Search results for: forecasting error

Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Minimization methods for training feed-forward networks with Backpropagation are compared. Feedforward network training is a special case of functional minimization, where no explicit model of the data is assumed. Therefore due to the high dimensionality of the data, linearization of the training problem through use of orthogonal basis functions is not desirable. The focus is functional minimization on any basis. A number of methods based on local gradient and Hessian matrices are discussed. Modifications of many methods of first and second order training methods are considered. Using share rates data, experimentally it is proved that Conjugate gradient and Quasi Newton?s methods outperformed the Gradient Descent methods. In case of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is of special interest in financial forecasting.

Keywords: Backpropagation algorithm, conjugacy condition, line search, matrix perturbation

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Authors: Rashid A. Fayadh, F. Malek, Hilal A. Fadhil, Norshafinash Saudin

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At receiving high data rate in ultra wideband (UWB) technology for many users, there are multiple user interference and inter-symbol interference as obstacles in the multi-path reception technique. Since the rake receivers were designed to collect many resolvable paths, even more than hundred of paths. Rake receiver implementation structures have been proposed towards increasing the complexity for getting better performances in indoor or outdoor multi-path receivers by reducing the bit error rate (BER). So several rake structures were proposed in the past to reduce the number of combining and estimating of resolvable paths. To this aim, we suggested two improved rake receivers based on signal sign separation in the maximal ratio combiner (MRC), called positive-negative MRC selective rake (P-N/MRC-S-rake) and positive-negative MRC partial rake (P-N/MRC-S-rake) receivers. These receivers were introduced to reduce the complexity with less number of fingers and improving the performance with low BER. Before decision circuit, there is a comparator to compare between positive quantity and negative quantity to decide whether the transmitted bit is 1 or 0. The BER was driven by MATLAB simulation with multi-path environments for impulse radio time-hopping binary phase shift keying (TH-BPSK) modulation and the results were compared with those of conventional rake receivers.

Keywords: Selective and partial rake receivers, positive and negative signal separation, maximal ratio combiner, bit error rate performance.

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Authors: Othman O. Khalifa, Sheroz khan, Mohamad Zaid, Muhamad Nawawi

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This paper mainly about the study on one of the widely used error correcting codes that is Low parity check Codes (LDPC). In this paper, the Regular LDPC code has been discussed The LDPC codes explained in this paper is about the Regular Binary LDPC codes or the Gallager.

Keywords: LDPC, channel coding.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: János Levendovszky, András Oláh

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In this paper, novel statistical sampling based equalization techniques and CNN based detection are proposed to increase the spectral efficiency of multiuser communication systems over fading channels. Multiuser communication combined with selective fading can result in interferences which severely deteriorate the quality of service in wireless data transmission (e.g. CDMA in mobile communication). The paper introduces new equalization methods to combat interferences by minimizing the Bit Error Rate (BER) as a function of the equalizer coefficients. This provides higher performance than the traditional Minimum Mean Square Error equalization. Since the calculation of BER as a function of the equalizer coefficients is of exponential complexity, statistical sampling methods are proposed to approximate the gradient which yields fast equalization and superior performance to the traditional algorithms. Efficient estimation of the gradient is achieved by using stratified sampling and the Li-Silvester bounds. A simple mechanism is derived to identify the dominant samples in real-time, for the sake of efficient estimation. The equalizer weights are adapted recursively by minimizing the estimated BER. The near-optimal performance of the new algorithms is also demonstrated by extensive simulations. The paper has also developed a (Cellular Neural Network) CNN based approach to detection. In this case fast quadratic optimization has been carried out by t, whereas the task of equalizer is to ensure the required template structure (sparseness) for the CNN. The performance of the method has also been analyzed by simulations.

Keywords: Cellular Neural Network, channel equalization, communication over fading channels, multiuser communication, spectral efficiency, statistical sampling.

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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Authors: V. H. Mankar, T. S. Das, S. K. Sarkar

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In this paper, we have proposed a novel blind watermarking architecture towards its hardware implementation in VLSI. In order to facilitate this hardware realization, cellular automata (CA) concept is introduced. The CA has been already accepted as an attractive structure for VLSI implementation because of its modularity, parallelism, high performance and reliability. The hardware realizable multiresolution spread spectrum watermarking techniques are very few in numbers in spite of their best ever resiliency against signal impairments. This is because of the computational cost and complexity associated with their different filter banks and lifting techniques. The concept of cellular automata theory in order to form a new transform domain technique i.e. Cellular Automata Transform (CAT) have been incorporated. Since CA provides spreading sequences having very low cross-correlation properties, the CA based pseudorandom sequence generator is considered in the present work. Considering the watermarking technique as a digital communication process, an error control coding (ECC) must be incorporated in the data hiding schemes. Besides the hardware implementation of entire CA based data hiding technique, the individual blocks of the algorithm using CA provide the best result than that of some other methods irrespective of the hardware and software technique. The Cellular Automata Transform, CA based PN sequence generator, and CA ECC are the requisite blocks that are developed not only to meet the reliable hardware requirements but also for the basic spread spectrum watermarking features. The proposed algorithm shows statistical invisibility and resiliency against various common signal-processing operations. This algorithmic design utilizes the existing allocated bandwidth in the data transmission channel in a more efficient manner.

