Search results for: risk identification

Authors: Sandipan Chakroborty, Goutam Saha

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A state of the art Speaker Identification (SI) system requires a robust feature extraction unit followed by a speaker modeling scheme for generalized representation of these features. Over the years, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) modeled on the human auditory system has been used as a standard acoustic feature set for speech related applications. On a recent contribution by authors, it has been shown that the Inverted Mel- Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (IMFCC) is useful feature set for SI, which contains complementary information present in high frequency region. This paper introduces the Gaussian shaped filter (GF) while calculating MFCC and IMFCC in place of typical triangular shaped bins. The objective is to introduce a higher amount of correlation between subband outputs. The performances of both MFCC & IMFCC improve with GF over conventional triangular filter (TF) based implementation, individually as well as in combination. With GMM as speaker modeling paradigm, the performances of proposed GF based MFCC and IMFCC in individual and fused mode have been verified in two standard databases YOHO, (Microphone Speech) and POLYCOST (Telephone Speech) each of which has more than 130 speakers.

Keywords: Gaussian Filter, Triangular Filter, Subbands, Correlation, MFCC, IMFCC, GMM.

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Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: Forest risk, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso.

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Authors: A. I. Alajtal, H. G. M. Edwards, M. A. Elbagermi

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Raman spectroscopy is currently a part of the instrumentation suite of the ESA ExoMars mission for the remote detection of life signatures in the Martian surface and subsurface. Terrestrial analogues of Martian sites have been identified and the biogeological modifications incurred as a result of extremophilic activity have been studied. Analytical instrumentation protocols for the unequivocal detection of biomarkers in suitable geological matrices are critical for future unmanned explorations, including the forthcoming ESA ExoMars mission to search for life on Mars scheduled for 2018 and Raman spectroscopy is currently a part of the Pasteur instrumentation suite of this mission. Here, Raman spectroscopy using 785nm excitation was evaluated for determining various concentrations of beta-carotene in admixture with polyaromatic hydrocarbons and usnic acid have been investigated by Raman microspectrometry to determine the lowest levels detectable in simulation of their potential identification remotely in geobiological conditions in Martian scenarios. Information from this study will be important for the development of a miniaturized Raman instrument for targetting Martian sites where the biosignatures of relict or extant life could remain in the geological record.

Keywords: Raman spectroscopy, Mars-analog, Beta-carotene, PAHs.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Ahmed A. Khamis, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz

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The effect of statins dose intensity (SDI) on glycemic control in patients with existing diabetes is unclear. Also, there are many contradictory findings were reported in the literature; thus, it is limiting the possibility to draw conclusions. This project was designed to compare the effect of SDI on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) control in outpatients with Type 2 diabetes in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, between July 2015 and August 2016. A prospective cohort study was conducted, where records of 345 patients with Type 2 diabetes (Moderate-SDI group 289 patients and high-SDI cohort 56 patients) were reviewed to identify demographics and laboratory tests. The target of glycemic control (HbA1c < 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, and the results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 289 moderate-SDI cohorts with a mean age of 57.3 ± 12.4 years, only 86 (29.8%) cases were shown to have controlled glycemia, while there were 203 (70.2%) cases with uncontrolled glycemia with confidence interval (CI) of 95% (6.2–10.8). On the other hand, the high-SDI group of 56 patients with Type 2 diabetes with a mean age 57.7±12.4 years is distributed among 11 (19.6%) patients with controlled diabetes, and 45 (80.4%) of them had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (7.1–11.9). The study has demonstrated that the relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in patients with Type 2 diabetes that used high-SDI is 1.15, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) is 15%. The absolute risk (AR) is 10.2%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) is 10. Outpatients with Type 2 diabetes who use high-SDI of statin have a higher risk of uncontrolled glycemia than outpatients who had been treated with a moderate-SDI.

Keywords: Cohort study, diabetes control, dose intensity, HbA1c, Malaysia, statin, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled glycemia.

