Search results for: Model of community management
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9926

Search results for: Model of community management

3686 How Stock Market Reacts to Guidance Revisions and Actual Earnings Surprises

Authors: Tero Halme, Juho Kanniainen, Markus Nordberg

Abstract:

According to the existing literature, companies manage analysts’ expectations of their future earnings by issuing pessimistic earnings guidance to meet the expectations. Consequently, one could expect that markets price this pessimistic bias in advance and penalize companies more for lowering the guidance than reward for beating the guidance. In this paper we confirm this empirically. In addition we show that although guidance revisions have a statistically significant relation to stock returns, that is not the case with the actual earnings surprise. Reason for this could be that, after the annual earnings report also information on future earnings power is given at the same time.

Keywords: Management guidance, earnings guidance, pessimistic bias

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3685 CASTE: a Cloud-Based Automatic Software Test Environment

Authors: Fuyang Peng, Bo Deng, Chao Qi

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and implementation of CASTE, a Cloud-based automatic software test environment. We first present the architecture of CASTE, then the main packages and classes of it are described in detail. CASTE is built upon a private Infrastructure as a Service platform. Through concentrated resource management of virtualized testing environment and automatic execution control of test scripts, we get a better solution to the testing resource utilization and test automation problem. Experiments on CASTE give very appealing results.

Keywords: Software testing, test environment, test script, cloud computing, IaaS, test automation.

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3684 Fast and Accurate Reservoir Modeling: Genetic Algorithm versus DIRECT Method

Authors: Mohsen Ebrahimi, Milad M. Rabieh

Abstract:

In this paper, two very different optimization algorithms, Genetic and DIRECT algorithms, are used to history match a bottomhole pressure response for a reservoir with wellbore storage and skin with the best possible analytical model. No initial guesses are available for reservoir parameters. The results show that the matching process is much faster and more accurate for DIRECT method in comparison with Genetic algorithm. It is furthermore concluded that the DIRECT algorithm does not need any initial guesses, whereas Genetic algorithm needs to be tuned according to initial guesses.

Keywords: DIRECT algorithm, Genetic algorithm, Analytical modeling, History match

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3683 Sensitivity Analysis during the Optimization Process Using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: M. A. Rubio, A. Urquia

Abstract:

Genetic algorithms (GA) are applied to the solution of high-dimensional optimization problems. Additionally, sensitivity analysis (SA) is usually carried out to determine the effect on optimal solutions of changes in parameter values of the objective function. These two analyses (i.e., optimization and sensitivity analysis) are computationally intensive when applied to high-dimensional functions. The approach presented in this paper consists in performing the SA during the GA execution, by statistically analyzing the data obtained of running the GA. The advantage is that in this case SA does not involve making additional evaluations of the objective function and, consequently, this proposed approach requires less computational effort than conducting optimization and SA in two consecutive steps.

Keywords: Optimization, sensitivity, genetic algorithms, model calibration.

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3682 Finite Element Prediction of Hip Fracture during a Sideways Fall

Authors: M. Ikhwan Z. Ridzwan, Bidyut Pal, Ulrich N. Hansen

Abstract:

Finite element method was applied to model damage development in the femoral neck during a sideways fall. The femoral failure was simulated using the maximum principal strain criterion. The evolution of damage was consistent with previous studies. It was initiated by compressive failure at the junction of the superior aspect of the femoral neck and the greater trochanter. It was followed by tensile failure that occurred at the inferior aspect of the femoral neck before a complete transcervical fracture was observed. The estimated failure line was less than 50° from the horizontal plane (Pauwels type II).

Keywords: Femoral Strength, Finite Element Models, Hip Fracture, Progressive Failure, Sideways Fall.

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3681 A Fast and Robust Protocol for Reconstruction and Re-Enactment of Historical Sites

Authors: S. I. Abu Alasal, M. M. Esbeih, E. R. Fayyad, R. S. Gharaibeh, M. Z. Ali, A. A. Freewan, M. M. Jamhawi

Abstract:

This research proposes a novel reconstruction protocol for restoring missing surfaces and low-quality edges and shapes in photos of artifacts at historical sites. The protocol starts with the extraction of a cloud of points. This extraction process is based on four subordinate algorithms, which differ in the robustness and amount of resultant. Moreover, they use different -but complementary- accuracy to some related features and to the way they build a quality mesh. The performance of our proposed protocol is compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms and toolkits. The statistical analysis shows that our algorithm significantly outperforms its rivals in the resultant quality of its object files used to reconstruct the desired model.

