Search results for: extreme event

Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even-dough decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also fund that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power)above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: Probability, Stochastic, Probability density function, Turbulence.

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Authors: Zhibo Xiao, Tharini Nayanika de Silva, Kezhi Mao

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an evolving knowledge extraction system named AKEOS (Automatic Knowledge Extraction from Online Sources). AKEOS consists of two modules, including a one-time learning module and an evolving learning module. The one-time learning module takes in user input query, and automatically harvests knowledge from online unstructured resources in an unsupervised way. The output of the one-time learning is a structured vector representing the harvested knowledge. The evolving learning module automatically schedules and performs repeated one-time learning to extract the newest information and track the development of an event. In addition, the evolving learning module summarizes the knowledge learned at different time points to produce a final knowledge vector about the event. With the evolving learning, we are able to visualize the key information of the event, discover the trends, and track the development of an event.

Keywords: Evolving learning, knowledge extraction, knowledge graph, text mining.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi, Mojtaba Mahdavi

Abstract:

This paper tries to represent a new method for computing the reliability of a system which is arranged in series or parallel model. In this method we estimate life distribution function of whole structure using the asymptotic Extreme Value (EV) distribution of Type I, or Gumbel theory. We use EV distribution in minimal mode, for estimate the life distribution function of series structure and maximal mode for parallel system. All parameters also are estimated by Moments method. Reliability function and failure (hazard) rate and p-th percentile point of each function are determined. Other important indexes such as Mean Time to Failure (MTTF), Mean Time to repair (MTTR), for non-repairable and renewal systems in both of series and parallel structure will be computed.

Keywords: Reliability, extreme value, parallel, series, lifedistribution

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Authors: Gabi Nehme

Abstract:

The relationship between different types of Molybdenum disulfide greases under extreme pressure loading and different speed situations have been studied using Design of Experiment (DOE) under 1200rpm steady state rotational speed and cyclic frequencies between 2400 and 1200rpm using a Plint machine software to set up the different rotational speed situations.  Research described here is aimed at providing good friction and wear performance while optimizing cyclic frequencies and MoS2 concentration due to the recent concern about grease behavior in extreme pressure applications. Extreme load of 785 Newton was used in conjunction with different cyclic frequencies (2400rpm -3.75min, 1200rpm -7.5min, 2400rpm -3.75min, 1200rpm -7.5min), to examine lithium based grease with and without MoS2 for equal number of revolutions, and a total run of 36000 revolutions; then compared to 1200rpm steady speed for the same total number of revolutions. 4 Ball wear tester was utilized to run large number of experiments randomly selected by the DOE software. The grease was combined with fine grade MoS2 or technical grade then heated to 750C and the wear scar width was collected at the end of each test. DOE model validation results verify that the data were very significant and can be applied to a wide range of extreme pressure applications. Based on simulation results and Scanning Electron images (SEM), it has been found that wear was largely dependent on the cyclic frequency condition. It is believed that technical grade MoS2 greases under faster cyclic speeds perform better and provides antiwear film that can resist extreme pressure loadings. Figures showed reduced wear scars width and improved frictional values.

 

Keywords: MoS2 grease, wear, friction, extreme load, cyclic frequencies, aircraft grade bearing.

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Authors: Charmaine du Plessis

Abstract:

Arguments on a popular microblogging site were analysed by means of a methodological approach to business rhetoric focusing on the logos communication technique. The focus of the analysis was the 100 day countdown to the 2011 Rugby World Cup as advanced by the organisers. Big sporting events provide an attractive medium for sport event marketers in that they have become important strategic communication tools directed at sport consumers. Sport event marketing is understood in the sense of using a microblogging site as a communication tool whose purpose it is to disseminate a company-s marketing messages by involving the target audience in experiential activities. Sport creates a universal language in that it excites and increases the spread of information by word of mouth and other means. The findings highlight the limitations of a microblogging site in terms of marketing messages which can assist in better practices. This study can also serve as a heuristic tool for other researchers analysing sports marketing messages in social network environments.