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Authors: J. Bernasovská, R. Lohajová Behulová, E. Petrejčiková, I. Boroňová, I. Bernasovský

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Y chromosome microdeletions are the most common genetic cause of male infertility and screening for these microdeletions in azoospermic or severely oligospermic men is now standard practice. Analysis of the Y chromosome in men with azoospermia or severe oligozoospermia has resulted in the identification of three regions in the euchromatic part of the long arm of the human Y chromosome (Yq11) that are frequently deleted in men with otherwise unexplained spermatogenic failure. PCR analysis of microdeletions in the AZFa, AZFb and AZFc regions of the human Y chromosome is an important screening tool. The aim of this study was to analyse the type of microdeletions in men with fertility disorders in Slovakia. We evaluated 227 patients with azoospermia and with normal karyotype. All patient samples were analyzed cytogenetically. For PCR amplification of sequence-tagged sites (STS) of the AZFa, AZFb and AZFc regions of the Y chromosome was used Devyser AZF set. Fluorescently labeled primers for all markers in one multiplex PCR reaction were used and for automated visualization and identification of the STS markers we used genetic analyzer ABi 3500xl (Life Technologies). We reported 13 cases of deletions in the AZF region 5,73%. Particular types of deletions were recorded in each region AZFa,b,c .The presence of microdeletions in the AZFc region was the most frequent. The study confirmed that percentage of microdeletions in the AZF region is low in Slovak azoospermic patients, but important from a prognostic view.

Keywords: AZF, male infertility, microdeletions, Y chromosome.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. D. Askerov, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

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In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.

Keywords: Gas turbine engines, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy statistics.

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Authors: S. Jarernprasert, E. Bazan-Zurita, P. C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: Seismic, Directionality, In-Structure Response Spectra, Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

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Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: Gender based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, young women, Risky sexual behavior.

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Authors: Sohrab Khanmohammadi, Raana Soltani Zarrin

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In this paper, a heuristic method for simultaneous rescue robot path-planning and mission scheduling is introduced based on project management techniques, multi criteria decision making and artificial potential fields path-planning. Groups of injured people are trapped in a disastrous situation. These people are categorized into several groups based on the severity of their situation. A rescue robot, whose ultimate objective is reaching injured groups and providing preliminary aid for them through a path with minimum risk, has to perform certain tasks on its way towards targets before the arrival of rescue team. A decision value is assigned to each target based on the whole degree of satisfaction of the criteria and duties of the robot toward the target and the importance of rescuing each target based on their category and the number of injured people. The resulted decision value defines the strength of the attractive potential field of each target. Dangerous environmental parameters are defined as obstacles whose risk determines the strength of the repulsive potential field of each obstacle. Moreover, negative and positive energies are assigned to the targets and obstacles, which are variable with respects to the factors involved. The simulation results show that the generated path for two cases studies with certain differences in environmental conditions and other risk factors differ considerably.

Keywords: Artificial potential field, GERT, path planning

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Authors: Nader Nabhani, Amir Tofighi

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Nanotechnology is the science of creating, using and manipulating objects which have at least one dimension in range of 0.1 to 100 nanometers. In other words, nanotechnology is reconstructing a substance using its individual atoms and arranging them in a way that is desirable for our purpose. The main reason that nanotechnology has been attracting attentions is the unique properties that objects show when they are formed at nano-scale. These differing characteristics that nano-scale materials show compared to their nature-existing form is both useful in creating high quality products and dangerous when being in contact with body or spread in environment. In order to control and lower the risk of such nano-scale particles, the main following three topics should be considered: 1) First of all, these materials would cause long term diseases that may show their effects on body years after being penetrated in human organs and since this science has become recently developed in industrial scale not enough information is available about their hazards on body. 2) The second is that these particles can easily spread out in environment and remain in air, soil or water for very long time, besides their high ability to penetrate body skin and causing new kinds of diseases. 3) The third one is that to protect body and environment against the danger of these particles, the protective barriers must be finer than these small objects and such defenses are hard to accomplish. This paper will review, discuss and assess the risks that human and environment face as this new science develops at a high rate.

