes, using RAPD analysis, yielded in 66 fragments, with an average of 8.25 polymorphic fragments per primer. Number of amplified fragments ranged from 3 to 13, with the size of amplicons ranging from 100 to 1200 bp. Values of the polymorphic information content (PIC) value ranged from 0.556 to 0.895 with an average of 0.784 and diversity index (DI) value ranged from 0.621 to 0.896 with an average of 0.798. The dendrogram based on hierarchical cluster analysis using UPGMA algorithm was prepared and analyzed genotypes were grouped into two main clusters and only two genotypes could not be distinguished. Knowledge on the genetic diversity of castor can be used for future breeding programs for increased oil production for industrial uses.

Keywords: Dendrogram, polymorphism, RAPD technique, Ricinus communis L.

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970 A Generic e-Tutor for Graphical Problems

Authors: B.W. Field

Abstract:

For a variety of safety and economic reasons, engineering undergraduates in Australia have experienced diminishing access to the real hardware that is typically the embodiment of their theoretical studies. This trend will delay the development of practical competence, decrease the ability to model and design, and suppress motivation. The author has attempted to address this concern by creating a software tool that contains both photographic images of real machinery, and sets of graphical modeling 'tools'. Academics from a range of disciplines can use the software to set tutorial tasks, and incorporate feedback comments for a range of student responses. An evaluation of the software demonstrated that students who had solved modeling problems with the aid of the electronic tutor performed significantly better in formal examinations with similar problems. The 2-D graphical diagnostic routines in the Tutor have the potential to be used in a wider range of problem-solving tasks.

Keywords: CAL, graphics, modeling, structural distillation, tutoring.

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969 Geotechnical Characteristics of Miocenemarl in the Region of Medea North-South Highway, Algeria

Authors: Y. Yongli, M. H. Aissa

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper aims for a geotechnical analysis based on experimental physical and mechanical characteristics of Miocene marl situated at Medea region in Algeria. More than 150 soil samples were taken in the investigation part of the North-South Highway which extends over than 53 km from Chiffa in the North to Berrouaghia in the South of Algeria. The analysis of data in terms of Atterberg limits, plasticity index, and clay content reflects an acceptable correlation justified by a high coefficient of regression which was compared with the previous works in the region. Finally, approximated equations that serve as a guideline for geotechnical design locally have been suggested.

Keywords: Correlation, geotechnical properties, Miocene marl, north-south highway.

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968 Static Voltage Stability Margin Enhancement Using SVC and TCSC

Authors: Mohammed Amroune, Hadi Sebaa, Tarek Bouktir

Abstract:

Reactive power limit of power system is one of the major causes of voltage instability. The only way to save the system from voltage instability is to reduce the reactive power load or add additional reactive power to reaching the point of voltage collapse. In recent times, the application of FACTS devices is a very effective solution to prevent voltage instability due to their fast and very flexible control. In this paper, voltage stability assessment with SVC and TCSC devices is investigated and compared in the modified IEEE 30-bus test system. The fast voltage stability indicator (FVSI) is used to identify weakest bus and to assess the voltage stability of power system.

Keywords: SVC, TCSC, Voltage stability, Fast Voltage Stability Index (FVSI), Reactive power.

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967 Sol-gel Synthesis and Optical Characterisation of TiO2 Thin Films for Photovoltaic Application

Authors: N. H. Arabi, Aicha Iratni, Talaighil Razika, Bruno Capoen, Mohamed Bouazaoui

Abstract:

TiO2 thin films have been prepared by the sol-gel dipcoating technique in order to elaborate antireflective thin films for monocrystalline silicon (mono-Si). The titanium isopropoxyde was chosen as a precursor with hydrochloric acid as a catalyser for preparing a stable solution. The optical properties have been tailored with varying the solution concentration, the withdrawn speed, and the heat-treatment. We showed that using a TiO2 single layer with 64.5 nm in thickness, heat-treated at 450°C or 300°C reduces the mono-Si reflection at a level lower than 3% over the broadband spectral domains [669-834] nm and [786-1006] nm respectively. Those latter performances are similar to the ones obtained with double layers of low and high refractive index glasses respectively.

Keywords: Dip coating, mono-Si, titanium oxide, thin film.