Keywords: Meshes, Point Clouds, Surface Reconstruction Protocols, 3D Reconstruction.

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3680 A Study on the Heading of Spur Gears: Numerical Analysis and Experiments

Authors: M.Zadshakouyan, E.Abdi Sobbouhi, H.Jafarzadeh

Abstract:

In this study, the precision heading process of spur gears has been investigated by means of numerical analysis. The effect of some parameters such as teeth number and module on the forming force and material flow were presented. The simulation works were performed rigid-plastic finite element method using DEFORM 3D software. In order to validate the estimated numerical results, they were compared with those obtained experimentally during heading of spur gear using lead as a model material. Results showed that the optimum number of gear teeth is between 10 to 20, that is because of being the specific pressure in its minimum value.

Keywords: Heading, spur gear, numerical analysis, experiments.

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3679 A Generic, Functionally Comprehensive Approach to Maintaining an Ontology as a Relational Database

Authors: Jennifer Leopold, Alton Coalter, Leong Lee

Abstract:

An ontology is a data model that represents a set of concepts in a given field and the relationships among those concepts. As the emphasis on achieving a semantic web continues to escalate, ontologies for all types of domains increasingly will be developed. These ontologies may become large and complex, and as their size and complexity grows, so will the need for multi-user interfaces for ontology curation. Herein a functionally comprehensive, generic approach to maintaining an ontology as a relational database is presented. Unlike many other ontology editors that utilize a database, this approach is entirely domain-generic and fully supports Webbased, collaborative editing including the designation of different levels of authorization for users.

Keywords: Ontology Editor, Relational Database, CollaborativeCuration.

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3678 Nonlinear Simulation of Harmonically Coupled Two-Beam Free-Electron Laser

Authors: M. Zahedian, B. Maraghechi, M. H. Rouhani

Abstract:

A nonlinear model of two-beam free-electron laser (FEL) in the absence of slippage is presented. The two beams are assumed to be cold with different energies and the fundamental resonance of the higher energy beam is at the third harmonic of lower energy beam. By using Maxwell-s equations and full Lorentz force equations of motion for the electron beams, coupled differential equations are derived and solved numerically by the fourth order Runge–Kutta method. In this method a considerable growth of third harmonic electromagnetic field in the XUV and X-ray regions is predicted.

Keywords: Free-electron laser, Higher energy beam, Lowerenergy beam, Two-beam

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3677 Turing Pattern in the Oregonator Revisited

Authors: Elragig Aiman, Dreiwi Hanan, Townley Stuart, Elmabrook Idriss

Abstract:

In this paper, we reconsider the analysis of the Oregonator model. We highlight an error in this analysis which leads to an incorrect depiction of the parameter region in which diffusion driven instability is possible. We believe that the cause of the oversight is the complexity of stability analyses based on eigenvalues and the dependence on parameters of matrix minors appearing in stability calculations. We regenerate the parameter space where Turing patterns can be seen, and we use the common Lyapunov function (CLF) approach, which is numerically reliable, to further confirm the dependence of the results on diffusion coefficients intensities.

Keywords: Diffusion driven instability, common Lyapunov function (CLF), turing pattern, positive-definite matrix.

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3676 Nonlinear Stability of Convection in a Thermally Modulated Anisotropic Porous Medium

Authors: M. Meenasaranya, S. Saravanan

Abstract:

Conditions corresponding to the unconditional stability of convection in a mechanically anisotropic fluid saturated porous medium of infinite horizontal extent are determined. The medium is heated from below and its bounding surfaces are subjected to temperature modulation which consists of a steady part and a time periodic oscillating part. The Brinkman model is employed in the momentum equation with the Bousinessq approximation. The stability region is found for arbitrary values of modulational frequency and amplitude using the energy method. Higher order numerical computations are carried out to find critical boundaries and subcritical instability regions more accurately.

Keywords: Convection, porous medium, anisotropy, temperature modulation, nonlinear stability.