Keywords: Nanotechnology, risk assessment, environment.

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Authors: Saeed Safari Dolatabad, Rajab Choukan

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Selection of maize (Zea mays) hybrids with wide adaptability across diverse farming environments is important, prior to recommending them to achieve a high rate of hybrid adoption. Grain yield of 14 maize hybrids, tested in a randomized completeblock design with four replicates across 22 environments in Iran, was analyzed using site regression (SREG) stability model. The biplot technique facilitates a visual evaluation of superior genotypes, which is useful for cultivar recommendation and mega-environment identification. The objectives of this study were (i) identification of suitable hybrids with both high mean performance and high stability (ii) to determine mega-environments for maize production in Iran. Biplot analysis identifies two mega-environments in this study. The first mega-environments included KRM, KSH, MGN, DZF A, KRJ, DRB, DZF B, SHZ B, and KHM, where G10 hybrid was the best performing hybrid. The second mega-environment included ESF B, ESF A, and SHZ A, where G4 hybrid was the best hybrid. According to the ideal-hybrid biplot, G10 hybrid was better than all other hybrids, followed by the G1 and G3 hybrids. These hybrids were identified as best hybrids that have high grain yield and high yield stability. GGE biplot analysis provided a framework for identifying the target testing locations that discriminates genotypes that are high yielding and stable.

Keywords: Zea mays L, GGE biplot, Multi-environment trials, Yield stability.

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor while others can cause huge impact on a player’s career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player’s number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: Injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer.

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Authors: Jatinderkumar R. Saini, Apurva A. Desai

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e-mail has become an important means of electronic communication but the viability of its usage is marred by Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE) messages. UBE consists of many types like pornographic, virus infected and 'cry-for-help' messages as well as fake and fraudulent offers for jobs, winnings and medicines. UBE poses technical and socio-economic challenges to usage of e-mails. To meet this challenge and combat this menace, we need to understand UBE. Towards this end, the current paper presents a content-based textual analysis of nearly 3000 winnings-announcing UBE. Technically, this is an application of Text Parsing and Tokenization for an un-structured textual document and we approach it using Bag Of Words (BOW) and Vector Space Document Model techniques. We have attempted to identify the most frequently occurring lexis in the winnings-announcing UBE documents. The analysis of such top 100 lexis is also presented. We exhibit the relationship between occurrence of a word from the identified lexisset in the given UBE and the probability that the given UBE will be the one announcing fake winnings. To the best of our knowledge and survey of related literature, this is the first formal attempt for identification of most frequently occurring lexis in winningsannouncing UBE by its textual analysis. Finally, this is a sincere attempt to bring about alertness against and mitigate the threat of such luring but fake UBE.

Keywords: Lexis, Unsolicited Bulk e-mail (UBE), Vector SpaceDocument Model, Winnings, Lottery

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J. Bernasovská, J. Kmec, E. Petrejčíková

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Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a severe cardiovascular disorder characterized by progressive systolic dysfunction due to cardiac chamber dilatation and inefficient myocardial contractility often leading to chronic heart failure. Recently, a genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on DCM indicate that the ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 single nucleotide polymorphism is associated with DCM. The aim of the study was to identify the distribution of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism in 50 Slovak patients with DCM and 80 healthy control subjects using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Risk factors detected at baseline in each group included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, diabetes and blood pressure. The mean age of patients with DCM was 52.9±6.3 years; the mean age of individuals in control group was 50.3±8.9 years. The distribution of investigated genotypes of rs10927875 polymorphism within ZBTB17 gene in the cohort of Slovak patients with DCM was as follows: CC (38.8%), CT (55.1%), TT (6.1%), in controls: CC (43.8%), CT (51.2%), TT (5.0%). The risk allele T was more common among the patients with dilated cardiomyopathy than in normal controls (33.7% versus 30.6%). The differences in genotype or allele frequencies of ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism were not statistically significant (p=0.6908; p=0.6098). The results of this study suggest that ZBTB17 gene rs10927875 polymorphism may be a risk factor for susceptibility to DCM in Slovak patients with DCM. Studies of numerous files and additional functional investigations are needed to fully understand the roles of genetic associations.