Keywords: Cellular automata, watermarking, error control coding, PN sequence, VLSI.

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Authors: Shahana T. K., Babita R. Jose, K. Poulose Jacob, Sreela Sasi

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The modern telecommunication industry demands higher capacity networks with high data rate. Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) is a promising technique for high data rate wireless communications at reasonable complexity in wireless channels. OFDM has been adopted for many types of wireless systems like wireless local area networks such as IEEE 802.11a, and digital audio/video broadcasting (DAB/DVB). The proposed research focuses on a concatenated coding scheme that improve the performance of OFDM based wireless communications. It uses a Redundant Residue Number System (RRNS) code as the outer code and a convolutional code as the inner code. Here, a direct conversion of analog signal to residue domain is done to reduce the conversion complexity using sigma-delta based parallel analog-to-residue converter. The bit error rate (BER) performances of the proposed system under different channel conditions are investigated. These include the effect of additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN), multipath delay spread, peak power clipping and frame start synchronization error. The simulation results show that the proposed RRNS-Convolutional concatenated coding (RCCC) scheme provides significant improvement in the system performance by exploiting the inherent properties of RRNS.

Keywords: Analog-to-residue converter, Concatenated codes, OFDM, Redundant Residue Number System, Sigma-delta modulator, Wireless communication

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Authors: Daohong Yang, Xiang Zhang, Wanting Zhou, Lei Li

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Visual Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (VSLAM) is a technology that gathers information about the surrounding environment to ascertain its own position and create a map. It is widely used in computer vision, robotics, and various other fields. Many visual SLAM systems, such as OBSLAM3, utilize a constant velocity motion model. The utilization of this model facilitates the determination of the initial pose of the current frame, thereby enhancing the efficiency and precision of feature matching. However, it is often difficult to satisfy the constant velocity motion model in actual situations. This can result in a significant deviation between the obtained initial pose and the true value, leading to errors in nonlinear optimization results. Therefore, this paper proposes a motion model based on acceleration that can be applied to most SLAM systems. To provide a more accurate description of the camera pose acceleration, we separate the pose transformation matrix into its rotation matrix and translation vector components. The rotation matrix is now represented by a rotation vector. We assume that, over a short period, the changes in rotating angular velocity and translation vector remain constant. Based on this assumption, the initial pose of the current frame is estimated. In addition, the error of the constant velocity model is analyzed theoretically. Finally, we apply our proposed approach to the ORBSLAM3 system and evaluate two sets of sequences from the TUM datasets. The results show that our proposed method has a more accurate initial pose estimation, resulting in an improvement of 6.61% and 6.46% in the accuracy of the ORBSLAM3 system on the two test sequences, respectively.

Keywords: Error estimation, constant acceleration motion model, pose estimation, visual SLAM.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo, Yu-Ping Liao

Abstract:

Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, models with different social-economic variables, which are oil price, GDP per capita, CPI and economic growth rate, are compared. From the results, the model with the oil price is better than models with the other social-economic variables.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competitive model, social-economic variables, oil price.

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Authors: D. Mirauda, M. Greco, P. Moscarelli

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The river flow forecasting represents a crucial point to employ for improving a management policy addressed to the right use of water resources as well as for conjugating prevention and defense actions against environmental degradation. The difficulties occurring during the field activities encourage the development and implementation of operative computation and measuring methods addressed to time reduction for data acquisition and processing maintaining a good level of accuracy. Therefore, the aim of the present work is to test a new entropy based expeditive methodology for the evaluation of the rating curves on three gauged sections with different geometric and morphological characteristics. The methodology requires the choice of only three verticals along the measure section and the sampling of only the maximum velocity. The results underline how in most conditions the rating curves drawn can replace those built with classic methodologies, simplifying thus the procedures of data monitoring and calculation.

Keywords: gauged station, entropic approach, expeditive methodology, rating curves.

