Search results for: impact assessment

Authors: B. Kettana

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Nowadays, financial and economic crises are growing more and reach more countries and sectors. These events have, as a result, a considerable impact on the activities of the firms which think unstable and in danger. But besides this heavy uncertainty which weighs on the different firms, the family firm, object of our research, is not only confronted with these external difficulties but also with an internal challenge and of size: that of transmission. Indeed, the transmission of an organization from one generation to another can succeed as it can fail; leaving considerable damage. Our research registers as part of these problems since we tried to understand relation between the behavior of two main actors of the process of succession, predecessor and successor; and the success of transmission.

Keywords: Family business, transmission, success, predecessor, successor.

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Authors: A. R. Azrin Hani, R. Ahmad, M. Mariatti

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Textile structures are engineered and fabricated to meet worldwide structural applications. Nevertheless, research varying textile structure on natural fibre as composite reinforcement was found to be very limited. Most of the research is focusing on short fibre and random discontinuous orientation of the reinforcement structure. Realizing that natural fibre (NF) composite had been widely developed to be used as synthetic fibre composite replacement, this research attempted to examine the influence of woven and cross-ply laminated structure towards its mechanical performances. Laminated natural fibre composites were developed using hand lay-up and vacuum bagging technique. Impact and flexural strength were investigated as a function of fibre type (coir and kenaf) and reinforcement structure (imbalanced plain woven, 0°/90° cross-ply and +45°/-45° cross-ply). Multi-level full factorial design of experiment (DOE) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was employed to impart data as to how fibre type and reinforcement structure parameters affect the mechanical properties of the composites. This systematic experimentation has led to determination of significant factors that predominant influences the impact and flexural properties of the textile composites. It was proven that both fibre type and reinforcement structure demonstrated significant difference results. Overall results indicated that coir composite and woven structure exhibited better impact and flexural strength. Yet, cross-ply composite structure demonstrated better fracture resistance.

Keywords: Cross-ply composite, Flexural strength, Impact strength, Textile natural fibre composite, Woven composite.

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Authors: A. Bahar Ganiyeva, M. Sabuhi Tanriverdiyev

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The article analyzes state support and policy mechanisms aimed at driving tourism as one of the vibrant and rapidly developing economies. State programs and long-range strategic roadmaps and previous programs execution, results and their impact on the particular countries economy have been raised during the research. This theme provides a useful framework for discussions with a wider range of stakeholders as the implications arising are of importance both for academics and practitioners engaged in hospitality and tourism development and research. The impact that tourism has on sustainable regional development in emerging markets is highly substantial. For Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, and Russia, with their rich natural resources and cultural heritage, tourism can be an important basis for economic expansion, and a way to form an acceptable image of the countries as safe, open, hospitable, and complex.

Keywords: Sustainable tourism, hospitality, destination, strategic roadmap, tourism, economy, growth, state support, mechanism, policy formation, state program.

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Authors: M. Cañada-Soriano, C. Aparicio-Fernández, P. Sebastián Ferrer Gisbert, M. Val Field, J.-L. Vivancos-Bono

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The lack of insulation along with the existence of air leakages constitute a meaningful impact on the energy performance of buildings. Both of them lead to increases in the energy demand through additional heating and/or cooling loads. Additionally, they cause thermal discomfort. In order to quantify these uncontrolled air currents, the Blower Door test can be used. It is a standardized procedure that determines the airtightness of a space by characterizing the rate of air leakages through the envelope surface. In this sense, the low-energy buildings complying with the Passive House design criteria are required to achieve high levels of airtightness. Due to the invisible nature of air leakages, additional tools are often considered to identify where the infiltrations take place such as the infrared thermography. The aim of this study is to assess the airtightness of a typical Mediterranean dwelling house, refurbished under the Passive House standard, using the Blower Door test. Moreover, the building energy performance modelling tools TRNSYS (TRaNsient System Simulation program) and TRNFlow (TRaNsient Flow) have been used to estimate the energy demand in different scenarios. In this sense, a sequential implementation of three different energy improvement measures (insulation thickness, glazing type and infiltrations) have been analyzed.

Keywords: Airtightness, blower door, TRNSYS, infrared thermography, energy demand.