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3675 The Effect of Slow Variation of Base Flow Profile on the Stability of Slightly Curved Mixing Layers

Authors: Irina Eglite, Andrei A. Kolyshkin

Abstract:

The effect of small non-parallelism of the base flow on the stability of slightly curved mixing layers is analyzed in the present paper. Assuming that the instability wavelength is much smaller than the length scale of the variation of the base flow we derive an amplitude evolution equation using the method of multiple scales. The proposed asymptotic model provides connection between parallel flow approximations and takes into account slow longitudinal variation of the base flow.

Keywords: shallow water, parallel flow assumption, weaklynonlinear analysis, method of multiple scales

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3674 Production Structure Monitoring - A Neurologic Based Approach

Authors: G. Reinhart, J. Pohl

Abstract:

Manufacturing companies are facing a broad variety of challenges caused by a dynamic production environment. To succeed in such an environment, it is crucial to minimize the loss of time required to trigger the adaptation process of a company-s production structures. This paper presents an approach for the continuous monitoring of production structures by neurologic principles. It enhances classical monitoring concepts, which are principally focused on reactive strategies, and enables companies to act proactively. Thereby, strategic aspects regarding the harmonization of certain life cycles are integrated into the decision making process for triggering the reconfiguration process of the production structure.

Keywords: Continuous Factory Planning, Production Structure, Production Management.

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3673 Management of Multimedia Contents for Distributed e-Learning System

Authors: Kazunari Meguro, Daisuke Yamamoto, Shinichi Motomura, Toshihiko Sasama, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

We have developed a distributed asynchronous Web based training system. In order to improve the scalability and robustness of this system, all contents and functions are realized on mobile agents. These agents are distributed to computers, and they can use a Peer to Peer network that modified Content-Addressable Network. In the proposed system, only text data can be included in a exercise. To make our proposed system more useful, the mechanism that it not only adapts to multimedia data but also it doesn-t influence the user-s learning even if the size of exercise becomes large is necessary.

Keywords: e-Learning, multimedia, Mobile Agent.

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3672 Additive Friction Stir Manufacturing Process: Interest in Understanding Thermal Phenomena and Numerical Modeling of the Temperature Rise Phase

Authors: A. Lauvray, F. Poulhaon, P. Michaud, P. Joyot, E. Duc

Abstract:

Additive Friction Stir Manufacturing, or AFSM, is a new industrial process that follows the emergence of friction-based processes. The AFSM process is a solid-state additive process using the energy produced by the friction at the interface between a rotating non-consumable tool and a substrate. Friction depends on various parameters like axial force, rotation speed or friction coefficient. The feeder material is a metallic rod that flows through a hole in the tool. There is still a lack in understanding of the physical phenomena taking place during the process. This research aims at a better AFSM process understanding and implementation, thanks to numerical simulation and experimental validation performed on a prototype effector. Such an approach is considered a promising way for studying the influence of the process parameters and to finally identify a process window that seems relevant. The deposition of material through the AFSM process takes place in several phases. In chronological order these phases are the docking phase, the dwell time phase, the deposition phase, and the removal phase. The present work focuses on the dwell time phase that enables the temperature rise of the system due to pure friction. An analytic modeling of heat generation based on friction considers as main parameters the rotational speed and the contact pressure. Another parameter considered influential is the friction coefficient assumed to be variable, due to the self-lubrication of the system with the rise in temperature or the materials in contact roughness smoothing over time. This study proposes through a numerical modeling followed by an experimental validation to question the influence of the various input parameters on the dwell time phase. Rotation speed, temperature, spindle torque and axial force are the main monitored parameters during experimentations and serve as reference data for the calibration of the numerical model. This research shows that the geometry of the tool as well as fluctuations of the input parameters like axial force and rotational speed are very influential on the temperature reached and/or the time required to reach the targeted temperature. The main outcome is the prediction of a process window which is a key result for a more efficient process implementation.

Keywords: numerical model, additive manufacturing, frictional heat generation, process

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3671 Complexity of Operation and Maintenance in Irrigation Network Management-A Case of the Dez Scheme in the Greater Dezful, Iran

Authors: Najaf Hedayat

Abstract:

Food and fibre production in arid and semi-arid regions has emerged as one of the major challenges for various socio-economic and political reasons such as the food security and self-sufficiency. Productive use of the renewable water resources has risen on top ofthe decision-making agenda. For this reason, efficient operation and maintenance of modern irrigation and drainage schemes become part and parcel and indispensible reality in agricultural policy making arena. The aim of this paper is to investigate the complexity of operating and maintaining such schemes, mainly focussing on challenges which enhance and opportunities that impedsustainable food and fibre production. The methodology involved using secondary data complemented byroutine observations and stakeholders views on issues that influence the O&M in the Dez command area. The SPSS program was used as an analytical framework for data analysis and interpretation.Results indicate poor application efficiency in most croplands, much of which is attributed to deficient operation of conveyance and distribution canals. These in turn, are reportedly linked to inadequate maintenance of the pumping stations and hydraulic structures like turnouts,flumes and other control systems particularly in the secondary and tertiary canals. Results show that the aforementioned deficiencies have been the major impediment to establishing regular flow toward the farm gates which subsequently undermine application efficiency and tillage operationsat farm level. Results further show that accumulative impact of such deficiencies has been the major causes of poorcrop yield and quality that deem production system in these croplands uneconomic. Results further show that the present state might undermine the sustainability of agricultural system in the command area. The overall conclusion being that present water management is unlikely to be responsive to challenges that the sector faces. And in the absence of coherent measures to shift the status quo situation in favour of more productive resource use, it would be hard to fulfil the objectives of the National Economic and Socio-cultural Development Plans.

Keywords: renewable water resources, Dez scheme, irrigationand drainage, sustainable crop production, O&M

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3670 Optical Fiber Sensor for Detection of Carbon Nanotubes

Authors: C. I. L. Justino, A. C. Freitas, T. A. P. Rocha-Santos, A. C. Duarte

Abstract:

This work relates the development of an optical fiber (OF) sensor for the detection and quantification of single walled carbon nanotubes in aqueous solutions. The developed OF displays a compact design, it requires less expensive materials and equipment as well as low volume of sample (0.2 mL). This methodology was also validated by the comparison of its analytical performance with that of a standard methodology based on ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy. The developed OF sensor follows the general SDS calibration proposed for OF sensors as a more suitable calibration fitting compared with classical calibrations.

Keywords: Optical fiber sensor, single-walled carbon nanotubes, SDS calibration model, UV-Vis spectroscopy

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3669 The Effect of Insurance on Foreign Direct Investments Inflow to Nigeria

Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Afamefuna J. Ani, Ebere U. Okolo

Abstract:

This paper seeks to assess the implications of insurance to foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. Multiple linear regression technique and correlation matrix test were employed to measure the extent to which foreign direct investment was influenced. The result showed that insurance premium (IP), asset size of insurance industry (AS), and total investment of the industry (TI) impacted significantly and positively on foreign direct investment inflow in Nigeria. There should be effective risk transfer mechanism and financial intermediation, which gives the investor confidence in the risk management strength of the host country.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, insurance.

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3668 Evaluation of Indoor-Outdoor Particle Size Distribution in Tehran's Elementary Schools

Authors: F. Halek, A. Kavousi, F. Hassani

Abstract:

A simultaneous study on indoor and outdoor particulate matter concentrations was done in five elementary schools in central parts of Tehran, Iran. Three sizes of particles including PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 were measured in 13 classrooms within this schools during winter (January, February and March) 2009. A laserbased portable aerosol spectrometer Model Grimm-1.108, was used for the continuous measurement of particles. The average indoor concentration of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 in studied schools were 274 μg/m3, 42 μg/m3 and 19 μg/m3 respectively; and average outdoor concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 were evaluated to be 22 μg/m3, 38 μg/m3 and 140 μg/m3 respectively.

Keywords: Elementary school, Indoor pollution, particulate matter, PM10, PM2.5, PM1.0, outdoor pollution, Tehran air pollution.

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3667 Block Activity in Metric Neural Networks

Authors: Mario Gonzalez, David Dominguez, Francisco B. Rodriguez

Abstract:

The model of neural networks on the small-world topology, with metric (local and random connectivity) is investigated. The synaptic weights are random, driving the network towards a chaotic state for the neural activity. An ordered macroscopic neuron state is induced by a bias in the network connections. When the connections are mainly local, the network emulates a block-like structure. It is found that the topology and the bias compete to influence the network to evolve into a global or a block activity ordering, according to the initial conditions.

Keywords: Block attractor, random interaction, small world, spin glass.

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3666 Fetal and Infant Mortality in Botucatu City, São Paulo State, Brazil: Evaluation of Maternal - Infant Health Care

Authors: Noda L. M., Salvador I. C, C. M. L. G. Parada, Fonseca C. R. B.