Keywords: Dilated cardiomyopathy, SNP polymorphism, ZBTB17 gene.

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Authors: Masamitsu Chikaraishi, Mutsuto Kawahara

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This paper focuses on a technique for identifying the geological boundary of the ground strata in front of a tunnel excavation site using the first order adjoint method based on the optimal control theory. The geological boundary is defined as the boundary which is different layers of elastic modulus. At tunnel excavations, it is important to presume the ground situation ahead of the cutting face beforehand. Excavating into weak strata or fault fracture zones may cause extension of the construction work and human suffering. A theory for determining the geological boundary of the ground in a numerical manner is investigated, employing excavating blasts and its vibration waves as the observation references. According to the optimal control theory, the performance function described by the square sum of the residuals between computed and observed velocities is minimized. The boundary layer is determined by minimizing the performance function. The elastic analysis governed by the Navier equation is carried out, assuming the ground as an elastic body with linear viscous damping. To identify the boundary, the gradient of the performance function with respect to the geological boundary can be calculated using the adjoint equation. The weighed gradient method is effectively applied to the minimization algorithm. To solve the governing and adjoint equations, the Galerkin finite element method and the average acceleration method are employed for the spatial and temporal discretizations, respectively. Based on the method presented in this paper, the different boundary of three strata can be identified. For the numerical studies, the Suemune tunnel excavation site is employed. At first, the blasting force is identified in order to perform the accuracy improvement of analysis. We identify the geological boundary after the estimation of blasting force. With this identification procedure, the numerical analysis results which almost correspond with the observation data were provided.

Keywords: Parameter identification, finite element method, average acceleration method, first order adjoint equation method, weighted gradient method, geological boundary, navier equation, optimal control theory.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello, Ferdinando Montemari

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Flapping Dynamics, Flight Dynamics, System Identification, Tilt-Rotor Modeling and Simulation.

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: Cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation.

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Authors: Alexandru Epureanu, Virgil Teodor

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One of the main research directions in CAD/CAM machining area is the reducing of machining time. The feedrate scheduling is one of the advanced techniques that allows keeping constant the uncut chip area and as sequel to keep constant the main cutting force. They are two main ways for feedrate optimization. The first consists in the cutting force monitoring, which presumes to use complex equipment for the force measurement and after this, to set the feedrate regarding the cutting force variation. The second way is to optimize the feedrate by keeping constant the material removal rate regarding the cutting conditions. In this paper there is proposed a new approach using an extended database that replaces the system model. The feedrate scheduling is determined based on the identification of the reconfigurable machine tool, and the feed value determination regarding the uncut chip section area, the contact length between tool and blank and also regarding the geometrical roughness. The first stage consists in the blank and tool monitoring for the determination of actual profiles. The next stage is the determination of programmed tool path that allows obtaining the piece target profile. The graphic representation environment models the tool and blank regions and, after this, the tool model is positioned regarding the blank model according to the programmed tool path. For each of these positions the geometrical roughness value, the uncut chip area and the contact length between tool and blank are calculated. Each of these parameters are compared with the admissible values and according to the result the feed value is established. We can consider that this approach has the following advantages: in case of complex cutting processes the prediction of cutting force is possible; there is considered the real cutting profile which has deviations from the theoretical profile; the blank-tool contact length limitation is possible; it is possible to correct the programmed tool path so that the target profile can be obtained. Applying this method, there are obtained data sets which allow the feedrate scheduling so that the uncut chip area is constant and, as a result, the cutting force is constant, which allows to use more efficiently the machine tool and to obtain the reduction of machining time.