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Authors: Syeda Maria Ali Shah, Asif Mansoor, Talat Sharafat Rehmani, Safia Mirza

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The stock market of any country acts as a predictor of the economy. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted the global financial markets. Besides, it has also critically affected the economy of Pakistan. In this study, we consider the role of the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) with regard to the Pakistan Stock Exchange and quantify the impact on macroeconomic variables in presence of COVID-19. The suitable macroeconomic variables are used to quantify the impact of COVID-19 by developing the stochastic model. The sufficiency of the computed model is attained by means of available techniques in the literature. The estimated equations are used to forecast the impact of pandemic on macroeconomic variables. The constructed model can help the policymakers take counteractive measures for restricting the influence of viruses on the Karachi Stock Market.

Keywords: COVID-19, Karachi Stock Market, macroeconomic variables, stochastic model, forecasting.

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Authors: M. A. Torkamani, S. Mahmoodzadeh, S. Pourroostaei, C. Lucas

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Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.

Keywords: Chaos, Exchange Rate, Nonlinear Models.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Abutheraa, David Lester

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We show that Chebyshev Polynomials are a practical representation of computable functions on the computable reals. The paper presents error estimates for common operations and demonstrates that Chebyshev Polynomial methods would be more efficient than Taylor Series methods for evaluation of transcendental functions.

Keywords: Approximation Theory, Chebyshev Polynomial, Computable Functions, Computable Real Arithmetic, Integration, Numerical Analysis.

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Authors: O. O. Obe, V. Balanica, E. Neagoe

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The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: Neural Network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning.

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Pushpinder Singh, Parampreet Kaur, Amarpreet Kaur

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Ranking of fuzzy numbers play an important role in decision making, optimization, forecasting etc. Fuzzy numbers must be ranked before an action is taken by a decision maker. In this paper, with the help of several counter examples it is proved that ranking method proposed by Chen and Chen (Expert Systems with Applications 36 (2009) 6833-6842) is incorrect. The main aim of this paper is to propose a new approach for the ranking of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that the proposed approach provide the correct ordering of generalized and normal trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and also the proposed approach is very simple and easy to apply in the real life problems. It is shown that proposed ranking function satisfies all the reasonable properties of fuzzy quantities proposed by Wang and Kerre (Fuzzy Sets and Systems 118 (2001) 375-385).

Keywords: Ranking function, Generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

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Authors: Rudy Bahouth, Farouk Benmeddour, Emmanuel Moulin, Jamal Assaad

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Guided ultrasonic waves are used in Non-Destructive Testing and Structural Health Monitoring for inspection and damage detection. Recently, wireless data transmission using ultrasonic waves in solid metallic channels has gained popularity in some industrial applications such as nuclear, aerospace and smart vehicles. The idea is to find a good substitute for electromagnetic waves since they are highly attenuated near metallic components due to Faraday shielding. The proposed solution is to use ultrasonic guided waves such as Lamb waves as an information carrier due to their capability of propagation for long distances. In addition to this, valuable information about the health of the structure could be extracted simultaneously. In this work, the reliable frequency bandwidth for communication is extracted experimentally from dispersion curves at first. Then, an experimental platform for wireless communication using Lamb waves is described and built. After this, coherent demodulation algorithm used in telecommunications is tested for Amplitude Shift Keying, On-Off Keying and Binary Phase Shift Keying modulation techniques. Signal processing parameters such as threshold choice, number of cycles per bit and Bit Rate are optimized. Experimental results are compared based on the average bit error percentage. Results has shown high sensitivity to threshold selection for Amplitude Shift Keying and On-Off Keying techniques resulting a Bit Rate decrease. Binary Phase Shift Keying technique shows the highest stability and data rate between all tested modulation techniques.

Keywords: Lamb Wave Communication, wireless communication, coherent demodulation, bit error percentage.

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Authors: Mohammad R. Kavian Nezhad, Carlos F. Lange, Brian A. Fleck

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This research presents the validation study of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the scalar dispersion emitted from rooftop sources around the buildings at the University of Alberta North Campus. The ANSYS CFX code was used to perform the numerical simulation of the wind regime and pollutant dispersion by solving the 3D steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations on a building-scale high-resolution grid. The validation study was performed in two steps. First, the CFD model performance in 24 cases (eight wind directions and three wind speeds) was evaluated by comparing the predicted flow fields with the available data from the previous measurement campaign designed at the North Campus, using the standard deviation method (SDM), while the estimated results of the numerical model showed maximum average percent errors of approximately 53% and 37% for wind incidents from the North and Northwest, respectively. Good agreement with the measurements was observed for the other six directions, with an average error of less than 30%. In the second step, the reliability of the implemented turbulence model, numerical algorithm, modeling techniques, and the grid generation scheme was further evaluated using the Mock Urban Setting Test (MUST) dispersion dataset. Different statistical measures, including the fractional bias (FB), the mean geometric bias (MG), and the normalized mean square error (NMSE), were used to assess the accuracy of the predicted dispersion field. Our CFD results are in very good agreement with the field measurements.