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Authors: Z. Sakka, I. Assakkaf, T. Al-Yaqoub, J. Parol

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reliability-based methodology for the assessment and evaluation of reinforced concrete (R/C) structural elements of concrete structures is presented herein. The results of the reliability analysis and assessment for R/C structural elements were verified by the results obtained through deterministic methods. The outcomes of the reliability-based analysis were compared against currently adopted safety limits that are incorporated in the reliability indices β’s, according to international standards and codes. The methodology is based on probabilistic analysis using reliability concepts and statistics of the main random variables that are relevant to the subject matter, and for which they are to be used in the performance-function equation(s) associated with the structural elements under study. These methodology techniques can result in reliability index β, which is commonly known as the reliability index or reliability measure value that can be utilized to assess and evaluate the safety, human risk, and functionality of the structural component. Also, these methods can result in revised partial safety factor values for certain target reliability indices that can be used for the purpose of redesigning the R/C elements of the building and in which they could assist in considering some other remedial actions to improve the safety and functionality of the member.

Keywords: Concrete Structures, FORM, Monte Carlo Simulation, Structural Reliability.

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Authors: Ovidiu Domşa, Nicolae Bold

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Using Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) notions in education and three basic processes of education (teaching, learning and assessment) can bring benefits to the pupils and the professional development of teachers. In this matter, we refer to these notions as concepts taken from the informatics area and apply them to the domain of education. These notions refer to genetic algorithms and arborescent structures, used in the specific process of assessment or evaluation. This paper uses these kinds of notions to generate subtrees from a main tree of tests related between them by their degree of difficulty. These subtrees must contain the highest number of connections between the nodes and the lowest number of missing edges (which are subtrees of the main tree) and, in the particular case of the non-existence of a subtree with no missing edges, the subtrees which have the lowest (minimal) number of missing edges between the nodes, where a node is a test and an edge is a direct connection between two tests which differs by one degree of difficulty. The subtrees are represented as sequences. The tests are the same (a number coding a test represents that test in every sequence) and they are reused for each sequence of tests.

Keywords: Chromosome, genetic algorithm, subtree, test.

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Authors: Ondřej Bayer

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The paper evaluates the ongoing reform of VAT in the Czech Republic in terms of impacts on individual households. The main objective is to analyse the impact of given changes on individual households. The adopted method is based on the data related to household consumption by individual household quintiles; obtained data are subjected to micro-simulation examining. Results are discussed in terms of vertical tax justice. Results of the analysis reveal that VAT behaves regressively and a sole consolidation of rates at a higher level only increases the regression of this tax in the Czech Republic.

Keywords: Consolidation of rates, household quintiles, tax impact, VAT.

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Authors: Abdurraouf Gaja, Salah Al-Dahash, Guru Solmon Raju, Chikara Kubota

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Corpus luteum cross sectional (by ultrasonography) and plasma progesterone (by DELFIA) were estimated in early pregnant and non pregnant cows on days 14^th and 20^th to 23r^d post insemination. On day 14^th, corpus luteum sectional area was 348.43 mm² in pregnant and 387.84mm² in non pregnant cows. Within days 20^th to 23^rd, corpus luteum sectional area ranged between 342.06 and 367.90 mm² in pregnant and between 193.85 and 270.69 mm² in non pregnant cows. Plasma progesterone level was 2.43 ng/ml in pregnant and 2.46 ng/ml in non pregnant cows on day 14^th, while during days 20^th to 23^rd the level ranged between 2.47 and 2.84 ng/ml in pregnant and between 0.53 and 1.17 ng/ml in non pregnant cows. Results of both luteal tissue areas as well as plasma progesterone levels were highly significantly deferent (P<0.01) between pregnant and non pregnant cows during days 20^th to 23^rd, but there were no significant differences on day 14^th. The correlation between CL cross sectional area and plasma progesterone level was 0.4 in pregnant cows and 0.99 in non pregnant cow. It is clear, from this study, that ultrasonic assessment of corpora lutea is a viable alternative to determine plasma progesterone levels for early pregnancy diagnosis in cows.

Keywords: Progesterone, ultrasonography, corpus luteum, pregnancy diagnosis, cow.

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Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

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This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Samira Chouraqui, Hanifi Missoum, Tourkia Guerzou

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Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. Earthquake prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that, is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 104 J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines have been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN is able to predict earthquake parameters with  high accuracy; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: Earthquake prediction, artificial intelligence, AI, Artificial Neural Network, ANN, seismic bumps.