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966 Topology-Based Character Recognition Method for Coin Date Detection

Authors: Xingyu Pan, Laure Tougne

Abstract:

For recognizing coins, the graved release date is important information to identify precisely its monetary type. However, reading characters in coins meets much more obstacles than traditional character recognition tasks in the other fields, such as reading scanned documents or license plates. To address this challenging issue in a numismatic context, we propose a training-free approach dedicated to detection and recognition of the release date of the coin. In the first step, the date zone is detected by comparing histogram features; in the second step, a topology-based algorithm is introduced to recognize coin numbers with various font types represented by binary gradient map. Our method obtained a recognition rate of 92% on synthetic data and of 44% on real noised data.

Keywords: Coin, detection, character recognition, topology.

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965 A Hybrid P2P Storage Scheme Based on Erasure Coding and Replication

Authors: Usman Mahmood, Khawaja M. U. Suleman

Abstract:

A peer-to-peer storage system has challenges like; peer availability, data protection, churn rate. To address these challenges different redundancy, replacement and repair schemes are used. This paper presents a hybrid scheme of redundancy using replication and erasure coding. We calculate and compare the storage, access, and maintenance costs of our proposed scheme with existing redundancy schemes. For realistic behaviour of peers a trace of live peer-to-peer system is used. The effect of different replication, and repair schemes are also shown. The proposed hybrid scheme performs better than existing double coding hybrid scheme in all metrics and have an improved maintenance cost than hierarchical codes.

Keywords: Erasure Coding, P2P, Redundancy, Replication.

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964 A New Categorization of Image Quality Metrics Based On a Model of Human Quality Perception

Authors: Maria Grazia Albanesi, Riccardo Amadeo

Abstract:

This study presents a new model of the human image quality assessment process: the aim is to highlightthe foundations of the image quality metrics proposed in literature, by identifyingthe cognitive/physiological or mathematical principles of their development and the relation with the actual human quality assessment process. The model allows to createa novel categorization of objective and subjective image quality metrics. Our work includes an overview of the most used or effectiveobjective metrics in literature, and, for each of them, we underline its main characteristics, with reference to the rationale of the proposed model and categorization. From the results of this operation, we underline a problem that affects all the presented metrics: the fact that many aspects of human biasesare not taken in account at all. We then propose a possible methodology to address this issue.

Keywords: Eye-Tracking, image quality assessment metric, MOS, quality of user experience, visual perception.

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963 GMDH Modeling Based on Polynomial Spline Estimation and Its Applications

Authors: LI qiu-min, TIAN yi-xiang, ZHANG gao-xun

Abstract:

GMDH algorithm can well describe the internal structure of objects. In the process of modeling, automatic screening of model structure and variables ensure the convergence rate.This paper studied a new GMDH model based on polynomial spline  stimation. The polynomial spline function was used to instead of the transfer function of GMDH to characterize the relationship between the input variables and output variables. It has proved that the algorithm has the optimal convergence rate under some conditions. The empirical results show that the algorithm can well forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Keywords: spline, GMDH, nonparametric, bias, forecast.

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962 Web Application to Profiling Scientific Institutions through Citation Mining

Authors: Hector D. Cortes, Jesus A. del Rio, Esther O. Garcia, Miguel Robles

Abstract:

Recently the use of data mining to scientific bibliographic data bases has been implemented to analyze the pathways of the knowledge or the core scientific relevances of a laureated novel or a country. This specific case of data mining has been named citation mining, and it is the integration of citation bibliometrics and text mining. In this paper we present an improved WEB implementation of statistical physics algorithms to perform the text mining component of citation mining. In particular we use an entropic like distance between the compression of text as an indicator of the similarity between them. Finally, we have included the recently proposed index h to characterize the scientific production. We have used this web implementation to identify users, applications and impact of the Mexican scientific institutions located in the State of Morelos.

Keywords: Citation Mining, Text Mining, Science Impact

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961 Sensitive Analysis of the ZF Model for ABC Multi Criteria Inventory Classification

Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to consider other important criteria. From these models, we will consider a specific model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score, based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index, can affect the ABC-item classification. We will focus on items differently assigned to classes and then propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, Multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model.

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960 A Validation Technique for Integrated Ontologies

Authors: Neli P. Zlatareva

Abstract:

Ontology validation is an important part of web applications’ development, where knowledge integration and ontological reasoning play a fundamental role. It aims to ensure the consistency and correctness of ontological knowledge and to guarantee that ontological reasoning is carried out in a meaningful way. Existing approaches to ontology validation address more or less specific validation issues, but the overall process of validating web ontologies has not been formally established yet. As the size and the number of web ontologies continue to grow, more web applications’ developers will rely on the existing repository of ontologies rather than develop ontologies from scratch. If an application utilizes multiple independently created ontologies, their consistency must be validated and eventually adjusted to ensure proper interoperability between them. This paper presents a validation technique intended to test the consistency of independent ontologies utilized by a common application.