Keywords: communication technique, microblogging, rhetoric, social networking, sport event marketing

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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Authors: Rado Flajs

Abstract:

In the present paper the extreme shear stresses with the corresponding planes are established using the freely available computer tools like the Gnuplot, Sage, R, Python and Octave. In order to support these freely available computer tools, their strong symbolical and graphical abilities are illustrated. The nature of the stationary points obtained by the Method of Lagrangian Multipliers can be determined using freely available computer symbolical tools like Sage. The characters of the stationary points can be explained in the easiest way using freely available computer graphical tools like Gnuplot, Sage, R, Python and Octave. The presented figures improve the understanding of the problem and the obtained solutions for the majority of students of civil or mechanical engineering.

Keywords: engineering, continuum mechanics, extreme shear stresses, Gnuplot, Sage, R, Python, Octave

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Authors: Anwar Sadat

Abstract:

Today, the Internet based communication has widen the opportunity of event monitoring system in the medical field. There is always a need of analyzing and designing secure and reliable mobile communication between the hospital and biomedical engineers mobile units. This study has been carried out to find possible solution using SIP-based event notification for alerting the technical staff about the Biomedical Device (BMD) status and Patients treatment session. The Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) can be used to create a medical event notification system. SIP can work on a variety of devices. Its adoption as the protocol of choice for third generation wireless networks allows for a robust and scalable environment. One of the advantages of SIP is that it supports personal mobility through the separation of user addressing and device addressing. The solution for Telemed alert notification system is based on SIP - Specific Event Notification. The aim of this project is to extend mobility service to the hospital technicians who are using Telemedicine system.

Keywords: Biomedical, Mobility Service, Notify, Proxy Server, SIP, Subscribe, Telemedicine.

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Authors: C. Y. Chen

Abstract:

As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Ioannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece’s deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs’ resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioural responses and experiences, can feed into: a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: Flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organisational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study.

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Authors: Th. Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

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Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analyzed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on Z^DIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, Serial correlation, Mann Kendall test.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

Abstract:

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

With advancements in science and technology, the concept of the Internet of Things (IoT) has gradually developed. The development of the intelligent environment adds intelligence to objects in the living space by using the IoT. In the smart environment, when multiple users share the living space, if different service requirements from different users arise, then the context-aware system will have conflicting situations for making decisions about providing services. Therefore, the purpose of establishing a communication and negotiation mechanism among objects in the intelligent environment is to resolve those service conflicts among users. This study proposes developing a decision-making methodology that uses “Event Agents” as its core. When the sensor system receives information, it evaluates a user’s current events and conditions; analyses object, location, time, and environmental information; calculates the priority of the object; and provides the user services based on the event. Moreover, when the event is not single but overlaps with another, conflicts arise. This study adopts the “Multiple Events Correlation Matrix” in order to calculate the degree values of incidents and support values for each object. The matrix uses these values as the basis for making inferences for system service, and to further determine appropriate services when there is a conflict.

Keywords: Internet of things, intelligent object, event agents, negotiation mechanism, degree of similarity.

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Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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Authors: Mwafak Shakoor

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to reduce patient waiting times, improve system throughput and improve resources utilization in radiology department. A discrete event simulation model was developed using Arena simulation software to investigate different alternatives to improve the overall system delivery based on adding resource scenarios due to the linkage between patient waiting times and resource availability. The study revealed that there is no addition investment need to procure additional scanner but hospital management deploy managerial tactics to enhance machine utilization and reduce the long waiting time in the department.

Keywords: Arena, Computed Tomography (CT), Discrete event simulation, Healthcare modeling, Radiology department, Waiting time.