Abstract:

In Brazil, neonatal mortality rate is considered incompatible with the country development conditions, and has been a Public Health concern. Reduction in infant mortality rates has also been part of the Millennium Development Goals, a commitment made by countries, members of the Organization of United Nations (OUN), including Brazil. Fetal mortality rate is considered a highly sensitive indicator of health care quality. Suitable actions, such as good quality and access to health services may contribute positively towards reduction in these fetal and neonatal rates. With appropriate antenatal follow-up and health care during gestation and delivery, some death causes could be reduced or even prevented by means of early diagnosis and intervention, as well as changes in risk factors and interventions. Objectives: To study the quality of maternal and infant health care based on fetal and neonatal mortality, as well as the possible actions to prevent those deaths in Botucatu (Brazil). Methods: Classification of prevention according to the International Classification of Diseases and the modified Wigglesworth´s classification. In order to evaluate adequacy, indicators of quality of antenatal and delivery care were established by the authors. Results: Considering fetal deaths, 56.7% of them occurred before delivery, which reveals possible shortcomings in antenatal care, and 38.2% of them were a result of intra- labor changes, which could be prevented or reduced by adequate obstetric management. These findings were different from those in the group of early neonatal deaths which were also studied. Adequacy of health services showed that antenatal and childbirth care was appropriate for 24% and 33.3% of pregnant women, respectively, which corroborates the results of prevention. These results revealed that shortcomings in obstetric and antenatal care could be the causes of deaths in the study. Early and late neonatal deaths have similar characteristics: 76% could be prevented or reduced mainly by adequate newborn care (52.9%) and adequate health care for gestational women (11.7%). When adequacy of care was evaluated, childbirth and newborn care was adequate in 25.8% and antenatal care was adequate in 16.1%. In conclusion, direct relationship was found between adequacy and quality of care rendered to pregnant women and newborns, and fetal and infant mortality. Moreover, our findings highlight that deaths could be prevented by an adequate obstetric and neonatal management.

Keywords: Fetal Mortality, Infant Mortality, Maternal-Child Health Services, Program Evaluation.

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3665 A Quadcopter Stability Analysis: A Case Study Using Simulation

Authors: C. S. Bianca Sabrina, N. Egidio Raimundo, L. Alexandre Baratella, C. H. João Paulo

Abstract:

This paper aims to present a study, with the theoretical concepts and applications of the Quadcopter, using the MATLAB simulator. In order to use this tool, the study of the stability of the drone through a Proportional - Integral - Derivative (PID) controller will be presented. After the stability study, some tests are done on the simulator and its results will be presented. From the mathematical model, it is possible to find the Newton-Euler angles, so that it is possible to stabilize the quadcopter in a certain position in the air, starting from the ground. In order to understand the impact of the controllers gain values on the stabilization of the Euler-Newton angles, three conditions will be tested with different controller gain values.

Keywords: Controllers, drones, quadcopter, stability.

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3664 Automating Test Activities: Test Cases Creation, Test Execution, and Test Reporting with Multiple Test Automation Tools

Authors: Loke Mun Sei

Abstract:

Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: Test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting.

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3663 Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around a 30° Inclined Flat Plate

Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, P. Cioppa, E. Benini

Abstract:

This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow around a 30° inclined flat plate of infinite span. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a flat plate invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested and flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been numerically investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional inclined plate.

Keywords: CFD, lift, drag, flat plate

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3662 Modelling Peer Group Dieting Behaviour

Authors: M. J. Cunha

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to understand how peers can influence adolescent girls- dieting behaviour and their body image. Departing from imitation and social learning theories, we study whether adolescent girls tend to model their peer group dieting behaviours, thus influencing their body image construction. Our study was conducted through an enquiry applied to a cluster sample of 466 adolescent high school girls in Lisbon city public schools. Our main findings point to an association between girls- and peers- dieting behaviours, thus reinforcing the modelling hypothesis.

Keywords: Modelling, Diet, Body image, Adolescent girls, Peer group.

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3661 Study on Energy Absorption Characteristic of Cab Frame with FEM

Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama, Oke Oktavianty, Zefry Darmawan, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Ken Kaminishi

Abstract:

Cab’s frame strength is considered as an important factor in excavator’s operator safety, especially during roll-over. In this study, we use a model of cab frame with different thicknesses and perform elastoplastic numerical analysis by using Finite Element Method (FEM). Deformation mode and energy absorption's of cab’s frame part are investigated on two conditions, with wrinkle and without wrinkle. The occurrence of wrinkle when deforming cab frame can reduce energy absorption, and among 4 parts with wrinkle, the energy absorption significantly decreases in part C. Residual stress that generated upon the bending process of part C is analyzed to confirm it possibility in increasing the energy absorption.