Keywords: Reconfigurable machine tool, system identification, uncut chip area, cutting conditions scheduling.

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Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: Banks, default risk, Italian Guarantee Fund, mutual guarantee institutions.

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Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Fractional quadratic programming, Markowitz model, Portfolio optimization, Transaction costs.

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Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Maria J. Alves, Sofia Cunha

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Vector-borne diseases are transmitted to humans by mosquitos, sandflies, bugs, ticks, and other vectors. Some are re-transmitted between vectors, if the infected human has a new contact when his levels of infection are high. The vector is infected for lifetime and can transmit infectious diseases not only between humans but also from animals to humans. Some vector borne diseases are very disabling and globally account for more than one million deaths worldwide. The mosquitoes from the complex Culex pipiens sl. are the most abundant in Portugal, and we dispose in this moment of a data set from the surveillance program that has been carried on since 2006 across the country. All mosquitos’ species are included, but the large coverage of Culex pipiens sl. and its importance for public health make this vector an interesting candidate to assess risk of disease amplification. This work focus on ports and airports identified as key areas of high density of vectors. Mosquitoes being ectothermic organisms, the main factor for vector survival and pathogen development is temperature. Minima and maxima local air temperatures for each area of interest are averaged by month from data gathered on a daily basis at the national network of meteorological stations, and interpolated in a geographic information system (GIS). The range of temperatures ideal for several pathogens are known and this work shows how to use it with the meteorological data in each port and airport facility, to focus an efficient implementation of countermeasures and reduce simultaneously risk transmission and mitigation costs. The results show an increased alert with decreasing latitude, which corresponds to higher minimum and maximum temperatures and a lower amplitude range of the daily temperature.

Keywords: Human health, risk assessment, risk management, vector-borne diseases.

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Christina Koenig, Nico Schoen, Markus Wellensiek

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Identification and selection of appropriate product and manufacturing technologies are key factors for competitiveness and market success of technology-based companies. Therefore, many companies perform technology intelligence (TI) activities to ensure the identification of evolving technologies at the right time. Technology monitoring is one of the three base activities of TI, besides scanning and scouting. As the technological progress is accelerating, more and more technologies are being developed. Against the background of limited resources it is therefore necessary to focus TI activities. In this paper we propose a concept for defining appropriate search fields for technology monitoring. This limitation of search space leads to more concentrated monitoring activities. The concept will be introduced and demonstrated through an anonymized case study conducted within an industry project at the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Technology IPT. The described concept provides a customized monitoring approach, which is suitable for use in technology-oriented companies. It is shown in this paper that the definition of search fields and search tasks are suitable methods to define topics of interest and thus to align monitoring activities. Current as well as planned product, production and material technologies and existing skills, capabilities and resources form the basis for derivation of relevant search areas. To further improve the concept of technology monitoring the proposed concept should be extended during future research e.g. by the definition of relevant monitoring parameters.

Keywords: Monitoring radar, search field, technology intelligence, technology monitoring.

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Authors: Jin-O Kim, Hyun-Il Son

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As the electrical power industry is restructured, the electrical power exchange is becoming extended. One of the key information used to determine how much power can be transferred through the network is known as available transfer capability (ATC). To calculate ATC, traditional deterministic approach is based on the severest case, but the approach has the complexity of procedure. Therefore, novel approach for ATC calculation is proposed using cost-optimization method in this paper, and is compared with well-being method and risk-benefit method. This paper proposes the optimal transfer capability of HVDC system between mainland and a separated island in Korea through these three methods. These methods will consider production cost, wheeling charge through HVDC system and outage cost with one depth (N-1 contingency)

Keywords: ATC, power system interconnection, well-being method, cost-optimization method, risk-benefit analysis, outage cost.