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Authors: Mui Joo Tang, Eang Teng Chan

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Advertising is commonly used to foster sales and reputation of an institution. It is at first the growth of print advertising that has increased the population and number of periodicals of newspaper and its circulation. The rise of Internet and online media has somehow blurred the role of media and advertising though the intention is still to reach out to audience and to increase sales. The relationship between advertising and audience on a product purchase through persuasion has been developing from print media to online media. From the changing media environment and audience, it is the concern of this research to study the impact of online advertising to such a relationship cycle. The content of online advertisements is much of text, multimedia, photo, audio and video. The messages of such content format may indeed bring impacts to its audience and its credibility. This study is therefore reflecting the effectiveness of online advertisement and its influences on generation Y in their purchasing behavior. This study uses Media Dependency Theory to analyze the relationship between the impact of online advertisement and media usage pattern of generation Y. Hierarchy of Effectiveness Model is used as a marketing communication model to study the effectiveness of advertising and further to determine the impact of online advertisement on generation Y in their purchasing decision making. This research uses online survey to reach out the sample of generation Y. The results have shown that online advertisements do not affect much on purchase decision making even though generation Y relies much on the media content including online advertisement for its information and believing in its credibility. There are few other external factors that may interrupt the effectiveness of online advertising. The very obvious influence of purchasing behavior is actually derived from the peers.

Keywords: Generation Y, online advertising, online media, persuasion, print media, purchase decision.

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Authors: Insiya Kapasi, Roshni Udyavar Yehuda

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Cluster Redevelopment is a new concept in the city of Mumbai. Its regulations were laid down by the government in 2009. The concept of cluster redevelopment encompasses a group of buildings defined by a boundary as specified by the municipal authority (in this case, Mumbai), which may be dilapidated or approved for redevelopment. The study analyses the effect of cluster redevelopment in the form of renewal of old group of buildings as compared to refurbishment or restoration - on energy consumption. The methodology includes methods of assessment to determine increase or decrease in energy consumption in cluster redevelopment based on different criteria such as carpet area of the units, building envelope and its architectural elements. Results show that as the area and number of units increase the Energy consumption increases and the EPI (energy performance index) decreases as compared to the base case. The energy consumption per unit area declines by 29% in the proposed cluster redevelopment as compared to the original settlement. It is recommended that although the development is spacious and provides more light and ventilation, aspects such as glass type, traditional architectural features and consumer behavior are critical in the reduction of energy consumption.

Keywords: Cluster redevelopment, energy consumption, energy efficiency, typologies.

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Authors: Zain M. Al-Houri, Abbas S. Al-Omari

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Roadways in Amman city face many problems consequent upon poor drainage systems. Evaluation tools are necessary to identify those roads needing improvement in their drainage system, and those needing regular maintenance. This work aims at evaluating drainage conditions in selected roadways in Amman city with the intent of identifying the problems encountered in their drainage systems. Three sites in the vicinity of Amman city have been selected and then inspected via several field visits to determine the state of their existing drainage systems and define the major problems encountered in these systems. The evaluation tool used in this study is based on visual inspection supported by photographs that depicted the defined problems. Following the field assessment, the drainage system in each road was rated as excellent, fair, good, or poor. The study reveals that more than 60% of the roadways in the selected sites were in poor drainage conditions, which lead to tremendous environmental problems. This assessment serves as a guide for local decision makers to help plan for the maintenance of Amman city roadways drainage systems, and propose ways of managing the associated problems.

Keywords: Amman Stormwater, Drainage systems, Environmental problems, Roadways drainage.

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Authors: Hugo Sampaio Libero, Max de Castro Magalhaes

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The perception of sound radiated from a building floor is greatly influenced by the rooms in which it is immersed and by the position of both listener and source. The main question that remains unanswered is related to the influence of the source position on the sound power radiated by a complex wall-floor system in buildings. This research is concerned with the investigation of vibration transmission across walls and floors in buildings. It is primarily based on the determination of vibration reduction index via experimental tests. Knowledge of this parameter may help in predicting noise and vibration propagation in building components. First, the physical mechanisms involving vibration transmission across structural junctions is described. An experimental set-up is performed to aid this investigation. The experimental tests have showed that the vibration generation in the walls and floors are directed related to their size and boundary conditions. It is also shown that the vibration source position can affect the overall vibration spectrum significantly. Second, the characteristics of the noise spectra inside the rooms due to an impact source (tapping machine) are also presented. Conclusions are drawn for the general trend of vibration and noise spectrum of the structural components and rooms respectively. In summary, the aim of this paper is to investigate the vibro-acoustical behavior of building floors and walls under floor impact excitation. The impact excitation was at distinct positions on the slab. The analysis has highlighted the main physical characteristics of the vibration transmission mechanism.