Keywords: Knowledge engineering, ontological reasoning, ontology validation, semantic web.

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959 Application and Limitation of Parallel Modelingin Multidimensional Sequential Pattern

Authors: Mahdi Esmaeili, Mansour Tarafdar

Abstract:

The goal of data mining algorithms is to discover useful information embedded in large databases. One of the most important data mining problems is discovery of frequently occurring patterns in sequential data. In a multidimensional sequence each event depends on more than one dimension. The search space is quite large and the serial algorithms are not scalable for very large datasets. To address this, it is necessary to study scalable parallel implementations of sequence mining algorithms. In this paper, we present a model for multidimensional sequence and describe a parallel algorithm based on data parallelism. Simulation experiments show good load balancing and scalable and acceptable speedup over different processors and problem sizes and demonstrate that our approach can works efficiently in a real parallel computing environment.

Keywords: Sequential Patterns, Data Mining, ParallelAlgorithm, Multidimensional Sequence Data

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958 Experimental Study of Strength Recovery from Residual Strength on Kaolin Clay

Authors: Deepak R. Bhat, Netra P. Bhandery, Ryuichi Yatabe

Abstract:

Strength recovery effect from the residual-state of shear is not well address in scientific literature. Torsional ring shear strength recovery tests on kaolin clay using rest periods up to 30 days are performed at the effective normal stress 100kN/m2. Test results shows that recovered strength measured in the laboratory is slightly noticeable after rest period of 3 days, but recovered strength lost after very small shear displacement. This paper mainly focused on the strength recovery phenomenon from the residual strength of kaolin clay based on torsional ring shear test results. Mechanisms of recovered strength are also discussed.

Keywords: Kaolin clay, Residual strength, Strength recovery, Torsional ring shear test.

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957 Experimental Verification of the Relationship between Physiological Indexes and the Presence or Absence of an Operation during E-learning

Authors: Masaki Omata, Shumma Hosokawa

Abstract:

An experiment to verify the relationships between physiological indexes of an e-learner and the presence or absence of an operation during e-learning is described. Electroencephalogram (EEG), hemoencephalography (HEG), skin conductance (SC), and blood volume pulse (BVP) values were measured while participants performed experimental learning tasks. The results show that there are significant differences between the SC values when reading with clicking on learning materials and the SC values when reading without clicking, and between the HEG ratio when reading (with and without clicking) and the HEG ratio when resting for four of five participants. We conclude that the SC signals can be used to estimate whether or not a learner is performing an active task and that the HEG ratios can be used to estimate whether a learner is learning.

Keywords: E-learning, physiological index, physiological signal, state of learning.

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956 Downlink Scheduling and Radio Resource Allocation in Adaptive OFDMA Wireless Communication Systems for User-Individual QoS

Authors: Lu Yanhui, Wang Chunming, Yin Changchuan, Yue Guangxin

Abstract:

In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive radio resource allocation (RRA) and packet scheduling in the downlink of a cellular OFDMA system, and propose a downlink multi-carrier proportional fair (MPF) scheduler and its joint with adaptive RRA algorithm to distribute radio resources among multiple users according to their individual QoS requirements. The allocation and scheduling objective is to maximize the total throughput, while at the same time maintaining the fairness among users. The simulation results demonstrate that the methods presented provide for user more explicit fairness relative to RRA algorithm, but the joint scheme achieves the higher sum-rate capacity with flexible parameters setting compared with MPF scheduler.

Keywords: OFDMA, adaptive radio resource allocation, scheduling, QoS.