Keywords: CFD, plume dispersion, complex urban geometry, validation study, wind flow.

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Muhammad Arslan Usman, Muhammad Rehan Usman, Soo Young Shin

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Live video streaming is one of the most widely used service among end users, yet it is a big challenge for the network operators in terms of quality. The only way to provide excellent Quality of Experience (QoE) to the end users is continuous monitoring of live video streaming. For this purpose, there are several objective algorithms available that monitor the quality of the video in a live stream. Subjective tests play a very important role in fine tuning the results of objective algorithms. As human perception is considered to be the most reliable source for assessing the quality of a video stream subjective tests are conducted in order to develop more reliable objective algorithms. Temporal impairments in a live video stream can have a negative impact on the end users. In this paper we have conducted subjective evaluation tests on a set of video sequences containing temporal impairment known as frame freezing. Frame Freezing is considered as a transmission error as well as a hardware error which can result in loss of video frames on the reception side of a transmission system. In our subjective tests, we have performed tests on videos that contain a single freezing event and also for videos that contain multiple freezing events. We have recorded our subjective test results for all the videos in order to give a comparison on the available No Reference (NR) objective algorithms. Finally, we have shown the performance of no reference algorithms used for objective evaluation of videos and suggested the algorithm that works better. The outcome of this study shows the importance of QoE and its effect on human perception. The results for the subjective evaluation can serve the purpose for validating objective algorithms.

Keywords: Objective evaluation, subjective evaluation, quality of experience (QoE), video quality assessment (VQA).

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Authors: M. Erol Genevois, D. Celik, H. Z. Ulukan

Abstract:

Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) can be considered among one of the most important service facilities in the banking industry. The investment in ATMs and the impact on the banking industry is growing steadily in every part of the world. The banks take into consideration many factors like safety, convenience, visibility, and cost in order to determine the optimum locations of ATMs. Today, ATMs are not only available in bank branches but also at retail locations. Another important factor is the cash management in ATMs. A cash demand model for every ATM is needed in order to have an efficient cash management system. This forecasting model is based on historical cash demand data which is highly related to the ATMs location. So, the location and the cash management problem should be considered together. This paper provides a general review on studies, efforts and development in ATMs location and cash management problem.

Keywords: ATM location problem, cash management problem, ATM cash replenishment problem, literature review in ATMs.

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Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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Authors: Mohammad ALAmro

Abstract:

The most crucial aspect that is closely related to vocabulary and the one that needs to be emphasized and investigated more than it has been up until now, is the ability to combine words that co-occur frequently in the language. Pedagogically, collocation is one of the error-provoking aspects in foreign language learning. This is indicative of the dire need to provide L2 learners with tools to help them improve their collocational knowledge. This paper pinpoints the role that collocations play in the English language. Furthermore, it presents pedagogical implications for ESL/EFL learners.

Keywords: Collocation, pedagogy, vocabulary knowledge.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, Amina Khunji

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Detecting changes in multiple images of the same scene has recently seen increased interest due to the many contemporary applications including smart security systems, smart homes, remote sensing, surveillance, medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, speed and distance measurement, post-disaster forensics and much more. These applications differ in the scale, nature, and speed of change. This paper presents an application of image processing techniques to implement a real-time change detection system. Change is identified by comparing the RGB representation of two consecutive frames captured in real-time. The detection threshold can be controlled to account for various luminance levels. The comparison result is passed through a filter before decision making to reduce false positives, especially at lower luminance conditions. The system is implemented with a MATLAB Graphical User interface with several controls to manage its operation and performance.

Keywords: Image change detection, Image processing, image filtering, thresholding, B/W quantization.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R²) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: Time series modelling, ARIMA model, River runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method.

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Authors: E. Yosry, W. Fikry, A. El-henawy, M. Marzouk

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This work offers a study of new simple compact model of dual-drain Magnetic Field Effect Transistor (MAGFET) including geometrical effects and biasing dependency. An explanation of the sensitivity is investigated, involving carrier deflection as the dominant operating principle. Finally, model verification with simulation results is introduced to ensure that acceptable error of 2% is achieved.

Keywords: MAGFET, Modeling, Simulation, Split-drain.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

Abstract:

This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: Compound growth rate, fisheries education, Holt method, skilled human capital.

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