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Authors: Seokbeen Lim, KyeongSeok Sim, DaKyeong Shin, Gilwon Yoon

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Event-related potential (ERP) is one of the useful tools for investigating cognitive reactions. In this study, the potential of ERP components detected after auditory and visual stimuli was examined. Subjects were asked to respond upon stimuli that were of three categories; Target, Non-Target and Standard stimuli. The ERP after stimulus was measured. In the experiment of visual evoked potentials (VEPs), the subjects were asked to gaze at a center point on the monitor screen where the stimuli were provided by the reversal pattern of the checkerboard. In consequence of the VEP experiments, we observed consistent reactions. Each peak voltage could be measured when the ensemble average was applied. Visual stimuli had smaller amplitude and a longer latency compared to that of auditory stimuli. The amplitude was the highest with Target and the smallest with Standard in both stimuli.

Keywords: Auditory stimulus, EEG, event related potential, oddball task, visual stimulus.

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Authors: Hesam Mahzoon

Abstract:

By using the two existing operators, we have defined an operator, which is an extension for them. In this paper, first the operator is introduced. Then, using this operator, the subclasses of multivalent functions are defined. These subclasses of multivalent functions are utilized in order to obtain coefficient inequalities, extreme points, and integral means inequalities for functions belonging to these classes.

Keywords: Coefficient inequalities, extreme points, integral means, multivalent functions, Al-Oboudi operator, and Sãlãgean operator.

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Authors: Noriko Hanakawa, Masaki Obana

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A simulation tool is proposed for big-scale projection mapping events. The tool has four main functions based on Mapbox and Unity utilities. The first function is building three-dimensional models of real cities using Mapbox. The second function is movie projections to some buildings in real cities using Unity. The third is a movie sending function from a PC to a virtual projector. The fourth function is mapping movies with fitting buildings. The simulation tool was adapted to a real projection mapping event held in 2019. The event completed, but it faced a severe problem in the movie projection to the target building. Extra tents were set in front of the target building, and the tents became obstacles to the movie projection. The simulation tool developed herein could reconstruct the problems of the event. Therefore, if the simulation tool was developed before the 2019 projection mapping event, the problem of the tents being obstacles could have been avoided using the tool. Moreover, we confirmed that the simulation tool is useful for planning future projection mapping events to avoid various extra equipment obstacles, such as utility poles, planting trees, and monument towers.

Keywords: avoiding obstacles, projection mapping, projector position, real 3D map

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Authors: Ayesha Zaman, Tanvir Atahary, Shahida Rafiq

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Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging(fMRI) is a noninvasive imaging technique that measures the hemodynamic response related to neural activity in the human brain. Event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (efMRI) is a form of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) in which a series of fMRI images are time-locked to a stimulus presentation and averaged together over many trials. Again an event related potential (ERP) is a measured brain response that is directly the result of a thought or perception. Here the neuronal response of human visual cortex in normal healthy patients have been studied. The patients were asked to perform a visual three choice reaction task; from the relative response of each patient corresponding neuronal activity in visual cortex was imaged. The average number of neurons in the adult human primary visual cortex, in each hemisphere has been estimated at around 140 million. Statistical analysis of this experiment was done with SPM5(Statistical Parametric Mapping version 5) software. The result shows a robust design of imaging the neuronal activity of human visual cortex.

Keywords: Echo Planner Imaging, Event related Response, General Linear Model, Visual Neuronal Response.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.

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Authors: D. Nebbali, R. Nebbali, A. Ouibrahim

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This study focuses on the cooling of a photovoltaic panel (PV). Indeed, the cooling improves the conversion capacity of this one and maintains, under extreme conditions of air temperature, the panel temperature at an appreciable level which avoids the altering. To do this, a fan provides forced circulation of air. Because the fan is supplied by the panel, it is necessary to determine the optimum operating point that unites efficiency of the PV with the consumption of the fan. For this matter, numerical simulations are performed at varying mass flow rates of air, under two extreme air temperatures (50°C, 25°C) and a fixed solar radiation (1000W.m2) in a case of no wind.

Keywords: Energy conversion, efficiency, balance energy, solar cell.