Keywords: Vibration transmission, Vibration Reduction Index, Impact excitation, building acoustics.

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Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Touhari Fadhila, Meddi Mohamed

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The Cheliff basin offers a good hydrological example for the possibility of studying the problem which elucidated in the future, because of the unclearity in several aspects and hydraulic installation. Thus, our study of the Cheliff basin is divided into two principal parts: The spatial evaluation of the precipitation: also, the understanding of the modes of the reconstitution of the resource in water supposes a good knowledge of the structuring of the precipitation fields in the studied space. In the goal of a good knowledge of revitalizes them in water and their management integrated one judged necessary to establish a precipitation card of the Cheliff basin for a good understanding of the evolution of the resource in water in the basin and that goes will serve as basis for all study of hydraulic planning in the Cheliff basin. Then, the establishment of the precipitation card of the Cheliff basin answered a direct need of setting to the disposition of the researchers for the region and a document of reference that will be completed therefore and actualized. The hydrological study, based on the statistical hydrometric data processing will lead us to specify the hydrological terms of the assessment hydrological and to clarify the fundamental aspects of the annual flow, seasonal, extreme and thus of their variability and resources surface water.

Keywords: Hydrological assessment, surface water resources, Cheliff, Algeria.

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

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Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: Expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis.

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Authors: F. Havas Beigi, E. Mohammadi, M.Vafaee Yeganeh

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Curriculum is one of the most important inputs in higher education system and for knowing the strong and weak spots of it we need evaluation. The main purpose of this study was to survey of the curriculum quality of Insurance Management field. Case: University of Allameh Taba Tabaee(according to view point of students,alumni,employer and faculty members).Descriptive statistics (mean, tables, percentages, frequency distribution) and inferential statistics (CHI SQUARE) were used to analyze the data. Six criterions considered for the Quality of curriculum: objectives, content, teaching and learning methods, space and facilities, Time, assessment of learning. objectives, teaching and learning methods criterions was desirable level, content criteria was undesirable level, space and facilities, time and assessment of learning were rather desirable level. The quality of curriculum of insurance management field was relatively desirable level.

Keywords: Quality, curriculum, insurance management, higher education.

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Authors: Manjie Li, Xiangju Cheng, Yongcan Chen

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With rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, water environmental deterioration is widespread in majority of urban rivers, which seriously affects city image and life satisfaction of residents. As an emergency measure to improve water quality, clean water diversion is introduced for water environmental management. Lubao River and Southwest River, two urban rivers in typical plain tidal river network, are identified as technically and economically feasible for the application of clean water diversion. One-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model is developed to simulate temporal and spatial variations of water level and water quality, with satisfactory accuracy. The mathematical model after calibration is applied to investigate hydrodynamic and water quality variations in rivers as well as determine the optimum operation scheme of water diversion. Assessment system is developed for evaluation of positive and negative effects of water diversion, demonstrating the effectiveness of clean water diversion and the necessity of pollution reduction.

Keywords: Assessment system, clean water diversion, hydrodynamic-water quality model, tidal river network, urban rivers, water environment improvement.

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Authors: Abbas Keramati, Abtin Boostani, Mohammad Jamal Sadeghi

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This paper examines the influence of knowledge management factors on organizational commitment for employees in the oil and gas drilling industry of Iran. We determine what knowledge factors have the greatest impact on the personnel loyalty and commitment to the organization using collected data from a survey of over 300 full-time personnel working in three large companies active in oil and gas drilling industry of Iran. To specify the effect of knowledge factors in the organizational commitment of the personnel in the studied organizations, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used. Findings of our study show that the factors such as knowledge and expertise, in-service training, the knowledge value and the application of individuals’ knowledge in the organization as the factor “learning and perception of personnel from the value of knowledge within the organization” has the greatest impact on the organizational commitment. After this factor, “existence of knowledge and knowledge sharing environment in the organization”; “existence of potential knowledge exchanging in the organization”; and “organizational knowledge level” factors have the most impact on the organizational commitment of personnel, respectively.

Keywords: Knowledge management, organizational commitment, loyalty, drilling industry, principle component analysis.