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955 Spexin and Fetuin A in Morbid Obese Children

Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Spexin, expressed in the central nervous system, has attracted much interest in feeding behavior, obesity, diabetes, energy metabolism and cardiovascular functions. Fetuin A is known as the negative acute phase reactant synthesized in the liver. Eosinophils are early indicators of cardiometabolic complications. Patients with elevated platelet count, associated with hypercoagulable state in the body, are also more liable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In this study, the aim is to examine the profiles of spexin and fetuin A concomitant with the course of variations detected in eosinophil as well as platelet counts in morbid obese children. 34 children with normal-body mass index (N-BMI) and 51 morbid obese (MO) children participated in the study. Written-informed consent forms were obtained prior to the study. Institutional ethics committee approved the study protocol. Age- and sex-adjusted BMI percentile tables prepared by World Health Organization were used to classify healthy and obese children. Mean age ± SEM of the children were 9.3 ± 0.6 years and 10.7 ± 0.5 years in N-BMI and MO groups, respectively. Anthropometric measurements of the children were taken. BMI values were calculated from weight and height values. Blood samples were obtained after an overnight fasting. Routine hematologic and biochemical tests were performed. Within this context, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations were measured. Homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values were calculated. Spexin and fetuin A levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Data were evaluated from the statistical point of view. Statistically significant differences were found between groups in terms of BMI, fat mass index, INS, HOMA-IR and HDL-C. In MO group, all parameters increased as HDL-C decreased. Elevated concentrations in MO group were detected in eosinophils (p < 0.05) and platelets (p > 0.05). Fetuin A levels decreased in MO group (p > 0.05). However, decrease was statistically significant in spexin levels for this group (p < 0.05). In conclusion, these results have suggested that increases in eosinophils and platelets exhibit behavior as cardiovascular risk factors. Decreased fetuin A behaved as a risk factor suitable to increased risk for cardiovascular problems associated with the severity of obesity. Along with increased eosinophils, increased platelets and decreased fetuin A, decreased spexin was the parameter, which reflects best its possible participation in the early development of CVD risk in MO children.

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases, eosinophils, fetuin A, pediatric morbid obesity, platelets, spexin.

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954 Production of Glucose from the Hydrolysis of Cassava Residue using Bacteria Isolates from Thai Higher Termites

Authors: Pitcha Wongskeo, Pramoch Rangsunvigit, Sumaeth Chavadej

Abstract:

The possibility of using cassava residue containing 49.66% starch, 21.47% cellulose, 12.97% hemicellulose, and 21.86% lignin as a raw material to produce glucose using enzymatic hydrolysis was investigated. In the experiment, each reactor contained the cassava residue, bacteria cells, and production medium. The effects of particles size (40 mesh and 60 mesh) and strains of bacteria (A002 and M015) isolated from Thai higher termites, Microcerotermes sp., on the glucose concentration at 37°C were focused. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with a refractive index detector was used to determine the quantity of glucose. The maximum glucose concentration obtained at 37°C using strain A002 and 60 mesh of the cassava residue was 1.51 g/L at 10 h.

Keywords: Hydrolysis, termites, glucose, cassava

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953 A New Edit Distance Method for Finding Similarity in Dna Sequence

Authors: Patsaraporn Somboonsak, Mud-Armeen Munlin

Abstract:

The P-Bigram method is a string comparison methods base on an internal two characters-based similarity measure. The edit distance between two strings is the minimal number of elementary editing operations required to transform one string into the other. The elementary editing operations include deletion, insertion, substitution two characters. In this paper, we address the P-Bigram method to sole the similarity problem in DNA sequence. This method provided an efficient algorithm that locates all minimum operation in a string. We have been implemented algorithm and found that our program calculated that smaller distance than one string. We develop PBigram edit distance and show that edit distance or the similarity and implementation using dynamic programming. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using number edit and percentage similarity measures.

Keywords: Edit distance, String Matching, String Similarity

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952 Effects of Asphalt Modification with Nanomaterials on Fresh and Stored Bitumen

Authors: Ahmed W. Oda, Ahmed El-Desouky, Hassan Mahdy, Osama M. Moussa

Abstract:

Nanomaterials have many applications in the field of asphalt paving. Two locally produced nanomaterials were used in the asphalt binder modification. The nanomaterials used are Nanosilica (NS), and Nanoclay (NC). The virgin asphalt binder was characterized by the conventional tests. The bitumen was modified by 3%, 5% and 7% of NS and NC. The penetration index (PI), and the retaining penetration (RP) was calculated based on the results of the penetration and the softening point tests. The results show that the RP becomes 95.35% at 5% NS modified bitumen and reaches 97.56% when bitumen is modified with 3% NC. The results show significant improvement in the bitumen stiffness when modified by the two types of nanomaterials, either fresh or aged (stored).

Keywords: Bitumen, modified bitumen, aged, stored, nanomaterials.

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951 The Development of a Narrative Management System: Storytelling in Knowledge Management

Authors: Savita K.S, Hazwani H., Kalid K. S.