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Authors: Bernd Scholz-Reiter, Christian Toonen, Jan Topi Tervo, Dennis Lappe

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Time series analysis often requires data that represents the evolution of an observed variable in equidistant time steps. In order to collect this data sampling is applied. While continuous signals may be sampled, analyzed and reconstructed applying Shannon-s sampling theorem, time-discrete signals have to be dealt with differently. In this article we consider the discrete-event simulation (DES) of job-shop-systems and study the effects of different sampling rates on data quality regarding completeness and accuracy of reconstructed inventory evolutions. At this we discuss deterministic as well as non-deterministic behavior of system variables. Error curves are deployed to illustrate and discuss the sampling rate-s impact and to derive recommendations for its wellfounded choice.

Keywords: discrete-event simulation, job-shop-system, sampling rate.

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Authors: Mohammad Bsoul, Iain Phillips, Chris Hinde

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This paper is concerned with the design and implementation of MICOSim, an event-driven simulator written in Java for evaluating the performance of Grid entities (users, brokers and resources) under different scenarios such as varying the numbers of users, resources and brokers and varying their specifications and employed strategies.

Keywords: Grid computing, Economic Scheduling, Simulation, Event-Driven, Java.

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Authors: Helder Adão, Rui Antunes, Frederico Grilo

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This paper describes the project and development of a very low-cost and small electronic prototype, especially designed for monitoring and controlling existing home automation alarm systems (intruder, smoke, gas, flood, etc.), via TCP/IP, with a typical web browser. Its use will allow home owners to be immediately alerted and aware when an alarm event occurs, and being also able to interact with their home automation alarm system, disarming, arming and watching event alerts, with a personal wireless Wi-Fi PDA or smartphone logged on to a dedicated predefined web page, and using also a PC or Laptop.

Keywords: Alarm Systems, Home Automation, Web-Server, TCP/IP.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent event data is a special type of multivariate survival data. Dynamic and frailty models are one of the approaches that dealt with this kind of data. A comparison between these two models is studied using the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes as a way of assessing the fit of the two models based on the Aalen additive regression model. Here we found both approaches took heterogeneity into account and produce residual standard deviations close to each other both in the simulation study and in the real data set.

Keywords: Dynamic, frailty, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Kyoko Tominaga

Abstract:

Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Non-Profit Organizations (NPOs), Social Enterprises and other actors play an important role in political decisions in governments at the international levels. Especially, such organizations’ and activists’ network in civil society is quite important to effect to the global politics. To solve the complex social problems in global era, diverse actors should corporate each other. Moreover, network of protesters is also contributes to diffuse tactics, information and other resources of social movements.

Based on the findings from the study of International Trade Fairs (ITFs), the author analyzes the network of activists in anti-globalism movement. This research focuses the transition of 54 activists’ whole network in the “protest event” against 2008 G8 summit in Japan. Their network is examined at the three periods: Before protest event phase, during protest event phase and after event phase. A mixed method is used in this study: the author shows the hypothesis from social network analysis and evaluates that with interview data analysis. This analysis gives the two results. Firstly, the more protesters participate to the various events during the protest event, the more they build the network. After that, active protesters keep their network as well. From interview data, we can understand that the active protesters can build their network and diffuse the information because they communicate with other participants and understand that diverse issues are related. This paper comes to same conclusion with previous researches: protest events activate the network among the political activists. However, some participants succeed to build their network, others do not. “Networked” activists are participated in the various events for short period of time and encourage the diffusion of information and tactics of social movements.

Keywords: Social Movement, Global Justice Movement, Tactics, Diffusion.

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Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

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In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahdavi, Mohamad Mahdavi, Maryam Yazdani

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A heuristic conceptual model for to develop the Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), especially in preventive strategy, has been explored during this paper. In most real cases which complicity of system obligates high degree of reliability, this model proposes a more appropriate reliability function between life time distribution based and another which is based on relevant Extreme Value (EV) distribution. A statistical and mathematical approach is used to estimate and verify these two distribution functions. Then best one is chosen just among them, whichever is more reliable. A numeric Industrial case study will be reviewed to represent the concepts of this paper, more clearly.

Keywords: Lifetime distribution, Reliability, Estimation, Extreme value, Improving model, Series, Parallel.

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