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Authors: A. G. Margaryan

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Aims and Objectives: Assessment of health status and detection disorders of external respiration functions (ERF) during preventative medical examination among physicians of Armenia. Subjects and Methods: Overall, fifty-nine physicians (17 men and 42 women) were examined and spirometry was carried out. The average age of the physicians was 50 years old. The studies were conducted on the Micromedical MicroLab 3500 Spirometer. Results: 25.4% among 59 examined physicians are overweight; 22.0% of them suffer from obesity. Two physicians are currently smokers. About half of the examined physicians (50.8%) at the time of examination were diagnosed with some diseases and had different health-related problems (excluding the problems related to vision and hearing). FVC was 2.94±0.1, FEV1 – 2.64±0.1, PEF – 329.7±19.9, and FEV₁%/FVC – 89.7±1.3. Pathological changes of ERF are identified in 23 (39.0%) cases. 28.8% of physicians had first degree of restrictive disorders, 3.4% – first degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders, 6.8% – second degree of combined obstructive/ restrictive disorders. Only three physicians with disorders of the ERF were diagnosed with chronic bronchitis and bronchial asthma. There were no statistically significant changes in ERF depending on the severity of obesity (P> 0.05). Conclusion: The study showed the prevalence of ERF among physicians, observing mainly mild and moderate changes in ERF parameters.

Keywords: Armenia, external respiration function, health status, physicians.

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Authors: C. Ardil

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This paper aims to present an objective quantitative methodology on how to evaluate individual’s scholarly research output using multiple criteria decision analysis. A multiple criteria decision making analysis (MCDMA) methodological process is adopted to build a multiple criteria evaluation model. With the introduction of the scholar index, which gives significant information about a researcher's productivity and the scholarly impact of his or her publications in a single number (s is the number of publications with at least s citations); cumulative research citation index; the scholar index is included in the citation databases to cover the multidimensional complexity of scholarly research performance and to undertake objective evaluations with scholar index. The scholar index, one of publication activity indexes, is analyzed by considering it to be the most appropriate sciencemetric indicator which allows to smooth over many drawbacks of scholarly output assessment by mere calculation of the number of publications (quantity) and citations (quality). Hence, this study includes a set of indicators-based scholar index to be used for evaluating scholarly researchers. Google Scholar open science database was used to assess and discuss scholarly productivity and impact of researchers. Based on the experiment of computing the scholar index, and its derivative indexes for a set of researchers on open research database platform, quantitative methods of assessing scholarly research output were successfully considered to rank researchers. The proposed methodology considers the ranking, and the selection of data on which a scholarly research performance evaluation was based, the analysis of the data, and the presentation of the multiple criteria analysis results.

Keywords: Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Research Performance Evaluation, Scholar Index, h index, Science Citation Index, Science Efficiency, Cumulative Citation Index, Sciencemetrics

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Authors: Ramakrishnan Ramanathan, Yanqing Duan, Guangming Cao, Elaine Philpott

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We discuss a theoretical conceptual framework to help understand how the new business analytics technologies have diffused in firms. We draw on three theoretical perspectives for this purpose. They are innovation diffusion theory, IT Business Value and the technology-organization-environment theory. We develop a conceptual framework that helps understand the interlinkages among factors affecting diffusion of business analytics and its impact on performance.

Keywords: Innovation diffusion, IT-Business Value, Technology-Organization-Environment, Business Analytics, Business performance

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Authors: Abolfazl Moeini, Elahe Alizadeh Paeenafrakaty

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The protection of groundwater resources is the great important many semiarid and arid environments. Baghan watershed is located in the north of Kangan in the Boshehr province in Iran. The groundwater resources have a vital role in supplying agricultural, drinking, domestic and industrial water demand in Baghan watershed. For our investigation into the water quality we collected 30 samples to chemical and physical analysis. The result showed the marl and evaporation deposits that contain anhydrite and gypsum is the main source of groundwater pollution, and one part of the groundwater was polluted by oil and gas industrial. Another part of the groundwater was contaminated by urban waste water. The electrical conductivity and captions and anions increased around of towns and gas refinery. Although the negative impact of untreated domestic wastewater is relatively low but the results showed strongly the negative impact of wastewater refinery is very considerable. This negative impact increased in downstream due to shallow aquifer. Additionally, the agents that adversely affect the quality of groundwater come from a variety of sources, including geology, domestic wastewater and the Jam refinery in Baghan watershed.

Keywords: Baghan watershed, Chemical quality, Groundwater, Pollution sources.

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Authors: R. Hashemi, M.H.Kargarnovin

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This paper presents the identification of the impact force acting on a simply supported beam. The force identification is an inverse problem in which the measured response of the structure is used to determine the applied force. The identification problem is formulated as an optimization problem and the genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the optimization problem. The objective function is calculated on the difference between analytical and measured responses and the decision variables are the location and magnitude of the applied force. The results from simulation show the effectiveness of the approach and its robustness vs. the measurement noise and sensor location.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Inverse problem, Optimization, Vibration.