Abstract:

This paper presents a narrative management system for organizations to capture organization's tacit knowledge through stories. The intention of capturing tacit knowledge is to address the problem that comes with the mobility of workforce in organisation. Storytelling in knowledge management context is seen as a powerful management tool to communicate tacit knowledge in organization. This narrative management system is developed firstly to enable uploading of many types of knowledge sharing stories, from general to work related-specific stories and secondly, each video has comment functionality where knowledge users can post comments to other knowledge users. The narrative management system allows the stories to browse, search and view by the users. In the system, stories are stored in a video repository. Stories that were produced from this framework will improve learning, knowledge transfer facilitation and tacit knowledge quality in an organization.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, Storytelling, Stories, Tacit Knowledge

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950 Anti-Social Networking?

Authors: Jarrod Trevathan, Trina Myers

Abstract:

Social networking is one of the most successful and popular tools to emerge from the Web 2.0 era. However, the increased interconnectivity and access to peoples- personal lives and information has created a plethora of opportunities for the nefarious side of human nature to manifest. This paper categorizes and describes the major types of anti-social behavior and criminal activity that can arise through undisciplined use and/or misuse of social media. We specifically address identity theft, misrepresentation of information posted, cyber bullying, children and social networking, and social networking in the work place. Recommendations are provided for how to reduce the risk of being the victim of a crime or engaging in embarrassing behavior that could irrevocably harm one-s reputation either professionally or personally. We also discuss what responsibilities social networking companies have to protect their users and also what law enforcement and policy makers can do to help alleviate the problems.

Keywords: Identity theft, misrepresentation, cyber bullying, online scams.

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949 Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment Tools: A Conceptual Framework for Their Use in Building Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

Authors: Sally Naji, Julie Gwilliam

Abstract:

Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.

Keywords: Adaptive capacity, climate change, NSA tools, resilience, vulnerability.

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948 Network Analysis in a Natural Perturbed Ecosystem

Authors: Nelson F.F. Ebecken, Gilberto C. Pereira

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to explicit knowledge on the interactions between the chlorophyll-a and nine meroplankton larvae of epibenthonic fauna. The studied case is the Arraial do Cabo upwelling system, Southeastern of Brazil, which provides different environmental conditions. To assess this information a network approach based in probability estimative was used. Comparisons among the generated graphs are made in the light of different water masses, application of Shannon biodiversity index, and the closeness and betweenness centralities measurements. Our results show the main pattern among different water masses and how the core organisms belonging to the network skeleton are correlated to the main environmental variable. We conclude that the approach of complex networks is a promising tool for environmental diagnostic.

Keywords: Coastal upwelling, Ecological networks, Plankton - interactions, Environmental analysis.

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947 An Engineering Approach to Forecast Volatility of Financial Indices

Authors: Irwin Ma, Tony Wong, Thiagas Sankar

Abstract:

By systematically applying different engineering methods, difficult financial problems become approachable. Using a combination of theory and techniques such as wavelet transform, time series data mining, Markov chain based discrete stochastic optimization, and evolutionary algorithms, this work formulated a strategy to characterize and forecast non-linear time series. It attempted to extract typical features from the volatility data sets of S&P100 and S&P500 indices that include abrupt drops, jumps and other non-linearity. As a result, accuracy of forecasting has reached an average of over 75% surpassing any other publicly available results on the forecast of any financial index.

Keywords: Discrete stochastic optimization, genetic algorithms, genetic programming, volatility forecast

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946 The Comparison of Competitiveness of Selected Countries of the European Economic Area

Authors: Ingrid Majerová, Michaela Horúcková

Abstract:

The concept of competitiveness is currently very frequently used term. However, the interpretation of its essence is different. In this paper, one of the many concepts of competitiveness will be analyzed and that is macroeconomic competitiveness, which is understood as a process, which is based on the productivity growth through the growth of key macroeconomic indicators such as standards of living and employment, where all of these variables must have a sustainable basis. Given the competition is a relative quantity it must be constantly compared with the development of competitiveness in other economies or regions. And this comparison method is also used in the article that compares the macrocompetitiveness of selected economies of the European Economic Area – the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and Germany. The aim of the paper is to verify the hypothesis concerning the direct correlation between the size of the economy and its competitiveness.

Keywords: Comparison, Competitiveness, European Economic Area, Global Competitiveness Index, Immeasurable Indicators of Competitiveness, Macro-competitiveness.

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