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Authors: A. Baith Mohamed, Ayman Abdel-Hamid, Kareem Youssri Mohamed

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Current proposals for E-passport or ID-Card is similar to a regular passport with the addition of tiny contactless integrated circuit (computer chip) inserted in the back cover, which will act as a secure storage device of the same data visually displayed on the photo page of the passport. In addition, it will include a digital photograph that will enable biometric comparison, through the use of facial recognition technology at international borders. Moreover, the e-passport will have a new interface, incorporating additional antifraud and security features. However, its problems are reliability, security and privacy. Privacy is a serious issue since there is no encryption between the readers and the E-passport. However, security issues such as authentication, data protection and control techniques cannot be embedded in one process. In this paper, design and prototype implementation of an improved E-passport reader is presented. The passport holder is authenticated online by using GSM network. The GSM network is the main interface between identification center and the e-passport reader. The communication data is protected between server and e-passport reader by using AES to encrypt data for protection will transferring through GSM network. Performance measurements indicate a 19% improvement in encryption cycles versus previously reported results.

Keywords: RFID "Radio Frequency Identification", EPC"Electronic Product Code", ICAO "International Civil Aviation Organization", IFF "Identify Friend or Foe"

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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A model is presented to find the optimal design of the mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty cost and risk.

Keywords: Reliability, Mixed warranty policy, Optimization, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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Authors: Hariton N. Costin, Iulian Ciocoiu, Tudor Barbu, Cristian Rotariu

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In this paper three different approaches for person verification and identification, i.e. by means of fingerprints, face and voice recognition, are studied. Face recognition uses parts-based representation methods and a manifold learning approach. The assessment criterion is recognition accuracy. The techniques under investigation are: a) Local Non-negative Matrix Factorization (LNMF); b) Independent Components Analysis (ICA); c) NMF with sparse constraints (NMFsc); d) Locality Preserving Projections (Laplacianfaces). Fingerprint detection was approached by classical minutiae (small graphical patterns) matching through image segmentation by using a structural approach and a neural network as decision block. As to voice / speaker recognition, melodic cepstral and delta delta mel cepstral analysis were used as main methods, in order to construct a supervised speaker-dependent voice recognition system. The final decision (e.g. “accept-reject" for a verification task) is taken by using a majority voting technique applied to the three biometrics. The preliminary results, obtained for medium databases of fingerprints, faces and voice recordings, indicate the feasibility of our study and an overall recognition precision (about 92%) permitting the utilization of our system for a future complex biometric card.

Keywords: Biometry, image processing, pattern recognition, speech analysis.

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Authors: E. C. Mattos, V. S. M. G. Daros, R. Dal Col, A. L. Nascimento

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The aim of this study is to present the results of a retrospective survey on the foreign matter found in foods analyzed at the Adolfo Lutz Institute, from July 2001 to July 2015. All the analyses were conducted according to the official methods described on Association of Official Agricultural Chemists (AOAC) for the micro analytical procedures and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the macro analytical procedures. The results showed flours, cereals and derivatives such as baking and pasta products were the types of food where foreign matters were found more frequently followed by condiments and teas. Fragments of stored grains insects, its larvae, nets, excrement, dead mites and rodent excrement were the most foreign matter found in food. Besides, foreign matters that can cause a physical risk to the consumer’s health such as metal, stones, glass, wood were found but rarely. Miscellaneous (shell, sand, dirt and seeds) were also reported. There are a lot of extraneous materials that are considered unavoidable since are something inherent to the product itself, such as insect fragments in grains. In contrast, there are avoidable extraneous materials that are less tolerated because it is preventable with the Good Manufacturing Practice. The conclusion of this work is that although most extraneous materials found in food are considered unavoidable it is necessary to keep the Good Manufacturing Practice throughout the food processing as well as maintaining a constant surveillance of the production process in order to avoid accidents that may lead to occurrence of these extraneous materials in food.

Keywords: Food contamination, extraneous materials, foreign matter, surveillance.

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Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: Coregionalization, ordinary cokriging, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, soil heavy metals, risk maps, spatial distribution.

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