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall.

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Authors: M.O. Makhmalbaf, F. Mohajeri Nav, M. Zabihi Samani

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The recent drive for use of performance-based methodologies in design and assessment of structures in seismic areas has significantly increased the demand for the development of reliable nonlinear inelastic static pushover analysis tools. As a result, the adaptive pushover methods have been developed during the last decade, which unlike their conventional pushover counterparts, feature the ability to account for the effect that higher modes of vibration and progressive stiffness degradation might have on the distribution of seismic storey forces. Even in advanced pushover methods, little attention has been paid to the Unsymmetric structures. This study evaluates the seismic demands for three dimensional Unsymmetric-Plan buildings determined by the Displacement-based Adaptive Pushover (DAP) analysis, which has been introduced by Antoniou and Pinho [2004]. The capability of DAP procedure in capturing the torsional effects due to the irregularities of the structures, is investigated by comparing its estimates to the exact results, obtained from Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA). Also the capability of the procedure in prediction the seismic behaviour of the structure is discussed.

Keywords: Nonlinear static procedures, Unsymmetric-PlanBuildings, Torsional effects, IDA.

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Authors: Rakesh Kumar, Fatima Electricwala

Abstract:

One of the major thrusts of the Bus Rapid Transit System is to reduce the commuter’s dependency on private vehicles and increase the shares of public transport to make urban transportation system environmentally sustainable. In this study, commuter mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to the proposed Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) in Surat, with estimation of the probable shift from private mode to public mode. Further, evaluation of the BRTS scenarios, using Surat’s transportation ecological footprint was done. A multi-modal simulation model was developed in Biogeme environment to explicitly consider private users behaviors and non-linear environmental impact. The data of the different factors (variables) and its impact that might cause modal shift of private mode users to proposed BRTS were collected through home-interview survey using revealed and stated preference approach. A multi modal logit model of mode-choice was then calibrated using the collected data and validated using proposed sample. From this study, a set of perception factors, with reliable and predictable data base, to explain the variation in modal shift behaviour and their impact on Surat’s ecological environment has been identified. A case study of the proposed BRTS connecting the Surat Industrial Hub to the coastal area is provided to illustrate the approach.

Keywords: BRTS, Private Modes, Mode choice models, Ecological footprint.

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Authors: Zohreh Bang Tavakoli, Shuktika Chatterjee

Abstract:

This study investigates the fiscal policy impact on countries’ economic growth in developing countries with a different external debt level. The fiscal policy effectiveness has been re-emphasized in the global financial crisis of 2008 with the external debt as its new contemporary driver. Different theories have proposed the economic consequence of fiscal policy, specifically for developing countries. However, fiscal policy literature is lacking research regarding the fiscal policy’s effectiveness with the external debt’s contributions through comprehensive study. Also, high levels of external debt will influence economic growth. Through foreign resources and channel of investment in which high level of debt decreases the amount of foreign investment in the developing countries. The finding of this study suggests that only countries with a low external debt level and appropriate fiscal policies and good quality institutions can gain the proper quantity and quality of foreign investors in which will help the economic growth. For this, this research is examining the impact of fiscal policy on developing countries' economic growth in the situation of different external debt levels.

Keywords: fiscal policy, external debt, gross domestic product, developing countries

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Authors: Chang, Chun-Lang, Liu, Chun-Kai

Abstract:

This study, for its research subjects, uses patients who had undergone total knee replacement surgery from the database of the National Health Insurance Administration. Through the review of literatures and the interviews with physicians, important factors are selected after careful screening. Then using Cross Entropy Method, Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression, and Particle Swarm Optimization, the weight of each factor is calculated and obtained. In the meantime, Excel VBA and Case Based Reasoning are combined and adopted to evaluate the system. Results show no significant difference found through Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization with over 97% accuracy in both methods. Both ROC areas are above 0.87. This study can provide critical reference to medical personnel as clinical assessment to effectively enhance medical care quality and efficiency, prevent unnecessary waste, and provide practical advantages to resource allocation to medical institutes.

Keywords: Total knee replacement, Case Based Reasoning, Cross Entropy Method, Genetic Algorithm Logistic Regression, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: C. Li, G. Coates, N. Johnson, M. McGuinness

Abstract:

In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding. This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.

Keywords: ABM, Flood response, SMEs, Business continuity.

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