Keywords: ROPS, FEM, hydraulic excavator, cab frame, energy absorption.

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3660 Auction Theory: Bidder's Perspective in an English Auction Environment

Authors: J. Aryal, D. Kulasiri, G. A. Carnaby

Abstract:

This paper provides an overview of auction theory literature. We present a general review on literature of various auctions and focus ourselves specifically on an English auction. We are interested in modelling bidder's behavior in an English auction environment. And hence, we present an overview of the New Zealand wool auction followed by a model that would describe a bidder's decision making behavior from the New Zealand wool auction. The mathematical assumptions in an English auction environment are demonstrated from the perspective of the New Zealand wool auction.

Keywords: Bidder, English auction, New Zealand, wool.

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3659 A Review on Important Aspects of Information Retrieval

Authors: Yogesh Gupta, Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

Abstract:

Information retrieval has become an important field of study and research under computer science due to explosive growth of information available in the form of full text, hypertext, administrative text, directory, numeric or bibliographic text. The research work is going on various aspects of information retrieval systems so as to improve its efficiency and reliability. This paper presents a comprehensive study, which discusses not only emergence and evolution of information retrieval but also includes different information retrieval models and some important aspects such as document representation, similarity measure and query expansion.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, query expansion, similarity measure, query expansion, vector space model.

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3658 Adaptation Measures for Sustainable Development of the Agricultural Potential of the Flood-Risk Zones of Ghareb Lowland, Morocco

Authors: R. Bourziza, W. El Khoumsi, I. Mghabbar, I. Rahou

Abstract:

The flood-risk zones called Merjas are lowlands that are flooded during the rainy season. Indeed, these depressed areas were reclaimed to dry them out in order to exploit their agricultural potential. Thus, farmers were able to start exploiting these drained lands. As the development of modern agriculture in Morocco progressed, farmers began to practice irrigated agriculture. In a context of vulnerability to floods and the need for optimal exploitation of the agricultural potential of the flood-risk zones, the question of how farmers are adapting to this context and the degree of exploitation of this potential arises. It is in these circumstances that this work was initiated, aiming at the characterization of irrigation practices in the flood-risk zones of the Ghareb lowland (Morocco). This characterization is based on two main axes: the characterization of irrigation techniques used, as well as the management of irrigation in these areas. In order to achieve our objective, two complementary approaches have been adopted; the first one is based on interviews with administrative agents and on farmer surveys, and the second one is based on field measurements of a few parameters, such as flow rate, pressure, uniformity coefficient of drippers and salinity. The results of this work led to conclude that the choice of the practiced crop (crop resistant to excess water in winter and vegetable crops during other seasons) and the availability and nature of water resources are the main criteria that determine the choice of the irrigation system. Even if irrigation management is imprecise, farmers are able to achieve agricultural yields that are comparable to those recorded in the entire irrigated perimeter. However, agricultural yields in these areas are still threatened by climate change, since these areas play the role of water retaining basins during floods by protecting the downstream areas, which can also damage the crops there instilled during the autumn. This work has also noted that the predominance of private pumping in flood-risk zones in the coastal zone creates a risk of marine intrusion, which risks endangering the groundwater table. Thus, this work enabled us to understand the functioning and the adaptation measures of these vulnerable zones for the sustainability of the Merjas and a better valorization of these marginalized lowlands.

Keywords: Flood-risk zones, irrigation practices, climate change, adaptation measures.

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3657 Fast Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting under High Meteorological Variability with a Multiple Equation Time Series Approach

Authors: Charline David, Alexandre Blondin Massé, Arnaud Zinflou

Abstract:

We present a multiple equation time series approach for the short-term load forecasting applied to the electrical power load consumption for the whole Quebec province, in Canada. More precisely, we take into account three meteorological variables — temperature, cloudiness and wind speed —, and we use meteorological measurements taken at different locations on the territory. Our final model shows an average MAPE score of 1.79% over an 8-years dataset.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, special days, time series, multiple equations, parallelization, clustering.

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